Lessons : Blow-ups and Million Dollar Traders

[drbubb]

Lessons : Blow-ups and Million Dollar Traders

=========

 

Keeping it real : Let's start with Speculative Blow-ups : Lessons Learned

- since most of us learn the most from mistakes.

 

Vic Neiderhoffer looks back - and others who suffered big losses have plenty to teach us

 

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=860Rd2BD74U

 

A humbled super speculator Victor Niederhoffer interview after losing everything in the 1997 Financial crisis. Includes a picture of Soros telling him - "I told you so".

 

He made a come back in 2002*, but was caught out once more in 2007.

 

7. I guess not a lucky number for him. Beware in 2017 Mr Niederhoffer!

 

* http://en.wikipedia....or_Niederhoffer

 

----

 

I am not sure of what he did in 1987, but there was a big crash then too.

 

Q: How much did you lose?

 

A: A staggering amount... A staggering amount.

... Less than $100 Million, and more than $1 Million

 

Q: When did you know you had lost it ?

 

A: In the morning of October 28th. 7:30 in the morning on October 28th.

 

I can see his evident pain.

 

But part of me wants to say: "Hey, Vic, it is only money !"

 

The man is a tremendous competitor, as his opponents learned on the squash court.

He truly HATES to lose, which is why this loss may have hit him so deeply.

 

Personally, I think all people, and especially speculators, learn more from their losses than their gains.

 

It seems he was left with a nice home, full of memorable art, if he had to sell many of his trophies.

[drbubb]

If you really want to make a Living as a TRADER - this is a good place to start.

 

The Six Part series by an ex-Goldmans Trader (Anton Kreil) will teach you plenty.

 

Key Lessons:

===

+ It is hard work : long hours, no real social life outside work, if at a bank

+ Banks are not the place to do it (for long)

+ If you start at a bank, you should move in about two years

+ The guy giving the talk now makes his money from TEACHING others, and prefers that

 

Anton Kreil trader interview - ignore the Goldman sachs title, this man traded when he was 16.

 

Part 1 http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9h3lByx59ns

 

Part 2 http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LoIJZEbOLuc

 

Part 3 youtube.com/watch?v=zn-uhqRlLzE

 

Part 4 youtube.com/watch?v=flhma66uw0k

 

Part 5 youtube.com/watch?v=pf5S1nHhlQ4

 

Part 6 youtube.com/watch?v=Fpp-DqnhTzQ

 

Thanks to NotANewMember, who is describing his own efforts as a trader, on his...

 

NANM's BLOG : http://www.greenener...?showtopic=9343

[drbubb]

Million Dollar Traders- Episode 1: Make Me A Trader

 

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=15IH0GlkHWs

 

He bet $1 Million of his own money - on brand new traders - for a BBC series

 

This is very much like a London version of the Turtle Traders

 

Part-1 : Part-2 : Part-3 :

[drbubb]

Interview with Lex van Dam, Financier of BBC Million Dollar Traders

 

Nov 26, 2010

- Lex van Dam discusses his life in the city, why he now thinks it is out of control and investment money is no longer in "safe hands"...

 

Lex van Dam stumbled on his first City job almost by accident but there's been nothing accidental about his success ever since. By contrast, he thinks millions of people who believe their money is in safe hands are taking a massive gamble. Now the man whose TV show Million Dollar Traders proved he could teach complete beginners to outsmart the City experts talks to Paul Mullen about all aspects of his trading experience and the launch of his new trading academy.

 

Paul: = Paul Mullen (Interviewer)

Lex: = Lex van Dam

 

Paul: How did you get started in the trading industry?

 

Lex: I was a student in Holland and I really enjoyed student life. I was not in a rush at all to start working full time, but one summer I did some work experience at investment bank Goldman Sachs in London, and they seemed to like me because they offered me a permanent position. I started there as a trader in 1992.

One of the things that really attracted me to trading is that it is such a level playing field. I might have gone to university but I am competing against lots of people who don’t have a degree, yet are really very clever and may be much better traders. That’s the real fun of it - that you are fighting against the others and together you are all fighting against the market. That is why I love trading.

. . .

Paul: You have mentioned hedge fund management, what is a hedge fund manager and what do you do?

 

Lex: A hedge fund manager manages money on behalf of clients. He or she is expected to make money when markets go up and make money when markets go down. Making money when the markets go up is easy, but doing it when stocks are falling is much harder for most people.

