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DATA : Peso // Makati Property Price Data, News & Comments

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OLD DATA for back-up
========

DATA : Peso // Makati Property Price Data, News & Commentary

LINKs --> : MAKATI PRIME Landing page / Chat : Tips : Rent : Is it a Bubble? :

The Philippines has one of the fastest growing economies in the world, rivaling China with its growth rate, 6-7% p.a.

It is the 4th largest English-speaking country.

DDVQx02.jpg

This thread has a commentary, data, news, charts and maps. ... PB

Stocks, all data : PSEI : PSE : Both / ali : smph : agi : meg : cpg : shng :

Currency Rates : usdPHP ... All Data : 2-years : 6-mos : 10-days / DXY : CNY vsPHP : MYRvsPHP : old : PB :

OcxZUyr.gif

/ The following data was derived primarily from the fine Colliers Qtrly report, "the knowledge" /

:: RENTING ideas, suggestions :: a special thread for Renting in Makati

RENTS ---: Makati, Bonifacio, Rockwell
Qtr /Year : CapVal.: Yield%: MMidpt: QonQtr : YonYr / Lo - Makati - H / L-Bonfacio-H / L-Rockwell- H /
3Q /2012 : 116.0k : 7.32% : 0,708 : +1.2E% : +5.0E% / 0,525 - 0,890 / 0,568 - 0,850 / 0,677 - 0,950 :
4Q /2012 : 118.0k : 7.32% : 0,720 : +1.69% : +7.0E% / 0,525 - 0,915 / 0,570 - 0,865 / 0,686 - 0,912 :
1Q /2013 : 123.8k : 7.12% : 0,735 : +2.08% : +8.0E% / 0,540 - 0,930 / 0,580 - 0,890 / 0,700 - 0,930 :
2Q /2013 : 128.7k : 7.27% : 0,780 : +6.12% : +11 E% / 0,545 - 1,015 / 0,590 -0,940e/ 0,705 -0,970e:
3Q /2013 : 132.0k : 7.27% : 0,800 : +2.56% : +13.0% / 0,550 - 1,050 / 0,600 - 0,990 / 0,710 - 1,000 :
4Q /2013 : 134.9k : 7.16% : 0,805 : +0.63% : +11.8% / 0,550 - 1,060 / 0,610 - 1,010 / 0,720 - 1,020 :
1Q /2014 : 136.5k : 7.12% : 0,810 : +0.62% : +10.2% / 0,555 - 1,065 / 0,610 - 1,020 / 0,725 - 1,025 :
2Q /2014 : 138.1k : 7.13% : 0,820 : +1.23% : +5.13% / 0,560 - 1,080 / 0,625 - 1,025 / 0,740 - 1,030 :
3Q /2014 : 142.8k : 6.97% : 0,830 : +1.22% : +3.75% / 0,570 - 1,090 / 0,630 - 1,035 / 0,790 - 1,090 :
4Q /2014 : 144.5k : 6.96% : 0,838 : +0.96% : +4.10% / 0,575 - 1,100 / 0,640 - 1,045 / 0,750 - 1,055 :
1Q /2015 : 147.4k : 6.90% : 0,848 : +1.19% : +4.69% / 0,578 - 1,118 / 0,660 - 1,050 / 0,755 - 1,080 :
2Q /2015 : 149.0k : 6.94% : 0,862 : +1.65% : +5.12% / 0,588 - 1,135 / 0,672 - 1,070 / 0,769 - 1,099 :
3Q /2015 : 151.0k : 6.95% : 0,875 : +1.51% : +5.42% / 0,595 - 1,155 / 0,680 - 1,083 / 0,804 - 1,098 :
4Q /2015 : 151.3k : 7.02% : 0,883 : +0.91% : +5.37% / 0,600 - 1,166 / 0,688 - 1,094 / 0,814 - 1,094 :
1Q /2016 : 152.0k : 6.82% : 0,865 : - 2.04% : +2.00% / 0,590 - 1,140 /
2Q /2016 : 147.6k : 6.95% : 0,855 : - 1.16 %: - 0.11% / 0,580 - 1,130 / 0,660 - 1,050 / 0,800 - 1,100 :
3Q /2016 : 146.5k : 6.88% : 0,840 : - 1.75 %: - 4.00% / 0,570 - 1,110 / 0,655 - 1,040 / 0,790 - 1,080 :
4Q /2016 : 150.6k : 6.67% : 0,837 : - 0.36 %: - 5.21% / 0,560 - 1,100 / 0,640 - 1,020 / 0,780 - 1,070 :
1Q /2017 : 154.6k : 6.39% : 0,823 : - 1.67 %: - 4.86% / 0,560 - 1,080 / 0,630 - 1,000 / 0,760 - 1,050 :
2Q /2017 : 161.5k : 6.08% : 0,818 : - 0.71 %: - 4.33% / 0,540 - 1,080 / 0,610 - 1,010 / 0,760 - 1,010 :
3Q /2017 : 167.0k : 5.81% : 0,809 : - 1.10 %: - 3.70% / 0,530 - 1,080 / 0,600 - 1,000 / 0,730 - 1,040 :
4Q /2017 : 174.7k : 5.50%: 0,800 : - 1.11 %: - 4.42% / 0,530 - 1,070 / 0,620 - 1,000 / 0,730 - 1,020 :
Qtr /Year : Mak-Mid.Yield : Rent : QonQtr : YronYr / Lo- Makati-H / L-Bonfacio-H / L-Rockw- H /
========

