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Kowloon's Express Train Station (XRL)

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Kowloon's Express Train Station (XRL) : http://tinyurl.com/GEI-XRL

 

Furious building with a purpose - The Result is striking and innovative

 

Express-Rail-Link-West-Kowloon-Terminus1.jpg

West Kowloon Terminal

 

As it once was:

07ph.jpg

The Terminal is rising in front of those buildings

 

Express-Rail-Link-West-Kowloon-Terminus-Aedas-2-537x402.jpg

 

cruise_terminal_in_west_kowloon_8.jpg

 

XRL_WKT.jpg

 

Express-Rail-Link-West-Kowloon-Terminus-view-4-889x654.jpg

 

xrl2.jpg

 

628px-Guangzhou_Shenzhen_Hongkong_Express_Rail_Link_en.svg.png

 

xrl_map.jpg

 

zoom.png

zoom.png

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wkterminus.jpg

xrlfootprint.jpg

0818-00176-019b3.jpg

002_l.jpg

Express-Rail-Link-West-Kowloon-Terminus-
======
LUXURY FLAT Yields : Kowloon Station and Olympic Station
.
=== : e-CCLI : Sorrent :ParkA/cp : Hermit. - Rents : yield / VictoriaTw - Rents : yield :
2012
Jan. : $94.47 : $13,031 : $$9,663 : $12,480 - 30.E : 2.9%E / $13,850 - 30.E : 2.6%Est
Feb : $95.15 : $13,031 : $$9,638 : $12,907 - 30.E : 2.8%E / $14,179 - 30.E : 2.5%Est
Mar : 100.16 : $13,907 : $10,105 : $13,900 - 31.2 : 2.69% / $13,066 - 31.7 : 2.91% :
Apr : 101.12 : $14,648 : $$9,904 : $14,496 - 30.2 : 2.50% / $13,134 - 28.4 : 2.59% :
May: 104.00 : $15,465 : $10,714 : $13,832 - 29.3 : 2.54% / $15,157 - 27.7 : 2.19% :
Jun : 104.60 : $15,430 : $10,906 : $12,918 - 30.6 : 2.84% / $12,548 - 27.7 : 2.65% :
July : 106.54 : $16,123 : $11,145 : $14,175 - 33.0 : 2.79% / $14,503 - 29.4 : 2.43% :
Aug : 106.89 : $15,995 : $11,201 : $15,294 - 35.1 : 2.75% / $12,727 - 30.4 : 2.87% :
Sep : 110.14 : $15,017 : $10,804 : $12,891 - 35.9 : 3.34% / $13,855 - 28.2 : 2.46% :
Oct. : 114.35 : $15,744 : $10,805 : $15,105 - 34.5 : 2.74% / $14,050 - 28.3 : 2.41% :
Nov : 115.05 : $17,853 : $11,749 : $13,514 - 35.8 : 3.18% / $16,206 - 29.2 : 2.18% :
Dec : 115.78 : $16,316 : $11,161 : $13,500 - 36.8 : 3.27% / $12,109 - 28.4 : 2.81% :
2013
Jan. : 119.13 : $16,685 : $11,039 : $13,500 - 34.6 : 3.08% / $12,788 - 29.8 : 2.79% :
Feb : 121.64 : $16,227 : $12,147 : $13,197 - 33.8 : 3.07% / $17,847 - 31.7 : 2.13% :
Mar : 123.01 : $16,329 : $12,430 : $13,879 - 33.6 : 2.91% / $13,404 - 29.0 : 2.60% :
Apr : 118.84 : $15,024 : $12,150 : $12,885 - 35.0 : 3.26% / $14,500 - 28.7 : 2.38% :
May: 119.06 : $15,031 : $11,649 : $13,650 - 37.4 : 3.29% / $15,778 - 29.0 : 2.21%
Jun : 121.88 : $16,152 : $11,890 : $13,634 - 31.8 : 2.80% / $16,000 - 28.3 : 2.12%

