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Gov’t Plans Metro Bus Rapid Transit Systems
By KRIS BAYOS
November 11, 2012

MANILA, Philippines --- The government is planning to set up three bus rapid transit (BRT) systems in Metro Manila instead of rail systems to transport commuters along busy routes in the city.
Quito-BRT.jpg

Transportation Undersecretary for Planning Rene Limcaoco told British investors in an investment forum in Makati City last week that the government is opting to use billions of taxpayers’ money to construct BRTs rather than light rail transit (LRT) systems.

Limcaoco said constructing a kilometer of LRT line will cost $50 million while a kilometer of BRT line will only cost $5 to $7 million, but both will have “the same throughput.”

The BRT system involves the establishment of dedicated lanes to buses whose drivers will have to follow specific times of arrival and departure on particular routes. The BRT system also requires that drivers can only pick up or drop off passengers in certain designated stops.

Former Transportation Secretary Jose de Jesus was quoted before as saying that a BRT that utilizes electric buses or those run by compressed natural gas (CNG) will be set up along C5 to help decongest the traffic along Epifanio de los Santos Avenue (EDSA).

For his part, Former Transportation Secretary Manuel Roxas II earlier disclosed that a BRT is also being planned for Makati City and Northern Metro Manila.

But Limcaoco did not divulge where the planned BRT systems will be operated and what routes it will cover.
. . .
The Metro Cebu BRT system, the first of its kind in the Philippines, is patterned after the BRT systems in Bogota in Colombia, Curitiba in Brazil, Seoul in South Korea and Guangzhou, China.
==
makati_20philippines_20brt_survey_20loca

Makati Central Business District—Transit Feasibility Study

Client: Ayala Land, Inc.; Makati Commercial Estates Association; Fort Bonifacio Development Corporation; and Bases Conversion Development Authorit

( 2 )
DOTC pursues bus rapid transit system
(The Philippine Star) | Updated October 31, 2013

MANILA, Philippines - The Department of Transportation and Communications (DOTC) is pushing through with the establishment of a bus rapid transit (BRT) system to serve passengers in Manila and Quezon City.
. . .
The government is pursuing a BRT system that would initially be introduced in Cebu, pending the go signal from the National Economic and Development Authority. The proposed BRT system would be established along Quezon Avenue, C-5 Road and Ortigas Avenue in Metro Manila.

The BRT projects would be patterned after BRT systems in Bogota in Colombia, Curtilba in Brazil, Seoul in South Korea, and Guangzhou in China.

Conglomerate Ayala Corp. has proposed a BRT system in the central business district in Makati City.
aboutthecity_future_dev_brt2-1.jpg

As early as 2011, Ayala Land Inc. and the Makati Commercial Estate Association Inc proposed a BRT that would pass through Makati CBD and connect two of Metro Manila’s light rail transit services, the LRT Line 1 and the Metro Rail Transit Line 3.

The Ayala Group’s proposed BRT would start at the corner of EDSA and Ayala Ave., traverse Ayala Ave. before turning left at Gil Puyat Ave. and ending at the LRT 1 Buendia station along Taft Ave.
. . .
Abaya also revealed that the DOTC has commissioned Japan International Cooperation Agency (JICA) to explore the possibility of putting up a mass transit subway system to decongest Metro Manila’s major roads, particularly EDSA.

The proposed subway system in the Philippines would be patterned after those in Japan, Hong Kong and the United States, among others.
==
> http://www.philstar.com/business/2013/10/31/1251221/dotc-pursues-bus-rapid-transit-system

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Subway, bus rapid transit in Metro Manila?

 

by daily feeder • March 20, 2014

882af_contrasting-truck-policies-1-20130

 

TRAFFIC. The Japan International Cooperation Agency says traffic will cost the Philippines up to P6 billion a day by 2030. File photo by Romeo Gacad/AFP

MANILA, Philippines – The government has some more ideas on how to solve Metro Manila’s worsening traffic: a subway and a bus rapid transit (BRT) system.

On Thursday, March 20, the Department of Transportation and Communications (DOTC) unveiled major projects that would serve as alternative modes of transportation for commuters.

On top of the list is the P135-billion Mass Transit System, a subway or underground rail system that would extend the existing Metro Rail Transit or MRT Line 3. MRT 3 runs from North Avenue in Quezon City to Taft Avenue in Pasay City.

