drbubb Posted September 19, 2014 Author Report Share Posted September 19, 2014 Don Harrold : "We are Not at the Bottom... But I am buying" ... SLV-6mos https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iijtvxsOq2I "My (ideal) Target is $13-16... I think there are at least even odds we will get there" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
drbubb Posted September 19, 2014 Author Report Share Posted September 19, 2014 RATIO UPDATED from 2 1/2 years ago As I said then (3/2012): "Gold did much better than just "retaining its purchasing power". in relation to Agricultural commodities. What can we realistically expect from Gold as an inflation hedge against rising food prices? Isn't a 160% outperformance (relative to Ag commodities) big enough to start wondering..." Here's the Gold/GLD versus DBA chart that I mentioned ... updateRatio: GLD-to-DBAYou don't have to be a genius to spot the potential top here, using the Gold-to-DBA Ratio chart.(Yet I wonder: Where are the comments from the Gold purist gurus?)Gold did much better than just "retaining its purchasing power". in relation to Agricultural commodities. What can we realistically expect from Gold as an inflation hedge against rising food prices? Isn't a 160% outperformance (relative to Ag commodities) big enough to start wondering if the relative price gains are overdone - at least for the time being.Having asked this, I know there are those out there who think that Gold will go on beating inflation, because it will benefit from "seigneurage" which would come from using gold as a currency. Many gold purists would like to keep the supply of gold tight, and convince a large number of people that gold is the only suitable currency. This way, they might "pin gold to the ceiling" by backing currencies with Gold at a time when the price is high. If the Gold price is fixed, then the purists holding gold, could then offload and take their profits. The main beneficiaries may not be small private investors, but rather shadowy institutions (like the Vatican bank and others) that have hoarded gold for years.Gold has an important role in preserving wealth IMHO. I own it now, and have owned it for years... and I buy on dips and sell some when I think it is overvalued. But we must not treat gold owning as a religion and/or build cults around gold hoarding. = Update on the old charts DBA -vs-GLD GLD -to-DBA Ratio Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
drbubb Posted September 19, 2014 Author Report Share Posted September 19, 2014 Gordon Long / Charles Hugh Smith : "Crony Capitalism" 09 06 14 - Macro Analytics - Why Crony Capitalism is Happening w/ Charles Hugh Smith = https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pUx2SYDgwGk = Here is the quote that perfectly captures our era: "People of privilege will always risk their complete destruction rather than surrender any material part of their advantage." (John Kenneth Galbraith) The trick, of course, is to mask the unspoken second half of of that statement: everybody else gets destroyed along with the Elites when the system implodes.Union pension funds: toast. Government employees' pension funds: toast. 401Ks: toast. IRAs: toast. The echo-bubble in housing: toast. The Fed's favorite PR cover to cloak the enrichment of their financier cronies, the wealth effect:toast. The primary tool the Elites use to mask the risk of complete destruction is magical thinking--specifically, that "given enough time, the system will heal itself." That's rich, considering that the Elites' primary tool of avoiding destruction is crippling the market's self-healing immune system: price discovery. Thanks to ceaseless interventions by central banks, the price discovery mechanism has been shattered: want to know the price of risk? It's near-zero. Yield on sovereign bonds? Near-zero. And so on. Prices have been so distorted (the ultimate goal of Central Planning everywhere, from China to the EU to Japan to the U.S.) that the illusion of stability is impossible without more intervention. > http://www.oftwominds.com/blogsept14/crony-capitalism9-14.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
