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TIMING Gold & Silver : "An Easy $500 Gain" says GEI

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TIMING !: Gold & Silver / From the new GoldEdge Blog

 

And from the new GreenEnergy Channel (on YouTube) : https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCS-62aTJ6jBGloc6QTQksHQ

 

"It's TIME... To start preparing for a Major Low in Gold Prices."

 

I plan to promote GEI more, and to help do that I have launched a new Blog on Wordpress :

 

http://GoldEdge.Wordpress.com

This will carry a few Highlights every week from DrBubb's Diary.

Any Links to the Blog will be appreciated !

However, GEI will remain the Main place to read and post comments.

As the Gold price rises, I think we will see Hits and Posting activity pick up on GEI, GoldEdge, and the GE Channel.

 

 

cropped-goldedge-top2.jpg

 

(First Blog post)

 

Get Set for the next Major Low in Gold prices, and more…

 

May 11, 2014- by drbubb5 Leave a comment

I reckon we will see an important LOW in Gold and Gold shares prior to the end of July 2014.

Indeed, that Low may already be in place. So isn’t it a good idea to get onboard near the beginning of the rally?; Rather than waiting months, or years for the next big rally in Gold to be widely perceived.

Most people wait for confirmation by the press and general sentiment, to participate. If you do wait, you may miss out on the big early profits, and lower risk investments that are captured by those who spot a new trend early.

At the same time, there are many changes happening in the world. The global economy, and the way we thing is likely to go through chaotic change. On GEI, we believe that Truth and Change with become the watchwords of a new era which is starting in 2014, and there is plenty to discuss – to get ready for life-disrupting (change)

 

I already have an active website, at: http://GreenEnergyInvestors.com

 

On that site, you can find my GEI Blog, called: “DrBubb’s Diary”

And there are usually several posts each day. On this Blog, here on GoldEdge, I will plan to post the best 2-3 entries each week. So this is a great place to catch the highlights, if you do not have time to dive into the detail on the main website. There you can find not only the comments from myself, Dr Bubb the founder of GEI. But also posts and Investment Blogs of many of our active members.

And if you want to Comment on my posts, you can do so here, or on GEI. It is not hard to become a member. It is free. You just need an invitation, or to know a certain key word or phrase to join up on your own. More will be revealed on that later.

 

There's also a new "Favorite Gold Stock" thread : http://www.greenenergyinvestors.com/index.php?showtopic=19047

 

LINK to here :: http://tinyurl.com/GoldEdgeCharts

 

GoldEdge Blog---------- :: http://goldedge.wordpress.com/

GreenEnergy Channel :: https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCS-62aTJ6jBGloc6QTQksHQ

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A NEW SERIES of short videos discussing Gold and Gold share Charts is planned

 

These will be carried on the new Green Energy Channel :: ( Link )

 

Here is the first:

 

"Gold Low before end of July... $500 of easy upside"

 

GoldEdge-14May14_zps4ccf1fd7.png

 

Listen to the explanation of the recent Gold vs Debt chart, here:

 

 

Comment:

"Gold Low before the End of July 2014..."
"With $500 of Easy upside."

And that's only if Gold climbs back to the level suggested by outstanding US$ debt. As the debts climb, the upside increases. And if the Gold price moves back to the Top of the Channel, there is $1,000 -1,200 of upside. Or in other words: Gold could rise to $2,300-2,500, perhaps within the next year. Experts like Jim Sinclair and Eric Sprott have predicted gold will hit $2,000 within 2014, so a huge price move may arrive quickly, once the Low is in place."

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LINK to the (new) GREEN ENERGY channel on Youtube

 

At the Top of the GEI page, and to the Right of the GoldMoney Ad, you will see:

 

GoldMy-89x33.gifthreadimg_zps765a34af.gif : drB-Diary Blog : Goldstock : Links : A B E G H : Channels: GE : CT : FBB :

 

---------------------------------------------------------------------------------- > Click on ^ ^ / "GE",

...and it will take you to the Green Energy Channel

 

Link is : https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCS-62aTJ6jBGloc6QTQksHQ

On THAT site, is also a Link to return you to GEI - so try it out !!

