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Financial crash? : 2017-18 peak / lasting until 2020 -21 ?

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This could one of the warning signs...


The big change, however, has come from M4ex, the Bank’s favourite measure of broad money. The latest figures reveal that it surged by a staggering 14.7pc in the three months to the end of July – a period that included more than a month of post-referendum data. The reason for the prior sluggishness was that insurers, fund managers and other City firms were reducing their holdings of cash. But they suddenly engaged in a reverse ferret, increasing their holdings of cash by an annualised 70pc over the past three months and thus sending the overall measure shooting higher, Ward says.


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Published on Sep 21, 2016

Sub for more: http://nnn.is/the_new_media | Ambrose Evans-Pritchard for Bloomberg reports China has failed to curb excesses in its credit system and faces mounting risks of a full-blown banking crisis, according to early warning indicators released by the world’s top financial watchdog.

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Pending demise of the "Flow Monster"? Who will pay?


Deutsche Bank versus SPY : 10-days : DB: $11.48 -0.82, -6.67% / SPY: 214.68 - 1.96, - 0.90%



Tony C's calling the stock action "corrective" again:


MEDIUM TERM: potential uptrend looks corrective


For the day the SPX/DOW lost 1.00%, and the NDX/NAZ lost 0.85%. Bonds added 3 ticks, Crude rose 60 cents, Gold slipped $2, and the USD was higher. Medium term support remains at the 2131 and 2116 pivots, with resistance at the 2177 and 2212 pivots. Tomorrow: personal income/spending and the PCE at 8:30, the Chicago PMI at 9:45, then consumer sentiment at 10am.


The market opened slightly lower today, then hit SPX 2173. After a pullback the market started to rally, and then the DB news broke. The stock sold off and the market sold off with it. For the first time, since the SPX 2120 low and seven rallies, the SPX fully retraced one: 2152-2173-2145. Now it is quite clear, the entire advance off the SPX 2120 low is corrective. This suggests SPX 2120 was an A, and SPX 2180 was a B, with a C wave underway now. Would have taken this viewpoint earlier if it wasn’t for the ongoing uptrend in the NDX/NAZ indices. Cyclicals fighting the Tech advance. Short term support is now at the 2131 and 2116 pivots, with resistance at the 2177 pivot and SPX 2194. Short term momentum was quite oversold at today’s lows then bounced. Trade what’s in front of you!


> https://caldaro.wordpress.com/


Double bottom at SPY-2116 must hold for Bulls to stay bullish


tony caldaro says:

As long as the NDX remains in an uptrend
a retest of the 2116 pivot would work

kvilia says:

Absolutely agree, Sir. IMO either that’s the end of correction or we will be putting the bear hats on – no need to wait for 1991 if 2116 does not hold.



Concern Over Deutsche Bank's Health Shakes Markets
New York Times-41 minutes ago
Stock markets were rattled on Thursday after reports emerged that some clients of Deutsche Bank, the struggling German lender...
. . .
....Providing all manner of lending and trading services to hedge funds and other investors, Deutsche Bank is one of the elite practitioners on the street, with large trading hubs in London and New York. In the parlance of traders, the bank is called “a flow monster,” meaning it makes its money by capturing a piece of the trillions of dollars of bonds and stocks that are the lifeblood of today’s global financial system. But this status is only as good as the trust that hedge funds and institutional investors have in the bank to make good on trades and to be a sound steward for assets that are parked there.

Making matters worse for Deutsche Bank is that short-term rates tied to the Libor, or the London interbank offered rate — the benchmark financial institutions use when they borrow money — have been edging up as a result of concerns over rising interest rates and a dearth of ready cash in the markets. Higher rates and worries about the bank’s financial health can be enough for some clients to take their business elsewhere.

“Why would you keep collateral with Deutsche Bank right now,” said Raoul Pal, an independent research provider who has been an outspoken critic of the bank for several years. “If you are a hedge fund right now, you start pulling lines and go somewhere else.”