July : 120.95 : $15,186 : $11,850 : $12,233 - 32.0 : 3.14% / $16,048 - 28.3 : 2.11%
Aug : 119.85 : $17,179 : $11,826 : $14,518 - 34.3 : 2.84% / $15,000 - 30.9 : 2.47%
Sep : 120.00 : $17,043 : $11,719 : $14,563 - 35.7 : 2.94% / $14,000 - 30.7 : 2.63%
Oct. : 120.72 : $17,029 : $11,958 : $16,518 - 35.1 : 2.55% / $14,298 - 29.6 : 2.48%
Nov :
=== : e-CCLI : Sorrent :ParkA/cp : Hermit. - Rents : yield / VictoriaTw - Rents : yield :

=====

See also:

/assumes: aver.sizes, H: 1,000sf; VT: 1,000sf :.
/source : CCLI : http://hk.centadata.com/cci/cci_e.htm
/source- Price: Hermitage : http://hk.centadata....t&code2=&page=0
/source- Victoria Towers : http://hk.centadata....t&code2=&page=0
/source- Rents: Luxehomes

 

rent_kowloon_eng.jpg

 

/Sq.Foot Rent index: http://www.squarefoot.com.hk/section/hong-kong-average-rent-price-monthly-index/

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wkterm2.jpg

 

002_l.jpg

 

4597_original.jpg

 

 

 

46c0897090bc466f837a5ab5.jpg

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Tai Kok Tsui side of WK Terminus / Hoi Wang Rd. etc

 

picture-12.png

 

09b.jpg

 

xrlandmtr.jpg

 

 

 

wkterm3.jpg

 

eb4f453abc8c847e6f31742ecbe6_grande.jpg

 

hkfromkln1b.jpg

 

(From the North, before Train station construction began)

 

rosedale-hotel-kowloon.jpg

 

(from Top of Rosedale Hotel)

 

wktkt.gif

 

Bowling%20Map.jpg

 

800px-XRL_WKT_%2818%29.JPG

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Bullet Trains around the world

 

map_comparison_asia.jpg

 

Many are under construction in China (dotted lines)

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Kowloon's Express Train Station

 

xrlstation.jpg

 

A night view of the new West Kowloon Terminus in Hong Kong, south China.

The new West Kowloon Terminus in Hong Kong for the Guangzhou-Shenzhen-Hong Kong Express Rail Link will feature a people-oriented design with environmentally-friendly features, said MTR Corporation on Tuesday.

 

/see: http://www.enbar.net...nt7_95224.shtml

 

Earlier design?

 

express-rail-hong-kong-aedas09.jpg

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Nuclear Power Stations

 

taishan.jpg

 

/source-BiggerMap: http://www.willemsplanet.com/?cat=6

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CROSSING KOWLOON

 

1/

02a.jpg

 

2/

Location_transporation_map.jpg

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The Coronation - near the future HEART of HK ?

 

20770647.jpg

 

DSC_3174.jpg

 

A passer-by walks on a foot bridge in front of The Coronation, newly built luxurious residential flats, near the future terminal of high-speed train linking up to Beijing, at Hong Kong's West Kowloon district February 6, 2013.

 

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Xx1Rx7fAGN4

 

13966550.jpg

=== ===

 

(as posted elsewhere, in response to)

Slideshow- Changing HK:

http://online.wsj.co...ousel_1#slide/1

 

The HEART of the Hong Kong SAR is moving away from Central and away from HK Island.

 

It is probably now on the Star Ferry, and may wind up in Kowloon - probably Kowloon Station or maybe Tai Kok Tsui (TKT.)

The XRL (Express Train to China) and WK Culture District will solidify that shift to Kowloon. Mid-levels may wind up as "an old Grand Dame" - a fading, but still expensive backwater.

 

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9i-Nfkx_76Q

 

Prices------- :: http://www.squarefoo...the-coronation/

Layouts etc :: http://app.midland.c...stId=E000013868

 

At the time it was sold, the ads said this:

 

Cash Kowloon - The Standard

  • Mar 15, 2012 – The West Kowloon Cultural District, all 40 hectares of it, could well be the crown jewel ... The gross floor area of seven out of 10 mixed-use sites was also ...that may be built in West Kowloon is consortium-built The Coronation.

