drbubb Posted March 21, 2015 Author Report Share Posted March 21, 2015 A TURN in the Dollar, and maybe even in Gold may have happened this week. There were some big reversals - and a Huge Jump in views here too - It's interesting how these go together Mar.: -SPY-: Chg : volume/ GDX : Chg. : -GLD- : Chg : volume: x10.3? : WTI.Cr: -DXY-- -Chg- : --TLT--: -Chg- : Posts= / Views: cum'l 18: 210.46 +2.50 : 206.M: 18.84 +0.91 : 112.37 +2.16 : 12.2M: 1,166.4 $44.69* 97.807 - 1.796 : 131.49 +2.49 : 03 : 086 / 166 : 1,472 / 19: 208.56 - 1.90 : 000.M: 18.71 -0.10 : 112.29 - 0.08 : 0.00M: 1,170.5 $45.60* 99.067 + 1.260 : 130.82 -0.67 : 06 : 092 / 528 : 2,000 / 20: 210.41 +1.85 : 149.M: 19.33 +0.62 : 113.57 +1.28 : 7.98M: 1,181.7 $46.45* 97.801 - 1.266 : 131.51 +0.69 : 02 : 094 / 281 : 2,281 / (From above): Will the Dollar Rally peter out below 99.50? DXY / Trade-weighted USD ... update And so it did - the Resistance near 99.50 held, and the DXY/dollar dropped A TURN looks more powerful - in the AUD ... than in the EUR Note that AUD is above the 21d-MA - but has not yet broken the down channel, and is below the 76d-MA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
drbubb Posted March 22, 2015 Author Report Share Posted March 22, 2015 Western Banking in Full retreat: Rise of the East DXY - the trade-weighted US Dollar : 2yrs : all-data FXE - Long Term : update / static at 3/20/2015: Writes Cary Huang in today's SCMP, pg.16: Obama and Abe suffer strategic defeat over China-backed bank Support for AIIB will enable Beijing to finance projects and assume a more prominent role in regional development + Obama has been pressuring allies in Australia, Japan, and South Korea not to join AIIB, not there's a problem: + France, Germany, Italy, and Britain announced on Tuesday that they would join, + China help start the bank with $50bn in capital, and it will be based in Beijing. It will be a direct competitor of the Manila based Asian Development Bank, and may pose a threat to the IMF and the World Bank === === The bank's increasing acceptance around the world is seen as a triumph by Beijing, and a loss of face by Washington. This could also be the beginning of the end of the US Dollar, as the world's sole, or main reserve currency Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
drbubb Posted March 27, 2015 Author Report Share Posted March 27, 2015 US Dollar : the jig is up – investors are starting to grasp that the rate rises they were looking forward to in the US simply aren’t going to materialize, just some token rises to spin them along. This means that the dollar has either peaked is in a topping out process. You may recall in the last update that we said that the dollar index could get out as high as 120, in the circumstance of an immediate deflationary implosion. This now looks highly unlikely in view of the latest dollar and gold COT and sentiment data, and especially after the Fed “tipping its hand” last week. Action in the dollar and dollar proxies suggest that it has topped out, or at best is in the process of doing so, which could involve marginal new highs. Accordingly, we have removed our admittedly rather outlandish target of 120 from the 20-year dollar index chart shown below, and it looks like the dollar has now peaked at “round number” resistance at 100. This would not be really surprising given that it is at its 2nd most overbought level for the last 20 years after its amazing ramp of the past 9 months. On its 6-month chart we can see how the dollar’s rise became parabolic ahead of the Fed meeting, resulting in it becoming critically overbought on its RSI and extremely overbought on its MACD indicator. Seeing this we reversed position on the site into PM sector triple leveraged bull ETFs just ahead of the Fed, a gambit that has worked out well so far. Before leaving this chart note the anomalous intraday plunge by the dollar to its 50-day moving average on Wednesday which is thought to be a data glitch. The chart for UUP, a dollar bull ETF, is useful as it enables us to see that the intraday plunge by the dollar on Wednesday mentioned above was indeed a data glitch, as UUP did not make the same move. Another advantage conferred by looking at the UUP chart is that it has volume, which the dollar index chart doesn’t, and it enables us to see that there was a stampede for the exits immediately following the Fed, which of course has bearish implications. Fortunately we were able to front run this mob. It’s a case of laugh or cry when you see the dollar Hedgers and Optix charts shown below. Starting with the latest Hedgers chart, which is a form of COT chart, we see that it has dropped to crazy record short readings as Smart Money has piled on the shorts as the dollar went parabolic ahead of the Fed meeting. Just going on this chart, the dollar will be toast before much longer. Click on chart to popup a larger, clearer version. Chart courtesy of www.sentimentrader.comThe dollar optix, or optimism index shows that bullish sentiment towards the dollar was flirting was record extremes going into the Fed meeting, another indication that it is burning out. > http://www.kitco.com/ind/Maund/2015-03-23-Gold-Market-Update.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
