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INFLATION Watch : El Nino, "Crops at Risk" in 2nd Half?

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EL NINO : "Crops at Risk..." (Inflation coming... as early as July?)

 

"... as El Nino worries ripple across Asia" - says SCMP article

 

DBA / Agri fund ... update : CRB-chart : JJG-grains-chart // updated July 11th

Old charts: May8 :

DBA_zps2558e3cf.gif

 

=== update ===

 

Sliding Grain prices are dragging down Agri prices, and holding CRB steady

 

WEAT - the etf for Wheat vs. CORN, DBA and CRB ... update

 

WEAT_zps75fb69fb.gif

==== ====

 

"The extreme weather than wreaked havoc last year could get worse if forecasts are correct"

 

+ The El Nino* forming may match 1997-98... development possible as early as July

+ Extreme weather is being seen: winter polar vortex, typhoons without end

+ Could get worse if the El Nino hits

 

Expected crop yields, wheat in 2014-15:

- China: 120 mn tonnes, down from 121.7mn - imported 7-8mn tonnes last year

- India: 95 mn tonnes

 

=====

ElNino_zpsc430c3f5.gif

 

* El Nino: "Abnormal warming of waters in the Pacific, which hits every 3-7 years"

"First noticed by anchovy fishermen off South America in the 19th century."

Developing countries dependent upon agriculture and fishing, particularly those bordering the Pacific Ocean, are the most affected. El niño is Spanish for "the boy", and the capitalized term El Niño refers to the Christ child, Jesus, because periodic warming in the Pacific near South America is usually noticed around Christmas

==

> wiki : http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/El_Ni%C3%B1o

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El Nino & La Nina explanation

=

=

 

Staring point: July

+ Very wet, lots of clouds

+ Winds blowing into low pressure zones

 

el-nino2.jpg

 

Around Christmas-time the big drama starts...

 

Comment - Soumya Samanta

at 3:39 mins in the video clip, you have said that in normal condition there is a high pressure at the surface of the tropical east Pacific. I have some question here... as the total equator gets equal incoming radiation from the Sun, why only that portion of the Pacific become a high pressure area? if you say that this is because of subsidence of the dry air (Walker Cycle), then why the dry air subside in that portion? when the air in the west Pacific become hot and go upwards, it has to be move in all direction, not only in the particular tropical east pacific portion.

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The DBA/agri - 1,2,3 Inflation pattern - Will it repeat ?

 

A new Inflation Up-wave may have started already with an "a" move in DBA.

A new "b" move in SLV may kick off the dramatic part

 

DBA /Ags versus SLV, GLD, FXF, FXE ... From 1/1/2007 : from 5/8/2009 : Hist. : 2013-14 : 2014 alone :

 

DBAetc2_zps84863187.gif

 

An upwards break above the downtrend in SLV / Silver (soon?!) could be an important Triggering mechanism.

 

Note how the Peaks came in during the last cycle:

 

# : Starting in : - Low- : Peak - Timing- : to Peak/ $-Low : Timing-- : -Drop % / $-Now : -Chg.%

(from 1/05/07) :

1 - DBA / Agri. : $25.02 : $35.44- 03/03/11 : +042% / $24.12- 01/21/14 : - 32.1% / $29.13 : - 17.8%
2 - SLV / Silver : $12.18 : $46.88- 04/29/11 : +285% / $18.45- 01/31/14 : - 60.6% / $18.80 : - 59.9%
3 - FXE / Euro. : 130.09 : 147.74- 05/02/11 : +014% / 127.13- 05/17/13 : - 14.0% / 137.52 : - 06.9%
4 - FXF / SwFr : $80.97 : 136.78- 08/09/11 : +069% / 100.42- 05/22/13 : - 26.6% / 111.92 : - 18.2%
5 - GLD / Gold : $60.17 : 182.90- 09/06/11 : +204% / 115.39- 12/30/13 : - 36.9% / 125.98 : - 31.1%

