GOLD - GEI's Favorite Gold-related Charts (post yours here)

[drbubb]

GOLD - GEI's Favorite Charts - post yours here / http://tinyurl.com/GEI-Gold

 

(After some months - we can look back, and see how useful these Charts were.)

 

/ Current Favorite chart / ===============================================================================

- from May 11, 2014 :

 

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LINK / to this thread : http://tinyurl.com/GEI-Gold

[drbubb]

Chart #1:

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Gold : "The K-series Chart"

A familiar pattern?

I think so - just look at it !

GOLD chart: 1980-2000 correction, vs. 2011-2013:

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If you believe in Fractal patterns, Gold may have just made an Important Low.

The low this month after a two year correction has a very similar pattern with the long correction from 1980 ($850) to 2001 ($250).

Is history repeating ?

Of particular similarity is:

+ Waves c-d-e-f : "the box", where d and f are about the same level

+ Wave-f : is the "mid-correction peak" !

+ Wave-g : holds above the c and e lows

+ Wave-h : the "last gasp" rally

+ Wave-i : the slide into: The Low at "i"

+ Wave-j : a small rally

+ Wave-k : Retest Low (at a level just higher than wave-i)

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If this pattern is repeating, Gold is now on/near the Retest Low

[drbubb]

Chart #2:

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GLD's Weekly Chart .... ALL Data : 5 years : 3yr-W : 3yr-D : 2yr-D : 6mos-D

MA series : x1.618:

weeks: 12.3, 19.9, 32, 52, 84, 136, 220, 356, 576

[drbubb]

Chart #3:

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Dow Jones Industrial Average Priced in GOLD

Update

/see GEI's Gold thread, or: http://www.greenenergyinvestors.com/index.php?showtopic=17200

[drbubb]

About the "Gold, K-structure" chart....

 

 

That's quite uncanny.

 

If you consider the fractal nature, that one pattern occurs over 2 decades, and the other over 2 years, then this suggests that if the pattern continues as a fractal of the longer term structure, this means gold will go past $1800 in the next 6 months, and triple to £3600 within 12 months.

 

Exactly !

It is Fractal - but the correction is at a different scale, that's why it is shorter.

 

However, the same psychological process has been at work (getting fed up with gold)

 

As for the price targets, if a Rally does take off from here, I will await some more price moves,

before creating my own targets.

[drbubb]

A DECOUPLING for Gold ?

Could this be a sign that the LOW is now in ??

 

It's a mugs game calling gold and two years of falling prices means that even the diehard bulls have recently warned of another selloff to $1150 per ounce.

 

For most of 2013 the bears have been out in full and analyst forecasts now range between $1050-$1250 for 2014. Not that analyst forecasts mean anything anymore as this same group had a mean forecast of $1950 for 2012 when gold peaked on the 6th of September 2011 at $1,895 per ounce. What is really interesting is that it is now consensus that gold will break below $1200 as the economic news continues to improve in the US and tapering begins. Weirdly the strong employment numbers last Friday saw gold actually trade up and continue to do so on Monday and aggressively on Tuesday

 

> source: xx (email)

 

 

Until the "k" point was reached in the last few days,

Those predicting a Gold turnaround did not have the full fractal on their side.

 

Within this week (while the USD was also a touch weak), we have:

 

D# :Gold$/oz -GLD- Chg.: volume : -WTI- : - DXY- : - GDX - : GDXJ- :

06 : 1,228.2 : 118.55 ----------------- : $97.82* 80.256 : $20.66 : $28.89 :

09 : 1,240.3 : 119.72 +1.17: 5.46 M : $97.20* 80.161 : $21.21 : $29.69 :

10 : 1,262.1 : 121.82 +2.10: 9.09 M : $98.66* 79.982 : $22.03 : $30.90 :

=== ====== : ========== : ====== : ===== : ===== : ======: ======:

Tu.: +1.75% : + 1.75% ----- : +66.5% :+1.50%: -0.22%:+3.87%: +4.08%:

2d.: +2.76% : + 2.76% ----- : +====% :+0.86%: -0.34%:+6.63%: +6.96%:

[Perishabull]

Chart #4

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Sentiment at end of November

[drbubb]

Chart #5

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DOLLAR STORM Ahead ?