drbubb Posted March 27, 2015 Author Report Share Posted March 27, 2015 $2,000 Gold THIS Summer? Bo Polny has one of the Most Bullish Gold forecasts. I love his charts - and he called the recent market turns beautifully > http://www.silverdoctors.com/tag/bo-polny/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
drbubb Posted April 13, 2015 Author Report Share Posted April 13, 2015 UDN (2x Bear on USD) versus FXA, FXC ... update : 10d / UDN : FXA : FXC : FXE : FX OPTION Pricing==========Sym.: $-Last-: change : Friday- : Strike : Month : Strike : Midpt : Pct.- : ATM-- : /d.s : SqRoot : ==== :DXY : 99.964 +0.607 : 99.317 : 100p :UDN : $21.29 --------- : $21.29 : $21c : Sep.15 : $21.c : $0.82 : 3.90% : 3.19%: 127 : 11.27 : 28.3bpFXE : 104.33 - $0.44 : 104.77 : 104c : Jan.'16 : 104.c : $4.12 : 3.96% : 3.81%: 218 : 14.77 : 25.8bpFXA : $76.88 - 0.088 : $76.97 : $77c : Jan.'16 : $77.c : $2.35 : 3.05% : 3.13%: 218 : 14.77 : 21.2bpFXC : $79.02 +$0.07 : $79.02 : $79c : Sep.16 : $79.c : $1.85 : 2.34% : 2.35%: 127 : 11.27 : 20.9bp Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
drbubb Posted April 20, 2015 Author Report Share Posted April 20, 2015 Changing FX Option prices == FX OPTION Pricing ========== Sym.: $-Last-: change : Friday- : Strike : Month : Strike : Midpt : Pct.- : ATM-- : /d.s : SqRoot : ==== : DXY : 99.964 +0.607 : 99.317 : 13 Apr UDN : $21.29 --------- : $21.29 : $21c : Sep.15 : $21.c : $0.82 : 3.90% : 3.19%: 127 : 11.27 : 28.3bp FXE : 104.33 - $0.44 : 104.77 : 104c : Jan.'16 : 104.c : $4.12 : 3.96% : 3.81%: 218 : 14.77 : 25.8bp FXA : $76.88 - 0.088 : $76.97 : $77c : Jan.'16 : $77.c : $2.35 : 3.05% : 3.13%: 218 : 14.77 : 21.2bp FXC : $79.02 +$0.07 : $79.02 : $79c : Sep.15 : $79.c : $1.85 : 2.34% : 2.35%: 127 : 11.27 : 20.9bp ==== Sym.: $-Last-: change : Friday- : Strike : Month : Strike : Midpt : Pct.- : ATM-- : /d.s : SqRoot : ==== : DXY : 97.431 -0.077 : 97.508 : 20 Apr UDN : $21.74 --------- : $21.74 : $21c : Sep.15 : $21.c : $1.02 : 4.86% : 2.87%: 120 : 10.95 : 26.2bpFXE : 106.36 +$0.00 : 106.36 :: 104c : Jan.'16 : 104.c : $5.48 : 5.26% : 4.15%: 211 : 14.53 : 28.6bpFXA : $77.86 +$0.00 : $ 77.86 : $77c : Jan.'16 : $77.c : $3.00 : 3.90% : 3.21%: 211 : 14.53 : 22.1bpFXC : $81.33 +$0.00 : $ 81.33 : $79c : Sep.15 : $79.c : $3.15 : 3.99% : 2.57%: 120 : 10.95 : 23.5bp === Changes: Currencies and FX Options : UDN ... 2X Bear on USD ... update ==== : 04/11 : 04/17 : %-change : Option ----- : 04/11 : 04/17 : %-chg. :DXY : 99.964 : 97.431 : - 2.53% :UDN : $21.29 : $ 21.74 : +2.11% : 09/15-$21C : $0.82 : $1.02 : +24.4% :FXA : $76.88 : $ 77.86 : +1.27% : 01/16-$77C : $2.35 : $3.00 : +27.7% :FXC : $79.02 : $ 81.33 : +2.92% : 09/15-$79C : $1.85 : $3.15 : +70.3% :FXE : 104.33 :: 106.36 : +1.95% : 01/16-104C : $4.12 : $5.48 : +33.0% : ==== detail : http://www.greenenergyinvestors.com/index.php?showtopic=19454&page=2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
drbubb Posted April 28, 2015 Author Report Share Posted April 28, 2015 The oil-sensitive Malaysian Ringgit has gained more than other Currencies in the last 10 days MYR (usd in MYR) versus AUD and SGD ... update-10days : 12-mos Latest- : MYR-3.555 , AUD-1.265 , SGD-1.3262014 ye : MYR-3.505 , AUD-1.224 , SGD-1.325 12-months : LCL : as USD-in: MYR, AUD, SGD / Other : as USD per: MYR, AUD, SGD The "Green" support levels for the Ringgit are about: 3.52, 3.375, and 3.15 was the Low in 2014 SGD / Sing. Dollar ... is one of the strongest currencies ... 12-mos SGD- all data Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
drbubb Posted April 28, 2015 Author Report Share Posted April 28, 2015 ==== : 04/ 11 : 04/ 17 : 04/ 28 : %-change : Option ----- : 04/11 : 04/17 : 04/28 : %-chg. :DXY : 99.964 : 97.431 : 96.165 : - 3.80% :UDN : $21.29 : $ 21.74 : $22.01 : +3.38% : 09/15-$21C : $0.82 : $1.02 : $1.17 : + 42.7% :FXA : $76.88 : $ 77.86 : $ 79.90 : +3.93% : 01/16-$77C : $2.35 : $3.00 : $4.15 : + 76.6% :FXC : $79.02 : $ 81.33 : $ 82.41 : +4.29% : 09/15-$79C : $1.85 : $3.15 : $3.90 : +110.8% :FXE : 104.33 :: 106.36 : 107.73 : +3.26% : 01/16-104C : $4.12 : $5.48 : $5.92 : + 43.7% : Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
drbubb Posted February 28, 2019 Author Report Share Posted February 28, 2019 DOLLAR NEAR KEY SUPPORT If the support level near 96 is taken out, a bigger dollar downturn may be underway DXY / Trade-weighted Dollar ... update - Last: $96.09 MYR / Malaysian Ringgit (USD in MYR) ... update - Last R 4.072 - vs. DXY == Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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