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cgnao

WED JUL 8 18:46:08 UTC 2015

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http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-09-30/nothing-happening-everything-awesome-crowd

 

For The "Nothing Is Happening... Everything Is Awesome" Crowd

 

.... some very important things did happen in September.

 

..... we are witnessing the most significant global financial meltdown since the end of 2008. All of the largest stock markets in the world are crashing simultaneously, and so far the amount of wealth that has been wiped out worldwide is in excess of 5 trillion dollars.

 

I honestly do not understand the “nothing is happening” crowd. It takes ignorance on an almost unbelievable level to try to claim that “nothing is happening” in the financial world right now.

 

The global financial system is now beginning to unravel, and any piece of major bad news will likely accelerate things.

I gotta say I'm not really in the "something is happening" crowd.

no real difference to me if prices rise 100% or fall 50%

I'd have a lot more respect for "something is happening" crowd if they got this "excited" when the Shanghai Composite rose like 300% in the space of a few months.

It's still up like 50% YoY, and its a only just starting to be a "global" market.

http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/04/20/us-china-exchange-software-idUSKBN0NB0ZS20150420

 

This kind of thing is pretty normal for an immature market growing faster than it was designed for.

 

My version of the "something is happening" is the same as it was over a decade a go.

We're hitting a globally ageing population who will withdraw more from the finance system than the young ones put in. All the fraud and bullshit the boomers have been feeding themselves with was just that, fraud and bullshit. And the next generation "can't pay won't pay".

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"

As I warned about ahead of time, we are witnessing the most significant global financial meltdown since the end of 2008. All of the largest stock markets in the world are crashing simultaneously, and so far the amount of wealth that has been wiped out worldwide is in excess of 5 trillion dollars.

In addition to stocks, junk bonds are also crashing, and Bank of America says that it is a “slow moving trainwreck that seems to be accelerating“. Thanks to the commodity price crash, many of the largest commodity traders on the planet are now imploding. I wrote about the death spiral that has gripped Glencore yesterday. On Tuesday, the stock price of the largest commodity trader in Asia, the Noble Group, plummeted like a rock and commodity trading giant Trafigura appears to be in worse shape than either Glencore or the Noble Group. The total collapse of any of them could easily be a bigger event than the implosion of Lehman Brothers in 2008. So I honestly do not understand the “nothing is happening” crowd. It takes ignorance on an almost unbelievable level to try to claim that “nothing is happening” in the financial world right now."

 

Within the last 60 days, we have seen some things happen that we have never seen before.

For example, did you know that we witnessed the greatest intraday stock market crash in U.S. history on August 24th?

During that day, the Dow Jones Industrial Average plunged from a high of 16,459.75 to a low of 15,370.33 before rebounding substantially. That intraday point swing of 1,089 points was the largest in all of U.S. history.

Overall, the Dow has down 588.40 points that day. When you combine that decline with the 530.94 point plunge from the previous Friday, you get a total drop of 1119.34 points over two consecutive trading days. Never before in history had the Dow fallen by more than 500 points on two trading days in a row.

> http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-09-30/nothing-happening-everything-awesome-crowd

 

(I noted the Dow move at the time- Big on POINTS, but not a big deal on percentages moved.)

 

I dunno.

So far, many of these stock moves look like Corrections, rather than crashes.

Maybe we had a final purge in some of the oversold commodity stocks.

 

It is possible we will now see a rally to new highs in general US stock indicies - as Tony Caldaro has been writing about.

The Bears may have their day later, maybe starting in 2016

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I dunno.

So far, many of these stock moves look like Corrections, rather than crashes.

Maybe we had a final purge in some of the oversold commodity stocks.

 

It is possible we will now see a rally to new highs in general US stock indicies - as Tony Caldaro has been writing about.

The Bears may have their day later, maybe starting in 2016

If anything, I'd say "war prep".

 

What we have is a very, very significant withdrawal of funds from the global stock market. This makes a lot of sense when we are "odds on" for the kick off of significant conflict. Returns on publicly traded stock will be brutalised if we move into a war economy. So the big players are shifting their portfolio into off balance sheet stuff. My guess is that is what is happening with all these "we buy gold" shops that have popped up all over the world, good ongoing return (they buy at significant discount from the public).

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CHANGING the Movie ?/

 

GAME Changer in global politics?

 

Some say: the elites want a crash and WW3 to cover how much money they have stolen.

Is it possible that We-the-People will not fall for it this time?

WE may have some (unexpected for some) help in preventing a War

 

Putin seems to have pulled off something amazing in Syria.

His move to help Syria fight ISIL has forced REALITY to be seen by everyone, even the US

> http://www.greenener...showtopic=20343

 

And all this occurred less than a day after Vladimir Putin’s speech in New York and his meeting with Obama. That means that all these events were the result of a deal. And in fact, these are only the first fruits. Clearly there is more to come. But the trend is clear – the US has acknowledged the legitimacy of Russian claims that Ukraine is within Russia’s sphere of interest.

 

 

Oct 01 11:58am:

Optimism has gone out of style on Wall Street. That's so 2014.

More

 

Just 25% of financial advisors who responded are bullish on U.S. stocks. That means there are fewer optimists out there than in March 2009 when the S&P 500 touched its bear market low of 666. It's almost as bad as October 2008 -- just after the implosion of Lehman Brothers -- when just 22% of investors were bullish. Back then people feared a collapse of the entire financial system.

