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Historical Data : S&P 500, Gold, Bonds / and LT Charts

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Historical Data : S&P 500, Gold / and Charts

spxp.jpg

SPX / S&P 500 ... update

spxko.gif

Irrational Exhuberance Chart / Robert Shiller
hans_wagner_26_2b.jpg
SPX Data w/ adjustments : http://www.econ.yale...ata/ie_data.xls

Average Monthly Performance Since 1971

Return in January has been 1.14%
Return in February has been -0.1%
Return in March has been 1.18%
Return in April has been 1.49%
Return in May has been 0.14%
Return in June has been -0.02%
Return in July has been 0.96%
Return in August has been -0.01%
Return in September has been -0.52%
Return in October has been 0.74%
Return in November has been 1.5%
Return in December has been 1.7%

===
/source : http://www.davemanue...orical-data.php

Historical Data
(SPX Prices)
Google ------ : http://www.google.co...?q=INDEXSP:.INX
DaveManuel : http://www.davemanue...00-trade-on.php
Robt. Shiller : http://www.econ.yale...hiller/data.htm

(Gold prices)
Back to 1833 : http://www.kitco.com...oricalgold.html

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Updated, using Shiller's spreadsheet

 

spxm.jpg

 

For those who think: "Stocks are cheap", you'd better think again.

Dividend yields are below the level they were at back in 1929, before the great Wall Street Crash.

We are only tolerating such low yields because of "Financial Repression" - ie record low interest rates.

 

spxdivyield.jpg

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The Gold-to-Dividends Ratio

 

This Ratio is something that has made great intuitive sense to me for a long time.

I have wanted to look at it over many decades, but I did not have the data to do that until I stumbled across the Excel spreadsheet on Professor Shiller's website earlier today. (I spend most of the afternoon adding the Monthly Gold data, so now I am able to run the chart):

 

goldtospxdivs.jpg

 

I find the chart very revealing.

 

Trigger Levels:

======

 

+ Below 20, you want to be Selling Stocks, and Buying Gold

+ Approaching 80 or higher, you want to by Selling Gold and Buying Stocks

 

Current Level:

Gold ($1,600) to SPX-divs ($31.25) is: 51.20

 

Recent High was: August 2011

Gold ($1923.70) to SPX-divs ($24.90-Aug.'11) was: 77.25, or

Gold ($1923.70) to SPX-divs ($24.62-July'11) was: 78.13.

 

The record high was 1980, when the Ratio near 120 :1 at the beginning of 1980.

 

For 15 months (from Dec.1979 to Feb.1981) it was above 80, providing a long exit window.

 

A long slide in the Gold price, culminating in Gordon Brown's selling 60% of the UK Gold reserves between 1999 and 2002, helped to provide a nice long Gold buying window. The Gold-to-SPX-dividends ratio was below 20 for over 5 years from Nov. 1997 to Dec. 2002. The low Ratio was Aug. 1999, when Gold was $256.70 and Dividends were 16.38. for a low Ratio of 15.67.

 

Assuming SPX Dividends of 32, some Gold price Targets can be generated, as follows:

 

Rx 80 : $2,560

Rx100: $3,200

Rx120: $3,840

 

I note Jim Sinclair's targets (as follows)- is he using something similar to this Ratio ?

 

(Some NOTES, received by email):

REASONS TO BAIL OUT OF GOLD:

“The only argument I can see to bail out of gold would be the legitimate end of QE”.

ON TIMING AND PRICE:

“Anything below $3,500 is a buy. Anything above $4,400 is a sell”.*

CHINA:

“I think China will shoot for a 15% reserves position in gold”.

 

If SPX-divs climb to 35.00, then $3,500 is 100x and $4,400 is 125.7x

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Time to update this old chart?

 

Divs (Mar'15) : $ 40.81
Gold price --- : $1,187.2 / 40.81 = 29.09
Gold (Mar'15) : $1,185.5 / 40.81 = 29.05

 

goldtospxdivs2_zpsitz7pbwc.jpg

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Gold's looking cheap versus bonds.


And at 29x Dividends, maybe cheap versus Stocks too.



But we thought that before, and Gold did not move.


What will make it happen this time?