No wonder gold seems to be putting in a bottom

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UUP is the 2X etf for the US Dollar.

 

The long term chart is "not pretty" as Jim Sinclair has reported ... update

 

 

Back in Q2-2013 the USD and UUP were rallying, the UUP briefly poked above the yellow 987d MA (a key Fibo number),

 

But the blue 76d MA never made it above that - so the reversal to a Bull market was not confirmed.

 

The Key MA HELD, and the UUP-Dollar etf may now be starting a free-fall.

 

There are no signs of PANIC yet, since volume on the UUP is still modest. Is Panic far away ??

 

WHAT WE HAVE SEEN :

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+ Germany asked for its gold back, and was told it would take 7 years

+ A slide in Gold prices was "engineered" (perhaps to allow some gold shorts to cover)

+ China has recently said it will CAP its dollar holdings

+ China and other countries are moving to trade in non-dollar currencies

+ Economists like Lawrence Kotlikoff are talking about the unsustainable deficits

[drbubb]

IMPACT of Price Momentum and Western Gold Traders

 

 

Dr Bubb. Something has been bothering me about GLD for a while.

How do you explain this decline relative to the other ETF's (this from November - decline since then puts it at 1353 tonnes -> 835 tonnes; decline >38%.

I personally didn't look into it because I would not trust an ETF (with short interest, Authorised Participants etc.), but it does raise the question of :

 

WHY did GLD sell 40% of it's bars? (The Gold price has not dropped 40% YTD; more like 20-25% )

 

 

My explanation may not be satisfactory to you : But is simple enough...

 

Since at least Feb. 2013 being LONG GOLD was the wrong side of the momentum trade.

A big highlight was when GLD broke below the 480 day MA on Feb. 11th, 2013 .

And that break was confirmed in Mar.12th when the 76d-MA broke the 480d-MA... update

 

 

I chroniciled the importance of that 480 day / 100 week MA in an interview with Dominic Frisby on Feb. 7th, 2013:

MP3 : http://media48.podbean.com/pb/e5c822a5a0115f9212e54175bb91a21e/52a95913/data1/blogs1/2516/uploads/2013-02-06-GMY-DF-E-96.mp3

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"Hampton makes the case that the gold price is currently marking a low in its long-term bull run. While there is a chance that the trend channel could be broken to the downside, the odds favour a continuation of the upward trend..."

(I was wrong about the upside being more likely. The downside break proved very important.)

 

(Jump to: xx mins)

I Don't think I was the only one tracking this MA. 100 weeks is a pretty obvious period to watch.

A break of it, gave Goldman the ammunition it needed to spook the market into pushing Gold through the

possible Double Bottom a month later on April 12th, 2013. Momentum traders in Hedge Funds are

influenced more by these trends-in-place than they are by fundamental arguments.

 

Over the last 11 1/2 months, GLD has shed a great deal of Gold :

 

==DATE==: Gold price : GLD-pr.: Ratio : Tonnes: Ounces Held :

08/22/2011 : $1,877.50 : $184.59 : 10.17 :

12/30/2011 : $1,574.50 : $151.99 : 10.36 :

12/31/2012 : $1,664.00 : $162.02 : 10.27 : 1,351.0 : 43.44 Million

12/11/2013 : $1,254.10 : $120.86 : 10.38 : 833.61 :: 26.80 Million

=========

2013 Chg.-- : $0,409.90 : $041.16 : 09.96 : 517.39 :: 16.64 Million /9.33

----- Pct.Chg.: -- 24.63% : -25.40% : ==== : - 55.45 :: 1.78 Million oz.

----- per mo. : -- $43.93 : --- $4.41 : 09.96 :

Keep in mind that annual production of Gold is about 86 Million ounces, or 7.1 million oz./month.