drbubb Posted September 19, 2014 Author Report Share Posted September 19, 2014 Big Break in COMEX Silver today : -$0.54 / 3% : : It is remarkable, since it is bigger than it "ought" to be: + Silver down 3%, Gold down 0.8% + SGE is falling much less, the Premium is now about 90 cents ! Obviously, STOPS are getting hit. Sometimes you will see a nice V bottom from a move like that. Especially since DXY looks like a possible 5th of 5th today, near a test of the 3rd of 5th High But "don't count the chickens" just yet... But I like the look of the updated chart from the "Don Harrold post" above -- update Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
drbubb Posted September 19, 2014 Author Report Share Posted September 19, 2014 NO GOOD REASON to Buy It, eh? GLD Prices Continue Irrational Behavior; Investors Should Seek More Stable Portfolio Additions 4:02 p.m. Sept. 18, 2014 / Seeking Alpha Gold continues to slump; nears year-to-date low 8:39 a.m. Sept. 18, 2014 / Seeking Alpha Monetary Policy Weighs On Precious Metals 8:30 a.m. Sept. 18, 2014 / Seeking Alpha === Gold has an inverse relationship with the US dollar so when the dollar declines gold rises. The two most important points to come out of today’s meeting were firstly that the tapering of QE would continue and interest rates may rise earlier then expected. We are now of the opinion that gold will trade lower and re-test the $1180/oz level, silver; if it breaks below $18.00/oz, would experience a drop to $15.00 level. Money printing, political turmoil, terrorism, protests, demonstrations, riots, separatism, sanctions, air strikes, etc., have done nothing for the precious metals sector of late. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
drbubb Posted September 19, 2014 Author Report Share Posted September 19, 2014 Biggest IPO ever? $21.8 Billion raises -- BaBa - Will the Sheeple Buy it? Starts trading in minutes ===== China's Alibaba set to deliver a record public stock offering Fortune-32 minutes ago Shares of Chinese e-commerce giant Alibaba are set to start trading on the New York Stock Exchange Friday after pricing at $68 a piece last ... Alibaba IPO: Trading begins at $92.70 per share as stock surges out ...The Guardian-5 minutes ago The Chinese company’s shares rose 38 percent to $94 apiece as of 11:53 a.m. in New York, after the IPO was priced at $68. The e-commerce company, which started in 1999 with $60,000 cobbled together by founder Jack Ma, is now valued at $231.7 billion . . . Ma is now China’s richest man, with an estimated net worth of $21.9 billion, according to the Bloomberg Billionaires Index. He will own about 7.8 percent of the Alibaba after the IPO, company filings indicate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
drbubb Posted September 19, 2014 Author Report Share Posted September 19, 2014 Back when I was trading actively intraday, I used to use SMH - semiconductor etf as a Key Bellwether Let's check in on this... SMH- semis / vs.SPY ... update Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
drbubb Posted September 19, 2014 Author Report Share Posted September 19, 2014 "+ SGE is falling much less, the Premium is now about 90 cents !" This later "resolved" by SGE FALLING... the equivalent of 25 - 30 cents This market is relentless. Wasting rebound opportunities. Making new lows Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
drbubb Posted September 19, 2014 Author Report Share Posted September 19, 2014 Here's the 2X etf for the Dollar: UUP ... update Note how Tops, usually require a pullback, and then a retest later, on lower RSI. We might still be 2-3 months away from the Dollar's high. The retest thing is not an absolute requirement. There was an earlier high in 2010 that did not form that way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
drbubb Posted September 20, 2014 Author Report Share Posted September 20, 2014 Clive Maund's Update - Excerpt Another Dollar rise, "could cause Gold to Crash through Key Support" ================================= > http://www.kitco.com/ind/Maund/2014-09-18-Gold-Market-Update.html As you probably know we had expected gold and silver to start picking up in the last update, for various reasons, the most important of which was that they are at important support at the most bullish time of year, seasonally, for the Precious Metals, but the dollar rally accelerated even more, driving gold and silver still lower and deeper into key support which is now being severely tested. If the dollar continues higher then gold and silver could crash key support, but this doesn’t look likely