Because of its size, analysts do not expect Deutsche Bank to fail, as Lehman Brothers did in September 2008, and in the process close the door on billions of dollars that investment funds had in the bank. But given the political opposition in Germany to any form of help for banks in distress, especially before important elections next fall, the situation would have to deteriorate significantly to prompt state intervention. Part of what stiffens resistance to a bailout is that Deutsche Bank has, since 2009, tapped markets for 13 billion euros in cash, while paying out 19 billion euros in bonuses, according to data compiled by Autonomous Research.

“It is all about confidence now,” said Julian Brigden, an independent market analyst at Macro Intelligence 2 Partners, an independent research company that caters to hedge funds and is based in Vail, Colo. “If a client has some derivatives at Deutsche Bank, he starts to think — will I get paid. Things can get out of hand quickly.”
Wary Deutsche Bank clients withdraw some cash
In-Depth-The Australian Financial Review-2 hours ago

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Post can be found on DollarVigilante.com: HERE

Sunday, October 02, 2016



On Friday, Deutsche Bank’s stock (DB:NYSE) rose 14% on rumors that it had negotiated a settlement with the US Department of Justice’s demand for $15 billion (which is the entire market capitalization of Deutsche Bank) down to $5.6 billion (which would still decimate Deutsche Bank).

Well, it turns out that rumor was completely unsubstantiated.

There is no settlement. And it’s just amazing that the US Dept. of Justice, knowing that Deutsche Bank’s failure would rip the heart out of the European banking industry, is pushing ahead with their demands anyway.

In its last months the Obama administration is showing its true colors more clearly than ever. It is nothing but an appendage of London’s City and the plan continues to be to sink the European and world economy ASAP.

We’ve predicted this in the past, specifically mentioning the trigger could be Deutsche Bank.

There’s no doubt banking elites continue to intend to undermine what’s left of the solvency of the world. Fortunately, we track these issues on an ongoing basis via Shemitah Trends. This has provided us extraordinary insights into what’s happening today and what’s going to happen tomorrow.

It’s now being reported by the Frankfurter Allegemeine Zeitung, a German newspaper, that DB executives are US-bound in the coming days to negotiate the widely talked about $14 billion settlement over residential mortgage backed securities.

However, the FAZ didn’t cite any sources for this information and DB failed to respond immediately, according to Zero Hedge
, in regard to their chief executive, John Cryan’s travel plans. Which is a pretty clear indication that the $5.6 Billion settlement number “obtained from twitter” is a total fabrication.

This makes perfect sense. None of this is supposed to be settled anytime soon. The idea is to make the global economic infrastructure tremble. The worse it gets, the easier it becomes to install a truly globalized economy.

So if you are expecting the problems to slow or even cease, don’t get your hopes up. Just when you thought it couldn’t get any worse for Deutsche, it’s looking to be like Wells Fargo 2.0. The grim news will continue throughout next week, and it won’t be getting any better.


(thnx to Y.)

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The Deutsche Bank "relief rally" may be ending


DB ... 3-yrs : update : 10-d



If it turns lower next week, we may see a retest of the recent high volume low (at $11.19)... or worse

The Fall of Deutsche Bank. Prepare Yourself Accordingly.

Published on 7 Oct 2016


US Financial stocks have also had a nice rally back


XLF / Financial Stocks ... XLF-10d / SPY-10d / Both



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RED ALERT for Stocks


Thanks to a mention in Saturday's CVN News Review, I finally found the Link for this red alert by HSBC

> http://www.businessi...-market-2016-10

In a note to clients released Wednesday, Murray Gunn, the head of technical analysis for HSBC, said he had become on "RED ALERT" for an imminent sell-off in stocks given the price action over the past few weeks.

Gunn uses a type of technical analysis called the Elliott Wave Principle, which tracks alternating patterns in the stock market to discern investors' behavior and possible next moves.

. . .

"With the US stock market selling off aggressively on 11 October, we now issue a RED ALERT," Gunn said in the note. "The fall was broad-based and the Traders Index (TRIN) showed intense selling pressure as the market moved to the lows of the day. The VIX index, a barometer of nervousness, has been making a series of higher lows since August."

