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How will the world markets react, particularly the energy markets if the western world attacks Iran?

 

 

Apparently, Iran is the No. 2 producer of oil in the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries after Saudi Arabia. It also lies on one side of the narrow Strait of Hormuz, a key passage for most of the crude oil shipped from the Persian Gulf nations.

 

 

``If (they) politicize our nuclear case, we will use any means. We are rich in energy resources. We have control over the biggest and the most sensitive energy route of the world,'' Pourmohammadi was quoted as saying by the official Islamic Republic News Agency.

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I think the world would like it less than the action in Iraq-

which is unpopular even in America

 

Attacking Iran would probably be a lot worse than Iraq.

 

Iran is raising the stakes every day it would seem.

 

Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad said "It will cut off the hands of any aggressors and will make any aggressor regret it,".

 

http://newsbox.msn.co.uk/article.aspx?as=a...c=5&ml=ma&lc=en

 

I recall that in the run up to the attack on Iraq, markets fell heavily, but started to move upwards once the attack was underway and "victory" was expected. While you might expect the US to ultimately defeat Iran in any conventional conflict, it is unlikely that they would be able to control events afterwards. If Iraq is anything to go by, how many suicide bombers a day would you get in Iran? How many "insurgents" would relish the holy war against America? Southern Iraq, given it's Shia population might equally rise up. Iraq might fall into full on civil war because of an attack on Iran. It would be stupid for the US to even contemplate an attack on Iran. There is no government in waiting, no great desire it would seem to be liberated by the US.

 

An attack on Iran would be good for Gold and metals and commodities in general, but for stock markets it might follow the same pattern as Iraq, but then stall on any bad news. And Iran might deliver lots of bad news.

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I came across an interesting map today that indicates Iran has at least 23 sites dedicated to nuclear technology:

 

img5.jpg

 

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Bushehr Satellite Photo.

 

This shows the size of the task of any military action, even air strikes. It would have to be substantial and not just one target, but multiple. The question everyone should ask is how will Iran respond? Iran has up to 550 missiles with a range of 200 to 1,300 miles, capable of hitting virtually any target in the Middle East and beyond. Iran also has chemical weapons, according to U.S. officials, including the ability to produce 1,000 metric tons of sarin gas, mustard gas, phosgene, and hydrocyanic acid per year.

 

Below is a report from a 2004 of Iran's likely response to any attack.

Likely Responses to an Attack by Iran's Conservative Government

 

Unlike Iraq, which in June 1981 was in the midst of a major war with Iran and lacked the military means to retaliate for Israel's attack on its nuclear reactor in Osirak, Iran is not only capable but very likely to respond to a preemptive attack on its nuclear facilities. Various Iranian leaders have already promised very strong reactions to such an event. On July 5, 2004, during a visit to Hamedan in western Iran, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei told a crowd of thousands: "the United States says that we have endangered their interests... if anyone invades our nation, we will jeopardize their interests around the world."[35] In December 2003, Iran's Air Force Commander General Seyed Reza Pardis, said in response to statements by Israeli Defense Minister Shaul Mofaz that if Israel attacks Iran it will be "digging its own grave."[36] Considering the extensive financial and national policy investment Iran has committed to its nuclear projects, it is almost certain that an attack by Israel or the United States would result in immediate retaliation. A likely scenario includes an immediate Iranian missile counterattack on Israel and U.S. bases in the Gulf, followed by a very serious effort to destabilize Iraq and foment all-out confrontation between the United States and Iraq's Shi'i majority. Iran could also opt to destabilize Saudi Arabia and other Gulf states with a significant Shi'i population, and induce Lebanese Hizbullah to launch a series of rocket attacks on Northern Israel.

 

http://www.cns.miis.edu/pubs/week/040812.htm

 

One question that no one appears to be asking is this. If Iran is not to be allowed to develop it's nuclear industry, what types of energy sources will it be allowed. Right now it has plenty of oil, but sooner or later it will need alternatives. The west and much of the world it seems, do not want it to have nuclear power. What then will it be allowed to have?

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"Britain and France proposed a tough new draft Security Council resolution, ordering Iran to cease nuclear enrichment or face the possibility of "further measures" to ensure its compliance.

