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drbubb

DrBubb's Diary - Sept. 2014 Trading - v.69

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Tony C: "The Largest Correction since 2011" may be coming soon

 

LONG TERM: bull market

 

As we start our 10th year of publishing this blog it appears the market is entering another inflection point. The bulls have won them all since 2010, with the exception of 2011. Is another exception in the offering, or is Primary III set to extend once again? The next several days to weeks will give us the answer.

 

spxweekly4.png?w=640&h=484

 

Last weekend we offered a potential alternate count should Primary III extend. Yet, we continue to follow our main count which has worked well for us this year. As you can see from the weekly chart: the SPX should be in Intermediate wave v, of Major 5, of Primary III. When this uptrend concludes, Primary III ends, and the largest correction since 2011 should follow for Primary IV

 

. . .

 

SHORT TERM

 

spxhourly4.png?w=640&h=484

> more: http://caldaro.wordpress.com/2014/08/30/weekend-update-463/

 

 

From today's update: "After the open the market reached the inflection point. It now has three options. (1). most bullish: the pullback underway continues lower, but the 5 waves up from SPX 1905 is only Minor 1 of Int. v. (2). less bullish: today’s pullback is only Minute ii of Minor 5, and the market should continue higher. (3). bearish: today’s high marked the end of the uptrend including Primary III, and Primary IV is underway. With negative divergences on every timeframe it appears it is time to get cautious."

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(1). most bullish: the pullback underway continues lower, but the 5 waves up from SPX 1905 is only Minor 1 of Int. v.

(2). less bullish: today’s pullback is only Minute ii of Minor 5, and the market should continue higher.

(3). bearish: today’s high marked the end of the uptrend including Primary III, and Primary IV is underway.

With negative divergences on every timeframe it appears it is time to get cautious."

 

That last... is something to LOOK OUT for.

I get the sense that the USD is (also) very close to a peak

 

GOLD AND GOLD SHARES are at a great point for a Rally to start

 

Gold

Gold2_zps68cf7948.png

 

GDXJ

GDXJ_zps12fee53f.png

 

Comparison ... update

GDXetc_zps02de1cfb.gif

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Silver prices

 

: t24_ag_en_usoz_2.gif: AgTD0.png?id=11406021131 :

 

- A Big GAP has been left behind from yesterday's Drop ... update : It is about $19.17 - $19.37,

or about Rmb 4157 - 4200

China: 4,200 RMB/kg / 6.150 = $ 683 / 35.274 = $19.36 (assuming a discount of about 00 cents)

China: 4,157 RMB/kg / 6.150 = $ 676 / 35.274 = $19.16

 

AB_zpsa6658321.gif

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DBA versus Silver and Gold shares

 

DBA - PowerShares DB Agriculture Fund vs. SLV and GDX ... update

DBAetc_zps4403a4a5.gif

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Jim Willie's latest news: "NATO is Dead!"

 

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tgOUazLGdhc

 

Europeans are fighting on the side of the East Ukranian "freedom fighters",

against US-backed Ukranians. and have captured a "Blackwater mercenary group" (per The Voice)

. . .

 

Jim Willie has some bullish remarks on Gold and especially on Silver, at the end

 

... meantime, the WSJ Reports:

 

Obama's Curious Rage
Wall Street Journal-Sep 1, 2014
Barack Obama "has become 'enraged' at the Israeli government, both for its actions and for its treatment of his chief diplomat, U.S. Secretary of ...

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KFG Resources Ltd ... update : 10-days

KFG_zpsc9d00f2c.gif

 

Obviously, this is now a news driven equity.

If you like the news, the buy point is 9-10 cents.

Minimum rally should be back to the high at 15 cents - Watch the volume.

Sell there, if it is weak, maybe

 

What's the news here?

Thanks Doc.

 

The news is basically increased resources and production (hoped).

 

I'm interested in that trend line you have drawn - how did you arrive at tht?

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I like to use parallel lines. Usually two main parallel, creating a channel, with a middle line.

 

This uptrend is parallel to the one discovered by connecting lows.

It doesn't always work, but often it does.

 

Someone bought a few shares at 8.5 cents on the opening Wed., sot it was briefly broken.

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God of Crude Oil Trading Bets Shale is a Dud

Andrew John Hall -- known as the God of Crude Oil Trading to some of his peers -- has built his success on a simple creed: Everyone who disagrees with him is wrong.

For most of the past 30 years, that has been a killer strategy. Like a poker player on an endless hot streak, Hall has made billions for the companies for which he’s traded by placing one aggressive bet after another. He was one of the few traders who anticipated both the run-up in and the eventual crash of oil prices in 2008.

