Jump to content
Sign in to follow this  
drbubb

DrBubb's Diary - Sept. 2014 Trading - v.69

Recommended Posts

Gold and Silver are certainly NOT behaving (yet) like they have made an important bottom.

 

They are struggling.

 

This Video, suggests the Cyclical Low is just ahead -

 

"Sometime in September," says Peter Grandich in the second part of this interview

 

GoldSeek Radio - Sept 5, 2014

G EDWARD GRIFFIN & PETER GRANDICH

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MLWEHaE94sA

 

(I think I should investigate his cycles a bit more)

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Here's someone else, who is also watching Shanghai Silver inventories closely

 

Harvey Organ- By December Whole Thing Going to Collapse

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aZwSiHBxm0c

 

Comment under the Youtube video:

Some good stuff here in the interview. Thanks for bringing in Harvey's perspective.
I have also been watching the Silver Inventories on the Shanghai Gold Exchange very closely. Up until very recently, the SGE price of Silver was below the Comex price. It made sense for Chinese merchants to take delivery, running those inventories down. And the Shanghai inventories reached a very low level, more than 90% below its peak of 18 months ago. But today is different. The SGE-Silver price has not fallen with Comex in recent days, and is now 20 cents or more ABOVE the Comex price. That means the Chinese will stop running down their inventories, since the will not want to take delivery of expensive silver, when they can get it more cheaply elsewhere. So I expect Silver to now start moving again from West to East. Chinese buying on Comex and in Western markets should help the Silver price recover from its recent dip. WATCH THIS CLOSELY ! It could get exciting very soon.
== ==

Silver Inventory Peak: 1143 MT- in Apr. 2013 / at 103 MT (8/25/14), it is down - 91%

silver-chart.png
Organ's prediction of a December collapse was based on the continuing depletion of Shanghai silver.

SGE Silver Inventories, he discusses at 21-24 mins. into the Video

"A year ago was 33 million oz. (that's 1,000MT+)

Now: just 2.9 million - losing 2 mn oz a month.

The Chinese are the LONGS on the Comex market,

and that is why there is a High open interest, with a low price."

What I am seeing now is : a Jump of the Shanghai silver price Up to a premium.
How this happened was: when the Comex price fell, the Shanghai price held up.
This premium means that Chinese users of Silver will no longer find it cheapest to
buy on the SGE, and take delivery. They will save money if they instead Turn to Comex
and buy at the lower Comex price. As buying shifts, the decline of SGE silver inventories will stop.
If the Chinese really are the Comex longs, then Harvey Organ may be right, and
The Chinese will start taking delivery on Comex, rather than SGE.
The shift of the silver away from Comex will cause the problems, thinks Organ.
"Comex is the last Large cache of above ground Silver!", says Organ.
When China demands it Silver from Comex, "That's the end game!"
As Organ sees it, the Chinese taking delivery of their Comex Silver contracts will disrupt the market.
There's not enough physical silver there, for deliver to occur. And the world will suddenly awaken.
The price will get squeezed higher and higher - since the Chinese want and need the Silver
for their manufacturing.
Will SGE-now at a fat premium of about 30 cents*, the drama may be entering the final and
most exciting phase.
You may want to hang onto your hat... and hang into your Silver too !
=====

*Latest: Calc: AG-Shang.: 4,150 RMB/kg / 6.150 = $ 674.8 / 35.274 = $19.13

Compare: Kitco's $18.81 - 0.13

 

The Western (Kitco) price is now $0.32 cheaper !

Just 3 weeks ago, it was 20-25 cents more expensive.

That's a big shift ! Of over 50 cents !

 

=====

Organ's website :: http://harveyorgan.blogspot.hk/

Excerpt from latest comment:

The total silver Comex OI surprisingly rose by 684 contracts even though silver fell yesterday to the tune of 5 cents. Tonight the silver OI complex rests at 165,281 contracts. These silver contracts are in very strong hands and as I have indicated to you on countless occasions, this will continue to bring nightmares to our bankers. Probably this is as good a reason as ever for the bankers to raid on a continual basis trying to force those longs to puke their interests. We are now in the next big delivery month of September and here, surprisingly, the OI for September rose by 80 contracts up to 967 contracts. We had 0 notices filed yesterday so we gained a rather large 80 contracts or 400,000 additional oz will stand for the September contract month.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

A GDXJ close above $37.50 ... GDXJ-chart

 

Might be enough to TURN the Tide.

