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DATA : Peso // Makati Property Price Data, News & Comments

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ECB, these Videos & the prediction may thrill you

 

"Philippines is the key for the whole human race"

 

City Of Pearl Manila Proves Why Philippines Will Be The Richest Country In Coming Years

 

Published on 15 Jul 2017

Philippines will become the richest country

 

"Many were concerned that it would not take off because of the corruption"

(but the election of Duterte may help to reduce the corruption.)

"Philippines will become very, very rich because of Philippines' emotions."

"No other place will be as rich as Southeast Asia."

It will go from Slums, to gleaming cities "because of lusch..." (er, ah, ET's, & their hunger for emotion)

 

(I regard his prediction with skepticism & suspicion, but am not ready to dismiss it entirely.)

 

/ 2 /

Here's another thrilling building (by a Belgian architect, I believe)

 

=

Is this project real?

I stumbled across this video, which talks about an iconic new tower planned for BGC

 

The Icone Tower - The Light of Manila (in Fort Bonifacio Global City BGC)

 

Published on 23 Jun 2017

This a new upcoming project in Bonifacio Global City beside UPTOWN MALL by BCDA and Henning Larsen HongKong - THE ICONE TOWER MANILA. This would give the neighborhood community in Uptown Bonifacio a sense of prime location to WORK-LIVE PLAY & SHOP. This will serve as a new benchmark to the skyscrapers in Metro Manila and would revolutionize the way we picture the skies.

Claude Bojer Godefroy (Partner and Design Director) - Bonifacio Global City will soon work on a very special building it will transform its image and become a new focal point of Manila. I think its a good idea to add more character in the business district that have few distinctive buildings, I think its a good idea to make a statement about building in Manila today, a statement about being generous with public space, about giving back to the city and of course to its people, a statement about filipino architecture is about, but first we have to understand what makes the ICONE successful.

Invest NOW in Uptown Bonifacio, BGC!!
1BR unit starts at P15k per month!!
2BR/3BR starts at P20k per month!!

 

"We call the top part, "The Light of Manila".

How, er, Luciferian can you get?

=== ===

 

18920330_1726812127334583_89052711669136

 

There is a SSC thread:

 

BGC | Icone Tower - The Light Of Manila (BCDA's Iconic Tower ...

www.skyscrapercity.com › ... › Metro Manila Projects on the Rise › Taguig
Jun 6, 2017 - 20 posts - ‎17 authors

Wow, this will surely be one of the icons of Manila once built. Witty din ng name, ICONE Tower, hehe. Now PNOC has to level up the design ...

Comments:

Grand Hyatt's ground to roof deck height is 258m while Icone Tower's height is 301m. The former's official height including the spire is 318m while the latter is yet to be known but may challenge Eiffel Tower at 326m since the upper most level will serve as the observation deck and topmost will be the location of searchlights to illuminate at night time

/ 2 /

Can they build that icons tower in the huge lot between montane and Turf. It's better location and more in the center of bgc

=> see BGC thread: http://www.greenenergyinvestors.com/index.php?showtopic=21244&page=2

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Interesting Bullish comments:

 

"“Property stocks will continue to move higher and even outperform as the sector continues to grow with the economy,” said Fitzgerald Aclan, who helps manage about $20 billion at BDO Unibank Inc. as the head of equity investments. “There are still some property companies that offer good value and attractive potential upside.”

.
800x-1.png

The fund manager, whose BDO Sustainable Dividend Fund has gained 16 percent this year, pointed to Ayala Land Inc. Its shares have increased about a third in value in 2017 but are still trading at a price-to-earnings ratio that’s 14 percent lower than the five-year average. Aclan said he turned “bullish” on the sector this year, cutting holdings of consumer and energy companies to buy real-estate shares.

Perception has changed, according to COL Financial Group, amid an increase in home bookings and new residential developments, while the office segment is benefiting as the government lures overseas outsourcing companies and those that run gambling websites."

 

Do FALLING RENTS not matter?

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Well he forgot DMCI, because DMCI H1 2017 reservation sales up a staggering 80pct.

