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drbubb

MAX Apathy: Gold, Bonds, Turning points, and the Solar Eclipse

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I still think these two may Turn at the same time ; Stocks Down, Gold Up

 

The Fed's Racetrack: Gold (GLD) vs Stocks (SPY) ... update :vs.CRB : GLD-hr : SPY-hr : GLD/SPY-Ratio

FRT_zpsurxkuolj.gif

 

I believe that the Gold -to-TLT Ratio may be signalling that the Turn is imminent / Latest: R- 9.99

 

Gold-toTLT_zpsykqkrmqf.png

 

The recent Turn UP in the GT ratio, may prove to be early warning that Gold is headed higher too.

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"GET USED TO IT!" says Draghi, about bond market volatility

 

... as the slides crosses the Atlantic and hits TLT / Tbonds

 

Here's:

BUNT (3x German Bond) versus UBT (2x US Long Bonds) ... update

 

BUNT-vsUBT_zpsuvelfcph.gif

 

TLT / Tbonds ---- : 117.52 -1.92 : -1.61% / 1x = -1.61% (L-12mo: 110.3)

UBT / 2x Tbonds : : 70.43 -2.23 : -3.07% / 2x = -1.54% (L-12mo: 60.93)

BUNT / 3x Germ. : : 45.65 -2.42 : -5.03% / 3x = -1.64% (L-12mo: 38.34)

 

FT: pg.1:

"The yield on German 10-year bonds hit 0.897%, the highest since Oct. 2014... it rose 32 bp in two days"

"The market is so illiquid, that you get very violent and quick moves."

Treasuries have tended to lead other global bond markets, but since the ECB announced QE... it has been the leader."

"Signs that the threat of a serious threat of deflaltion is receding in the eurozone are yet to impact on the ECB's plans

to continue buying debt at its present pace."

 

But Paul Thomasen sees a possible imminent upturn in TLT / Bonds

 

(in edit, PT's subsequent email suggests he is seeing a confirmation of Trend change, rather

than anticipating a move Up in TLT):

"Treasury bonds confirm heading lower into 2016"

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Big moves, like we saw in the Bond market, come... with consequences

=

http://investmentresearchdynamics.com/a-derivatives-bomb-exploded-within-the-last-two-weeks/

 

A Derivatives Bomb Exploded Within The Last Two Weeks

 

.... Something deep and dark has transpired ..... especially with regard to big bank balance sheets and OTC derivatives. ....

 

It was the sudden firing of Deutche Bank’s co-CEOs this past weekend – The Brown Stuff Is About To Hit The Fan – that prompted me to spend more time analyzing a sequence of events which indicate to me some sort of derivatives position, possibly at Deutsche Bank, has exploded. In addition, the stock and bond markets have been emitting some curious signals which reflect that fact that something happened in the global economic and financial system.

 

DJT_TNX-1024x637.png

 

It does not make sense that the 10-yr Treasury yield is moving higher – quite rapidly – while the DJ Transports are tanking – quite rapidly. ....

 

I believe the illogical movement in 10yr Treasury yields reflects the fact the Fed is losing control of its tight grip on the bond market and longer term interest rates. Note that German bunds have also experienced a similar spike up in interest rates and volatilty. In the context of my view that there was a derivatives accident somewhere in the global banking system in the last two weeks, it could well have been an OTC interest rate swap bomb that detonated.

 

10yrTreasuryPrice.png

 

.... the 10yr bond price plunged below the blue uptrend line. The 10yr bond price also crashed through its 200 day moving average – an ominous technical signal. Both of these events happened within the last week.

 

I believe that this action in the bond market is pointing to the fact that the Fed is losing control of the markets. I also believe that the catalyst for this loss of control is a big derivatives accident of some sort in the last two weeks.....

 

This could be the start of the big financial markets inferno that many of us have been expecting for quite some time.

=

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Dr Bubb - Do you know anything about the track record of the author/column - does it have a serial doom angle - or is this a more objective commentary?

 

The rise in the 10 year bund has been significant and not what was anticipated following the European QE announcement.

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?? Anshu Jain, :

credit default swaps, Deutsche Bank, financial collapse, OTC derivatives

??

 

Sorry, I do not know his/her track record, or biases.

 

My own are pretty obvious here, and I am mostly aware of them

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Jul : SPY- : Chg : volume/ VIX : GDX: +-chg: -GLD- : Chg: volume: x10.?? WTI.Cr: -DXY-- -Chg.- : --TLT- : Chg : Posts/Views cum'l
01: 207.50 +1.65: 125.M: 16.09 : 17.28 - 0.48: 111.98 - 0.39 : 4.35M: 1,167.8 $56.87* 96.410 +0.894: 115.62 - 1.58: 11, 011 / 109, 0109
02: 207.31 - 0.19: 93.9M: 16.79 : 17.63 +0.35: 111.76 - 0.22 : 3.81M: 1,165.2 $56.50* 96.063 - 0.247: 116.00 +0.38: 10, 021 / 101, 0210

 

I think there is a decent chance we saw an important Low in Gold shares on July 1st, and maybe on Gold yesterday.

