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Kitco's Gold SURVEY : A Contrarian Indicator?

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Kitco's Gold SURVEY

 

A CONTRARIAN Indicator?

 

Kitco-bullish-bearish-survey_zps93a468fa

 

I note that these Guys were Bearish last week, and Gold rose a bit:

 

== Last WEEK's MOVES ==== : on Friday 06/06 alone = :
GLD : 120.43 : + 0.15 % / 120.61 : -0.05 : -0.04% / 4.77 M
GDX : $22.50 : + 0.62 % > $22.64 : -0.01 : -0.04% / 15.95 M
Ratio : 5.352 : - 0.46 % / R 5.327 (GLDx10.384 = $1,252.4)
Gdxj : $34.11 : + 2.35 % / $34.91 : +0.52 : +1.51% : 3.24 M

===========

 

Maybe I should start tracking the Kitco Poll

 

Survey Participants Stay Bearish Toward Gold Prices - Kitco News, Jun 6 2014 12:19PM

 

Results : -5 : 63.1% of Views = +7, -12, N3 = 22 /33 : $1252.4> ???

 

Participants in the weekly Kitco News Gold Survey are bearish on gold prices for next week, looking for a retest of recent lows.

Out of 33 participants, 22 responded this week. Of those, 12 see prices lower, seven see prices higher and three see prices trading sideways or are neutral. Market participants include bullion dealers, investment banks, futures traders and technical-chart analysts.

Last week, survey participants were slightly bearish for this week. As of 11:30 a.m. EDT, Comex Augustgold was up about $5 for the week.

Those who see weaker prices said the downtrend in gold continues despite a rally Thursday, following the European Central Bank meeting.

“I think we’re going to go back down. We had a little bit of a retracement here, a bounce off support. But I don’t see it holding. I think we go back to test support. The downtrend continues,” said Daniel Pavilonis, senior commodities broker with RJO Futures.

Participants who look for higher prices said gold values in the short-term became oversold and the market is due for a bounce.

President Barack “Obama’s rhetoric against Russia is heating up again, even as the violence in Ukraine is getting worse. That’s obviously positive for gold. And the ECB’s tepid stimulative measures are also positive since they demonstrate the lack of resolve on the part of the ECB; so far, it’s been all talk and very little action. These two developments against a gold price that had become short-term oversold, suggests a positive week or two,” said Adrian Day, chairman and chief executive officer of Adrian Day Asset Management.

Those who see prices holding sideways said with the two major news events out of the way, the ECB meeting and the May nonfarm payrolls report, there’s little to stir the market.

Gold is suffering from a lack of interest as most speculators look elsewhere for trading opportunities,” said Frank Lesh, broker and futures analyst with FuturePath Trading. “Physical demand isn’t that strong right now either. Traders were set up short gold and the euro for the ECB meeting and when the announcement of policy came out they all covered, so now gold just hangs around in a range. This market is oversold and could rebound at any time, or maybe it just continues sideways to relieve the overbought status

==

> http://www.kitco.com/news/2014-06-06/Survey-Participants-Stay-Bearish-Toward-Gold-Prices.html

Historical Survey DATA: Seem heavily influenced by week just gone

==== : Net : %Bulls*= Up: Dn: N = Surveyed: FriGold > NextWk: Chg.