 

This is an indication that more wealth is concentrated in the middle class.

The middle class is growing by leaps and bounds in PH.

 

Kai Garden's first building is almost 80pct sold, one week after launch.

All 1BR units - 93k to 85k per square meter - are sold out now.

Brixtons Place was their best project in terms of sales performance ever, I read somewhere.

 

http://business.inquirer.net/235172/dmci-homes-h1-reservation-sales-80

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Brixton place will benefit from a new Bridge

 

BRIDGES can bring real change

 

NEW Bonifacio Global City - Ortigas Bridge - Why It Matters

 

This bridge will help raise property values, especially on the "cheaper" side (Ortigas?)

 

> http://www.greenenergyinvestors.com/index.php?showtopic=21643

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Excerpt:

 

""

Majority of condominiums with the highest rental yields in Metro Manila come from DMCI.

 

 

http://www.dmciresidences.com.ph/whats-new/do-you-also-believe-that-dmci-is-the-best-condominium-developer-in-the-philippines

 

That's probably true for projects launched 2-3-4-5 years ago when DMCI was still cheap, but DMCI has gotten a lot more expensive now, so whether the new DMCI investors of today are going to get an as good yield as the previous DMCI investors - remains to be seen.

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Excerpt:

 

""

For most people, your best option is to wait for a pullback in the market. Either that or buy property in a country growing just as fast but with more reasonable prices. Real estate in the Philippines is simply too expensive compared to its neighbors and stage of development.

""

http://www.investasian.com/countries/investing-in-philippines/

http://www.investasian.com/blog/asia-cheapest-places-buy-real-estate/

 

Second excerpt

""

But we probably won’t see a collapse. This is because the Philippine economy is among the fastest growing in the region, climbing by an impressive 6.9% in 2016. Foreign investors, especially the Chinese, should help soak up excess demand.

Either way, the Philippines’ real estate market (or at the very least Manila’s) has more modest days ahead. This is one case where comparatively low prices don’t equal a bargain.

''''

http://www.investasian.com/invest-asian-index/

+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

(ECB comment:)

This advisor is strongly biased towards Cambodia -- and let's face it, Cambodia has the same

demographic profile as PH. But his analysis of the market is doubtful. He assigns Cambodia

a top rating for its yield because you can buy old buildings in Phong Pheng where you can get

a 8-10 pct yield. But how can you move funds into Cambodia?? Cambodia does not have

an international remittance network like PH. And I am sure if you buy second hand properties

in MNL or elsewhere in PH, that you can also get a much higher rental yield. So PH still

has top ratings, despite the recent 8 year bull run.

And a pullback might come and is even necessary and healthy after a bull run, and a plateau. And new construction in Phong Pheng, I guess, will also set you back for around USD2,000-3,000 per square meter and wages are perhaps lower in Cambodia than PH.

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Business World headline / & a look at Forecast Supply figures

Metro Manila condominium rents fall, selling prices plateau

 

(based on Colliers latest report)

 

+ VACANCY RATES will likely pick up further over the next 12 months with new supply

+ Consequence: Rental prices fell, capital values are plateauting

+ Vacancy rates at high-end condos were 10.9% at the end of June - Colliers expects rates to "hover between 11.0 & 11.5%"

+ Metro Manila's total condo stock is 96,000 units, with an addition of 2,300 units in Q2

+ For 2017 as a whole, Colliers sees an addition of 16,100 units, and a takeup of 7,500 units - hence the rise in the vacancy rate

+ Coming supply: 20,000 units in 2018, 8,000 units in 2019

+ Take-up rate is projected to be 8,000 more each year

 

Highest vacancy rates were: BGC = 14% (12%); Makati: 12.7% (11%) - prior rates at Q1 shown in (brackets)

 

Prices rises are slowing:

+ Makati CBD : +3.1% (was + 3.2% in Q1),

+ BGC / Ft. Bonifacio : + 0.2% (+ 2.7%)

 

Growth of supply in fringe areas, as impacted on rents and selling prices in the CBD's, since home buyers and tenants have other options

