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Financial crash? : 2017-18 peak / lasting until 2020 -21 ?

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Financial crash coming : 2017 - 2018 Peak/ Decline Lasting until 2020 -22

 

IWM : etf for Russell 2000 ... update

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Nine month cycle?

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http://blog.redefininggod.com/2013/12/06/event-watch-update-17---lindsey-williams-basel-iii-and-grady-means.aspx

 

uhoh.jpg?a=48

 

...It shows how well the current stock market graph matches the graph from 1929. The chart appeared on November 27 in this McClellan Financial Publications article. It was also picked up by Zero Hedge on December 7 in this entry.

As you can see, the graphs bear an uncanny resemblance to each other when you look at the points of inflection, although the match is approximate, not exact. As you can also see, the graphic predicts a market top on or about January 14. And what event is already scheduled to occur on or about January 14? The federal government is scheduled to run out of money and shut down again on January 16.

To get some ballpark dates for the two big plunges that occur in the weeks after January 14, I enlarged the graph on my monitor and broke out a ruler. After measuring that January 14th was 4/16" into the year, I measured that the first big drop was 10/16" into the year, which corresponds to 35 days into the year. That would place the first big down move as occurring on or about February 4. And what events are already scheduled to occur on or about February 4? On February 1, Janet Yellen (a.k.a. "the fall girl") takes the reins of the Federal Reserve, and on February 7, the debt limit suspension ends.

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I don't think that is what the graph is really saying,

 

If I read it correctly, it shows the 1929 Dow raising from 200(ish) to 375(ish) then falling back to 200 (ish)

 

I also think it shows the Dow raising from 13200 (ish) to 15600 (ish)

 

even if it did make 17500 the percentage rise and fall would be no where near the 1929 example and therefore of no relevance.

 

the rest of the post is probably headed for the fringe

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Tony Caldaro has been predicting a Stock Market peak in Q1-2014 for a long time

 

http://blog.redefininggod.com/2013/12/06/event-watch-update-17---lindsey-williams-basel-iii-and-grady-means.aspx

 

uhoh.jpg?a=48

 

...It shows how well the current stock market graph matches the graph from 1929. The chart appeared on November 27 in this McClellan Financial Publications article. It was also picked up by Zero Hedge on December 7 in this entry.

As you can see, the graphs bear an uncanny resemblance to each other when you look at the points of inflection, although the match is approximate, not exact. As you can also see, the graphic predicts a market top on or about January 14. And what event is already scheduled to occur on or about January 14? The federal government is scheduled to run out of money and shut down again on January 16.

To get some ballpark dates for the two big plunges that occur in the weeks after January 14, I enlarged the graph on my monitor and broke out a ruler. After measuring that January 14th was 4/16" into the year, I measured that the first big drop was 10/16" into the year, which corresponds to 35 days into the year. That would place the first big down move as occurring on or about February 4. And what events are already scheduled to occur on or about February 4? On February 1, Janet Yellen (a.k.a. "the fall girl") takes the reins of the Federal Reserve, and on February 7, the debt limit suspension ends.

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http://blog.redefininggod.com/2013/12/06/event-watch-update-17---lindsey-williams-basel-iii-and-grady-means.aspx

 

[update 23 - 10 December 2013]

Congress has reached a bipartisan budget deal, so assuming that it passes, a January government shutdown is off the table. As the article notes, however, the deal does not include an agreement on the debt limit, so a February 7 disruption is still on the calendar.

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The imposition of the Volcker Rule may also raise volatility

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http://blog.redefininggod.com/2013/12/17/event-watch-update-28-yet-another-march-indicator.aspx

Yet another March indicator
Although the January government shutdown appears to have been averted by the likely passage of the budget deal, the February 7 debt limit issue remains unresolved. ...............
..Should the banksters follow the same pattern they used during their last great "crash and consolidate" operation (the Great Depression), we can anticipate that a deal will not be reached by February 7, thus providing pretext for a significant market correction. We can also anticipate talk of a resolution surfacing near the end of February, thereby giving rise to a rally. The deal would fall through in early March, though, pulling the rug from under the market.........

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http://blog.redefininggod.com/2013/12/31/event-watch-update-31-the-sochi-olympics-the-saudis-and-the-debt-limit.aspx

The Sochi Olympics, the Saudis, and the Debt Limit

 

The two recent bombings in Volgograd, Russia have started people talking again about the security of the Sochi Winter Olympic Games and the meeting between Prince Bandar of Saudi Arabia and Putin that took place during the Syria crisis. So just weeks before the Olympics begin, the public is being primed for a potential crisis that could lead to Russia striking the hub of the petrodollar system, Saudi Arabia. And do you know when the Sochi Olympics begin?

On February 7, the same day as the US debt limit deadline.

