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DATA : Peso // Makati Property Price Data, News & Comments

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OLD DATA - to Q3-2017

=========

DATA : Peso // Makati Property Price Data, News & Commentary

 

LINKs --> : MAKATI PRIME Landing page / Chat : Tips : Rent : Is it a Bubble? :

 

The Philippines has one of the fastest growing economies in the world, rivaling China with its growth rate, 6-7% p.a.

It is the 4th largest English-speaking country.

 

DDVQx02.jpg

This thread has a commentary, data, news, charts and maps. ... PB

 

Stocks, all data : PSEI : PSE : Both / ali : smph : agi : meg : cpg : shng :

Currency Rates : usdPHP ... All Data : 2-years : 6-mos : 10-days / DXY : CNY vsPHP : MYRvsPHP : old : PB :

OcxZUyr.gif

 

/ The following data was derived primarily from the fine Colliers Qtrly report, "the knowledge" /

 

:: RENTING ideas, suggestions :: a special thread for Renting in Makati

 

RENTALS : Makati, Bonifacio, Rockwell

Qtr /Year : CapVal.: Yield%: MMidpt: QonQtr : YonYr / Lo - Makati - H / L-Bonfacio-H / L-Rockwell- H /
3Q /2012 : 116.0k : 7.32% : 0,708 : +1.2E% : +5.0E% / 0,525 - 0,890 / 0,568 - 0,850 / 0,677 - 0,950 :
4Q /2012 : 118.0k : 7.32% : 0,720 : +1.69% : +7.0E% / 0,525 - 0,915 / 0,570 - 0,865 / 0,686 - 0,912 :
1Q /2013 : 123.8k : 7.12% : 0,735 : +2.08% : +8.0E% / 0,540 - 0,930 / 0,580 - 0,890 / 0,700 - 0,930 :
2Q /2013 : 128.7k : 7.27% : 0,780 : +6.12% : +11 E% / 0,545 - 1,015 / 0,590 -0,940e/ 0,705 -0,970e:
3Q /2013 : 132.0k : 7.27% : 0,800 : +2.56% : +13.0% / 0,550 - 1,050 / 0,600 - 0,990 / 0,710 - 1,000 :
4Q /2013 : 134.9k : 7.16% : 0,805 : +0.63% : +11.8% / 0,550 - 1,060 / 0,610 - 1,010 / 0,720 - 1,020 :
1Q /2014 : 136.5k : 7.12% : 0,810 : +0.62% : +10.2% / 0,555 - 1,065 / 0,610 - 1,020 / 0,725 - 1,025 :
2Q /2014 : 138.1k : 7.13% : 0,820 : +1.23% : +5.13% / 0,560 - 1,080 / 0,625 - 1,025 / 0,740 - 1,030 :
3Q /2014 : 142.8k : 6.97% : 0,830 : +1.22% : +3.75% / 0,570 - 1,090 / 0,630 - 1,035 / 0,790 - 1,090 :
4Q /2014 : 144.5k : 6.96% : 0,838 : +0.96% : +4.10% / 0,575 - 1,100 / 0,640 - 1,045 / 0,750 - 1,055 :
1Q /2015 : 147.4k : 6.90% : 0,848 : +1.19% : +4.69% / 0,578 - 1,118 / 0,660 - 1,050 / 0,755 - 1,080 :
2Q /2015 : 149.0k : 6.94% : 0,862 : +1.65% : +5.12% / 0,588 - 1,135 / 0,672 - 1,070 / 0,769 - 1,099 :
3Q /2015 : 151.0k : 6.95% : 0,875 : +1.51% : +5.42% / 0,595 - 1,155 / 0,680 - 1,083 / 0,804 - 1,098 :
4Q /2015 : 151.3k : 7.02% : 0,883 : +0.91% : +5.37% / 0,600 - 1,166 / 0,688 - 1,094 / 0,814 - 1,094 :
1Q /2016 : 152.0k : 6.82% : 0,865 : - 2.04% : +2.00% / 0,590 - 1,140 /
2Q /2016 : 147.6k : 6.95% : 0,855 : - 1.16 %: - 0.11% / 0,580 - 1,130 / 0,660 - 1,050 / 0,800 - 1,100 :
3Q /2016 : 146.5k : 6.88% : 0,840 : - 1.75 %: - 4.00% / 0,570 - 1,110 / 0,655 - 1,040 / 0,790 - 1,080 :

4Q /2016 : 150.6k : 6.67% : 0,837 : - 0.36 %: - 5.21% / 0,560 - 1,100 / 0,640 - 1,020 / 0,780 - 1,070 :

