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DrBubb's Diary - Sept. 2014 Trading - v.69

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: Dr.B's Trading Diary : 2014, the Diary's 6th Year
ua51.jpg: g21g.png
-------> Link to here/Mar. : http://tinyurl.com/DrB-Mar14

DrBubb's Diary - Sept. 2014 Trading - v.69

 

xxx

 

DrBubb's Trading Diary ----- : :

======

Sep 14 : ??? posts / ? ? ? hits : : Is the seasonal correction in Gold completing?

Aug 14 : ??? posts / ? ? ? hits : : The Dollar stayed strong into Aug.

July 14 : ??? posts / ? ? ? hits : : USD Dollar's rally may be ending

Jun. 14 : ??? posts / ? ? ? hits : : Gold made a higher Low in early June

May 14 : ??? posts / ? ? ? hits : : Gold is searching for a higher Low

Apr. 14 : 151 posts / 2,278 hits : : Is this the end of stocks hovering at a high level ?

Mar. 14 : 203 posts / 2,900 hits : : Is a big slide in stocks about to begin ?
Feb.14 : 156 posts / 3,146 hits : : Will the Year of the Horse usher in rapid change ?

Jan. '14 : 161 posts / 7,323 hits : : Building a Top in Stocks, reviving Gold ?

Dec. 13 : 140 posts / 3,000 hits : : Santa Rally?, Setting up a Q1-2014 Peak?
Nov. 13 : 161 posts / 2,900 hits : : Stocks have bounced and continued rallying
Oct. 13 : 159 posts / 4,293 hits : : Stocks may have started a Correction

Sep 13 : 165 posts / 3,945 hits : : Will Seasonal Sept. be Good for Gold in 2013?
Aug 13 : 158 posts / 3,616 hits : : Oil's Upside break: False or not ?
July 13 : 269 posts / 4,838 hits : : Coming off Gold Low? - At fibo- $1,186.
Jun. 13 : 221 posts / 6,801 hits : : Gold Low retest, as stocks correct
May 13 : 236 posts / 4,689 hits : : Possible Gold Low in place, SPX top formation ?
Apr. 13 : 173 posts / 4,721 hits : : Gold may retest Low. as SPY puts in intermediate high
Mar.13 : 153 posts / 3,467 hits : : 2nd Kiss of GLD to SPY, and then takeoff time ?
Feb.13 : 122 posts / 2,910 hits : : Gold looking for its Low
Jan.13 : 126 posts / 2,741 hits : : A New Year & new risks of big Currency Dramas
====== (new Trading section)
Dec.12 : 167 posts / 3,835 hits : : Santa Rally, or will Santa jump off the Cliff?
===
/ Older Titles :: http://www.greenener...showtopic=17541
===========

 

The Fed's Racetrack: Gold (GLD) vs Stocks (SPY) ... update :vs.CRB : GLD-hr : SPY-hr : GLD/SPY-Ratio

FRT_zps0649e0ee.gif

 

The Fed's money-printing has maintained confidence in markets - but the money has gone not only into stocks, but also into other areas.

Obviously, money has also flowed into commodities like Gold, pushing prices higher even faster than stocks, as the chart above shows.

 

"Stocks-in-Euros" ... SPX-to-FXE or SPY-to-FXE Ratio ... update

SPX-toFXE_zpse8460ce7.png

 

This Ratio seemed to move in a nice clear channel - But I have had to keep changing the channel parameters

 

DrBubb's "Early Warning System"

Leading Ratio ... LQD:TLT-Weekly-3yrs : TLT-vsLQD : Copper : HG price : CU price : SPY-10/11 : SMH-6mos

lqdetc_zpse36b2381.png

 

I reckon that the LQD-to-TLT ratio should move in harmony with stocks, or maybe lead stock moves. If they are moving in different directions,

then one should be cautious.
=====

Bullish Percentages :
BPNYA : http://stockcharts.c...!Lh14,3]&pref=G
BPGDM : http://stockcharts.c...!Lh14,3]&pref=G
NASIT - : NAMOT : Summation Indices

"Big Three" Charts (SPY, GLD, DXY) ... 10d-Intraday : 6mos-D : 2yrs-D : 5yrs-D // CUvsGLDvsCRB

CUetc2_zpsecbb6895.gif

 

RECORD : CU may lead GLD and SPY lower
======

US Fed'l Debt // Formula: (Fed'l Debt - $4.0 Trillion ) x 119 +$100

 

Date-: DebtTr > G.Eqv /10.40 : - GLD - : - SPY - : -DIFF- : - ratio - : -- CU -- : cu/gld : - FXI - : cu-fxi : - DBA- : - BTC - :
end07: $09.23 > 0,722 : 072.2 : $082.46 : $146.21 : -63.75: 56.398% : $20.0e: XX.X% :: $ 17.05: ==== : $ 32.99 :
end08: $10.70 > 0,897 : 089.7 : $086.52 : $090.24 : -$3.72: 95.878% : $20.0e: XX.X% :: $ 29.09: ==== : $ 26.18 :
end09: $12.31 > 1,089 : 108.9 : $107.31 : $111.44 : -$4.13: 96.294% : $30.0e: XX.X% :: $ 42.26: ==== : $ 26.44 :
end10: $14.03 > 1,294: 129.4 : $138.74 : $125.75 : $12.99: 110.34% : $43.71: 31.51%: $ 43.09: $0.62: $ 32.35 : $ 00.29 :
Date--: DebtTr.> G.Eqv: /10.40:
end11: $15.22 > 1,435: 138.0 : $151.99 : $125.50 : $26.49: 121.11% : $29.29: 19.27%: $ 34.87: -5.58: $ 28.88 : $ 04.60 :
end12: $16.43 > 1,570: 151.0 : $162.02 : $142.41 : $19.61: 113.77% : $30.34: 18.73%: $ 40.45:-10.11: $ 27.95 : $ 13.48 :
end13: $17.35 > 1,689: 162.4 : $116.12 : $184.69 : -68.57 : 062.87% : $22.27: 19.18%: $ 38.37:-16.10: $ 24.25 :$815.00 :