(from 5/08/09) : chart :
1 - DBA / Agri. : $26.73 : $35.44- 03/03/11 : +033% / $24.12- 01/21/14 : - 32.1% / $29.13 : - 17.8%
2 - SLV / Silver : $13.79 : $46.88- 04/29/11 : +240% / $18.45- 01/31/14 : - 60.6% / $18.80 : - 59.9%
3 - FXE / Euro. : 136.24 : 147.74- 05/02/11 : +008% / 127.13- 05/17/13 : - 14.0% / 137.52 : - 06.9%
4 - FXF / SwFr : $90.20 : 136.78- 08/09/11 : +052% / 100.42- 05/22/13 : - 26.6% / 111.92 : - 18.2%
5 - GLD / Gold : $89.98 : 182.90- 09/06/11 : +103% / 115.39- 12/30/13 : - 36.9% / 125.98 : - 31.1%
======

 

Note the Running ORDER of the Peaks: DBA > SLV/Silver, FXE... ending with FXF/Sw.Franc and GLD/Gold : Last !

 

Note the huge Outsized Up-move in Silver !

 

For the Level of the LOWS, this information is interesting:

 

One thing that jumped out at me in the data table was this

- Clear and highly accurate Targets generated from Fibonacci relationships:

 

Price: I-day High - Timing : x Fibo% : Target / Act.Low - Timing
===
SLV : $47.98 - 04/29/11: x 38.2% = $18.32 / $18.26 - 12/31/13
GLD : 185.85 - 09/06/11: x 61.8% = 114.85 / 114.46 - 12/31/13
FXE : 151.27 - 11/25/09 : x 78.6% = 118.90 / 119.73 - 07/24/12, earlier low: 118.79- 06/08/10

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CORN Price slumps as U.S. Forecasts a Record Crop - WSJ Headline

 

Jul.Corn fell nine cents (-1.7%) to $5.075

 

US Agri. Dept. forecast a Record Crop this autumn:

 

+ 13.935 billion bushels, slightly higher than last year's record crop

+ "The weather will be normal" in the farm belt

+ US corn stockpiles should surge to 1.726 billion bushels before the 2015, higher than expected

+ Corn futures lid 40% last year, as farmer produced the highest crop in history one year after a drought

 

CORN.L / ETFS Commodity Securities Ltd. ETFS Corn USD ... update // JJG-chart : DBA-chart

 

CORN_zps019b4781.gif

 

There's certainly room for disappointment in these forecasts

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A bad week for Wheat and Corn

 

/ Another Quiet Week, except falling grains ----- /

== Last WEEK's MOVES ==== : on Friday 05/16 alone = :
GLD : 124.10 : + 0.32 % / 124.50 : -0.27 : -0.22% / 3.91 M
GDX : $23.73 : - 1.31 % > $23.42 : -0.20 : -0.85% / 14.6 M
SIL- : $12.03 : + 0.17 % / $12.05 : -0.11 : -0.90% : 74,321
DBA : $28.48 : - 0.46 %/ $28.35 : -0.26 : -0.91% : 1,405,779
Cop'r $3.086 : + 1.98 % / $3.147 : +0.003 : +0.10% : 33,982
WTI-: 100.07 : + 2.11 % / 102.18 : +0.62 : +0.61% : 132,667
CRB: 304.57 : + 0.44 % / 305.92 : -1.16 : -0.38% : View-Chart
Wheat 723.0 : - 6.74 % / 674.25 : -3.25 : -0.48% : 47,035
Corn: 507.50 : - 4.63 % / 484.00 : -0.50 : -0.10% : 85,760
Sugar: .1720 : + 4.07 % / $.1790 : -0.003: -1.59% : 44,158
BTC : $452.0: - 0.52 % / $449.65 : +0.53% :

BIG MOVERS : (more than 5% moves)
============

Wheat 723.0 : - 6.74 % / 674.25 :
Corn: 507.50 : - 4.63 % / 484.00 : (slightly under -5%)

=

 

Last week, the report of an "expect" record wheat and grain harvest weighed on prices

 

DBA was also down : - 0.46%

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El Nino Is Coming: Time To Buy Gold? - by Kira McCaffrey Brecht , Jun 6 2014 12:32PM

 

The last El Nino event occurred in 2009 and this year scientists are already seeing ocean waters temperature climb to above normal levels. It will take several months before the NOAA (National Oceanic And Atmospheric Administration) declares an official El Nino event —due to their strict scientific definition. But, it may already be underway.

