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drbubb

DrBubb's Diary - Sept. 2014 Trading - v.69

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Ferguson - "The Wealth is being sucked out of the community"

 

This is "by design" and "a very predictable thing."

The community is "designed not to have a civic pride" ... there's no where to gather.

"Trying to instill the notion of civic pride" - is doomed to fail in such a place

 

1407852507789_wps_11_Alamy_Live_News_E61

 

- so says Chuck Marohn of Strong Towns.

 

ST-MP3 : http://shoutengine.com/StrongTownsPodcast/StrongTownsPodcast-0189-designed-to-decline-3653.mp3

 

> ST: http://shoutengine.com/StrongTownsPodcast/designed-to-decline-3653

 

Brain-dead town planners should be called to account... for the damage they have done to communities.

The Auto-addicted planners have ruined the future of the place

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(the Latest Great or Lousy Prediction from Goldman)

 

Say it ain’t so Joe? Gold at US$1,050 by the end of 2014: Goldman Sachs

 

Stockhouse Editorial: 4 Comments| 2 days ago

Goldman Sachs Group Inc.’s head of commodities research Jeffrey Currie is telling investors to go short on gold.

“Our target at the end of the this year is US$1,050, really driven by the view that we think that the Fed will ultimately be the dominant force here and put more downward pressure [on prices],” Currie told CNBC on Thursday.

That compares to the 2014 low of US$1,244 on June 2. (Spot gold traded Thursday at US$1,259.16).
“Gold is a hedge against a debasement in the U.S. dollar,’’ Currie said, adding that he’d recommend shorting gold.

Currie went on to say that gold is caught between three different dynamics:

One is Russia/Ukraine tensions, which are putting upward pressure on gold.

Secondly, weakness in Europe and Japan has created an inflow into U.S. treasuries, putting downward pressure on interest rates and upward pressure on gold.

However, he said those factors are being overshadowed by U.S. Federal Reserve policy, and a tightening of the money supply.

Still, other observers are a bit surprised to hear that gold is poised to lose 30% of its value by year-end.
“We haven’t had a particularly bullish viewpoint,” said Martin Murenbeeld, Chief Economist at Dundee Capital Markets.
“But to get to the US$1,050 level there has to be an awful lot of selling,’’ he said.
Murenbeeld wonders where the selling is going to come from.
“It won’t be the central banks, it won’t be China and it won’t be India,’’ he said
. . .
Comments by the Goldman Sachs analyst came as December gold bullion fell US$3.80 to US$1,266.50 an ounce
==

Read more at http://www.stockhouse.com/news/newswire/2014/09/04/say-it-ain-t-so-joe-gold-us$1-050-end-2014-goldman-sachs#Me54RvxHVToZVhJc.99

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USD : I will be watching DXY, the etf for the trade-weighted US Dollar, this week

 

DXY : Last: $ 83.764 ... 10-day / GLD-10d : SLV-10d : GDX-10d : GDXJ-10d :

 

DXY_zps8d6c88f9.gif

 

I want to see if there are signs of a Top being put in place at around DXY-84... All Data

 

DXY-All_zpscf515dbe.gif

 

RSI at 80 is a real warning sign.

However, please note that the High in DXY is often put in AFTER the high in RSI

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FXE / The Euro etf

 

EXCERPT - from latest email from Neowave

Of the four markets NEoWave follows, trading in the Euro has been the best for many months. Weekly traders have been Short this market since mid-July and are currently in an open-trade profit of more than $7,000 per contract. Monthly traders have been Long the EUO (an inverse ETF) since the same mid-July period - that position is up more than 8%.

In case you follow or have interest in the Euro, the latest NEoWave Trading and Forecasting services are attached, to get you up-to-date.


Sincerely, Glenn Neely, NEoWave, Inc.

======

 

(Note: Following are the comments of Dr Bubb, not Neowave)

 

FXE / etf for the Euro - Next key support (per this chart) is FXE- 126.0 - 126.3

FXE_zps4f64b478.png

 

 

If we repeat the pattern of Summer 2012, a bit more downside is possible.

Another potentiality, is the FXE breaks support at 126, and goes much lower.

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Is ANOTHER HEAD FAKE Emerging?

 

Gold Juniors have shown a very nice 3% bounce (on Friday)

 

GDXJ ... 10-days / Last: $39.30 +$1.14 : +2.99% : vol. 8.49 million

GDXJ-10d_zps6df683df.gif

 

GDXJ ... Daily Chart

GDXJ_zpsd4b8ca0a.gif

 

GDXJ -in-FXE... is still struggling near the top of a channel

 

GDXJ-inFXE_zpsccab7062.png

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False Flag warning

Also QE is coming to an end.... Which is basically protection money. ..So they need a reason to collapse the economy and start paying them off all over gain

 

BE CAREFUL !