 

However, you will not have longevity as a money manager unless you are able to go both long and short. And for an individual investor I would say that being able to bet on a stock going down as well as up is a necessary tool in your arsenal as well, even if it is to protect an investment or trading portfolio during dangerous periods.

I specialise in stocks and run a global long-short fund. However over the years I have also traded fixed income, currencies, commodities and credit.

[notanewmember]

Anton Kreil

Notably,

He mentions that volatility is the key to profits. More volatility = more profit opportunities.

 

This is GOLD. He says that historically, over time the equity market is more volatile than the Forex market. This is great news, as I find that Forex is very difficult to make money as I have mentioned before. Sure most people find they can be more leveraged in Forex than in equities, but this does not equate to increased profits! The breakout systems rely on trends forming, however the big G8 currencies tend to be non-trending mostly, and trade within a range. The more exotic currencies however do trend over a long time. I touched briefly on this looking at the Vietnamese currency Vs GBP Sterling over 5 years.

 

I take comfort that I can leave the Forex market, and concentrate on equities and commodities.

[drbubb]

Notably,

He mentions that volatility is the key to profits. More volatility = more profit opportunities.

 

This is GOLD. He says that historically, over time the equity market is more volatile than the Forex market. This is great news...

 

I take comfort that I can leave the Forex market, and concentrate on equities and commodities.

This should be a good place to discuss that, and the Lessons you learn along the way.

Here's an old line I would like to repeat here:

 

"All traders are geniuses in a Bull Market - So find a Bull market." ( And RIDE it! Gold may have hit the Reset.)

 

 

I SEE there was a SECOND SEASON - well that's what they called it anyway.

 

It was a series of lectures for those who want to become traders.

 

The LEX VAN DAM Trading Academy.

 

Here is the first part

 

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=33ctV9CLGFk

[notanewmember]

Another lesson I knew about, and only realised yesterday, is that Paul Tudor Jones uses (and Ed Seykota, *Jesse Livermore), is to never average down. Never dollar cost average! Only pyramid up!

 

Why Paul Tudor Jones, this picture gives it away:

 

Losers Average Losers - I.e losing traders average losing trades.

 

 

 

*I have warned against averaging losses. That is a most common practice.

Great numbers of people will buy a stock, let us say at 50, and two or three days later if they can buy it at 47 they are seized with the urge to average down by buying another hundred shares, making a price of 48.5 on all.

Having bought at 50 and being concerned over a three-point loss on a hundred shares, what rhyme or reason is there in adding another hundred shares and having the worry double when the price hits 44?

At that point there would be a $600 loss on the first hundred shares and a $300 loss on the second hundred shares.

If one is to apply such an unsound principle, he should keep on averaging by buying two hundred shares at 44, then four hundred at 41, eight hundred at 38, sixteen hundred at 35, thirty-two hundred at 32, sixty-four hundred at 29 and so on.

 

 

How many speculators could stand such pressure?

So, at the risk of repetition and preaching, let me urge you to avoid averaging down… Why send good money after bad?

Keep that good money for another day. Risk it on something more attractive than an obviously losing deal.

 

 

---

 

Who else blew up when they averaged down?

 

LTCM - borrowed $100bn to keep their positions open because they believed market prices would return to "normal" in the end. They averaged their losses until the losses got bigger and bigger! These are Nobel prize winning geniuses who had to be bailed out by the FED. Skip to 39 minutes.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tsZRndV5lIc

 

Nick Leeson, kept piling on the long bets on the Nikkei as it was tanking, which took down Barings Bank. Nick Leeson asked his superiors to borrow more money. The key bit is 39 minutes in also.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xfdtK-B_c7c

 

 

Don't borrow to stay in a trade....i.e. Never meet a margin call - get out of the trade and move on.

[Van]

Never add to a losing position is #1 rule of my trading plan.

 

I love this quote fro Ed Seykota:

 

Fundamentalists and anticipators may have difficulties with risk control because a trade keeps looking ‘better’ the more it goes against them.

 

The temptation is always to add to a losing position because it seems more and more right if you are getting a cheaper and cheaper entry point, but this is the path to ruin.

[drbubb]

I am going to do my own version of the Trading Show .

 

I call it: PAIRS Trading portfolio - let's see if I can beat their Flat performance

 

http://www.greenenergyinvestors.com/index.php?showtopic=18074

[Perishabull]

Lessons : Blow-ups and Million Dollar Traders

=========

 

Keeping it real : Let's start with Speculative Blow-ups : Lessons Learned

- since most of us learn the most from mistakes.