 

Drew Lerner, senior agricultural meteorologist at Kansas-based World Weather Inc., estimates 80-85% odds that an El Nino event will impact global weather patterns this year. "The El Nino impact on world weather is already underway," Lerner said pointing to an already delayed start to the monsoon season in India.

In very general terms, El Nino events tend to impact certain parts of the globe in different ways, but that does include lower than normal precipitation levels in Indonesia, Malaysia, and West Africa, Northern South America, Southeast Asia, Thailand, Vietnam and India to name a few.

 

Again, what does weather have to do with gold? Well, Jodie Gunzberg, global head of commodities at S&P Dow Jones Indices ran some numbers looking back at eight historical El Nino events since 1983. "The metals showed positive performance in most of the periods with average returns of 25.3% and 8.9% from industrial metals and precious metals, respectively," Gunzberg wrote in a research note. The metals returns were measured via the S&P GSCI Industrial Metals and S&P GSCI Precious Metals indices.

 

Sound strange? Maybe not. El Nino years are associated with drought—though they don't always correlate to actual drought years. But, El Nino events do have potential to impact a wide range of global agricultural production. If weather disrupts crop production, prices go up, and that, of course, is inflationary. Metals are a traditional hedge against inflation.

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FOOD INFLATION OR NOT?

There are cross-currents. I usually believe the Commodity prices

 

The Weight of Wheat (and Corn)

 

Sliding Grain prices are dragging down Agri prices, and holding CRB steady

 

WEAT - the etf for Wheat vs. CORN, DBA and CRB ... update

 

WEAT_zps75fb69fb.gif

 

Over two years Wheat is down 45%, and Corn is off over 42%.

This must be helping reduce inflation in Food prices - which most the world likes, but it cannot go on forever.

 

CRAZY Contradictions in the News !

(1)

Food price inflation falls to lowest ever levels

Your Money-Jul 9, 2014
Food price inflation, at 0.6 per cent, is the lowest ever recorded ... Non-food deflation accelerated to 3.4 per cent in June from 2.8 per cent in ...

 

(2)

Food Inflation to Cool as Farm Prices Dip

Fox Business-19 hours ago
The outlook for world food inflation looks lower and more stable as agricultural commodity prices settle over the next decade following years of ...
(3)
China June CPI Inflation Slows As Food Prices Ease
RTT News-Jul 8, 2014
Chinese consumer prices inflation slowed in June from an 4-month high, as food prices increased at a slower rate, a report from the National ...
Economists React: China's Inflation Remains Muted
Blog-Wall Street Journal (blog)-Jul 8, 2014
... OR are Food prices RISING ??
(4)
Food Prices Are Soaring And Washington Doesn't Care
The Federalist-Jul 8, 2014
U.S. food prices are on the rise, raising a sensitive question: When the cost of a hamburger patty soars, does it count as inflation? It does to ...
(5)
As Food Prices Rise, Fed Keeps a Watchful Eye
Wall Street Journal-Jul 7, 2014
U.S. food prices are on the rise, raising a sensitive question: When the cost of a hamburger patty soars, does it count as inflation? It does to ..
(6)
Why are food prices skyrocketing?
The Week Magazine-by John Aziz-Jul 7, 2014
But this view ignores the reality that overall inflation is much lower than food pricerises. That's because the factors pushing certain food prices ...
The Fed's surprising reaction to rising food prices
Yahoo Finance (blog)-Jul 7, 2014

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CRAZY Contradictions in Food Price Inflation indicators

 

NA-CB858_OUTLOO_G_20140706142404.jpg

Summary
The outlook for world food inflation looks lower and more stable as agricultural commodity prices settle ... Agricultural markets remained turbulent, after near-record prices in 2012 prompted increased production which led to surpluses for wheat, rice, sugar and vegetable meal. The outlook is therefore starting from a "correction period" which is expected to persist for one or two more years.

