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drbubb

DrBubb's Diary - Sept. 2014 Trading - v.69

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With the big support Break - many have lowered their Silver Targets

 

SD Metals & Markets- Silver Slaughter: Are We Headed to $15?

=

=

 

Now many want to wait - "I'm buying at $15"

 

Aleister McCloud :

"It is end-of-quarter price pressure... Like in mid-2013 and year-end-2013..."

"The Shanghai Gold market has been ignored in the West...

China wants control of the Global Gold market..."

(China may see this as insurance against a currency collapse.)

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Pressure in Oil too

 

Brent Crude

Brent_zpsc21702dc.png

 

OILB / etf for Brent ... 3-years : 1-year : 10-days // USO-3yr : 1yr : 10d

OilB_zpsca15b528.gif

Brent falls below $97 on weak Chinese data, stronger dollar
Reuters UK-51 minutes ago
U.S. dollar hits 4-year peak against basket of currencies ... hit last week due to weak data from major buyer China and a stronger U.S.dollar.

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WATCHING The Euro here ... update

 

big_zps38ed8a0c.gif

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Another "hopeful" sign - as Agri. Prices (DBA) turn higher (at last !)

 

> From FUTURES:

Futures Price rises
Coffee ----- + 2.7%
Sugar ------ + 1.4%
R. Rice ---- + 0.8%
Lumber ---- + 0.6%
Lean Hogs- + 0.4%
Live Cattle- + 0.4%

 

Monday :
DBA: $25.70 : +$0.38 : +1.50% : Note recent low was on the day of the Equinox
CRB : 283.14 : +$2.86 : +1.02%
GLD : 117.03 : -$0.03 : - 0.03%
SLV. : $16.78 : -$0.12 : - 0.71%
=====

 

There have been a number of false dawns for precious metals, let's see if this one will be more meaningful

 

DBA - Agri-Fund ... 10-days : AG-10d / DBA: 2-years : 6-mos

DBA-10d_zps3e9e6d89.gif

 

In the past, DBA has turned up AHEAD of GLD ... update : DBA-vs-GLD

DBA-vsSLV_zps17c86ef1.gif

 

Here's the Ratio : Silver to Agri

SLV -to DBA :

SLV-toDBA_zpsf71d8a27.png

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(What I am hearing)

 

Payback Time: Kiev-Russia Yesterday - Hong Kong-China Today. The hand of the CIA.

HONG KONG PROTESTS PART OF HILLARY'S "CHINA WILL PAY" THREAT"

==

No.

That's not accurate.

I live in HK and have been speaking to people talking part in the protests.

I have spoken in some detail.

The attitude of the locals seems to be:

 

+ We are showing our displeasure with the voting arrangements offer by Beijing,

which fall far short of our expectations.

 

+ It is a numbers game. We want as many in the streets as possible tomorrow.

1 million would be good. 2-3 Million better (out of HK's population of 8 million.)

 

+ We do not want violence. This protest needs to be as orderly as possible

 

+ The teargas that the police used over the weekend was a mistake, it has inspired more

people to come out an "support the students"

 

+ If we do not show the intensity of our desire for democracy, Beijing will take it away from us

 

+ The US is no model. It is increasingly a fascist, un-free place. Hillary Clinton has no wisdom

to offer to HK or China

 

+ We like Xi. But he has made the wrong moves in HK. He does not really understand how

democracy (taking to the street) works in HK

 

+ A big win, would be if (HK's Chief Executive) CY Leung resigned. He has not stood up for the

people of HK, and we are showing by our presence in the streets, that we expect more.

 

+ We do not want to be ruled by Beijing, in league with HK billionaires, which is what seems

to be what Beijing wants to force upon us

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Top of Page Charts: Gold / USD / china gold // Russell / Copper / china silver

t24_au_en_usoz_6.gif : 24hr-euro-small.gif : AgTD0.png?id=11409221917 :

idx24_russell_en_2.gif : t24_ag_en_usoz_2.gif: AgTD0.png?id=11409221912 :

 

China: 4,200 RMB/kg / 6.150 = $ 683 / 35.274 = $19.36 (discount of about 20-25 cents?)

Goldstock : HK-2840 : GBS.L : GLD : GDX : NUGT : tza/faz

HK: 2899 : 1051 : hs / UK: POG / ABX : Sil : IAG : dba-etc. ... lot : YL : CVN : CC2 : BTC : SLV-lv

==============================================

 

gold.gif

 

 

silver.gif

 

END of QTR : Dollar shooting up : +0.45 : DXY 86.06 / As protests in HK continue:

 

(Excerpt... above post continues):

 

The attitude of the locals seems to be:

+ We are showing our displeasure with the voting arrangements offered by Beijing, which fall far short of our expectations.

+ It is a numbers game. We want as many in the streets as possible tomorrow. 1 million would be good. 2-3 Million better

(out of HK's population of 8 million.)

+ We do not want violence. This protest needs to be as orderly as possible

+ The teargas that the police used over the weekend was a mistake, it has inspired more people to come out an "support the students"

+ If we do not show the intensity of our desire for democracy, Beijing will take it away from us

+ The US is no model. It is increasingly a fascist, un-free place. Hillary Clinton has no wisdom to offer to HK or China

+ We like Xi. But he has made the wrong moves in HK. He does not really understand how democracy (taking to the street) works in HK

+ A big win, would be if (HK's Chief Executive) CY Leung resigned. He has not stood up for the people of HK,

and we are showing by our presence in the streets, that we expect more.