 

(in edit) : Got it !

 

GDXJ :

 

GDXJ_zpsd534ce8e.gif

 

The close was above the 110p.MA (= 4d), which should turn UP Friday,

and there's now a good chance to push thru the 208p.MA (= 8d), at $38.70 or so

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Quiet on the Surface...

 

Sep: -SPY-: Chg : volume/ -GDX : Chg. : -GLD- : Chg : volume: x10.3? : WTI.Cr: -DXY-- -Chg- : --TLT--: -Chg- : Posts= / Views: cum'l
10: 200.07 +0.75 : 64.2M: 24.10 - 0.46 : 120.26 - 0.61 : 6.98M: 1,249.9 $91.71* 84.186 +0.086 : 114.96 - 0.73 : 04 : 073 / 108 : 1,176 /
11: 200.30 +0.23 : 62.4M: 24.27 +0.17 : 119.47 - 0.79 : 7.39m: 1,241.1 $93.08* 84.321 +0.135 : 114.58 - 0.38 : 04 : 077 / 117 : 1,293 /
But "under the hood" (in GDXJ), we seem to be seeing the early signs of an upturn in Gold stocks
ETF-- : $ -Last- : Chg.-- : Pct. -- : $-Low- : Off-L.
GDXJ : $38.49 : +$0.89 : +2.37% : $36.79 : +4.62% !!!
GDX - : $24.27 : +$0.17 : +0.71% : $23.77 : +2.10%
NUGT : $33.93 : +$0.58 : +1.74% : $32.00 : +6.03%
GLD - : 119.47 : - $0.79 : - 0.66% : 118.77 : +0.59%
SLV-- : $17.96 : - $0.28 : - 1.54% : $17.82 : +0.79%
S/Gdx : 74.0 %
SG-AG : 4,135/6.15= 672.4/35.274 = $19.06 /1.04= $18.33
(US$eqv: $18.33 > that's $19.06/ 1.04
Premium $0.37 !!

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

THREE Big Gold Stories out of China

 

The new International board will have Gold held in a tax-free warehouse - in Shanghai

It can be moved (at little cost) back and forth from the Int'l market.

And it will give China more impact in the international market.

As well as making the Rmb price more meaningful, more visible

 

(1)

Shanghai Gold Exchange's Intl Board to Start Trading Next Month

CRIENGLISH.com-Aug 25, 2014
The international board of the Shanghai Gold Exchange will start trading ... Inside sources say the board, which is located within the Shanghai ...
+++
Shanghai Gold Exchange to Launch International Board on Sept. 29
Wall Street Journal-18 hours ago
An employee at a gold shop in Wuhan, Hubei province. Traders expect the Shanghai Gold Exchange's international board to broaden the ...

 

(2)

China Holds “Gold Congress” - Positioning Itself As Global Gold Hub, “In China, Gold Is Money”

Posted by : GoldCore
Post date: 09/11/2014 - 16:15
China Gold Congress in Beijing The China Gold Congress is currently in full flight in Beijing. The three day Congress is China’s biggest gold industry event of the year, drawing in participants from...
. . .
China’s gold market accounts for one third of global demand, and according to the WGC, is expected to grow another 20% cumulatively from now until the end of 2017.

In what is still a very centrally planned economy despite many market related reforms, nearly all reported gold activities in China flow through the Shanghai Gold Exchange (SGE) in one form or another.

Both the China Gold Association and the Shanghai Gold Exchange were established with government backing and their growth and success reflect a very deliberate pro-gold strategy on the part of the Chinese Government.

Even though the China Gold Association is a non-for-profit member association, it still primarily acts as a conduit and coordination group between the government and the gold producers.

The Shanghai Gold Exchange is the government’s second central hub in China’s gold market.

SGE approved refiners take in production from China’s fragmented gold mining industry and in imports from Hong Kong and other countries.