 

Vic Neiderhoffer looks back - and others who suffered big losses have plenty to teach us

 

 

 

Q: How much did you lose?

 

A: A staggering amount... A staggering amount.

... Less than $100 Million, and more than $1 Million

 

Q: When did you know you had lost it ?

 

A: In the morning of October 28th. 7:30 in the morning on October 28th.

 

I can see his evident pain.

 

But part of me wants to say: "Hey, Vic, it is only money !"

 

The man is a tremendous competitor, as his opponents learned on the squash court.

He truly HATES to lose, which is why this loss may have hit him so deeply.

 

Personally, I think all people, and especially speculators, learn more from their losses than their gains.

 

It seems he was left with a nice home, full of memorable art, if he had to sell many of his trophies.

 

It doesn't say how he got into trouble. He sold naked puts and then made the fatal mistake of telling someone about his position, the information got into the market and he was forced out at a huge loss.

 

from http://www.gladwell.com/2002/2002_04_29_a_blowingup.htm

 

"A month or so before he blew up, Taleb had dinner with Niederhoffer at a restaurant in Westport, and Niederhoffer told him that he had been selling naked puts. You can imagine the two of them across the table from each other, Niederhoffer explaining that his bet was an acceptable risk, that the odds of the market going down so heavily that he would be wiped out were minuscule, and Taleb listening and shaking his head, and thinking about black swans. "I was depressed when I left him," Taleb said. "Here is a guy who goes out and hits a thousand backhands. He plays chess like his life depends on it. Here is a guy who, whatever he wants to do when he wakes up in the morning, he ends up better than anyone else. Whatever he wakes up in the morning and decides to do, he did better than anyone else. I was talking to my hero . . ." This was the reason Taleb didn't want to be Niederhoffer when Niederhoffer was at his height -- the reason he didn't want the silver and the house and the tennis matches with George Soros. He could see all too clearly where it all might end up. In his mind's eye, he could envision Niederhoffer borrowing money from his children, and selling off his silver, and talking in a hollow voice about letting down his friends, and Taleb did not know if he had the strength to live with that possibility. Unlike Niederhoffer, Taleb never thought he was invincible. You couldn't if you had watched your homeland blow up, and had been the one person in a hundred thousand who gets throat cancer, and so for Taleb there was never any alternative to the painful process of insuring himself against catastrophe."

 

and from http://www.derivativesstrategy.com/magazine/archive/1998/0398shrt.asp

 

"In the volatile market of October 1997, Niederhoffer sold puts on the Standard & Poor's 500 in size with the expectation that the market would rebound. It eventually did, but not before dropping 7 percent on October 27. Niederhoffer's 20,000 S&P puts obliterated his fund."

 

Having read Taleb he comes across as a fellow rather jealous of those at the pinnacle of success in the market and I think it's no co-incidence whatsoever that shortly after Niederhoffer released details of his position to Taleb, the market forced him out of it, wiping him out in the process.

 

 

 

A similar situation may be happening right now with Ackman vs Icahn. Ackman went public with his 20 million share short position on Herbalife (HLF) and it seems Carl Icahn is now using that information to punish Ackman for screwing him in a previous business deal.

 

from http://www.forbes.co...herbalife-trade

 

"Carl Icahn Is Squeezing Bill Ackman To Death With Herbalife Trade

 

 

Last week, billionaire investor Carl Icahn sat on a stage at New York’s Pierre Hotel and was feeling so good about his bet on Herbalife HLF +1.72%that he almost sounded

magnanimous towards his biggest Wall Street rival, the billionaire hedge fund manager William Ackman. “I like Ackman,” Icahn said. “Anybody that makes me a quarter billion dollars I like.”

 

During his talk, televised on CNBC, Icahn carefully explained his approach to investing this year in Herbalife, the controversial nutritional supplements seller that Ackman has been vocally shorting in a massive way. Icahn and Ackman, of course, don’t like each other at all, but their big duel over Herbalife has turned into a one-sided affair so far in 2013.

 

Shares of Herbalife surged higher on Monday, rising by more than 6% to $59.39. The stock is now up 80% in 2013 and has increased to its highest level since David Einhorn, another prominent billionaire hedge fund manager, first questioned Herbalife’s business model on one of the company’s conference calls more than one year ago. There has been no news from the company in recent days as the stock has exploded, rising more than 20% in the last six trading days, suggesting the trading in the stock is perhaps being driven by increasing skepticism about the big short thesis on Herbalife.