Gunn said the selling would truly set in if the Dow Jones Industrial Average were to fall below 17,992 or if the S&P 500 were to dip under 2,116. The Dow closed at 18,128 on Tuesday, while the S&P settled at 2,136.

"As long as those levels remain intact, the bulls still have a slight hope," Gunn said.

"But should those levels break and the markets close below (which now seems more likely), it would be a clear sign that the bears have taken over and are starting to feast. The possibility of a severe fall in the stock market is now very high."


INDU ... 3-yrs : 6-mos : 10-d / UKX-10d / HSI-10d :



The X22 report mentioned it also

MP3 >

He talks about the unprecedented rapid decline in the US economy

Ericsson sales implode. Consumer spending deteriorates in September, the holiday season not looking good. Deutsche Bank sells more debt to keep the bank operational. HSBC says we are headed to a stock market collapse. The Fed is making plans to control more of the world economy. Will ask congress for more power. Fed reports cyber attacks are picking up especially on the SWIFT system and financial systems. This will be used to explain why the economic system collapses. US and Chile sign defense agreement, meanwhile Armenia and Russia sign an agreement. US marines launch a new drone to scout the area in Iraq to look for those who are rising up against the puppet government. US believes the Houthis fired a missile at US ships, now they report a second missile was shot, so the US fires missiles back at the Houthis in Yemen. Russia’s electronic systems in Syria keeps the US and other countries from spying on the movements of troops. al-Qaeda is now keeping the civilians hostage in Aleppo. Putin says they know who destroyed the convoy and so does the US, it was the terrorists. The US Government is preparing the people for the next event.


We are already seeing a Slide in Bond prices

TLT ... 10-days



SPX ... 10-days



Ratio: SPX -to-TLT


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THREE MAJOR SHOCKS awaiting the world after next week's election




Meantime, it seems that the Deep State has decided to Dump Hillary


Could the Deep State Be Sabotaging Hillary? (August 8, 2016)

When the governed get tired of Imperial over-reach and expansion, they are willing to take chances just to get rid of the expansionist status quo. In this point in history, Hillary Clinton embodies the status quo. The differences in policy between her and the Obama administration are paper-thin: she is the status quo.

The governed are ready for a period of retrenchment, consolidation and diplomatic solutions to unwinnable conflicts, as imperfect as the peace might be to hawks.

For these reasons, the more adept elements of the Deep State have no choice but to dump Hillary. Empires fall not just from defeat in war with external enemies, but from the abandonment of expansionist Imperial burdens by the domestic populace.

Put another way: drones and proxies don't pay taxes.


> more, newer article: http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-09-26/why-deep-state-dumping-hillary


Might be a good idea to buy some calls on Silver or Gold

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BIGGEST "Trump effect" so far is Rising Rates


May not be good for Property and Stocks ... eventually


BONDS Collapsing as Long rates rise



TYX : 30 yr. Rates - up from 2.10% to 2.93% (that's a jump of +39.5%) : 10-yrs : 5-yrs : 2-yrs : 6-mos



TNX : 10 yr. Rates - up from 1.34% to 2.12% (that's a jump of +58.2%) : 10-yrs : 5-yrs : 2-yrs : 6-mos


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There are some interesting discrepancies showing up in Stock Indices.

This rally may not have any legs,

Especially when you consider the JUMPS in interest rates.


INDU / Dow Jones Ind Ave ... INDU : at 18,807.88 - new high




Other Indices are Not Confirming New High!


SOXX (iShares PHLX Semiconductor ETF) vs other indices : 10-days : UKX-vs-etc





XLF- $21.61 -NewHigh
SPX-2,167.48 vs.2183.81,
IWM- 124.50 vs.125.88,
SOXX-109.11 vs.114.21 (-2.41, -2.16%)
UKX-6,757.69 vs.7129.83 (-70.29. -1.03%)

FTSE is getting hit today

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Gold and Silver also got whacked today


The big rise in long rates are hitting gold more than stocks

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Interesting post from Paul on PA




Economic Outlook for 2017: debt deflation, supply shortages, currency inflation, bank failures, repossession

Right now, seven weeks before the end of 2016, the economic outlook for 2017 looks quite clear to me. I'll express it from the perspective of the US, but it's a world-wide phenomenon that will involve most of humanity, one way or another.

