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GLD RATIOs : A better measure of Gold's Cheapness ??

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GLD RATIOs : A better measure of Gold's Cheapness ??

 

Relationship of GLD to other prices, indices, and Federal Debt

 

AB_zpse66ae43f.gif

 

ETF : ----------------------------------------------------> / Ratio of GLD to : --------------------->

=== : - GLD- : - CRB- : -DBA- : - SPY- : -Debt / -CRB - : DBA- : - SPY- : -Debt- :

2007: $82.46 : 340.00 : $32.99 : 146.21 : $9.23 / 24.25%: r-2.50 : r-0.564 : r-8.94 :

2008: $86.52 : 247.10 : $26.18 : $90.24 : 10.70 / 35.01%: r-3.30 : r-0.959 : r-8.09 :

2009: 107.31 : 283.38 : $26.44 : 111.44 : 12.31 / 37.87%: r-4.06 : r-0.963 : r-10.03

D10 : 138.72 : 332.80 : $32.35 : 125.75 : 14.03 / 41.68%: r-4.29 : r-1.103 : r-9.89 :

Jun. : 146.00 : 338.05 : $31.74 : 131.97 : 14.34 / 43.19%: r-4.60 : r-1.106 : r-10.18

D11 : 151.99 : 305.40 : $28.88 : 125.50 : 15.22 / 49.77%: r-5.26 : r-1.211 : r-9.99 :

Jun. : 155.19 : 284.19 : $28.22 : 131.11 : 15.86 / 54.60%: r-5.52 : r-1.184 : r-9.78 :

D12 : 162.02 : 295.01 : $27.95 : 142.41 : 16.43 / 54.92%: r-5.80 : r-1.138 : r-9.86 :

Mar : 154.47 : 296.39 : $25.90 : 156.67 : 16.77 / 52.11%: r-5.96 : r-0.986 : r-9.21 :

Jun. : 119.11 : 275.62 : $24.90 : 160.42 : 16.74 / 43.22%: r-4.78 : r-0.742 : r-7.11 :

Sep : 128.18 : 285.54 : $25.29 : 168.01 : 16.74 / 44.89%: r-5.07 : r-0.723 : r-7.66 :

D13 : 116.12 : 280.17 : $24.25 : 184.69 : 17.35 / 41.45%: r-4.60 : r-0.629 : r-6.69 :

Mar : 123.61 : 304.67 : $28.33 : 187.01 : 17.60 / 40.57%: r-4.36 : r-0.661 : r-7.02 :

Jun. : 128.04 : 308.22 : $27.46 : 195.72 : 17.63 / 41.54%: r-4.66 : r-0.654 : r-7.26 :

Sep : 116.21 : 278.55 : $25.55 : 197.02 : 17.85 / 41.72%: r-4.55 : r-0.590 : r-6.51 = 65.1%

====

--------------------------------------------HIGH Target : 50.00%: r-6.00 : r-1.200 : r-10.00

Index : Ave % Highest = 65.1% ------ % Target : 83.44%/75.83%/49.17%/65.10% = 65.1%

 

Ratio of GLD to DBA

AC_zpsd546f3bb.png

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CRB Index, back to 1749

CRB-1749x60_zps2c8059c9.png

 

== Year : Gold -to- CRB : Ratio ... (Gold as year-end)

H : 1781 : $00.00 : 136.30 :

L : 1792 : $00.00 : $30.26 :

H : 1815 : $00.00 : 103.84 :

==

L : 1843 : $20.65 : $32.32 : 63.9 %

H : 1864 : $20.65 : 131.42 : 15.7 %

L : 1897 : $20.71 : $26.71 : 77.5 %

H : 1920 : $20.68 : 112.03 : 18.5 %

L : 1933 : $20.69 : $20.30 : 101.9%

H : 1951 : $34.72 : 134.86 : 25.8 %

L : 1968 : $38.69 : $97.70 : 39.6 %

H : 1980 : 589.75 : 330.03 : 178.7%

L : 1999 : 290.25 : 187.16 : 155.1%

==

H : 2006 : 635.70 : 354.20 : 1.79

H : 2008 : 865.00 : 462.74 : 1.87

Cl. 9/'14 : 1206.0 : 278.55 : 4.33

==

Kitco: (Gold: Yr. Ave. to 1968, then year-end)

 

GLD/Gold to CRB Index - and as a % ... update

Extremes :: 7/3/08 : $92.06 / 471.20 = 19.5% :: /2/11 : 183.24 / 338.06 = 54.2% ::

CRB-vsGLD_zps2c33db6a.png

 

GOLD -to- CRB : Range: 4.0 to 6.0 ... GLD -to-CRB (about 10%)

CRB Index, back to 1749

CRB-1749x60_zps2c8059c9.png

 

== Year : Gold -to- CRB : Ratio ... (Gold as year-end)