 

SUPPLY FORECAST (Revised from end-2016)

==================

========= : End'16 : -2017 : -2018 : -2019 : -2020 : '17-20 : End'20 : % chg.
Ft.Bonifacio 24,200 : 4,100 : 8,200 : 3,000 : 0,000 : 15,300 : 37,500 : +63.2%
Makati CBD: 22,000 : 3,500 : 1,800 : 0,500 : 0,300 : 06,100 : 28,100 : +27.7%
Rise/Air Res: 00,000 : 0,000 : 0,000 : 0,000 : 6,400 : 06,400 : 06,400 : Infin.
Ortigas Ctr. : 16,200 : 1,400 ; 0,700 : 0,500 : 0,600 : 03,200 : 19,800 : +19.8%
Manila Bay : 08,800 : 5,500 : 8,500 : 2,600 : 2,100 : 18,700 : 27,500 : +212% !!
Rockwell Ctr: 04,100 : 0,000 : 0,500 : 0,700 : 0,000 : 01,200 : 05,300 : +29.3%
Other Areas : 00,000 :
>> TOTAL-- : 91,100: 16100: 21300 : 8,100 : 3,100 : 00,000: 140,100 : +53.8%

Mak+Rise/Air: 22,000 : 3,500 : 1,800 : 0,500 : 6,700 : 12,500 : 34,500 : +56.8%

 

After this year, the supply rise in Makati's CBD falls sharply - but are we seeing the whole picture?

Collier's seems to ignore the Huge lump of supply (6,400 units) from The Rise and Air Residences,

which I think will hit the Rental market in 2019 or 2020 - but Colliers seems to leave it out - Why?

 

If you include Air & Rise with Makati CBD, the combined rise is 57%, which is in line with the rise of 54%

for Greater Manila. Still, the big jump from these two in in 2019 or 2020, is bound to generate some sort of hiccup.

I hope it is a brief one. Allowing AirBNB in one or both buildings may help absorb the excess supply there faster.

 

The big jump in supply in Manila Bay (+212%) is a bigger concern to me,

We see + 8,500 units expected in 2018 - that's 97% of the end 2016 Supply of 8,800 units.

Can Manila Bay really attract so many new tenants, soquickly? I truly doubt it.

There is bound to be a disruption of Rents and also hotel occupancy.

Don't be surprised if Hotels push back by trying to restrict AirBNB activity.

 

SM may be especially keen to demand some retriction because they are said to planning to build a hotel

in Manila Bay. Will SMDC wind-up c"cutting off the legs" of their condo-buying customers?

 

I suggest extreme care in investing, and maybe analyzing the Supply situation more deeply that I am doing here.

If you do that, and agree or disagree, please share. This site is about truth seeking, not mere promotion.

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Duterte's Game Changer

Online casinos have given the Philippine market an unanticipated boost.

 

Philippine President Rodrigo Duterte is finding that some vices are good for the markets. His U-turn on online gaming has helped propel the country's benchmark stock index to a surprisingly strong 17 percent return this year.

Soon after taking office last summer, Duterte vowed to stop all online gaming. But speaking recently on the subject, the president -- whose bloody war on drugs has gained worldwide notoriety -- acknowledged he has changed tack. "I really can't stop it," he said. "You better tax them than fight them."

 

As a result, the government is looking at a cash cow. Over the past year, the industry regulator approved 45 online gaming companies that cater only to non-resident gamblers. Already in the first half, the government has collected $58 million in taxes and fees, accounting for more than 10 percent of its revenue from the gaming industry. The companies operate casino websites that offer games via either a streamed live dealer or an electronic random number generator.

Duterte's change of heart makes the Philippines the only Asian country that has a legal framework for online gaming companies.

==

> more: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-08-25/duterte-s-vice-u-turn-proves-a-game-changer-for-stocks

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MDS comments on The Philippines Peso

- excessive credit growth can force higher rates

(from a Viber chat):

I have worked as a foreign exchange trader at the beginning of my career and I ve kept a close eye on this ever since. What happens with the peso is really interesting and relevant for the RE market.