Bad weather and concerns over export restrictions were blamed for the 2012 price surge... The OECD and FAO said crop prices would drop for one or two more years before stabilizing at levels above those seen before 2008, but below recent peaks. Wheat prices are projected to slide about 1 percent a year in real terms for the next 10 years, staying around 13 percent below the previous decade's average.

Global agricultural production and consumption will rise in the next decade, as wealthier people in emerging countries eat more protein, but the growth rate will be slower than in the previous 10 years, the agencies said. Strong demand for meat from an expanding middle class in the Middle East and Asia will keep meat prices from falling as much as feed grain prices, and meat prices in real terms will average higher than the previous decade after general price inflation.

While the Americas will remain the dominant export region globally, Ukraine will become Europe's biggest exporter of grains and oilseeds. Worries about conflict in Ukraine disrupting shipments helped force prices higher earlier this year, but the FAO said in June these concerns had receded as shipping patterns from the country remained regular and weather conditions improved.
. . .
Chinese consumer prices inflation slowed in June from an 4-month high, as food prices increased at a slower rate, a report from the National Bureau of Statistics showed Wednesday. Nevertheless, the increase was slightly below the consensus estimate. Consumer prices increased 2.3 percent year-on-year in June following the 2.5 percent increase in May. Economists had expected prices to rise 2.4 percent. Core consumer prices, excluding food and energy, rose 1.7 percent year-over-year. Notwithstanding the elevated headline inflation, aside of food, prices were largely stable. Among the sub-categories, food prices climbed the most, by 3.7 percent in June, contributing 1.21 percentage points to the overall rise in prices. This was followed by a 2.6 percent increase in clothing prices and a 2.2 percent rise in housing prices.
. . .
food-compare_zps78e75a85.png

The consumer price of ground beef in May rose 10.4% from a year earlier while pork chop prices climbed 12.7%. The price of fresh fruit rose 7.3% and oranges 17.1%. But prices for cereals and bakery products were up just 0.1% and vegetable prices inched up only 0.5%. The U.S. Department of Agriculture predicts overall food prices will increase 2.5% to 3.5% this year after rising 1.4% in 2013, as measured by the Labor Department’s consumer-price index. In a typical supermarket, shoppers are seeing higher prices around the store’s periphery, in the produce section and at the meat counter.

food-vswages_zps25d313b1.png

 

So why aren’t politicians talking about this? It’s absolutely clear that Fed, farm, energy, and trade policy have all served to drive up these costs. Well, tearing down those policies runs contrary to the interests of Washington interest groups heavily invested in controlling those knobs and levers. But a bigger part of the problem is priorities driven by a linguistic trap. Politicians who are small businessmen or attorneys by training talk about the marketplace as a place full of entrepreneurs, and talk about government in terms of its size and tax burdens and barriers to job growth. They’re caught in the trap of viewing all these things in aggregate.

But that’s not how the middle or working class think about the economy. A politician talking about “creating new jobs” or “spurring investment” of “increasing exports” sounds nice, but that’s all it is – nice-sounding. Most Americans worry generally about the lack of jobs and growth, sure, but they are far more worried about what they perceive as a higher cost of living at a time of stagnant wages.

. . .

 

Some food prices have also been bolstered by high demand in emerging markets such as China and Russia, where rising incomes and the emergence of a new middle class have increased consumption of dairy products, as well as meat.

The good news is that these factors will subside, eventually. The transitory weather-related factors will subside — and even if (due to climate change) the future brings many more such events, producers can adapt, for example by growing crops in climate-controlled greenhouses. And rising global demand from the new global middle class for meat and dairy will be met with rising global supply of those products from producers seeking a bigger slice of profitable market share.

The bad news is there's very little that can really be done about it right now. One (incorrect) view is that the sharply rising food prices are the Fed's fault, caused by its ultra-easy monetary policy, and that the Fed should hike rates soon to get ahead of the inflation.