 

The move was backed by the US, but faced continued Russian and Chinese resistance to use of the UN's tough chapter 7 enforcement powers, which determine a threat to international peace and security, and can be used to authorize sanctions or military force. "I don't think this draft as it stands now will produce good results," said Wang Gunagya, China's UN ambassador."

 

Britain and France??? Now there's something you don't often see at the UN.

 

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/12616697/

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Went to hear Noam Chomsky speak last night at the University of Nicosia. No mention of the PetroEuro but he had plenty to say on the emerging 'new' mindset of Latin America and the threat of escalating nuclear tensions with Iran.

 

He believes the yanks are terrified of Chavez and will do anything to halt the spread of socialism in Latin America (I reckon they must be kicking themselves for leaving Castro in power for so many years: he 'infected' the region with socialism, now it does not matter what happens to Cuba after his death - the wheels are in motion)

 

Chomsky is in his seventies, sharp as a tack and VERY engaging.

 

 

The Cyprus Mail 18th May 2006

Hundreds turn out for Chomsky lecture

By Jean Christou

 

RENOWNED author and professor Noam Chomsky last night warned that nuclear war could be just around the corner but said it could be avoided if the West stopped threatening Iran.

 

Chomsky gave a lecture to a packed house at the University of Cyprus last night on ‘Imminent Crises’, which was attended by at least 500 people inside and outside, where a projector had been set up, you could have heard a pin drop as the audience clung to his every word.

 

To a standing ovation when he stepped on the podium, Chomsky said the world was not only threatened by the possibility of nuclear war but also by environmental catastrophe. In both cases human survival was now at stake only no one seemed to care.

 

He blamed this on what he called a prevailing moral and intellectual crisis, which was at the root of all the others “and is scarcely discussed at all”.

 

“Prominent strategic analysts warn that Washington’s transformation of the military, expanding offensive capacity and militarising space carries an appreciable risk of ultimate doom and call for a coalition of peace-loving states to counter Washington’s aggressive militarism led by China. We’ve come to a pretty pass when such thoughts are expressed at the heart of the establishment,” he said.

 

Turing to Iraq and Iran, Chomsky said the situation in both countries could easily escalate.

“There are opportunities to mitigate them if they are openly and frankly discussed. But they are not,” he said.

 

Chomsky said the two countries were at the heart of the world’s major energy reserves and were recognised by Washington 60 years ago “to be a stupendous source of strategic power, the strategically most important area of the world and one of the greatest material prizes in world history and constitute critical leverage against industrial rivals Europe and Asia.”

 

“For years the pretext was that the threat was Russia but that was a routine reflex all over the world and rarely stands up to scrutiny,” he said. “The huge military system is no longer meant to contain Russia but it has to be expanded because of the technological sophistication of third-world powers.”

 

He said there were ways to end the Iran crisis. “The first is to call off the threats that are virtually urging Iran and North Korea to develop nuclear weapons,” he said. Quoting one historian on the issue, Chomsky added: “If Iran is not developing nuclear weapons, then they are crazy. Washington will attack anyone it likes as long as they are known to be defenceless.”

 

Chomsky also said the US was eerily able to intimidate Europe when it “shakes its fist” but he said China refuses to be intimidated. “They have a 4,000 year history of contempt for the barbarians,” he said, adding that Washington’s biggest fear is that at current growth rates China will match the US economy in a decade.

 

“The US and Britain have been torturing Iraq for a long time. Recent history includes their support for Saddam Hussein during his worst crimes. An unthinkable option then and now is that Iraqis should rule Iraq independently of the United States. Stability is just a code word for following orders,” he said.

 

“When the US and Britain invade a country, its goal’s are noble, if misguided, and the term aggression is unspeakable. That’s common practice.”

 

Chomsky said that until 1979 Washington strongly supported Iran’s nuclear programme.

 

“During those years of course Iran was ruled by the tyrant installed by the US-Britain military coup. The biggest supporters of this were Dick Cheney and Donald Rumsfeld,” he said.

He also said that in 2004, the EU and Iran had reached an agreement to temporarily suspend its nuclear programme in return for a firm commitment on security issues in response to a credible US and Israeli threat to attack Iran.

