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Financial crash? : 2017-18 peak / lasting until 2020 -21 ?

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http://www.jsmineset.com/2016/02/07/you-are-watching-it/

 

You Are Watching It!

 

The most common question I hear is “when”. When does the system collapse? When will we experience a reset? I think this is a very odd question. Odd because if you stand back far enough you should be able to see “you are watching it”! We are all so close and watching day by day movements, we are missing the big picture. Don’t get me wrong, many know systemically we are a bust but the daily watch for the lights out moment goes on. My point is this, the collapse is happening right before your eyes, “when” is a process and you are watching history!

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After the predicted Dip in Gold - a stampede?

 

Elites Set to Wipe Out Stock Market Shorts Before Next Downwave...

Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2016 Feb 01, 2016 - 04:05 AM GMT

By: Clive_Maund

stockmarket.gif

diamond.gifThe recovery rally in the US stockmarket that we have been expecting for a week or two started on Friday with a robust advance that gathered strength into the close. The trigger was Japan's announcement that it is going into NIRP (Negative Interest Rate Policy) in a big way, which means that as they slip deeper into the abyss of bankruptcy they are going to resort to robbing savers. This is real "endgame stuff" - another milestone on the road to ruin, and it looks like it was the result of the Japanese attendees at Davos being taken to one side and given their "marching orders". The US stockmarket reveled in this news of course, because it means that the Fed's proposed interest rate rises will never happen and instead they will get ready to launch a massive QE blitz, in concert with Central Banks around the world, in a desperate effort to fend off the gathering forces of deflation. The end result of this QE blitz will be hyperinflation and chaos. At some point the penny will drop with investors and there will be a stampede into gold and silver, although latest COTs suggest that this is still some way off.

==

> http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article53882.html

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Look and read:

 

 

Ding ding! Banks going down

 

 

One Third Of Energy Companies Could Go Bankrupt Deloitte Warns As Credit Risk Hits Record High http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-02-16/one-third-energy-companies-could-go-bankrupt-deloitte-warns-credit-risk-hits-record-

 

 

Yup.

This is the Big (potential) trigger - not Derivatives

 

Derivatives just spread it around unpredictably,

since every derivatives "bet" has a winner and a loser

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DOWNSIDE CROSS looks inevitable - so SELL this Rally !

 

A closer look at the 14 x 18 month Crossovers / i.e. Brown MA crosses Blue, making a confirmation

 

Monthly : SPX

SPX-20yr_zps2wrqe9tk.png

 

Weekly : 5-yrs-SPX

: About to cross? Any month now - inevitable so long as SPX stays below the 14 mo - MA as it is now

Cross-SPX-5yr_zpsyelqjowk.gif

When the present rally is finished, Watch out Below !

 

2/

Monthly : T-Note

Gold_zpsqs0bi0it.png

Weekly : 5-yrs-GLD : GDX : GDXJ : SLV : SLW : RGLD :

: This looks promising, but the 14mo MA hasn't crossed over above the 18mo MA yet - it may soon,

and the strong upside volume is an indication that the cross is likely unless Gold drops back

Cross-GLD-5yrB_zpsesufawnc.gif

 

3/

Monthly : T-Notes, 10 years

TBond-10yr_zpsok30zicq.png

 

Weekly : 5-yrs-TLT : XLF- crossed ! : BKX : IYR : PHM :

:Still moving higher, upwards trend is intact

Cross-TLT-5yr_zpspxclbixf.gif

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(I may join him, in going short this week):

 

SSO - 2x etf on SPY ... 6mos : Latest: SPX Close: 1999.99 / SPY: 200.43 / SSO: $60.19 (H: $60.79 / L: $59.43)

SSO_zps3b6ulzea.gif

 

After 7 long years of waiting...
by Chris Martenson

Monday, February 29, 2016, 11:55 pm

In the interests of full disclosure and of keeping you abreast of my personal investment actions, I entered a short position on Friday for the first time since 2009. Yes, it’s been seven years.

The equity markets have been all but bulletproof for 6 years, but I think that phase has ended and we’re in for a rough ride from here on out. At least until stocks fall far enough for the central banks to have another go at attempting to print up prosperity.

First, I think that the stock rally of late is overdone and there’s more downside to come. I have a whole host of supporting reasons based on credit markets and global trade, but we’ll get...