(2011)
Date--: DebtTr.> G.Eqv: /10.40: -- GLD - : - SPY - : - DIFF- : -- ratio -- : -- CU - : cu /gld : -- FXI - : cu-fxi : - DBA - : - BTC - :
01/31: $14.13 > 1,000 : 100.0 : $129.87 : $128.68 : $01.19: 100.92% : $42.41: 32.66%: $ 42.55: - 0.04: $ 34.29 :
02/28: $14.19 > 1,000 : 100.0 : $137.66 : $133.15 : $04.51: 100.05% : $43.38: 31.48%: $ 42.45: $0.93: $ 34.97 :
03/31: $14.27 > 1,000 : 100.0 : $139.86 : $132.59 : $07.27: 105.48% : $43.59: 31.17%: $ 44.91: - 1.32: $ 34.23 :
04/29: $14.29 > 1,000 : 100.0 : $152.37 : $136.43 : $25.94: 111.68% : $46.40: 30.45%: $ 45.21: $1.19: $ 34.06 :
05/31: $14.34 > 1,000 : 100.0 : $149.64 : $134.90 : $14.74: 110.93% : $42.74: 28.56%: $ 45.37: - 2.63: $ 32.73 :
06/30: $14.34 > 1,330 : 127.9 : $146.00 : $131.97 : $14.03: 110.63% : $42.25: 28.94%: $ 42.95: - 0.70: $ 31.74 :
07/29: $14.34 > 1,000 : 100.0 : $158.29 : $129.33 : $28.96: 122.39% : $42.14: 26.62%: $ 42.36: - 0.24: $ 32.25 :
08/31: $14.68 > 1,000 : 100.0 : $177.72 : $122.22 : $55.50: 145.40% : $37.82: 21.28%: $ 38.63: - 0.81: $ 34.11 :
09/30: $14.79 > 1,000 : 100.0 : $158.06 : $113.15 : $44.91: 139.69% : $26.26: 16.61%: $ 30.83: - 4.57: $ 29.67 :
10/31: $14.99 > 1,000 : 100.0 : $167.34 : $125.50 : $41.84: 133.34% : $33.15: 19.81%: $ 36.06: - 2.91: $ 30.41 :
11/30: $15.11 > 1,000 : 100.0 : $170.13 : $124.99 : $45.14: 136.11% : $31.39: 18.45%: $ 36.22: - 4.83: $ 28.99 :
12/30: $15.22 > 1,435 : 138.0 : $151.99 : $125.50 : $26.49: 121.11% : $29.29: 19.27%: $ 34.87: - 5.58: $ 28.88 : $ 4.60
(2012)

01/31: $15.36 > 1,452 : 139.6 : $169.31 : $131.32 : $37.99: 128.93% : $33.71: 19.91%: $ 38.83: - 5.12: $ 29.00 :
02/29: $15.49 > 1,467 : 141.1 : $164.29 : $137.02 : $27.27: 119.90% : $34.74: 21.15%: $ 40.29: - 5.55: $ 29.25 :
03/30: $15.58 > 1,478 : 142.1 : $162.12 : $140.81 : $21.31: 115.13% : $31.17: 19.23%: $ 36.67: - 5.50: $ 28.10 :
04/30: $15.69 > 1,491 : 143.4 : $161.88 : $139.87 : $21.01: 115.74% : $30.92: 19.10%: $ 37.93: - 7.01: $ 27.29 :
05/31: $15.77 > 1,501 : 144.3 : $151.62 : $131.47 : $20.15: 115.33% : $24.91: 16.43%: $ 33.49: - 8.58: $ 26.08 :
06/30: $15.86 > 1,511 : 145.3 : $151.05 : $132.79 : $18.26: 113.75% : $24.28: 16.07%: $ 32.49: - 8.21: $ 27.76 :
07/31: $15.93 > 1,520 : 146.2 : $156.46 : $137.71 : $18.75: 113.62% : $25.05: 16.01%: $ 34.21: - 9.16: $ 30.13 :
08/31: $16.01 > 1,529 : 147.0 : $164.22 : $141.16 : $23.06: 116.34% : $25.74: 15.67%: $ 33.07: - 7.33: $ 30.42 :
09/28: $16.07 > 1,536 : 147.7 : $171.89 : $143.97 : $27.92: 119.39% : $28.47: 16.56%: $ 34.60: - 6.13: $ 29.41 :
10/31: $16.26 > 1,559 : 149.9 : $166.83 : $141.35 : $25.48: 118.03% : $28.60: 17.14%: $ 36.79: - 8.19: $ 28.93 :
11/30: $16.37 > 1,571 : 151.0 : $166.05 : $142.16 : $23.89: 116.81% : $28.88: 17.39%: $ 37.15: - 8.27: $ 28.85 :
12/31: $16.43 > 1,570 : 151.0 : $162.02 : $142.41 : $19.61: 113.77% : $30.34: 18.73%: $ 40.45:-10.11: $ 27.95 : $ 13.48 :

(2013)

01/31: $16.43 > 1,570 : 151.0 : $161.20 : $149.70 : $11.50: 107.68%: $30.48: 18.85%: $ 41.47:-10.99: $ 27.91 : $ 20.58 :
02/28: $16.69 > 1,610 : 154.8 : $153.00 : $151.61 : $01.39: 100.92%: $27.62: 18.05%: $ 38.95:-11.33: $ 26.40 : $ 32.69 :
03/28: $16.77 > 1,620 : 155.7 : $154.47 : $156.67 : $-2.20 : 98.60% :: $25.82: 16.71%: $ 36.93:-11.11: $ 25.90 : $ 92.70 :
04/30: $16.83 > 1,627 : 156.4 : $142.77 : $159.68 : -16.91 : 89.41% :: $23.90: 16.74%: $ 37.74:-13.84: $ 26.22 : $139.87 :
05/31: $16.74 > 1,616 : 155.4 : $133.92 : $163.45 : -29.53 : 81.93% :: $23.23: 17.32%: $ 36.01:-12.78: $ 25.49 : $128.15 :
06/28: $16.74 > 1,616 : 155.4 : $119.11 : $160.42 : -41.31 : 74.25% :: $20.16: 16.93%: $ 32.52:-12.36: $ 24.90 : $ 96.84 :
07/31: $16.74 > 1,616 : 155.4 : $127.96 : $168.71 : -40.75 : 75.85% :: $20.39: 15.93%: $ 34.26:-13.87: $ 24.63 : $108.03 :
08/30: $16.74 > 1,616 : 155.4 : $134.62 : $163.65 : -29.03 : 82.26% :: $21.51: 15.98%: $ 35.13:-13.62: $ 25.08 : $143.04 :
09/30: $16.74 > 1,616 : 155.4 : $128.97 : $168.01 : -38.04 : 76.76% :: $22.06: 17.10%: $ 37.08:-15.02: $ 25.29 : $127.09 :
10/31: $17.16 > 1,666 : 160.2 : $127.74 : $175.79 : -48.05 : 72.67% :: $22.49: 17.61%: $ 37.57:-15.08: $ 25.05 : $206.34 :
11/29: $17.22 > 1,673 : 160.9 : $120.70 : $181.00 : -60.30 : 66.69% :: $21.31: 17.66%: $ 40.13:-18.82: $ 24.84 : $ 1,137. :
12/31: $17.35 > 1,689 : 162.4 : $116.12 : $184.69 : -68.57 : 62.87% :: $22.27: 19.18%: $ 38.37:-16.10: $ 24.25 : $815.00 :