 

“This was not reported,” said Chomsky. “Iran lived up to its side of the bargain but the EU, under US pressure abandoned its commitment. The preferred version in the West was that Iran broke the agreement.”

 

He said the Eastern Mediterranean had evolved in much the same framework. “Turkey is serving that plan right now. Cyprus of course was a major British military base and was used for the overthrow of the regime in Iran in 1953, for the Suez invasion in 1956, and for the US-British military actions in response to the coup in Iraq in 1958,” said Chomsky. “As British Prime Minster Anthony Eden put it: ‘Without Cyprus Britain would have no certain facilities to protect our oil’. Of course ‘our oil’ just happens to be somewhere else by accident.”

Asked specifically about Cyprus, Chomsky said: “The strong do as they can and the weak suffer as they must and the rest of the theory of international relations is either footnote or disguises.”

 

He said for Cyprus many of the problems were internal. “It’s convenient to blame outsiders for the problems. It’s not for me to recommend solutions but it’s usually a good idea everywhere to look in the mirror and ask what we can do right where we are to mitigate and limit problems that are very serious and have to be overcome,” he said.

 

Chomsky said the current moral and intellectual crisis in the West was nothing more than subservience to power.

 

“In the United States and Europe respected voices revelled in what they called the revolution underway where US foreign policy had entered into a noble phase with a saintly glow. For the first time in history a state was dedicated to principles and values, acting from altruism alone and at last the enlightened states would undertake their responsibility to protect the suffering everywhere led by the idealistic new world bent on ending inhumanity,” he said to loud cheers.

“The illustrations offered collapsed under the slightest examination and during those years the idealistic new world and its European ally were conducting the most horrendous atrocities of those ugly years and were all suppressed with impressive efficiency.”

 

Copyright © Cyprus Mail 2006

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Recent talk of a deal with Iran seems to have gone quite, but may still happen.

 

Iran's chief nuclear negotiator Ali Larijani said in Madrid: "We view this proposition in a positive light but there are doubts about it which we have to clarify through dialogue... I see no reason to be pessimistic."

 

However, he added: "We do not need to be given a time limit to respond... that does not make sense. If negotiation is to take place it needs to be in the language of negotiation."

 

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/middle_east/5160108.stm

 

But Iran was playing it's usual game elsewhere.

 

Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejed called on Islamic countries yesterday to mobilise against Israel and "remove" the "Zionist regime".

 

"The basic problem in the Islamic world is the existence of the Zionist regime, and the Islamic world and the region must mobilise to remove this problem," the president said in a speech to regional officials.

 

http://www.iii.co.uk/news/?type=afxnews&am...;action=article

 

It is interesting that Iran has talked of giving it's formal response to the UN in August, just when many feel that a new low may hit world stock markets (especially the US, and where the US goes the rest follow). If you are looking for an indicator of where stock markets may go later this year, keep listening for Iran's response on the nuclear issue.

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No deal on the nuclear issue? Iran may be about to up the stakes.

 

"We are examining the package, considering our interests and definitive legitimate rights and will announce our views at the appointed date," Mahoud Ahmadinejad said.

 

"But the incidents in Lebanon and Palestine have influenced our examination," said the president, whose country is a major supporter of Lebanon's Shiite Hezbollah movement as well as the Palestinian militant group Hamas.

 

http://www.iii.co.uk/news/?type=afxnews&am...;action=article

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Hmm:

Iran was playing it's usual game elsewhere.

 

Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejed called on Islamic countries yesterday to mobilise against Israel and "remove" the "Zionist regime".

 

"The basic problem in the Islamic world is the existence of the Zionist regime, and the Islamic world and the region must mobilise to remove this problem," the president said in a speech to regional officials.

 

= =

 

IS IRAN ABOUT TO TURN ANOTHER CARD in this game?

 

+ +

 

Meantime: Progress or Expediency ??

 

Reversal:

JERUSALEM (Reuters) - Unwelcome in Lebanon after an Israeli bombing that killed dozens of children, U.S. Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice cut short her peace mission on Sunday without calling for an immediate ceasefire to end the war.