A terror strike during the Russia-hosted Olympics would provide the perfect pretext for the kickoff of a military conflagration that would parallel the debt limit drama in the US, thus providing a one-two knockout punch combination to the dollar's global reserve status:

1) The petrodollar would be gravely wounded by the destruction in Saudi Arabia.

2) It would receive its coup de grace from a US default, which the Treasury says can occur anytime from late February to early March
(the Olympics end in late February on the 23rd).

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http://www.testosteronepit.com/home/2014/1/9/plagued-by-indigestion-fed-issues-asset-bubble-warning.html

Plagued By Indigestion, Fed Issues Asset-Bubble Warning

Since the financial crisis, the Fed has been buying assets with the express purpose of inflating asset prices and creating that “wealth effect,” however illusory it would be. Trillions would be pocketed by a small number of people, and hopefully, a few droplets would trickle down to the folks who were trying to find jobs and make ends meet. The Fed may not have accomplished much to help the latter, but Macy’s stock – like many other stocks – soared by a factor of ten during the period.

 

Now even the Fed is worried. In the minutes of the December policy meeting, hidden in the middle of an interminable paragraph on page 8 of 25 pages of wooden and convoluted prose, the Fed issued a doozie of a warning.

 

In its own abstruse manner, it admitted that its asset purchases had inflated asset prices to such levels that they’d become “financial vulnerabilities” that were starting to threaten “financial stability and the boarder economy.” They carefully inserted language to the effect that such risks were “moderate” – to avoid an instant panic.....

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Update from Ken

http://blog.redefininggod.com/2014/01/13/event-watch-update-41-cue-the-chinese-war-drums.aspx

 

[update 42 - 13 January 2014]

It looks like we're going to get past the first trip wire without an explosion. Congress has announced that it has reached a spending deal and will begin voting on it Tuesday. Assuming it passes (and given how quiet the whole process has been, I would expect it to), we won't have a government shutdown this month. So barring a sudden military incident (and I'm not expecting anything serious before the Olympics), it appears we'll get through January without any major problems. So far, so good!

 

The one thing that did manifest is a downward move in the stock market as predicted by the chart from Update 19...

uhoh.jpg?a=1

 

...But it doesn't predict any major downward move until the first week in February.

The next booby trap we'll face will be on February 7 when the debt limit suspension ends. And I'll update again if/when the spending bill has finally passed.

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Update:

http://blog.redefininggod.com/2014/01/18/event-watch-update-45-government-shutdown-averted-gold-manipulation-and-sochi.aspx

Government Shutdown Averted, Gold Manipulation, and Sochi
Congress passed and Obama signed the spending bill yesterday, officially ending the possibility of a government shutdown until October. The linked article also references the pending drama of the February 7 debt limit deadline, noting...

"Democrats are sticking to their refusal to consider Republican demands for other fiscal changes in exchange for raising the borrowing limit. Obama told Democratic senators at a White House meeting Jan. 15 that he won’t retreat from that position, Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid told reporters yesterday. 'One thing the president did make very clear yesterday -- and he was extremely emphatic, as he was the last go-round on this -- he, we will not negotiate on extending the debt limit,' said Reid, a Nevada Democrat."

Time will tell if this is the opening shot of a (staged) political conflict over the issue.

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Professor William Black - System is Ungovernable, It has already Largely Imploded

 

Published on Jan 19, 2014

http://usawatchdog.com/jp-morgans-fra... Professor William Black is a former financial regulator and an expert in white collar crime. According to Professor Black, the financial system is headed for an even bigger collapse. As a major warning sign, Professor Black points to Treasury Secretary Jack Lew's recent complaint about no money for regulation in the recent budget deal. Professor Black says, "Jack Lew is the anti-canary in the coal mine because Lew has been gutting regulation for virtually all of his professional life. . . . Lew is saying, my God we've gone so far we're going to cause the collapse of the system. . . . You know when Jack Lew keels over, you know that carbon monoxide has already killed everybody reasonable." Professor Black goes on to say, "The system is ungovernable . . . It has already largely imploded." Join Greg Hunter as he goes One-on-One with Professor William Black, who recently updated and re-released his popular book "The Best Way to Rob a Bank is to Own One."

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Might start on Chinese New Year

http://www.forbes.com/sites/gordonchang/2014/01/19/mega-default-in-china-scheduled-for-january-31/

Mega Default In China Scheduled For January 31

On Friday, Chinese state media reported that China Credit Trust Co. warned investors that they may not be repaid when one of its wealth management products matures on January 31, the first day of the Year of the Horse.

 

The Industrial and Commercial Bank of China sold the China Credit Trust product to its customers in inland Shanxi province. This bank, the world’s largest by assets, on Thursday suggested it will not compensate investors, stating in a phone interview with Reuters that “a situation completely does not exist in which ICBC will assume the main responsibility.”.....