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MONEY Has to go somewhere - A look at three key asset major classes

 

Gold, Bonds, Stocks ... update- from 11/4/2007 :: Four, w/OilB : 5/ w/DXY

TLT-vsGLDxSPY2_zpsmqwbh13k.gif

 

+ In March 2009, people were worried about a Depression

+ In August 2011, people were worried about inflation and money exiting the USD

+ In March 2015, there was massive complacency, and people were rushing into USD assets,

like stocks and bonds

 

5 Assets / DXY (the USD etf, basically moves up and Down with Bond, and Oil falls help TLT & DXY

TLT-vs4assets_zpsxouoiua4.gif

 

One thing that could help trigger another rally in the USD /DXY... and TLT /Bonds, would be a drop in Oil prices.

That might also drag Gold lower, and could ultimately lead to a Lower "Max Apathy" point. So watch Oil !

(Note: OILB : is the etf for Brent Crude, which is probably now the best benchmark for world oil prices, not WTI.

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Some interesting analysis above - and also a recent piece from Tony Caldaro on when bond prices might peak - which he expects imminently should the 34 year bond price cycle play out (I appreciate many have been waiting for the bond market to turn for a considerable while).

 

If you were planning to invest for the very long term - ie to create an income that you could draw via capital gains from time to time would an investment in an inverse bond fund be a potentially good investment if well timed now? Tony notes that at its low the 30 year bond was 2.23% and its high was 15.21% in 1981. (around 3% now) So if you could buy an inverse tracker now and hold into either a bond market spike or for the very long term until Interest rates "normalise" would that not be a better investment than chasing assets with high prices and low yields (shares, corporate bonds, or property etc).

 

Tony also argues that the 1 yr bond leads the rest of the rates including the Fed Funds rate.

 

What rate would you buy to maximise volatility and hence profits (1yr, 10 yr etc) and would you wait until the first US IR rise to wait for the adverse market reaction to the rise and hence potential fall in bond prices before taking on such an investment?

 

Interested in thoughts

 

Lev

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TONY C on Bonds:

=====

"Once the 30YR yield (TYX) rises above a previous high (4%)... the bear market in yields is over"

 

TYX_zpssdreptl4.gif

 

Bond yields tend to move in 34 year cycles and there is very little sound data to go on much past the last 50 years, comparisons between the two maturities are limited to the 1981 yield peak. Then the 10YR and 30YR peaked within weeks of each other in the fall of 1981. They, amazing as it may sound, have been gradually declining for the past 34 years. When one considers the peak 30YR yield in 1981 was 15.21% and the recent low was 2.23%. It is quite clear, on average, yields do not move much at all. When compared to the stock market, for example, the DOW has risen from 1,000 to 18,000 during the same period.

30yr.png?w=640&h=485

. . .

During the entire decline from 1981-2015 the 30YR yield has made a steady series of lower highs. In fact, every high in yield has run into resistance at the monthly 89EMA. Notice how yields have risen into that EMA, get slightly above (less than 50 bps), then immediately reverse. The current level of the EMA is 3.63%. Since this EMA has been declining steadily over the years, the high points in yield have been declining steadily too. What this suggests is once the 30YR yield rises above a previous high, the recent high was 3.98%, the bear market in yields is over. And a new 34 year bull market in yields in underway.

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Update - to a chart on this historic thread

 

I said then: "Looks like GLD will touch the (unrecogised, but important) 480d MA today"... update
gld.gif

 

UPDATE:

GLD / Gold-- GLD-chart : LT-chart

GLD-480d_zps9poxteyl.gif

 

If GLD closes above $122 (x 10.4= $1,269, it will have made it through several important Resistance levels

 

Here's a longer term version of the chart ;

GLD-480LT_zps586zxpou.gif

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LONG TERM DOW Charts and cycles

 

(Just found the first chart that I made years ago when I was packing)

 

DOW-LT_zpsvoa6uj6b.jpg

 

Low1 : 1788

Start : 1842

Low3 : 1896

Low4 : 1950

Low5 : 2004 : Oct.2002?

 

That Low in the 54 year (about 2004) cycle was timely ... update

 

Dow-1987-all_zps7tmoi2x1.gif

 

The SEVEN YEAR Cycle - note sharp drops when the cycle peak comes "late"

 

Cycle # : HighDate : ---Level-- / --LowDate----- : ---Level--- : Points-Fall : %-Drop // High-No. : Low-No. :

X-Cyc.1 : 08/25/87 : $2,722.42 / 12/04/87-frid . : $1,766.74 : 00,955.68 : - 35.1% :

X-Cyc.2 : 02/01/94 : $3,964.01 / 11/23/94-wed. : $3,674.63 : 00,289.38 : - 7.30% :

X-Cyc.3 : 01/14/00 : 11,722.98 / 10/15/02-wed. : $7,286.27 : 04,436.71 : - 37.8 % :

X-Cyc.4 : 10/09/07 : 14,164.53 / 03/09/09-mon : $6,547.05 : 07,617.48 : - 53.8 % :

X-Cyc.5 : 05/19/15 : 18,312.39 / 09/15/15-ooo. : 13,600.00 : 05,000.00 : - xx.x % :

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It is easy to "forget" what you never experienced...