This sort of thing happens about every 80 years or so, and whenever the dominant monetary system is debt-money based, its general shape is quite predictable.

First and foremost, debt issuance collapses. A substantial portion of the bank issued debt to individuals, businesses, and governments will cease being issued, and in many cases, outstanding loans will be "called" ("pay us now, or we repossess or privatize or foreclose the home, car, inventory, land, or whatever collateral you had offered to get the loan.")

I foresee cash shortages, failing banks, credit card cancelations, and missed payroll, pension, and benefit payments.

If you're depending on newly issued debt for some of the necessities of life; if your employer is depending on borrowing money to stay in business (and pay you); if your government is depending on more debt to issue a welfare, social security or medical benefit; ... you've got a problem. In the case of the government, if it's a nation-state that can print its own currency, you might get the same dollar-amount paid, but it won't buy very much. Otherwise, the payments and payroll risk not being there at all.

In particular, this time around, in the US, this will cause a massive supply chain shock. Most of what we consume, and most of the manufacturing, transportation, and distribution channels that get that stuff to us, are debt financed. This is called "just-in-time" delivery, with only a few days worth of consumables in the supply chain, on trucks and trains and ships and in warehouses.

As soon as the banking system stops lending to all those involved, the supply chain breaks down. The lack of a robust way, not involving debt financing, to fund many supply chain transactions is actually a bigger problem than the lack of much stock in warehouses.

I foresee lots of empty store shelves.

The combination of (1) cash and credit shortages, (2) supply shortages, and (3) desperate nations printing money will mean:

  • You won't have the cash or credit to buy stuff,
  • the stuff won't be there to buy anyway, and
  • if you could find it and pay for it, it willl cost a lot more.
This is how "we" do the ancient tradition of "debt jubilees" in modern times. Debt collapses, loans are recalled, collateral is repossessed, and debt-money fueled economies collapse. This allows the lending banks to recapitalize, on the back of the property, resources, and income streams that they confiscated from their customers that they drove into bankruptcy or austerity or debt-slavery in the collapse that they caused, of the previous debt bubble that they created. It' s a nice business, if you can get it (and if you're morally deficient.)

Welcome to 2017 (and a few years beyond - this big a mess doesn't get cleaned up in just one year.)

If you're one of those who enjoys listening to Clif High, you can listen to him tell you this, in his own typical fashion:



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Op-Ed: I'm not worried about a US recession, I'm worried about another Great Depression



Dorothea Lange | Fotosearch | Getty Images
A unemployed man stands against a vacant store with 'To Let' and 'To Lease' posters in the window, in a photograph by Dorothea Lange, on 'Skid Row', Howard Street, San Francisco, February 1937.

Donald Trump's victory in the U.S. presidential elections may appear seismic. But what of the aftershocks over the next few years?

The victory certainly comes as a surprise; particularly because of his vagueness on policy. However, there's no reason to panic just yet. Here are some of our initial thoughts.


One of the main aftershocks could well be trade. The U.S. president does have a relatively large amount of discretion in trade. New agreements, such as the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) and The Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership (TTIP), are likely to be halted.

However, these agreements were essentially political constructs that were primarily designed to benefit the U.S. and those nations that allied themselves to the U.S. at the expense of others. The TPP has already started to divide Asia into those who benefit most from TPP (e.g. Vietnam) and those who don't (e.g. China and Thailand). Trump is basically moving those battle lines but I don't see these fractures as being worse. In fact, a better outcome for China may even delay global and regional instability. Similarly, Trump will no doubt cut the TTIP.

A Trump trade war with China is likely to be no more damaging and arguably less damaging and less effective (but much clumsier, more visible and playing to the gallery) than the TPP would have been for China. Ultimately this may be a zero-sum game but a zero-sum game where China can't afford to lose without there being potentially serious consequences for the Chinese and global economy. For this reason, Trump barging noisily through the front door may prove less of an immediate trigger to a Chinese depression than TPP more subtly attacking China via the backdoor, like a stealthy cat burglar.

