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Van's Journal 2014

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The Great Bull Market 2009 - 2014 is ending - for real.

 

Dow/SPX have now violated the last cyclical lows set back in December.

 

The shit is about to hit the fan.

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Probably

 

Tony C was talking about a Q1-Top over a year ago

 

The Top was easy to spot on this chart

 

efu.gif

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Good week to be long on PMs.

I am expecting much, much more upside.

 

Here is one commodity that has the potential to run and run.

Classic Weinstein Stage 2 breakout.

 

Capture.png

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Must be one side of a trade, cant see Soros just shipping in naked puts. Not very efficient

 

I'm shorting SPX and FTSE myself, but in a very small way.

Always dangerous to try to short a bull market that is making new highs.

 

Perhaps getting long volatility would be a much smarter way to play this? Buying VIX is a great risk/reward trade at these levels.

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I'm shorting SPX and FTSE myself, but in a very small way.

Always dangerous to try to short a bull market that is making new highs.

 

Perhaps getting long volatility would be a much smarter way to play this? Buying VIX is a great risk/reward trade at these levels.

VIX_zpsdb3d3e4f.png

 

Where do you think it's headed, and in what timeframe?

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Good week to be long on PMs.

I am expecting much, much more upside.

 

Here is one commodity that has the potential to run and run.

Classic Weinstein Stage 2 breakout.

 

Capture.png

 

Apparently driven by drought in Brazil.

(or just the market doing what it does imo)

 

http://online.wsj.com/news/articles/SB10001424052702304899704579390731427127724?mg=reno64-wsj&url=http%3A%2F%2Fonline.wsj.com%2Farticle%2FSB10001424052702304899704579390731427127724.html

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VIX_zpsdb3d3e4f.png

 

Where do you think it's headed, and in what timeframe?

 

No idea, really.. just that I see far more possible upside on that chart than possible downside, so long as you have patience then you are bound to catch one of the spike, and maybe even be lucky enough to catch a 2008-style event.

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Coffee finished up 11% for today.

 

Looking at another of the softs - If this drought in Brazil is the catalyst for a new bull market in Sugar, we could easily see that market double this year.

 

Long term chart has seen plenty of 50-100% years.

 

http://www.barchart.com/chart.php?sym=SBH14&style=technical&template=&p=MN&d=X&sd=&ed=&size=M&log=1&t=BAR&v=2&g=1&evnt=1&late=1&o1=&o2=&o3=&sh=100&indicators=&addindicator=&submitted=1&fpage=&txtDate=#jump

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I've had a look at this.

 

Coffee has broken out from the 4-week donchian channel on high volume- where a lot of American based CTA traders use as a buy signal. This does look good for coffee.

 

The CRB index has gapped up also, so I'll need to look at the other commodities (I note gold has perked up) to see if this is a significant change across the commodity board.

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Been thinking a lot in the last week or so about how to maximize my tax efficiency. A significant chunk of our modern economy is founded upon the premise of help large corporations surrender as little money as possible to HRM's corrupt ponzi scheme.

 

When you think about, most of us who work hard to improve our lot put so much time comparatively into improving our skills to make ourselves more valuable and improve our earning capacity, yet don't have the nou to consider how best to keep as much of what we earn as possible. Brain fade? Or just another example of the brightest and best still thinking only inside the box?

 

Turns out that I'm pretty tax efficient already, but this is definitely a topic that deserves its own thread. We should be striving to do on a individual level what Google and Amazon do on a business level.

 

More to follow..

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Getting ready for the next Big Short?

 

FTSE 100 (UKX ) ... update

 

UKX.gif

=

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TAX EFFICIENCY?

 

Owning your own home is one of the very best ways.

 

Check out the taxes on Capital Gains.

A big profit on a 3-6 months Put option might also be tax efficient

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Almost all food prices are moving higher.

Look for inflation to make a "surprise" leap

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TAX EFFICIENCY?

 

Owning your own home is one of the very best ways.

 

Check out the taxes on Capital Gains.

A big profit on a 3-6 months Put option might also be tax efficient

 

I've put my thoughts down in the Pensions thread:

http://www.greenenergyinvestors.com/index.php?showtopic=15474&p=290335

 

Extreme? certainly. But I see very little downside.

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I got shaken out of it a while ago, but that Coffee trade is now 90% for the year. I'm expecting that this is the sort of action we will see in PMs when there is a catalyst put under it.

 

Here's another commodity that is on the verge of a breakout:

 

Capture.jpg

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Some very good trading wisdom here:

 

http://www.greenbergcapital.com/blog/trading-rule-1-leave-your-ego-at-the-door/

 

Trading Tip #1 – Leave your ego at the door.
Trading Tip #2 – Test and test often
Trading Tip #3 – If You Hear the Word “Hope”
Trading Tip #4 – Being Able to Admit When You’re Wrong
Trading Tip #5 – Never Add to a Losing Position. Except…
Trading Tip #6 – Hit the bid –Take the Offer and Just Do the Trade!!!
Trading Tip #7 – Never Trade in Pain
Trading Tip #8 – Recovering After Getting Your Butt Kicked.
Trading Tip #9 – Trading Styles: Do Not Have Just One
Trading Tip #10 – Having a Bad Streak? Try This …

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