Despite growth being revised higher, php keeps falling and, importantly, consensus for further depreciation next year keeps rising. The reason behind it, in short, is that the growth is fueled by investments which trigger strong credit growth (+17.1% y/y in 1H!) and imports. This leads to a current account deficit.. And the market is pricing in that this will stay this way for the foreseeable future. Why this is relevant is that the fall in peso will create inflation and the central bank will have to step in and hike rates. The BSP has remained on the sidelines until now but I just saw that at UBS and other brokers are expecting one hike this year and 3 ((!)) next year. This will eventually slow down credit growth and we all know that a lot of credit growth also came from the property sector.

 

So what's the actionable?

1) I would tend to lock in low mortgage rates for a longer period of time.

2) the foreigners who, like me, liked to enter a carry trade with the php via NDF, hold off for now.

3) if you bought pre-selling now, expect rising financing costs in the future for the balance. I

 

t's a slow burning story but i think it deserves some consideration and it's an other indicator that local demand for RE may weaken as affordability deteriorates.

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A similar point of view - from -- Boo Chanco, Philippines Star

 

The Central Bank is "like a referee" in setting boundaries for currency moves

===

Our problem, as always, is how to fish out the truth from what government says. A good way of doing this is to look at the market. For one thing, foreign exchange traders have absolutely no respect for statements from finance secretaries or economic ministers. They look at our economic numbers and test how far they can go. Our technocrats will call them currency speculators but they don’t care. They do what they do best. They keep their antennas attuned to how the central bank will react to the market’s downward trend. Forex traders will keep on testing to see where the central bank draws the red line and starts defending the peso."

==

> http://m.philstar.com/315469/show/7809835e760f2a8bf854309c75b47908/

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http://systemisbroken.blogspot.com/2017/08/philippine-house-prices-hit-new-peak.html

 

Excerpt:

 

From 2004 to the present, the Philippine House Price Index has climbed much faster than inflation. The gap between current house prices and house prices adjusted for inflation stands at its highest ever, 66.52%

 

This I can understand, but please explain what he means with sales volume??? Is it licenses for the construction of new buildings??

Or is it the combined number of transactions in the primary and secondary market??

I would rather think the opposite. If upcoming future new primary sales will be so much reduced, then prices are likely headed higher, now lower??

What am I missing here??

 

So the system is not broken this time, and also not for Avida buyers in BGC, so maybe the pain will start in the 4Q of 2017???

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Prices up, Volumes down
HLURB%2BLicenses%2Bto%2BSell%2B2001%2Bto

 

Developers have a limited number of houses in inventory - they had expected a slowdown in buying.

So the market leaders, and Ayala in particular decided to RAISE PRICES to bring in more revenues per house, to stretch out their sales.

 

I was told by one of the Sales managers at Alveo, if they had not sales prices so aggressively, they might have sold out their inventory for the year

By SEPTEMBER - so the higher priced inventory may last until December

 

The strong buying said to be coming mainly from mainland China and Taiwan, and the problem they are having is that the 40% share of inventories

that can be sold to foreigners is SELLING OUT fast, and then only PH citizens are eligible to buy what is left

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Yeah - there has been a Big move UP in the Euro in 2017:

(down in the USD value of EUR)

 

(The US dollar hit its peak at the end of 2016, after Trump's election)

 

USD in Euros ... update : Peak: Eur.$0.967 / Latest: Eur.$0843 - 12.8%

OrKMxEg.gif

 

EUR in PHP Pesos ... update : Recent Low: Eur.$0.967 / Latest: Eur.$0843 - 12.8%

eraM8PD.gif

 

 

Peso-euro rate weakens 17% year-to-date

By Wilson Sy (The Philippine Star) | September 4, 2017 - 12:00am
peso-B.jpg

 

The main reason why the peso has weakened substantially against the euro this year is because of the extraordinary strength of euro. The euro is one of the best performing currencies this year.