(2014)

01/31: $17.29 > 1,682 : 161.7 : $120.09 : $178.18 : -58.09 : 67.40% :: $21.15: 17.61%: $ 34.58:-13.43: $ 24.65 : $935.00 :
02/28: $17.46 > 1,702 : 163.7 : $127.62 : $186.29 : -58.67 : 68.51% :: $21.84: 17.11%: $ 35.39:-13.55: $ 27.37 : $540.00 :
03/31: $17.60 > 1,718 : 165.2 : $123.61 : $187.01 : -63.40 : 66.10% :: $21.88: 17.70%: $ 35.78:-13.80: $ 28.33 : $456.00 :
04/30: $17.51 > 1,708 : 164.2 : $124.22 : $188.31 : -64.09 : 65.97% :: $22.68: 18.25%: $ 34.93:-12.25: $ 29.27 : $450.00 :
05/31: $17.52 > 1,709 : 164.3 : $120.43 : $192.68 : -72.25 : 62.50% :: $23.20: 19.26%: $ 36.85:-13.65: $ 27.71 : $615.41 :
06/30: $17.63 > 1,721 : 165.5 : $128.04 : $195.72 : -67.68 : 65.42% :: $24.01: 18.75%: $ 37.04:-13.03: $ 27.46 : $650.47 :
07/31: $17.69 > 1,729 : 166.3 : $123.39 : $193.09 : -69.70 : 63.90% :: $25.27: 20.48%: $ 40.47:-15.20: $ 26.81 : $588.00 :
08/31: $17.77 > 1,739 : 167.2 : $123.86 : $200.71 : -76.85 : 61.71% :: $23.74: 19.17%: $ 40.47:-16.73: $ 26.46 : $505.65 :
12/31: $18.2E > 1,790 : 172.1 :
Date-: DebtTr > G.Eqv /10.40 : - GLD - : - SPY - : -DIFF- : - ratio - : -- CU -- : cu/gld : - FXI - : cu-fxi : - DBA- : - BTC - :
======
"GOLD Formula" is : (Fed'l Debt - $4.0 Trillion ) x 119 +$100 : US Govt Debt :: http://www.usgovernmentdebt.us/

The FED must be pleased with the way that money has flowed into stocks, away from Gold. / notes : a b cox cvn

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DAILY RECORD - (end of previous months)
Month-: -SPY- : Chg : -GDX- : -GLD- : : Chg : x10.36 : : WTI.Cr: --DXY-- -Chg- : --TLT--: -Chg- : Posts= /views: cum'l
Dec 31: 184.69 +0.87 : 21.13: 116.12 +0.73 :
Jan. 31: 178.18 -1.05 : 23.48: 120.09 +0.42 :
Feb 28: 186.29 +0.47 : 25.88: 127.62 - 0.58 :

Mar 31: 187.01 +1.52 : 23.61: 123.61 - 0.95 : 1,284.5 : 101.56* 80.105 - 0.078 : 109.10 - 0.27 : 03 : 200 / 080 : 2,852
Apr 30 : 188.31 +0.56 : 24.11: 124.22 - 0.64 : 1,290.0 : 100.00* 79.510 - 0.304 : 111.10 +0.46 : 0X : 191 / 0XX : 2,678
May 30: 192.68 +0.31 : 22.50: 120.43 - 0.51 : 1,250.5 : 102.88* 80.391 - 0.101 : 114.10 - 0.05 : 00 : 199 / 082 : 2,592
Jun. 30: 195.72 - 0.10 : 26.45: 128.04 +0.46 : 1,327.8 : 105.52* 79.791 - 0.226 : 113.52 +0.28 : 05 : 188 / 098 : 2,930
July 31 : 193.09 -3.89 : 25.91: 123.39 - 1.44 : 1,283.1 : $97.65* 81.482 +0.058 : 113.98 - 0.34 : 09 : 168 / 124 : 2,524
Aug.31 : 200.71 -sun- : 26.69: 123.86 - sun- : 1,288.0 : $95.84* 82.736 +0.000 : 119.05 +0.00 : 02 : 251 / 090 : 3,429

AUG., last week...
==

23: 199.19 - sat - : 00.0M : 26.10 +0.00 : 123.19 - sat - : 0.00M: 1,281.8 $93.37* 82.331 +0.000 : 117.29 +0.00 : 04 : 201 / 084 : 2,501 /

24: 199.19 - sun- : 00.0M : 26.10 +0.00 : 123.19 - sun- : 0.00M: 1,281.8 $93.37* 82.331 +0.000 : 117.29 +0.00 : 07 : 208 / 099 : 2,600 /

25: 200.20 +1.01 : 60.8M : 25.62 - 0.48 : 122.74 - 0.45 : 4.88M: 1,277.0 $93.34* 82.609 +0.278 : 117.73 +0.44 : 04 : 212 / 100 : 2,700 /

26: 200.33 +0.13 : 41.5M : 26.19 +0.57 : 123.35 +0.61 : 3.86M: 1,281.6 $93.18* 82.680 +0.071 : 117.35 - 0.38 : 12 : 226 / 206 : 2,906 /

27: 200.25 - 0.08 : 42.1M : 26.11 - 0.08 : 123.32 - 0.03 : 2.56M: 1,283.7 $93.67* 82.471 -0.209 : 118.35 +1.00 : 04 : 230 / 100 : 3,006 /

28: 200.14 - 0.11 : 50.4M : 26.46 +0.35 : 124.00 +0.68 : 3.21M: 1,290.0 $94.58* 82.491 +0.020 : 118.97 +0.62 : 08 : 238 / 136 : 3,142 /

29: 200.71 +0.57 : 54.8M : 26.69 +0.23 : 123.86 - 0.14 : 3.67M: 1,300.0 $95.84* 82.736 +0.245 : 119.05 +0.08 : 06 : 244 / 107 : 3,249 /

#-- and #6, Sep.