 

DOTC Assistant Secretary Jaime Feliciano said the 20-kilometer subway would consist of 11 stations: 5 underground, 4 interchanges and 2 elevated. He added it would connect Bonifacio Global City in Taguig, the Makati central business district, and the Mall of Asia area in Pasay.

Feliciano said DOTC would forward the project to the National Economic and Development Authority for approval in the 2nd or 3rd quarter of the year. The government would bid it out in the 2nd quarter of 2015.

DOTC is also looking at putting up a 28-km BRT worth P4.65 billion. The BRT system would run from the Manila City Hall to Fairview in Quezon City, passing through Commonwealth Avenue.

==

> http://s161639508.onlinehome.us/?p=56956

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ALI allots P60 billion for Makati rebranding

 

By Mary Ann LL. Reyes | March 23, 2012

MANILA, Philippines – Ayala Land Inc. (ALI) is spending P60 billion in the next five years for the redevelopment and rebranding of Makati City into a masterplanned and integrated city that will make it a premier regional center in Southeast Asia.

ALI president Antonino Aquino said this will be the company’s biggest investment to date and will involve developing six distinct and complementary districts. These are Ayala Center (cosmopolitan district), Makati North (young and creative), Makati central business district (business), Ayala Triangle Gardens (urban oasis), Makati South (transport hub), and Sta.Ana (Makati’s entertainment district) covering a total of 70 hectares.

 

Aquino explained that with the renewed interest in the Philippines especially among foreign investors, “we want to make sure that we provide them with all the facilities that they will require.”

 

“This is actually the first Public-Private Partnership (PPP),” he added. ALI is aiming to strengthen Makati’s status as the country’s unrivalled capital not just for business, but also for lifestyle, entertainment, and culture.

In addition, ALI is spending about P37 billion for Bonifacio Global City and P12.5 billion for Nuvali in Laguna, both in the next five years.

Bulk of the P60-billion budget will be funded by ALI, partly from the proceeds of a P15-billion bond offering this April, while about five percent will come from MACEA or the Makati Commercial Estate Association.

Also envisioned to support Makati’s redevelopment is the P1-billion bus rapid transit system (BRT) that will link MRT 3, PNR Buendia station and LRT 1. The main proponents of this project are ALI and MACEA, which submitted an unsolicited proposal to develop it to the Department of Transportation and Communications (DOTC).

. . .

AyalaRedevelopment.jpg

 

As part of the project, ALI is completing Phase I of Ayala Center redevelopment which will result in 54,000 square meters of retail space.

Soon to rise is the country’s first ever six-star hotel, Fairmont Hotels and Raffles Residences.

Dy said Phase 2 will involve “pedestrianizing” Ayala Center. “After all, the city of the future is not about cars,” she said.

As for the Makati CBD, Dy revealed that elevated walkways are being constructed through MACEA. The BRT is a main component of the CBD’s redevelopment.

==

> http://www.philstar.com/business/789612/ali-allots-p60-billion-makati-rebranding

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SFGate - ‎25 minutes ago‎






MANILA, Philippines (AP) - The Philippines' most active volcano belched out huge lava fragments that rolled about a kilometer (half a mile) down its slope in an ongoing gentle eruption, prompting authorities to evacuate thousands of villagers, officials said ...

. . .


The Philippine Institute of Volcanology and Seismology has warned that a "hazardous eruption" of Mount Mayon, located in the eastern Philippines, is possible within weeks.

. . .

Mount Mayon, a popular tourist site known for its near-perfect cone, lies in coconut-producing Albay province, about 340 kilometers (210 miles) southeast of Manila.


The provincial disaster operations center reported Wednesday that nearly 24,000 people from villages within an 8-kilometer (5-mile) radius from the crater had been evacuated.


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So,

What do HK buyers want? Spurting volcanoes, thousands evacuated monstrous typhoons, dangerous floods, poor maritime record (a

Nation of islands), a woeful lack of disaster information, a hinterland of shantyesque abodes and a few dangerous Muslim groups knocking around just for good measure. All they need is some alien Disclosure and we are rocking.

Maybe HK buyers just want to ignore all that and focus on the promise

of rental yields?? And infrastructure in the pipeline, excuse the pun.

"Pie" in the sky, perchance?

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Beats Tokyo, I suppose. (Minus the nuclear risk.)

 

But to each his own, I suppose.

Why the aggression?

I haven't been pushing you to buy, just collecting tons of detail,

for both the curious and serious.