1Q /2017 : 154.6k : 6.39% : 0,823 : - 1.67 %: - 4.86% / 0,560 - 1,080 / 0,630 - 1,000 / 0,760 - 1,050 :

2Q /2017 : 161.5k : 6.08% : 0,818 : - 0.71 %: - 4.33% / 0,540 - 1,080 / 0,610 - 1,010 / 0,760 - 1,010 :

3Q /2017 : 167.0k : 5.81% : 0,809 : - 1.10 %: - 3.70% / 0,530 - 1,080 / 0,600 - 1,000 / 0,730 - 1,040 :
Qtr /Yr.: Mak-Mid. Yield : Rent : QonQtr : YronYr / Lo - Makati - H / L-Bonfacio-H / L-Rockw- H /
Makati Yield 3br? : 2Q/ 2017 : 0,818 x12 = 9,816 / 161,500: 6.08% Yield (prev. 6.39%)

Note: Compare with the Yield on a Office: Premier : ??? (9.14%) : Grade-A : ??? (10.03%)
> Office yield : thread

Makati Residential Stock and Growth Rates - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - : Historical Prices - PHP per Sq. M. - - - - :

supply.png?w=583&h=429 : philippines-luxury-3-bedroon-condominium

60lzqLA.jpg : philippines-house-prices-1.gif : philippines-bank-average-lendng-rates.gi

Colliers-Insight ... PB :

Historical Record - : Three Top CBD's per Colliers Int'l

PROPERTY : 3BR - Capital Values : ( per Sq. Meter )
Colliers
Qtr /Yr. : Mak-Mid. QonQtr : YronYr / Low - Makati - H / Low -Bonfacio- H / Low -Rockwell- H /
4Q /2007 : 095,000 : +1.0E% : +15.2% : 85,000 - 105,000 :
1Q /2008 : 096,575 : +1.66% : +12.3% : 85,000 - 108,150 :
2Q /2008 : 101,650 : +5.25% : +15.5% : 90,950 - 112,350 > went up too fast ? needed to correct ?
3Q /2008 : 101,958 : +0.30% : +12.1% : 91,205 - 112,665 :
4Q /2008 : 101,750 : -0.20% : + 7.11% :
1Q /2009 : 101,000 : -0.74% : + 4.58% : 90,000 - 112,000 :
2Q /2009 : 101,002 : +0.00% : - 0.64% : 90,000 - 112,000 :
3Q /2009 : P99,706 : -1.28% : - 2.21% :
4Q /2009 : P99,191 : -0.52% : - 2.51% :
1Q /2010 : P99,192 : +0.00% : - 1.79% :
2Q /2010 : 100,100 : +0.92% : - 0.89% :
3Q /2010 : 101,627 : +1.52% : + 1.93% :: 70,827 - 132,426 : 085,346 - 120,231 : 092,000 - 119,768 :
4Q /2010 : 102,289 : +0.65% : + 3.12% :: 70,827 - 133,750 : 085,943 - 121,000 : 092,000 - 121,000 :
1Q /2011 : 103,244 : +0.93% : + 4.09% :: 71,535 - 134,954 : 086,287 - 121,557 : 092,000 - 122,500 :
2Q /2011 : 106,067 : +2.73% : + 5.96% :: 71,621 - 140,512 : 087,889 - 123,866 : 092,956 - 125,337 :
3Q /2011 : 107,169 : +1.04% : + 5.45% :: 73,638 - 140,699 : 088,514 - 125,724 : 092,920 - 131,074 :
4Q /2011 : 109,202 : +1.91% : + 6.77% :: 74,230 - 144,200 : 089,212 - 127,533 : 094,069 - 133,041 :
1Q /2012 : 114,061 : +4.44% : +10.48% : 78,000 - 150,121 : 090.688 - 135,125 : 098,421 - 140,551 :
2Q /2012 : 115,429 : +1.20% : + 8.83% :: 78,936 - 151,922 : 090,658 - 136,746 : 098,913 - 141,816 :
3Q /2012 : 116,025 : +0.52% : + 8.26% :: 78,950 - 153,100 : 091,290 - 141,390 : 099,900 - 147,490 :
4Q /2012 : 117,950 : +1.66% : + 8.01% :: 80,050 - 155,850 : 091,750 - 145,630 : 101,000 - 150,440 :
1Q /2013 : 123,760 : +4.93% : + 8.50% :: 81,650 - 165,870 : 093,585 - 149,415 : 103,020 - 153,300 :
2Q /2013 : 128,730 : +4.02% : +11.52% : 87,365 - 170,095 : 098,265 - 156,885 : 106,110 - 159,430 :
3Q /2013 : 132,048 : +2.58% : +13.81% : 88,895 - 175,200 : 100,720 - 159,240 : 107,175 - 162,300 :
4Q /2013 : 134,908 : +2.17% : +14.38% : 90,675 - 179,140 : 102,230 - 161,290 : 109,315 - 168,220 :