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OTHER Older Projects near The Coronation:

 

+ Prosperous Gardens : built xx

 

+ 8 Waterloo Road : built xx

 

+ Man Cheong Bldgs : built xx

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LUXURY FLAT Yields : Kowloon Station and Olympic Station

.

=== : e-CCLI : Sorrent : ParkA/cp : Hermit. - Rents : yield / Vict.Tw - Rents : yield :

2012

Jan. : $94.47 : $13,031 : $$9,663 : $12,480 - 30.E : 2.9%E / $13,850 - 30.E : 2.6%Est

Sorr. : $13,031 / $94.47 = 137.9

Herm: $12,480 / $94.47 = 132.1

Vic.T: $13,850 / $94.47 = 146.6

 

Apr : 101.12 : $14,648 : $$9,904 : $14,496 - 30.2 : 2.50% / $13,134 - 28.4 : 2.59% :

Sorr. : $14,648 / 101.12 = 144.9 +5.04% //

Herm: $14,496 / 101.12 = 143.4 +8.52% // 30.2 / 101.12 = 0.299 :

Vic.T: $13,134 / 101.12 = 129.9 -11.40% // 28.4 / 101.12 = 0.281 :

===========

2013

Apr : 118.84 : $15,024 : $12,150 : $12,885 - 35.0 : 3.26% / $14,500 - 28.7 : 2.38% :

Sorr. : $15,024 / 118.84 = 126.4 - 8.32% //

Herm: $12,885 / 118.84 = 108.4 -17.92% // 35.0 / 118.84 = 0.295 : - 1.50%

Vic.T: $14,500 / 118.84 = 122.0 -16.77% // 28.7 / 118.84 = 0.242 : -14.06%

===

.

Kowloon / Olympic Station prices are lagging behind the index by 8-18% since Jan. 2012.

But in the last 12 months, Herm. Rentals have basically kept pace with the CCL Index,

but Victoria Towers rents have fallen by - 14%.

.

Perhaps the disruptions caused by construction, have contributed to a relative loss in value on the estates that I am tracking here.

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Liftoff in Kowloon Station ? As the Gap to ML shrinks.

 

Is this a flash in the pan, or market recognition that the XRL is coming (in late 2015) ?

CCLI was up -1.14% in two weeks, Midlevels -2.99% (Thanks to Robinson Place.)

While Kowloon Station was: + 4.49%

(That's impressive when Mainlanders still face a 15% BSD.)

 

The price advantage of Mid-Levels is down to a Gap of $2,462 per sf.

 

Week : CCLI : CMMI : RobinPl: Tregun : Dynast: Clovell / 4-Ave.

====

06/02: 120.14 118.81: 13,429 : 19,879 : 23,251 : 23,822 / 20,095

05/26: 119.06 118.31: 13,430 : 19,881 : 23,253 : 23,824 / 20,097

05/19: 118.79 117.85: 16,070 : 19,830 : 23,193 : 23,763 / 20,714

Chg. : +1.14%: ==== : -16.4%: +0.25%: +0.25%: +0.25% / -2.99%

 

Compare ========= / Kowloon Station

Week : IslHarb : ParkA / Waterf : Sorrent : TArch / 3-Ave- : ML-Gap

====

06/02: 10,251 : 11,947 / 14,531 : 16,262 : 22,107 / 17,633 : $2,462

05/26: 10,026 : 11,649 / 13,760 : 15,031 : 21,826 / 16,872 : $3,225

05/19: 09,971 : 11,585 / 13,751 : 15,021 : 21,851 / 16,874 : $3,840

Chg. :: ===== : ===== / +5.67%: +8.26%: +1.17% / +4.49%

 

=====

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WHAT's HAPPENING ?

(per conversation on AX):

 

TI - :

"Is there any data or anecdotal reports that would confirm that it is mainlanders who are doing the buying"

 

OTP:

Not that I know of - perhaps others can report the evidence, if they see it.