short-term because the dollar is now critically overbought and needs to take a breather. On its 15-year chart we can see how gold is just starting to break down from its long-term uptrend in force from late 2001, although thus far the break is marginal, and with the dollar so overbought it looks likely that it will step back from the brink. However, with another big dollar upleg looking likely after its overbought condition has unwound, the threat of eventual failure of this support may not go away soon. The key point to watch is the support at last year’s lows, which is not far beneath the trendline, but we should also note that Big Money may force a brief move below this support to trigger stops and run investors out of their positions before a sudden reversal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
drbubb Posted September 20, 2014 Author Report Share Posted September 20, 2014 UGLY, UGLY SILVER - we have to face it ... 3d After breaking the Double Bottom, near $18.35, we got THIS ! Much worse than Gold: 1216.90 -$9.00 : - 0.73% ..... and worse than WTI : $ 91.77: -$1.25 : - 1.34% ..... and worse than CRB : $279.40 -$1.54 : - 0.55% (same as the DXY rise) Meanwhile: The US Dollar Rose ----- : $ 84.86: +$0.47 : +0.55% Gold in FXE / Euros ----- : R 9.62 : : - 0.01 :: - 0.09% (basically unchanged) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
drbubb Posted September 20, 2014 Author Report Share Posted September 20, 2014 That Ugly collapse in Silver, may just be a Warning. So it is time to think more broadly, about what may be about to happen... Crony Capitalism, NWO Endgame & Commodity Collapse > http://www.greenenergyinvestors.com/index.php?showtopic=19456 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
drbubb Posted September 20, 2014 Author Report Share Posted September 20, 2014 / DEFLATION in Commodity Prices Continues / ... Silver, Wheat, BTC, and Gold shares hit hard ... === Last WEEK's MOVES ==== : on Friday 09/19 alone = : GLD : 118.38 : - 1.09 % / 117.09 : -0.69 : -0.59% / 10.77 M GDX : $23.88 : - 5.11 % > $22.66 : -0.47 : -2.03% / 48.13 M Ratio: R4.957 : + 4.24 % / R 5.167 (GLDx10.392 = $1,216.9) Gdxj : $37.49 : - 3.07% / $36.34 : -1.34 : -3.56% : 11.19 M ASA : $13.21 : - 7.27 % / $12.25 : -0.29 : -2.31% : 159,810 Nugt : $32.34 : -14.94 % / $27.51 : -1.87 : -6.36% : 7.56 M SPRD 788.40 : - 1.52 % / 776.44 = 24.96 mn oz. Gold stored TLT- : 113.38 : + 1.08 % / 114.60 : +1.44 : -1.27% : 10.70 mn G/Tlt : 10.86 :: - 2.21 % / 10.62 -> NEW LOW under 11.0 S/Tlt : 15.78% ==- 0.82 % / 15.78% > New Bottom below 15.8% === AG-S r4.114 : Changes? / r4,122 /6.15 x 35.274: $18.== > $18.== SLV : $17.89 : - 3.91 % / $17.19 : -0.58: -3.26% : 20.91m/ +$0.== SIL- : $12.12 : - 5.94 % / $11.40 : -0.43 : -3.63% : 283,363 DBA : $25.50 : - 1.33 % / $25.16 : -0.13 : -0.51% : 236,074 VDC : 116.94 : + 1.15 % / 118.29 : +0.15 : +0.13% : 51,572 Cop'r: $3.100 : - 0.32 % / $3.090 : -0.010 : -0.19% : 38,980 WTI- : $92.15 : - 0.41 % / $91.77 : -1.25 : -1.34% : 238,669 CRB : 281.90 : - 0.89 % / 279.40 : -1.54 : -0.55% : View-Chart CCI- : 499.32 : - 2.01 % / 489.29 : -4.26 : -0.86% : Vol. = 0 Wheat: 502.5 : - 5.67 % / 474.00 : -14.0 : -2.87% : 45,146 Corn: 338.50 : - 1.99 % / 331.75 : -7.00 : -2.08% : 97,001 Sugar: .1380 : - 2.17 % / $.1350 : -0.003 : -2,10% : 41,866 BTC : $471.0 -14.80 % / $401.30 : -4.03% : B/G.: 38.24% -11.79 % / 33.73 % : == A down week === FXI - : $40.95 : - 2.64 % / $39.87 : -0.42 : -1.03% : 25.22 mn PHM : $18.78 : + 0.21 % / $18.82 : -0.26 : -1.36% : 6.50 mn IYR- : $71.24 : - 0.41 % / $70.95 : +0.04 : +0.06% : 12.42 mn XLF- : $23.39 : + 1.11 % / $23.65 : -0.06 : -0.25% : 49.55 mn SPY- : 199.13 : + 0.79 % / 200.70 : -0.18 : -0.09% : 107.2 mn Xlf/Spy 11.75% + 0.29 % / 11.78% -> Near Flat +/-0.5% IWM- : 115.37 : + 1.21 % / 113.97 : -1.46 : -1.26% : 47.93 mn DXY- : 84.173 : + 0.73 % / 84.796 : +0.506 : +0.60% : N / A H-gold : 14.63 : - 1.91 % / 14.35 (AU/dxy) New Low 14.35 ===== Big Movers: Near 5% or more ========= BTC : $471.0 -14.80 % / $401.30 : Nugt : $32.34 : -14.94 % / $27.51 : ASA : $13.21 : - 7.27 % / $12.25 : SIL- : $12.12 : - 5.94 % / $11.40 : Wheat: 502.5 : - 5.67 % / 474.00 : GDX : $23.88 : - 5.11 % > $22.66 : Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