Reasons why euro is strong

There are a number of reasons why the euro is surprisingly strong this year. We enumerate them below:

1) Broad-based economic recovery in the Eurozone – Led by Germany which expanded 2.1 percent in 2Q17, the Euro area is growing at its fastest pace since the 2012 EU sovereign debt crisis.

2) Growth continues to surprise to the upside – The euro area economy is poised to achieve above potential growth over the next two years, according to Moody’s. In contrast to the upgrades in EU growth outlook, the US growth outlook has revised downwards.

3) Unemployment at eight-year lows – Unemployment rate in the Euro area is at an eight-year low of 9.1 percent in July 2017. In the case of Germany, the unemployment rate of 4.1 percent is at multi-decade lows.

4) Exports hit record highs – Exports grew eight percent in the first six months of 2017 on the back of vehicle and machinery exports. EU enjoys a trade surplus of EUR 107.7 billion vs. its trading partners

==

> more: http://www.philstar.com/business/2017/09/04/1735490/peso-euro-rate-weakens-17-year-date

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Lamudi lists 7 areas for property hunters - Manila Times, pg. B5
======
FRINGE AREAS with good supply and low prices
"If you are looking for Value-for-money real estate but still covet a city address,

these are your best alternatives"

==
1 / Bgy. San Antonio, Makati

: being touted as an extension of Makati's CBD; nightlife, & foodie scene

: Existing: Belton Pl., Linear, Avida Makati West

: Coming: Rise, Air, San Antonio Res., Asten, One Antonio
2 / Bgy. Ususan, Taguig
: a stone's throw from both McKinley Ave. & BGC; c5 etx. & new bridge
: Condos: Acacia Estates, Grace, Cyprus Towers, C5 Mansions
3 / Bgy. Western Bicutan, Taguig (Arca South, FTI)
: Coming: Ayala's: Lanes, Veranda, One Union Pl.; AFPOVAI Village
4 / Bgy. Palanan, Makati
: Under-radar. where Makati, Manila & Pasay meet. Near Makati CBD, Skyway stage 3 ext.
: Condo: Melbourne residences (9 floors)
5 / Santa Ana, Manila
: Where Manila, Makati, Mandaluyong & San Juan meet, nr. MMS-stage 3
: Condos : Manila Rivercity, Rivergreen
6 / Tandang Sora, Quezon City
: QC is metro-manila's largest city, being reinvented by Vertis North
: Condos: Zinnia Tower
7 / Chino Roces Ave, Makati
: Also known as as Pasong Tamo, near Makati CBD, Liitle Tokyo, food scene & lower prices
: Condos: San Lorenzo Place, Paseo de Roces; coming Fortis Gardens

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A new all time high for the condo units in NCR

 

http://www.bsp.gov.ph/statistics/keystat/rrepi.htm

 

Condo unit index NCR 122,3 Q1 2017 to 125,8 Q2 2017

Growth rate Q to Q: 2,9pct, -- that's almost 11pct on a yearly basis.

 

So much for the slow bursting of the property bubble.

It rather looks like the slowly inflating property bubble is unstoppable.

 

This is an indication that the secondary market is picking up,

and following the price rises of the primary market.

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A new all time high for the condo units in NCR

 

http://www.bsp.gov.ph/statistics/keystat/rrepi.htm

 

Condo unit index NCR 122,3 Q1 2017 to 125,8 Q2 2017

Growth rate Q to Q: 2,9pct, -- that's almost 11pct on a yearly basis.

 

So much for the slow bursting of the property bubble.

It rather looks like the slowly inflating property bubble is unstoppable.

 

This is an indication that the secondary market is picking up,

and following the price rises of the primary market.

 

I hope so, since I might want to sell one of my condos (an Avida unit) within a few months.

So I may soon be able to see how real these prices rises are.

 

Meantime, my agent friend at Shang says this about The Rise:

"

I am sending you our latest availability for The Rise Makati. As projected, we will still be having a 30% price increase until the turnover. There are 4% remaining for the foreigner buyers.
For the construction update we are at the 50th floor and we are about to top off by the end of 2016. "

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when calculating rental yield, should my cost include the other charges occured at turnover? is the treatment same for cash txns and those purchased through mortgage?