Hall was so good that he bagged a $98 million payday in 2008, when he ran Citigroup Inc.’s Phibro LLC trading unit, and was up for about $100 million more in 2009.

In the end, Bloomberg Markets will report in its October 2014 issue, he couldn’t collect the 2009 payout from Citi because an anti–Wall Street backlash against the bank -- which had just received a $45 billion U.S. government bailout -- led regulators to block it. No such bonuses have awaited Hall of late. He’s racked up losses in two of the past three years.

His wager that oil prices would rise and rise has run headlong into an unanticipated energy revolution -- the frenetic push in the U.S. and elsewhere to wring crude out of shale. Shale drilling has boosted U.S. oil output to the highest level in 27 years; it helped the U.S. supply 84 percent of its energy demand last year. Oil prices, far from taking the upward trajectory Hall predicted, have been essentially unchanged since 2011.

==

More http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-09-03/trader-who-scored-100-million-payday-bets-shale-is-dud.html

 

I used to know some folks well who worked for Andy Hall, and he is definitely Legendary.

(But that was back in the days when I was a small Legend too, so my memory may be flawed.

It is not such a good thing to be legendary, especially in one's own mind.

Maybe that is how he got "three years of losses.")

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GAP FILLING... Again ?!

 

Sometimes it seems to me that the gold share market moves routinely from Creating Gaps,

to Filling them

 

GDX / Gold Miners etf ... 10 day chart

 

xx

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Sep : -SPY- : Chg : volume/ -GDX : Chg. : -GLD- : Chg : volume: x10.3? : WTI.Cr: --DXY-- -Chg- : --TLT--: -Chg- : Posts= / Views: cum'l
01: 200.71 - hol.- : 00.0M : 26.69 +0.00 : 123.86 - hol.- : 0.00M: 1,288.0 $95.84* 82.736 +0.000 : 119.05 +0.00 : 09 : 009 / 088 : 0,088 /

02: 200.61 - 0.10 : 64.8M: 25.81 - 0.88 : 121.65 - 2.21 : 10.1M: 1,266.5 $93.25* 82.971 +0.235 : 116.73 - 2.05 : 17 : 026 / 169 : 0,257 /
03: 200.50 - 0.11 : 53.7M: 27.78 - 0.03 : 122.15 +0.50 : 3.39M: 1,270.0 $95.08* 82.887 - 0.084 : 117.38 +0.65 : 07 : 033 / 132 : 0,389 /

 

Note how;

The drop in Gold (and GDX) was accompanied by a big drop in TLT

 

So the Gold-to-TLT ratio fell less than I first thought it had...

Sep : -GLD- : Chg : volume: Gold : --TLT--: -Chg- : RATIO
01: 123.86 - hol.- : 0.00M: 1,288.0: 119.05 +0.00 : 10.82
02: 121.65 - 2.21 : 10.1M: 1,266.5: 116.73 - 2.05 : 10.85
03: 122.15 +0.50 : 3.39M: 1,270.0: 117.38 +0.65 : 10.82

In fact, it ROSE from 10.82, to 10.85 on Tuesday, as Bond fell slightly More than Gold

03: 122.15 +0.50 : 3.39M: 1,270.0: 117.38 +0.65 :

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US Dollar is jumping : + 0.43 !!

 

idx24_usd_en_2.gif

 

DXY ... 10-Day chart : 6-months-D : all-data-Wk :

 

AB_zpse26ad806.gif

 

DXY-all_zps511b16e9.gif

 

I said a day or two ago we might see a TOP and a reversal in the USD's strength this week.

Sentiment is becoming way too one-sided and Bullish

 

(this article covers some of the issues, but is not up-to-date):

The US dollar is super strong now
CNNMoney-2 Sep 2014
You go, greenback! The U.S. dollar is mightier than it has been in more than a year. That may be great news for consumers. But if dead ...

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Here we go - What's pushing the Euro down

 

ECB Cuts 10 Basis Points Across The Board - Kitco News, Sep 4 2014 7:48AM

PRECIOUS-Gold up slightly from 2-1/2 month low before ECB meeting - Reuters, Sep 4 2014 7:12AM

 

NEWS LIKE THIS, and the panicky reaction,

is exactly what may be needed to put a USD top in place

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Silver +0.16 !

t24_ag_en_usoz_2.gif

 

Will we now see the second half of this great "head fake" - if the USD peaks?