Makati Yield 3br? : 2Q/ 2017 : 0,818 x12 = 9,816 / 161,500: 6.08% Yield (prev. 6.39%)

Note: Compare with the Yield on a Office: Premier : ??? (9.14%) : Grade-A : ??? (10.03%)
> Office yield : thread
 

Makati Residential Stock and Growth Rates - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - : Historical Prices - PHP per Sq. M. - - - - :

supply.png?w=583&h=429 : philippines-luxury-3-bedroon-condominium

60lzqLA.jpg : philippines-house-prices-1.gif : philippines-bank-average-lendng-rates.gi

Colliers-Insight ... PB :

Historical Record - : Three Top CBD's per Colliers Int'l

PROPERTY : 3BR - Capital Values : ( per Sq. Meter )
Colliers
Qtr /Yr. : Mak-Mid. QonQtr : YronYr / Low - Makati - H / Low -Bonfacio- H / Low -Rockwell- H /
4Q /2007 : 095,000 : +1.0E% : +15.2% : 85,000 - 105,000 :
1Q /2008 : 096,575 : +1.66% : +12.3% : 85,000 - 108,150 :
2Q /2008 : 101,650 : +5.25% : +15.5% : 90,950 - 112,350 > went up too fast ? needed to correct ?
3Q /2008 : 101,958 : +0.30% : +12.1% : 91,205 - 112,665 :
4Q /2008 : 101,750 : -0.20% : + 7.11% :
1Q /2009 : 101,000 : -0.74% : + 4.58% : 90,000 - 112,000 :
2Q /2009 : 101,002 : +0.00% : - 0.64% : 90,000 - 112,000 :
3Q /2009 : P99,706 : -1.28% : - 2.21% :
4Q /2009 : P99,191 : -0.52% : - 2.51% :
1Q /2010 : P99,192 : +0.00% : - 1.79% :
2Q /2010 : 100,100 : +0.92% : - 0.89% :
3Q /2010 : 101,627 : +1.52% : + 1.93% :: 70,827 - 132,426 : 085,346 - 120,231 : 092,000 - 119,768 :
4Q /2010 : 102,289 : +0.65% : + 3.12% :: 70,827 - 133,750 : 085,943 - 121,000 : 092,000 - 121,000 :
1Q /2011 : 103,244 : +0.93% : + 4.09% :: 71,535 - 134,954 : 086,287 - 121,557 : 092,000 - 122,500 :
2Q /2011 : 106,067 : +2.73% : + 5.96% :: 71,621 - 140,512 : 087,889 - 123,866 : 092,956 - 125,337 :
3Q /2011 : 107,169 : +1.04% : + 5.45% :: 73,638 - 140,699 : 088,514 - 125,724 : 092,920 - 131,074 :
4Q /2011 : 109,202 : +1.91% : + 6.77% :: 74,230 - 144,200 : 089,212 - 127,533 : 094,069 - 133,041 :
1Q /2012 : 114,061 : +4.44% : +10.48% : 78,000 - 150,121 : 090.688 - 135,125 : 098,421 - 140,551 :
2Q /2012 : 115,429 : +1.20% : + 8.83% :: 78,936 - 151,922 : 090,658 - 136,746 : 098,913 - 141,816 :
3Q /2012 : 116,025 : +0.52% : + 8.26% :: 78,950 - 153,100 : 091,290 - 141,390 : 099,900 - 147,490 :
4Q /2012 : 117,950 : +1.66% : + 8.01% :: 80,050 - 155,850 : 091,750 - 145,630 : 101,000 - 150,440 :
1Q /2013 : 123,760 : +4.93% : + 8.50% :: 81,650 - 165,870 : 093,585 - 149,415 : 103,020 - 153,300 :
2Q /2013 : 128,730 : +4.02% : +11.52% : 87,365 - 170,095 : 098,265 - 156,885 : 106,110 - 159,430 :
3Q /2013 : 132,048 : +2.58% : +13.81% : 88,895 - 175,200 : 100,720 - 159,240 : 107,175 - 162,300 :
4Q /2013 : 134,908 : +2.17% : +14.38% : 90,675 - 179,140 : 102,230 - 161,290 : 109,315 - 168,220 :