If you want to do the same for Japan, I will read with interest

 

==

 

(#2):

Jake,

Every location has its positive and negative points.

The whole of Japan is not exposed to the same risk as Tokyo,

anymore than the whole of Philippines being exposed to the risk issues you have listed.

I posted about the Volcano, because I wanted people to be aware of this risk,

and also know that it was over 200 miles South of Manila, which is a very long distance for lava flow,

if it came to that

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Sorry, wasn't meaning to sound aggressive but on second reading I understand your reaction. Tokyo? Well, I don't know if that's a good idea either. I mentioned HCM city after good reports.

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A Greening of Makati / and Manila ?

(newer article - data thru Q3):

 

Makati cuts down garbage by 47% in 1st 9 months of 2014

GMA News- 28 Nov 2014
Makati City has cut by nearly half the volume of garbage it collected for ...
. . .
City Department of Environmental Services head Danilo Villas said this was due to recycling projects and effective waste segregation in households and business establishments.
The city said that from January to September 2014, the city diverted 1,946.69 cubic meters or 4.68 million kilos of solid waste from the landfill, and cut by 40 percent the number of trips made by garbage collection trucks.
Also, the city's Ordinance No. 2003-095 fines violators P1,000 or jails them for between five and 30 days. It fines erring establishments P5,000 or jails the owner, or even causes the business permit or license to be canceled.
. . .
From January to September, the Baratilyo diverted 114,155 kilos of waste and generated around P771,000 in revenue.
Plastic ban
The city's plastic ban also sustained a high rate of compliance at 94.06 percent, compared to 92 percent rating for the first six months of implementation in 2013.

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Dream of Green City for the Philippines - WSJ

.

In the Clark Freeport Zone, has been proposed a Philippines city of the future, using a new green blueprint, proposed by the Bases Conversion and Development Authority, and its president, Arnel Casanova (a 44 year old Harvard grad.)


They are aiming to avoid the existing result, where "urban centers are polluted, congested, and sprawling out of control." To avoid this, the planned Green City has been carefully masterplanned. They will have: "seven parts open, to three part development." And it will take 25 years to complete the plan.


Already, many foreign co's have been attracted to the CFZ, seeking low cost labor, with good training, and certain tax benefits. There is also the possibility of 100% ownership for foreign firms. They hope to see CFZ one day house four million Filipinos, and produce $36 billion in GDP, 4% of the country's total. But that is decades away.



"Between now and 2030, we will need 100 new cities," says the founder of Manila based architecture firm Palafox Associates. They are said to be trying to replicate the quality of life in Singapore, though this remains a challenge. And one of the objectives is to decongest Manila.


Getting companies to move there is not easy. They want to know that highways, power supply, water and other utilities are in place before committing to move. The former airforce base has the advantage of having some of the key infrastructure already there. So they are getting strong interest from potential Japanese, Korean, and US corporate tenants.


There is a sense of urgency. The development authority wants to get the plan underway while President Aquino is still in power.


The first phase, called Green City, covering 1,321 hectares will cost $1.35 billion to develop from now to 2019.


The farmers are the land that is part of the longer term development plan doubt they will share in the benefits, though the BCDA says, "the big winner will be the Philippines itself."

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Will the Philippines be one of those locations "making their Marque"?

===

Yes. They are ... as the country gets included in the new 32-page Property Special from the Financial Times...


The second line says: ... "Branded residences are redefining nascent property markets from Panama to Phuket,

as well as casting a fresh gleam over eclipsed locations," /

"Wealthy buyers, especially those from Asia, the Middle East, and South America, looking for alternative havens for their cash have packed their bags... In markets where buyers don't know who to trust, branding has a distinct merit..." - and they go on to discuss:

+ Century Property Group's Century Spire - in Makati, Manila - by Daniel Libeskind

... comparing it to:

+ W Apartments in Israel's Jaffa

+ Hyatt Regency in Vietnam

+ Bodrum and Mackra residences in Istanbul, managed by Kempinski

Other new "property hotspots" from Panama to Phuket (yeah: PH is between those two)

=

The points mentioned in the discussion of Century Spire are:

+ A 60-storey mixed use office and residential tower

+ Prices starting at US$220,000 for a 35sqm suite ("one of the highest for this rapidly growing market")

+ Due to open in 2018. "Pre-sales reached 60 percent before launch in May 2014"

+ "Here we had to sell the Philippines... to understand why here, why now"