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Jeff Rense & John Truman Wolfe - The Coming 2016 Financial Crisis

Published on Mar 2, 2016

 

Nothing very new here, apart for the idea that there's an institution within the BIS giving marching orders to Central Banks

 

... if you like that, I found a longer version:

John Truman Wolfe ~ The Coming Financial Crisis

 

"The first target is cash. Later, they will come after your Gold."

"this whole scheme is being run out of Basle, Switzerland - The BIS dictates to central banks... and they are above the law."

 

The Financial Stability Board - is inside the BIS

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Bloomberg - ‎2 hours ago‎
A rout in financial stocks was partly fueled by bondholders hedging the riskiest type of banking debt, according to the Bank for International Settlements.

“Movements in the prices of bank securities have been exacerbated by market dynamics,” BIS said in a report published Sunday. Fixed-income investors may have shorted bank stocks to offset potential losses from contingent-convertible, or CoCo, notes, said the Basel, Switzerland-based coordinator of the world’s biggest central banks.

The Stoxx 600 Banks Index has fallen more than 30 percent from a high in July amid concerns about the pace of restructuring and the impact of negative interest rates on profits. CoCos issued by lenders including Deutsche Bank AG, Barclays Plc and Royal Bank of Scotland Group Plc have dropped by as much as 20 cents on the euro this year.

Losses imposed on creditors at Portugal-based Novo Banco SA and at four small Italian lenders in November have also added to bank bondholders’ skittishness, BIS said.

Lenders can be prevented from making coupon payments on some CoCos, known as additional Tier 1 bonds, if they run into financial trouble.

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Will Trump's success in the Primaries delay the stock market crash?

 

THAT was Craig B Hulet's opinion in his recent interview for C2C

 

It has been noticed that we are beginning to see Job losses in Hong Kong, much like early 2008:

 

/ 1 /

BAML, BNP Paribas, Goldman, JP Morgan all cutting bankers and traders in Hong Kong
It’s not been the best start to 2016 for bankers in Hong Kong. Bonuses have been generally poor and now global banks are quietly set to trim more of their underperforming front-office staff.
In a typical year roughly 4% of Hong Kong bankers and traders lose their jobs because they haven’t performed up to scratch over the previous 12 months. But in 2016 this percentage is likely to about double, say headhunters who are speaking to an increasing number of bankers who have been cut or fear they might be soon.

This is all in addition to the much larger-scale layoffs that Barclays, Deutsche Bank and Standard Chartered have already announced in Asia.
Unsurprisingly, Hong Kong will be affected by Goldman Sachs’ decision to axe about 10% of its fixed income staff globally in March, instead of the usual 5%

/ 2 /

My understanding is that it is not just banks that are cutting. Friends of mine who work for major corporations have said that management positions in particular are being axed with lower level staff being asked to take on roles previously undertaken by more senior (expensive) staff. I read recently that this was indeed the case with one of the major airlines. And this has been exacerbated by the outsourcing of so many roles such as security and facilities management as the successful bidder needs to drive down costs, particularly staff costs, to win the tender. I expect the situation to worsen as corporate profits fall or fail to rise due to the world economy and this will most likely impact housing prices.

 

(My reaction was):

 

This reminds me of 2008.
The cracks were appearing early in the year, and then in the summer the bad news flowed, as stock markets crashed. Firms like Lehman Brothers went bust, or got taken over. That's when the worst job losses started...

That may be what lies ahead this year: a stock crash - and hefty job losses.

There's a cycle at work, and the big picture is predictable imho.

The only thing that might now stop the stock crashes - is the elites do not want to make it easier for Trump to get into the White House.

So they may now do all possible now to delay the inevitable crashes into 2017.

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The interviewer tries to dig a bit deeper here

Bo Polny Gold 2020 Forecast Must Watch Interview

 

Published on Mar 1, 2016

Financial analyst Bo Polny from Gold 2020 Forecast goes head to head with Herschel36 in a pre recorded interview recorded on Feb 22nd 2016, exerts of the interview to be played live on Truth is Stranger Than Fiction on The Beat 106fm Weds March 2nd.

