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Financial crash? : 2017-18 peak / lasting until 2020 -21 ?

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Understanding money and prices


This article explains the money side of prices, and why government currencies, unbacked by gold, are doomed to collapse. And why gold, which is the sound money chosen by markets throughout history, will retain or increase its purchasing power measured in the goods it buys over the coming years.

Very few people have a full understanding of the relationship between money and goods. This is the relationship that sets prices. Yet, without that understanding, central banks will almost certainly fail in their policy objectives (as they always have done so far), and individuals unaware of gold’s monetary properties will be unable to protect their wealth in monetary and financial conditions that are becoming increasingly unstable.




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Pure Price Analysis

Every couple of weeks I get together with my friend, Paul Rodriguez, and we chat about the markets. Paul is an old City hand who was formerly a proprietary trader and technical analyst for NatWest Bank. He now teaches seminars so that private investors can become familiar with technical analysis, via his business, ThinkTrading.com.

The beauty of technical analysis is that it focuses purely on price. Everything else that constitutes what we can call fundamental analysis - assessments of global macro-economic conditions, the likely future path of interest rates, or currencies, or central bank policy, or market direction - is entirely subjective. But the one true constant in financial markets is the price: an objective and indisputable fact decided between two parties during free and unfettered exchange. The price isn't necessarily right (only the future will determine that); but its history is undeniable, and it's the closest thing that financial markets have to a universal constant. Everything else, and I mean everything, is subjective. But the price is the price.

When I last spoke with Paul, at the end of last week, his view was that the major equity markets seem to be in the process of "rolling over". That is to say, they are demonstrating some significant weakness after something like eight years of enjoying a more or less unbroken rally.

In short, Paul suspects that what he calls "the mother of all tops" (MOAT) may be upon us. He cited the chart history of Apple stock as one of the more iconic of our time. Apple, one of the so-called FANG stocks, is starting to display some significant technical weakness.

I respect Paul's opinion hugely, so I will be watching the major equity indices like a hawk over the next few weeks.

The other concern has to be over bond markets. My own view (fundamental, I should add) is that judging from the basis of price action across the major bond markets of the world, debt traders are tearing themselves apart trying to work out what might be happening. Price action is distinctly choppy, but within the context of rising yields (ie lower bond prices). These sort of choppy, sideways markets are, in my view, often symptomatic of a huge trend reversal in the making. And the long term trend for interest rates has been down, not just for the past eight years even, but for the past 35 years. There is nobody working inside a dealing room or hedge fund today that has experienced a period of sustained higher interest rates. Meanwhile, the policy chiefs at the major central banks are clearly arguing amongst their own monetary policy committees about the future direction of policy rates. That debate has become red-hot at our own Bank of England, which is showing all the unity and decorum of a pack of hyenas arguing over a fresh kill.

In short, I see growing evidence of "disturbance in the force" – in stock markets, and more particularly in bonds. Given that interest rates are at their lowest levels for 5,000 years, now might be a good time to consider building a cash reserve and trimming one's more aggressive risk holdings. I think it's going to be a long hot summer. And not necessarily one of love for stock or bond market investors.

Sinkholes in China

Meanwhile, Chinese stocks have been added to one of the world’s largest indices: the MSCI emerging markets index. Even without the rise in low cost index tracking ETFs, this would result in billions of pension and sovereign wealth funds pouring into the Chinese market. Will this end well for investors?

Put it this way: the fund I manage has an entirely unconstrained global mandate. We can invest virtually anywhere.

Our current exposure to China: 0%.

We find no value there. The Chinese have negligible corporate governance, which has let cowboys and conmen slink into the market.

There is already talk of the Chinese bonds being included into mainstream global indices. I’ve written extensively on bonds and China before - yet more money pouring into a bloated and perilous arena will not end well.

It’s tense in the Middle East… again

The isolation of Qatar by Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, Egypt and the United Arab Emirates continues. Qatar, a major oil nation was accused of funding terrorist groups by Saudi Arabia. This funding allegedly took the form of hostage ransoms.


The four countries, mediated by Kuwait sent Qatar an ultimatum which Qatar have since ignored, which demanded among other things that Qatar shut down Al Jazeera, the hugely popular TV station and severing all ties with Iran. A diplomatic, naval and air blockade has been set up stifling exports, which Qatar has tried to counter by amping up their natural gas production capacity.