+ "A project like this elevates a country and contributes to nation building" (yeah. sure)

+ The full concierge package is said to be a big plus: Hotel living, without "worry about maintenance"

==

NOTES - from How To Spend It - FT: 9/27/2014

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URBAN DECAY THREATENS HOT PHILIPPINE ECONOMY

October 12, 2014


1413163916678_652.jpg

Many infrastructure projects take up 3 administrations to finish and with Aquino's term in its last stretch,

an expert says a multi-administration plan is needed to solve infrastructure woes


MANILA, Philippines – Manila's creaking train network means a miserable 3-hour work commute for salesman Gerard Galang – just one example of major infrastructure woes that analysts say threaten to cool the Philippines' red-hot economy.

Peak-hour hell comes in many forms in the city of 12 million people, with commuters experiencing a sweaty, stinky crush on dilapidated trains and giant queues to buy tickets.

"I pity myself and my fellow commuters but I don't have any other option than the train," said Galang, 29, who inhales antiseptic rubbed on to his hands to help negate the stench on the train.


"It gets so crowded our faces get pressed against each other and on doors and windows."

Galang spends 3 hours commuting to work every day, half of which is spent in queues.

For other commuters on buses or in cars, daily gridlock worsens to a complete standstill that can trap people for hours when even small rain storms trigger flash floods.

The Philippine economy has in recent years shed its reputation as one of Asia's laggards, with growth of 6.4% in the second quarter maintaining its status as the region's best performing after China.

The country also recently gained its first investment grade scores from the big three global credit rating agencies.

Infrastructure development, however, hasn't moved at the same pace, and economists warn the creaking systems that are of so much frustration to millions of people will also have a growing impact on economic growth.

"Our facilities are not built for an economy that is growing at seven percent every year," Ronald Mendoza, a senior economist at the Asian Institute of Management, in Manila told Agence France-Presse.

Mendoza said growth could have been faster had it not been for the ageing airports and road networks that turn off foreign investors and tourists, and limit the movement of local trade.

Manila already loses 2.4 billion pesos ($53 million) in potential income daily due to traffic jams, according to a study by the Japan International Cooperation Agency.

Among the other infrastructure problems are power shortages that lead to brownouts, clogged drainage that exacerbate frequent rainy season floods and an Internet network so slow that it sparked a parliamentary enquiry.

. . .


The government will pursue its so-called public-private partnership program. More than 50 projects are being put out to private builders.

Balisacan also said implementing a P2.6-trillion ($58 billion) "dream plan" drafted by the Japan International Cooperation Agency was a top priority.

The agency's plan calls for an expansion of rail and toll road networks to provinces north and south of Manila, spreading economic activity, as well as a subway system for the capital.

Many of the projects cited by the Japanese plan are included in the PPP pipeline, but these have moved painfully slowly due to regulatory delays and court cases between rival bidders.


Fewer than 10 contracts for the public-private partnership program have been awarded during Aquino's first 4 years in office, with no projects yet completed.

And while Aquino's intentions are laudable, there is only a limited amount it can do before his term ends in the middle of 2016, according to Mendoza.

"Many of these projects are perfectly doable, especially the airports and toll roads," Mendoza said.

"What's needed is a multi-administration plan... many of them take up to three administrations to finish."

Philippine leaders are elected to single, 6-year terms, raising continuity problems.

Manila residents, in the meantime, have little choice but to count the personal cost of the urban decay.



==


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Philippines Growth:

That 6.4% (Q2) must be Better than expected - since not long ago, there were reports of Slower Growth in Q1

 