 

=== ===

 

Note: I am still seeking new (FREE!) subscribers to the channel, so why not join?

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Bellwethers have Rung - And Gold's Low may now be in place
(SCRIPT for a New Video ?)
At the end of last week, I felt like the only Gold Bull on the planet, so negative was the sentiment towards the Yellow metal.
Many people were talking about a triple bottom near $1200, and others were saying that Gold would dip below $1000 before the correction was done.
A BEARISH VIEW had a strong logical behind it. People who do look at seasonal patterns, might know that one of the two or three most bearish periods of the year tends to be from late May into mid-June.
BW-season_zps6c12c01d.png
Meantime, Fundamentalists were saying that the US economy was going to have a better quarter. That is supposed to be Bearish for Gold, isn't it? And others were talking about how a easing move by the ECB might trigger a rise in the Dollar, and that would bring a further silde in Gold prices.
GLD-tri_zps38b725cb.gif

 

Pure chartists also had a good reason to be Bearish. Since late March, Gold had spent more that two months traveling up in down in a narrower and narrower range, moving in what some call a "triangle". A break out of a Triangle often brings a sustained move in whichever direction it break - but not always. On May 27th gold broke the lower end of the Triangle and dropped $29 in a single day, and on fairly decent volume. In just 2-3 days it was down near $1250 and threatening to go lower. The chartists, even on chart-savy places like Kitco started lowering their forecasts and talking about the "technical damage" that had been done to the Gold price.

I was the lonely guy saying: "It might be a Head Fake." Instead of going with the flow, and buying into the predominant Bearish sentiment, I thought it would be better to listen carefully to the small and subtle signals that the market itself was giving to us. There were many postings about these small cross-market signals on my daily diary.
First, I noticed a Ratio, which I have now dubbed the "Gold-to-Anti-Gold Ratio". This name comes from Rick Rule's idea that US T-Bonds are the "Anti-Gold Asset". The Ratio is something simple, but not often used. It is actually a ratio of Gold to TLT, the etf for the US Long Bond.
BW-goldtoAG2_zpse628f00e.png
On Wednesday, and also through later in the week, it made a nice double bottom near 11.00. By the close on Friday, we saw Gold at $1250.5 and TLT at $114.10, giving a ratio of 10.96. At that level, people could exchange about 11 shares of TLT for one ounce of gold. The ratio had been as high as near 14 shares per ounce at Gold's peak in Sept. 2011.
This historical chart told me this level might be important. It line up almost perfectly with the lowest level of the prior Three years. In fact, the 2013 low was 11.02, made on a significant day - at the end of June 2013, the exact same day when Gold made its major Low at $1186. So we were seeing a potential Major Double Bottom in this Ratio. I could not help but think: there must be some people out there who are holding bonds, who would begin to consider that this might be a great time to start moving more aggressively out of T-Bonds into Gold and Gold shares. Sound logic might tell them: There's no good reason to be "heroic" and go on holding a high risk, almost return-free instrument like bonds when you have such an ideal opportunity to switch into Gold and preserve your wealth in a hard asset.
Next Up are my "Bellwethers".
That's what I like to call a small number of premium gold shares which have a tendency to Bottom a day before, or a few days before the Gold price. Right now that list includes: Royal Gold (symbol: RGLD), Franco Nevada (FNV.t), and GDXJ, the etf for Junior gold shares.
BellW_zps6b8ee6ce.gif
In the video, I compare the movement of TWO bellwethers with GLD. They reverse to the Upside late last week, Ringing A Bell for me... and have gone on ringing yesterday:
+ RGLD is now +10.5% off its recent low, and is +1.6% above the level before gold slid out of the Triangle.
+ GDXJ is +7.7% off the Low last week, and is only -1.5% below the gap
+ GLD is relatively weaker, only +1% off its low, and -3.1% below the gap down from May 27th.
====== - Low- : when/Day : -Last- : + change : --Gap- : Vs. Gap
RGLD : $58.86 : 28May W : $65.03 : +10.48%: $63.98 : + 1.64%
GDXJ : $32.43 : 28 May W : $34.39 : + 7.65% : $34.91 : - 1.49%
GLD - : 119.42 : 03Jun.Tu : 120.66 : + 1.04% : 124.51 : - 3.09%
======