... we are going to see SGE and Comex going Head-to-Head

(3)

CME to launch gold futures contract in Hong Kong by ...
Reuters-20 hours ago
(CME Group Inc will launch a physically deliverable gold futures contract in Hong Kong ...
CME to Launch Hong Kong Gold Futures Contract
Wall Street Journal-16 hours ago
CME to launch gold futures contract in Hong Kong
South China Morning Post (subscription)-6 hours ago
=== ===
CME Group Inc will launch a physically deliverable gold futures contract in Hong Kong later this year to capture growing hedging and investment buying in the Asian region, a senior executive of the exchange said on Thursday.
The planned launch of CME's 1 kilogram (kg) gold contract comes as other exchanges in the region are racing to provide a viable alternative to the metal's global benchmark, which is under regulatory scrutiny.
. . .
Asia accounted for 63 percent of total consumption of gold jewellery, bars and coins in 2013, up from 57 percent in 2010, according to World Gold Council.
. . .
The launch of the Shanghai Gold Exchange's international bourse later this month will also be closely tracked by global investors as gold is one of the first commodities that China is opening up to foreign players by allowing them to participate directly in physical trading and to use offshore yuan. The bourse will launch three yuan-denominated physical gold contracts, of 100 grams, 1 kg and the bigger London gold delivery bar weighing 12.5 kg.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

SILVER STOPS getting Hit !

"Overnight" price as low as $18.50 (/1.04 = $17.79 : SLV Equiv.)

 

Bitcoin : Down-channel now in place :
=======
Charts: Bitcoins LIVE : BTC:1-year : 4-mos : 10d : Ticks : BtcWisdom : BTC-24hours

chart.png?m=bitstampUSD&v=1&t=S&noheader

BTS - Frozen / Bitcoins, on Bitstamps ; 10-Days: http://tinyurl.com/bts-10d : 6-mos

BTC-2014_zps3d44f7b0.png


================
Gold / USD / china gold // gdx : n s a :
t24_au_en_usoz_6.gif : 24hr-euro-small.gif : AuTD0.png?id=11406031228
AG - T + D / Calculations
AgTD0.png?id=11406021131 : t24_ag_en_usoz_2.gif: 3-days
> SGE - Site : http://www.sge.sh/publish/sgeen/index.htm
Calculations:
AG-Shanghai : 4,200 RMB/kg (ct. is 15 kg)
/ CNY exch. Rate
/ 6.150 = $ 683 / 35.274 = $19.36 (I observed a discount of about 20 cents)
==============

 

SILVER : They are Running the Stops Overnight (outside NY Trading !)

 

silver.gif

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

The Money-men don't like it !

SCOTLAND : A YES Vote would be a "Black Swan"... for which they are unprepared

 

Got a mail from a friend in Scotland late last night that got me thinking. “Unfortunately, using Ireland as a model of fracture, we may start blowing up each other.” I’ve been reading a lot lately, in between all the other things, about Scotland, as should be obvious from my essay (Jim Kunstler tells me I can use that word) yesterday, Please Scotland, Blow Up The EU, and sometime today a thought crept up on me that has me wondering how ugly this thing is going to get. I think it can get very bad.

.

What I get from it all is that if anything is going to win this for the independence side, it must be the arrogance the London government has exhibited. That alone could seal the deal. But now of course London has belatedly woken up. Even David Cameron is scheduled to – finally – visit Scotland in the course of the contest. And if push comes to shove, they’ll throw in a royal baby. Or a Queen. Mark my words.

Cameron’s visit is funny in that he never thought it necessary until now because he thought he would win no matter what until a few days ago, and also funny because he must easily be the least popular person in all of Scotland, so a visit is a substantial risk. He had his bellboy Alistair King do a TV debate recently, and King flunked that thing so badly he may have single-handedly propelled the Yes side into the lead.

The knifes are being sharpened and soon they will be drawn – there’s only 9 days left. Question is, who will end up hurt?

. . .

There’s an added dimension in Scotland: the fact that the City of London is the number 1,2 or 3 (take your pick) most important finance center on the planet. If and when anybody rattles that kind of cage, other forces come into play. It’s no longer about politics, but about money (and no, I’m not too think to see how the two are linked).

.