Economy off to a slow start, grows at 5.7% (- in 1st Qtr)
The Philippine economy started 2014 at a slower pace than last year, growing by 5.7% in 1Q 2014, due to the lingering effects
of Typhoon Haiyan. While it was expected that government spending would increase in the period to aid in rehabilitation
efforts, the Philippine Statistical Authority reported a meager 2% growth, significantly lower than 7.7% growth reported in FY
2013. Nonetheless, the country’s growth was the second highest in Southeast Asia, trailing behind Malaysia (+6.2%), but ahead
of Indonesia (+5.2%), Singapore (+5.1%), Vietnam (+5.0%), and Thailand (-0.6%).
The economy benefitted from strong performances in the services and industrial sectors, particularly in mining and
quarrying (+12.8%), real estate, renting, and business activities (+9.2%), and transport, storage and communications (+8.9%).
Exports posted higher growth rates (+12.6%) after last year’s lackluster performance as the manufacturing and business
process outsourcing (BPO) sectors expanded to service increasing demand from overseas.
. . .
Nevertheless, Office Rents were then showing healthy growth
Office rents rise, post highest growth in four quarters
Rental rates in the Makati CBD were considerably higher than in the last quarter due to the lack of available office space.
Premium rents escalated by 4.0% QoQ, costing an average of PHP 1,100 per sq m. Grade A rents recorded a 3.6% QoQ
increase, with an average rent of PHP 818 per sq m. Meanwhile, Grade B rents posted the highest increase at 8.9% QoQ, resulting
in an average rent of PHP 615 per sq m. Colliers predicts that rental rates in the area will appreciate between 6 and 8% over
the next twelve months.
. . .
Capital value growth escalates but continues to lag behind rental rate growth
Capital values of offices in the Makati CBD benefitted from a significant increase in rents this quarter. Average capital values
for Premium buildings grew by 3.3% QoQ, with an average value of PHP 146,280 per sq m. A similar growth rate was recorded
for Grade A buildings at 3.4% QoQ. As such, a typical Grade A building would cost PHP 93,190 per sq m on average. On the
other hand, Grade B capital values amounted to PHP 66,595 per sq m, a 5.0% increase QoQ. Colliers predicts capital values for
all grades in the district to appreciate by 5 - 6% by next year.
==

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Ph. Peso - is now at the Top of the channel ... PHP-update

 

PHP_zps92d7fc4a.gif

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Ayala Land Launches Citygate (the new name for the Makati North development)

September 8, 2014

"Makati remains and will always remain as Ayala Land's top priority..."

 

City-Gate-Groundbreaking_banner-950x400.

Ayala Land, Inc. (ALI) launches City Gate another flagship mixed-use development in the Makati Central Business District. Once completed, City Gate will cover a land area of three blocks with a total of 2.2 hectares.

The first development of City Gate will be ALI’s pioneering stacked mixed-use tower located in the Amorsolo Parking lot. It will vertically combine retail on the first three levels with two office buildings above and finally a Seda Suites Hotel on top of one of the office buildings. The project will have a total of 120k square meters of Gross Floor Area (“GFA”) consisting of 53k square meters of GFA intended for Business Process Outsourcing (BPO) firms; 28k square meters intended for traditional headquarter-type offices; 25k square meters, or 312 keys, for the Seda Suites Hotel and 14k square meters for the mall.

 

One of the key features of City Gate will be the open and green civic space located at the landing point of Makati’s elevated pedestrian walkway. The 2,600 square meter civic space will be a point of convergence where nearby residents, office workers and mall-goers can relax and unwind.

City Gate’s prime address is strategically located along Ayala Avenue making it highly accessible to major thoroughfares such as Sen. Gil Puyat Avenue. Similar to other ALI developments, it will be pedestrian friendly as it will be connected to Ayala Center and the rest of the Central Business District through Makati’s elevated pedestrian walkway.

Ayala Land will be investing a total of P7B in City Gate and is expected to generate 10,000 jobs.

==

> http://www.ayalaland.com.ph/ayala-land-launches-citygate/

 

JAKA Building / October 5th, 2014, #149 :

JAKA Tower was already purchased by Ayala and will be part of the Makati North.
They will construct a triple A Office building soon. ... image below w/o MTR note
JakaMTR_zps1de011d0.jpg
Citigate / October 27th, 2014, 11:30 AM #161
Ayala is strategically developing this area in time for a subway station to be located here.
==
City Gate, on the other hand, is envisioned as the city's gateway and creative hub to cater to the young crowd.

City Gate is located where Ayala Avenue meets Buendia and spans three blocks from the Convergys building to Aegis People Support Center.

The new development will house office buildings, retail space, a 2,600-sqm civic space, and a 312-room Seda Hotel.
The hotel, which will also offer serviced apartments, is expected to open either late 2018 or early 2019 and will create around 180 jobs. It is the first hotel to rise in the area. Aside from Seda, four new hotels are expected to rise in Makati in the next five to six years, including the new Mandarin Hotel that is expected to open in 2020.
==
Ayala Land doubles wager on Makati's future as premier PH city

MANILA – Ayala Land Inc (ALI) is hiking its investment for the redevelopment of Makati City, considered the “crown jewel” of the Ayala Group’s real estate company.