 

During the epic verbal battle between Icahn and Ackman that was televised on CNBC in January, Icahn predicted that Ackman’s Herbalife investment could produce the “mother of all short squeezes.” Shortly after that incident, it became clear that Icahn had taken a big position in Herbalife’s stock. He has since expanded that position, bought 16.5% of the outstanding shares and gotten two representatives on Herbalife’s board. Last week Icahn suggested that the “daughter” of all short squeezes had already begun in Herbalife’s stock"

 

 

Ackman's Pershing Square may yet be the next big blowup.

[drbubb]

It doesn't say how he got into trouble. He sold naked puts and then made the fatal mistake of telling someone about his position, the information got into the market and he was forced out at a huge loss.

 

from http://www.gladwell.com/2002/2002_04_29_a_blowingup.htm

 

"A month or so before he blew up, Taleb had dinner with Niederhoffer at a restaurant in Westport, and Niederhoffer told him that he had been selling naked puts. You can imagine the two of them across the table from each other, Niederhoffer explaining that his bet was an acceptable risk, that the odds of the market going down so heavily that he would be wiped out were minuscule, and Taleb listening and shaking his head, and thinking about black swans. "I was depressed when I left him," Taleb said. "Here is a guy who goes out and hits a thousand backhands. He plays chess like his life depends on it. Here is a guy who, whatever he wants to do when he wakes up in the morning, he ends up better than anyone else. Whatever he wakes up in the morning and decides to do, he did better than anyone else. I was talking to my hero . . ." This was the reason Taleb didn't want to be Niederhoffer when Niederhoffer was at his height -- the reason he didn't want the silver and the house and the tennis matches with George Soros. He could see all too clearly where it all might end up. In his mind's eye, he could envision Niederhoffer borrowing money from his children, and selling off his silver, and talking in a hollow voice about letting down his friends, and Taleb did not know if he had the strength to live with that possibility. Unlike Niederhoffer, Taleb never thought he was invincible. You couldn't if you had watched your homeland blow up, and had been the one person in a hundred thousand who gets throat cancer, and so for Taleb there was never any alternative to the painful process of insuring himself against catastrophe."

 

and from http://www.derivativesstrategy.com/magazine/archive/1998/0398shrt.asp

 

"In the volatile market of October 1997, Niederhoffer sold puts on the Standard & Poor's 500 in size with the expectation that the market would rebound. It eventually did, but not before dropping 7 percent on October 27. Niederhoffer's 20,000 S&P puts obliterated his fund."

Very interesting.

 

Years ago, in the early days of the internet, and before Victor blew up the first time, I was on his email list - hoping to learn something from his trading strategy, and his philosophical view of life. I was mostly a reader of it - like most others - but occasionally, I would share my own views of the market, to see if he would take any notice of them. I few times he did. And I was grateful for his reactions.

 

One thing I do recall was his willingness to enter big trades, and stand against the crowd. He often spoke about the big institutions, and how they would behave like a herd of elephants - first thundering in one direction, and then turning on a dime, and thundering back in the same direction that they had just come from. He would often bet on those reversals when the technical readings became extreme enough. I reckon that was just the sort of trade that blew up his fund, and the historical account confirms it.

 

In the present market, he would probably have sold Puts on Gold and/or Gold shares. If he got the timing perfectly right, it might have worked well. But for me, I saw several times where gold seemed deeply oversold, and then it just fell further. I see the possibility of strong reversal, and I prefer to play it in a Nassim Taleb-like way, buying options (Calls), rather than selling naked puts.

: Reviews

 

I also met Taleb twice. Once in NY and once in London, when he was a speaker at a Junto event, and I was invited by the organisers. I always got the impression that he was little impressed by traders and Hedge Fund managers, and especially the ones with huge positions, and even bigger egos. But I can understand why he likes Niederhoffer, who seeks wisdom and lessons from his trading, and always seemed willing to share what he learned from others.

 

To be honest, Niederhoffer's email list was one of the things that I was thinking about when I set up GEI. Goodness knows, it was not a real business proposition. Instead it was a chance to share with others. And to occasionally be very happily surprised by the unexpected things that I would learn in return from those who post here.