Trump has stated that he would renegotiate NAFTA (North American Free Trade Agreement) and potentially withdraw the U.S. from the agreement if consensus with other members could not been found. He would not need congressional approval to do this; although this is not saying he would. Trump will likely come under pressure to give details of his plans, particularly as the Mexican peso drops significantly in value.


Trump has given some, although little, detail to date. His plans for individuals may send tremors, as they look like House Speaker Paul Ryan's 33 percent tax cut, simplifying the filing process and restructuring the international tax code. Again, the specifics, and what it means for FATCA (Foreign Account Tax Compliance Act), are unclear. Trump's corporate tax plan is very much like that of the Congressional Republicans' 20 percent rate. Reform of both individual and corporate taxation is a priority of Congressional Republicans. However, even with control of the House, it will likely face several obstacles, especially without a supermajority.

Financial regulation

Trump's victory may mean large parts of the post-financial crisis Dodd-Frank financial reform act being retracted. It could also mean the end of the Department of Labor's fiduciary rule, requiring higher standards of all financial professionals working in retirement planning. This will depend on who Trump brings in as advisers.



> http://www.cnbc.com/2016/11/11/op-ed-im-not-worried-about-a-us-recession-im-worried-about-another-great-depression.html

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Trump Prepares The US For The Collapse Of The Central Banker’s System – Episode 1255


The good guys along with Trump are preparing the US for the collapse of the system and the end of the Fed. The deep state is pushing their agenda. All the noise coming from the corporate is the push to get people into going along with the deep states plan. Be prepared for some type of an event. Trump and the good guys are draining the swamp, getting the corporate media on his side to hatch their plan. Take a step back and look for the messages.

Comment by intruth on April 17, 2017 @ 8:00 pm



9th inning

Comment by belle3 on April 17, 2017 @ 8:02 pm

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Ten Nifty stocks - mostly with not so nifty P/E's


These 10 stocks have 20% of the MktCap of the S&P-500.

But produce only 13% as much of the earnings.

Might these be the best stocks for shorting (or Put buying) ?


There used to be favored stocks trading at high PE ratiios. They were called the "Nifty 50"

Here are 9 (?) well known stocks I found trading at high prices.


charts: 5-yrs : #1 : #2 / 1-yr : #3 : #4 / 10d : #4 : #5 :


The list is the Top 10 companies by Market Capitalization, as of early 2017


AAPL / Apple Inc ... all data : $141.83 / Change: +0.78 / PE: 16.99 : yield: 1.61%


AMZN / Amazon.com Inc. ... all data : $901.99 / Change: arrow_up_sm.gif +17.32 / PE: 183.9 : yield: n/a



BRK.A / Berkshire Hathaway ... all data : $246,700 / change: +1,700 / PE: 16.85 : yield: n/a



FB / Facebook Inc. ... all data : : $141.42 / change: +2.03 / PE: 43.38 : yield: n/a



GOOG / Alphabet inc. ... all data : : $837.17 / Change: +13.61 / PE: 30.03 : yield: n/a




AAPL / Apple Inc ................... all data : $141.83 / $744.1bn : 5.24bn / PE: 16.99 : yield: 1.61%

GOOG / Alphabet inc. .......... all data : $837.17 / $578.8bn : 601mn / PE: 30.03 : yield: n/a

MSFT / Microsoft Corp. .....,,.. all data : $ 65.48 / $506.0bn : 7.73bn / PE: 30.89 : yield: 2.38%
AMZN / Amazon.com Inc. ...... all data : $901.99 / $431.1bn : 478mn / PE: 183.9 : yield: n/a

FB / Facebook Inc. .......... all data : $141.42 / $409.7bn : 2.90bn / PE: 43.38 : yield: n/a

=============================== : SubT : ====== $2,669.7 bn / PE: 61.04 : yield: 1.99%
BRK.A / Berkshire Hathaway all data : $246,700/$405.7bn : 1.64m / PE: 16.85 : yield: n/a