 

But this view ignores the reality that overall inflation is much lower than food price rises. That's because the factors pushing certain food prices up are transitory, and only relate to specific foods, rather than being a general monetary phenomenon (as inflation became in the late 1970s and early 1980s). For example, the prices of lots of other things like used cars and trucks, piped gas, and fuel oil are currently falling.

 

The point of ultra-easy monetary policy is to incentivize investment. It does this through imposing a cost (negative real interest rates) on sitting on cash, encouraging businesses and entrepreneurs to invest (and consumers to spend) instead of waiting as their purchasing power erodes. Hiking interest rates now would just curb that investment...

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Are we now seeing the Cyclical Low in Grain Prices ? (that was expected in July)

=

CORN and WHEAT - a sharp snapback due now?

 

CORN : 371.75 - a new 3-year Low
CRB - : 298.44
Ratio- : 1.25 / 125%

 

If you look at the Ratio, it has just overshot the bottom of the channel

 

Corn-toCRB_zpsff1147c1.png

 

And if it does not bounce back almost immediately, Corn could shift to a whole new lower level.

Meantime, Wheat is right at the bottom of the channel

 

Wheat : 530.25 - testing the 3-year Low
CRB - : 298.44
Ratio- : 1.78 / 178%

 

A_zps4d438af2.png

=

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An Inflationary set-up is now in place

 

Grain prices have corrected, and that correction may be ending soon

 

DBA / Agri Fund ... update

DBA_zps9390670e.gif

 

Meantime, the U.S. economy is tightening...

 

"DECLINE IN 'SLACK' helps Fed Gauge Recovery - WSJ headline

 

"US factories that were idled during the recession are now humming with activity."

"Office and apartment buildings have less empty space. Unemployment is falling, while wages and benefits are growing slowly."

... Conditions are not quite back to what was normal before the 2008 crisis."

 

"If the gap closes rapidly...

Companies may need to raise prices to cover the costs of adding adding extra shifts and hiring more staff."

"But if slack keeps ebbing slowly, price increases are likely to remain mild."

 

CHARTS there show:

+ Unemployment is down from over 9% to 6%

+ Number of people unemployed has fallen from about 7mn to about 3million

+ Utilization rate is creeping up to near 80%, and 80.8% might be a trigger point

+ Apartment vacancy rate has fallen from just over 8% to about 4% (cut in half)

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... more lines ...

DBA / Agri Fund ... update - Will DBA hold above this nearby Support?

 

DBA_zps4f0478a9.gif

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WEATHER may have a big impact on Crops in the Second half - there are some scary forecasts...

 

"October could be a month of snow and cold weather across the northern Plains and in parts of the northeast Rockies," Pastelok said.

570x578_07291111_screen-shot-2014-07-29-

Snow falls over Sioux Falls, S.D., on Tuesday, Nov. 5, 2013. (Photo/kristielou1515)

While it's not uncommon for this area of the country to receive snowfall in the fall, areas from Bismarck, North Dakota, to Miles City, Montana, will be more vulnerable this fall to an increased number of snowstorms.

Aside from the snow, temperatures are expected to be near or below normal for most of the region with some parts of the southern Rockies experiencing temperatures 2 to 4 F below normal.

"Some areas of the southern Rockies will start out in a hole 2 to 4 degrees below normal and never recover from that," Pastelok said. "The northern Rockies and the Plains will get colder as the season goes on."

As the cold grips areas from the Colorado Rockies to the Sierra, the cold may even expand southward into the central Plains and portions of the Midwest, including Chicago and Milwaukee and Green Bay, Wisconsin.

 

* * *

Bye bye 3.1% GDP growth in Q3 and Q4...

20140811_polar_0.jpg

 

> http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-08-11/prepare-q3-gdp-collapse-here-comes-polar-vortex-20

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EXCERPT re: Inflation - from the latest Video ... about Silver

 

"I have been writing in my Diary about the possibility of Inflation picking up in the second half.