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Gerald Celente - speaking sense (again)

 

Gerald Celente 2016 Crash Will be Worse than 2008, History Will Remember This

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=e0u7h0toYxk

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SEVERAL Fed rates rises may be MORE than the market is now expecting

 

picture-122.jpg

Mar 26 – Jim welcomes back technician Gary Dorsch, editor of Global Money Trends. Gary sees the markets still trading in step with crude oil, as both have rebounded nicely from January and February lows this year. He believes the Fed will raise.

 

MP3 : http://www.financialsensenewshour.com/broadcast/fsn2016-0326-1.mp3

 

He believes the Fed will raise rates at the April meeting this year, and likely, at least, one more time after that. Gary thinks the Fed is content to keep the markets in a sideways trading range as it raises rates, and it will speak in a dovish or hawkish manner as needed. Gary also gives his outlook for gold and mentions some key catalysts for its recent upward move. Also in this segment, Ryan Puplava has this week’s Market Wrap-up, and Frank Holmes covers metals and commodities with Jim.

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World faces wave of epic debt defaults, fears central bank veteran

Situation worse than it was in 2007, says chairman of the OECD's review committee

The global financial system has become dangerously unstable and faces an avalanche of bankruptcies that will test social and political stability, a leading monetary theorist has warned.

"The situation is worse than it was in 2007. Our macroeconomic ammunition to fight downturns is essentially all used up," said William White, the Swiss-based chairman of the OECD's review committee and former chief economist of the Bank for International Settlements (BIS).

"Debts have continued to build up over the last eight years and they have reached such levels in every part of the world that they have become a potent cause for mischief," he said.

"It will become obvious in the next recession that many of these debts will never be serviced or repaid, and this will be uncomfortable for a lot of people who think they own assets that are worth something," he told The Telegraph on the eve of the World Economic Forum in Davos.

Mr White said Europe's creditors are likely to face some of the biggest haircuts. European banks have already admitted to $1 trillion of non-performing loans: they are heavily exposed to emerging markets and are almost certainly rolling over further bad debts that have never been disclosed.

The European banking system may have to be recapitalized on a scale yet unimagined, and new "bail-in" rules mean that any deposit holder above the guarantee of €100,000 will have to help pay for it.

More http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/financetopics/davos/12108569/World-faces-wave-of-epic-debt-defaults-fears-central-bank-veteran.html

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SSO / 2x Bull etf on S&P 500 ... update

 

SSO_zpsxl6blrgz.gif

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The Buffett indicator : charted and explained

 

aa_zpsucvlaeqv.gif

 

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Are Stocks 80% Overvalued? New Evidence Shocks Wall Street

  • by JL Yastine
  • April 25, 2016

 

Billionaire Carl Icahn recently threw up a red flag on national broadcast when he declared, “The public is walking into a trap again as they did in 2007.”

Unfortunately, Icahn’s warning is tame compared to his peers.

“U.S. stocks are now about 80% overvalued,” says Andrew Smithers, the chairman of Smithers & Co. He backs up his prediction using a ratio which proves that the only time in history stocks were this risky was 1929 and 1999. And we all know what happened next. Stocks fell by 89% and 50%, respectively.

Sandcastle.300x300.jpg

This simple sandcastle analogy proves an economic collapse is imminent. Click here to see how…

Even the Royal Bank of Scotland says the markets are flashing stress alerts akin to the 2008 crisis. They told their clients to “Sell Everything” because “in a crowded hall, the exit doors are small.”

Stocks like Apple, will plunge.

But there is one distinct warning that should send chills down your spine … that of James Dale Davidson.

As a renowned economist, best-selling author, and founder of Strategic Investment, Davidson makes the strongest case for a looming crisis — “Right now, there are three key economic indicators screaming SELL. They don’t imply that a 50% collapse is looming, it’s already at our doorstep.”

Editor’s Note: Click Here to See the 3 Indicators That Prove a 50% Stock Market Collapse is Looming.

Davidson’s warning is the most alarming of all his peers

==

> more: http://thesovereigninvestor.com/exclusives/stocks-economy-on-verge-of-collapse/?z=486729

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Almost time to take this seriously.

Very long list of inevitable "bad things" due in the near term. (Let's not forget the shipping problems over the new year which are yet to show up in the data)

Every government so over extended that they are going to be lucky to make the pay checks for the police. (Found out last week the UK has been hiding all its debt by revising up 5 year old borrowing)

 

Nothing that likely to drive any growth.

 

And both the DOW and the NASDAQ hitting a top.