1Q /2014 : 136,533 : +1.20% : +10.32% : 91,715 - 181,350 : 103,200 - 163,150 : 110,240 - 175,685 :
2Q /2014 : 138,083 : +1.13% : + 7.27% :: 93,000 - 183,165 : 104,400 - 165,465 : 111,345 - 172,070 :
3Q /2014 : 142,750 : +3.38% : + 8.10% :: 98,000 - 187,500 : 108,000 - 170,000 : 115,000 - 178,500 :
4Q /2014 : 144,500 : +1.23% : + 7.11% : 100,000- 189,000 : 110,000 - 180,000 : 117,000 - 180,000 :
1Q /2015 : 147,350 : +1.97% : + 7.92% : 102,500- 192,200 : 113,000 - 179,500 : 119,000 - 189,000 :
2Q /2015 : 149,000 : +1.11% : + 7.91% : 104,000- 194,000 : 114,000 - 182,000 : 119,000 - 198,000 :
3Q /2015 : 151,000 : +1.34% : + 5.78% : 106,000- 196,000 : 114,000 - 185,000 : 121,000 - 201,000 :
4Q /2015 : 151,300 : +0.20% : + 4.71 % : 106,400- 196,200 : 114,700 - 185,400 : 121,700 - 202,100 :
1Q /2016 : 152,000 : +0.46% : + 3.16 % : 107,000- 197,000 : 115,000 - 185,000 : 121,700 - 202,100 :
2Q /2016 : 147,575 : - 2.91% : - 0.96 % : 103,770- 191,380 : 111,760 - 180.760 : 120,390 - 200,040 :
3Q /2016 : 146,485 : - 0.74% : - 2.99 % : 103,010- 189,960 : 109.790 - 177,580 : 119,090 - 197,870 :
4Q /2016 : 150,600e +2.81% : - 0.00 % : 109,000- 192.2K* : 110,500 - 226,400 : 188,400 - 207,700 : *274.6k x70% adj.
4Q /2016 : 150,600e +2.81% : - 0.00 % : 109,000- 192.2K* : 110,500 - 226,400 : 188,400 - 207,700 : *274.6k x70% adj.
1Q /2017 : 154,600e +2.65% : + 1.71 % : P97,400- 192.2K* : 110,500 - 235,500 : 186,500 - 218,600 : *274.5k x77% adj. >post#301
2Q /2017 : 161,500e +4.46% : + 9.44 % : 108,900- 214.1K* : 110,500 - 236,200 : 188,800 - 226,500 : *274.5k x78% adj. >post#323
3Q /2017 : 167,000e +3.41% : + 14.0 % : 111,600- 222.3k* : 111,600 - 238,600 : 197,200 - 236,600 : *277.9k x80% adj. >post#351
4Q /2017 : 174,700e +4.61% : + 16.0 % : 111,700- 237.7k* : 112,000 - 239,400 : 198,000 - 244,300 : *286.4k x83% adj.
Qtr / Yr. : Mak-Mid. QonQtr : Yr.onYr. / Low - Makati - H / Low -Bonfacio- H / Low -Rockwell- H /

3FXQX0s.png: Adjustment starts Q4-2016 : Q1 : PB :

===============
Prior Qtr's Charts- :: q4-15 / q1, q2, q3, Rept: q3, q4-16 / q1, q2, q3, q4-17 /

LINK to this thread- :: http://tinyurl.com/PHP-Makati : Makati : BGC/Taguig : QC : completed : insight :

RENTING in Makati :: http://www.greenenergyinvestors.com/index.php?showtopic=20162

GDP / Inflation databank, post#257-8: http://www.greenenergyinvestors.com/index.php?showtopic=18811&page=13

(More LINKS, post#2)

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CPI DATABANK

> source: https://tradingeconomics.com/philippines/consumer-price-index-cpi

Mo. -CPI- : -CPI- +chg% :
==: 2017 : -2018 +yoy% :
J : 109.6 > 114.1 +4.0% :
F : 110.1 > 115.0 +4.4% :
M: 110.7 > 115.5 +4.3% :
A : 111.1 > 116.1 +4.5% :
M: 111.0 > 116.1 +4.6% :
J : 111.0 :
Jl: 111.1 :
A : 111.4 :
S : 112.1 :
O : 112.3 :
N : 112.8 :
D : 113.1 :
========
>> https://tradingeconomics.com/philippines/consumer-price-index-cpi
===

FALLING YIELDS - again in Q3-2017. How savvy are the buyers?

Since the recent peak Yields of 7.02% - in Q4-2015 when Rent's peaked at P883 psm.
Rents have fallen by 8.4% to just P 809 per sqm.