So I hold my breath and my prayers for both my Scottish and my British friends – and I happen to have lots of them – and I hope this is not going to get completely out of hand.The reasons I think it may get out of hand regardless is that

1) there is not one side that was ever prepared for the situation in which they find themselves today and

2) there is an enormous supra-national interest that resides in the UK financial world which is in a semi panic mode about how much money can be lost not just because of a UK break-up, but because of the uncertainty surrounding that potential break-up.

==

> http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-09-10/black-swan-scotland

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

How Bizarre !

Is this just a One Day Lag... or something more ominous ??

 

A nice Reversal off the Low in Gold stocks yesterday (esp. GDXJ)

Then, today in HK trading, a BIG Break in the Silver Low, triggering shorts...

 

(from the Top):

SILVER STOPS getting Hit !

"Overnight" price as low as $18.50 (/1.04 = $17.79 : SLV Equiv.)

SLV - Last Two Years ... update : 6-mos : 10-days

SLV_zps9b18b255.gif

10-days

SLV-10d_zps0c1b57d4.gif

Silver ... update-3d ... $17.75 x 1.04 = $18.46

silver_zps47b663b8.gif

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

IS the DOLLAR DYING ?

 

I am finding Jim Willie increasingly irritating - especially the latest forecast

 

He talks about the Dollar dying - does THIS look like a Death? ... update

 

DXY_zpsa9c95392.gif

 

I would hope to have a portfolio of assets "dying" in that fashion.

 

I wonder if he is losing subscribers, since I don't see how his commentary is of much value

 

(I should talk today, with Silver so weak - But I feel like we should still be in a

Monitoring Silver mode, since we haven't yet seen the clear signs of the bottom I have been expecting.)

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

WHO's is next ? Venezuela??

 

Venezuela Default risk has almost doubled from July

 

Up from 900 bp to 1500 bp - CDS spread. (per FT, pg. 8 today)

 

But it is still below the 1700 bp peak in Feb.

 

The market does not seem to believe Pres. Nicolas Maduro, who said:

"We're prepared to meet our international obligations in their entirety..."

 

They have $21 bn of reserves, but only $3bn are liquid.

Venezuela has foreign assets at risk (if it defaults, such as Citgo, and oil receivables.)

=

Hmm.

They may be running out of choices. Might V. be selling some Gold ?

(The Gold price has been under big pressure)

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Imagine the Big pride in Owning "the World's smallest house"

 

( No, it's not in Hong Kong )

 

-275000-house-in-Barnsbur-009.jpg

 

GBP 275,000 ... in Islington, near Upper St.

 

The estate agent selling the house describes it as "unique" and there is no arguing with that. But with homes in the area usually selling for much more, it seems that size doesn't matter. An agent at the Upper Street branch of agent Winkworth told the Guardian they'd had two calls about the flat already – just a day after it went on the market. He said there was nothing else in the area for under £300k, with even ex-council properties in the trendy suburb going for £400k or more

 

http://www.theguardian.com/business/2014/sep/05/north-london-tiny-275k-house-for-sale-zoopla

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

What to do when your flight is delayed

 

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4PrBnG9E4I4

 

(It helps if your name is Cyndi Lauper)

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Small Comfort?

 

As weak as Gold has been this year, Oil has been weaker

 

AA_zps5ed1389c.png

 

This suggests the world remains in the grip of deflation.

 

That shows here too:

 

Gold-toCRB_zpsf9242082.png

 

CRB versus DBA (Agri. fund) and GLD ... update : Busy-w-Trendlines

CRB-vsEtc_zps54a7615f.gif

 

With all these price declines, I really wonder how the economy can be as strong as the statistics say it is (?)

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

/ GOLD Shares - 2nd week of big drops, and Gold slides too /

... Gold is sliding with other commodities, especially food ...