If these markers all follow the pattern that I have seen at previous major lows, then Gold and Gold stocks may go on rallying, and GLD will fill the gap, and SOON move above the point of the pinchpoint in the Triangle, at about GLD-$125. I suppose that is when the nervous Bulls who exited might start thinking about getting long again.
The technical function of moves like this can be a "Head Fake" to get many traders on the wrong side of a trade before an important move.. Stale longs sell out when Gold drops below the Triangle, and Bears rush in to take big short positions. It gets everyone lined up with the WRONG position in the market. Then, when the market tricks them and moves higher, one by one they realize the market isn't going down, they are forced to cover shorts, and that adds extra fuel to push the market higher. along the way, the reluctant Bulls re-join the party on the long side, perhaps paying more than if they had just held onto their longs. What we are seeing in the Gold market seems like a classic Head Fake situation to me.
Even so : I cannot guarantee that we will see a strong Bull Market starting here!
(Please take note: I will go on listening to the small day-to-day signals from the market. AND if the indications start looking different, I will post about that.)
I have gone on record (in my May 15th Video) saying that I expected a Major Low before the end of July 2014. I believe that we have seen it. In fact I started buying last week, and continued yesterday. I am mainly focused highly leveraged situations - That includes some Call options with a maturity of at least Jan. 2015, when I think Gold and Gold shares could be MUCH Higher. I will describe these investments in more detail in my Diary. Have a look there, if you are interested in the day-to-day commentary. I don't always get it right. But I do think you will see some charts and some ideas you might see nowhere else.
Please feel free to share the URL of this Video with everyone you think will have an interest. I am hoping to do this podcasts, and some interviews on a more regular basis. And it would be great to have a larger base of Free Subscribers.
Thanks for listening!
Dr Bubb's JUNE Diary is at:

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Thanks !

 

The Video is Done now, and will soon be available on YouTube

 

 

PLEASE SHARE the Link Widely, if you like the Video !

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Thanks !

 

The Video is Done now, and will soon be available on YouTube

 

 

PLEASE SHARE the Link Widely, if you like the Video !

 

@ 8:23 or thereabouts.... seem to hear 2013. Pretty sure you meant 2014

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My Accurate CALL of last year's Gold's LOW at $1,186-ish ...

 

- made at the end of June 2013 Low,

was noticed in a posting here:
http://www.godlikeproductions.com/forum1/message2276956/pg1
(check the Date, and the Forecast):

. .

06/28/2013 11:53 AM
= QUOTE =
"Gold hit a Fibonacci Point at $1,186, and then Jumped:
Happy Days are here again?!

(According to this - he's been calling it well!)":
[link to www.greenenergyinvestors.com]: http://www.greenenergyinvestors.com/index.php?showtopic=17872&&page=11
= UNQUOTE =

 

Historical CHART: the Jump in GDXJ came just as Gold was bottoming at $1186 / GLD-$115

 

GDXJ - vs: CU, OILB, DBA ... update

q26.gif

 

End of June 2013 Levels: (28 Jun was a Friday):
Marker : 26June : 27June : 28June : %-Chg. : Open- : - High - : - Low -
GLD -- : 118.28 : 115.94 :: 119.11 :: +2.73% : 115.22 :: 119.33 : 114.68
GDX -- : $22.22 : $22.79 : $ 24.49 : +7.46% : $22.50 : $ 24.66 : $22.46
Gdxj -- : $ 08.26 : $08.45 : $ 09.16 : +8.40% : $08.39 : $ 09.31 : $08.37
Gold -- : 1229.0 : 1232.0 : 1203.3 : (London PM Gold fix) Mon : $1243.5
=====
Note: GDX, Gdxj closing low was one day earlier than GLD's closing Low !