30: 200.71 - sat - : 00.0M : 26.69 +0.00 : 123.86 - sat - : 0.00M: 1,288.0 $95.84* 82.736 +0.000 : 119.05 +0.00 : 05 : 249 / 090 : 3,339 /
31: 200.71 - sun- : 00.0M : 26.69 +0.00 : 123.86 - sun- : 0.00M: 1,288.0 $95.84* 82.736 +0.000 : 119.05 +0.00 : 02 : 251 / 090 : 3,429 /
SEPTEMBER RECORD
Sep: -SPY-: Chg : volume/ -GDX : Chg. : -GLD- : Chg : volume: x10.3? : WTI.Cr: -DXY-- -Chg- : --TLT--: -Chg- : Posts= / Views: cum'l
01: 200.71 - hol.- : 00.0M: 26.69 +0.00 : 123.86 - hol.- : 0.00M: 1,288.0 $95.84* 82.736 +0.000 : 119.05 +0.00 : 09 : 009 / 088 : 0,088 /
02: 200.61 - 0.10 : 64.8M: 25.81 - 0.88 : 121.65 - 2.21 : 10.1M: 1,266.5 $93.25* 82.971 +0.235 : 116.73 - 2.05 : 17 : 026 / 169 : 0,257 /
03: 200.50 - 0.11 : 53.7M: 27.78 - 0.03 : 122.15 +0.50 : 3.39M: 1,270.0 $95.08* 82.887 - 0.084 : 117.38 +0.65 : 07 : 033 / 132 : 0,389 /
04: 200.21 - 0.29 : 77.4M: 24.88 - 0.90 : 121.48 - 0.67 : 7.23M: 1,261.7 $94.58* 83.913 +1.026 : 115.95 - 1.43 : 09 : 042 / 200 : 0,589 /
05: 201.11 +0.90 : 90.2M: 25.07 +0.19 : 122.06 +0.58 : 3.36M: 1,269.3 $93.43* 83.764 - 0.082 : 115.73 - 0.22 : 05 : 047 / 124 : 0,713 /
#49
06: 201.11 - sat - : 00.0M: 25.07 +0.00 : 122.06 - sat - : 0.00M: 1,269.3 $93.43* 83.764 - 0.000 : 115.73 - 0.00 : 01 : 048 / 070 : 0,783 /
07: 201.11 - sun- : 00.0M: 25.07 +0.00 : 122.06 - sun- : 0.00M: 1,269.3 $93.43* 83.764 - 0.000 : 115.73 - 0.00 : 06 : 054 / 060 : 0,843 /
08: 200.59 - 0.52 : 64.1M: 24.19 - 1.88 : 120.73 - 1.33 : 7.51M: 1,256.3 $93.12* 84.290 +0.526 : 115.78 +0.05 : 07 : 061 / 110 : 0,953 /

09: 199.32 - 1.27 : 82.4M: 24.56 +0.37 : 120.87 +0.14 : 6.09M: 1,256.6 $92.75* 84.100 - 0.190 : 115.69 - 0.09 : 06 : 067 / 115 : 1,068 /

10: 200.07 +0.75 : 64.2M: 24.10 - 0.46 : 120.26 - 0.61 : 6.98M: 1,249.9 $91.71* 84.186 +0.086 : 114.96 - 0.73 : 04 : 073 / 108 : 1,176 /

11: 200.30 +0.23 : 62.4M: 24.27 +0.17 : 119.47 - 0.79 : 7.39M: 1,241.1 $93.08* 84.321 +0.135 : 114.58 - 0.38 : 04 : 077 / 117 : 1,293 /

12: 199.13 - 1.17 : 105.M: 23.88 - 0.39 : 118.38 - 1.09 : 7.74M: 1,231.5 $92.15* 84.173 - 0.148 : 113.38 - 1.20 : 08 : 085 / 200 : 1,493 /

#90

13: 199.13 - sat - : 000.M: 23.88 - 0.00 : 118.38 - sat - : 0.00M: 1,231.5 $92.15* 84.173 - 0.000 : 113.38 - 0.00 : 08 : 093 / 090 : 1,583 /
14: 199.13 - sun- : 000.M: 23.88 - 0.00 : 118.38 - sun- : 0.00M: 1,231.5 $92.15* 84.173 - 0.000 : 113.38 - 0.00 : 04 : 097 / 077 : 1,660 /

15: 198.98 - 0.15 : 70.2M: 23.91 +0.03 : 118.64 +0.26 : 4.65M: 1,233.8 $92.79* 84.207 +0.027 : 113.55 +0.17 : 08 : 105 / 120 : 1,782 /

16: 200.48 +1.50 : 108.M: 24.00 +0.09 : 118.83 +0.19 : 6.52M: 1,235.6 $94.71* 84.109 - 0.098 : 113.09 - 0.46 : 06 : 111 / 138 : 1,920 /

17: 200.75 +0.27 : 132.M: 23.43 - 0.57 : 117.54 - 1.29 : 8.18M: 1,224.1 $93.98* 84.641 +0.532 : 112.80 - 0.29 : 04 : 115 / 115 : 1,935 /

18: 201.82 +1.07 : 84.8M: 23.13 - 0.30 : 117.78 +0.24 : 5.27M: 1,225.9 $93.02* 84.352 - 0.289 : 113.16 +0.36 : 07 : 122 / 233 : 2,168 /
19: 200.70 - 0.18 : 107.M: 22.66 - 0.47 : 117.09 - 0.69 : 10.8M: 1,216.9 $91.77* 84.796 +0.444 : 114.60 +1.44 : 11 : 133 / 113 : 2,281 /
#134
20: 200.70 - sat - : 000.M: 22.66 - 0.00 : 117.09 - sat - : 00.0M: 1,216.9 $91.77* 84.796 +0.000 : 114.60 +0.00 : 06 : 139 / 113 : 2,376 /
21: 200.70 - sun- : 000.M: 22.66 - 0.00 : 117.09 - sun- : 00.0M: 1,216.9 $91.77* 84.796 +0.000 : 114.60 +0.00 : 00 : 139 / 052 : 2,428 /
22: 199.15 - 1.55 : 102.M: 22.18 - 0.48 : 116.85 - 0.24 : 7.60M: 1,215.5 $90.67* 84.649 - 0.147 : 114.74 +0.14 : 06 : 145 / 130 : 2,559 /
23: 197.01 - 2.14 : 111.M: 22.54 +0.36 : 117.60 - 1.25 : 4.67M: 1,223.5 $91.72* 84.790 +0.141 : 115.45 +0.71 : 03 : 148 / 100 : 2,659 /
24: 199.56 +1.55 : 98.1M: 22.21 - 0.33 : 117.05 - 0.55 : 5.56M: 1,217.3 $92.87* 85.150 +0.360 : 114.81 - 0.64 : 03 : 151 / 083 : 2,741 /
25: 196.34 - 3.22 : 137.M: 22.35 +0.14 : 117.39 +0.34 : 7.62M: 1,222.5 $92.44* 85.257 +0.107 : 116.17 +1.36 : 07 : 158 / 120 : 2,861 /
26: 197.90 +1.56 : 94.4M: 21.98 - 0.37 : 117.06 - 0.33 : 4.11M: 1,220.0 $93.36* 85.623 +0.366 : 116.00 - 0.17 : 06 : 164 / 122 : 2,983 /
# ?
27: 197.90 - sat - : 00.0M: 21.98 - 0.00 : 117.06 - sat - : 0.00M: 1,220.0 $93.36* 85.623 +0.000 : 116.00 - 0.00 : 05 : 169 / 072 : 3,055 /
28: 197.90 - sun- : 00.0M: 21.98 - 0.00 : 117.06 - sun- : 0.00M: 1,220.0 $93.36* 85.623 +0.000 : 116.00 - 0.00 : 03 : 172 / 070 : 3,125 /
29: 197.54 - 0.36 : 88.7M: 21.75 - 0.23 : 117.03 - 0.03 : 3.86M: 1,215.7 $94.32* 85.605 - 0.018 : 116.93 +0.93 : 05 : 177 / 087 : 3,212 /
30:
Sep: -SPY-: Chg : volume/ -GDX : Chg. : -GLD- : Chg : volume: x10.3? : WTI.Cr: -DXY-- -Chg- : --TLT--: -Chg- : Posts= / Views: cum'l