 

Sep 02 12:46pm:

The wild stock market gyrations may have scared many investors.

More

 

If anything, the young investors are doubling down, opening new accounts and buying stocks.
Robinhood, a stock trading app that is popular with Millennials, saw a 100% increase in new accounts on Monday, when the stock market tanked over 1,000 points at the open.
. . .
Young investors seem unmoved by China's economic slowdown and its domino effect on the global economy, which was behind much of the stock gyrations, says Gijs Nagel, CEO of Degiro.
"It's not something they feel is real to them," says Nagel. "They don't see that connection in their own personal lives."

 

The Dow remembers better than they do... update

Dow-All-Log_zps6p4tbv0g.gif

 

The projected 7-year low in 1994, from this old chart of mine,

proved to be one of the most minor dips (- 7.3%) in the series of seven year cycle lows:

 

DowLT2_zps58ia6k4w.jpg

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Nikkei versus the Dow (in its day) - 60 years apart

 

Dow-vsNikkei_zpsztwagpxz.jpg

 

The Magnitude and shape was very similar - and the Nikkei peak was also of great importance

 

(this is from my book on Cycles, written about 25 years ago)

 

Nikkei-225 ... update

Nik225_zpsszjfwe0g.gif

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A fascinating long term chart - Stocks are still very expensive vs. falling earnimgs

> https://stockcharts.com/articles/decisionpoint/2015/10/sp-500-earnings-trending-downward.html

 

SPXEarns2_zpsiua6fakg.png

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Will surprise inflation wreck the Stock Market? . . . . . . see new CRB thread

 

Oil, Copper, and the CRB have fallen a long way, and maybe have started an important bounce, and even a Bull market

 

"Big Three" Charts (SPY, GLD, DXY) ... 10d-Intraday : 6mos-D : 2yrs-D : 5yrs-D // CUvsGLDvsCRB

CU-etc_zpsrli9zb2d.gif

 

CRB / Commodity Research Bureau index - on its own

crb3_zpsbncsq9jm.png

 

CRB- long term - up to 2012 ... & showing the recent Low near 155

 

crb2b_zpsgoczs5si.png

 

Here's one voice talking "Inflation Ahead"

 

Is Inflation Around the Corner?

picture-3089.jpg

The world is awash in worries about deflation, but here in the US it appears that inflation is making a comeback. If this new trend continues, it may catch a lot of investors off guard. Inflation, or the lack thereof, drives financial markets...

. . .

overall inflation took a nose dive lower, nearly crossing the sharp 0% line (which would mark the transition into deflation). We can see that that the collapse in headline inflation pulled core inflation down with it, but to a much lesser extent.

01.png

 

Now, over the last few months, inflation has begun to rebound (black arrows). Many people find this phenomenon strange when they consider that oil is still trading close to its recent lows, near $35/barrel. “Doesn’t oil need to rise for inflation to pick up?” they ask.

The answer is no; it doesn’t. It just needs to stop going down.

The reason oil took such a toll on overall inflation is because oil itself was experiencing massive deflation. The price of oil, when compared to its price a year earlier, kept on falling and falling. But now, oil has been sharply suppressed for over a year, and this effect is diminishing.

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I Bought SPY PUTS on Friday, in anticipation of what I thought could be...

A KEY REVERSAL... and it was !

Also note the "toppy" long term chart for bonds

 

SPY Stocks / 10d

SPY-10d_zpstund32ot.gif=

 

 

 

A CHART to watch now: TLT / Bonds !

 

TLT / Long-Bond etf ... update : All-data / 10-d : LAST: 138.36-0.81 / O: 139.73, H: 140.69, L: 138.22 / Vol: 11.9mn

1-year

TLT_zpst58tf0aa.gif

All-data

TLT-all_zpsyszp2y80.gif

 

 

A Key Reversal !

 

Here's Why Markets Loved Janet Yellen's Speech at Jackson Hole
Fortune- 6 hours ago
That's the takeaway from the Fed Chair speech Friday morning at the Kansas City Fed's annual gathering in Jackson Hole, Wyo. Yellen had ...
Stocks Fall After Yellen's Remarks
Wall Street Journal- 2 hours ago

 

=

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