I think it is likely because of the narrowing Gap in capacity utilization in the US, and the fact that the drop in grain prices due to an expected big crop may have run its course. The most bullish situation for Silver would be if prices are moving higher, breaking the Downtrend line, which has been intact since late 2011, and then Moving Above $20, $22, and maybe $25, as inflation is beginning to pick-up. That's what we saw in 2010-2011, and the stage may be set for that once again."

 

Here's WEAT / the etf for for Wheat, versus Corn, DBA, and CRB ... update

 

WEAT-etc_zps46c1dd30.gif

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Future "Inflation" And The Fed's Madness

Wednesday August 13, 2014 12:44 - Steve Saville

 

Prior to 2002 the Fed would tighten monetary policy in reaction to outward signs of rising "price inflation" and loosen monetary policy in reaction to outward signs of falling "price inflation", but beginning in 2002 the Fed became far more biased towards loose monetary policy. This bias is now so great that it seems as if the Fed has become permanently loose.

. . .

The following chart comparing the Fed Funds Rate (FFR) target set by the Fed with the Future Inflation Gauge (FIG) clearly illustrates the change in the Fed's tactics over the past two decades. The Future Inflation Gauge is calculated monthly by the Economic Cycle Research Institute (ECRI) and should really be called the Future CPI Gauge, because it is designed to lead the CPI by about 11 months.

 

steve_20140813.png

 

The chart shows that prior to 2002 the FFR tended to follow the FIG. After the FIG warned of rising "price pressures" the Fed would start hiking the FFR, and after the FIG started signaling reduced upward pressure on the CPI the Fed would start cutting the FFR. (Note: Our chart begins in 1994, but the relationship between the FFR and the FIG that we just described goes back much further.) During 2002-2004, however, the Fed not only didn't hike its targeted interest rate in response to a sharp increase in the FIG, it continued to cut the FFR.

 

The Fed's decision to maintain an ultra-loose stance during 2002-2004 was the fuel for the real estate investment bubble and set the stage for the collapse of 2007-2009.

==

> more-speculative-investor.com: http://www.kitco.com/ind/Saville/2014-08-13-Future-Inflation-And-The-Fed-s-Madness.html

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California Now Suffering Worst Drought Ever, 2014 Hottest Year On Record

Submitted by Tyler Durden on 08/18/2014 - 18:01

 

While most headlines are focused on the devastating drought in California, which by some measures is the worst on record, there is another 'factor' that has exploded to record highs - the heat. As Bloomberg reports, the California heat this year is like nothing ever seen, with records that go back to 1895 and with 70 percent of the state’s pastures rated “very poor to poor,” according to the USDA, things do not appear to be about to get better any time soon as The International Panel on Climate Change warns this "hot weather" is becoming simply "weather."

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DEFLATION : Why my Forecast of higher Precious Metals prices is not happening (yet)

 

CRB - still falling downwards in a channel - may soon bounce off the bottom

 

CRB_zpse942b8d8.png

 

Let's hope it stops there !

GLD / Gold is now in a steeper downwards channel ... update

 

CRB-vsBusy_zpsff75188a.gif

 

My forecast on Gold ("An important Low will be in place before the end of July")

 

...may still work out - barely - because at GLD-xx it is xx% above the end of the year level.

 

What I expected was for Prices (and especially Food prices) would make a low before the end of July.

July/August is when a 25 month cycle in Commodity prices was expected to bottom

 

CRB / Commodity Research Bureau Index ... 5-years-W : 2-years-D : 10-day

 

CRB-cycle_zps92d4997a.gif

 

The CRB cycle does not stand on its own ... update

 

CU-crbetc_zps72c4bc4c.gif

 

WHEAT has been under-pressure, but may be set for an upturn from Friday's low at $5.00.

 

Wheat_zpsf095e894.png

 

These charts suggest that prices are set to Turn up - perhaps during the coming week.

If they fail to turn up in September, Precious metals may be in serious trouble.

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EXCERPT re: Inflation - from the latest Video ... about Silver

"I have been writing in my Diary about the possibility of Inflation picking up in the second half.

I think it is likely because of the narrowing Gap in capacity utilization in the US, and the fact that the drop in grain prices due to an expected big crop may have run its course....