. . .

Ed Yardeni, president of investment advisory Yardeni Research, notes that the Investors Intelligence ratio of bulls to bears has declined to 0.7, marking a fifth straight weekly reading below 1. He said in the past that's been "a very reliable buy signal."

Yardeni warned that this metric can stay low for a bit as stocks continue to churn lower. "But in the past, those lower prices turned out to be great buying opportunities," he wrote in a note to clients.

 

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Is it possible that We-the-People will not fall for it this time?

We-The-Netocracy certainly won't.

The other 99% We-The-Sheeple will gladly draw their swords and shoot each other for King and Country, because there isn't enough of the last generation left around to tell them it's a really bad idea.

 

And when these guys are driving down the street

 

I'll be quite happy to let them. For all the good it will do.

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Are we in the Last Rally now?

 

"I'd suggest that very hard times are just around the corner, waiting to spring upon us.

... the collapse of the financial markets which will bring great economic hardship.."

- CMJ

 

Indu-All-l2_zps1ouwxmiw.gif

 

Maybe the Bears have "called Wolf" too many times.

When the Big Bear market starts, many people won't believe it.

Many spoke about a crash this fall. We saw a decent drop, but not a crash. Stocks are rising again.

Will many people now think the market is immune to crashes, and jump in recklessly.

 

Tony Caldaro*, who has called this market very well, thinks we are in the last wave 5 rally.

I think he is targeting something like SPX-2,040 or higher, and maybe much higher.

But after that, the Big Bear arrives.

 

I hope people make some money on this "last rally", that's what it is.

But the really bad times still await us. The Big Bad wolf is still in the woods, and he is hungry

=== ===

 

*Tony Caldaro, on his blog yesterday said:

" This is the second best rally since the late-August, potential Primary IV, double bottom low at SPX 1867 to 1990. The next price obstacle for the SPX is obviously 2000, then the 2019 pivot. If the market can clear those levels, as easily as it cleared the 1956 and 1973 pivots, Primary V should indeed be underway"

==

> https://caldaro.wordpress.com/2015/10/05/monday-update-473/

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According to Bloomberg, Norway could as soon as next year start making withdrawals from its massive $830 billion sovereign wealth fund, which is a nest egg for "future generations."

The start of asset sales marks a historic shift for said "nest egg" which was not supposed to be tapped for many more years. Unfortunately for Norway, which has already spent recent years using a growing chunk of its oil revenue to plug deficits while at the same time building the wealth fund...

norway%20oil%201_0.png

... tax revenue from petroleum extraction are down 42% which means budget spending in 2016 will outstrip income.

The real problem for Noway is simple: the very procyclical plunge in oil prices.

As Bloomberg calculates, taxes collected on petroleum extraction reached 138 billion kroner in the first three quarters of the year, down over 40% from 238.2 billion kroner in the same period a year earlier, according to Statistics Norway. But while oil-linked revenues are plunging, spending is going nowhere but up:

 

Brent crude has averaged $56 so far this year, and has been below $50 for the past several months, presenting a huge challenge: how to tap the revenue shortfall.

The government said in May its non-oil budget deficit, or spending in real terms, would be a record 180.9 billion kroner ($21.6 billion). With its crude output waning and prices falling, the government saw petroleum income dropping to 251.6 billion kroner this year, almost 30 percent lower than its October projections. Those estimates assumed oil at about $69 a barrel.

. . .

Populist rhetoric aside, the SWF will have no choice but to sell: "capital coming into to the fund has already started to dwindle. Inflows were just 17 billion kroner in the first half of this year, compared with a quarterly average of 60 billion kroner over the past 10 years. Central bank Governor Oeystein Olsen, who oversees the fund as head of the bank’s board, said in February that oil around $60 would mean transfers to the fund "may come to a halt."

Oil is now nearly 20% lower, and as goes the price oil, so go the inflows into the fund. Which means that any month now, if not already, Norway will shift from net buyer of global financial assets to a net seller, in the process joining the Emerging Markets and, of course, China in soaking up even more liquidity, mostly USD-denominated, out of the market, in the process removing much of the liquidity injected by the Fed and its peer central banks

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http://www.silverdoctors.com/fund-manager-a-liquidity-crisis-hit-the-banking-in-september/

 

Fund Manager: Massive Liquidity Crisis Hit The Banking System In September

 

Something occurred in the banking system in September that required a massive reverse repo operation in order to force the largest Treasury collateral injection into the repo market IN HISTORY...

 

REPO1.png

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Glencore Production Cuts Backfire After World's Second Largest Miner Vows To Fill The Glencore Void http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-10-12/glencore-production-cuts-backfire-after-worlds-second-largest-miner-vows-fill-glenco

 

 

Chanos on Glencore: "Let's just say I'm a potential purchaser…to close out a short position you have to buy stock."

 

 

And Glencore halted on vol trigger, down over 7%

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http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-10-20/bond-market-begins-panic-4-week-auction-bids-plunge-october-2006-levels

 

Bond Market Begins To Panic: Bids For 4-Week Bill Auction Crater, Yield Spikes

 

what does the suddenly panicking - and revolting - bond market know about the debt ceiling showdown in 2 weeks that equities not only don't, but obliviously refuse to care about?

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