Nevertheless, Condo Buyers ignored the trend in Rents, and kept bidding up the prices of new condos.
In the same period, the average Condo in the index was up from P151.2k to P167k psm, a rise of 10.4%.
Consequently, Yields have fallen even more than Rents.
Gross Yields (on 3BR units) are down to just 5.81% - that's a 17.2% drop - on a 8% drop in Rents

Meantime, prices keep rising, and interest rates are stable-to-rising.

Who is propping this market up?

Probably potential own-use / family-use buyers from the OFW,

and Mainland Chinese who are buying (somewhat naively?) for safe-haven reasons.

Here's Colliers own comment:

"Modest decline in rents as prices still on a plateau The additional supply and rising vacancy have pushed rents down as the rental market has become more competitive. Options within and outside CBDs have increased and have provided alternatives to tenants in the market. Among the three top locations for prime condominium units, Makati showed the biggest decline in rents, albeit still a modest 1.0% decline quarter on quarter to P809 per sq m per month (1.50 USD per sq ft per month). It was followed by Rockwell which declined by 0.50% to P886 per sq m per month (1.65 per sq ft per month) and Fort Bonifacio by 0.12% to P811 per sq m per month (1.51 per sq ft per month).

Among the three locations, Rockwell Center commands the most expensive rent. Understandably, the contained environment of Rockwell Center has largely kept the consistency of products within the area, softening rental impact through time. Meanwhile, the sizeable stock in both Makati and Fort Bonifacio has tightened competition among various developments.
The secondary market prices in major CBDs continued plateauing. Although still in an uptrend, the velocity of capital appreciation slowed down in recent quarters"

> http://www.colliers.com/-/media/files/marketing%20reports/3q2017_colliers_quarterly_residential_final.pdf

COMPARE:
=======

4Q /2015 : 151.0k : 7.02% : 0,883 : +0.91% : +5.37% / 0,600 - 1,166 / 0,688 - 1,094 / 0,814 - 1,094:
1Q /2016 : 152.0k : 6.82% : 0,865 : - 2.04% : +2.00% / 0,590 - 1,140 /
2Q /2016 : 147.6k : 6.95% : 0,855 : - 1.16 %: - 0.11% / 0,580 - 1,130 / 0,660 - 1,050 / 0,800 - 1,100 :
3Q /2016 : 146.5k : 6.88% : 0,840 : - 1.75 %: - 4.00% / 0,570 - 1,110 / 0,655 - 1,040 / 0,790 - 1,080 :
4Q /2016 : 150.6k : 6.67% : 0,837 : - 0.36 %: - 5.21% / 0,560 - 1,100 / 0,640 - 1,020 / 0,780 - 1,070 :
1Q /2017 : 154.6k : 6.39% : 0,823 : - 1.67 %: - 4.86% / 0,560 - 1,080 / 0,630 - 1,000 / 0,760 - 1,050 :
2Q /2017 : 161.5k : 6.08% : 0,818 : - 0.71 %: - 4.33% / 0,540 - 1,080 / 0,610 - 1,010 / 0,760 - 1,010 :
3Q /2017 : 167.0k : 5.81% : 0,809 : - 1.10 %: - 3.70% / 0,530 - 1,080 / 0,600 - 1,000 / 0,730 - 1,040 :
Qtr /Year. : Mak-Mid. Yield : Rent : QonQtr : YronYr / Lo - Makati - H / L-Bonfacio-H / L-Rockw- H /

VACANCIES have risen into the mid-teens in many Manila locations (such as 14.1% in Makati & 15.3% in BGC;
they are lower at 11.5% in Rockwell, and lower still, at just 6.4% in Ortigas), but a slowing of Condo completions in 2018, may turn these figures around and bring them lower in 2018 and 2019, in Makati at least.
Colliers still expects Rents to continue to fall "for years", but the falls may be highest in the 3BR and above size range. I am seeing signs of stable and even rising rents in the Studio size range. As an example of this, Avida has NO STUDIOS available for rent in Makati, as I was writing this.

A strong positive thing is that Household formations in PH are continuing to rise faster than Condo completions of Metro Manila as a whole.
The ability of developers to sell Condos at higher and higher prices, suggests that demand is still healthy, buyers are not put off by lower yields (at least not yet!)

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It's out. 4Q 2017 Residential report from Colliers.

http://www.colliers.com/-/media/files/marketing reports/4q2017_colliers_quarterly_residential.pdf

Rents down. Prices up. They still forecast Makati 3Br condo price to increase by 13,8pct from 4Q2017 to 4Q2018. 

The lower band for 3Br is PHP110,300 per square meter. When I checked the ads on OLX.ph I found the San Lorenzo Place units -- and there are 3 of them - offered for around PHP110,300 per square meter (8,5M instead of the 11,5M market price).