1Q /2014 : 136,533 : +1.20% : +10.32% : 91,715 - 181,350 : 103,200 - 163,150 : 110,240 - 175,685 :

2Q /2014 : 138,083 : +1.13% : + 7.27% :: 93,000 - 183,165 : 104,400 - 165,465 : 111,345 - 172,070 :

3Q /2014 : 142,750 : +3.38% : + 8.10% :: 98,000 - 187,500 : 108,000 - 170,000 : 115,000 - 178,500 :

4Q /2014 : 144,500 : +1.23% : + 7.11% : 100,000- 189,000 : 110,000 - 180,000 : 117,000 - 180,000 :

1Q /2015 : 147,350 : +1.97% : + 7.92% : 102,500- 192,200 : 113,000 - 179,500 : 119,000 - 189,000 :

2Q /2015 : 149,000 : +1.11% : + 7.91% : 104,000- 194,000 : 114,000 - 182,000 : 119,000 - 198,000 :
3Q /2015 : 151,000 : +1.34% : + 5.78% : 106,000- 196,000 : 114,000 - 185,000 : 121,000 - 201,000 :

4Q /2015 : 151,300 : +0.20% : + 4.71 % : 106,400- 196,200 : 114,700 - 185,400 : 121,700 - 202,100 :

1Q /2016 : 152,000 : +0.46% : + 3.16 % : 107,000- 197,000 : 115,000 - 185,000 : 121,700 - 202,100 :

2Q /2016 : 147,575 : - 2.91% : - 0.96 % : 103,770- 191,380 : 111,760 - 180.760 : 120,390 - 200,040 :
3Q /2016 : 146,485 : - 0.74% : - 2.99 % : 103,010- 189,960 : 109.790 - 177,580 : 119,090 - 197,870 :

4Q /2016 : 150,600e +2.81% : - 0.00 % : 109,000- 192.2K* : 110,500 - 226,400 : 188,400 - 207,700 : *274.6k x70% adj.

1Q /2017 : 154,600e +2.65% : + 1.71 % : P97,400- 192.2K* : 110,500 - 235,500 : 186,500 - 218,600 : *274.5k x77% adj. >post#301
2Q /2017 : 161,500e +4.46% : + 9.44 % : 108,900- 214.1K* : 110,500 - 236,200 : 188,800 - 226,500 : *274.5k x78% adj. >post#323

3Q /2017 : 167,000e +3.41% : + 14.0 % : 111,600 - 222.3k* : 111,600 - 238,600 : 197,200 - 236,600 : *277.9k x80% adj. >post#351

Qtr / Yr. : Mak-Mid. QonQtr : Yr.onYr. / Low - Makati - H / Low -Bonfacio- H / Low -Rockwell- H /

forecasts
1Q /2017 : 159,600 : +7.11%- : +5.3% Est : 109,100- 201,000 : 117,900 - 190,700 : 124.300 - 206,500 :
2Q /2017 : 142,000 : -11.0%-- : - 4.0% Est : 100,000- 184,000 : 100,000 - 184,000 : 119.000 - 197,000 :

3Q /2017 : 138,755 : - 2.3 %-- : - 5.3% Est : P97,570- 179,940 : 103,380 - 167,220 : 113,360 - 188,350 :

4Q /2017 : 209,300 : +50.8%--: ======Est : 116,600- 302,000 : 111,100 - 309,000 : 198,300 - 230,000 :
1Q /2018 : 206,100 : - 1.53%--:+29.1% Est : 108,000- 304,200 : 118,300 - 252,200 : 201,800 - 236,500 :
2Q /2018 : 208,850 : +1.33%--:+47.1% Est : 118,700- 299,000 : 120,300 - 257,300 : 200,200 - 240,300 :

========

3FXQX0s.png: Adjustment starts Q4-2016 : Q1 : PB :

===============
Prior Qtr's Charts- :: q4-15 / q1, q2, q3, Rept: q3, q4-16 / q1, q2, q3, q4-17 /

LINK to this thread- :: http://tinyurl.com/PHP-Makati : Makati : BGC/Taguig : QC : completed : insight :

RENTING in Makati :: http://www.greenenergyinvestors.com/index.php?showtopic=20162

GDP / Inflation databank, post#257-8: http://www.greenenergyinvestors.com/index.php?showtopic=18811&page=13

(More LINKS, post#2)

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FALLING YIELDS - again in Q3-2017. How savvy are the buyers?