 

9/9 Tomorrow may bring another False Flag event

 

ISIS has been set up as the obvious scapegoats

 

Avoid public places, that are obvious targets... especially in symbolic cities

Rumors are heavy that it might be a Shopping Mall attacked with a Nuke.

But that is only one possibility

 

BTW,

I don't mind you passing this on, because it is said that the more widely an event is

anticipated, the less likely it is to happen. If nothing happens, I will be very happy.

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Gold down $11 to $1257.40 - that's BELOW the level of last week

 

t24_au_en_usoz_6.gif : t24_ag_en_usoz_2.gif : idx24_usd_en_2.gif

 

That's a bigger drop than I would have expected on a day when the USD isn't doing much.

 

Gold has been doing a pretty good job at defying my expectations (so far) for some

Seasonal strength in September. Silver is holding better (so far) : 3-days has fallen

 

I will be looking for an explanation:

 

+ Tomorrow's a holiday in HK, and maybe in Shanghai too, so Chinese buying may be slow

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Gold Extends Early Losses, Hits 3-Month Low, on Technical Selling, Strong Greenback

- Kitco News, Sep 8 2014 10:49AM

 

Gold prices have extended their mild early losses to trade moderately lower in late-morning dealings Monday. December Comex gold poked to a three-month low as technical selling is featured amid a near-term price downtrend, including some sell stop orders being triggered. The rallying U.S. dollar index that hit a 13-month high Monday is also a bearish weight on the precious metals markets. December gold last traded down $8.70 an ounce at $1,258.60.

 

silver.gif

 

Silver is all the way down to near $19.00... and lower. Looking Ugly

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New Lows in Silver - Could this finally be the 5th (of 5th) ?

 

/ if a turn is going to happen, I'd like to see SLV and GDXJ reverse strongly upwards /

 

SLV ... update

slv_zps34283c20.png

 

It is needed to finish the down move (possibly)

/ thanks to Happy Charts /

silver02sep14daily.png

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New Lows in Silver - Could this finally be the 5th (of 5th) ?

 

. . .

 

It is needed to finish the down move (possibly)

/ thanks to Happy Charts /

silver02sep14daily.png

 

 

Just to give credit where credits due ... the chart & wave count comes from Elliot Wave Gold . Her count suggests we are at a crucial point in Silver (either bullish or very bearish). Note, Lara herself still favours the bearish count, e.g., see her latest video on Gold:

 

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pGh1K8NsINk&list=UUK5sgIqry2y4XyyONmAYTjw

 

For what its worth, tea leaves and all ;-)

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^ not meaning to clutter your thread: the above video is from August ... I can't seem to link the current (very bearish) take on Gold, but it is currently featured on the front page - 5th September And, I don't have any affiliation w/ the blog, just seems like an interesting count at this point in the market.

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^ not meaning to clutter your thread: the above video is from August ... I can't seem to link the current (very bearish) take on Gold, but it is currently featured on the front page - 5th September And, I don't have any affiliation w/ the blog, just seems like an interesting count at this point in the market.

 

thanks.

I get that - she has labeled this move as a possible wave 1 down, and only a move above $19.90 would invalidate that.

But I think some sort of rally is now due. If it struggles, then her Bearish count may be right.

 

Certainly, we must accept the Bear case is possible. And I will be watching the price action closely.

 

My more Bullish view has not had any real traction - so caution is the right approach now, probably

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(From The Fed's Folly thread):

An update should be useful... (as of Sept. 2014)

 

It's not Bernanke's Folly anymore - It just the Fed's Folly

 

The forecast of a light bounce in Housing...

mulliganbubble.jpg

 

Was right... Based on PHM ... update

PHM-2001_zps4271ed16.png

 

But that might be finishing soon - Clif High is expecting a crash in US housing to start any day now.

 

"When does the Bonds Bubble burst?
Does it burst when Short Term rates tick up? Or does it require a bigger rise in short rates?"

 

TLT / We are still awaiting the Right shoulder (or a New high) in the T-Bond Rally ... update

TLT2_zps09120a44.gif

 

If you look closely, you will see a correlation between PHM and TLT ... update

 

PHMetc_zps67360390.png

 

This should not be surprising, since low LT rates help home prices to rise.

 

I marked with a blue box, where the two prices were in harmony with each other, and with a pink box, where they were moving in opposite directions. I nearly put a pink box in 2014, since we have seen a rise in TLT (drop in rates) without any progress in PHM. This suggests the rally in US housing is now very tired, since it is not responding to lower long rates.