L : 1843 : $20.65 : $32.32 : 63.9 %

H : 1864 : $20.65 : 131.42 : 15.7 %

L : 1897 : $20.71 : $26.71 : 77.5 %

H : 1920 : $20.68 : 112.03 : 18.5 %

L : 1933 : $20.69 : $20.30 : 101.9%

H : 1951 : $34.72 : 134.86 : 25.8 %

L : 1968 : $38.69 : $97.70 : 39.6 %

H : 1980 : 589.75 : 330.03 : 178.7%

L : 1999 : 290.25 : 187.16 : 155.1%

==

H : 2006 : 635.70 : 354.20 : 1.79

H : 2008 : 865.00 : 462.74 : 1.87

Jun./ '11 : 1536.0 : 350.84 : 4.38

Cl. 9/'14 : 1206.0 : 278.55 : 4.33

==

==

Kitco: (Gold: Yr. Ave. to 1968, then year-end)

Gold price : http://www.measuringworth.com/datasets/gold/result.php

 

GLD/Gold to CRB Index - and as a % ... update

Extremes :: 7/3/08 : $92.06 / 471.20 = 19.5% :: /2/11 : 183.24 / 338.06 = 54.2% ::

CRB-vsGLD_zps2c33db6a.png

 

GOLD -to- CRB : Range: 4.0 to 6.0 ... GLD -to-CRB (about 10%)

Gold-to-CRB_zpsba9217e6.png

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YearE

2010

2011

2012

2013

=====



---------------------------------------------------->

=== : - GLD- : - CRB- : -DBA- : Db/Crb: - SPY- : -Debt /

2007: $82.46 : 340.00 : $32.99 : xxxx : 146.21 : $9.23 /

2008: $86.52 : 247.10 : $26.18 : xxxx : $90.24 : 10.70 /

2009: 107.31 : 283.38 : $26.44 : xxxx : 111.44 : 12.31 /

2010: 138.72 : 332.80 : $32.35 : xxxx : 125.75 : 14.03 /

2011: 151.99 : 305.40 : $28.88 : xxxx : 125.50 : 15.22 /

2012: 162.02 : 295.01 : $27.95 : xxxx : 142.41 : 16.43 /

2013: 116.12 : 280.17 : $24.25 : xxxx : 184.69 : 17.35 /

Mar'4: 123.61 : 304.67 : $28.33 : xxxx : 187.01 : 17.60 /

Jun '4: 128.04 : 308.22 : $27.46 : xxxx : 195.72 : 17.63 /

Sep '4: 116.21 : 278.55 : $25.55 : xxxx : 197.02 : 17.85 /

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Can Gold get ahead of Inflation? Will Real-$1900 be topped?

 

This chart shows that the Inflation adjusted peak from 1980, was bang-on with the Aug-11 High

 

Gold_Inflation_Adj_2013_zpsc3468466.png

 

These are End-of-Month figures -
So Jan.1980-Infl.Adj.-End price was approx. $1,850
Versus end-Aug. 2011 = $1826.0am / $1813.5pm (/GLD-$177.77 = 10.20)
However, the Monthly high was higher:
During Jan.$1980 : $2,700 / $850 = inflation: 3.176

 

> source: http://www.aboutinflation.com/gold-vs-inflation

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HERE is CPI ($$CPI):

 

To transform the $1920 August peak into a 2014 equivalent, we need an inflation index.

 

CPI_zps7554d46f.png

> source: Stockcharts.com (symbol: $$CPI )

 

Inflation : $$CPI
Aug.2011 : 227.0E : 095.61 %
Nov.2011 : 228.00 : 096.03 %
Aug.2014 : 237.43 : 100.00 %
Oct. 2014 : 237.5E : 100.03 %
=========
Oct.14 / Aug.11 --- : 1.0462
So $1,920 x 1.0462: $2,008
$1200 / 1.0462 == : $1,147 : - 40.3% from $1920 peak
======================
Gold-inCPI_zps41f3e759.png

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HALF of Gold's Gains Gone !

 

Using Inflation adjusted "real" prices, Gold-Adj. has given up HALF of its gains since the 2001 Low

 

The Drop to $1,180 / 1.0462 = $1,128 Real Gold price
That's 41.3% below the $1,920 Peak - versus the 82% drop from the 1980 Peak (HALF !)
This chart shows that the Inflation adjusted peak from 1980, was bang-on with the Aug-11 High
Gold_Inflation_Adj_2013_zpsc3468466.png
These are End-of-Month figures -
So Jan.1980-Infl.Adj.-End price was approx. $1,850
Versus end-Aug. 2011 = $1826.0am / $1813.5pm (/GLD-$177.77 = 10.20)
However, the Monthly high was higher:
During Jan.$1980 : $2,700 / $850 = inflation: 3.176
Using $2,700 : $1,128 / $2,700 (1980 peak) : - 58.2% lower

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TWO ASSETS Compared - which now produce little or no yield; and have very different risks:

 

TLT / Bonds : 2.43 % - with a small? capital loss, if held to maturity (10yr: 2.20% / 30yr: 2.80% )

GLD / Gold- : 0.00 % - with uncertain capital gains, or losses

 

TLT versus GLD/Gold ... update : 10-yrs

TLT-vsGLD_zpsscdxbhvn.gif

 

TLT- to GLD Ratio ... this "charts well" in a nice clear channel

TLT-toGLD_zps3alpnwzb.png

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Gold to CRB : may find support near current levels

 

Gold-toCRB_zpsgkqfvpuc.png

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