 

To be honest, I am very surprised to see a relative move of this magnitude coming so quickly. Perhaps it is a fluke. But I shall be watching that GAP to Mid-Levels to see if it goes on shrinking.

 

BTW, that Construction site (where the XRL station will appear, and I can see from my window), is beginning to look a bit more coherent, and the stories are beginning to be added from the foundation. So perhaps people can see now that the XRL is going to become a reality within only about two years.

 

TI - :

xx

 

OTP:

To me, it seems to be a Real Life experiment...

 

Testing whether Transport links (like the XRL) will be a major drivers of property valuations. My theory is that flats within easy walking distance of the XRL will appreciate more than flats far away - like in Midlevels or other parts of HK.

 

Of course, there are other new transport links coming in other areas, and some have said those other "everyday" links (new MTR stations) will be even more important than the XRL, which few will use everyday. They may be right.

 

I think it is mainlanders (who are basically kept out of the market by the 15% BSD), and Hong Kong Residents with businesses in China cities on the XRL routes, who will find the XRL station an important consideration.

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(For the record here):

 

"I'm still new to HK so maybe my opinion does not count, but I went to a fair number of popular HKI residences and they were all terrible dumps. Belchers, Merton, Kornhill, etc - you could not pay me to live in the apartments I saw..."

- Lucane, on the Main property thread

 

Sure - that's HK Island.

 

The brain-dead folk who live there refer to Kowloon as the "dark side", and refuse to visit there, creating a barrier which allows those who are more open minded to cross the harbor (paying less than a cab for a quick MTR ride), and live better for less money.

 

And this stupidity is supported by the Expat Estate Agents, who make bigger commissions on those crappy-but-expensive flats than they ought to.

 

Those of us who live in Kowloon, or the NT are laughing

=== ===

 

(2)

 

Putting on my geek hat, here's the actual data:

 

Mid-levels, and Hong Kong Island are weak

 

Week : CCLI : TaikSh. : RobinPl: Clovell // Isl.Harb : ParkA : Waterf : Sorrent : TArch : C'ribC :

==== .

07/07: 119.69: 10,464 : 13,387 : 23,749 / 10,136 : 11,920 : 14,415 : 16,132 : 21,930 : 6,236 :

06/30: 121.88: 12,021 : 13,502 : 23,950 / 10,111 : 11,890 : 14,432 : 16,152 : 21,957 : 6,233 :

Peak

03/17: 123.66: 12,302 : 16,180 : 23,926 / 11,336 : 12,339 : 13,936 : 16,305 : 22,144 : 6,441 :

YrEnd

12/30: 115.78: 11,665 : 14,985 : 22,244 /10,432 : 11,161 : 12,740 : 16,316 : 22,189 : 6,053 :

======

Versus

YrEnd +3.28%: -10.3%: -10.7%: +5.81%/ -2.84%: +6.80%: +13.1%: -1.10%: -1.17%: +3.04%

Peak- - 3.21%: -14.9%: -17.2%: - 0.74%/ -10.6%: -3.34%: +3.44%: -1.06%: -0.97%: - 3.18%

 

Look at those HUGE drops in Taikoo Shing and Robinson Place, down -14.9%, and -17.2% from the peak.

 

Caribbean Coast in Tung Chung, is basically tracking the index, some 3% ahead of year-end, but 3% below the peak.

 

The real outperforming area seems to be Kowloon Central, where the Express Train to China will be completed in about 2 years time. Two properties (Sorrento and The Arch), were hovering around peak prices, while The Waterfront was more than 3% ABOVE the price at 3/17, when the Centaline Index hit its peak. Two properties in the Olympic area were mixed with Park Avenue outperforming the index since year-end by almost 4%, but Island Harborview, which is a longer walk from the XRL, down, but only -2.8% off year-end prices.

 

Lloyd might accuse me of confusing him with the facts.