=== Last WEEK's MOVES ==== : on Friday 09/12 alone = :
GLD : 122.06 : - 3.01 % / 118.38 : -1.09 : -0.91% / 7.74 M
GDX : $25.07 : - 4.75 % > $23.88 : -0.39 : -1.61% / 31.73 M
Ratio: R4.869 : + 1.81 % / R 4.957 (GLDx10.402 = $1,231.5)
Gdxj : $39.30 : - 4.61 % / $37.49 : -1.00 : -2.60% : 8.27 M
ASA : $13.55 : - 2.51 % / $13.21 : -0.09 : -0.68% : 100,394
Nugt : $37.64 : -14.08 % / $32.34 : -1.59 : -4.69% : 5.95 M
SPRD 785.73 : + 0.34 % / 788.40 = 25.34 mn oz. Gold stored
TLT- : 115.73 : - 2.03 % / 113.38 : -1.20 : -1.05% : 11.07 mn
G/Tlt : 10.97 :: - 1.00 % / 10.86 -> Back at Low under 11.0
S/Tlt : 15.91% - 0.82 % / 15.78% > New Bottom below 15.8%
===

AG-S r4.165 : - 1.13 % / r4,114 /6.15 x 35.274: $18.96 > $18.23

SLV : $18.42 : - 2.87 % / $17.89 : +0.07 : -0.38% : 7.59m/ +$0.34

SIL- : $12.75 : - 4.94 % / $12.12 : -0.22 : -1.78% : 423,427

DBA : $26.43 : - 3.52 % / $25.50 : -0.17 : -0.66% : 314,666

VDC : 118.02 : - 0.92 % / 116.94 : -0.83 : -0.70% : 46,077

Cop'r: $3.156 : - 1.77 % / $3.100 : +0.010 : +0.23% : 32,061

WTI- : $93.43 : - 1.37 % / $92.15 : -0.93 : -1.00% : 278,714

CRB : 288.02 : - 2.12 % / 281.90 : -0.87 : -0.31% : View-Chart

CCI- : 508.47 : - 1.80 % / 499.32 : -3.52 : -0.70% : Vol. = 0

Wheat 534.3 : - 5.95 % / 502.50 : -7.00 : -1.37% : 39,251

Corn: 356.75 : - 5.12 % / 338.50 : -3.00 : -0.88% : 95,154

Sugar: .1500 : - 8.00 % / $.1380 : -0.006 : -4.04% : 120,832

BTC : $480.0: - 1.88 % / $471.00 : -0.24% :

B/Gld 37.81% + 1.13 % / 38.24 % : == A down week

===

FXI - : $42.52 : - 3.69 % / $40.95 : -0.16 : -0.39% : 23.35 mn

PHM : $18.53 : + 1.35 % / $18.78 : -0.29 : -1.52% : 5.08 mn

IYR- : $74.82 : - 4.78 % / $71.24 : -2.11 : -2.88% : 25.91 mn

XLF- : $23.46 : - 0.30 % / $23.39 : -0.02 : -0.09% : 34.58 mn

SPY- : 201.11 : - 0.98 % / 199.13 : -1.17 : -0.58% : 105.3 mn

Xlf/Spy 11.67% + 0.68 % / 11.75% -> Near Flat +/-0.5%

IWM- : 116.38 : - 0.87 % / 115.37 : -1.24 : -1.06% : 31.88 mn

DXY- : 83.764 : + 0.49 % / 84.173 : -0.096 : -0.11% : N / A

H-gold : 15.15 : - 3.43 % / 14.63 (AU/dxy) New Low 15.00

=====

 

Big Movers: Near 5% or more
=========
Nugt : $37.64 : -14.08 % / $32.34 :
Sugar: .1500 : - 8.00 % / $.1380 :

Wheat 534.3 : - 5.95 % / 502.50 :

Corn: 356.75 : - 5.12 % / 338.50 :

SIL- : $12.75 : - 4.94 % / $12.12 :
IYR- : $74.82 : - 4.78 % / $71.24 :
GDX : $25.07 : - 4.75% > $23.88 :
Gdxj : $39.30 : - 4.61 % / $37.49 :

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

DEFLATION : Why my Forecast of higher Precious Metals prices is not happening (yet)

 

CRB - still falling downwards in a channel - may soon bounce off the bottom

 

CRB_zpse942b8d8.png

 

Let's hope it stops there !

GLD / Gold is now in a steeper downwards channel ... update

 

CRB-vsBusy_zpsff75188a.gif

 

My forecast on Gold ("An important Low will be in place before the end of July")

 

...may still work out - barely - because at GLD-xx it is xx% above the end of the year level.