 

Think there are a few more upside surprises on individual stocks, but while many have now accepted Apple is in a downtrend, I don't think any of them are aware how much that will propagate to the other indices.

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"Almost time to take this seriously.
Very long list of inevitable "bad things" due in the near term..."

 

THE ELITE's PLAN: To destabilize the US

 

(they are doing it with paid protestors at Trump rallies, etc)

How Anarchy Will Be Used To Wipe Out America

 

"They know damn well they are running out of fuel... They are putting on the parachutes,

while saying: Everything is fine"

"What they are planning to do is to emerge on the other side - after the debt is written off - with all the power"

 

New Ager Simon Parkes has a similar message

2016-05-01 Simon Parkes Q&A I

 

"The US Dollar (and other Western currencies) are on their way to being worthless" - paraphrasing

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"What they are planning to do is to emerge on the other side - after the debt is written off - with all the power"

Eminently sensible..

 

But unlike many of the current conspiracy theorists, I don't see it as particularly orchestrated by some shady 007 "spectre" type organisation.

 

And most of our current "elites" will not emerge on the other side of this with any power at all - not least because a big chunk is a massive shift of power to the east.

 

The likes of Apple and Intel are the modern:

http://www.theborgmatrix.com/ltk/index2.php/Wealth%20of%20Nations/95/4/1

The commodities most proper for being transported to distant countries, in order to purchase there either the pay and provisions of an army, or some part of the money of the mercantile republic to be employed in purchasing them, seem to be the finer and more improved manufactures; such as contain a great value in a small bulk, and can, therefore, be exported to a great distance at little expense. A country whose industry produces a great annual surplus of such manufactures, which are usually exported to foreign countries, may carry on for many years a very expensive foreign war without either exporting any considerable quantity of gold and silver, or even having any such quantity to export. A considerable part of the annual surplus of its manufactures must, indeed, in this case be exported without bringing back any returns to the country, though it does to the merchant; the government purchasing of the merchant his bills upon foreign countries, in order to purchase there the pay and provisions of an army. Some part of this surplus, however, may still continue to bring back a return. The manufacturers, during the war, will have a double demand upon them, and be called upon, first, to work up goods to be sent abroad, for paying the bills drawn upon foreign countries for the pay and provisions of the army; and, secondly, to work up such as are necessary for purchasing the common returns that had usually been consumed in the country. In the midst of the most destructive foreign war, therefore, the greater part of manufactures may frequently flourish greatly; and, on the contrary, they may decline on the return of the peace. They may flourish amidst the ruin of their country, and begin to decay upon the return of its prosperity. The different state of many different branches of the British manufactures during the late war, and for some time after the peace, may serve as an illustration of what has been just now said.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rmk6MxUC8H0

 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Asian_Infrastructure_Investment_Bank

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"The markets are going to collapse (days away)... It will not be pretty" - Bo Polny

 

MUST LISTEN: World Economic Collapse will be SUDDEN and by summer, Gold over $2000! | Bo Polny

 

Jaws of Death Chart:

Dow-Megaphone-from-1990-POPUP.jpg?_ga=1.

 

A target for the Dow: "12,000... but it could go to 6,000"

 

He's has some right calls, but he;s been wrong before too:

> see: http://www.greenenergyinvestors.com/index.php?showtopic=19962

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I am Ringing the Bell : It is Time to put your Puts in Place !

 

LIfe imitates art

2. SPY - update

aa_zpsgaoe4fav.gif

 

 

..........................SPY-10d_zpsihnsovde.gif

 

Bounce is very near key resistance

IWM / Russell-2000 etf ... update

IWM_zpsbuls84l4.gif

 

David Stockman predicts another economic recession

 

"The investor shouldn't be looking for growth, the investor should be looking for cover:"

 

As Stockman said earlier : David Stockman: The World Economy Has Stopped Growing And Is Headed Into A Depression

Market is ready to rollover - is trading ay 24X Trailing Earnings.