--- SNIPPED ---
This is on top of the P60-billion investment Ayala Land announced in 2012 to develop six nodes in the city comprising the McKinley Exchange, the transport hub; Ayala Center, the lifestyle cosmopolitan hub; Makati Central Business District, the premiere business hub of the country; Ayala Triangle Gardens; the urban oasis; CityGate, the young and creative hub; and Circuit Makati, the entertainment hub.
==

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Citigate is the the right of Center / As it looks now:

Makati-North-1.jpg

 

MakatiNorth-1.png

 

The Makati North area, is the young and creative hub of the city.

This strip is home to universities, museums and theaters, art galleries and studios, BPO offices, and ad agencies. Here, the many forms of creative expression reign supreme, and the vibrant urban culture trickles up to the hip and cool corporate startups and the new generation of educational institutions. In this section, find an artists’ corner, exhibit schedules, and street events.

==

> http://www.skyscrapercity.com/showthread.php?t=1699729&page=3

 

Upcoming projects and city redevelopment plan in Makati by Ayala Land Inc.

 

Oct 7, 2014

Ayala Land is also looking to open its version of the Bonifacio High Street in Circuit Makati, to be called Circuit Lane, by April 2015

 

Ayala - Alveo's Take-ups on various projects as of Aug.2014:

1523887_704547816280207_4942924020632168

- per Presentation : http://ir.ayalaland.com.ph/uploads/files/ALI%20Operating%20Statistics%201H%202014%2011Aug2014.pdf

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Ayala seals Jaka Tower buyout - Manila Standard Today

Sep 28, 2014 -

 

Jaka2_zps4cf3b9e7.jpg

 

Property developer Ayala Land Inc. has closed the deal to acquire the unfinished Jaka Tower, a long-time eyesore in the Makati central business district and owned by the family of Senator Juan Ponce Enrile.

 

Ayala Land president Bernard Vincent Dy told the Manila Standard the company completed the acquisition after conducting a due diligence on the said property.

Dy did not disclose the terms of the deal, including the acquisition cost because of a non-disclosure agreement.

 

Dy said Ayala Land would not tear down the existing Jaka Tower and would just continue erecting the structure, as the tower was still structurally sound despite being abandoned for more than 15 years now.

“Based on our due diligence we don’t need to demolish the existing building,” Dy said.

 

136007-Large.jpg

 

Jaka Tower was originally designed to be a 49-story office skyscraper by architectural firm Hellmuth, Obata and Kassabaum. It was supposed to be the first high-rise project of Enrile’s and then fledging Jaka Property Group.

 

Construction started in 1996 and was scheduled for completion by 1999. However, the project was halted when construction reached the 21st floor amid the 1997 Asian financial crisis, which affected many other property developers.

 

1168471_594401420686550_1245586324_n.jpg

 

Dy said the newly-acquired property would be a part of the P65-billion redevelopment plan of Ayala Land within the Makati CBD.

Ayala Land said it was redeveloping three huge blocks of property at the corner of Ayala Avenue and Buendia Avenue, to be called City Gate.

The first development of City Gate will be Ayala Land’s pioneering stacked mixed-use tower located at the Amorsolo Parking lot.

==

> http://manilastandardtoday.com/2014/09/28/ayala-seals-jaka-tower-buyout/

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A Map showing a Subway proposal (red markers seem to be stations)

 

"There is only 1 subway proposal under PPP. Map of the potential subway line is shown below.

This is the subway JICA is currently completing feasiblity studies on."

 

54zt3m.jpg

 

> MORE: http://www.skyscrapercity.com/showthread.php?t=1443736&page=35

 

Close-up of Area surrounding City Gate

ManilaSubway_zps67cac406.jpg

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Comment regarding the proposed MTR from Manila:

 

"...still not final because the government are still in talks with Ayala..."

 

Reaction: I suppose the Philippines govt will want Ayala to pay what it thinks is "their fair share" of the capital cost.

Many Ayala properties and projects would benefit from a new underground on the proposed route.

 

Getting the purchase of the Jaka Building complete, makes this (virtually) inevitable now, I suppose.

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The following prediction of a "sustained Rally" may be right...

Or this could be just "topping Talk" which will bring in the last buying surge

 

Resurgent Dollar set for sustained Rally (4-yr High) - says FT (pg. 22, back)

 

But faster economic growth in China will slow losses for metals and energy prices

 

NOTES: (Sure, it could happen. But where are the weak points?)