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FOR THE RECORD - here's a bit of history - from the comments at the Gold Edge Blog

 

(Doahh):
Submitted on 2014/05/17 at 10:08 am
Thanks Bubb, I remember you correctly calling the top at $1,900 and warning people that it may be done for a while. I also think that the bottom may be in soon (fib retrace is about to be hit) but it is good to get confirmation. It is about time gold had a good streak, it has been building a base for a long time.
(DrBubb5);
Thanks for remembering that!
I reckon we have to remain alert. And even I guy (like me, maybe) who often gets it Right, is going to have some wrong calls from time to time. That's why we have to go on, listening to the "small and subtle sounds and signals" of the Market. And the guy whose ego is not in check, may be set up for a wrong call.
If you want to Hear one of my wrong calls, it is here on Frisby's Bulls and Bears :
Thank goodness, I did talk about the importance of the nearby support level at around Gold-$1650 / GLD-$160, which it eventually broke.
CHARTS - from Feb. 2013 ... GLD-wk : GLD-daily
gld.gif
gld12mo.gif
After that, the deluge came. In hindsight, I should have said more about what would happen if broken, since I had in mind a downside target of "maybe $1200" thanks to a HK-based Hedge Fund guy called "B." whose track record in calling Gold, I will acknowledge is better than my own (so far as I am aware.)

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GOLD's NOT JUMPING! ... Yet.

The way it normally does, if a major Low has been put in place.

 

The Low is still possible. But we need to consider "What next" if nearby support goes.

 

I did not do that at a previous Call, so I shall this time... see likely Support Levels below:

=========

 

GLD-Weekly ... update : Key Support levels below GLD-$119... are: $115 and $100

GLD-wk_zps2661b636.gif

 

GLD-Daily ... ( 21, 55, 252, 480d-MAs ) update :

GLD-day_zps58ded7b5.gif

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(This showed up on GLP ):

 

Gold "BUY", from Guy who called last year's Low

I read his post last June, and posted this here on GLP:
Thread: Gold hit a Fibonacci Point at $1,186, and then Jumped: Happy Days?!
... catching the exact LOW in Gold this year.

Same guy at GEI has just put out a new VIDEO :



He says Gold Low may be in place, and the yellow metal will soon follow Gold shares higher.

He also has a Blog, with more detail:
[link to goldedge.wordpress.com]

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GDX Looking Good ... update : 2-years : 6-mos : 252dMA turned up??

 

GDX-6mo_zps93b01b97.gif

 

(from another site):

 

"suggestions for other investments": ?
Gold, silver, and Gold stocks.
Look at the Long term chart on GDX. I don't think you can argue it looks expensive:
GDX_zpsedd46946.gif
I still think some properties in the Philippines can be attractive, given the higher yields there, and the fact that Makati/Manila is the sixth cheapest major CBD on the planet. And the 5 below it are mostly hellholes. I think Manila will climb the ladder as its growth continues, and its virtues become better owned.
It is possible to call these Turns - as was done recently:
Right on the Low, and many times before.
Though not with 100% accuracy. I think people who own little Gold or few Gold shares will regret that before the end of 2014.

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Gold looks set for a Big Run up


Why do I say that?

In brief, because of the seasonal cycles, and the price structure.

Now let me explain this more slowly...

==

In mid-May with Gold prices at $1300, I put out a Video saying that I expected a MAJOR LOW in Gold before the end of July, with "$500 of easy upside." To summarise my argument back then: I observed that there was a correlation between Gold prices and US debts. And that this relationship had stayed in a long term relationship since at least 2000.


GoldDebt_zps00fdf262.png


US Debts were rising steadily. But Gold had shown some wild swings within an uptrend around the Debt. First in 2011, Gold shot up too fast and traded at about $500 above the Debt correlation - as Gold rose to $1920. Then gold fell for two years, reaching a low below $1200 at the end of 2013. At that level, gold could rise by about $500 before it went back to its historical relationship to US Debt. Right now, US Federal Debt is at about $17.6 Trillion. Its historical relationship* suggests an equivalent Gold price of $1720 per ounce. So with Gold presently at near $1300, there should be $400 of "easy upside." US Debt is rising at a Gold equivalent of perhaps $100 per year. On top of that, it might swing to the Top of the channel, which could add another $500 or so. The Formula which I have derived from the charts suggests a Gold price of about $1900 at the end of 2015, or $2,400 if it swings to the Top of the Long term channel.