Since the recent peak Yields of 7.02% - in Q4-2015 when Rent's peaked at P883 psm.
Rents have fallen by 8.4% to just P 809 per sqm.

Nevertheless, Condo Buyers ignored the trend in Rents, and kept bidding up the prices of new condos.
In the same period, the average Condo in the index was up from P151.2k to P167k psm, a rise of 10.4%.
Consequently, Yields have fallen even more than Rents.
Gross Yields (on 3BR units) are down to just 5.81% - that's a 17.2% drop - on a 8% drop in Rents

Meantime, prices keep rising, and interest rates are stable-to-rising.

 

Who propping this market up?

Probably potential own-use / family-use buyers from the OFW,

and Mainland Chinese who are buying (somewhat naively?) for safe-haven reasons.

 

Here's Colliers own comment:

 

"Modest decline in rents as prices still on a plateau The additional supply and rising vacancy have pushed rents down as the rental market has become more competitive. Options within and outside CBDs have increased and have provided alternatives to tenants in the market. Among the three top locations for prime condominium units, Makati showed the biggest decline in rents, albeit still a modest 1.0% decline quarter on quarter to P809 per sq m per month (1.50 USD per sq ft per month). It was followed by Rockwell which declined by 0.50% to P886 per sq m per month (1.65 per sq ft per month) and Fort Bonifacio by 0.12% to P811 per sq m per month (1.51 per sq ft per month).

Among the three locations, Rockwell Center commands the most expensive rent. Understandably, the contained environment of Rockwell Center has largely kept the consistency of products within the area, softening rental impact through time. Meanwhile, the sizeable stock in both Makati and Fort Bonifacio has tightened competition among various developments.
The secondary market prices in major CBDs continued plateauing. Although still in an uptrend, the velocity of capital appreciation slowed down in recent quarters"

==

> http://www.colliers.com/-/media/files/marketing%20reports/3q2017_colliers_quarterly_residential_final.pdf

 

COMPARE:

=======

4Q /2015 : 151.0k : 7.02% : 0,883 : +0.91% : +5.37% / 0,600 - 1,166 / 0,688 - 1,094 / 0,814 - 1,094:

1Q /2016 : 152.0k : 6.82% : 0,865 : - 2.04% : +2.00% / 0,590 - 1,140 /
2Q /2016 : 147.6k : 6.95% : 0,855 : - 1.16 %: - 0.11% / 0,580 - 1,130 / 0,660 - 1,050 / 0,800 - 1,100 :
3Q /2016 : 146.5k : 6.88% : 0,840 : - 1.75 %: - 4.00% / 0,570 - 1,110 / 0,655 - 1,040 / 0,790 - 1,080 :
4Q /2016 : 150.6k : 6.67% : 0,837 : - 0.36 %: - 5.21% / 0,560 - 1,100 / 0,640 - 1,020 / 0,780 - 1,070 :
1Q /2017 : 154.6k : 6.39% : 0,823 : - 1.67 %: - 4.86% / 0,560 - 1,080 / 0,630 - 1,000 / 0,760 - 1,050 :
2Q /2017 : 161.5k : 6.08% : 0,818 : - 0.71 %: - 4.33% / 0,540 - 1,080 / 0,610 - 1,010 / 0,760 - 1,010 :
3Q /2017 : 167.0k : 5.81% : 0,809 : - 1.10 %: - 3.70% / 0,530 - 1,080 / 0,600 - 1,000 / 0,730 - 1,040 :
Qtr /Year. : Mak-Mid. Yield : Rent : QonQtr : YronYr / Lo - Makati - H / L-Bonfacio-H / L-Rockw- H /

 

VACANCIES have risen into the mid-teens in many Manila locations (such as 14.1% in Makati & 15.3% in BGC;
they are lower at 11.5% in Rockwell, and lower still, at just 6.4% in Ortigas), but a slowing of Condo completions in 2018, may turn these figures around and bring them lower in 2018 and 2019, in Makati at least.
Colliers still expects Rents to continue to fall "for years", but the falls may be highest in the 3BR and above size range. I am seeing signs of stable and even rising rents in the Studio size range. As an example of this, Avida has NO STUDIOS available for rent in Makati, as I was writing this.

 

A strong position thing is that Household formations in PH are continuing to rise faster than Condo completions of Metro Manila as a whole.
The ability of developers to sell Condos at higher and higher prices, suggests that demand is still healthy, buyers are not put off by lower yields (at least not yet!)

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