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Long Term Charts updated from time-to-time, mostly: June 30, 2014 )

 

IWM / Russell-2000 - to June 30th .... 10-yrs : 12mos // SPY ... 5-years : last-12mos

IWM-10yr_zps3e33768e.gif

 

== Charts as of June 30, 2014 == show the Key long term trends ==


EIGHT KEY CHARTS - Watch for the 76d-MA (blue) Crossing the 987d-MA (yellow)
=================

Updates: (early October / early August Comments)
=====
+ SPY remains in Long Term (UP) trend, pulling back from channel high

+ TLT : Confirmed (DOWN) 76d below 987d-MA, prices in falling channel

 

=== Comments Below HERE Need Updating ===
+ UUP failed to breakout to upside, stays SIDE-ways
+ USO looks set for breakout to UP-side, still SIDEways now
+ XLE remains in UP-trend (with SPY)
+ OIH, after a long struggle, has broken* to UP-side
+ GLD now in confirmed DOWN-trend
+ GDX has stayed in confirmed DOWN-trend
===
*Be alert for possible false break

SPY / S&P500 etf - (UP) ... Cal'13 : 3 years : 4 years : 5yrs : 10yrs :

SPY_zps5bf1dfab.gif

.
TLT / T-Bonds etf - (SIDE) ... Cal'13 : 3 years : 4 years : 5yrs : 10yrs :

TLT_zps0251719a.gif

.
UUP / USDollar x2 etf - (SIDE) ... Cal'13 : 3 years : 4 years : 5yrs : 10yrs :

UUP_zpsf94862b2.gif

.
USO / Oil etf - (SIDE) ... Cal'13 : 3 years : 4 years : 5yrs : 10yrs :

USO_zps48f80316.gif

.
XLE / Oil stocks - (UP) ... Cal'13 : 3 years : 4 years : 5yrs : 10yrs :

XLE_zpsbecc38d8.gif

.
OIH / Oil service - (UP) ... Cal'13 : 3 years : 4 years : 5yrs : 10yrs :

OIH_zpsac0fa96d.gif

.
GLD / Gold etf - (SIDEways/Down) ... Cal'13 : 3 years : 4 years : 5yrs : 10yrs :

GLD_zpsbd73cb57.gif

.
GDX / Gold stocks - (SIDEways/Down) ... Cal'13 : 3 years : 4 years : 5yrs : 10yrs :

GDX_zps8bf56884.gif

 

=== Links to other CHARTS ===

 

PHM +, GDXJ -, RGLD -, HK:HSI +, HK:12 -new,

..

=

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BRADLEY Turn Dates, as identified: December 13, 2013

 

2014 outlook - Bradley turn dates for 2014
Notice 2014 starts out at a low point (corresponds to my projections of cycles bottoming end of December or early January). Also corresponds with a new moon. Mid year is projected as the high point for the year (preliminary work shows this should align with my projections).

 

"Is the Bradley Model UPSIDE DOWN in 2014 ??"

(I asked that some weeks ago, but now some sort of stock high in July looks possible.)

 

IWM /Russell ........... Dec.2013 - End Dec.2014

IWM-2014_zpsf5008f7b.gif

 

TZA /3x Bear IWM ... Dec.2013 - End Dec.2014

TZA-2014_zps09de2bcf.gif

 

bradley2014B_zps44880258.png

 

Key dates are 1/1, 7/16 and 11/20 in 2014.
I'll post my 2014 projections before year end and other projections when/if I come across them.
- Posted by Inlet at 8:39 AM

==

> http://swingcycles.blogspot.hk/2013/12/2014-outlook-bradley-turn-dates-for-2014.html

 

It might also be more applicable to DXY / the US Dollar in 2014 ... update : DXY-all-data

DXY-2014_zpsc9562756.gif

 

But the impressive continuing strength in DXY since mid-July is invalidating that connection

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UPDATE - On Gold share's Great "Head Fake"

=

Gold's possible Head Fake / What's a "head fake"?

 

HeadFake_zpsa80e329a.jpg

 

A Head fake is a type of feint in which a player moves his or her head to fake a change in direction.[1]

In financial markets, a head fake is where the market appears to be moving in one direction but ends up moving in the opposite direction.[2] For example, the price of a stock may appear to move up, and all indications prior to that are that it will move up, but shortly after reverses direction and starts moving down.

==

> wiki: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Head_fake

GDXJ-Chart : GDX : NUGT : VGZ : GLD : UGL : UGLD

GDXJ_zps89d1c47f.gif

=

Here's the latest chart ... GDXJ - with a head fake nicely in place, and a subsequent rally...

 

GDXJ2_zpse02e7d93.gif

 

And the price update, above:

A pullback, and correction to the run-up which started from the July peak has been slow to finish,

using up the rest of the (seasonally weak) summer.

