drbubb Posted October 4, 2014 Report Share Posted October 4, 2014 GLD RATIOs : A better measure of Gold's Cheapness ?? Relationship of GLD to other prices, indices, and Federal Debt ETF : ----------------------------------------------------> / Ratio of GLD to : ---------------------> === : - GLD- : - CRB- : -DBA- : - SPY- : -Debt / -CRB - : DBA- : - SPY- : -Debt- : 2007: $82.46 : 340.00 : $32.99 : 146.21 : $9.23 / 24.25%: r-2.50 : r-0.564 : r-8.94 : 2008: $86.52 : 247.10 : $26.18 : $90.24 : 10.70 / 35.01%: r-3.30 : r-0.959 : r-8.09 : 2009: 107.31 : 283.38 : $26.44 : 111.44 : 12.31 / 37.87%: r-4.06 : r-0.963 : r-10.03 D10 : 138.72 : 332.80 : $32.35 : 125.75 : 14.03 / 41.68%: r-4.29 : r-1.103 : r-9.89 : Jun. : 146.00 : 338.05 : $31.74 : 131.97 : 14.34 / 43.19%: r-4.60 : r-1.106 : r-10.18 D11 : 151.99 : 305.40 : $28.88 : 125.50 : 15.22 / 49.77%: r-5.26 : r-1.211 : r-9.99 : Jun. : 155.19 : 284.19 : $28.22 : 131.11 : 15.86 / 54.60%: r-5.52 : r-1.184 : r-9.78 : D12 : 162.02 : 295.01 : $27.95 : 142.41 : 16.43 / 54.92%: r-5.80 : r-1.138 : r-9.86 : Mar : 154.47 : 296.39 : $25.90 : 156.67 : 16.77 / 52.11%: r-5.96 : r-0.986 : r-9.21 : Jun. : 119.11 : 275.62 : $24.90 : 160.42 : 16.74 / 43.22%: r-4.78 : r-0.742 : r-7.11 : Sep : 128.18 : 285.54 : $25.29 : 168.01 : 16.74 / 44.89%: r-5.07 : r-0.723 : r-7.66 : D13 : 116.12 : 280.17 : $24.25 : 184.69 : 17.35 / 41.45%: r-4.60 : r-0.629 : r-6.69 : Mar : 123.61 : 304.67 : $28.33 : 187.01 : 17.60 / 40.57%: r-4.36 : r-0.661 : r-7.02 : Jun. : 128.04 : 308.22 : $27.46 : 195.72 : 17.63 / 41.54%: r-4.66 : r-0.654 : r-7.26 : Sep : 116.21 : 278.55 : $25.55 : 197.02 : 17.85 / 41.72%: r-4.55 : r-0.590 : r-6.51 = 65.1% ==== --------------------------------------------HIGH Target : 50.00%: r-6.00 : r-1.200 : r-10.00 Index : Ave % Highest = 65.1% ------ % Target : 83.44%/75.83%/49.17%/65.10% = 65.1% Ratio of GLD to DBA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
drbubb Posted October 4, 2014 Author Report Share Posted October 4, 2014 CRB Index, back to 1749 == Year : Gold -to- CRB : Ratio ... (Gold as year-end) H : 1781 : $00.00 : 136.30 : L : 1792 : $00.00 : $30.26 : H : 1815 : $00.00 : 103.84 : == L : 1843 : $20.65 : $32.32 : 63.9 % H : 1864 : $20.65 : 131.42 : 15.7 % L : 1897 : $20.71 : $26.71 : 77.5 % H : 1920 : $20.68 : 112.03 : 18.5 % L : 1933 : $20.69 : $20.30 : 101.9% H : 1951 : $34.72 : 134.86 : 25.8 % L : 1968 : $38.69 : $97.70 : 39.6 % H : 1980 : 589.75 : 330.03 : 178.7% L : 1999 : 290.25 : 187.16 : 155.1% == H : 2006 : 635.70 : 354.20 : 1.79 H : 2008 : 865.00 : 462.74 : 1.87 Cl. 9/'14 : 1206.0 : 278.55 : 4.33 == Kitco: (Gold: Yr. Ave. to 1968, then year-end) GLD/Gold to CRB Index - and as a % ... update Extremes :: 7/3/08 : $92.06 / 471.20 = 19.5% :: /2/11 : 183.24 / 338.06 = 54.2% :: GOLD -to- CRB : Range: 4.0 to 6.0 ... GLD -to-CRB (about 10%) CRB Index, back to 1749 == Year : Gold -to- CRB : Ratio ... (Gold as year-end) H : 1781 : $19.4E: 136.30 : 14.2 % L : 1792 : $19.39 : $30.26 : 64.1 % H : 1815 : $21.64 : 103.84 : 20.8 % L : 1843 : $20.65 : $32.32 : 63.9 % H : 1864 : $20.65 : 131.42 : 15.7 % L : 1897 : $20.71 : $26.71 : 77.5 % H : 1920 : $20.68 : 112.03 : 18.5 % L : 1933 : $20.69 : $20.30 : 101.9% H : 1951 : $34.72 : 134.86 : 25.8 % L : 1968 : $38.69 : $97.70 : 39.6 % H : 1980 : 589.75 : 330.03 : 178.7% L : 1999 : 290.25 : 187.16 : 155.1% == H : 2006 : 635.70 : 354.20 : 1.79 H : 2008 : 865.00 : 462.74 : 1.87 Jun./ '11 : 1536.0 : 350.84 : 4.38 Cl. 9/'14 : 1206.0 : 278.55 : 4.33 == 06/09/11 : 150.56 x 10.2 = $1,536 / 350.84 = 4.38: 42.91% 08/22/11 : 184.59 x 10.2 = $1,883 / 331.77 = 5.68: 55.64% 10/03/14 : 114.61 x10.39= $1,191 / 276.34 = 4.31: 41.47% == Kitco: (Gold: Yr. Ave. to 1968, then year-end) Gold price : http://www.measuringworth.com/datasets/gold/result.php GLD/Gold to CRB Index - and as a % ... update Extremes :: 7/3/08 : $92.06 / 471.20 = 19.5% :: /2/11 : 183.24 / 338.06 = 54.2% :: GOLD -to- CRB : Range: 4.0 to 6.0 ... GLD -to-CRB (about 10%) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