Gold%20Seasonal.jpg


Why did I say "the end of July"? Because of seasonal cycles. There is often a low in the Summer, usually in July or August. And that seasonal cycle may be bottoming now, or sometime within August. In my mind, this cycle is driven by seasonal factors, such as the Indian wedding season, and flows in and out of the Dollar. It is only one factor pulling on Gold, and I think it is likely we have seen the bottom in Gold prices already.


elliott-wave-Stretched_zps694f9e5f.png


There is something called the Elliott Wave, which uses repeating price patterns to predict future price moves. The biggest move is usually the third wave. My own reading of the waves, backed up by the work of people like Gary Wagner suggests that wave 2, the corrective wave which precedes Wave-3 finished on Friday. Friday brought a $14 move up in Gold, closing back over $1300. It is interesting to note, that on Friday morning before the upthrust in Gold, we saw a rare negative -11 reading in the Ktico Gold survey*. I believe that this survey was providing a nice contrarian indicator, suggesting the negative news may have already been priced into the Gold prices as it was trading down at about $1292 on Thursday, just before Friday's strong price rally.


What could cause a Jump in the Gold price?

I do not relying on predicting future events in my forecasts. But neither do ignore them entirely. I do note that there are now various big political stresses in the world. These include Israel's conflict with Palestine, and continuing strife in the Ukraine. And I also note that the US economy may NOT be growing as fast as some have predicted. If US growth comes in at BELOW the 3% that has been predicted for Q2, then Fed may not be so quick to end operation Twist, wherein it buys US T-Bonds. One economist, Gary Shilling has announced his own prediction this weekend that Q2 growth may have been 1% or less. If this proves true, the news when it breaks could give a nice kick to the Gold price. On top of these various foreseeable news drivers, are a whole variety of influences that are not predictable. The big point is, when the cycles are right, and price structure is right - as it seems to be now - it is much easier for any Gold-positive news to push the price higher.


GDX / etf for Gold Miners ... update


GDX_zpsdfca4347.gif


In my earlier Videos, and on the GEI website, I mentioned some Gold stocks that I am tracking. The main one is GDX, the Gold Miners index. This index trade as low $20.52, on the last day of 2013. Then, it had a nice 36.6% rally into a mid-March at $28.03. And then pulled back into a low near $22, just as I was releasing my second video, "The Bellwethers have Rung". That video proved very timely, and we saw a nice 26% rally to $27.78 by July 10th. I call that wave-1, within a bigger structure. Since then we had a xx% correction, which I call wave-2, and I believe that ended on Thursday at $25.95. If I am right, then I would expect wave-3 to bring a rally of at least 26% to $33, and it could be much more than that.


The next few weeks and months could be very rewarding for Gold investors.

======




Federal Debt : $17.589 Trillion

+ State Govt. : $ 1.21 Trillion

+ Local Govt. : $ 1.92 Trillion

= Govt. Debt : $20.719 Trillion

====



Gold Formula : (Fed'l Debt - $4.0 Trillion ) x 119 +$100

====


History-- : Fed'l Debt : - $4.00 : x 119 : + $100 : Gold-Ln : Differ.

End2015: $19.0 eTr. : $15.00 : $1789: $1,889 :

End2014: $18.2 eTr. : $14.20 : $1690: $1,790 :

06/30/14 : $17.63 Tr. : $13.63 : $1621: $1,721 : $1,315 : (406) :

12/31/13 : $17.35 Tr. : $13.35 : $1589: $1,689 : $1,202 : (487) :

06/30/13 : $16.74 Tr. : $12.74 : $1516: $1,616 : $1,192 : (424) :

12/31/12 : $16.43 Tr. : $12.43 : $1479: $1,579 : $1,664 : $085 :

06/30/12 : $15.86 Tr. : $11.86 : $1411: $1,511 : $1,599 : $088 :

12/31/11 : $15.22 Tr. : $11.22 : $1335: $1,435 : $1,575 : $140 :

09/06/11 : $15.22 Tr. : $11.22 : $1335: $1,435 : $1,895 : $460 :

06/30/11 : $14.34 Tr. : $10.34 : $1230: $1,330 : $1,506 : $176 :

12/31/10 : $14.03 Tr. : $10.03 : $1194: $1,294 : $1,410 : $106 :





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Nice work Dr - here's hoping you're right.