drbubb Posted September 20, 2014 Author Report Share Posted September 20, 2014 The Arguments AGAINST Precious metals (especially Silver) ============ + With Europe, Japan, (and China, to some extent) seeing big slowdowns and loosening money, the US is the only major currency area which is showing economic growth, and tighter money policy, as it moves forward with plans to scrap the Fed's bond buying program + Yellen sees the commodity price drops too, but the statistics sees pays most attention to (real or not) are still showing signs of decent growth, so she has stuck with plans to end bond-buying - and ignored the weak prices. Had she done otherwise she would have destroyeed her own credibility as a new Fed Chairman + The Fed has said that short term rates will stay low for the foreseeable future, which is stimulative. If they need other measures to counter falling prices, they can come up with something that is not the same as the bond buying program they are ending... or at least give it a different name, since they need to show they can end that QE program + The remarkable Dollar strength with these items in the background makes sense. But the dollar is now overbought, and a correction is due. After that, we may see at least one more period of dollar strength in a few weeks + In this environment, of (temporary?) Fed tightening, weak commodity prices, and remarkable dollar strength, precious metals under press is not surprizing. The question now is how many lows will get taken out. Silver just broke the 2013 Low, and Gold is getting close to the 1180 Low area + China has preferred to run down the SGE Silver inventories associated with the inside China, and a time which the SGE is opening a new trading facility where Silver and Gold can be held in Shanghai's SGE-related warehouses on a pre-tax basis. This makes sense. Trading there has just begun this week, and I would expect that buyers will prefer to trade on the International (taxfree) board, and that is where the biggest volume and inventories will be. I expect to see this grow rapidly, and that may mean that China is buying more Silver and Gold in Western markets in future to meet its needs, and to build SGE international inventories. But this demand is not being seen yet (apparently) + Harvey Organ has said that the large Silver long position on Comex is held by the Chinese - perhaps he is right. And maybe it will be used to build those inventories in Shanghai international warehouses. But this theory is unproven so far. + Friday's price drop to new lows, shook out some stop-related selling. We need to see how much of those big Comex longs will get liquidated. If the Comex Silver longs are not Chinese, and they start getting sold on Comex, that is bearish, and we may see a Silver low in the $13-16 area, as Don Harrold has predicted + If instead, Comex silver gets shifted from the US to Shanghai, then that would be bullish == * PRECIOUS-Gold, silver tumble as Fed outlook fuels selling - Reuters, Sep 22 2014 7:18AM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
drbubb Posted September 21, 2014 Author Report Share Posted September 21, 2014 check : Grant Williams - BTFTV " a new awakened and independent source of financial news" - said a guest on the Kunstler Cast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
drbubb Posted September 22, 2014 Author Report Share Posted September 22, 2014 Top of Page Charts: Gold / USD / china gold // Russell / Copper / china silver : : : : : : China: 4,200 RMB/kg / 6.150 = $ 683 / 35.274 = $19.36 (discount of about 20-25 cents?) Goldstock : HK-2840 : GBS.L : GLD : GDX : NUGT : tza/faz HK: 2899 : 1051 : hs / UK: POG / ABX : Sil : IAG : dba-etc. ... lot : YL : CVN : CC2 : BTC : SLV-lv ============================================== Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
drbubb Posted September 22, 2014 Author Report Share Posted September 22, 2014 Shanghai Changes ??? Not well explained > Link: http://www.en.sge.com.cn/datas/sgeprice-daily/520374.shtml The SGE has changed the look of its site - both in English and Chinese. (This may have some connection with the opening of International market trading) (from Friday): === Last WEEK's MOVES ==== : on Friday 09/19 alone = : AG-S r4.114 : Changes? / r4,122 /6.15 x 35.274: $18.== > $18.== SLV : $17.89 : - 3.91 % / $17.19 : -0.58: -3.26% : 20.91m/ +$0.== These changes are not well explained in English, and I am trying to make sense of them. There has been a big Downwards Shift in the Silver price (more later today)Aburptly Lower in Shanghai... and I am not sure why Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