04/04 : +12 : 65.5% = +17, -05, N 4 = 26 /33 : $1297.4 > 1318.0 : +1.59%
04/11 : +10 : 63.6% = +14, -04, N 4 = 22 /33 : $1318.0 > 1299.3 : - 1.42%
04/18 : - 05 : 33.3% = +07, -12, N 2 = 21 /33 : $1299.3 > 1301.3 : +0.15%
04/25 : +06 : 58.3% = +14, -08, N 2 = 24 /35 : $1301.3 > 1300.6 : - 0.05%
05/02 : - 07 : 21.0% = +04, -11, N 4 = 19 /33 : $1300.6 > 1289.4 : - 0.86%
05/09 : - 05 : 25.0% = +06, -11, N 7 = 24 /33 : $1289.4 > 1292.5 : +0.24%
05/16 : - 02 : 24.0% = +06, -08, N11= 25 /33 : $1292.5 > 1293.0 : +0.04%
05/23 : +02 : 40.9% = +09, -07, N 6 = 22 /33 : $1293.0 > 1250.5 : - 3.29%
05/30 : - 11 : 25.9% = +07, -18, N 2 = 27 /33 : $1250.5 > 1252.4 : +1.52%
06/06 : - 05 : 31.8% = +07, -12, N 3 = 22 /33 : $1252.4 > 1276.6 : +1.93%
06/13 : +13 : 66.7% = +16, -03, N 5 = 24 /33 : $1276.6 > 1314.8 : +2.99%
06/20 : +12 : 69.2% = +18, -06, N 2 = 26 /37 : $1314.8 > 1316.0 : +0.09%
06/27 : +04 : 52.0% = +13, -09, N 3 = 25 /37 : $1316.0 > 1320.5 : +0.34%
07/04 : - 01 : 38.9% = +07, -08, N 3 = 18 /37 : $1320.5 > 1340.0 : +1.48%
07/11 : +11 : 68.0% = +17, -06, N 2 = 25 /37 : $1340.0 > 1311.4 : - 2.13%
07/18 : +02 : 44.0% = +11, -09, N 5 = 25 /37 : $1,311.4 > 1308.3 : - 0.24%
07/25 : -10 : 18.2% = +04, -14, N 4 = 22 /37 : $1,308.3 > 1295.2 : - 1.00%
08/01 : -04 : 33.3% = +08, -12, N 4 = 24 /37 : $1,295.2 > 1310.6 : +1.16%
08/08 : +12 : 66.7% = +18, -06, N 3 = 27 /37 : $1,310.6 > 1305.5 : - 0.39%

08/15 : +00 : 40.0% = +08, -08, N 4 = 22 /37 : $1,305.5 > 1281.8 : - 1.81%
08/22 : -04 : 34.8% = +08, -12, N 3 = 23 /37 : $1,281.8 > 1288.0 : + 0.48%
08/29 : +03 : 40.9% = +09, -06, N 7 = 22 /37 : $1,288.0 > ? ?
==== : Net : %Bulls*= Up: Dn: N = Surveyed: FriGold > NextWk: Chg.

=====
*%Bulls here means: the Percentage of those who HAVE a View: +,-, or N

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Hmmm.. If gold does not hold $1200 and drops beneath it and remains beneath, that would be a new two year low. Not very bullish.... but thats not to say there is a black swan around the corner, so it is always worth keeping an eye on it.

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Survey Participants See Higher Gold Prices Next Week

Friday June 13, 2014 12:00 PM

(Kitco News) - Gold prices may drift higher next week, the majority of participants in the Kitco News Gold Survey said, based on rising geopolitical tensions in the Middle East.

Out of 33 participants, 24 responded this week. Of those, 16 see prices higher, three see prices lower and five see prices trading sideways or are neutral. Market participants include bullion dealers, investment banks, futures traders and technical-chart analysts.

Last week, survey participants were bearish for this week. As of 11:30 a.m. EDT, Comex August gold was up about $21 for the week.

Those participants who see higher prices said the news out of Iraq, that insurgents seized Mosul, a town near one of Iraq’s biggest oil pipelines, underpins gold prices for the time being. However, most participants who see higher prices, such as Adam Klopfenstein, market strategist with Archer Financial Services, said they’re not seeing sizable gains next week because values are bumping into technical chart resistance. That ceiling starts around $1,280 an ounce.

“I’m mildly bullish,” Klopfenstein said.

Those who see weaker prices next week said gold’s strength based on geopolitical factors can be fleeting, especially if events change and the insurgency loses momentum. Additionally, there is the Federal Open Market Committee meeting next week and that may reinforce ideas that the U.S. economy is slowly strengthening.