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/ Gold Shares up a bit... in Summer Trading /

=== Last WEEK's MOVES ==== : on Friday 08/29 alone = :
GLD : 123.19 : + 0.54 % / 123.86 : -0.14 : -0.11% / 3,67 M
GDX : $26.10 : + 2.26 % > $26.69 : +0.23 : +0.87% / 14.08 M
Ratio: R4.720 : - 1.67 % / R 4.641 (GLDx10.399 = $1,288.0)
Gdxj : $40.92 : + 2.88 % / $42.10 : +0.46 : +1.10% : 2.79 M
ASA : $14.25 : + 1.19 % / $14.42 : +0.05 : +0.35% : 36,394
Nugt : $43.03 : + 6.30 % / $45.74 : +1.04 : +2.33% : 2.52 M
SPRD 800.09 : - 0.63 % / 795.00 = 25.56 mn oz. Gold stored
TLT- : 117.29 : + 1.50 % / 119.05 : +0.08 : +0.07% : 8.32 mn
G/Tlt : 10.93 : : - 1.01 % / 10.82 -> Back at Low under 11.0
S/Tlt : 15.93% - 1.32 % / 15.72%-> New Bottom below 15.8%%
===
SLV : $18.69 : + 0.01 % / $18.71 : -0.03 : -0.16% : 3.87 mn
SIL- : $13.44 : + 2.38 % / $13.76 : +0.10 : +0.73% : 159,945
DBA : $25.93 : + 2.04 % / $26.46 : +0.06 : +0.23% : 277,038
VDC : 116.32 : + 0.70 % / 117.14 : +0.18 : +0.15% : 52,007
Cop'r $3.204 : - 2.15 % / $3.135 : +0.007 : +0.22% : 1,316
WTI-: $93.37 : + 2.65 % / $95.84 : +1.26 : +1.33% : 215,807
CRB : 288.67 : + 1.41 % / 292.75 : +1.41 : +0.48% : View-Chart
CCI- : 508.70 : + 1.60 % / 516.84: +2.19 : +0.43% : Vol. = 0
Wheat 560.3 : + 0.48 % / 563.00 : -8.00 : -1.40% : 50,632
Corn: 372.25 : - 1.68 % / 366.00 : -3.25 : -0.88% : 102,111
Sugar: .1560 : - 0.51 % / $.1550 : -0.001 : -0.51% : 30,804
BTC : $508.4 : - 0.54 % / $505.65 : +0.53% :
B/Gld 39.69% - 1.08 % / 39.26 % : == A quiet week
===
FXI - : $40.89 : - 1.03 % / $40.47 : -0.05 : -0.12% : 13.59 mn
PHM : $19.09 : + 0.68 % / $19.22 : +0.13 : +0.68% : 2.70 mn
IYR- : $73.81 : + 0.53 % / $74.20 : +0.37 : +0.50% : 5.35 mn
XLF- : $23.12 : + 1.04 % / $23.36 : +0.11 : +0.47% : 18.70 mn
SPY- : 199.19 : + 0.76 % / 200.71 : +0.57 : +0.28% : 54.80 mn
Xlf/Spy 11.61% + 0.28 % / 11.64 % -> Flat +/-0.5%
IWM- : 115.21 : + 1.17 % / 116.56 : +0.65 : +0.56% : 24.82 mn
DXY- : 82.331 : + 0.49 % / 82.736 : +0.245 : +0.30% : N / A
Hgold : 15.57 : + 0.00 % / 15.57 (dxy82.736) Resistance-17.10
=====
Big Movers: Near 5% or more
==========
Nugt : $43.03 : + 6.30 %

SLV -to-GDX Ratio - Ready to Soar ?

SLV. : $18.71

GDX : $26.69

Ratio : 70.1% - and E-wave a-b-c correction to 69% may be finished

 

SLV-toGDX_zpsf75236b3.png

 

 

SLV (Silver) - NY trading Gap now filled ... SLV-10 day : AGQ-vs-GDX / SLV-last: $18.70

SLV-10d_zps4adbe16d.gif

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STILL WAITING for a Good Gold signal

... on this GLD / Gold chart.

Maybe it will come now that we are into September

 

History - From Aug.19th

GLD-2yrs_zpsf4543c6b.gif

 

GLD - Two Years ... updated

GLD-76d_zpse3c2fb02.gif

(I cannot rule out another "head fake" - The 20-year seasonal pattern does suggest that possibility.)

 

Gold - Seasonal Pattern / source: EquityClock

GoldSeas-20yrs_zpsba711323.png

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Tony C: "The Largest Correction since 2011" may be coming soon

 

LONG TERM: bull market

 

As we start our 10th year of publishing this blog it appears the market is entering another inflection point. The bulls have won them all since 2010, with the exception of 2011. Is another exception in the offering, or is Primary III set to extend once again? The next several days to weeks will give us the answer.

 

spxweekly4.png?w=640&h=484

 

Last weekend we offered a potential alternate count should Primary III extend. Yet, we continue to follow our main count which has worked well for us this year. As you can see from the weekly chart: the SPX should be in Intermediate wave v, of Major 5, of Primary III. When this uptrend concludes, Primary III ends, and the largest correction since 2011 should follow for Primary IV

. . .

SHORT TERM

Short term support is at SPX 1985 and the 1973 pivot, with resistance at SPX 2005 and the 2019 pivot. Short term momentum ended the week overbought. The short term OEW charts turned positive with the reversal level now SPX 1998.

spxhourly4.png?w=640&h=484

 

We have been counting this uptrend with five Minor waves. Minor waves 1 and 2 ended at SPX 1945 and 1928. Minor wave 3 divided into five Minute waves: 1964-1942-1995-1985-2005. Minor wave 4 appears to have ended on thursday at SPX 1991 with a positive short term divergence. During this bull market fifth waves have been somewhat limited: from less than the length of wave 1 to 1.618 times wave 1.

With wave 1 travelling 40 points (1905-1945) the upside limit for wave 5 would be about the OEW 2070 pivot. The minimum upside would be marginal new highs above SPX 2005.

==

> more: http://caldaro.wordpress.com/2014/08/30/weekend-update-463/

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HEDGE FUNDS cut Gold Bets - says SCMP article

 

+ Bullion is back to being out of favor

+ Hedge Fund holdings have gone to a two months low

+ Net Long position in Gold declined 21 percent to 92,734 contracts (9.27 mn oz.)

+ Gold prices fell 2.6 percent since June

 

"In an environment of sustainable growth (cough! cough!), gold is not very attractive,

and higher interest rates cannot be very good for gold in the long run."

 

A "lack of conviction" is keeping investors on the sidelines

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Whoops - big slamdown in Gold and Silver today

 

Gold: - $16 : - 1.24% - - - - - : Silver: -$0.34

 

t24_au_en_usoz_6.gif : t24_ag_en_usoz_2.gif : idx24_usd_en_2.gif

 

This is not fitting the seasonal pattern.

Is it being "engineered" perhaps??

 

Gold_zps9b4fed04.png

 

If so, it should bounceback fast (?)