drbubb Posted September 22, 2014 Author Report Share Posted September 22, 2014 Gold May Test $1,200/Oz If Dollar, Stock Gains Continue - Kitco News, Sep 19 2014 2:25PM Gold Falling To $1,180 Wouldn't Surprise This Trader - Kitco Video News, Sep 19 2014 11:53AM === === Friday, September 19, 2014 2:23 PM (Kitco News) - Gold prices fell to eight-month lows this week, pressured by a stronger U.S. dollar and rising real interest rates, and market watchers said if gains by the dollar and stock indexes continue, gold prices could slip to $1,200. That is about $14 from this week’s lows, but is also not far from the December 2013 low of around $1,180, considered an important support point. December gold futures fell Friday, settling at $1,216.60 an ounce on the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange, down 1.2% on the week. December silver fell Friday, settling at $17.844 an ounce, down 4% on the week. This was the lowest price in four years for silver. In the weekly Kitco News Gold Survey, out of 37 participants, 24 responded this week. Of those, seven see higher prices, 13 see lower prices and four see prices trading sideways or are neutral. Market participants include bullion dealers, investment banks, futures traders and technical-chart analysts. . . . Mike McGlone, director of research in the U.S. for ETF Securities, said the U.S. dollar and equities strength are hampering gold and it’s likely to remain that way until something turns in either of those markets. "The environment is still bad for metals. The main thing that hasn’t changed is the number one asset class is drawing capital – that’s equities. Until that stops," gold will be under pressure, he said. Rob Haworth, senior investment strategist, U.S. Bank Wealth Management, said the dollar strength is likely to continue "well into next year." "We’re reaching highs we haven’t seen in a couple of years, there seems like there is room for a pause to refresh the dollar," Haworth said. "But the fundamentals for the dollar remain fairly constructive at this point. We have higher interest rates than in Europe, we’re on the cusp of raising interest rates, our economy is healthy, we think the fundamental trend of stronger dollar continues into next year." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
drbubb Posted September 22, 2014 Author Report Share Posted September 22, 2014 US Housing - Looking Sick mjtplayer says: September 22, 2014 at 9:07 am More lousy housing data this morning, existing home sales down 1.8% month-over-month and down 5.5% yoy. Inventories rising, up 4.5% while price gains shrink, up 4.5% yoy from double-digit gains in 2013. Housing is rolling over, that’s clear. By year-end or early 2015, price gains will be little-to-none. Starts and permits figures last week was a disaster, this morning’s number isn’t good either. Real estate is a sell. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
drbubb Posted September 22, 2014 Author Report Share Posted September 22, 2014 Here's a DISSENTER from Tony C's view that Stocks will see a 5th wave extension mjtplayer says: September 21, 2014 at 9:28 am . . . I’m having a hard time wrapping my head around a fifth extension, that’s all. From the Feb low up to the 2,011 high it’s a perfect 5-wave move. Yes, this new high in the S&P could be an extension, but I see a lot of weakness underlying: A/D line, new highs/lows, R2K continues to underperform, fewer sectors making highs with the averages, volume still sucks, bullish sentiment is sky high while bears are nowhere to be found, etc. Friday was an ugly bearish engulfing candle on the R2K while the DOW, SPX, NAZ and QQQ all put-in a “hanging man”. The VIX was smashed under 12 Friday a.m. down to the mid 11’s, but the bulls still can’t seem to keep it under 12 as it rallied and finished the day slightly positive, closing above 12 yet again. The autumnal equinox is tomorrow with the new moon, these have been pulling us higher this past week, IMO, with OPEX, Fed news and Scotland no vote all helping. But, all the good news is out – right? We could make 1 more high tomorrow/Tuesday morning, but given the poor performance Friday and patterns they put in... I would say Monday is the kick-off to a down move; how much of a down move is yet to be seen. Maybe we only drop a day or 2 in your minute ii extension count, or maybe we drop below == > http://caldaro.wordpress.com/2014/09/20/weekend-update-466/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