“I think the Iraq situation shook everybody up. Oil rallied sharply and we were able to push gold higher…. But I’m not convinced that we won’t see more downside. I think you can cautiously sell rallies if we get to $1,280.

Thirteen hundred is the big resistance. If we don’t find any more news then we’ll probably go back to $1,240....

==

> more: http://www.kitco.com/news/2014-06-13/Survey-Participants-See-Higher-Gold-Prices-Next-Week.html

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==== : Net : %Bulls*= Up: Dn: N = Surveyed: FriGold > NextWk: Chg.

06/06 : - 05 : 31.8% = +07, - 12, N 3 = 22 /33 : $1252.4 > 1276.6 : +1.93%

06/13 : +13 : 66.7% = +16, - 03, N 5 = 24 /33 : $1276.6 > 1314.8 : +2.99%

06/20 : +12 : 69.2% = +18, - 06, N 2 = 26 /37 : $1314.8 > ????


Survey Participants Heavily Bullish On Gold Prices For Next Week

Friday June 20, 2014 12:08 PM


Ole Hansen, head of commodity strategy at Saxo Bank:

“The triple combination of a slightly more dovish Fed, the crisis in Iraq and the technical break back above the 200-day moving average leaves the door open for higher prices next week. A strong silver close this Friday could signal a break above the downtrend from 2011 and that could spur this metal on to further gains,” he said.


Those participants who call for weaker prices next week said considering the rally came so swiftly, a pullback might be in order. Additionally, they noted little physical demand* on the move higher, which has been a problem plaguing gold for a few months now.


“I can see by the gold forward rates that the buying was coming from the hedge fund/spec (speculative) community and not the physical buyers. The physical buyers have actually turned slight sellers at these levels. The buying on Thursday seemed to me to be panic short covering.

==



* True enough: Gold holdings by SPDR actually FELL slightly during the week

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Higher Gold Prices Forecast For Next Week – Survey Participants






Friday June 27, 2014 12:08 PM


(Kitco News) - A majority of participants in the Kitco News weekly Gold Survey forecast higher gold prices next week as some technical-chart analysts and participants focused on geopolitical news see the yellow metal holding its gains.


Out of 37 participants, 25 responded this week. Of those, 13 see higher prices, nine see lower prices and three see prices trading sideways or are neutral. Market participants include bullion dealers, investment banks, futures traders and technical-chart analysts.



Last week, survey participants were bullish for this week. As of 11:30 a.m. EDT, Comex August gold was up about $3 for the week.


Participants who see higher prices said either technical-chart reasons support gold, or that gold would find support from ongoing concerns regarding a militant uprising in Iraq or heightened tensions between Russia and Ukraine.



“Unless $18.64 in silver or $1,241 in gold are broken, I remain on my buy signal for gold to (rise to) $1,450-$1,500 and silver to (rise to) $24-25 this year,” said Mark Leibovit, editor, VR Gold Letter.



Those who see weaker prices said the lack of any physical demand after last week’s rally is a bearish sign, plus they added the inability to break above technical-chart resistance above this week high’s of $1,326.60 an ounce, basis the August futures, suggests a pullback.



“The gold enthusiasts crowded back in last week but were unable to move prices higher. Quarter-end flows were also coming into gold that will reverse early in the month. Worries about Chinese invoicing are set to take the spotlight and that will weigh on prices,” said Adam Button, editor and analyst at Forexlive.com.


Those who see prices sideways or are neutral said they see no catalyst pushing gold out of its $1,300 to $1,330 range.


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Large Speculators Ramp Up Net Bullish Positioning In Gold, Silver – CFTC Data - Kitco News, Jun 30 2014 11:10AM

 

(Kitco News) - Large speculators significantly ramped up their bullish positioning in both gold and silver futures, as reflected by the most recent weekly positioning data from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission.