 

What I expected was for Prices (and especially Food prices) would make a low before the end of July.

July/August is when a 25 month cycle in Commodity prices was expected to bottom

 

CRB / Commodity Research Bureau Index ... 5-years-W : 2-years-D : 10-day

 

CRB-cycle_zps92d4997a.gif

 

The CRB cycle does not stand on its own ... update

 

CU-crbetc_zps72c4bc4c.gif

 

WHEAT has been under-pressure, but may be set for an upturn from Friday's low at $5.00.

 

Wheat_zpsf095e894.png

 

These charts suggest that prices are set to Turn up - perhaps during the coming week.

If they fail to turn up in September, Precious metals may be in serious trouble.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Deflation Warnings

BN-EM551_0911wi_G_20140911064815.jpg

 

Wilbur Ross: Deflation, Not Inflation, Is the Bigger Concern

Wall Street Journal (blog)-11 Sep, 2014

While the financier, who heads up WL Ross & Co., thinks the Federal Reserve is likely to raise interest rates in the middle of 2015 – and rightly so, he said–Mr. Ross thinks the developed world has structural headwinds that make inflation concerns a thing of the past.

Speaking at the Japan Society in New York Wednesday, Mr. Ross surveyed the economic, investment and monetary landscape in the U.S., Japan and Europe. If there was a common denominator, it’s that central banks are doing what they can but the experience of quantitative easing is that "financial markets are much easier to move than economies."

In fact, he argued that governments–which have seen financing costs decline–have been the biggest beneficiary of QE, and not the private sector.

WASHINGTON, Sept 12 (Reuters) - The United States is planning to push Europe towards new and more aggressive attempts to increase demand and economic expansion in the middle of a renewed risk of deflation in the euro zone, a senior Treasury formal stated on Friday.

G-20 finance ministers and central bankers will fulfill in Australia late next week and the formal stated that lagging global expansion will top the agenda.

The U.S. hopes over the next two months to craft a commitment from the globe 's top economies to increase investment and foundation expenditure and take other steps to prop up aggregate demand in the short term.

Europe will be a focal point , with Germany singled out for its large existing account surplus as a country that could assistance its neighbors by expenditure and importing more, an argument the U.S. has pressed before.

"Boosting domestic demand is key and attempts to do so should be supported by decisive actions across a full range of economic policies

 

=====

(Video from Mike Maloney - Aug. 2014):

"You can't get the general population to take on more debt, if they don't want it!"

 

World Events Mean Deflation First, Then Inflation

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vAFtlgJNMCo

 

The reason I think that deflation has to happen first is because looking throughout all of history, I can't find a single example where the masses, the population gets rewarded for mass stupidity. It's usually the banks that end up winning, the big boys, and the average guy suffers - at the expense of the banks." Mike Maloney, June 2 2014. Mike has been publicly speaking about this 'deflation first, then inflation' scenario since 2005.

Visit http://www.hiddensecretsofmoney.com to see this entire Bonus Presentation and learn more.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Done !

The FRINGE has been moved to the A-Core section

 

THE FRINGE is Moving

 

To Find the Fringe Section : look at the Top of the page - where I have place a shortcut Link

The A-Core button is broken up into three pieces:

. . . . . . . . #1 + #2 + #3

acoreOldL-89x33_zps1a839ec5.gif + acoreOldR-89x33_zpsa6fa6a2d.gif + acore4d-Fringe_zps5722070d.gif

#1 : public- : http://www.greenener...hp?showforum=32

#2 : private : http://www.greenenergyinvestors.com/index.php?showforum=45

.... : --------- : then to Back Channel for discussing the A-Core section

#3 : Fringe : http://www.greenener...hp?showforum=37

 

MORE on the ACore section : http://www.greenenergyinvestors.com/index.php?showtopic=5521

ACore also has a web-page : http://tinyurl.com/Acore-site

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

"The Shemitah" (Cycle of Periodic Collapse)

 

Jonathan-Cahn-Mystery-of-the-Shemitah.jp

 

1917 +7: 1924 +7: 1931 +7:

1938 +7: 1945*+7: 1952 +7: 1959 +7:

1966 +7: 1973 +7: 1980 +7: 1987 +7

1994 +7: 2001 +7: 2008 +7: 2015 (Major Collapse US, date: xx ):

 

25 Sep. 2014, the one year Smeetah starts, shift in momentum

20 Mar. 2015, exact Center - a solar eclipse

XX Sep. 2015, the end of the S.