 

I think... maybe... just possibly, we will (but TIME and the market will tell its own story)

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From today's update: "After the open the market reached the inflection point. It now has three options. (1). most bullish: the pullback underway continues lower, but the 5 waves up from SPX 1905 is only Minor 1 of Int. v. (2). less bullish: today’s pullback is only Minute ii of Minor 5, and the market should continue higher. (3). bearish: today’s high marked the end of the uptrend including Primary III, and Primary IV is underway. With negative divergences on every timeframe it appears it is time to get cautious."

 

Wednesday's update:

 

"Of the three options noted yesterday, two of the three were eliminated at the open. With today’s afternoon pullback to SPX 1998 we are now seeing some choppy activity from the Minor wave 4 low at 1991. We have a rally-pullback SPX 2006-1995, and now another rally-pullback SPX 2009-1998. This morning we labeled the 2006-1995 sequence as Minute waves i and ii of Minor 5. But today’s 2009-1998 sequence appears to be a bit odd, during this uptrend, for a Minute iii. With the much awaited ECB statement tomorrow we remain cautious."

 

sc_zps823b4c2d.png

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Bitcoin : Down-channel now in place :
=======
Charts: Bitcoins LIVE : BTC:1-year : 4-mos : 10d : Ticks : BtcWisdom : BTC-24hours

chart.png?m=bitstampUSD&v=1&t=S&noheader

BTS - Frozen / Bitcoins, on Bitstamps ; 10-Days: http://tinyurl.com/bts-10d : 6-mos
BTC_zps533fe585.png

================
Gold / USD / china gold // gdx : n s a :
t24_au_en_usoz_6.gif : 24hr-euro-small.gif : AuTD0.png?id=11406031228
AG - T + D / Calculations
AgTD0.png?id=11406021131 : t24_ag_en_usoz_2.gif: 3-days
> SGE - Site : http://www.sge.sh/publish/sgeen/index.htm
Calculations:
AG-Shanghai : 4,200 RMB/kg (ct. is 15 kg)
/ CNY exch. Rate
/ 6.150 = $ 683 / 35.274 = $19.36 (I observed a discount of about 20 cents)
==============

ORIGINAL POST :

... and for what its worth . . . US Stock Market & Ebola


cli.ebola-spx-correlation-1975-2014.jpg

cli.ebola-djia-correlation-1975-2014.jpg

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Silver +0.16 !

t24_ag_en_usoz_2.gif : idx24_usd_en_2.gif

 

Will we now see the second half of this great "head fake" - if the USD peaks?

 

I think... maybe... just possibly, we will (but TIME and the market will tell its own story)

 

I posted too soon.(!)

Silver's spike up peaked around there, and has now pulled back to -0.02

(The spike UP seems to have peaked right on the 8d-MA.)

And

The Dollar has continued to soar : DXY now up 1.00 !!!

CHART : DXY-10d

This move must be cleaning out all the Buy stops... Everyone is getting Long USD now.

It will be interesting to see where DXY is after NY trading, and at the week's end (tomorrow)

 

I think it is constructive that Gold and Silver are near UNCH.

on a day when the dollar has soared more than 1%.

It is hard to recall the last time we saw that

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I posted too soon.(!)

Silver's spike up peaked around there, and has now pulled back to -0.02

(The spike UP seems to have peaked right on the 8d-MA.)

And

The Dollar has continued to soar : DXY now up 1.00 !!!

CHART : DXY-10d

This move must be cleaning out all the Buy stops... Everyone is getting Long USD now.

It will be interesting to see where DXY is after NY trading, and at the week's end (tomorrow)

 

I think it is constructive that Gold and Silver are near UNCH.

on a day when the dollar has soared more than 1%.

It is hard to recall the last time we saw that

 

 

More a case of EUR and CHF getting sold (and to a slightly lesser extent GBP) ? AUD and CAD up on the day.

 

Viz. "ECB cuts rates again as Europe's economy stalls"

 

ScreenShot2014-09-04at74925pm_zpsb55e72e

ScreenShot2014-09-04at73954pm_zps28266e5[/url]

 

ScreenShot2014-09-04at74006pm_zpsf75ff28

 

ScreenShot2014-09-04at74019pm_zps284cd5e

 

ScreenShot2014-09-04at74047pm_zpsd10ef23

 

ScreenShot2014-09-04at74036pm_zps2066ef5

 

ScreenShot2014-09-04at74230pm_zpsb4b8d57

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Gold and Silver (priced in USD) eventually became Losers on this day of Dollar strength / Euro etc weakness

 

( the Euro had hits largest drop since 2011)

 

No signs at all of a reversal (and I am left with some dark thoughts about NATO ... more later)

 

Comparing USD Gold with FXE Gold...