[Perishabull]

 

from http://www.forbes.co...herbalife-trade

 

"Carl Icahn Is Squeezing Bill Ackman To Death With Herbalife Trade

 

 

Last week, billionaire investor Carl Icahn sat on a stage at New York’s Pierre Hotel and was feeling so good about his bet on Herbalife HLF +1.72%that he almost sounded

magnanimous towards his biggest Wall Street rival, the billionaire hedge fund manager William Ackman. “I like Ackman,” Icahn said. “Anybody that makes me a quarter billion dollars I like.”

 

During his talk, televised on CNBC, Icahn carefully explained his approach to investing this year in Herbalife, the controversial nutritional supplements seller that Ackman has been vocally shorting in a massive way. Icahn and Ackman, of course, don’t like each other at all, but their big duel over Herbalife has turned into a one-sided affair so far in 2013.

 

Shares of Herbalife surged higher on Monday, rising by more than 6% to $59.39. The stock is now up 80% in 2013 and has increased to its highest level since David Einhorn, another prominent billionaire hedge fund manager, first questioned Herbalife’s business model on one of the company’s conference calls more than one year ago. There has been no news from the company in recent days as the stock has exploded, rising more than 20% in the last six trading days, suggesting the trading in the stock is perhaps being driven by increasing skepticism about the big short thesis on Herbalife.

 

During the epic verbal battle between Icahn and Ackman that was televised on CNBC in January, Icahn predicted that Ackman’s Herbalife investment could produce the “mother of all short squeezes.” Shortly after that incident, it became clear that Icahn had taken a big position in Herbalife’s stock. He has since expanded that position, bought 16.5% of the outstanding shares and gotten two representatives on Herbalife’s board. Last week Icahn suggested that the “daughter” of all short squeezes had already begun in Herbalife’s stock"

 

 

Ackman's Pershing Square may yet be the next big blowup.

 

 

Looks like Ackman is screwed now - the sharks are circling;

 

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/herbalife-shares-jump-7-on-news-of-soros-stake-2013-07-31-11912729

 

"Herbalife shares jump 7% on news of Soros stake

 

 

NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- Herbalfe Inc. HLF +9.09% shares jumped 7% on news that

billionaire investor George Soros has taken a large long position in the firm, according to a report in CNBC. This pits yet another billionaire investor against activist investor and Pershing Square founder Bill Ackman who has famously called the firm an illegal pyramid scheme, a charge the firm denies. Ackman, who has reportedly shorted 20 million shares in the global nutrition and weight management firm, has questioned several financial aspects of the firm. Soros joins outspoken billionaire Carl Icahn as the latest high-profile investor to take a stake in Herbalife."

[Perishabull]

Looks like Ackman is screwed now - the sharks are circling;

 

http://www.marketwat...-07-31-11912729

 

"Herbalife shares jump 7% on news of Soros stake

 

 

NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- Herbalfe Inc. HLF +9.09% shares jumped 7% on news that

billionaire investor George Soros has taken a large long position in the firm, according to a report in CNBC. This pits yet another billionaire investor against activist investor and Pershing Square founder Bill Ackman who has famously called the firm an illegal pyramid scheme, a charge the firm denies. Ackman, who has reportedly shorted 20 million shares in the global nutrition and weight management firm, has questioned several financial aspects of the firm. Soros joins outspoken billionaire Carl Icahn as the latest high-profile investor to take a stake in Herbalife."

 

Good lord, what an idiot Ackman has been in actually declaring to the market the size of his short position;

 

Short interest on Herbalife;

 

 

"Fresh Squeeze? Ackman Questions Soros' Buy of Herbalife

 

Read more: http://www.foxbusine.../#ixzz2agoIbxf4

 

 

Are some investors manufacturing a “short squeeze” in shares of Herbalife (HLF) in order to force activist investor William Ackman to capitulate on his massive bet against the health-product manufacturer?

 

Those representing Ackman think so, and they’re pressing officials in the New York office of the Securities and Exchange Commission to investigate, people with knowledge of the matter tell the FOX Business Network.

 

Ackman’s representatives are pointing to what they say is the curious timing of the latest investor to take a big stake in the company — and drive shares of Herbalife higher, thus further eroding Ackman’s short position (in a short sale, investors make money betting that stock prices will decline.)