======

*(USA Peak-1945), 1973-WTC finished, 2001-WTC collapse

 

Many crashes were on the exact dates and hours of the Shemitah

The New Tower (at ground zero) may complete next year

 

This comes from a fascinating interview with Jonathan Cahn, author of The Harbinger

 

Coast To Coast AM - September 11, 2014 9/11 & The Shemitah Pattern

(starts at about 1:30 Hours)

 

= https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Jui8knXrbU8 =

 

shemitah_zps060a0ad9.jpg

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

DBA CYCLE : Looking for Cycles in DBA / Agri Fund ... update

 

AA_zps4db50dcd.gif

 

Corn and Wheat should fit in with this too. And Rally if/when DBA rallies

 

CORN.L vs WEAT.L ... update - to end 2014

 

CORN_zps1083f720.gif

=

If we are going to get a 38.2% retracement in CORN and WEAT, it must be near current levels.

 

Looking at the Commodities...

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Barratt has saved itself... from a SELL Confirmation

 

BDEV.L ... update

 

BDEV_zpsc78d3acf.gif

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

latest from Caldaro: weekend update

 

Thus far we have counted Primary waves I and II completing in 2011. Primary III could have topped in 2013, but extended into 2014. The current uptrend has the potential to end Primary III, as we can count five Intermediate waves up from the Major wave 4 low in February at SPX 1738. However, there are two problems with this count, one in the DOW and the other in the NDX/NAZ. . . . The key levels to watch are first SPX 1905. If the market revisits this level Primary III probably ended at SPX 2011. Second SPX 2011. If the market rises above this level the uptrend is probably extending. Third SPX 1991. Should the uptrend extend it has to rise high enough to avoid overlapping the high of the previous uptrend. Since we are in pullback mode now, SPX 1905 and 2011 are the current levels to watch.

spxdaily1.png

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

If Caldaro is right about Minor 1,

then this Wave 5 IN STOCKS could go much higher.

 

One thing that makes me think that count MAY be right is:

The Weak Commodity prices (= Deflation), which takes the pressure off for tightening.

 

In fact, the price action is so weak, it will keep the pressure on for stimulus, I reckon.

 

At the same time, I think weather patterns may force Food prices higher, later this year.

(I am hearing much talk about drought in much of the US West and Southwest.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

GMO hitting Corn prices?

 

=

If we are going to get a 38.2% retracement in CORN and WEAT, it must be near current levels.

 

Looking at the Commodities...

 

 

Hmm. Here's a possible reason for Corn's fall that I hadn't thought about.

 

"China last year sharply curtailed imports of U.S. Corn... " (in Nov. 2013) - WSJ

Why?

Because "after its tests, found some shipments of US corn contained Agrisure Viptera,

a genetic modification developed by Syngenta..."

 

A suit from US agri-giant Cargill "accuses Syngenta of acting irresponsibly by selling the seeds

to US farmers..."

Syngenta of Basel, Switzerland has been selling its seeds in the US since 2011.

GMO Labeling laws in the EU make it difficult to sell the seeds in Europe

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Is a Squeeze coming to the Silver market?

If so, will we see it before the end of 2014?

Those are two of the questions that I will ask in this podcast.

===========

Is a Squeeze coming to the Silver market?

If so, will we see it before the end of 2014?

Those are two of the questions that I will consider in this podcast.

An INTRO-duction to the Silver Market be heard in my last Video from a month ago, when I recommended that people start watching Silver again. At below $20 an ounce, I believed the price was cheap enough to be of real interest. The normal season patterns suggested a price low in August, with a solid price rise in September - that's what we usually see.

Since Mid-August we have seen a drop of about $1.00. Last Friday, the 12th, the Silver price closed at $18.62, and during the NY trading day, it hit a low of $18.45. An even lower price was hit in overnight trading. By comparison, the silver etf, SLV closed at $17.89, that's 13 cents ABOVE the day's low of $17.76. The Friday low is only a penny above the intraday low we saw back at the end of June 2013. If the Bulls are fortunate, we have just seen an import double bottom in Silver on Friday.

