Van 0 Report post Posted August 12, 2015 So it looks like the major indices, after spending the last 12 months churning to marginal new highs, have finally turned down. More importantly, the internals have begun to break down. DJIA 17,200. Discussion: Are the Weinstein indicators saying Bull or Bear? http://www.alltimehighstocks.com/p/weinstein-indicators-bull-bear-markets.html 1. SPY stage analysis: NEUTRAL (moving to bear soon?) http://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/kaavio.Webhost/charts/big.chart?nosettings=1&symb=SPY&uf=0&type=64&size=2&sid=9864&style=320&freq=2&time=9&rand=418254556&compidx=aaaaa%3a0&ma=1&maval=30&lf=1&lf2=0&lf3=0&height=335&width=579&mocktick=1 2. $NYAD http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$NYAD&p=W&b=5&g=0&id=p07313556463 divergence - BEAR. 3. Internal Market Momentum: BULL (still just) http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$NYAD&p=D&b=5&g=0&id=p50395118458 4. New highs vs New Lows http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$NYHL&p=W&b=5&g=0&id=p77082224047 below zero - BEAR 5. World markets - BEAR http://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/kaavio.Webhost/charts/big.chart?nosettings=1&symb=VEU&uf=0&type=64&size=2&sid=2635545&style=320&freq=2&time=9&rand=88629616&compidx=aaaaa%3a0&ma=1&maval=30&lf=1&lf2=0&lf3=0&height=335&width=579&mocktick=1 6. Lead Stock AAPL - BEAR http://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/kaavio.Webhost/charts/big.chart?nosettings=1&symb=AAPL&uf=0&type=64&size=2&sid=609&style=320&freq=2&time=9&rand=556887658&compidx=aaaaa%3a0&ma=1&maval=30&lf=1&lf2=0&lf3=0&height=335&width=579&mocktick=1 7. Price:Dividend ratio - BEAR http://www.multpl.com/s-p-500-dividend-yield/ (although I question the usefulness of this indicator nowadays) 8. Herd sentiment - NEUTRAL http://www.aaii.com/sentimentsurvey Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Van 0 Report post Posted August 12, 2015 The phrase "The great 2009-2015 bull market" looks increasingly like taking it's place in the history books. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
drbubb 0 Report post Posted August 12, 2015 Tony C still seems to think we could see new highs in the months to come. His Buy Target is SPX-2040, and i may take profits (on Puts) if we get there in the next day or two The Bradley model called the May/June high effectively (so far) Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Van 0 Report post Posted August 12, 2015 Gary Savage thinks there is a strong possibility of an outright collapse in stocks over the next few weeks: http://blog.smartmoneytrackerpremium.com/2015/08/crash-potential-over-the-next-3-4-weeks-possible-final-low-in-gold.html Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Van 0 Report post Posted August 12, 2015 What the opposite of a Golden cross? http://www.marketwatch.com/story/dow-death-cross-is-a-bearish-omen-for-the-stock-market-2015-08-11?siteid=bigcharts&dist=bigcharts Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
notanewmember 0 Report post Posted August 12, 2015 I think the markets can go either way - it's just pausing for breath after a nice run. Not a bubble blow off top or overbought that's my opinion. But we might see a correction. I have my stops, and not gone so long that I can't sleep at night. Most people are off on their holidays now - so that is probably why there is a pause. The most volatile months are September and October, I believe, so no need to panic just yet. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
drbubb 0 Report post Posted August 12, 2015 A Major Cause of the Financial Crisis Is Making a ComebackOne of the biggest causes of the financial crisis is back.Subprime lending is surging.Subprime loans are made to people with bad credit. They’re riskier than traditional loans. Lenders charge higher interest rates on subprime loans to compensate for the higher risk.Subprime lending exploded in the early-to-mid-2000s and fueled the housing bubble. When people couldn’t pay back these expensive loans, the housing market crashed.It sparked the biggest financial crisis since the Great Depression…and almost took down the whole US financial system.• The subprime mortgage market is almost dead…Subprime loans account for just 0.25% of the mortgage market today…down from 26% in 2006.Banks have mostly gotten out of the subprime mortgage businesses. New regulations make it difficult for banks to make subprime loans.• …But subprime lending is making a comeback.Lenders aren’t giving people subprime loans to buy houses much anymore. Instead, they’re giving subprime loans to people to buy cars… and to buy stuff on their credit cards.The Wall Street Journal reports that subprime auto and credit card lending has surged to its highest level since before the financial crisis.…[M]ore than one-third of all auto, credit card and personal loans from the start of January to the end of April went to subprime borrowers, according to the latest available data from credit-reporting firm Equifax Inc. That is the highest percentage since 2007.Lenders made 53.7 million auto, credit card and personal loans in the first four months of 2015, up 46% from 2010.Subprime auto loans are growing fastest... (received by email) Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
drbubb 0 Report post Posted August 13, 2015 Nicole Elliott, who has made some good calls on the market... Has put a chart in today's SCMP business section, with this title: Chart of the day: Bearish pressure on the Dow - pg.B2 INDU "Downside pressure this week saw bearish momentum increase on all US indices, although none were oversold. More importantly, it set off a death cross (50-d MA below the 200-d MA) on the Dow Industrials, which joins... DJTA : The Dow Transports which crossed in March. Not the end of the world since it might cross back to bullish like... DJUA : The Dow Utilities has done. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