And these are just asking prices for the secondary market. Real prices will probably be lower.

(Maybe that is the way these indexes are calculated?? -- just by looking at olx.ph and guessing the market...)

https://www.olx.ph/item/last-2br-unit-san-lorenzo-place-makati-city-air-jazz-rise-residences-ID8gwPR.html?h=622437d62d&utm_source=Opt_Var_1&utm_campaign=VDay2018_B

On the other hand, just today a newer ad was posted and for the first time ever, a 38 square meter San Lorenzo Place unit was offered by an Empire East seller for 6,5Million which amounts to around PHP172,000 per square meter. This is a new record.

(there is an annual price increase for most EmpEast projects this february 16th)

Just like in Hong Kong, my impression is that the smaller units are rising faster in value than the bigger units, because there s more people who can afford smaller properties and fewer who can afford bigger properties.

All units 1Br and studios in the Ellis were sold already, the only thing left is 2BR, 2Br link and 1BR executive i have been told.

http://systemisbroken.blogspot.com/2018/01/the-relentless-climb-of-hong-kong-real.html

(In HK it is the smaller sized units which are breaking all records)

(interestingly in his latest insight the writer says there is dramatic underinvestment in housing in USA, causing future price rises over there. IN MNL there is way too much investment)

The same is also true for the Bay Area where SMDC raised the price for most 27square meter Breeze units from 5M to 6M.

(it is quite unusual that prices are still rising despite this development completed in 2Q-3Q 2017)

(usually when buildings are completed prices fall but for Breeze they are still rising).

And the newer Megaworld development in the Bay Area has an average square meter price of PHP250,000 according to Rob Luats facebook page affirming my conviction that developers have not built enough units to dampen speculative -  false? - demand. They really need to build something like 15,000 to 20,000 units a year to cool this, but they are now waiting for the secondary market prices to pick up.

The question is whether the decline in the value of the PHP against most currencies, as well as the inflation rate which is running at 4pct now, is going to be a bigger driver in future pricing than a possible stock market crash, which might become increasing likely in the months ahead, and we will have to see which forces are bigger. But any steep fall will no doubt have severe psychological impacts

in the red hot PH real estate market. 

PH will probably muddle thru this nicely. But 13pct price appreciation is just too optimistic in my opinion.

(Pssst. 13pct for Makati is too much. But not for Breeze.  I Expect the SMDC Official price of 27sqm Breeze units to reach 7M by the end of 2018. Still hopefull we can reach 10M by early 2020.)

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RISING COSTS will (eventually) lift all the boats

Interesting, ECB.

"

"Rents down. Prices up. They still forecast Makati 3Br condo price to increase by 13,8pct from 4Q2017 to 4Q2018. 

The lower band for 3Br is PHP110,300 per square meter. When I checked the ads on OLX.ph I found the San Lorenzo

Place units -- and there are 3 of them - offered for around PHP110,300 per square meter (8,5M instead of the 11,5M market price)."

The square units on the end, with the extra window, are the really nice ones, imho. (2BR or 3BR?  I forget)

Location is great, because of the direct connection to Magallanes station on the MRT.

Chino Roces is the next Condo-building hotspot.

Avida will launch their Wyeth Project in the second half

0If5Ah5.jpg

Studios there (maybe 22sqm) are likely to be: "P 4million ... or higher." I was told by a senior sales mgr. at Avida  yesterday

(If they sell at P2 million, they would only just recover the B4 billion Land cost... not the rest of construction costs.)

>

 

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M-Bay area - the hyper-spot of PH property bubble?:

breeze-smdc-manila-condo.jpg

""The same is also true for the Bay Area where SMDC raised the price for most 27square meter Breeze units from 5M to 6M.

(it is quite unusual that prices are still rising despite this development completed in 2Q-3Q 2017)"

breezeresidencesmanila___Location.jpeg

I reckon that tens of thousands of Mainland Chinese visitors stay in  Manila Bay to be near the casinos.

Chinese like looking at and buying property,  So they visit the nearby showrooms, "like lambs to the slaughter" maybe.

It should be easy to SELL the properties to these types of buyers, (or to their PH based friends or relatives who buy on their behalf)

The CRUNCH time, will come when they try to Rent them - Who will rent there? And at what yield?

There is a really huge supply coming* at M-Bay, and at probably the main tenants are going to be short term lets to tourists.

Watch this space, because I reckon it will eventually end in tears.

This is my personal opinion, and I could be wrong, but I think the Rental rates are the thing to watch in M-Bay.

I have friends who live in Burgos, who tell me after 3-4 visits many Chinese visitors wind up in Burgos, or Manila,

because they get bored in Manila Bay.  How many (losing?) visits to the casino do you want before you want different fun?