XOM / Exxon Corp. ................ all data : $ 81.58 / $345.9bn : 4.24bn / PE: 43.57 : yield: 3.68%

JNJ / Johnson & Johnson .. all data : $125.72 / $340.8bn : 2.71bn / PE: 21.38 : yield: 2.55%
JPM / JPMorgan Chase &Co all data : $ 85.86 / $305.5bn : 3.56bn / PE: 13.22 : yield: 2.33%
WFC / Wells Fargo ................ all data : $ 52.72 / $263.4bn : 5.00bn / PE: 13.19 : yield: 2.88%
================================ : SubT :====== $1,661.3 bn / PE: 21.64 : yield: 2.86%
================================ : SubT :====== $2,669.7 bn / PE: 61.04 : yield: 1.99%
================================ : total : ====== $4,331.0 bn / PE: 41.34 : yield: 2.57% (ave. of those 7 with divs.)
SPX / S&P 500 Index....... all data : Log : $ 2,349.:-$21,188.bn: 9.02b/ PE: 26.37 : yield: 1.95%
----------------------------What share of SPX is Top 10? : 20.44%: Earnings: $105bn/ $803bn : 13%




> All 10 stock charts - on New thread: http://www.greenenergyinvestors.com/index.php?showtopic=21408


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"... the S&P might need to undergo a violent "blow off" in the next 1-2 months... "


SPX (etf for S&P500) ... update : SPY : INDU : IWM : XLF / Last: $2,399.62 - rising on lighter volume (so far)




NEOWAVE: Extreme Market Risk

In the last 35-years, there have been ONLY 4 occasions when I was certain a stock market crash was coming – they were the high in 1987, the high in 2000 (the internet bubble), the end of the real estate boom in early 2008 and the high made August 2015. In ALL cases, a massive decline followed.

At this time, based on all the things I know about the U.S. stock market (current Wave structure implications, U.S. margin debt, insider traders selling stock, overbought warnings from my Moat Index, a rising interest rate environment and the volume of new accounts being opened at brokerage firms in 2017 around the country), THIS is the FIRST TIME since August 2015 that I'm VERY concerned a "Stock Market Crash" is just 1-3 months away.

The two ingredients currently missing from the typical setup for a major market top is volatility (which is normally high at major tops and bottoms) and widespread media coverage. With those two elements absent, the S&P might need to undergo a violent "blow off" in the next 1-2 months. Such behavior will increase volatility and definitely get the attention of the main stream media.

Whether the S&P soars to new highs over the next 1-2 months and volatility increases OR the S&P simply sells off and begins a violent decline from a lower high, the odds are EXTREMELY HIGH - in the next 1-3 months - that the U.S. stock market will experience its largest, fastest decline in 10 years! That violent drop will be the start of a 2-4 year bear market that retraces at least 50% of the 2009-2017 bull market. If you look at the attached long-term (6-monthly) chart, you can see my best guess at Wave structure back to 2000's high and the S&P current position and what I expect (the red-dashed line). Keep in mind, a "blow off" advance of 5-10% might occur this month or next BEFORE the crash begins. Either way, I'm fairly confident a multi-year bear market will begin in 2017.

We can only guess what might instigate the next bear market but many possibilities exist. The Fed continuing to raise interest rates historically is enough. The tensions between North Korea, China, the U.S. and Russia is another factor. Massive borrowing by U.S. corporations to buy their own stock, which will eventually have to be paid back, is another concern. Eventually, the cause of the bear market will be decided but, in the mean time, you should prepare.


(by email)

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Nature's Warning about an over-valued stock market?


"JoMoSo" = JO-hnson&Johnson, jpMO-rgan, microSOft

10-years : 10-yrs-wo-AAPL :



Are the Bears warming up, ready to play the tune


Bear Breaks Into Mountain Condo, Bangs On Piano


VAIL, Colo. (CBS4) – Video of a black bear inside a Vail condo

poking around and playing a few notes on the owners piano is getting thousands of views online.