 

On Monday, hedge fund titan George Soros took a large “long” position in the company, joining investor Carl Icahn and others who are also betting against Ackman, people close to the matter say. Ackman’s legal representative told SEC officials that Soros' position came as his representatives held a series of “idea meetings” with other potential Herbalife investors.

 

Shares of Herbalife have soared more than 44% since July 1; on Monday, Herbalife reported strong second-quarter earnings prompting further gains. Shares gained more than 8% on the Soros news."

[drbubb]

Ackman's in trouble on HLF, I would say... He's being "short-squeezed"

 

At over $40, HLF looks bullish. AT over $50, even more so.

And the Momentum traders may even be coming in now.

 

HLF : $65.50 +5.45 / +9.09% -- Y:1.83% / PE : 13.9

52 wk range : 24.24 - 66.50

 

HLF / HerbaLife - (UP) ... Cal'13 : 3 years

 

[Perishabull]

For anyone this isn't aware of the Ackman vc Icahn saga watch this - it's pure comedy gold RE Herbalife. I was trading the day this happened and happened to have CNBC on that day...

 

 

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=068YtjdZTY0

[notanewmember]

Ackman's in trouble on HLF, I would say... He's being "short-squeezed"

 

At over $40, HLF looks bullish. AT over $50, even more so.

And the Momentum traders may even be coming in now.

 

HLF : $65.50 +5.45 / +9.09% -- Y:1.83% / PE : 13.9

52 wk range : 24.24 - 66.50

 

HLF / HerbaLife - (UP) ... Cal'13 : 3 years

 

 

Regardless of who is the bad guy, good guy. HLF is coming up to some overhead resistance at 70 - it may reverse if he can hold on!

It is up to 65 today.

 

---

 

It reminds me of the Mike Tyson Vs ? , and the pre-match media boxing brawls. A good "show", but in my mind there is a small possibility that the 3 got together to make good television. Hasn't CNBC viewings dropped in the last few years? It wouldn't surprise me if Ackman and Ichman were sitting in the next studio on the same table!

 

In the US you may see similar in WWE

 

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=10Q6qe-Tywk

Stone Cold Steve Austin and The Rock are always having arguements!

[drbubb]

John Paulsen's Huige GOLD TRADE is a type of Blow-up:

 

Hedge Fund Billionaire John Paulson Lost $736M In Second ...

 

8 hours ago - John Paulson is one of the most renown gold bulls, making it really bad for him when the yellow metal tanks in value, as it did dramatically in ..

 

The second quarter was by no means a time to own gold, and billionaire hedge fund manager John Paulson knows it. While he cut his major position in the yellow metal by half, selling nearly 12 million shares in the largest gold ETF worth $1.38 billion at the end of the quarter, he lost at least $736 million in his cumulative positions through the three months ending with the month of June.

 

Paulson’s largest losses would be attributed to his massive position in the SPDR Gold Trust ETF, where he would’ve lost $360 million on the 10.24 million shares he was still holding by the end of the quarter, when compared to prices at the end of Q1. The hedge fund manager closed the first quarter with a 21.8 million-share position in the largest gold-backed ETF.

 

Hedge Fund Billionaires John Paulson And David Einhorn Lost $640M In Gold Market Collapse Agustino Fontevecchia Forbes Staff

 

Gold is having its worst year in a decade, after rallying consistently, first on the back of a weakening dollar, and then supported by Ben Bernanke’s consistent money printing. Yet 2013 saw bullion prices completely break down, particularly in mid-April when spot gold tumbled $200 in a few trading sessions. At the time, Paulson and fellow hedgie billie David Einhorn would’ve lost $640 million if their positions at the end of the first quarter remained unchanged. The yellow metal is down more than 20% year-to-date.

[notanewmember]

David Einhorn - Held onto losing Apple trade.

[notanewmember]

John Paulsen's Huige GOLD TRADE is a type of Blow-up:

 

Hedge Fund Billionaire John Paulson Lost $736M In Second ...

 

8 hours ago - John Paulson is one of the most renown gold bulls, making it really bad for him when the yellow metal tanks in value, as it did dramatically in ..

 

The second quarter was by no means a time to own gold, and billionaire hedge fund manager John Paulson knows it. While he cut his major position in the yellow metal by half, selling nearly 12 million shares in the largest gold ETF worth $1.38 billion at the end of the quarter, he lost at least $736 million in his cumulative positions through the three months ending with the month of June.