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Banker's complaining ... FT articles:

 

+ "Wall St squeezed middle stranded in 'few hundred thousand' bracket (FT, pg.1)

 

+ "Top rung more distant for Wall St bankers" (FT, pg.17)

=== ===

Promotions are becoming scarcer, for those in their 30's and 40's (at the middle levels)

 

This reflects "job cuts across the board" - headcount in trading areas has fallen by 30%, 50% on some desks

 

At Goldman Sachs the number promoted to "partner managing directors" may be near 2012's "historic low" of 72.

 

"People haven't made much money, and they haven't been able to retire."

Now they are staying until they are 52 or 55.

Only the good managers, and "really good politicians" are making it to the top rung.

=== ===

IMPACT?

Angry bankers are not "more moral"

Less luxury goods and luxury homes will be bought by these guys (and gals)

Luxury rents, on flats in places like HK, may stay under pressure

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Some of the more Open-minded readers here, may want to participate in the Beta-testing

=

I AM LOOKING FOR BETA-TESTERs !!

 

a_zpsda251a21.gif : Click on Link(s) at the Top of GEI-website or below

 

it is for GEI's newly rebooted "A-Core" Networking section:

 

========

 

What HELP is Needed?

Just this: Visit these sections, and post a few comments, as you think is appropriate.

(Suggestions on how to improve the networking experience are welcome.)

 

This is to pick up where the old GEI-Networking section left off, and also to invite NEW PEOPLE,

who may be a bit too "New Age-oriented" to post in the traditional GEI trading and discussion sections.

This new part of the site is for them. But there will also be discussion of projects and entrepreneurial activities.

 

From the Beta-stage Acore website, this will help to describe:

 

"Enough people are awake now, to change the world...
But they need to be working together, with common intent."
(Zen Gardner)

Links to Awakening Core Forums:
A-Core (Public)
A-Core (Private)
Join: Acore/GEI

Join our Awakening Core Team (ACT)...

The Forums are for communication and networking. The long term plans aim for something much bigger than just chat. We expect to offer videos, interviews, research, breaking-News, Skype chatrooms, and more. Depending on the intent of our members, we may also have conferences, and events, and perhaps activities at the local level. The idea for ACT grew out of a desire for self-government, and the idea of "setting up a government as it should be... with Wisdom councils." These would ideally involve active participation by elders, scientists, and shaman, rather than the same-old psychopathic politicians.

The initial focus will be on communications: Creating and building a Forum, making videos to help advance the A-Core projects, as well as on subject that are in harmony with ACT's objectives.

=

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Scotland : A YES?

It can ! It must !

 

Anything that pokes a stick in the eye of the Globalists,

and swings power back towards Local autonomy, can only be good.

The Globalists have THEIR OWN interests in mind, Not Yours !

 

"A little Norway, with a serious Financial Sector?"

Here's a Guy arguing THAT, more-or-less.

 

Yeah. That's good branding

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GOLD's New dynamic

 

In days of old...

Of Gold got whacked, it mostly happened on a Friday...

In NY, after European trading.

 

Now we are seeing big drops at the beginning of the week.

Often in early NY trading, or even before

 

Is China cooperating?

 

(Frankly, I am very frustrated with the price now.

It has failed to perform after getting into several good set-ups.

It is very weak for this time of year - in Sept.)

 

Lower End Of Range Near $1,240 Key Chart Point For Comex Gold - optionsXpress - Kitco News, Sep 9 2014 11:23AM

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HOW ODD - note that Silver has hardly moved - when measured in RMB

 

SILVER Top of Page :

 

t24_ag_en_usoz_2.gif : AgTD0.png?id=11406021131 : SLV-live

> SGE - Site : http://www.sge.sh/pu...sgeen/index.htm

Calc: AG-Shang.: 4,200 RMB/kg / 6.150 = $ 683 / 35.274 = $19.36 (discount: about 20 cents?)

4142 /6.15 = 673.5 / 35.27 = $19.10 +0.25= $19.35 / 1.04 = 18.60

 

 

silver.gif =

========

 

At Rmb 4145, that the same level as when Silver was $19.55 ... (now below $19.00)

So is the white metal flooding into China?

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Biggest drop in Equities in many days (though it is not so large)

 

Sep: -SPY-: Chg : volume/ -GDX : Chg. : -GLD- : Chg : volume: x10.3? : WTI.Cr: -DXY-- -Chg- : --TLT--: -Chg- : Posts= / Views: cum'l
07: 201.11 - sun- : 00.0M: 25.07 +0.00 : 122.06 - sun- : 0.00M: 1,269.3 $93.43* 83.764 - 0.000 : 115.73 - 0.00 : 06 : 054 / 060 : 0,843 /
08: 200.59 - 0.52 : 64.1M: 24.19 - 1.88 : 120.73 - 1.33 : 7.51M: 1,256.3 $96.12* 84.290 +0.526 : 115.78 +0.05 : 07 : 061 / 110 : 0,953 /
09: 199.32 - 1.27 : 82.4M: 24.56 +0.37 : 120.87 +0.14 : 6.09M: 1,256.6 $95.75* 84.100 - 0.190 : 115.69 - 0.09 : 06 : 067 / 115 : 1,068 /

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Yet another decent set-up for a Rally.