. . .

The CFTC issues two reports -- a “disaggregated” report started in 2007 and meant to offer more detail, and the older “legacy” reporting format still followed by many analysts.

In the disaggregated report, money managers hiked their net long in gold to 114,356 contracts for futures and options combined as of June 24, a jump of 72% from 66,572 the prior week. Barclays pointed out this was due to an almost equal amount of fresh buying and short covering. Total longs jumped by 22,912 lots, reflecting new buying. Meanwhile, total shorts fell by 24,871 lots, which represent short covering, which is buying to exit short positions in which traders had previously sold.

The net length is the most since March 25.

“The move has been buttressed by FOMC (Federal Open Market Committee) statements indicating that U.S. policy rates would remain near zero for a prolonged period, just as geopolitical tensions begun to escalate in Iraq,” said Citi Research.

TD Securities, in a research note, said gold speculative accounts shifted to a heavily net-long position in a delayed reaction to comments from Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen that disappointed those who thought she would lean more hawkish. This triggered short covering in gold, with buys stops activated and the market making a technical breakout higher.

 

The legacy report shows a similar story. The net long of the large non-commercial accounts – commonly referred to as the funds -- climbed to 146,239 for futures and options combined, the most since March 18 and a week-on-week gain of 54% from 94,654. A breakdown of the data shows that new longs rose by 29,511 lots, while total shorts fell by 22,074.

Edward Meir, commodities consultant with INTL FCStone, pointed out one potential drawback to the huge jump in net length, however. If gold can’t continue building on the roughly $40 jump from two weeks ago, fresh longs “may decide to head for the exits just as quickly as they came in,” meaning selling pressure would emerge in the form of long liquidation or profit-taking.

 

However, HSBC analysts also pointed out gross short positioning still remains at historically high levels, meaning potential for even more short covering.

 

Percentage-wise, the jump in net length in silver was even more dramatic. In the disaggregated report, money managers’ net-long position skyrocketed to 24,757 lots for futures and options combined, a week-on-week gain of 382% from 5,134. This tended to be tilted toward short covering, as the number of total shorts fell by 13,416 lots and the number of total longs rose by 6,207.

 

In the legacy report, the large non-commercials upped their net long by 148% to 30,803 lots from 12,403 the prior week. The largest share of the increase was the result of short covering as gross shorts declined by 11,804 lots, although there was also significant fresh buying as reflected by a 6,596-lot increase in gross longs.

Net length in silver for money managers stands at the highest level since Feb. 25. For the non-commercials, the net long slightly exceeded the February peak of 30,164 and thus was the greatest net long since February 2013

==

> http://www.kitco.com/news/2014-06-30/Large-Speculators-Ramp-Up-Net-Bullish-Positioning-In-Gold-Silver-CFTC-Data.html

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Some of this is Crazily Bearish - $1300? $1250?

 

Split Views On Gold's Direction For Next Week

Thursday July 3, 2014 12:08 PM

(Kitco News) - Participants in the weekly Kitco News Gold Survey are split on their forecasts for gold’s price direction next week, with no one category garnering a majority and bears having a slight nominal advantage.

Out of 37 participants, 18 responded this week. Of those, seven see higher prices, eight see lower prices and three see prices trading sideways or are neutral. Market participants include bullion dealers, investment banks, futures traders and technical-chart analysts.

Last week, survey participants were mildly bullish for this week. As of 11:30 a.m. EDT, Comex August goldwas down about $3 for the week.

Those who see higher prices next week said they liked that gold held support above $1,305, even though the metal set its weekly low Thursday.

Technical-chart analysts still see gold rising into next week. Darin Newsom, senior analyst at DTN, said the secondary, or intermediate-term, trend for the August gold contract remains up on the weekly chart. “The next price target is pegged at $1,341.50,” he said.