drbubb Posted September 23, 2014 Author Report Share Posted September 23, 2014 Possible Low? Or just some clever lines? (Maybe the latter, but I wanted to see if I could find a way of producing a chart, to show that GLD may have just seen a Low, and I came up with this): GLD ... update Now Gold is so close to the $1180-1200 support level, it seems like it might have to visit that first, before more buyers would step in... However, we cannot complete rule out a rally from yesterday's low Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
drbubb Posted September 23, 2014 Author Report Share Posted September 23, 2014 Rockefellers OUT of OIL ?? (from Ben Fulford): The Rockefeller Brothers Fund announced last week they were getting out of the oil business and into renewable energy.http://www.nytimes.com/2014/09/22/us/heirs-to-an-oil-fortune-join-the-divestment-drive.html?_r=0It may also be why a French bank issued a report last week saying $100 billion invested in renewable energy would produce four times more energy than the same amount of money invested in oil. "... the foundation would first divest its assets from industries involved in coal and tar sands mining, followed by a more gradual disengagement from other fossil fuel stocks..."http://www.impactlab.net/2014/09/18/100b-invested-in-wind-or-solar-will-produce-more-energy-than-oil/ How are the Oil and Energy stocks looking? Have the Rockefellers started selling already ? XLE / Select Sector SPDR-Energy (ETF) ... update : Last: $92.41 -1.38 : -1.47% / Yr-L: $92.05 / Yr-H: $101.52 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
drbubb Posted September 23, 2014 Author Report Share Posted September 23, 2014 Remote Viewers tackle 9/11 : Farsight thread-pg6 WATCH IT - as their describing what they see - you can feel their emotional pain, and what happened... And they "observed" the planning - A Cabal around a table Remote Viewing 9/11: The Official Trailer = = Published on Sep 10, 2014 According to remote-viewing data collected at The Farsight Institute in one of the most revolutionary projects ever, this is the story of what really happened during the terror attacks that occurred in the United States on the 11th of September, 2001. This is a two-part documentary. In Part 1, the focus is on the World Trade Center attacks that occurred in New York City on that infamous day. Part 2 focuses on the Pentagon attack that occurred on that same day, as well as the personnel and organization of those who engineered the joint operations in New York and Washington, D.C. Combining two of the best remote viewers on the planet currently, using U.S. military derived methodologies for perceiving across time and space, and working within a scientifically clean and totally blind experimental design, we now have new eyewitness reports that change everything we were originally told about the 9/11 events. The science of remote viewing has matured to the extent that such a project as this is finally achievable. But no one could have expected the results to be as shocking as what was actually revealed by these new data. This remote-viewing study will change the way many people look at the world, and it adds a strong note of caution to the potential for manipulation of even advanced democratic industrial societies. = Bit by bit, as the evidence comes in... It becomes obvious the skeptics battling 9/11 Truth were wrong Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
drbubb Posted September 23, 2014 Author Report Share Posted September 23, 2014 The falling US Dollar (-0.25) has brought a bid... To the Precious Metals market : Gold +$15 ... GBS.L to the Top of a Gap Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
drbubb Posted September 24, 2014 Author Report Share Posted September 24, 2014 On Wednesday... This could be bullish for Gold - if it persists Gold is holding its own... basically UNCH ... as the US Dollar (DXY) pushes to new highs If Gold can hold during Dollar Rallies, then it should Jump, when the USD falls again Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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