Am I the only one who thinks that?

 

KITCO writers are unimpressed... while noticing some strong interest in Gold and Silver coins

 

Gold Acting Tepid At Best, Hits 3.5 Month Low: Gary Wagner - Kitco Video News, Jul 2 2015 4:06PM

Uncertainty To Rule Gold Market Next Week – Analysts - Kitco News, Jul 2 2015 2:32PM

Main Street Bearish On Gold For Fifth Straight Week; Wall Street Slightly Bullish - Kitco News, Jul 2 2015 1:18PM

Gold Down, Hits 3.5-Mo. Low, as Bears Gaining Momentum - Kitco News, Jul 2 2015 1:58PM

100% Surge In Gold & Silver Coin Sales – U.S. Mint - Kitco News, Jul 2 2015 1:27PM

=== ===

 

Can the metals break their range? Wagner comments on gold’s reaction to Thursday’s weaker-than-expected nonfarm payrolls data and says the metal is acting ‘tepid at best’ right now. With the uncertainty in Europe and the weaker U.S. data, gold should be performing better as a safe-haven asset, but instead hit a 3.5 month low on Thursday morning. Wagner says the weaker data may now delay the U.S. Federal Reserve’s first move on rates.
- Gary Wagner
. . .
Uncertainty will continue to dominate gold next week as analysts expect the market to continue to digest the weaker-than-expected nonfarm payrolls released Thursday, and react to the Greek bailout referendum Sunday.
Looking ahead, in the short-term, most retail investors remain bearish on the yellow metal while market professionals are still uncertain, according to the Kitco News Wall Street vs Main Street Weekly Gold Survey.
This week, 211 people participated in Kitco News’ online survey. Of those voters, 119 people, or 56%, expect to see lower gold prices next week; 62 participants, or 29%, expect to see higher prices next week. Thirty people, or 14%, are neutral on the gold market.
- Kitco Survey
. . .
Bart Melek, head of commodity strategy at TD Securities, said that although the employment data was mildly disappointing, it still doesn’t change expectations that the Federal Reserve will hike rates in September.
“The reality is that any jobs gains over 200,000 is still pretty good,” he said.
Melek added he is expecting prices to remain range-bound and with prices testing the lower end of the range, he is slightly bullish next week, expecting to see a technical bounce. “The fundamentals haven’t changed at all so this would be a purely technical move,” he said.
On the bearish side, Phillip Streible, senior market strategist at RJO Futures, said that investors are becoming more and more disappointed with gold’s inability to rally on market-positive news. He added that geopolitical uncertainty in Europe and Greece should have propelled gold $30 to $40 higher this week.
“I think the only way you are going to make money in the gold market right now is on the downside,” he said. “There is just no reason to buy gold right now.”
. . .
Technically, August gold futures bears have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are in a six-week-old downtrend on the daily bar chart. Bulls’ next upside near-term price breakout objective is to produce a close above solid technical resistance at this week’s high of $1,187.60. Bears' next near-term downside price breakout objective is closing prices below solid technical support at the March low of $1,143.80.
- Jim Wycoff

 

Descending-coins.jpg

There you go. THE LOW may be in front of their eyes, and they cannot see it !
Or I may be wrong, and the present chart pattern support levels, combined with weak volume, and a full moon, and prove to mean nothing at all. On the other hand, the last article shows that interest in physical gold by coin buyers is way up on last year... and also strong at a time which normally shows seasonal weakness:

 

“Sales of gold coins by the U.S. Mint have now risen by 150% m/m for the four weeks of June,” said analysts from Barclays in the bank’s Gold Delta report released Monday.

“Total sales have now turned positive for a y/y basis, rising by 20%,” they added.

Based on sales data released by the U.S. Mint, 76,000 ounces of the gold 2015 American Eagle bullion coins were sold in June alone, compared to 21,500 ounces sold in May. This represents an increase in sales for the mint of over 253%.

 

Stay Alert !

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Gold-to "Paper Promises", off the Low

That low we noticed in Apathy-to-financial risks, back in March is still intact
Gold-toTLT_zpsmudfd3wv.png

 

Though Gold is "out of favor", it has continued to outperform TLT-Bonds ... update : since Feb.14
Gold-vsTLT_zpsnldt1vt4.gif

 

When Stocks-in-Gold ozs break the long uptrend,

Will the funds flow back into Bonds and Gold?

SPY-toGLD_zpswkanpelf.png

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