Bob Tebbutt, independent commodities consultant, said the longer-term monthly charts are also bullish for gold. “I believe that the gold market is on the verge of a major move. Technically support is at $1,200, with resistance at around $1,375. I believe that the market will head higher over the next year. Short term $1,375 will be broken … next week,” he said.

Those who see lower prices said the economic news is becoming bearish for the metal.

“The nonfarm payrolls coming in so strong for June is bearish for the gold market as this another indication that some sort of tightening of the Fed’s stance is on the way, which is inherently bearish for gold. The market has shown marked signs of distribution through the month of June and a break below the $1,300 level portends a test of the lows around $1,250,” said Sterling Smith, futures specialist, commodity research at Citibank Institutional Client Group.

==

> http://www.kitco.com/news/2014-07-03/Split-Views-On-Golds-Direction-For-Next-Week.html

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(with Gold down $20 today - this looks too bullish):

 

Too Complacent ?

 

==== : Net : %Bulls*= Up: Dn: N = Surveyed: FriGold > NextWk: Chg.
06/20 : +12 : 69.2% = +18, - 06, N 2 = 26 /37 : $1314.8 > 1316.0 : +0.09%
06/27 : +04 : 52.0% = +13, - 09, N 3 = 25 /37 : $1316.0 > 1320.5 : +0.34%
07/04 : - 01 : 38.9% = +07, - 08, N 3 = 18 /37 : $1320.5 > 1340.0 : +1.48%
07/11 : +11 : 68.0% = +17, - 06, N 2 = 25 /37 : $1340.0 > ????

 

Higher Gold Prices Forecast For Next Week By Survey Participants

Friday June 11, 2014 12:04 PM

(Kitco News) -

Higher gold prices are expected by a majority of survey participants in the weekly Kitco News Gold Survey, following strong technical chart performance and geopolitical worries.

Out of 37 participants, 25 responded this week. Of those, 17 see higher prices, six see lower prices and two see prices trading sideways or are neutral. Market participants include bullion dealers, investment banks, futures traders and technical-chart analysts.

Last week, survey participants were mildly bullish for this week. As of 11:30 a.m. EDT, Comex August goldwas up about $18 for the week.

Many of those who forecast higher prices next week cite both firm technical chart patterns or expect that gold will hold a geopolitical premium.

“The divergence between copper and crude oil relative to gold has widened to levels not seen since mid-March. This four-month period overlaps Comex gold's four-month intraday high of $1,346.80 per ounce. More ominously, the divergence spike … repeats a ‘double-peak’ characteristic that preceded the Great Recession and market turmoil following Arab Spring 2011. The witches brew this time includes multi regional conflicts -- Ukraine/Russia, Iraq/Syria, Israel/Hamas -- re-emerging anxiety about the financial health of Europe's peripheral countries and concerns about China's recent import/export data,” said Richard Baker, editor, Eureka Miner.

Those who see weaker prices said if the U.S. dollar strengthens, gold will retreat.

“The market remained in the $1,310-$1,340 closing-basis range as I expected, but with the dollar showing signs of strengthening, I'm inclined to stay with a $1,325-$1,350 range in the week ahead. You can put me in the bearish category for the week ahead,” said Ken Morrison, editor of the online newsletter Morrison on the Markets.

Just a few participants are neutral on the market or see sideways trade.

“I see gold trading unchanged over the next week; it may retest its $1,330 breakout point but should finish near current levels...

==

> More: http://www.kitco.com/news/2014-07-11/Higher-Gold-Prices-Forecast-For-Next-Week-By-Survey-Participants.html

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Survey Participants Look For Lower Gold Prices Next Week - Kitco News, Jul 25 2014 12:24PM

What To Do With Gold At These Levels - Chart This! - Kitco Video News, Jul 25 2014 2:25PM

=== ===

Survey : From BEFORE Friday's Up thrust

 

gold-3d_zpscee2c78d.gif

 

==== : Net : %Bulls*= Up: Dn: N = Surveyed: FriGold > NextWk: Chg.
07/04 : - 01 : 38.9% = +07, - 08, N 3 = 18 /37 : $1320.5 > 1340.0 : +1.48%
07/11 : +11 : 68.0% = +17, - 06, N 2 = 25 /37 : $1340.0 > 1311.4 : - 2.13%
07/18 : +02 : 44.0% = +11, - 09, N 5 = 25 /37 : $1,311.4 > 1308.3 : - 0.24%
07/25 : -10 : 18.2% = +04, - 14, N 4 = 22 /37 : $1308.3 > ????