 

ETF- : $-Last : $-Chg. : %-chg. :
GLD : 121.49 : -$0.67 : - 0.55% :
Gold: 1261.7 : -$8.30 : - 0.65% :
TLT- : 115.95 : -$1.43 : - 1.22% :
G/-t : r 10.88 :
GDX : $24.88 : -$0.90 : - 3.50% :
Gdxj : $38.16 : -$2.21 : - 5.47% :
SLV- : $18.32 : -$0.11 : - 0.60% :
S/-g : r73.6% :
FXE : 127.66 : -$1.98 : - 1.53% :
G/-e : r 9.883 : +0.09 : + 0.89% :
GOLD-toFXE_zps99cdd83f.png

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HOW MUCH DAMAGE ? ... from Thursday's moves ?

 

(in edit, later):

Comments by the Goldman Sachs analyst came as December gold bullion fell US$3.80 to US$1,266.50 an ounce

 

HK-2840 / HK's Gold etf ... update : w/o Box

HK2840_zpscd01b8c5.gif

 

GDX / etf for Gold shares ... update : GDXJ :

GDX_zpsdc2eec69.gif

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Shanghai Silver has not participated in the Price drop

 

Rmb 4,165 / 6.150 = $ 677.2 / 35.274 = $19.20 (big premium to Silver)!

Now at a 17 cent Premium - that's a 37 cent swing from

Silver's prior 20 cent premium to Shanghai - see below:

AG - T + D / Calculations
AgTD0.png?id=11406021131 : t24_ag_en_usoz_2.gif
> SGE - Site : http://www.sge.sh/publish/sgeen/index.htm

Old Calculation:
AG-Shanghai : 4,200 RMB/kg (ct. is 15 kg)
/ CNY exch. Rate
/ 6.150 = $ 683 / 35.274 = $19.36 (I observed a discount of about 20 cents)
==============

 

4200 to 4165 is a drop of only 0.83 % - equivalent to 17 cents on $20 Silver.

And Rmb 4200 was near the best price of last two weeks

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TONY C: "We now have five waves up from the recent SPX downtrend low at 1905."

 

For the bears, this could suggest a Primary wave III top.

For the bulls, only wave one of a potentially extending uptrend. We currently give both the main count and the alternate count equal probability, while we await further price action in the indices and clarification of the ABS program. Obviously it was an emotional day for traders.

 

Short term support is at SPX 1991 and the 1973 pivot, with resistance at SPX 2011 and the 2019 pivot. Short term momentum dropped from overbought to oversold. The short term OEW charts flip-flopped again today, ending negative, with the reversal at SPX 2003. Best to your Payrolls trading day!

 

MEDIUM TERM: uptrend

LONG TERM: bull market

CHARTS: http://stockcharts.com/public/1269446/tenpp

> source: http://caldaro.wordpress.com/2014/09/04/thursday-update-446/

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seems the bear case is slowly gaining traction ... and all the tea leaves are falling into place (Caldaro's wave count w/ Armstrongs ECM peak of 3rd/4th September)

ecm-wave-2011-2020.jpg

 

will be interesting to see how this pans out.

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/ Gold Shares suffer big on small Gold price decline /

... as Wheat hit a new Low, on an UP week in the DBA Ag. Fund

=== Last WEEK's MOVES ==== : on Friday 09/05 alone = :

GLD : 123.86 : - 1.45 % / 122.06 : +0.58 : +0.48% / 3.36 M

GDX : $26.69 : - 6.07 % > $25.07 : +0.19 : +0.76% / 29.30 M

Ratio: R4.641 : + 4.91 % / R 4.869 (GLDx10.400 = $1,269.3)