(credit: YouTube)

Vail police officers took the report of what the owner originally thought was a burglary, but her surveillance cameras captured the intruder and it had four paws.

It happened in an East Vail neighborhood on May 31.

The officer who responded to the call found evidence of the black bear inside. It is believed the bear made entry into the home through an open kitchen window. While inside, the bear did minor damage to the apartment and took food from a freezer, according to officers.

Following the report to police, the owner checked her internal camera system, which captured the event on video.

The bear can be seen wandering around the apartment and at one point went to a piano, putting its paws on the keys playing a few loud and dissonant notes.

Vail police said in a news release that “The chords captured on video were unbearable and the tune was equally grizzly.”


> http://denver.cbslocal.com/2017/06/05/bear-piano-vail/

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UBS Has Some Very Bad News For The Global Economy


"From peak to trough the deceleration in global credit growth is now approaching that during the global financial crisis (-6% of global GDP)."


At the end of February we first highlighted something extremely troubling for the global "recovery" narrative: according to UBS the global credit impulse - the second derivative of credit growth and arguably the biggest driver behind economic growth and world GDP - had abruptly stalled, as a result of a sudden and unexpected collapse in said impulse.

As UBS' analyst Arend Kapteyn wrote then, the "global credit impulse (covering 77% of global GDP) has suddenly collapsed" and added that "as the chart below shows the 'global' credit impulse over the last 18 months is essentially mainly China (the green shaded bit), which even now is still creating new credit at an annualized rate of around 30pp of (Chinese) GDP. But the credit impulse is the 'change in the change' in credit and even the Chinese banks could not sustain the recent extraordinary pace of credit acceleration. As a result: whereas back in Jan '16 the global credit impulse was positive to the tune of 3.8% of global GDP (of which China comprised 3.5% of global GDP) it has now fallen back to -0.1% of global GDP (China's contribution is -0.3% of global GDP)."

. . .

UBS' parting words - despite the spun attempt to deliver the gloomy news as painlessly as possible - are very concerning:

Over the last 6 months, the culprits are the US and China (given large GDP weights) but the size of the declines in, Germany, Italy, and Mexico are notable.
And the message from the impulse response functions is basically that global IP and import volume growth have peaked.

That is polite way of saying the credit dynamo behind global growth has not only stopped, but is now fully in reverse mode. And, as a reminder, as UBS admitted earlier, "from peak to trough the deceleration in global credit growth is now approaching that during the global financial crisis." Only this time there is no global financial crisis.

More importantly, back in 2009, not only China, but the Fed and other central banks unleashed the biggest injection of credit, i.e. liquidity, the world has ever seen resulting in the biggest asset bubble the world has ever seen. And, this time around, the Fed is set to hike for the third time in the past year, even as the ECB and BOJ are forced to soon taper as they run out of eligible bonds to monetize. All this comes at a time when US loan growth is weeks away from turning negative.


/ 2 /

  • Jun 12, 2017

"Nobody In Power Is Paying Attention To How Close We Are To The Edge"


As our politicos creep deeper into a legalistic wilderness hunting for phantoms of Russian collusion, nobody pays attention to the most dangerous force in American life: the unraveling financialization of the economy.

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06.13.17- The Next Financial Crisis Has Already Arrived In Europe, And People Are Starting To Freak Out

  • Did you know that the sixth largest bank in Spain failed in spectacular fashion just a few days ago? Many are comparing the sudden implosion of Banco Popular to the collapse of Lehman Brothers in 2008, and EU regulators hastily arranged a sale of the failed bank to Santander in order to avoid a full scale financial panic. Sadly, most Americans have no idea that a new financial crisis is starting to play out over in Europe, because most Americans only care about what is going on in America.

  • But we should be paying attention, because the EU is the second largest economy on the entire planet, and the euro is the second most used currency on the entire planet. The U.S. financial system is already teetering on the brink of disaster, and this new financial crisis in Europe could turn out to be enough to push us over the edge.

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Major Inflection point at hand


PHONY WEALTH : U.S. House of Cards about to collapse


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"The Fed'd biggest asset is Student debt, which will not be collected."