Why was the Silver price weak into September?

As it happens, we are seeing weakness in nearly all of the commodities markets. Gold also fell. It closed at $1,231.50, only $50- or 3.9 % above the low at the end of 2013. Meantime, the CRB (281.06 vs 272.04) - was only 3.5% above the 2013 low. Many other commodity prices are now below the lowest prices of 2013. Corn ($338.50 vs $406.25) closed Friday at 16.7% below 2013's lowest level. And Sugar's ($0.138 vs $0.147-'14 vs $0.159-'13) close on Friday was a new low for 2014, and 13.2% below the lowest of 2013. Even WTI Crude oil made a new low for the year this past week, just below $91. The big picture however, is the strength in the US dollar, which made a new High for the year last week. DXY ($84.20 vs $80.) is up 5% on the year, with all of that gain coming since the end of June.

Even so, if we adjust for the 5% gain in the dollar, many commodity price still look weak. WTI calculated in Euros is now on the bottom of its price channel. And Corn, Wheat and Sugar prices in Euros are at their low of the year.

What's going to turn this slide around? Fundamentally, these price drops must be giving us some warnings about the state of the global economy. The EU has recently eased rates , and moved into its own version of QE. With the weak commodity prices of the last several weeks, I will be surprised if the Fed tightens at all this year. The Fed will not want to risk a collapse when the world and the US seem to be in the grip of deflation.

This past weekend, I re-examined my cyclical assumptions. Normally, we get a August low in precious metals. This year it has extended into September. When I look at the price cycle in CRB and other commodites, I think we can be seeing the 6-8 month cycle bottom right now in mid-September. If we see that, the that should bode well for precious metals for the rest of the month and into October. If the commodity price slide does not reverse soon, then I think we may soon eb reading more and more about Deflation, and that will put pressure on the Fed to add stimulus and delay any tightening moves.

===

There's another factor out there that requires close monitoring. That's the Silver market in China. I have been writing about it in my daily Diary. This past week it got much more attention - as Greg Hunter interviewed Silver analyst Harvey Organ - in a hard-hitting discussion, Organ made some dire predictions. The Podcast is entitled:

By December Whole Thing Going to Collapse : https://www.youtube....h?v=aZwSiHBxm0c

I have also been watching the Silver Inventories on the Shanghai Gold Exchange very closely. Up until very recently, the SGE price of Silver has been trading in line with the Comex price. That's cheap, so it made sense for Chinese merchants to take delivery, running those inventories down. And the Shanghai inventories have now reached a very low level, more than 90% below its peak of 18 months ago. The actual levels are down from about 36 million ounces, to under 3 million oz. in Chinese inventories. These low levels are not sustainable

And the market situation has now begun to transform in Shanghai. The SGE-Silver price has not fallen as much as Comex. The US price is down $1.00 in the last month, and Shanghai has only lost about 50 cents. So now Shanghai silver is trading at near a record premium to western silver prices.

That means the Chinese will stop running down their inventories, since the will not want to take delivery of expensive silver, when they can get it more cheaply elsewhere. So I expect physical Silver to now start moving again from West to East.

Chinese buying on Comex and in Western markets should help the Silver price recover from its recent dip. WATCH THIS CLOSELY ! It could get exciting very soon.

==

Harvey Organ thinks we could see a Silver price squeeze. He believes the Chinese hold most of the Comex long positions, and they will start taking deliveries. Comex now holds over 63 million ounces. If one quarter or one-third of that gets transferred to China to meet the needs of Chinese manufacturers, it could shift the squeeze physical silver from Shanghai to Comex. As the market begins to wake up to this possibility, we could see a rapid appreciation in Silver. And the boring market we have seen could get interesting pretty fast.

So watch closely the Inventory and Delivery figures, and watch for a reversal of the downwards trend in price inflation.

Thanks for listening, and don't forget to check my Blog called Gold Edge, and my diary on GEI - which usually has several comments and charts every day.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now
Sign in to follow this  

×