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XRL Videos, Update on Construction :

===

#1 : Progress on Rail Link : http://www.expressra..._Master_ENG.wmv

#2 : Video on XRL Station : http://www.expressra...l-2-mins-cg.wmv

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PARK SUMMIT in Tai Kok Tsui

 

IMG_6553.JPG

 

ptzf.png

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THE ROUTE of the XRL (Express Train):

 

(In Cantonese):

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ROtaAhnzmgY

 

(all images):

Promotional Video for High speed Rail travel:

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WEST KOWLOON Cultural Centre (WKCC), what's coming

 

ov1e.jpg

 

Dec. 2011 Plan : Enlarged image : ( That park in the lower left is not central enough, to be optimally useful IMHO)

nxg9.jpg

 

/source: http://www.urbanphot...r-west-kowloon/

Review:

"On paper, his plan for West Kowloon is environmentally-sensitive, pedestrian-friendly, small-scale and full of greenery. Given that it is more than a cultural district — it will be home to thousands of residents, 16,000 workers, hundreds of retail outlets, 18 cultural venues and countless visitors — it’s possible to see West Kowloon as Hong Kong’s most ambitious experiment in urban planning since the creation of the New Towns in the 1970s, which laid the groundwork for decades of large-scale modernist tower block development. The cultural district is a significant and positive departure from that model."

. . .

When they get there, they will encounter a network of tree-lined streets that takes its architectural cues from old Hong Kong, most notably the sidewalk arcades that were once found throughout the city. Those covered sidewalks, in addition to street trees and water features, can lower temperatures by up to eight degrees on a hot summer day.

westkowloon2-e1324969470981.jpg

Cars below ground, pedestrians above

westkowloon3-e1324969566789.jpg

“The DNA of the city”

 

“Hong Kong is an incredible metropolis, but what it doesn’t do very well is public open space — places where you can take five minutes to relax,” said Ward. “The whole idea here is to look back at how we used to build in a sub-tropical climate, before air-conditioning.”

 

Those climate-friendly features are part of Foster’s long-term goal of making West Kowloon a carbon-neutral district. Other strategies will include the conversion of food waste into biogas fuel and the use of wind and solar energy to power the district’s buildings. If West Kowloon’s power and cooling systems are implemented as soon as possible, the district could be carbon-neutral as early as 2025.

 

The most controversial part of Foster’s plan is the 19-hectare park, planted with native species, that will take up nearly half of the cultural district’s site.

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REACTION to articles : Launch of Cullinan and The Austin -

 

"the Press has been snookered"

==================================================

 

(1)

Example from today's SCMP:
"SHKP announced the relaunch of its luxury housing project Cullinan in West Kowloon at nearly 20 percent lower than prevailing transaction prices in the secondary market in the area."

I think this is untrue. I have visited the showflats and made my own assessment, and it comes out different that that.

I think that the SCMP quoted an agent who said that prices were 19% lower than secondhand, and that may be where the "almost 20%" comes from.

Here are my own calculations based on my assessment of the property:

Category======= : Discount/Premium
List Prices ............. : +5.0 %
Buy w/in 150 days.. : - 9.0 %
Other discounts...... : - 5.0 %
===================
Basic Price discount : - 9.0 %

Tax Rebates
DSD: 7.5% x 70%.. : - 5.3 %
BSD: 15 % x 70%.. : -10.5 %
Discounts non-Perm : -15.8 %
===================
Overall Discount..... : -24.8 % : Mainlanders
Overall Discount..... : -14.3 % : Local, 2nd property
Overall Discount..... : -11.7 % : Local, 1st property

Only Mainland buyers were seeing Cullinan as 20-25% cheaper than secondhand. Buyers with Permanent residency in HK are seeing prices which look 12-14% cheaper than secondhand (by my calculations.) And this only applies as long as the full discounts provided in the initial launch of 30 flats.

Already, SHKP has limited sales on the second batch of 30 flats, to only HK residents, removing for SHKP, the need to pay that big rebate on the BSD. Going forward, the developer may cut some of the other discounts shown above for the next few batches.

SHKP has done something clever. By releasing new properties (in a prime location) with big discounts, they have generated big demand. For a 30 flat launch, they collected 500 cheques. HK people are like lemmings, when they see something is popular, they jump in and buy. So now a feeding frenzy has started. Many people are out seeking those "20% below market bargains." But by the time they buy, they may find the discounts have been whittled back, and the actual discounts they get are 10% or less.