======

+ Central banks, pumping out more non-USD currency have reignited the Dollar rally

+ There are implications for commodity prices, from the growing monetary stimulus

+ Yen is the "favored currency" for carry trades

+ Other CB's may follow Japan; USD to benefit

+ Currency trends tend to be persistent, longer than the 4 month's seen so far

+ Stronger USD and tighter Fed may hit equities

 

 

Meanwhile...

I am impressed by things like the strength of the Philippines economy - and how they have brought down Debt

.

Falling oil prices: A boon to the Philippine economy

Philippine Star-2 Nov 2014
Oil prices have dropped by more than 25 percent since June on the back of weak global oil demand, a supply glut from North America and a ...
.
philippines-government-debt-to-gdp.png?s
.
This could help the Peso, relative to the USD
.
USDPHP / USD in Phil.Pesos ... 2-yrs : 5-yrs : All-Data / 10-d
PHP_zps45a6d024.png
... But while the govt. has controlled its debt, Philippines corporations are borrowing more;
Debt-Hungry Philippine Firms Exposed as Markets Falter
Bloomberg-16 Oct 2014
Philippine corporate exposure to foreign debt climbed to 26 percent of total
... expansion in the Philippines to remain strong in 2014 and 2015.

.

Debt spree exposes Philippine firms as world outlook dims

Chicago Tribune-17 Oct 2014
By year-end, Philippine companies would take as long as a record four years to repay debt using operating earnings,
said Xavier Jean, the ...

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Q3-Colliers data, "the Knowledge", just out:

 

(Will Makati's outperformance continue thanks to City Gate, etc. in the Qtrs to come?)

 

PRICE SUMMARY - at Q3-2014 vs Q4-2012, 2013:
3 BEDROOM CONDOMINIUM UNIT
------------------ : -3Q-2013- : %frm.'13: -4Q-2012- : -4Q-2013- : % increase
Location ------ : PHP / SQm: from 2013: PHP / SQm : PHP / SQm : yr-on-yr
MAKATI -CBD : p- 142,750: + 05.81 % : p- 117,950 : p- 134,908 : +14.38%
ROCKWELL-- : p- 146,750: + 05.75 % : p- 125,720 : p- 138,768 : +10.38%
BGC/ TheFort : p- 139,000: + 05.49 % : p- 118,690 : p- 131,760 : +11.01%
===
Capital values appreciate faster than rents Residential capital value growth in premium locations
accelerated due to rising land values. Values in the Makati CBD range between PHP98,000 and 187,500 per sq m, appreciating
by 3.4% from the previous quarter. Rockwell experienced a similar increase, at 3.6% to PHP146,500 per sq m. Average
values in Fort Bonifacio amounted to PHP139,000 per sq m, growing by 3.0% QoQ. Colliers expects capital values to grow
faster than rents, between 5.0 and 7.0%, by next year as the current land values will cause adjustments in the values.
===
Manufacturing, real estate lead economic expansion
The Philippine economy relied on a strong manufacturing sector to grow by 6.4% YoY in 2Q 2014. The real estate sector
was also identified as a vital contributor, expanding by 8.9%, while exports sustained its double digit growth for the second
straight quarter. In addition, domestic consumption remained strong despite higher inflation rates. To avoid any overheating,
the government, through the Central Bank, has identified key measures to be implemented in the next six to nine months.
Office
Five office buildings were delivered this quarter, 80% of which are located in Quezon City. By year end, an additional 200,000
sq m of office space will be delivered, meeting the forecast supply of 480,000 sq m. Real estate developers are optimistic,
with close to 1 million sq m of office space slated for delivery in the next two years. Meanwhile, overall vacancy in the Makati
CBD declined due to sustained strong office demand. As a result, office rents across all grades increased 2 - 3% this quarter.
Residential
Two new projects were completed in 3Q2014, adding in 1,297 units to inventory. An average of 9,000 units will be delivered
in the next three years, with the majority of the units located in the Makati CBD, Fort Bonifacio, and Ortigas Center. Residential
vacancy in the Makati CBD decreased drastically due to strong take-up across all grades and unit types. Despite high
occupancy in the area, rental rates grew modestly in the period.
==

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Makati, BGC, Ortigas land values still seen accelerating ... up to 8.5%

(The Philippine Star) November 9, 2014

 

MANILA, Philippines - Land values in business districts such as Makati, Fort Bonifacio and Ortigas are estimated to grow by 6.5 to 8.5 percent in the next 12 months even after reaching a 17-year high from recent transactions amid strong demand from investors and developers, real estate services firm Colliers International Philippines said.