=====

*Manila-Bay Area Supply, is slated to rise by about 12,000 units in 2018 alone - that is a doubling in just one year!

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HOT TOURISM (& Mainland Chinese buying) - may be sustaining the Property market

(However, NAIA is operating at maybe 90% of capacity - so Clark needs development.)

4pUIwvv.png

"Foreign arrivals to the Philippines reached a record-high in 2017 and this sustained hotel occupancy rates across Metro Manila. We believe that continued arrivals from the country’s major sources of visitors coupled with the improvement of the country’s infrastructure backbone and aggressive implementation of tourism marketing programmes should play a key role in attracting more tourists in 2018
Visitors
Visitors from neighbouring countries continue to dominate arrivals. Data from the Tourism department show that in 2017, 1.61 million Koreans visited the country followed by Chinese and Japanese tourists. The three markets accounted for 45% of total visitors during the year. Meanwhile, arrivals from the USA... reached 957,813
Supply
Colliers sees at least 3,400 new rooms being completed this year. From 2019 to 2021, we see an annual increase of about 1,900 units to Metro Manila’s stock. More than half of the new rooms will be in the Manila Bay Area
Vacancy rate
We project a lower occupancy rate of 65-68% this year due to the significant number of new rooms projected to open, especially in the Manila Bay Area. Colliers sees occupancy rebounding to 65-70% in 2019 to 2020 as delivery of new rooms tapers off.
Future Suggestion
We encourage firms to consider developing hotels near transport terminals including the proposed subways and airports and diversify outside Metro Manila. Developers and operators should emphasise cultural and historical aspects of old buildings that could be redeveloped into accommodation facilities."

> 2017-Q4-Hotels: http://www.colliers.com/-/media/files/marketing reports/4q2017_colliers_quarterly_hotel.pdf

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CBD stock breaches 100,000 units
Total condominium stock in Metro Manila's CBDs reached 101,500 units. Approximately 2,900 units were delivered in 4Q 2017 alone. The completions during the quarter were concentrated in Fort Bonifacio and Makati CBD, allowing them to increase their lead as the two biggest shareholders among submarkets with 27% and 25% of total stock respectively. They were followed by Ortigas Center with 17% and Manila Bay Area with 11%. We noted a few delays in building completions in 4Q 2017, which put the full year total to 10,400 units or 35% lower than earlier estimates.
Supply additions for 2018? Estimated at a truly huge 27,200 units (+26.8%). 2019: 8,200; 2020: 3,100
M-Bay: +11,900 (+108.2%), BGC: +9,300 (+33.8%), Makati CBD: +2,600 (+10.4%), Ortigas: +1,100 (6.3%)
Collier's estimates vacancies "flat" at 12.6% "due to delays", and now expects it to rise "to the mid-teens", before falling back.

RENTS
4Q /2016 : 150.6k : 6.67% : 0,837 : - 0.36 %: - 5.21% / 0,560 - 1,100 / 0,640 - 1,020 / 0,780 - 1,070 :
1Q /2017 : 154.6k : 6.39% : 0,823 : - 1.67 %: - 4.86% / 0,560 - 1,080 / 0,630 - 1,000 / 0,760 - 1,050 :
2Q /2017 : 161.5k : 6.08% : 0,818 : - 0.71 %: - 4.33% / 0,540 - 1,080 / 0,610 - 1,010 / 0,760 - 1,010 :
3Q /2017 : 167.0k : 5.81% : 0,809 : - 1.10 %: - 3.70% / 0,530 - 1,080 / 0,600 - 1,000 / 0,730 - 1,040 :
4Q /2017 : 100.0k : 0.00% : 0,800 : - 1.11 %: - 4.42% / 0,530 - 1,070 / 0,620 - 1,000 / 0,730 - 1,020 :
Qtr /Year : Mak-Mid.Yield : Rent : QonQtr : YronYr / Lo- Makati-H / L-Bonfacio-H / L-Rockw- H /

PRICES
4Q /2016 : 150,600e +2.81% : - 0.00 % : 109,000- 192.2K* : 110,500 - 226,400 : 188,400 - 207,700 : *274.6k x70% adj.
1Q /2017 : 154,600e +2.65% : + 1.71 % : P97,400- 192.2K* : 110,500 - 235,500 : 186,500 - 218,600 : *274.5k x77% adj. >post#301
2Q /2017 : 161,500e +4.46% : + 9.44 % : 108,900- 214.1K* : 110,500 - 236,200 : 188,800 - 226,500 : *274.5k x78% adj. >post#323
3Q /2017 : 167,000e +3.41% : + 14.0 % : 111,600- 222.3k* : 111,600 - 238,600 : 197,200 - 236,600 : *277.9k x80% adj. >post#351
4Q /2017 : 174,700e +4.61% : + 16.0 % : 111,700- 237.7k* : 112,000 - 239,400 : 198,000 - 244,300 : *286.4k x83% adj.
Qtr / Yr. : Mak-Mid. QonQtr : Yr.onYr. / Low - Makati - H / Low -Bonfacio- H / Low -Rockwell- H /

