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drbubb

Saving Detroit ...and other troubled American cities

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Length of downturns - this was first posted on the Singapore thread

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Haha. Yeah:

"The best time to buy a property is always 5 years ago"

 

Anyone who says something like that is unaware of cycles - which are real and observable - just look at prices over a long enough period.

 

Idiot estate agents will show you a graph going back 10-15 years, showing prices rising over the whole period, and think that this makes a case that prices will go on rising. When I see that, I have a model in my mind: "14 years up, 4 years down... the last 2-3 years of the up-phase are the most dangerous."

 

So if I see 10-12 years of rising market - worse yet: 14 years! - I will be very wary, and want to wait for the drop. That is my attitude towards Hong Kong and Manila right now. I would rather buy in a place like Singapore, after a 3-4 year drop. Even in Singapore, I am somewhat cautious, for reasons that I have described above.

 

"The best time to buy a property is always 5 years ago"

- was definitely not true in Detroit, where in 4-5 years, nearly a decade of gains were wiped out

 

slide05-624x468.jpg

And some houses went down to $100-$1000 in value.

Instead:

"The housing price index in Michigan hit its all time low in 2011. The housing index in Michigan is currently at 139.66, 40 percent higher than its value in 1991. This current index is approximately the same as that from 1997."

> source: http://www.drawingdetroit.com/michigans-housing-price-index-compared/

 

The US House price drop was widespread, and even San Francisco saw a drop of 72 months (= 6 years)

peak-prices-san-francisco-detroit-2.jpg

- so we cannot expect that the entire drop will always be confined to 3-5 years

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Once the lows were in place, prices improved dramatically, even in Detroit

 

fredgraph.png?id=DEXRNSA&nsh=1

 

But they are still below the price levels of 10 years earlier

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DETROIT's Pitch... for Amazon's 2nd HQ

 

With numerous cities offering tax breaks and subsidies (and even hashtagged holidays), does this create a race to the bottom, with Amazon ending up with the city willing to pay the most for the privilege? (It certainly seems less transparent than Toronto’s celebrated victory yesterday in landing Sidewalk Labs as a development partner for a future smart city district, since Toronto offered no subsidies or tax breaks). Is this how we should fund transformative urban development in the United States, a contest to impress a retail giant as opposed to a larger version of the Smart City Challenge, which spurred on progressive tech and city design in multiple cities?

Curbed broke down the good, the bad, and the somewhat embarrassing submissions made by cities around the country.

 

Best production value: Detroit’s “Move Here Move the World” video

 

As a Curbed Detroit reader commented, this plays like a “21st century version of the glossy chamber of commerce brochure.” Produced by Bedrock, the real estate

development firm owned by billionaire Dan Gilbert, a big force in downtown Detroit, it’s glossy, well-narrated, and daresay poignant.

 

Detroit has gotten some positive press for its bid, which is the only trans-national bid, due to the inclusion of Windsor, Canada. Even urbanist Richard Florida listed the city as his sleeper pick. The city seems to be playing off its past, and well as its potential, and this video hits both those points perfectly.

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> https://www.curbed.com/2017/10/19/16504426/amazon-hq2-bid-urban-planning

 

Conor Sen's Top Five Cities : Toronto, Boston, Washington, Atlanta, Dallas - I'm not buying this list !

Five Cities With the Best Shot to Get Amazon

 

Sep.19 -- Conor Sen, a Bloomberg View columnist, discusses the race to become the site of Amazon’s second headquarters and what cities will do to attract companies. He speaks on “What’d You Miss?”

Which cities are front-runners for Amazon's 2nd headquarters?

 

Philadelphia has got to be in the Top 2-3. And may well be the winner

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