+ We do not want to be ruled by Beijing, in league with HK billionaires, which is what seems to be what Beijing wants to force upon us

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END of QTR :

Dollar shooting up : +0.45 : DXY 86.06 / EUR below $1.26 ... DXY-10d : EUR-10d

 

idx24_usd_en_2.gif

 

Today is 9/30, and the end of the Quarter

A great point in the wave count (5th-of-5th?) for a final blow-off ... Let's see

==

 

Note the Rebound/Jump in SGE to r3,876, as Kitco Silver gets knocked down to $17.28

 

t24_ag_en_usoz_2.gif : AgTD0.png?id=11409221917 : SLV-live / 10d: SLV : GLD : DXY

> SGE - Site : http://www.sge.sh/pu...sgeen/index.htm

Old Calc: AG-Shang.: 4,200 RMB/kg / 6.150 = $ 683 / 35.274 = $19.36 (discount: about 20 cents?)

Updates

09/26-12Nn: 3,860 /6.15 = 628.66 / 35.27 = $17.82 (cmx-AG: $17.55): premium: $0.27
09/30-06pm: 3,876 /6.14 = 631.27 / 35.27 = $17.90 (cmx-AG: $17.28): premium: $0.62

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9/30 is not over yet... Look at Silver !

 

silver.gif

 

Down below $17.00 - what a smash.

The drop from the High of the day is over 50 cents !

 

DBA: $25.69 - 0.01 : - 0.04%

CRB: 279.58 - 3.56 : - 1.26%

Oilb : $61.50 - 0.73 : - 1.17%

USO: $34.45 - 1.07 : - 3.01%

GLD: 116.17 - 0.86 : - 0.73%

DXY: 85.962 +0.34 : +0.40%

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Meantime, the Stock Bulls are touting the prospects for Q4

 

Get ready, dip-buyers — the fourth quarter should offer plenty of opportunities

 

Steen Jakobsen isn’t one to let this kind of resiliency get in the way of his depressing outlook on the state-of-things. The Saxo Bank chief economist gave investors this rancid morsel to chew on over the weekend: “We’re still not wise enough to realize that our current model is a ‘Ponzi’ scheme rushing toward its inevitable ‘Minsky moment’.”

By that, he’s saying that the U.S., plus China and Europe, are all heading for massive collapses. Unsustainable debt will be our undoing, though he didn’t give a definitive time frame. Sound familiar? It should. The permabears are well-armed with these kind of warnings, and they tend to get more of an audience after last week’s gentle wake-up call.

John Hussman’s weekly bear clarion call surely resonates a bit more as we enter October and the spooky, market-crashy vibe it tends to give off.

“My sense is that a great many speculators are simultaneously imagining some clear exit signal, or the ability to act on some ‘tight stop’, now that the primary psychological driver of speculation — Federal Reserve expansion of quantitative easing — is coming to a close,” he said.

That could very well be true. It sure felt like that last week. Until it didn’t.

This time of year can be unsettling for investors, but the truth of the matter is that the fourth-quarter has been a boon for bulls in recent memory. It tends to happen when funds have lagged the market, which is happening right now in a big way. So managers are left to chase it, until the ball drops on 2014.

Brian Stutland of Equity Armor Investments, one of the self-proclaimed dip buyers, pointed out on CNBC that the median compounded annualized return for the fourth quarter, during the previous seven years, is a whopping 24%, compared with 12% for the first three quarters.

Welcome to the pre-fourth-quarter stock sale. While supplies last.

==

> http://www.marketwatch.com/story/get-ready-dip-buyers-the-fourth-quarter-should-offer-plenty-of-opportunities-2014-09-29?siteid=bigcharts&dist=bigcharts

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Norway Buys Kroner for First Time From Oil Revenue Account

 

By Saleha Mohsin Sep 30, 2014

ixc9GY0CEaY4.jpg

 

Norway receives oil revenue in two ways. It gets income in kroner from taxes on production and dividends from Statoil ASA, in which the state holds a 67 percent stake. It also receives foreign currency from its direct stake in offshore production from Petoro AS, a state-owned company.

Norway will for the first time start buying kroner with foreign currency from its oil revenue accounts as Scandinavia’s richest nation takes an historic step in covering growing budget needs as crude output declines.

 

The Nordic country will buy 250 million in kroner ($39 million) a day in October, the Oslo-based central bank said today. The last time the bank tapped the currency market to manage its oil revenue was in October 2013, when it purchased foreign currency. It signaled earlier this year that Norway may need to start buying its own currency. The krone jumped as much as 1 percent against the euro and 0.7 percent versus the dollar.

 

“The amount that they will buy is even bigger than we expected,” said Kjersti Haugland, an analyst at DNB ASA (DNB), which estimates the amount announced today will be a “floor” for buying in the final two months. “It could imply that the spending of oil money has turned out to be actually bigger than budgeted.”

Krone buying marks the start of a new era for western Europe’s biggest oil and gas exporter, which has built an $860 billion sovereign wealth fund from its petroleum revenue over the past two decades. The government is using more cash to fill budget needs after oil and gas output fell almost 20 percent over the past decade.

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New Quarter, New ballgame?

 

DXY : - 0,07 ---------------------- : Gold : + 7.20 --------------------- : Silver : + 0.32

idx24_usd_en_2.gif : t24_au_en_usoz_6.gif : t24_ag_en_usoz_2.gif

 

THIS is more like it !!

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