> CONDOS,2017-Q4, Colliers: http://www.colliers.com/-/media/files/marketing reports/4q2017_colliers_quarterly_residential.pdf

 

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BSP Raises 2018 Inflation Forecast to 4.3% - Phil. Daily Inquirer, pg. B1, 2/2/2018

And the 2019 forecast is up from 3.2 pct to 3.5 pct, near the high end of 2-4 percent projected range

+ The Monetary board kept interest rate policy steady in its latest guidance, announced this week
+ Impact of the TRAIN tax changes was not included in previous projection; now passed and included
+ TRAIN added excise taxes on oil, cigarettes, sugary drinks, and cars
+ Rate of increase in basic good of 4% through last month was fastest since 4.3 in October 2017
+ Some of increase was blamed on lingering effects of two typhoons

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Record Condo sales in 2017
Business World picked this up from the Colliers Q4-2017 Report
+ 52,600 condos sold in 2017, up 25.2% from 42,000 in 2016
+ "Helped by last-minute launches"
+ "The uptrend in prices will likely continue", quoting Dinbo Macaranas, Colliers Sr. Research Mgr
+ Rents, by contrast, "showed only modest growth" - in fact Makati's 3BR rents ropped to P803 psm
The given reasons for the price growth: Metro Manila's rental yield of 5.3% beats Top Asian cities
(BK: 4.4%, SG: 2.9%, HK: 2.0% - only Jakarta's 8% & Ho Chi Minh's 6% beat Manila.)
(They don't mention "safe haven buying" by mainland Chinese... & possibly Koreans)

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Makati Condo Chart - to Q4-2017

tRpNS8J.gif

Developer Stock charts - to 4/12/2018 ... since 1/2013 : 1/2016 :

kETBDMz.gif

image.pngxx

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Driving pressure on PH developer stocks - Local interest rates !  (= behind that: inflation & dollar rates)

Some Investors decide "Buy on Bad News" (25bp rise by BSP) - But for how long?

MEG - etc (SMPH, ALI, DLBR) ... update / note: DLBR of 18.3 = 3mos Libor of 4.34%

fSIEIQu.gif

Bangko Sentral likely to continue tightening (at least one more) - Business Times, May 14, 2018

"Further policy tightening this year is expected from the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP) as risks to inflation remain to the upside."

"Analysts from (various banks) said that monetary officials will raise rates at least one more time in 2018"

"The 25-basis points adjustment (announced last Thursday by the BSP, the first rise in 3 years) took the BSP's overnight borrowing, lending and deposit rates to 3.25 percent, 3.75 percent, and 3 percent, respectively."

"The Monetary Board also raised inflation forecasts for 2018 and 2019 to 4.6 percent and 3.4 percent, respectively, from 3.9 percent and 3 percent."

"If world oil prices rise significantly above $80... could push up inflation pressure and force the BSP to hike policy rates more than currently expected..."

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Not True anymore (the 6%)... at least for some brand new flats

26dde06a650d2c8e3a9f7cca5b197404.jpg

(here's a related comment from SSC):

A mixed of reasons. I believe the market can go up another 30% at least. In July 2017, I told a Shang Property employee that preselling Makati properties will be 300k/sqm in a few years’ time. He thank me for my confidence in Philippines but I don’t think he took my view seriously. So far, my only surprise is the prices go up faster than I anticipated.

1) Because many people are charging the Chinese high prices. There is a Amaia Steps Alabang condo. My Chinese contact told me that the agents there are demanding 36000 peso per month for a 32 sqm unfurnished unit. I thought his English is bad and misunderstood the agent. When I spoke to the agent, he confirmed it is 36000 peso. And his attitude is bad. I find another broker in Alabang and after a few days, she reported the same asking rent! For the Chinese who got charged high rents, the gross yields they face is not 6.13%. It is closer to 8%-9%.

2) You may think 6.13% gross yields are not high enough, and 5% is low. How about you look at China’s 2.10%? If you can only get 2.10%, even 4% looks fat and juicy to you. At 1000 peso/sqm per month rental rate, 4% means 300k/sqm price.

3) QC and Greenhills are not popular with foreign buyers. Yet sales there can support prices of 160k/sqm in QC and 180k-210k/sqm in Greenhills. This show that there are enough filipinos who feel comfortable buying at current prices. If QC is 160k/sqm and Greenhills is 200k/sqm, Makati BGC Pasay can definitely support 250k/sqm.

I saw Glaston’s first day reported sales data. 81% sold and many buyers are regional companies wanting a Manila office. These people know 90% of the money in Philippines are in Manila. Don’t look like a bubble at all.