"With that assets impaired, how will the Feds pay for a failing healthcare system?"

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  • Jun 19, 2017 7:55 PM
  • 217

An Empire Self-Destructs... through loss of wealth generation, and war


"...empires are built through the creation or acquisition of wealth... They tend to end through the gradual elimination of the free-market system, the metamorphosis to a welfare state, and, finally, through the destruction of wealth through costly warfare..."

. . .

,First, let’s take a peek back at the other aforementioned empires and see how they fared. Rome was arguably the greatest empire the world has ever seen. Industrious Romans organized large armies that went to other parts of the world, subjugating them and seizing the wealth that they had built up over generations. And as long as there were further conquerable lands just over the next hill, this approach was very effective. However, once Rome faced diminishing returns on new lands to conquer, it became evident that those lands it had conquered had to be maintained and defended, even though there was little further wealth that could be confiscated.

The conquered lands needed costly militaries and bureaucracies in place to keep them subjugated but were no longer paying for themselves. The “colonies” were running at a loss. Meanwhile, Rome itself had become very spoiled. Its politicians kept promising more in the way of “bread and circuses” to the voters, in order to maintain their political office. So, the coffers were being drained by both the colonies and at home. Finally, in a bid to keep from losing their power, Roman leaders entered into highly expensive wars. This was the final economic crippler and the empire self-destructed.

Spain was a highly productive nation that attacked its neighbours successfully and built up its wealth, then became far wealthier when it sailed west, raiding the Americas of the silver and gold that they had spent hundreds of years accumulating. The sudden addition of this wealth allowed the Spanish kings to be lavish to the people and, as in Rome, the Spanish became very spoiled indeed. But once the gold and silver that was coming out of the New World was down to a trickle, the funding for maintaining the empire began to dry up. Worse, old enemies from Europe were knocking at the door, hoping to even old scores. In a bid to retain the empire, the king entered into extensive warfare in Europe, rapidly draining the royal purse and, like Rome, the Spanish Empire self-destructed.

In the Victorian era, the British Empire was unmatched in the world. It entered the industrial revolution and was highly productive. In addition, it was pulling wealth from its colonies in the form of mining, farming and industry. But, like other countries in Europe, it dove into World War I quickly and, since warfare always diminishes productivity at home whilst it demands major expense abroad, the British Empire was knocked down to one knee by the end of the war.


Then, in 1939, the game was afoot again and Britain was drawn into a second world war. By the end of the war, it could still be said that there would always be an England, but its wealth had been drained off and, one by one, its colonies jumped ship. The days of empire were gone.

Into the breach stepped the US. At the beginning of World War I, the US took no part in the fighting, but, as it had experienced its own industrial revolution, it supplied goods, food, and armaments to Britain and her allies. Because the pound and other European currencies could not be trusted not to inflate, payment was made in gold and silver. So the US was expanding its productivity into a guaranteed market, selling at top dollar, using the profits to create larger, more efficient factories, and getting paid in gold.

Then, in 1939, it all happened again...

. . .

As stated in the first line of this essay, “empires are built through the creation or acquisition of wealth.” They tend to end through the gradual elimination of the free-market system, the metamorphosis to a welfare state, and, finally, through the destruction of wealth through costly warfare.

Does this indicate the “end of the world”? Not at all. The world did not end with the fall of Rome, Spain, England, or any one of the many other empires. The productive people simply moved to a different geographical location—one that encourages free-market opportunity. The wealth moved with them, then grew, as the free market allowed productive people to make it grow.

Freedom and opportunity still exist and indeed flourish. All that’s changing is the locations where they are to be found.

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SPX could be approaching an important Top, at or about 2,500


SPX ... All-data : 2-yr :



Target : 1,810 x 1.3812 = 2,500



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I AM SPOOKED ! By some charts


"a right shoulder in the bond market" ?


Example: TLT / Bonds : 2-yrs :



(from a viber conversation):


This TLT chart may not look like much...

But it is one of the things that has me spooked - Looks like a right shoulder in the bond market



> http://www.greenenergyinvestors.com/index.php?showtopic=21567

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