 

Will this one be wasted too?

 

GDXJ / Junior Gold shares ... update / GDX : SLV : AGQ-vs.GDX

 

GDXJ : Last: $38.45 +$1.19 +3.19% /O:37.30 H:38.74 L:36.76
(A nice reversal! Up, from low: +$1.69, that's +4.60%)

 

GDXJ-10d_zps77222cba.gif

 

Back above the 110-period MA.

Next target is the 208-p MA

 

. . .
GDXJ : $38.45 +$1.19 : +3.19% : 10.83 mn
GDX- : $24.56 +$0.37 : +1.53% : 29.29 mn
SLV - : $18.31 +$0.05 : +0.27% : 6.10 mn
s/gdx : 74.55%
AGQ- : $58.11 +$0.33 : +0.57% : 166,880
NUGT : $35.29 +$1.40 : +4.13% : 4.54 mn
GLD- : 120.87 +$0.14 : +0.12% : 6.09 mn

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Here's a nice sober forecast for you

 

THE YEAR 2021: $10,000 Gold & $700 Silver - An Empirical Model

 

= https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=G1dUtRRms7g =

 

Published on Sep 7, 2014

Deviant Investor 's Gary Christenson joins me to discuss his new book 'Gold Value and Gold Prices From 1971 - 2021'. Gary's empirical model projects a Gold price of $10,000 by the year 2021 and a Silver price any where from $500 - $1,000. Gary notes that these numbers are based on simple mathematical projections using current levels of government spending which will undoubtedly continue unabated. Gary's conservative empirical model does NOT even factor in the possibility of US debt default, Weimar-style hyperinflation of the Dollar or other dramatic economic catastrophes.

Gary's website: http://deviantinvestor.com/
For REAL News & Information 24/7: http://sgtreport.com/

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But will $700 silver actually have enough value to buy anything?

 

It's a very scary forecast.

 

I am listening to it now.

He also talks about a 7-year cycle in equities:

 

1987 + 7: 1994 + 7: 2001 +7: 2008 +7 = 2014-15 ?

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t24_ag_en_usoz_2.gif : AgTD0.png?id=11406021131 : SLV-live

> SGE - Site : http://www.sge.sh/pu...sgeen/index.htm

Calc: AG-Shang.: 4,167 RMB/kg / 6.150 = $ 677.6 / 35.274 = $19.21

 

SILVER price, Shanghai / OpenInterest - SGE

 

AGt+d : Price : Open.Int = $-eqv. : -SLV- : Prem% : Au9999 : AUt+d

10-sep : 4,167 : 5,264kS = 19.21 : ?? .?? : +4.0%? : r248.46 : 143.2.kL

09-sep : 4,150 : 5,281kS = 19.13 : 18.31 : +5.46% : r248.38 : 145.2kL

29-aug : 4,206 : 5,290k? = 19.39 : 18.71 : +3.63% : r255.04 : 142.1kL

15-aug : 4,250 : 5,097k? = 19.59 : 18.86 : +3.87% : r260.14 : 130.7k :

31-july : 4,298 : 4,977k? = 19.81 : 19.58 : +1.17% : r257.79 : 127.7k :

15-july : 4,322 : 4,700k? = 19.93 : 19.88 : +0.25% : r261.73 : 134.3k :

30-jun. : 4,272 : 4,319k? = 19.69 : 20.25 : - 2.77% : r261.86 : 142.2k :

30-may: 4,058 : 4,622k? = 18.71 : 18.08 : +3.48% : r252.80 : 139.0k :

=====

The $-eqv. price = RMB / 216.91 : ratio to SLV "should" be +4.00% approx.

==

> source: http://www.sge.sh/publish/sgeen/sge_price/sge_price_daily/index.htm

 

Right now, SLV looks undervalued versus the Shanghai Silver price.

With Shanghai Silver at Rmb 4,167 = US$19.21 equiv.,

SLV "should" be about x 96% = $18.44, having closed yesterday at $18.31.

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Oil has (quietly?) fallen to a Key Support level, just over $91

 

WTI_zpsebc00de4.png

 

Yesterday's LOD was $91.22, at the support line

 

Here's a ratio I watch sometimes: WTI-to-OIH (Oil Service shares)

 

AA_zps92a507e7.png

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