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Van

Van's Journal 2014

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I can't think that 2014 as the year to remember for trading with long tendencies to be honest. Maybe in the later final quarter of 2014.

 

It hasn't been easy to pick a winner.

 

Maybe on the market as a whole, depends how you judge it?

 

Personally started the year well with a good win on RST(around 16%) but smallish sized trade due to market bearishness, which had I carried on holding instead of... well see recent chart <_< Similar sized trades bought small wins on IOF(6%) and QPP(8%) but about wiped both those out with bottling TW, at a loss.

 

My year could have got tarnished with STGR, my conviction was battered with a 50% loss on a decent stake for me, but by the same token banked a nigh 4 year watch and wait on POWR for around 150% gain of slightly higher size around the same time, Confidence on markets and ability still bearish, traded the fear on GKP (around 16% gain) and IKA (27%), whilst took a very small (5%) hit on SLE.

 

My point being listening to bears has cost me, for aside from few trades and generally smaller stakes, my largest play of the year is OEX and at one point near doubled, when I finally added more it slipped back(still hold with 8.1p ave, so ok for now, hoovering around 9p), but lack of initial conviction ( bearish nerves?) yet again cost me profits.

 

So although I've not traded much, enough winners to offset losers, and somewhat up overall, i'm cursing being too bearish at times. Oh and still miffed missing builders bounce last year into this :rolleyes:

 

(Sorry Van hijacking your thread)

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(Sorry Van hijacking your thread)

 

No problemo! Always nice to hear someone else's thoughts, no matter how segwayed they are :)

 

My random thought of today:

 

"House Prices" & "Cliff" on the front pages of the papers. Althought not in the same headline... but that's only going to be a matter of time.

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No problemo! Always nice to hear someone else's thoughts, no matter how segwayed they are :)

 

My random thought of today:

 

"House Prices" & "Cliff" on the front pages of the papers. Althought not in the same headline... but that's only going to be a matter of time.

 

I didn;t see that (in HK), but I did see the news that triggered it.

Strangely, BDEV is rallying now.

Is the worst over... for a while?

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I didn;t see that (in HK), but I did see the news that triggered it.

Strangely, BDEV is rallying now.

Is the worst over... for a while?

Have you seen the BVS and PSN news last few days, aside from 2 members of the M.P.C voting for a increase in rates to 0.75 what's not to like about their figures and others in the sector including BDEV will likely mirror them.

 

B.t.w no position myself

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A great interview with a great man (Prof Tim Noakes):

 

- poor diet is the cause of poor health

- industry and big pharma are a part of the problem

- you live or die by what you eat

- in 10 years' time chemotherapy will be superceeded by glucose starvation

- it's impossible to resolve western debt problems without addressing healthcare, which means fundamentally changing the paradigms on what we eat

 

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I notice that Peter Schiff has called it a day on his daily radio programme.

I reckon the last bear and pretty much thrown in the towel by now..

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I notice that Peter Schiff has called it a day on his daily radio programme.

I reckon the last bear and pretty much thrown in the towel by now..

He says people aren't ready for change. And I think he is right - people are just interested in "ice bucket challenges", "Gallon Smashing", "Twerking", and "Harlem Shaking".

 

The people haven't had their toys taken away, give it a few more years. Although, I am starting to lose faith in humanity to see sense - it might take a hundred years.

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He says people aren't ready for change. And I think he is right - people are just interested in "ice bucket challenges", "Gallon Smashing", "Twerking", and "Harlem Shaking".

Well i've heard of the ice bucket thingy and confess to seeing it as innocent fun,albeit a waste of precious water for others. But the rest? Must live a very sheltered life in the middle of England!

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OK, this really looks as it a major turn could be at hand.

The FTSE & DAX look very sick now, at or below their 12-month lows.

 

FTSE YTD: -1.65%

DAX YTD: -5.73%

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UK supermarkets have taken a beating this year.

 

TSCO, MRW, SBRY are at decade-low prices.

 

I think it's a GREAT sector to be begin buying. One of the few sectors where you can find some value. People aren't going to stop buying food.

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UK supermarkets have taken a beating this year.

 

TSCO, MRW, SBRY are at decade-low prices.

 

I think it's a GREAT sector to be begin buying. One of the few sectors where you can find some value. People aren't going to stop buying food.

 

TSCO ... all data : 184.53 -2.17 : -1.16% // Volume: 13,551,890 / Yield: 10.98% P/E Ratio: 0.1531

 

Others : MRW / Morrisons :

 

TSCO_zps33a596c9.png

 

What's going on with these shares ?

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What's going on with these shares ?

 

Profit warnings, squeezed from above (Waitrose, M&S) and from below (Lidl etc).

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OffTopic:

Van,

Have you got an opinion on London City Island*?

Properties have gone on sale in HK this week

 

*image

93ab6698ec3b1a3444fba1c8f50a3d2efbe5d9d0

 

http://www.LondonCityIsland.com

 

The walking bridge leads to Canning Town station

 

Brochure : http://www.londoncityisland.com/brochures/city-island-brochure

 

City Island is a Ballymore project. They're building a "dramatic new cityscape" which they describe as a "mini-Manhattan", or in other words a lot of tall buildings. They claim it's "inspired by the landscape and heritage of the area", by which they mean the buildings will use colours that used to exist round here when there were shipyards. They plan "a swimming pool which will glow red", and so many gingko trees that "City Island will be a lush, almost exotic presence." And of course it's surrounded by water on almost all sides, which means it'll be all the more exclusive and easier to keep the riffraff out. Fancy buying in?