 

Here's WEAT / the etf for for Wheat, versus Corn, DBA, and CRB ... update

 

WEAT-etc_zps46c1dd30.gif

 

The drop in CORN and WEAT did not stop there - as Wheat hit $5.00 on Friday (with WEAT to $1.032) ... update

 

WEATetc_zps8364e48f.gif

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DBA CYCLE : Looking for Cycles in DBA / Agri Fund ... update

 

AA_zps4db50dcd.gif

 

Corn and Wheat should fit in with this too. And Rally if/when DBA rallies

 

CORN.L vs WEAT.L ... update - to end 2014

 

CORN_zps1083f720.gif

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GMO hitting Corn prices?

 

 

=

If we are going to get a 38.2% retracement in CORN and WEAT, it must be near current levels.

 

Looking at the Commodities...

 

 

Hmm. Here's a possible reason for Corn's fall that I hadn't thought about.

 

"China last year sharply curtailed imports of U.S. Corn... " (in Nov. 2013) - WSJ

Why?

Because "after its tests, found some shipments of US corn contained Agrisure Viptera,

a genetic modification developed by Syngenta..."

 

A suit from US agri-giant Cargill "accuses Syngenta of acting irresponsibly by selling the seeds

to US farmers..."

Syngenta of Basel, Switzerland has been selling its seeds in the US since 2011.

GMO Labeling laws in the EU make it difficult to sell the seeds in Europe

 

(the fact that Wheat has fallen almost the same as Corn may make this possible cause seem less important

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Commodity Prices may have bottomed with the Equinox

 

10 DAY Charts : Friday-Close + (110-period MA)

 

CRB / Commodity Research Bureau Index ... update : $280.28 ($279.00) - DBA : $25.32 ($25.25)

CRB-10d_zps94cd6b41.png

 

 

SLV / Silver ... update : $16.90 ($16.93) - GLD: $117.06 ($117.20)

SLV-10d_zps4f56e82f.png

 

GDXJ / Junior Gold share ... update: $34.79 ($35.20) - GDX : $21.98 ($22.25)

 

Some of the Week's Moves:

 

=== Last WEEK's MOVES ==== : on Friday 09/26 alone = :

GLD : 117.09 : - 0.03 % / 117.06 : -0.33 : -0.28% / 4.11 M

GDX : $22.66: - 3.00 % > $21.98 : -0.37 : -1.66% / 28.69 M

AG-S: r4.122 : - 6.11 % / r3,870 /6.127 x 35.274: $17.91 >ag $17.65

SLV : $17.19 : - 1.69 % / $16.90 : +0.07: +0.42% : 4.58 m/ +$0.26

====

Cop'r: $3.090 : - 1.62 % / $3.040 : +0.000 : -0.00% : 29,289

WTI. : $91.77 : + 1.73 % / $93.36 : +0.92 : +1.00% : 247,304

CRB : 279.40 : + 0.31 % / 280.28 : +1.11 : +0.40% : View-Chart

CCI- : 489.29 : + 0.03 % / 489.43 :+2.42 : +0.50% : Vol. = 0

Wheat: 474.0 : + 0.00 % / 474.00 : +0.00 : -0.00% : 25,570

Corn: 331.75 : - 2.64 % / 323.00 : -3.50 : -1.07% : 75,561

Sugar: .1350 : -14.07 % / $.1540 : +0.007 : +4.90% : 30,773

BTC : $401.3: - 2.80 % / $398.80 : -2.12% :

==========

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SLV-toDBA_zpsf71d8a27.png

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CRB plus other inflation measures - may have bottom at/near the end of Qtr-3

 

CRB + others ... update : 10-days : at 10-01-2014: 277.91 - 0,63 : - 0.23% (52wk L: 272.04)

 

CRB-plus_zps0f79704d.gif

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Which way is it for the Commodity Indicies ?

 

UP? (with DBA), or

Not yet? (with CRB)

DBA versus CRB ... update : 1-year / 10-days

DBA-vsCRB_zps129752c6.png

 

Ratio: DBA -to-CRB

DBA-toCRB_zpsc19600ea.png

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