 

Your theory raises the question - does debt matter (in a world in which you can print your own money)? And are gold and US debt still related?

 

Gold bugs will tell you debt does matter. And that debt and gold are related. And that 'it can't go on much longer'. All that stuff. But recent years (and the 80s and 90s) would suggest otherwise.

 

I don't believe this chart for a second, but it's a bit of gold price erotica, so I post it anyway

 

GOLD-LONG-TERM-ELLIOTT-WAVE-PROJECTION3.

 

From here- http://tradermc.com/articles/gold-elliott-wave-projection-since-1970/

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("Gold looks Set for a Big Run-up"), a recent post, has been turned into a Video:

 

PLEASE SHARE ! And subscribe, if you have not already.

 

 

A key thing to look at is that Correlation with US Debt, which goes on Rising:

 

Swings have been about $500, to either side of Debt's Gold equivalent.

 

History-- : Fed'l Debt : - $4.00 : x 119 : + $100 : Gold-Ln : Differ.
End2015 $19.0 eTr. : $15.00 : $1789: $1,889 : --------> +$500 = about $2,400
End2014: $18.2 eTr. : $14.20 : $1690: $1,790 :
06/30/14 : $17.63 Tr. : $13.63 : $1621: $1,721 : $1,315 : (406) :
12/31/13 : $17.35 Tr. : $13.35 : $1589: $1,689 : $1,202 : (487) :
06/30/13 : $16.74 Tr. : $12.74 : $1516: $1,616 : $1,192 : (424) :
Peak :
09/06/11 : $15.22 Tr. : $11.22 : $1335: $1,435 : $1,895 : $460 :
So far, so good.
The previous two Videos, have stood the test of Time very well:

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COMMENTS - re: the late July Video

 

I hope you don't mind me recording some of the comments on the latest Video

from the GOLD thread:

 

 

Great video Bubb, salient points and concise too

=

Agree - it was a great video. Clear, concise and actionable without being unrealistically confident of an uncertain future - not the waffle or unsupportable bombast that too many commentators indulge in.

 

I will definitely be listening to more of these.

 

But good comments alone will not make the forecast work out - only price action over time will do that

 

If people have YouTube accounts, it would be great to see some comments posted on the channel

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Is History Repeating ? - see pink circles

 

GOLD-LONG-TERM_zps6a52e75d.png

 

Gary Wagner's E-wave analysis in the following Video,

fits into the above chart well

 

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3 of 3 is supposed to be good for rocket pictures. A lot of IF BS theory here, basically and to summarise+ if it goes down it goes down and if it goes up it goes up and if my aunt has balls shes my uncle.

 

Ellliot waves, fibs and candlesticks. Who knows? Your guess is as good as ours. But we'll get it right when we look back with hindsight. Ah! Hindsight. Yah, great!

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(Duplicated here - for the record):

 

I Called the Top in Silver at $48-50 : old thread-Apr.2011

 

Now I want Readers and Listeners to consider getting back into Silver !

 

TIME to start layering in some Silver positions?

Prices are cheap enough now, but leave open the possibility of a retest of the Low of the Year

 

SILVER BEAR versus Bull - from March 2013 - and how it went...

 

VIDEO DEBATE - JPMORGAN SILVER MANIPULATION: FACT or FANTASY? - Bill Murphy vs Don Harrold

==

Published on 14 Mar 2013

For years, JPMorgan has been accused of silver price suppression. Bill Murphy, chairman of the Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee faces Don Harrold, founder of the Day Trade Show, in a debate on whether JPMorgan has engaged in this criminal market activity. Besides JPMorgan, could other large market players be manipulating silver prices? Could even the Federal Reserve and US Government be conspiring with others to artificially suppress precious metal prices? Stay tuned and find out!