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Thnx, CMJ

I did pick that up in my daily diary. There's a credit drama in China yet to play out.

 

Meantime, Tony C has an identified an alternative Count - which would suggest a SPX Peak is made, or is nearly in place.,

 

Tony Caldaro : MIND THE COUNT ! ... especially the Alternative Count

 

EXCERPT from his latest Weekly Update

 

LONG TERM: bull market

We continue to count this now five year bull market as Cycle wave [1] of Super cycle wave 3. Cycle wave bull markets unfold in five Primary waves. Primary waves I and II completed in 2011, and Primary wave III has been underway since then. This week Primary III not only exceeded Primary I in price, but now also time: 27 months v 26 months. Primary I divided into five Major waves with a subdividing Major wave 1. Primary III has also divided into five Major waves, but both Major waves 1 and 3 subdivided. Since we have been in Major wave 5, without any trend reversals, it is yet to be seen if this one subdivides as well.

spxweekly2.png?w=640&h=484

When Major wave 5 does conclude, ending Primary III, we would expect the biggest correction since 2012. Then after that Primary IV correction ends we would expect a new rally to all time new highs to end the bull market. Currently we are expecting the bull market to top in Q3-Q4 2014 in the mid to upper SPX 1900′s.

MEDIUM TERM: uptrend

The Major wave 5 uptrend that started in the SPX in August, and the DOW in October, continues to unfold. This week the SPX made an all time new high. We have been counting this SPX uptrend quite aggressively, in an attempt to get the SPX and DOW back in sync. We have counted five Minor waves up from SPX 1627 to 1814 to end Intermediate wave i. Then after an Int. wave ii pullback to SPX 1767, we counted Minor waves 1 and 2 at SPX 1849 and 1816 respectively. Minor wave 3 announced its presence on Wednesday with a new high.

spxdaily2.png?w=640&h=484

Since Minor wave 1 was 81 points, we would expect Minor wave 3 to at least equal it. This suggests it could reach the OEW 1901 pivot range before it tops. Minor wave 2 at SPX 1816, met all the technical parameters we were expecting. An oversold daily RSI, a negative cross on the daily MACD, an extremely oversold RSI on the hourly chart, and it found support around SPX 1814. Despite all the positives we have noticed a potential, more conservative, alternate count.

After this volatile week, and Friday’s decline, we just had a chance to take a closer look at the advance in the SPX from its Major wave 4 low in August. We also reviewed the uptrend in the DOW from its Major wave 4 low in October. As a result of the wave activity in both of these major indices we now have a new potential count.

The SPX has risen nine waves, with the ninth currently underway, from its Major wave 4 low. The waves SPX: 1729-1646-1775-1746-1814-1768-1849-1816-1851 so far. The DOW has risen five waves: 16175-15704-16588-16241-16505 so far. Five wave and nine wave structures are normal impulse waves, which could complete, when done, an uptrend. When we look closer at the SPX we observe two strong rallies, and three quite normal rallies. The strong rallies occurred in October and December. If we then consider these potentially third waves, of some degree, we arrive at a significantly different count.

ALTERNATIVE COUNT :

spxalternate.png?w=640&h=484

Notice the October rally could be Intermediate wave iii, since the pullback after that rally did not overlap the previous high...

. . .

If the market were to drop all the way back to SPX 1816 the count will need adjusting.

===

> more: http://caldaro.wordpress.com/2014/01/18/weekend-update-432/

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Demographics expert, Harry Dent, is very Bearish in this recent C2C Podcast

 

"I am staking my reputation on this... We are going to see an even bigger crash" (than 2008)

 

(he does the first part of a "split show")

 

Coast To Coast Am - January 20 2014 - Coming Deflation/ Tall White ETs

= http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VXGaOgrOBzc =

 

He expects stocks to peak before between now and May 2014

 

The Low could be as low as Dow- 5,500

 

ALL his cycles are down over the next Six years

 

"Being short could be one of the best things over the next 2-3 years.

But just being in Cash will be good enough for most people."

 

Old Chart -from Harry Dent, the upturn has lasted longer

 

Dent%20Megaphone%20chart.jpg

 

DOW - latest ... : Dow-since-1987 : SPX

 

uu9.gif

 

Gold and Silver, he does not like.

Longer term, he thinks Gold could go to $700, even $500, or lower ($250?)

Silver could go to $5.50

("Don't sell your gold now. It could rise to $1400 or higher in a few months. Sell then.")

 

"China is the greatest bubble, we have ever seen in history"

"The last place I would want to is China."

 

The bursting of China's Real Estate bubble, will bring the global economy down,

like US Real Estate did in 2008.

 

"When debts get written off, money gets destroyed.
There will be less money, chasing fewer goods.
Even with the money printing we have seen, there has been little or no inflation.
In a few years, you will have a chnace to buy assets at the lowest prices in history."