4) Philippines’ governance is not great, foreign direct investments are low and dominated by local monopolies. These are weak points, but it means even a slight improvement could trigger optimism for property prices.

5) When many people are saying it’s a bubble, it’s often not. It’s only a bubble when even the bears start to think there is no bubble.

After writing all these, I better force my PA to get a preselling condo soon

> http://www.skyscrapercity.com/showthread.php?t=1723515&page=83

The WRITER of such a confusing message, seems to have something to sell - eh?

If it is true chinese are asked for higher rents, mainland chinese tenants may get local "colleagues or friends" to rent for them.

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HOTTEST PROPERTY?

Is named as what country, do you reckon?

(points for guessing #2 and #3)

> Link: http://uk.businessinsider.com/us-news-best-countries-to-invest-in-now-2018-3?r=US&IR=T/#8-thailand-13


## : Country--- : Population : GDP$B : Grew : /capita :
 1. : Philippines- : 103.3 Mn. : $ 304.9 : +6.9%:  $ 2,952 :
 2. : Indonesia--- : 261.1 Mn. : $ 932.3 : +5.0%:  $ 3,571 :
 3. : Poland-------- :   37.9 Mn. : $ 469.5 : +2.9%: $12,388 :
 4. : Malaysia----- :   31.2 Mn. : $ 296.4 : +4.2%:  $ 9,500 :
 5. : Singapore--- :     5.6 Mn. : $ 297.0 : +2.0%: $53,036 :
 6. : Australia------ :  24.1 Mn. : $1200. : +2.8%: $49,793 :
 7. : Spain----------- :   46.4 Mn. : $1200. : +3.3%: $25,862 :
 8. : Thailand------- :  68.9 Mn. : $ 406.8 : +3.2%: $ 5,904 :
 9. : India------------ : 1300. Mn. : $2300. : +7.1%: $ 1,769 :
10. : Oman--------- :     4.4 Mn. : $  66.3 : - nil?- : $15,068 :
===
>10 : Czech Republic, Finland, Uruguay, Turkey, Ireland
>15 : Netherlands, United Kingdom, Brazil, France, Chile

To qualify as a country worthy of investment, certain standards must be met.

A World Bank Group report highlighted four factors — the country's people, environment, relationships, and framework — that propel both individuals and corporations to invest in a given country's natural resources, markets, technologies, or brands.

Guided by the report from the World Bank Group, U.S. News identified the best countries to invest in for 2018.

Last month, U.S. News released their 2018 Best Countries ranking. To determine the overall list, U.S. News surveyed over 21,000 people worldwide about 80 different countries, measuring them on 65 different attributes, including cultural influence, entrepreneurship, and quality of life.

For the best countries to invest in ranking, U.S. News focused on just eight of the 65 attributes: entrepreneurship, economic stability, favorable tax environment, innovation, skilled labor, technological expertise, dynamism, and corruption. Responses from over 6,000 survey participants — who act as decision makers in business around the globe — were then used to determine the ranking.

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Thinking about WHERE to Live? 

Here are some complex and detailed considerations

Many People Are FLEEING Their Cities and America Too! Where Can You Go?

People are leaving the Bay Area of CA, & the USA

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Condo Price Rises - Makati rules

5f60e5fc45bca780ad5e243518144b86.jpg

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https://www.rappler.com/business/206203-residential-real-estate-price-index-q1-2018

Housing prices rise by 2.1% in Q1 2018

In the 1st quarter of 2018, there was a 13.8% increase in the prices of townhouses and a 2% increase in the prices of condominium units, says the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas

. . . In the 1st quarter of 2018, there was a 13.8% increase in the prices of townhouses and a 2% increase in the prices of condominium units.

In contrast, prices of single detached housing units declined slightly by 0.6%.

For Metro Manila alone, the average residential property prices increased by 2.7% compared to year-ago prices. "The higher growth in prices of condominium units, townhouses, and duplexes offset the decline in prices of single detached houses," according to the BSP.

There were 7 regions that accounted for 95.7% of total housing loans granted by banks:

  • Metro Manila - 48.3%
  • Calabarzon - 25.5%
  • Central Luzon - 7.1%
  • Central Visayas - 5.5%
  • Western Visayas - 4.3%
  • Davao Region - 3.2%
  • Northern Mindanao - 1.8%

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"Friar Lands" in the PH

Three religious orders: Dominicans, Augustinians, and Recollects own over 10% of the Improved land in the PH.

This dates back to the Spanish period, but when the Americans took over, they agreed to protect the Friars' rights over the Lands.

The US purchased some 170,000 hectares of these lands for $7 million for resale.

(says Carmen Pedrosa, in her From A Distance column in The Philippine Star)

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