 

ECB, Jobs Data, Geopolitical Headlines May Jostle Gold Next Week - Kitco News, Aug 29 2014 2:25PM

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Dollar Gains With Europe Stocks as Bonds, Gold Retreat

 

By Nick Gentle and Claudia Carpenter Sep 2, 2014 1:56 AM PT

iLVV7jZ8yrEo.jpg

Photographer: Krisztian Bocsi/Bloomberg

An employee assembles lithium-ion battery modules at the BMW automobile manufacturing... Read More

Related

The dollar strengthened, reaching a seven-month high against the yen, and government bonds declined before data that analysts forecast will show expansion in U.S. manufacturing. European stocks rose and gold declined.

 

The dollar climbed 0.5 percent to 104.90 yen at 10:53 a.m. in London and added 0.5 percent to $1.653 per British pound. Yields on 10-year Treasury notes increased four basis points to 2.38 percent. The Stoxx Europe 600 Index advanced 0.3 percent for a third day of gains. Futures on the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index added 0.2 percent after the index rallied the most since February last month. Gold dropped 0.7 percent.

 

U.S. investors return after the Labor Day break with manufacturing and construction spending reports. Gauges of factory output in Europe and China signal slower growth, boosting speculation that policy makers will need to boost stimulus measures. European money markets are pricing in about a 50 percent probability that the European Central Bank will cut interest rates by 10 basis points this week, according to BNP Paribas SA.

“In the U.S. across the board we have had strong data,”said Niels Christensen, chief currency strategist at Nordea Bank AB in Copenhagen. “That will keep growth momentum going. We have had a positive dollar trend for the past two months. I find it difficult to see this trend is going to disappear in the short term.”

U.S. Reports

The Institute for Supply Management’s August factory gauge probably held last month near the highest since April 2011, according to the median of 70 estimates in a Bloomberg survey. Another report probably will show U.S. construction rebounded in July, a Bloomberg survey showed. Reports yesterday signaled manufacturing slowed in China, the U.K. and the euro area.

=== ===

 

> more: http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-09-01/asian-futures-mixed-with-euro-holding-losses-as-oil-drops.html

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Mixed signals??

US manufacturing likely expanded at slightly faster pace in August ...
Fox Business-40 minutes ago
WASHINGTON – The Institute for Supply Management reports on U.S. manufacturing, orders and other activity in August. The ISM, a trade ...
==
(2)
'US manufacturing has been lost. Now it's happening to TV'
Telegraph.co.uk-21 hours ago

Hollywood’s big-budget blockbuster movies have often been filmed overseas, particularly in England because of the tax incentives offered. Now television is following suit and more US series than ever before are filming outside North America. Why?

US TV networks are increasingly drawn by accommodating tax breaks, the easy availability of professional crews and the novelty of fresh scenery and different landscapes. This combination has greatly increased the attraction of shooting their shows overseas.

Smaller nations such as Sri Lanka have begun offering tax incentives, and others such as New Zealand have improved their own production infrastructures to make them state-of-the-art. Iceland recently lured the HBO series Game of Thrones as well as the feature films Noah and Prometheus.

.

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Jay Taylor on Gold - this argument may look familiar

 

Let me pass along some of Dan’s insights to help answer my listener’s concerns. This is taken from Dan’s Myrmikan Thesis dated August 2014: “The dollar price of gold is determined by government debt levels and interest rates. Most financial analysts argue that higher interest rates are gold negative: gold has no yield, so higher rates should entice holders to sell gold and buy bonds.”

 

But in fact the opposite is true, according to Dan. He explains it this way: “The dollar is a unit of liability of the Federal Reserve. A liability of a balance sheet cannot long remain more valuable than the assets backing it. As rates rise, the bonds on the Fed’s balance sheet lose value rapidly, causing the dollar to devalue. The longer term a bond, the more sensitive it is to interest rates. Because the Fed has massively lengthened the maturity profile of its bonds (as you can see from the chart on your right), rising rates will have greater effect than in the 1970s.”

 

jay_20140829_3.png

 

In fact what seems to be more of a predictor of gold prices than nominal interest rates is federal debt outstanding. In his August missive, Dan stated the following: “A regression analysis of gold against gross federal debt outstanding and nominal 10-year Treasury yields generates a stunningly accurate model (until the suspicious plunge in April of 2013). The CBO’s assumptions are highly optimistic. In fact, when rates rise, economic activity and tax revenue will fall, while interest payments and government handouts rise, exacerbating debt levels: gold will spike as in 1980.” (Dan cautioned his readers that this model cannot be used to prove the regression model statistically. Instead, its purpose here is to show the close correlation between theories espoused by Austrian economics and the data.)

 

I’d like to make sure you see on the chart the disconnect of the gold price with CBO Budget assumptions, which, as Dan notes, are highly optimistic. Dan called this disconnect suspicious and I believe that is what Rick Rule was talking about on my August 19 radio show when he said that the massive volume at certain times of the day when the markets are thin indicates that the major players are not seeking to optimize their own returns, but to affect the behavior of other market participants.

===

> more: http://www.kitco.com/ind/Taylor/2014-08-29-Long-Dated-U-S-Treasuries-Government-Debt-and-Gold.html

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Gold has pushed through Jim Wycoff's STOPS from Friday

 

Where are the Stops? Friday, August 29: Gold and Silver

 

Jim_Wyckoff.jpg

Below are today's likely price locations of buy and sell stop orders for the active Comex gold and silver futures markets. The asterisks (**) denote the most critical stop order placement level of the day (or likely where the heaviest concentration of stop orders are placed on this day).

See below a detailed explanation of stop orders and why knowing, beforehand, where they are likely located can be beneficial to a trader.

 

December Gold Buy Stops : $1,292.10 $1,297.60 **$1,300.00 $1,310.00

December Gold Sell Stops : $1,283.00 **$1,273.40 $1,270.00 $1,265.00

== ==

Gold Pressured To 10-Week Low By Stronger U.S. Dollar, No Major Weekend Geopolitical Developments - Kitco News, Sep 2 2014 8:34AM

Gold prices are solidly lower and hit a 10-week low in early U.S. trading Tuesday, amid a stronger U.S. dollar index that hit a 13-month high overnight, and on no major geopolitical flare-ups during the long U.S. holiday weekend. Technical selling pressure was also featured as pre-placed sell stop orders were triggered when prices breached chart support levels. December Comex gold was last down $19.50 at $1,267.80 an ounce. Spot gold was last quoted down $19.00 at $1,268.75. December Comex silver last traded down $0.307 at $19.18 an ounce. It’s a big week for economic data points, with the highlights being Thursday’s European Central Bank meeting and Friday’s U.S. jobs report. The market place reckons the ECB is on the verge of announcing fresh monetary stimulus.

 

 

A sort of Head Fake ??

This may be cleaning out quite a few of the remaining Hedgey longs.

It does remind me of the head fake move we saw in late May.