Gdxj : $42.10 : - 6.65 % / $39.30 : +1.14 : +2.99% : 8.49 M

ASA : $14.42 : - 6.03 % / $13.55 : +0.02 : +0.15% : 66,226

Nugt : $45.74: -17.71 % / $37.64 : +0.68 : +1.84% : 3.39 M

SPRD 795.00 : - 1.17 % / 785.73 = 25.26 mn oz. Gold stored

TLT- : 119.05 : - 2.79 % / 115.73 : -0.22 : -0.19% : 6.69 mn

G/Tlt : 10.82 :: + 1.01 % / 10.97 -> Back at Low under 11.0

S/Tlt : 15.72% + 1.21 % / 15.91% > New Bottom below 15.8%

===

SLV : $18.71 : - 1.55 % / $18.42 : +0.10 : +0.55% : 5.30 mn

SIL- : $13.76 : - 7.34 % / $12.75 : +0.08 : +0.63% : 138,516

DBA : $25.46 : + 3.81 % / $26.43 : +0.05 : +0.19% : 148,011

VDC : 117.14 : + 0.75 % / 118.02 : +0.63 : +0.54% : 34,511

Cop'r $3.135 : + 0.67 % / $3.156 : +0.018 : +0.57% : 0,419

WTI-: $95.84 : - 2.51 % / $93.43 : -1.15 : -1.22% : 250,145

CRB : 292.75 : - 1.62 % / 288.02 : -0.61 : -0.21% : View-Chart

CCI- : 516.84 : - 1.62 % / 508.47 : -3.41 : -0.67% : Vol. = 0

Wheat 563.0 : - 5.11 % / 534.25 : +4.25 : +0.80% : 48,169

Corn: 366.00 : - 2.52 % / 356.75 : +10.0 : +2.88% : 143,011

Sugar: .1550 : - 3.23 % / $.1500 : -0.001 : -0.92% : 60,057

BTC : $505.7 : - 5.08 % / $480.00 : -1.49% :

B/Gld 39.26%: - 3.68 % / 37.81 % : == A down week

===

FXI - : $40.47 : + 5.07 % / $42.52 : +0.33 : +0.78% : 13.09 mn

PHM : $19.22 : - 3.59 % / $18.53 : -0.01 : -0.05% : 2.57 mn

IYR- : $74.20 : + 0.84 % / $74.82 : +0.70 : +0.94% : 12.98 mn

XLF- : $23.36 : + 0.43 % / $23.46 : +0.03 : +0.13% : 24.05 mn

SPY- : 200.71 : + 0.20 % / 201.11 : +0.90 : +0.45% : 90.19 mn

Xlf/Spy 11.64% + 0.21 % / 11.67% -> Flat +/-0.5%

IWM- : 116.56 : - 0.15 % / 116.38 : +0.37 : +0.32% : 25.55 mn

DXY- : 82.736 : + 1.24 % / 83.764 : -0.082 : -0.10% : N / A

Hgold : 15.57 : + 0.00 % / 15.15 (dxy83.764) New Low 15.00

=====

 

Big Movers: Near 5% or more
=========
Nugt : $45.74: -17.71 % / $37.64 :
SIL- : $13.76 : - 7.34 % / $12.75 :

Gdxj : $42.10 : - 6.65 % / $39.30 :

GDX: $26.69 : - 6.07 % > $25.07 :

ASA : $14.42 : - 6.03 % / $13.55 :

Wheat 563.00 : - 5.11 % / 534.25 :

BTC : $505.7 : - 5.08 % / $480.00 :

 

(One Up mover):

FXI - : $40.47 : + 5.07 % / $42.52 :

 

This past week:

Comments by the Goldman Sachs analyst came as December gold bullion fell US$3.80 to US$1,266.50 an ounce

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GOLD related Headlines

 

Gold price extends losses for 7th day; down Rs 20 on ...

Zee News ‎- 13 hours ago

Extending losses for the seventh straight session, gold shed another Rs 20 to close at Rs 27750 per 10 grams in the national capital on ...

Forbes‎ - 1 day ago
=== ===
New Delhi: Extending losses for the seventh straight session, gold shed another Rs 20 to close at Rs 27,750 per 10 grams in the national capital on sustained selling by stockists against easing demand from jewellers and retailers, even as the metal recovered in global markets.

However, silver recovered by Rs 75 to Rs 42,075 per kg on increased offtake by industrial units.
Traders said sustained stockists selling against falling demand from jewellers and retailers mainly kept pressure on gold prices but a better trend in the global markets capped the losses.

. . .

Out of 37 participants, 22 responded this week. Of those, eight see higher prices, nine see lower prices and five see prices trading sideways or are neutral. Market participants include bullion dealers, investment banks, futures traders and technical-chart analysts.

Last week, survey participants were slightly bearish. As of 11:30 a.m. EDT, Comex December gold was down about $23 for the week.

Some who see higher prices said they think the recent strength in the U.S. dollar is due for a retreat.

“The … U.S. dollar is overbought technically and the economic news and central bank speculation that has been pushing it higher should fade next week, enabling gold to respond to the big increases coming to the ECB (European Central Bank) balance sheet between the September targeted LTRO (long-term refinancing operation) and ABS (asset-backed securities) purchases starting in October,” said Colin Cieszynski, senior market strategist at CMC Markets.

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