drbubb 0 Report post Posted August 13, 2015 If you want to use Crossovers as indicators, careful observation is critical ... update : 2yrs OTHER 10 year charts : SPY : IWM : XLF : DJTA (will comment later) Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Van 0 Report post Posted August 19, 2015 The US markets are holding up admirably, but it's carnage elsewhere. On it's 7th consecutive downday, if the FTSE takes out the 6430 July low level then it could quickly collapse. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Van 0 Report post Posted August 19, 2015 S&P500 companies are under revenue pressure. It will only be a matter of time before the cycle is complete and profits turn to losses. http://www.marketwatch.com/story/sp-500-heads-for-first-revenue-recession-since-the-great-recession-2015-08-18 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
drbubb 0 Report post Posted August 19, 2015 The US markets are holding up admirably, but it's carnage elsewhere. On it's 7th consecutive downday, if the FTSE takes out the 6430 July low level then it could quickly collapse. I agree - it looks like FTSE is at a key level now : FTSE : 6,469.27 -57.02 : -0.87% Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Van 0 Report post Posted August 19, 2015 FTSE closed at 6403. Looks hugely vulnerable to further downside now. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Van 0 Report post Posted August 20, 2015 FTSE closed at 6403. Looks hugely vulnerable to further downside now. Follow-through today, down to 6370 now. While I expect a short-term bounce, the long term downtrend is now firmly established. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Van 0 Report post Posted August 20, 2015 Ugly close for the US markets. A lot of technical damage done today. The bear is growling. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
notanewmember 0 Report post Posted August 21, 2015 Alright you win, it's starting to look ugly. The FTSE all share is not far from making a 2 year new low. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Van 0 Report post Posted August 21, 2015 now into it's 9th day, this is the 2nd longest losing streak in FTSE histry. http://www.cityam.com/222721/ftse-100-slides-correction-territory Surely a bounce is due? (I have gone long!) Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
wolf 0 Report post Posted August 21, 2015 A more obvious point for it to bounce off is around 6200, not that it has to do the obvious.......... Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
notanewmember 0 Report post Posted August 21, 2015 I am out of everything now in my trading account, and sitting on cash which cost me the dealing charges, and locked in a small profit. I don't like the VIX which is upto 24. I follow Dan Zangers twitter as well, and he's in 92% cash right now - so he must be onto a good thing. I had a nice littlevwindfall from the Labour election as well.The world can go to hell in a hand basket now. Good luck in playing any bounces, I'll be watching strictly on the sidelines. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Van 0 Report post Posted August 24, 2015 European markets gapped down 3% on opening. Let's see if it's an intermediate bottom. Today should be interesting one way or another. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Van 0 Report post Posted August 24, 2015 I'm pretty certain from conversations I'm having with average-joes, and the generally defiant "we'll bounce back" tone of the press that we HAVE seen the top now and that, short-term bounces aside, we are certainly heading much, much lower. It's tradition that a new Fed chair has a crisis in their 1st year or 2.. I think that pattern is now playing out again. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Van 0 Report post Posted August 24, 2015 Is this Yellen's big test? **** If you believe in omens, the this sort of thing happens whenever a new Fed chair comes in:Volcker: entered office 1979, forced to raise rates to 20%+ shortly after Greenspan: entered office Aug 1987, => Oct 87 crashBernanke: entered office 2006, Financial crisis began 2007, cumulated in 2008-09 meltdownYellen: enter office 2014... next crisis is in the post? http://www.cnbc.com/2013/12/04/beware-the-curse-of-the-new-federal-reserve-chair.html ""You could have safely sat out the first three years of Volcker, Greenspan, and Bernanke's respective tenures and made all/even more of the market's return in the remainder of their time on the job." => start buying equities in 2017? Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
wolf 0 Report post Posted August 24, 2015 Yeh - but since 2008, the Fed's priority has been to protect the stock market. The fat cats won't want to change that. Already plenty of calls to rule out Sept rate hike "in order to protect investors". Economic reality is only a side issue nowadays. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
wolf 0 Report post Posted August 24, 2015 Impossible to make sense of today if one is an investor and not a trader. I dread to think how many retail investors ran for the hills today and sold off their holdings to the traders who promptly sent the price right back up again. Tomorrow, they'll probably short it all again . Unless th ordinary man in the street understands that the markets are now controlled by short-term traders they won't stand a chance. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
drbubb 0 Report post Posted August 24, 2015 Some big HF's and institutional investors using STOPS will have been hit today also Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