Saudi Arabia has prevented transactions in Qatari riyals () or dealings in Qatari treasuries being facilitated in their banks. This has caused liquidity in the currency to dry up, leading to many currency exchanges here in the UK like RBS and the Post Office to stop exchanging the currency.


The Iranians are openly backing Qatar, as are the Turks.


Things are getting ugly.

Gold goes down the drain… a bit

Last week, an anonymous market participant on the New York futures exchange dumped 1.8 million troy ounces (almost 56 thousand kilos) of gold onto the market... in less than a minute. This giant £1.7 billion flash sale only moved down the price by 1% however, an impressive testament to the kind of damage the gold market can absorb. Whether or not this was deliberate, or another “fat finger” trade by a novice is anyone’s guess. But now is certainly not the time to join in the selling – geopolitical risk continues to abound; the North Korea situation alone poses a significant threat to global stability. Just this morning Trump said he is considering “some pretty severe things” in response to Korea’s missile test on Independence day. Of course this could turn out to be nothing.


And it’s not just abroad that political debate is darkening. This article by Dan Hodges illustrates very well the kind of vicious opportunism being displayed by politicians here at home.


Finally, here are a couple of gems I’ve enjoyed recently:


Read this: a brilliant description on “the inevitability of insanity among sane people”, and how financial market bubbles are only ever agreed to have been bubbles in retrospect.


And this as well: why only gold and silver should be money, and why Central banking elites and governments just don’t get it.


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Makes sense to me


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Having said all that now that Trump and Putin appear to get on well we could see markets become positive as the threat of conflict eases, who knows, but just delaying the inevitable reset

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(VIDEO) More Cash Is Exiting The Bond Market, And Stocks Plunge. By Gregory Mannarino




Yeah. But where is the "plunge"?



03: 242.21 +0.41 35.0M: 11.22 : 21.48 - 0.60 : 116.09 - 1.93 11.7M: 1219.2 $47.07: $96.15 +0.51 : 124.46 - 0.40/ 00, 023 : 000, 0,250


05: 242.77 +0.56 48.4M: 11.07 : 21.76 +0.28 : 116.52 +0.43 7.01M: 1221.7 $45.13: $96.27 +0.12 : 124.49 +0.03/ 09, 032 : 000, 0,550

06: 240.54 -2.23 00.0M: 13.54 : 21.49 - 0.27 : 116.47 - 0.05 00.0M: 1223.3 $45.52: 95.57 - 0.70 : 123.46 - 1.03/

07: 242.11 +1.57 45.7M: 11.19 : 21.21 - 0.28 : 115.28 - 1.19 10.8M: 1209.7 $44.23: 95.79 +0.22 : 122.72 - 0.74/ 00, 036 : 000, 0,800



SPY hovers at 242, near the High. No actual plunge yet

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Post can be found on DollarVigilante.com



Central planning is only good for two things. Poverty and comedy.


The stories from the Soviet Union central planners are just that. They caused abject poverty for hundreds of millions of people AND created hilarious stories about shortages of such things as right shoes. The claim was that two factories were set up, one to make left shoes, and one to make right shoes. But when the factories started in production it was discovered that both were making left shoes creating a massive shortage of right shoes.


When central planning is involved get ready for starving people and laughs galore!


Many people used to blame the poor economy in the Soviet Union, not on central planning, but on alcoholism. Forget for the moment whether people drank a lot because the economy was so bad… or if their drinking made the economy bad.


Alcoholism was an often fronted explanation for why things were so bad in the Soviet Union.


And now we have the US, or the USSA, as I call it, which has become massively centrally planned and is now a mix between communist and fascist.


And, the politburo Chief for the central planning agency of the economy, the Federal Reserve, Janet Yellen, has come out and blamed the poor US economy on opiate addiction!


Again, forget for the moment whether people may be taking opiates because the economy is so bad… and not vice versa.


And, forget for the moment that slurring Janet always sounds like she has just taken a handful of oxycontin.




In Yellen's testimony before the Senate Banking Committee, she mentioned that there has been a major "decline in labor force participation among prime-age workers as a result of opioid abuse."


Now, of course there is a major problem with opioid and heroin addiction in the US thanks to the pharmaceutical industry getting innocent people hooked on highly addictive pain medication while outlawing the pain medications that work best and are much safer such as cannabis and kratom.