drbubb Posted October 7, 2014 Author Report Share Posted October 7, 2014 YearE 2010 2011 2012 2013 ===== Hist.Cont.CRB chart: http://futures.tradingcharts.com/chart/RC/X CRB Weightings : https://customers.reuters.com/d/Reuters_Jefferies_CRB_Index.pdf ----------------------------------------------------> === : - GLD- : - CRB- : -DBA- : Db/Crb: - SPY- : -Debt / 2007: $82.46 : 340.00 : $32.99 : xxxx : 146.21 : $9.23 / 2008: $86.52 : 247.10 : $26.18 : xxxx : $90.24 : 10.70 / 2009: 107.31 : 283.38 : $26.44 : xxxx : 111.44 : 12.31 / 2010: 138.72 : 332.80 : $32.35 : xxxx : 125.75 : 14.03 / 2011: 151.99 : 305.40 : $28.88 : xxxx : 125.50 : 15.22 / 2012: 162.02 : 295.01 : $27.95 : xxxx : 142.41 : 16.43 / 2013: 116.12 : 280.17 : $24.25 : xxxx : 184.69 : 17.35 / Mar'4: 123.61 : 304.67 : $28.33 : xxxx : 187.01 : 17.60 / Jun '4: 128.04 : 308.22 : $27.46 : xxxx : 195.72 : 17.63 / Sep '4: 116.21 : 278.55 : $25.55 : xxxx : 197.02 : 17.85 / Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
drbubb Posted October 7, 2014 Author Report Share Posted October 7, 2014 Can Gold get ahead of Inflation? Will Real-$1900 be topped? This chart shows that the Inflation adjusted peak from 1980, was bang-on with the Aug-11 High These are End-of-Month figures - So Jan.1980-Infl.Adj.-End price was approx. $1,850 Versus end-Aug. 2011 = $1826.0am / $1813.5pm (/GLD-$177.77 = 10.20) However, the Monthly high was higher: During Jan.$1980 : $2,700 / $850 = inflation: 3.176 > source: http://www.aboutinflation.com/gold-vs-inflation Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
drbubb Posted October 7, 2014 Author Report Share Posted October 7, 2014 HERE is CPI ($$CPI): To transform the $1920 August peak into a 2014 equivalent, we need an inflation index. > source: Stockcharts.com (symbol: $$CPI ) Inflation : $$CPI Aug.2011 : 227.0E : 095.61 % Nov.2011 : 228.00 : 096.03 % Aug.2014 : 237.43 : 100.00 % Oct. 2014 : 237.5E : 100.03 % ========= Oct.14 / Aug.11 --- : 1.0462 So $1,920 x 1.0462: $2,008 $1200 / 1.0462 == : $1,147 : - 40.3% from $1920 peak ====================== Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
drbubb Posted October 7, 2014 Author Report Share Posted October 7, 2014 HALF of Gold's Gains Gone ! Using Inflation adjusted "real" prices, Gold-Adj. has given up HALF of its gains since the 2001 Low The Drop to $1,180 / 1.0462 = $1,128 Real Gold price That's 41.3% below the $1,920 Peak - versus the 82% drop from the 1980 Peak (HALF !) This chart shows that the Inflation adjusted peak from 1980, was bang-on with the Aug-11 High These are End-of-Month figures - So Jan.1980-Infl.Adj.-End price was approx. $1,850 Versus end-Aug. 2011 = $1826.0am / $1813.5pm (/GLD-$177.77 = 10.20) However, the Monthly high was higher: During Jan.$1980 : $2,700 / $850 = inflation: 3.176 Using $2,700 : $1,128 / $2,700 (1980 peak) : - 58.2% lower > source: http://www.aboutinflation.com/gold-vs-inflation Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
drbubb Posted March 10, 2015 Author Report Share Posted March 10, 2015 TWO ASSETS Compared - which now produce little or no yield; and have very different risks: TLT / Bonds : 2.43 % - with a small? capital loss, if held to maturity (10yr: 2.20% / 30yr: 2.80% ) GLD / Gold- : 0.00 % - with uncertain capital gains, or losses TLT versus GLD/Gold ... update : 10-yrs TLT- to GLD Ratio ... this "charts well" in a nice clear channel Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
drbubb Posted March 10, 2015 Author Report Share Posted March 10, 2015 Gold to CRB : may find support near current levels Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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