 

BITCOINS : "It looks like another bubble. The US Currency is not going to die here."

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Real gloomy article here

http://kingworldnews.com/kingworldnews/KWN_DailyWeb/Entries/2014/1/20_Frightening_Reality_Of_Whats_Happening_Around_The_World.html

 

Frightening Reality Of What’s Happening Around The World

 

Egon von Greyerz:

 

“Eric, 2014 will be a year of change and probably a year of shock.

It’s totally amazing that the US stock market is near its highs when risks in the world are greater than ever....

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http://investmentwatchblog.com/the-23-trillion-credit-bubble-in-china-is-starting-to-collapse-global-financial-crisis-next/

The $23 Trillion Credit Bubble In China Is Starting To Collapse – Global Financial Crisis Next?

 

I agree with his conclusion:

In the end, it doesn’t really matter. The truth is that what has been going on in the global financial system is completely and totally unsustainable, and it is inevitable that it is all going to come horribly crashing down at some point during the next few years.

It is just a matter of time.

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We're coming up to Chinese New Year. They'll be wanting cash for the festivities.

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-01-23/china-bank-run-beginning-farmers-co-op-unable-pay-depositors

Is The China Bank Run Beginning? Farmers Co-Op Unable To Pay Depositors

While most of the attention in the Chinese shadow banking system is focused on the Credit Equals Gold #1 Trust's default, as we first brought to investors' attention here, and the PBOC has thrown nearly CNY 400 billion at the market in the last few days, there appears to be a bigger problem brewing. As China's CNR reports, depositors in some of Yancheng City's largest farmers' co-operative mutual fund societies ("banks") have been unable to withdraw "hundreds of millions" in deposits in the last few weeks.

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Many years ago, I was annoyed with my then bank - Williams & Glyns.

So I transferred my account to the bank across the road from them.

I remember telling someone about this and this guy said he knew of other people who were annoyed with the service at that W&G branch.

He said one guy was so angry, he demanded all his money in cash.

The bank manager was very, very upset and scared - it must have been been a very black mark - for the guy had a huge balance.

I don't know the amounts but we're talking about over 35 years ago.

I think he was a rich foreign student with thousands of £.

He got his money but I think that branch had to call up the cash from elsewhere to need his requirements.

I don't know what the rules are now but I would have thought you can insist on withdrawing all your balance if it's from a bank.

I think it's building societies that have a cash limit but I could be wrong here.

Well, how else would you start a bank run?

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Jan. -SPY- : Chg: volume : GLD :Chg: volume x10.36 : WTI.Cr: -DXY-- -Chg- : --TLT--: -Chg- : Posts / Views cum'l
23 : 182.79 - 1.51 : 120.M: 121.79 +2.60 11.0M: 1,261.7 : $97.35* 80.531 - 0.755 : 106.79 +1.49 : 04 : 114 / 171 : 5,605
24 : 178.89 - 3.90 : 184.M: 122.29 +0.50 8.50M: 1,266.9 : $90.00* 80.478 - 0.063 : 107.48 +0.69 : 06 : 120 / 130 : 5,735

 

Big Drops in stocks : about 3% in two days on RISING volume !

 

Is the peak in place?

I shall be looking into that possibility... on DrBubb's Diary

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It said:

As one customer responded: "you shouldn't have to explain to your bank why you want that money. It's not theirs, it's yours."

 

Is that guy correct? I thought they changed the law and any money you deposit in a bank automatically becomes the bank's property. We had a Cyprussing thread where we posted links on various countries introducing legislation to make it perfectly legal for banks to use their depositors' money to settle the bank's liabilities. Eg the USA

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If I were a HSBC customer, I'll transfer all my money elsewhere, then withdraw the lot and hide it under my bed.

I saw an article a few days ago of Chinese peasants doing that with their windfall.

Apparently, it's not very comfy to sleep on top of a bed of money.

There were some lovely photos of the cash.

Wish I had posted that now.

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It said:

As one customer responded: "you shouldn't have to explain to your bank why you want that money. It's not theirs, it's yours."

 

Is that guy correct? I thought they changed the law and any money you deposit in a bank automatically becomes the bank's property. We had a Cyprussing thread where we posted links on various countries introducing legislation to make it perfectly legal for banks to use their depositors' money to settle the bank's liabilities. Eg the USA

 

I think if they do that, they have to dillute the 'ell of their existing shareholders,

And "give" their shareholders new shares in return for whatever deposits they may surrender.

 

A strong bank will not want to "kill" its existing shareholders that way.

 

I think all bank bonuses should be paid out over 5 years or more from the year they are earned,

and then the banksters would be in the queue way behind disgruntled shareholders.

 

Another possibility would be to use the disincentive used in the Middle Ages, sew rocks in their pockets,

and throw the banksters off the bridge, In those days, banksters were slow to forget important lessons

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