But the drugs dealt to the unwitting public by drug dealers in white lab coats, called doctors, are not the root of the problem in the US economy - the problem is the central bank and the communist-style central planning that comes with it.


And, the Federal Reserve's policy of free money and low to zero interest rates for nearly a decade now has done far more damage than the pharmaceutical industrial complex than to the economy.


And, what did Janet have to say about raising rates a modicum?


Well, according to her, having raised the rates to a lofty 1% level, that should be good enough.


Remember, I've been saying since 2010 that the Fed will never raise rates a substantial amount ever again. The reason being that US government debt is so massive now that a rise of above 5% will all but bankrupt the country. And I continue to be proven right.


The main item CONgress wanted to question Janet on was on "auditing" the Federal Reserve.


Janet put up resistance as all central planners do. Especially the central planner of the central bank that all but controls the government.


She pointed out that the Fed is already the most transparent of all central banks, and that is actually, sadly, true.


Regardless, we already know what it is the Fed is doing. We know it is a taxpayer funded backstop for a fraudulent fractional reserve banking system. We know it writes a blank check to government and its cronies. We know how it suppresses interest rates artificially, and we know why it has to open its mouth about everything under the sun.


Ultimately, a mere audit of the Fed is futile because it's just that, an audit. Instead, the Federal Reserve, like all central banks, should be abolished entirely.


The Federal Reserve and CONgress are the two biggest reasons why the US economy is faltering and why it will soon completely collapse. Yet, they meet, and come to the conclusion that the reason things are getting bad is because of drugs!


The only thing of value that came from the whole affair was the man sitting behind Yellen who flashed his free market "Buy Bitcoin" sign before the state controlled propaganda media could pan away.


The US government is bankrupt and the Federal Reserve is out of bullets to do anything. Now we just await the collapse of the system.


Janet Yellen has just proclaimed we'll never see a financial crisis in our lifetime. When a central banker says that you can almost bet everything you've got that we'll have a financial crisis within weeks or months.


Make sure you are prepared by subscribing to The Dollar Vigilante (TDV) newsletter HERE.



Anarcho-Capitalist. Libertarian. Freedom fighter against mankind's two biggest enemies, the State and the Central Banks. Jeff Berwick is the founder of The Dollar Vigilante and host of the popular video podcast, Anarchast. Jeff is a prominent speaker at many of the world's freedom, investment and cryptocurrency conferences including his own, Anarchapulco, as well as regularly in the media including CNBC, Bloomberg and Fox Business. Jeff also posts exclusive content daily to the new blockchain based social media network, Steemit.




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RMR - "V" goes LIVE on Coast to Coast AM (07/21/2017)

Streamed live on Jul 21, 2017

"V" delivers an awesome two hour interview on Coast to Coast AM.

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Will Clif get it right this time?


"An intense two months... then, a lull; then five years..."


We Are Crashing Now – Clif High


Published on 5 Aug 2017

When is the crash coming? Internet data mining expert Clif High says, “We are crashing now. That’s the problem. We may not have a big crash down, but we are crashing now in the form of the crack up boom. . . . When your currency is dying, and we saw this with the greenback (after the Civil War), the currency went into this brief burst of hyperinflation and then no one would touch it. So, we are getting into a period right now where we are seeing the hyperinflation of our dollar. Technically, you could see the Dow go up to 30,000, 40,000 or 50,000, and it will be as meaningless as those numbers might suggest. At the same time, we might see Bitcoin in the neighborhood of $13,800 by February of next year, and that is just the start. That’s when we launch the crypto explosion into the USA population and society, and that’s February of next year. Prior to that, it’s like the orchestra tuning up.”

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allen kimble says:

Looks like you’re a fan of Martin Armstrong?

I suggest you listen to him on the coming correction/scare(this fall) and then the slingshot higher thereafter. I hope you’d change your losing short position after this.

I’m confused. Armstrong’s business cycle shows a peak (in November 2017?) and then a big decline all the way in 2020. How do you read the slingshot higher and when will it be?

I have trouble understanding the Armstrong charts.