"Property developer Ayala Land, Inc. also recently bought the JAKA Tower in Makati for an undisclosed amount,

the price range of which is estimated to be between P500,000 and P560,000 per sq.m." SSC

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Some Mixed Reports - it's not all upside

 

The “daytime population” of Makati is over four million people versus its “nighttime population” of just over 500,000 live-in residents. Those high-rise office buildings and malls in the business and commercial areas are densest with the daytime population going to work, eating, recreating and eking out their workaday life in Makati. Many still commute back to their residences outside of Makati in the evening.

Vertical housing (condominiums) has been practically mass-produced to answer to the demand for residential communities to be built closer to work and recreation areas. Developers and realtors have also whetted demand for other buyers and investors with disposable income, who would like to live “New York style” in the glamor and efficiency of a self-contained condo unit. A third group of condo buyers would be those who foresee rental or resale income from investing in condo units at a rate of return higher than financial products and other investments in the prevailing low-interest economic climate.

The Housing and Land Use Regulatory Board (HLURB) reveals that the condominium building craze started in 2001 with 34 projects, all in the National Capital Region (NCR or Metro Manila), building up to over 1,060 various developments having been issued licenses to sell as of 2013. These developments (construction projects) have supplied more than 500,000 units from 2001 to 2013 in Metro Manila alone. At an estimated average of two persons occupying a condo unit, does that mean that about a million people in Metro Manila are now enjoying the advantages of condo living?

The majority of Metro Manila condos are in Makati -- about 80%, according to the HLURB -- judging only on licenses to sell issued. But by ocular experience, one can really feel and know that the humongous condo complexes rising and already built are almost brusquely nudging each other for positioning in busy Makati. (Second most condos built or being built is in Taguig, in the Fort Bonifacio parcel.) Whether high-end or medium-end, Makati condos are more in demand than condos in Quezon City or Pasig, for example, and this reflects in the pricing for these, in preselling, selling, reselling and rental.

From what started as P40,000 per square meter for initial sales of Makati condos in 2001, the price per square meter of new condos in Makati now range from P150,000* to about P220,000. While classification as to high-end or medium-end used to depend much on the density or number of units per floor and the size of cuts (studio, one-, two- or three-bedroom) in the earlier years, now the developers simply hype up the offered amenities and other come-ons, offering unbelievably easy instalment schemes at little or no interest.

. . .

Real estate groups and brokers warned that “developers are now prepared to push their pricing for development land by 20%-30% over previous highs.” In Fort Bonifacio, a 1,600-sqm site was sold in September at a record P500,000 per sqm, 80% higher than the previous government-owned site sold in the area.

To cover their costs, particularly the rising land costs, developers would have to raise their selling prices by 21% for office space and 30% more for apartments (residential units), one big broker said. At the increased acquisition costs, buyers and investors must be ready to suffer the tucked-in increases in developer costs, and worry that the expected yields from resale or rentals will shrink even lower.

 

Rentals on Makati condos are advertised at about P1,000 per sqm per month for a 20-sqm studio up to cuts of below 50 sqm. For condo units of more than 50 sqm, the rental rates would be around P800 per sqm per month. However, for the really premium developments (all two- and three-bedroom units, no studios), the rental price would be around P1,200 per sqm per month. Per annum yields on condo rentals (net of costs) are somewhere around 7% per annum, according to the group of realtors and brokers. But “investors must be ready to accept yields closer to 5%.”

==

MORE: http://www.bworldonline.com/content.php?section=Opinion&title=makati-condo-bubble&id=97570

 

" 500,000 units from 2001 to 2013 in Metro Manila"

Yes. At the same time, Office space and jobs in the area are being added, as the area gentries,

and the Philippines economy and incomes grow.

 

*Some Maths:

I dispute her: P40K > P150K +275%. As Colliers shows : 62K recession low > 142.75K: +130%,

and the prior high in 1998 was P98,000.

Est. Rent : P1,000 psmpm x 12 = 12,000 / Price: 150,000 = 8% Gross Yield quick estimate

Colliers latest:

3Q /2014 : P142,750/ SM : +3.38% QonQ : +08.10% Yr.onYr:

> source: http://www.colliers.com/-/media/Files/Marketing%20Reports/Knowledge_Q3_2014.pdf

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