 

Paulson’s largest losses would be attributed to his massive position in the SPDR Gold Trust ETF, where he would’ve lost $360 million on the 10.24 million shares he was still holding by the end of the quarter, when compared to prices at the end of Q1. The hedge fund manager closed the first quarter with a 21.8 million-share position in the largest gold-backed ETF.

I want to know his average buy price - does anyone know off the top of their head when he started buying gold?

 

If his loss was greater than 20% then where was the risk control? I take it no trade plan was used. Although perhaps this big sale might be capitulation is moves us on to the next stage of the gold cycle.

[drbubb]

I want to know his average buy price - does anyone know off the top of their head when he started buying gold?

 

If his loss was greater than 20% then where was the risk control? I take it no trade plan was used. Although perhaps this big sale might be capitulation is moves us on to the next stage of the gold cycle.

 

Perhaps he bought into the "Never, ever, sell your Gold" Theory

 

And that's the same thing as : "No Trade Plan"

 

Paulsen's loss is one outcome.

Another is Bob Chapman's, a brilliant analyst, who proud rode Silver up from $20 to $50 and back down again.

And then passed away as gold was headed back to $20 and lower. Perhaps his executor broke even on the trade

[drbubb]

RETAIL Business is not easy - Just ask Bill Ackmann

 

 

Ackman poised for $504 million loss on J.C. Penney sale

 

The Canadian Press

 

NEW YORK _ J.C. Penney's (NYSE: JCP, Stock Forum) biggest investor, William Ackman, plans to sell his entire stake in the struggling department store operator for about $504.4 million _ which represents a loss of around $470 million.

Pershing Square Capital Management's Ackman disclosed in a regulatory filing late Monday that he was going to sell his nearly 18 per cent interest _ or 39.1 million shares.

 

On Tuesday, Ackman said that the shares will be priced at $12.90 each, about 3 per cent below Monday's $13.35 closing price. The stock declined 28 cents, or 2.1 per cent, to $13.07 in premarket trading Tuesday.

 

Ackman acquired about 39.1 million shares of J.C. Penney in 2010, according to filing with the Securities and Exchange Commission. He paid about $25 per share, Pershing said Tuesday.

 

J.C. Penney's shares have lost nearly 70 per cent of their value since early February 2012 when investor enthusiasm over former CEO Ron Johnson's retail strategy pushed the stock to around $43. That includes a 32 per cent drop in value so far this year.

 

The move comes two weeks after Ackman resigned from J.C. Penney Co.'s board as part of a deal to resolve an unusually public battle between the activist investor and the retailer.

 

Ackman's sell-off comes as the beleaguered chain is trying to recover from a botched transformation plan spearheaded by its former CEO that led to disastrous financial results. The board ousted Johnson in April after only 17 months on the job and rehired Mike Ullman, who had been CEO of the Plano, Texas, retailer from 2004 to late 2011.

 

Ackman resigned from the board on Aug. 13, after he went public with statements saying he'd lost confidence in J.C. Penney's board and that Chairman Thomas Engibous should be replaced. Ackman and the retailer's board also were bickering over how quickly the company should replace Ullman, who is expected to be an interim CEO.

 

Ackman joined its board in February 2011 and had pushed the board to hire Johnson, a mastermind of Apple Inc.'s successful stores. Under Johnson's leadership, J.C. Penney got rid of most sales in favour of everyday low prices. He also brought in hip new brands and planned to remake the store as an indoor mini mall of sorts with 100 different in-store shops in an effort to woo trendier, more affluent shoppers. But those efforts alienated the company's loyal customers.

 

Read more at http://www.stockhous...KTd6wj88WEyv.99

[drbubb]

Ackman suffers a 50% loss on JC Penney stake

 

USA TODAY - ‎1 hour ago‎

Hedge fund manager Bill Ackman's expensive experiment at J.C. Penney is over. Ackman's Pershing Square disclosed Wednesday it sold its 39.1 million shares to Citigroup for $12.60 a share, ...

[Perishabull]

Ackman's in trouble on HLF, I would say... He's being "short-squeezed"

 

At over $40, HLF looks bullish. AT over $50, even more so.

And the Momentum traders may even be coming in now.

 

HLF : $65.50 +5.45 / +9.09% -- Y:1.83% / PE : 13.9

52 wk range : 24.24 - 66.50

 

HLF / HerbaLife - (UP) ... Cal'13 : 3 years

 

 

"Herbalife's Shares Soar To New Highs After Belgian Court Ruling"