 

On March 14 2013, SLV closed at $27.80, and Silver about $28.90 (x1.04)
Same old, same old from Murphy.
Don Harrold said: GATA is good because it "pushes the envelope".
But he does not believe that JPM engages in one-way (downwards) manipulation.
BM : "Silver is going to blow Sky-High... Prices are artificially low."
DH : "You ought to be waiting for lower prices... We should warn the public.
The last time I bought was at $28. I'm out of the trade right now... React to next move."
My target is $17.50 -18.50 on the downside."

Find Don Harrold online : http://DayTradeShow.com / http://www.youtube.com/user/DayTradeShow
Find Bill Murphy online - : http://www.GATA.org / http://www.LeMetropoleCafe.com

 

Update: Silver Charts

 

Silver - since Aug. 2011 - peak was above $48 on Apr.28, 2011 / SLV: $48.35

Silver_zps649d4008.png

 

SLV / Silver etf ... SLV-5yrs : SLV-from-Jun.20141yr :

SLV-log_zps4d442540.gif

 

The Silver Low may be in place ("triple bottom at $18.17 / $18.72 / $18.61) , with inverted Right Shoulder forming

 

SLV-Jun14_zps0edc7280.gif

 

Or a retest of the Low may be needed.

 

I think it is not too early to start putting Silver / SLV / AG positions on.

 

I think whether or not the Timing is right may depend on DBA / CRB,

which I am now watching closely.

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It's TIME to Rediscover SILVER- v.2

 

 

I haven't spoken or written much about Silver over the past 2-3 years. That may be about to change.
With Silver now trading below $20.00, and SLV near $19... It is probably Time to Start thinking seriously about Buying Silver once Again

I think NOW is good time to put Silver back near the Top of your Watch List, and start layering in some positions. You can do it, by purchasing silver metal, buying Silver-related etfs, or buying CALLS on SLV ... or maybe on AGQ, a 2X Bull etf on Silver. You can use a combination of these methods, with your choice depending on what is the easiest way for you to hold it - and whether you are comfortable with the volatility inherent in Options. I do think that an important element of your holdings should probably be in physical metal, or a good phsyical silver backed etf, like PSLV - the Sprott Silver etf.

 

Sym.: 12-31-13 : 08-08-14 : % Chg.
=====
Nugt : -- $27.41 : -- $46.66 : +70.23 % : 3X Bull etf on Gold shares
Gdxj : -- $31.05 : -- $41.83 : +34.72 % : Junior Gold Miners
GDX : -- $21.13 : -- $26.78 : +26.74 % : Senior Gold Miners
SIL - : -- $11.20 : -- $14.18 : +26.60 % : Silver shares
Phys : -- $09.96 : -- $10.88 : + 9.24 % : Sprott phsyical Gold etf
GLD : -- 116.12 : -- 126.19 : + 8.67 % : Gold etf
PSlv : -- $07.57 : -- $08.06 : + 6.47 % : Sprott phsyical Silver etf
SLV :: -- $18.71 : -- $19.19 : + 2.66 % : Silver etf
AGQ : -- $63.04 : -- $63.82 : + 1.24 % : 2X Bull etf on Silver
======================

 

GoldE-SLV-Aug11-pt4B_zps49106baa.png :

 

GEI called the Top back in April 2011 : "$50-ish Peak in Silver Coming? Hunting the Top"

http://www.greenenergyinvestors.com/index.php?showtopic=14696 :

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STACKING SILVER (like a madman?)

 

Silver-coins1.jpg

A cool $444K Worth - and here's how ...

 

> see drB's Diary, post #84: http://www.greenenergyinvestors.com/index.php?showtopic=19306&page=5

 

In reality, I see this move as an arbitrage trade, swapping from NUGT Calls (GDX) to AGQ Calls (SLV),

when the Ratio to SLV-to-GDX was at a "cheap" Ratio, just under 70%.

 

SLV-toGDX_zpsf2dee26d.png

 

How smart is this? Only time will tell... Time, and my Diary as I revisit the trade in the days and weeks to come. BTW, the sell side of the trade, selling NUGT Calls, realized a profit of over 200% on some calls. So some of my ideas do work.

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A confirmation of the analysis in the Video?

 

 

The recent jump in the premium is very similar to what was seen 2X previously,

prior to Silver price rises:

 

SGE-silver-40_zpsf57ddeae.png

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