 

Out of 37 participants, 22 responded this week. Fourteen see prices down, while four see prices up and four expect prices to be sideways or unchanged. Market participants include bullion dealers, investment banks, futures traders and technical-chart analysts.

Last week, survey participants were split on where prices would head this week. As of Friday at 11:30 a.m. EDT, Comex gold for August delivery was down $10.70 for the week so far to $1,298.70. On Thursday, the contract hit a one-month low of $1,287.50, and many anticipate the downward momentum may continue in the short term, especially if gold breaks convincingly below the 200-day moving of $1,288.20.

“The technical breakdown despite the situation in Gaza and the Ukraine is really laying waste to the safe haven/political theory,” said Sterling Smith, futures specialist with Citi Institutional Client Group. “Traders should be wary of markets that behave poorly when they should behave well or at least in a stable manner.”

. . .

VIDEO (from early Friday):

"Elliot Waves suggest we are in a C-Wave... $1300 was important. Support at $1293, then $1280"

(The C-wave is the final part of a corrective Wave 2)

Note from DrB: The reversal upwards to above $1300 suggests the C-Wave ended.

And a strong wave 3 (up) may be underway - see Video

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Weaker Prices Forecast For Gold Market – Survey Participants

 

Out of 37 participants, 23 responded this week. Of those, eight see higher prices, 12 see lower prices and three see prices trading sideways or are neutral. Market participants include bullion dealers, investment banks, futures traders and technical-chart analysts.

==== : Net : %Bulls*= Up: Dn: N = Surveyed: FriGold > NextWk: Chg.
08/01 : -04 : 33.3% = +08, -12, N 4 = 24 /37 : $1,295.2 > 1310.6 : +1.16%
08/08 : +12 : 66.7% = +18, -06, N 3 = 27 /37 : $1,310.6 > 1305.5 : - 0.39%
08/15 : +00 : 40.0% = +08, -08, N 4 = 22 /37 : $1,305.5 > 1281.8 : - 1.81%
08/22 : -04 : 34.8% = +08, -12, N 3 = 23 /37 : $1,281.8 > ? ?
==== : Net : %Bulls*= Up: Dn: N = Surveyed: FriGold > NextWk: Chg.

Last week, survey participants were evenly split for this week. As of 11:30 a.m. EDT, Comex Decembergold was down about $27 for the week.

Those who see weaker prices said they expect the softer tone gold developed this week to spill over into the last week of August. Ralph Preston, principal, Heritage West Financial, said he expects prices to slip. “From a momentum and technical point of view, the pass of least resistance is down,” he said.

Others pointed to the strength in the U.S. dollar, as the U.S. dollar index rallied above the 81.00 area, which was technical chart resistance. A firmer dollar can weigh on gold prices since gold is dollar-denominated, so the two usually move inversely.

==

> http://www.kitco.com/news/2014-08-22/Weaker-Prices-Forecast-For-Gold-Market-Survey-Participants.html

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BEARISH Sentiment evident

 

Gold May Test $1,200/Oz If Dollar, Stock Gains Continue - Kitco News, Sep 19 2014 2:25PM

Gold Falling To $1,180 Wouldn't Surprise This Trader - Kitco Video News, Sep 19 2014 11:53AM

GCZ4-Close Below $1220 Bearish Downside Target $1180: - by Rich Ilczyszyn , Sep 18 2014 11:20AM

=== ===

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