 

Lebanese Prime Minister Fouad Siniora said he did not want her to come to his country for planned meetings on Sunday, saying that after Israel's air strike, he could not hold any talks on resolving the crisis before an immediate ceasefire.

 

Rice's renewed push to end fighting between Israel and Hizbollah was derailed by the bombing in southern Lebanon, which killed at least 54 people sheltering in a basement, 37 of them children.

 

"In the wake of the tragedy that the people and the government of Lebanon are dealing with today, I have decided to postpone my discussions in Beirut. In any case, my work is here (in Israel) today," Rice told reporters of the canceled Beirut trip.

 

 

Reaction?:

Israel suspends south Lebanon strikes

The Australian, Australia - 23 minutes ago

ISRAEL today suspended air strikes in southern Lebanon for 48 hours while it investigates the Qana bombings, US State Department spokesman Adam Ereli said.

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A very moderate solution to the middle east problem proposed by Iran.

 

Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad said today the solution to the Middle East crisis was to destroy Israel, state-media reported.
Although the main solution is for the elimination of the Zionist regime, at this stage an immediate ceasefire must be implemented,” Ahmadinejad said, according to state-run television in a report posted on its website today.

 

 

http://breakingnews.iol.ie/news/story.asp?...amp;p=y9yxz948x

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Iran has had the same policy towards the state of Israel since the fall of the Shah. Every so often they roll out a speech that the Jewish state should be destroyed or wiped off the face of the map. The media and Western politicians (read Bush/Blair) highlight this when it suits them to attack Iran as a terrorist state that needs to be dealt with. The middle east is probably a war without end. The rest of the world may well wash it's hands of the region once the oil runs out, but that's when it may be at it's most dangerous. One things for certain, the state of Israel isn't going to go away and they do have WMD's.

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Looks like Iran is going to say no.

 

"Iran has vowed to pursue its nuclear programme, in its first official response to last week's UN resolution urging it to curb nuclear activities.

 

Chief nuclear negotiator Ali Larijani said Tehran would continue to develop nuclear energy within the framework of the Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT)."

 

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/middle_east/5249810.stm

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Iran's "No"".

 

The world will now be wondering, what's next?

The "distraction" in Lebanon, is hardly going to make it easy for the US

to go into Iran now. Certainly Iran knows that, and may have helped engineer

that distraction to keep its flank safe when this news came out

 

Feel manipulated, Israel and allies?

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Iran's "No"".

 

The world will now be wondering, what's next?

The "distraction" in Lebanon, is hardly going to make it easy for the US

to go into Iran now. Certainly Iran knows that, and may have helped engineer

that distraction to keep its flank safe when this news came out

 

Feel manipulated, Israel and allies?

 

Bonkers and obnoxious though they are, I think the Iranian government are running rings around the Americans at the moment. They are bad, but also very clever.

 

Awful though Lebanon is at the moment, I believe the death rate in Iraq is actually higher than in Lebanon (and also Palestine). I don't honestly see how the Americans could defeat Iran militarily. Even if they were crazy enough to use nuclear weapons, that would irradiate the Iranian oil supply (or much worse).

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Awful though Lebanon is at the moment, I believe the death rate in Iraq is actually higher than in Lebanon (and also Palestine). I don't honestly see how the Americans could defeat Iran militarily. Even if they were crazy enough to use nuclear weapons, that would irradiate the Iranian oil supply (or much worse).

 

For a picture of Iraq that you don't get through most of our media.

 

http://icasualties.org/oif/default.aspx

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Bonkers and obnoxious though they are, I think the Iranian government are running rings around the Americans at the moment. They are bad, but also very clever.

 

Awful though Lebanon is at the moment, I believe the death rate in Iraq is actually higher than in Lebanon (and also Palestine). I don't honestly see how the Americans could defeat Iran militarily. Even if they were crazy enough to use nuclear weapons, that would irradiate the Iranian oil supply (or much worse).

 

In Liverpool the fire brigade are planning a strike but the army can't come and cover as they're all a bit busy.... so managers are being trained too.

 

Iran's just played the Ace of Oil Supply and I think has put the US in check mate.

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