Thanks in advance,


allen kimble says:

Hi Joseph,

Martin Armstrongs cycles are not used to be in 100% correlation with the stock market, even though the last crisis(2007-2008)did. According to Martin. Late 2015 was a turning point in people around the world starting to wake up and distrust government. Thus people will be putting their money into private assets (stocks) to shield themselves from the impending government downtrend. Again, according to Martin, in order to start the “REAL” bubble in assets prices there must be a fake move down. That fake move down appears to be some time this fall. After the fake move there should be a slingshot move higher created by the energy from the down move. So in conclusion his thesis is that once government starts to crack, bond yields from around the world will go higher as investors start to flee these instruments in fear governments might collapse. In turn the stock market will go for awhile until it’s unsustainable and then they have to sell private assets(stocks..etc)to maintain or satisfy margin calls. Then…and only then will this time be met with a massive crash. After the bubble rise.

Now……This is what should happen but things have a strange way of just never crashing….banks get bailout…people are continuing buying government debt…etc……Even Martin says it might be delayed until 2030. Tricky..tricky…as always lol

  • tony caldaro says:

    The 2030’s fit precisely with our work.
    The Protest secular cycle, like the late-1960’s to early-1980’s.
    Rising inflation, rising rates, distrust of gov’t big time, and nearly two decades of sideways stock markets.

    • mjtplayer says:

      Tony, according to Martin, the next crisis will be 2018-2020, a monetary crisis in Europe. This is the beginning of the loss of confidence in government. Europe first, the US last closer to 2032

  • Perfect! Thanks so much for explaining that well Allen.I could never get that from the small bits and snippets I heard/read from Armstrong before, likely because I only had access to disconnected bits. This clears it up for me. Now I only need the actual times


> comments from Tony Caldero's Blog: https://caldaro.wordpress.com/2017/08/31/thursday-update-596/#comments

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Currencies up as much as 14% (EUR) against the USD from the year-end 2016 Low


FX-All : 2017 : 2016-17 : 2015-17 : 2014-17 : 2013-17 : since 2010 : w/MA's : since 2006 :



FX-All : 2013-17 :


since 2010 : w/MA's :


since 2006 :



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Tony C's stock comment - excerpt


MEDIUM TERM: uptrend

This Minor wave 5 uptrend has been unfolding in five Minute waves. Minute wave i rose from SPX 2329 – 2454, with five Micro waves (orange). Then after a Minute ii decline to SPX 2408 in July, Minute iii was underway. Thus far Minute iii has advanced in three Micro waves (orange) from SPX 2408-2558. And is already longer than all of Minute i, with still Micro waves 4 and 5 to go.


Currently, however, there is a negative RSI divergence setup. Similar setups have occurred during all the Micro wave highs of this uptrend. Will the market again ignore this one and grind higher. Or is the elusive 20+ pullback next? This uptrend has relentlessly grinder higher at times. Medium term support is at the 2525 and 2479 pivots, with resistance at the 2575 and 2594 pivots.


> more: https://caldaro.wordpress.com/2017/10/14/weekend-update-626/



JK1987 says:

BARRON’S Echoes of The 1987 Crash

...is deadly wrong. it certainly will not be parallel to 1987 Crash. 1987 Crash was one of its kind, never before. this 2017 Crash, will be one of its kind, never before.
the environments are different, 1987 was Reagan, and inflationary economy, and went for another 13 years booming into 2000.
here 2017 is Trump, going into deflationary economy, market, and turmoil.
Margaret Atwood: “it’s a moment of turmoil everywhere” Published on Saturday, October 14, 2017

stock, rates, bonds are totally different between 2017 and 1987.

better analogies are:

the path will be different, but the outcomes are the same. SPX down 80% ~ 90%
the path could be even worst than the two examples.
your opinion or my opinion of the market do not matter. important is to know what computer algorithm will do. what will trigger the sell, and avalanche. i studied all crashes and possible technical causes, did you?
1987 was computer driven, and many more crashes were algorithm driven.
now computer, AI are far more advance, sophisticated. scale of money involved is far larger, in terms of trillion dollar.
that means the avalanche will be in much greater velocity.
spx sub 1800 still is highly probable by end of this October.
spx will see very far below 1800 by 2017 year end.

an increasing amount of money is being devoted to rules-based investing. Quantitative strategies now account for $933 billion in hedge funds, according to HFR, up from $499 billion in 2007. And there’s some $3 trillion in index ETFs, which are, by definition, rules-based. The upshot: Trillions of dollars are now being invested by computers. “We’ve never seen so many investment decisions driven by quantitative systems,” says Morningstar analyst Tayfun Icten.