 

btw. this forum is great source of info. thanks. newbie here.

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Welcome to Makati Prime, you101.

Your questions are welcome

 

when calculating rental yield, should my cost include the other charges occured at turnover? is the treatment same for cash txns and those purchased through mortgage?

 

btw. this forum is great source of info. thanks. newbie here.

 

There are various ways to make the calculation,

But I would say, YES! include all costs involved in the purchase as part of your Capital Cost.

 

Essentially, YIELD is a ratio of...

 

Gross Yield = Rental agreed / Capital Cost

Net Yield = Rental received, net of ongoing cost / Capital Cost

 

After-Tax yield = Net Rent - tax on rental income / Capital Cost

 

A cash-on-cash return is ultimately what you want to calculated:

ie. what is your Net Cash return (after all expenses), compared with your total cost

 

Then you can calculated

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Uncomfortable?

Poll sees Oct. Inflation at three year high - Business World, pg1 headline, 11/6/2017

Median estimate for October is 3.5%

Estimate : # analysts

: 3.7 % : 1

: 3.6 % : 1

: 3.5 % : 5

: 3.4 % : 3

: 3.3 % : 1

Likely main drivers: higher food, and transport costs.

Uptick in electricity, and petroleum products

MONEY remains easy in PH.

Last week, BW reported a year-on-year increase of 20%+ in lending.

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BMI sees property market growing 9.8% into 2026

 

The Philippine property market is forecast to grow at an annual average of 9.8 percent by 2026, among the fastest in Southeast Asia... thanks to strong market fundamentals, and a persistent housing shortage

 

+ Robust growth supported by private and public investment in real estate, commercial & industrial developments

+ The government intends to construct affordable housing to bridge a 5.7 million unit backlog

+ 30,000 residential housing permits were issues in Q2, a 24% increase over the prior year

+ Metro Manila/ National Capital Region, is expected to show stronger growth, at 10.3% pa, over 2018 to 2026

+ Growth may be tempered somewhat by an expected 50 basis points rise in rates by the end of 2018

+ For Office / non-residential, BMI expects 8.4 percent average growth for the same period

+ Manila's office vacancy rate of 2.4 percent is the lowest among major cities in Asia;

Colliers expects office demand to grow by 8 percent over the next year

===

(Summarizes article in today's Manila Times, pg. C2)

 

Experience has taught me that we sometimes need to take such optimistic forecasts with some caution,

but there is no doubt that the Demographics in the PH, are supportive of strong growth over the next decade.

10% pa would be one of the strongest growth rates in the world, nearly matching PH's unparallelled demographics

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http://www.colliers.com/-/media/files/marketing%20reports/3q2017_colliers_quarterly_residential.pdf

 

Everybody's favorite -- the Residential Market - is up 1pct QonQ in the 3rd Q of 2017, with rents down 1pct.

Vacancies are expected to rise to the midteens until mid-end 2018, then decline into single digits by the end of 2019.

 

That's it. No oversupply according to Colliers...

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http://www.colliers.com/-/media/files/marketing%20reports/3q2017_colliers_quarterly_residential.pdf

 

Everybody's favorite -- the Residential Market - is up 1pct QonQ in the 3rd Q of 2017, with rents down 1pct.

Vacancies are expected to rise to the midteens until mid-end 2018, then decline into single digits by the end of 2019.

 

That's it. No oversupply according to Colliers...

 

They were EXPECTING a 16% vacancy rate in Makati by the end of 2017.

I wonder if the explain what has happened with their forecast

I noted earlier this year that the actual vacancy situation was "tight" in my building, and another building on Chino Roces

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Banks see interest rates rising - Business World, pg 1, 11/14/17

INFLATION could hover close to four percent next year on the back of accelerating oil prices and tax-related adjustments.
... putting pressure on the BSP to raise rates
One economist mentioned in the article (Cuyenkeng of ING Bank) is forecasting inflation of 3.7% next year.

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