There's a website for potential purchasers, as you'd expect. A video leads viewers from central London to Leamouth where a swarm of coloured boxes land to create a stack of towers. We're offered a glimpse of the exclusive services that residents will be able to enjoy and take a glimpse inside a furnished apartment. City Island's location is showcased with a map that shows several local highlights, although most of Newham appears to be entirely attraction-free. The Driftwood Cafe and Fatboys Diner at Trinity Buoy Wharf appear high up the list, and righly so, although the photos fail to depict their less than luxurious surroundings. I laughed when I saw Chrisp Street Market in the top 10 - the photo shows a well-to-do woman buying vegetables, whereas the reality is considerably more downmarket. And there's a 144 page brochure you can flick through, either online or in glossy thick hardback form. A series of Shoreditch-style couples pose in effortlessly urban locations. The heritage, connectivity and creativity of the area are emphasised. Apartments are modern and spacious. Somebody can't spell "Trinity Bouy Wharf". By the end of the brochure you're being invited to pick your fixtures and fittings. And up front in chapter 1, Ballymore's chairman offers "A private island in London to call your own."

Because this isn't a development for local people. There's nothing for residents struggling on the nearby Aberfeldy Estate, nor will those on Newham's housing list be encouraged to move in. You discover this when you click on the tab to "register your interest". Five national options are presented, the first of which is a sales office in London UK. But none of the others is in Europe. There's Kuala Lumpur, there's Hong Kong, there's Singapore and there's Beijing, because Ballymore have made a very deliberate decision to target Far East purchasers.

==

> http://diamondgeezer.blogspot.hk/2013/10/london-city-island.html

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We are at peak London property prices imo. The asking prices bear NO relation to reality at all. It's pure kite-flying.

The people I know buying are very high-income, or friends sharing a mortgage with friends. The normal buyer has no chance at all.

 

The market is softening already.

http://www.thisismoney.co.uk/money/mortgageshome/article-2785306/London-house-prices-dive-time-nearly-four-years-says-Rics.html

 

 

OffTopic:

Van,

Have you got an opinion on London City Island*?

Properties have gone on sale in HK this week

 

*image

93ab6698ec3b1a3444fba1c8f50a3d2efbe5d9d0

 

http://www.LondonCityIsland.com

 

The walking bridge leads to Canning Town station

 

Brochure : http://www.londoncityisland.com/brochures/city-island-brochure

 

City Island is a Ballymore project. They're building a "dramatic new cityscape" which they describe as a "mini-Manhattan", or in other words a lot of tall buildings. They claim it's "inspired by the landscape and heritage of the area", by which they mean the buildings will use colours that used to exist round here when there were shipyards. They plan "a swimming pool which will glow red", and so many gingko trees that "City Island will be a lush, almost exotic presence." And of course it's surrounded by water on almost all sides, which means it'll be all the more exclusive and easier to keep the riffraff out. Fancy buying in?

There's a website for potential purchasers, as you'd expect. A video leads viewers from central London to Leamouth where a swarm of coloured boxes land to create a stack of towers. We're offered a glimpse of the exclusive services that residents will be able to enjoy and take a glimpse inside a furnished apartment. City Island's location is showcased with a map that shows several local highlights, although most of Newham appears to be entirely attraction-free. The Driftwood Cafe and Fatboys Diner at Trinity Buoy Wharf appear high up the list, and righly so, although the photos fail to depict their less than luxurious surroundings. I laughed when I saw Chrisp Street Market in the top 10 - the photo shows a well-to-do woman buying vegetables, whereas the reality is considerably more downmarket. And there's a 144 page brochure you can flick through, either online or in glossy thick hardback form. A series of Shoreditch-style couples pose in effortlessly urban locations. The heritage, connectivity and creativity of the area are emphasised. Apartments are modern and spacious. Somebody can't spell "Trinity Bouy Wharf". By the end of the brochure you're being invited to pick your fixtures and fittings. And up front in chapter 1, Ballymore's chairman offers "A private island in London to call your own."

Because this isn't a development for local people. There's nothing for residents struggling on the nearby Aberfeldy Estate, nor will those on Newham's housing list be encouraged to move in. You discover this when you click on the tab to "register your interest". Five national options are presented, the first of which is a sales office in London UK. But none of the others is in Europe. There's Kuala Lumpur, there's Hong Kong, there's Singapore and there's Beijing, because Ballymore have made a very deliberate decision to target Far East purchasers.

==

> http://diamondgeezer.blogspot.hk/2013/10/london-city-island.html

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Actually, it is selling like hotcakes here.

 

They sold over 60 flats before the showroom officially opened today.

Only one single 1BR flat was left when I had a look this Friday afternoon.

(the 3% discounts were eliminated for flats below GBP 400k, given the strong demand.)

The style of these highrise flats seems to appeal to Asia buyers - reminds them of home, perhaps

 

I have started a thread - so I can look back at this in some months time:

http://www.greenenergyinvestors.com/index.php?showtopic=19532

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