So GLD's shedding of an average of 1.78 per month is about 25% of global production.

 

Through 2013, China has kept buying, enjoying the lower prices. In effect, they have hovered up all the Gold sold by GLD.

(The buying happened mainly through Hong Kong, and so it was tracked.) China also bought virtually the whole of its own production of 403 mt (= 13 million oz.) The combined total of these two buying streams is about 34 Million oz. or 40% of World production.

That shows a strong hunger by China to own gold.

[drbubb]

Chart #6

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The Dow-to-Gold Ratio

 

 

I am not wedded to any of these lines, but I think the "easy part" of the rally in Dow-to-Gold may be ending

 

==== : High.pr : Dec.12 ==== ( chart above: thanks to Warpig, on the GOLD thread )

INDU : 16,174 : 15,739 :

Gold-: $1,210 : $1,225 :

Ratio : r 13.37 : r 12.85 :

NOTE: The latest high (13.21) is higher than the late June high (12,56).

So the Ratio may have hit the top of the light green channel I drew in the top chart

 

=

[drbubb]

Chart #7

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Very Long term chart - but needs updating

 

[drbubb]

Chart #8

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Think that chart above was long term?

Here are Long Term Gold prices - in Pounds Sterling: ... clean version

 

> source: http://www.zerohedge.com/news/charting-price-gold-all-way-back-1265

 

It looks like we are headed back into a period of extreme volatility.

How long will it last? Decades, maybe?

 

Gold-in-Pounds DID keep flying in 2011, and eventually hit over GBP 1,200 per ounce.

A 38.2% retracement from #1,200 would take it to GBP 750 /oz. - and we have seen that !

 

Here's Gold-in-FXB (etf for Sterling): GBP 748 per Ounce : $1,210 / $161.8 (ie $1.618)

 

[drbubb]

Chart #9

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Has gold just done a double bottom?

 

(I received this Gold-Ewave chart by email prior to Christmas, and now have permission to post it on GEI):

 

 

/source- Geoff-Sutton : larger version

 

See (above) for a weekly chart of gold. The reason I am sending it is that Gold may have just done a truncated Wave 5 which has also produced a double bottom.

If 5 to A is Wave 1, it lasted 16 weeks and if D to E finished on Thursday and is a Wave 5, then that move was also 16 weeks in duration so they are equal in time.

Projecting Wave 1 onto point D, the 0.618 extension of Wave 1 is 1187.9 and gold made a low on Thursday evening of 1186.9. I am sure there are plenty of alternative interpretations, but it is a possibility that we have just had a double bottom. If it holds at this level, then presumably we have the Chinese to thank. Of course, if the price moves below Thursday’s low and then 1180, then this interpretation goes out the window.

Merry Christmas

[drbubb]

Chart #10

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50% is another Good Elliott wave Relationship

 

[drbubb]

Chart #11

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Gold is bouncing off key support

 

(these are "my trendlines"):

 

Tony Caldaro thinks we may have just seen the "A" wave of an A-B-C down - with Primary B to come ?

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>Tony-C: http://caldaro.wordpress.com/2014/01/03/gold-then-and-now/

 

. We have a completed Major A @ $1524, a completed Major B @ $1798, and potentially a completed Major C @ $1181 at the December low. Should this be correct we could now witness a 38.2% retracement of the entire first decline, ($1924-$1179), into the $1460 area over the next 3-8 months. This would represent a $280 rise. Which is also similar to the $220+ rises of Primary B and Primary X during the last bear market. “History often repeats, but is never exactly the same.”

You can follow Gold along with us using this link:

http://stockcharts.com/public/1269446/tenpp/10.

[BertGreen]

This looks like MY sort of Website.

Perhaps you would like these Gold charts

 

 

 

 

- Bert Green, Energy Investor

[drbubb]

Thanks.

It is worth keeping in mind, Gold's long term position - this needs updating

 

 

Updated Real Gold price :

partly-update

 

? ? ?

 

This may be the underlying driver

 

[notanewmember]

I have two simple charts;

 

 

^Gold needs to clear $1700 in the next 3 months to start a new uptrend.