But so far, we have only seen the downwards shock part of that

 

As with that prior move, we should AWAIT AND WATCH THE BELLWETHERS (GDXJ, RGLD, FNV.t, etc),

to see if this downwards thrust is being accepted, or rejected - and is mainly cleaning out the Longs.

 

By mid-day NY Trading, we should have a clearer idea

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For what its worth . . . we are fast approaching an inflection point on this Silver wave count posted on 19. August

 

 

main count looks as follows:

 

silver18aug14daily.png

 

and the alternate count:

 

silver18aug14dailyalt.png

 

 

This mornings drop looks very much like the anticipated 'v = ( c ) ( ii )' leg on the alternate (completed or very near completion). If so, we should see some decent price action to the upside very soon. Note however, I think her preferred count remains the more bearish scenario.

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Thanks.

I think it is plausible.

SLV holding up better than GLD and GDX today

 

DBA (an inflation indicator) is UP on the day

CU / Copper too:

 

copper-d.gif

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Afternoon Dr,

 

I'd be interested to know what you make of this chart - a tiny little oil producer called KFG.

 

I think the lack of volume is interesting - but I'm not sure what to make of it.

 

KFG Resources Ltd ... update : 10-days

KFG_zpsc9d00f2c.gif

 

Obviously, this is now a news driven equity.

If you like the news, the buy point is 9-10 cents.

Minimum rally should be back to the high at 15 cents - Watch the volume.

Sell there, if it is weak, maybe

 

What's the news here?

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DXY has topped 83.00 today / HOD is $xx ... update : last: $xx

 

DXY-all_zps5a36bde2.gif

 

A reversal this week, from around these levels could mark some sort of peak.

Here's the Seasonal pattern

 

USDX.GIF

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Top of Page Charts: Gold / USD / china gold // Russell / Copper / china silver

t24_au_en_usoz_6.gif : 24hr-euro-small.gif : AuTD0.png?id=11406031228

idx24_russell_en_2.gif : t24_ag_en_usoz_2.gif: AgTD0.png?id=11406021131 :

China: 4,200 RMB/kg / 6.150 = $ 683 / 35.274 = $19.36 (discount of about 20-25 cents?)

Goldstock : HK-2840 : GBS.L : GLD : GDX : NUGT : tza/faz

HK: 2899 : 1051 : hs / UK: POG / ABX : Sil : IAG : dba-etc. ... lot : YL : CVN : CC2 : BTC : SLV-lv

==============================================

 

gold.gif?0.11948357871733606

 

=================================

ARTICLES

  1. Alacer Gold: Too Cheap To Ignore

    12:39 p.m. Aug. 29, 2014

    - Seeking Alpha

  2. Will Owning Gold Miners Really Protect You in a Downturn?

    9:23 p.m. Aug. 28, 2014

    - InvestorPlace.com

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Franco Nevada is the sole bellwether with a nice move off the low (so far)

 

Chart : FNV.t :

Tuesday: Last : change : LoDay
FNV.t : $60.91 : -0.35 : -0.57% : $60.35
compare
GDX- : $25.92 : -0.77 : -2.88% : $25.88

 

SILVER NOTE:

: t24_ag_en_usoz_2.gif: AgTD0.png?id=11406021131 :

 

SGex/ China: 4,158 RMB/kg / 6.150 = $ 676 / 35.274 = $19.17
(discount was about 20-25 cents / at this level, SGex price is a small premium !)


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may be of interest: Relative Rotation Graph of ABX, AU, AUY, FNV, GG, GOLD, NEM, SLW, relative to GDX

 

 

weekly:

 

Screenshot2014-09-02at70103PM_zps1b71ac6

 

daily:

 

Screenshot2014-09-02at70041PM_zps613c0a7

 

 

^ not a timing tool per se, but provides a nice overview (and as such, the weekly time frame is probably more useful).

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Those charts look useful, but I will take a while to get my mind around how to use them.

 

Based on what you see on the Weekly chart, which one would you Buy?
ABX maybe?
But on the daily chart, it seems to be rolling over (??)

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Those charts look useful, but I will take a while to get my mind around how to use them.

 

Based on what you see on the Weekly chart, which one would you Buy?

ABX maybe?

But on the daily chart, it seems to be rolling over (??)

 

On a weekly time frame NEM, AUY and ABX would be on a 'potential buy list' , GOLD would be on a 'potential sell list' ... and ideally one would own FNV, SLW, GG. But again, I think it works better as an overview of a sector.

 

 

from: http://stockcharts.com/school/doku.php?id=chart_school:chart_analysis:rrg_charts

 

Interpretation

 

When you are ‘reading’ Relative Rotation Graphs you have to bear in mind that they are not a ‘trading system’ in itself so there are no predefined trading-rules or signals. Although they do not ‘look’ like a regular chart that is probably the best way to approach them. Look at RRGs as another type of chart, which means that different people looking at the same chart will still come up with different interpretations. Now having said that, there are some rules-of-thumb you may want to follow:

  1. The JdK RS-Ratio reading is more important the JdK RS-Momentum, if you would like to ‘rank’ a universe the RS-Ratio is the preferred metric.
  2. Although the rotational pattern is always present it is not always perfectly circular shaped nor will it always rotate through all four quadrants sequentially.
  3. In the case of a very strong relative trend, either up or down it is possible that a rotation takes place completely on the right hand side of the plot, in case of a strong trend, or completely on the left hand side of the plot, in case of a weak trend. When viewed on a regular relative strength chart such a move would show as a RS-line going through a series of higher highs and higher lows or vv.
  4. Generally crossing from the left- to the right hand side of the plot means that a new relative up-trend has started. However as the underlying trend-following model that powers RRGs includes a lag period that is needed to pick up that trend, there will already be upward relative movement before that crossover into the leading quadrant is actually taking place. Similar to comparing price to a moving average, before it will actually cross, price will first need to move towards the moving average. It is really a matter of how ‘aggressive’ an investor is in taking a position, generally waiting for the actual crossover from improving to leading will be fairly conservative, in that case the new trend will then already be underway. Acting upon a crossover from lagging into improving can be seen as pretty ‘aggressive’, especially when the security is still low on the JdK RS-Ratio scale, there is still a risk for the rotation to turn back down again and complete a rotation on the left hand side of the graph as described under 3.
  5. Roughly stated we can say. The leading quadrant is what you want to own The weakening quadrant should be on your watch-list as it might be deteriorating. What is in the lagging quadrant you should better not own and what is in the improving quadrant should be on your shopping list.
  6. Relative Rotation Graphs on their own are not enough to take decisions but they will be a great help to channel your attention to those areas of the market that deserve it or for example generate (pair) trading ideas.

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