There's a huge bubble in the bond market

Conclusion:

I am putting my money where my mouth is, and buying Puts here

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I Loaded up on Puts at the end of last week

 

The "Crazy Growth In Corporate Debt" Is Finally Noticed: Bloomberg Issues Stark Warning

By now it is a well-known fact that corporations have no real way of generating organic profit growth in this economy (the recent plunge in Q1 EPS was a stark reminder of just that), so they are relying on two things to boost share prices: multiple expansion (courtesy of central banks) and debt-funded buybacks (also courtesy of central banks who keep the cost of debt record low), the latter of which requires the firm to generate excess incremental cash. Incidentally, as SocGen showed last year, all the newly created debt in the 21th century has gone for just one thing: to fund stock buybacks.

http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user5/imageroot/2015/11/socgen%20buybacks%201_0.jpg
socgen%20buybacks%201_0.jpg




SOCGEN:

One doesn't have to be a financial guru to grasp that the problem with this "strategy" is that if a firm is going to continue to add debt to its balance sheet in order to fund buybacks (and dividends), then it needs to be able to generate enough operational cash flow in order to service the debt. Even if one makes the argument that debt is cheap right now, which may be true, or that central banks are backstopping it, which is certainly true in Europe as of the ECB's shocking March announcement in which the CSPP was revealed, the fact remains that principal balances come due eventually, and while debt can be rolled over, at some point the inability to generate cash from the operations catches up; furthermore even a small increase in rates means the rolling debt strategy is dies a painful death, as early 2016 showed.

Then, as we showed to months ago using another stunning chart from SocGen's Andy Lapthorne, what has gone largely unnoticed in the recent past, is that the differential between the growth rate of net debt and underlying cash flow or EBITDA, now at a staggering 35%, have never been greater, and in fact "Debt Is Growing Faster Than Cash Flow By The Most On Record." As Andy Lapthorne politely put it in the chart below, there is "crazy growth in net debt."


http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user5/imageroot/2016/05/13/crazy%20growth%20net%20debt_0.jpg
crazy%20growth%20net%20debt_0.jpg



One also does not have to be financial wizard to to know that a firm which has to borrow more than it can generate from core operations is not a sustainable business model, and yet today's CFOs, pundits and central bankers do not.

But more are starting to notice, as the corporate debt pile hits unprecedented proportions.

As Bloomberg writes this morning, when it also issued a stark warning about the next source of credit contagion, while "consumers were the Achilles’ heel of the U.S. economy in the run-up to the last recession. This time, companies may play that role."

Among the warning signs: rising debt, lagging profits and mounting defaults. While the financial vulnerabilities aren’t likely to lead to another downturn soon, economists say they point to potential potholes down the road for an expansion that’s approaching its seventh birthday.

The chart below, very familiar to frequent Zero Hedge readers, is the reason why the next debt crisis will be one where corporations, not individuals, are dragged down. It shows that enticed by record-low interest rates, companies increased total debt by $2.81 trillion over the past five years to a record $6.64 trillion. In 2015 alone, liabilities jumped by $850 billion, 50 times the increase in cash by S&P’s reckoning.


http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user5/imageroot/2016/05/13/corporate%20debt%20bbg_0.png
corporate%20debt%20bbg_0.png

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-1x-1.jpg

 

"people have no confidence in earnings"

 

> xx

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Published on 2 Jun 2016

IN THIS INTERVIEW:
- Financial institutions are destroying capitalism ►0:45
- Banks are running a casino, not stimulating economic growth ►9:09
- The next generation of workers doesn’t care about capitalism ►15:33
- The decreasing standard of living in the U.S. ►22:00
- The rest of the world is on the same path as America ►29:14

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I was recently on Truth Frequency Radio with Joe Joseph and we discussed a number of topics including:

  • The discovery of the Shemitah 7 year cycles and the upcoming collapse, the last Shemitah
  • The impact of technology and the internet
  • Elite planning of society
  • The disastrous war on drugs is a war on people
  • Attempts to control the internet
  • The ongoing devaluation of the US dollar
  • US government bankruptcy
  • Creating a new system that makes the old system obsolete

Joe Joseph is one of the radio hosts who really gets it so it was an enjoyable, interesting and fun conversation. You can see it here.

 

We upload a lot of interviews like this to our Youtube channel that we don’t even mention here in the blog. So, if you want to make sure you don’t miss them, subscribe to our Youtube channel here. We also upload them plus other exclusive content on our Facebook page, so click here to like our page to make sure you don’t miss anything there.

Also, once you’ve clicked “like”, click on the like button again and click on “See First” to make sure you don’t miss our updates. Facebook has begun making sure content like ours isn’t seen by most but if you click “See First” you should still see our content… for now!

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