 

 

^The Gold/Dow ratio - look how extended it is from the yellow moving average. The trend has changed at the start of 2013. There are two possibilities - we will not see a gold 1-1 ratio or we will, and gold will rise and the stock market is due a correction soon!

[drbubb]

Not Gold - but I need to save these here - inspired partly by S.D. Morton's comments: SU.cast, at 22 minutes and beyond

Falling Stocks could help Gold...

 

INDU / Dow Jones Industrial Average ... update : from-1999

 

 

From-1999

 

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[drbubb]

According to a famous trader of the past, W. D. Gann: “Time is more important (in markets), than price; when time is up, price will reverse.”

It has now been 29 months since gold last reached a new high in its current bull market cycle. The downtrend lasted 22 months (top to bottom), having bottomed on June 28 2013 at $1180. Confirmation of the bottom came on Dec 31 when gold briefly touched $1182, and left behind a double bottom, see chart #3.

There have been two other corrections that lasted 6 months or more, from top to bottom: In 2006 gold declined for 6 months, and in 2008 the pullback took 8 months to bottom.

Thus a 22 month down-cycle qualifies under the Gann definition as ‘time is up’.

Historical Life of Gold Stock Bear markets / source:

=

[drbubb]

"Hyper-Gold" what's that?

 

Maybe the name is misleading, but what I do is take the GOLD price and divide it DXY - the Trade-weighted USD

 

Like this:

 

Gold : $1318.10

USD : 79.470 - also DXY in some other systems

Ratio : 16.59

 

Chart

 

This should be a useful measure, since it will tend to show how expensive Gold looks to trading partners of the US.

 

Recently, Gold has been rising as the Dollar has been falling, giving the upthrust a "hyper" aspect

 

If the Gold price is going to go into a new long term Bull market, it will need to break about that downtrend

[drbubb]

MULTIPLE Tops in "Dollar-Alternatives" : ... update chart

 

 

# Peak in ---- : 6/26/06 : Peak - Timing- : to Peak/ $-Low : Timing-- : Drop % / $-Now : Chg.%
1 - SLV / Silver : $10.32 : $46.88- 04/29/11 : +354% / $18.45- 01/31/14 : - 60.6% / $18.80 : - 59.9%
2 - FXE / Euro. : 125.97 : 147.74- 05/02/11 : +017% / 127.13- 05/17/13 : - 14.0% / 137.52 : - 06.9%
3 - FXF / SwFr : $80.45 : 136.78- 08/09/11 : +072% / 100.42- 05/22/13 : - 26.6% / 111.92 : - 18.2%
4 - GLD / Gold : $58.28 : 182.90- 09/06/11 : +214% / 115.39- 12/30/13 : - 36.9% / 125.98 : - 31.1%

 

I think this "multiple peaks" chart is pretty interesting.
It is run off Weekly closes. If I go back and do another chart using Daily closes, it will look a bit different.

 

One thing that jumped out at me in the data table was this - Targets generated from Fibonacci relationships:

 

Price: I-day High - Timing : x Fibo% : Target / Act.Low - Timing
===
SLV : $47.98 - 04/29/11: x 38.2% = $18.32 / $18.26 - 12/31/13
GLD : 185.85 - 09/06/11: x 61.8% = 114.85 / 114.46 - 12/31/13
FXE : 151.27 - 11/25/09: x 78.6% = 118.90 / 119.73 - 07/24/12, earlier low: 118.79- 06/08/10

[drbubb]

TWO GOLD CHARTS

 

Long term versus Debt ... image : source / Apr.2014

 

Gold versus Gardening

 

> thread : http://www.greenenergyinvestors.com/index.php?showtopic=16127

[drbubb]

I simplifed the above chart, and created this one

 

- May 11, 2014:

 

I think it is Time to call a Turn "by the end of July 2014"

 

- so I have set up a new Blog on WordPress, to capture Highlights from the DrBubb Diary:

 

LINK: http://goldedge.wordpress.com