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Financial red lights are flashing - again


Niall Ferguson says that, based on the similarity between present conditions and those before the 2008 Great Recession, there is reason to believe another global slowdown is on the way

In June 2006, I observed that interest rate increases by the US Federal Reserve would sooner or later effect heavily indebted American households. In November 2006, I argued that the developed world might end up in the same mess as Japan since the 1990s, fending off deflation with monetary and fiscal expedients and stagnating.

Two months later, I found it “perfectly possible to imagine a liquidity crisis too big for the monetary authorities to handle alone ... Governments would need to step in.” By autumn 2007, I argued that we confronted “a more toxic cocktail than many investors still want to believe”, and the crisis would be global.

In December 2007, I predicted a “great dying” of financial institutions as a “man-made disaster – the subprime mortgage crisis – works its way through the global financial system”. On August 7, 2008, I anticipated a “global tempest” that would swiftly make the term “credit crunch” an absurd understatement.

There is a lot about the present reminiscent of pre-crisis days. In all but a handful of housing markets, inflation-adjusted home prices are above where they were on the eve of the crisis. US home prices plunged a quarter between 2006 and 2012. They have recovered and added some on top. New York condos are 19 per cent above their pre-crisis high. And real estate isn’t the best performer of 2017.

More http://www.scmp.com/comment/insight-opinion/article/2120679/another-global-financial-crisis-imminent-and-here-are-four?utm_content=buffer6c4e1&utm_medium=social&utm_source=twitter.com&utm_campaign=buffer

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IWM : etf for Russell 2000 ... update




Nine month cycle?



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Take a look... if you are not too scared


A World of Pure Imagination


"My question in my Vancouver presentation last week:

If we all KNOW 100% 2000 & 2008 were gigantic bubbles then how do you argue THIS?"

> Grant Williams : https://twitter.com/ttmygh/status/892814446241951750




I'm surprised that Grant Wiliams' recent presentation has attracted so little comment (except for some disparaging remarks on reddit)




I would have thought the general message of "bubble" would have generated some viewpoints.


> thread: http://www.greenenergyinvestors.com/index.php?showtopic=21766

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JoMoSo updated ... all

Key Top MarketCap stocks: Johnson&Johnson, JP Morgan Chase, microSof


> http://www.greenenergyinvestors.com/index.php?showtopic=21408

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SPX -to-Gold has broken out - above 200% - Latest was 212%


We may now be on the High road (H) or better in the Cycle

IWM ... update



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Update to Dec. 5th posting...


SPX -to-Gold has broken out - above 200% - Latest was 212%


We may now be on the High road (H) or better in the Cycle

IWM ... update



UPDATE to Jan.26th

Ratio : SPX -to- Gold -- now at 212.5%

IWM ... update : Could look like this - of the Cycle is still operating, and so maybe a peak near $165 in Feb (a guess)


Other possibilities:

+ A bigger drop

+ Continuing rise - as the cycle gets stretched, or has stopped operating

Longer chart does not show a consistent 9mos cycle - and 2012-13 showed more than 12 months of ongoing rise


The 8-9mos cycle looks like half of a more reliable cycle


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Bill Gates warns of another financial crash as bad as Great Recession...

When asked if he thought the US would be hit by another major financial crisis he replied: “Yes. It is hard to say when but this is a certainty.”

The 2008 financial crisis was triggered in the US over problems in the country’s subprime property market and then grew into a devastating global recession.

The effects of that are still being felt today with an estimated one in three Americans having not recovered financially a decade on from the recession, according to CNBC.

Although Gates has predicted a similar financial meltdown, he remains fairly optimistic about the ability to recover from any downturn.

At the end of the 'Ask Me Anything' session, Gates said: “Despite this prediction of bumps ahead, I am quite optimistic about how innovation and capitalism will improve the situation for humans everywhere.”

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The Crash Of 1929: "Can It Happen Again?"

Currently, we are in a situation where, according to several metrics, the stock market is the most over-valued in the history of the NYSE. The central banks, with their orthodox and unorthodox monetary policies, have fed the asset market mania for nine years now but, currently, they are in a tightening cycle. Moreover, the global economy is in a risk of a dramatic slowdown. This indicates that the main components of the crash of 1929: an over-valued stock market, a central bank tightening cycle (higher interest rates) and a slowing economy are almost all present in the US. We will thus soon know how well the history rhymes.
How False Flag Operations Are Carried Out Today

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Is the Dollar's (brief) rally over?

DXY ... update



DXY : Update - 5/30 : 94.07



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