HK Developers are very good at these sorts of "tricks," and they have shown us once again how creative they can be.

 

(2)

5,000 jostle for cut-price luxury flats at The Cullinan in West Kowloon

About 5,000 people queued, pushed and jostled as 60 luxury flats went on sale at The Cullinan development in West Kowloon. The throng - comprising both would-be buyers and agents hoping to strike a deal - started queuing in the morning and occupied several floors of the sales venue at the International Commerce Centre, including the ground floor and car park.
=== ===

Later in the article, it talks about how SHKP is raising prices by 5-10%

 

(3)

VOILA !
The trick worked !
From above:
Latest report: Unit Price (Centadata)
Gross Area : HK$22,472 : -17.0%
Saleable--- : HK$29,907

List prices now??
Latest launch: is $32,000 - almost 10% higher.
So even with the discounts, it is not far different from secondhand

 

(4)

THE AUSTIN LAUNCHES... with "play it safe" price

Headline price: HK$22,671 psf, NET
"That is 21 percent below the average price of the first batch of 181 flats at a nearby project the Cullinan."

(Calculation: $22,671 / .79 = $29,000 )

"The luxury residential market improved recently after the Cullinan launched for sale," said Benny Yu of HK Properties in Kowloon.
"Agents had previously forecast a price for the Austin of about HK$26,000 psf"

Note: $22,671, Net x 75% = Approx. $17,000, Gross)

"The lower asking price is their marketing strategy. They want to create some noise in the market...

Their profit margin would be less than 20 per cent. They have to raise prices."
(Alfred Lau, at Bocom Int'l)

 

(5)

At The Austin...
The price rises have begun already.
As announced in the SCMP today:

They will "raise the asking price by 5.6 per cent"
The second batch will be at an average of $24,149 versus previous $22,871.

Sizes range from: 418 sf to 1,002 sf.

The first batch was described as:
"very competitive... 21 per cent below the first batch at nearby Cullinan"

Nearby developments such as The Victoria Towers, The Coronation,
and The Cullinan ranged from HK $20,000 to $31,000 psf"

"Analysts expect strong sales at The Austin"
===========

Let's compare the prices in this SCMP, to the historical record.
At: http://www.greenenergyinvestors.com/index.php?showtopic=17597

=== : e-CCLI : Sorrent : Hermit. - Rents : yield / VictoriaTw - Rents : yield :
2013
Jan. : 119.13 : $16,685 : $13,500 - 34.6 : 3.08% / $12,788 - 29.8 : 2.79% :
Feb : 121.64 : $16,227 : $13,197 - 33.8 : 3.07% / $17,847 - 31.7 : 2.13% :
Mar : 123.01 : $16,329 : $13,879 - 33.6 : 2.91% / $13,404 - 29.0 : 2.60% :
Apr : 118.84 : $15,024 : $12,885 - 35.0 : 3.26% / $14,500 - 28.7 : 2.38% :
May: 119.06 : $15,031 : $13,650 - 37.4 : 3.29% / $15,778 - 29.0 : 2.21%
Jun : 121.88 : $16,152 : $13,634 - 31.8 : 2.80% / $16,000 - 28.3 : 2.12%
July : 120.95 : $15,186 : $12,233 - 32.0 : 3.14% / $16,048 - 28.3 : 2.11%
Aug : 119.85 : $17,179 : $14,518 - 34.3 : 2.84% / $15,000 - 30.9 : 2.47%
Sep : 120.00 : $17,043 : $14,563 - 35.7 : 2.94% / $14,000 - 30.7 : 2.63%
Oct. :
=== : e-CCLI : Sorrent : Hermit. - === : ==== / VictoriaTw === : ====
/75%: psfNet : $22,724 : $19,417=== : ==== / $18,667
/75%: psfNet : $22,724 : $19,417=== : ==== / $21,333*
===
No transactions at those low prices for Victoria Tower, so
on the second line, I have used $16,000, Gross.

Conclusion: "The Press has been snookered"
=======
The SCMP article "INFLATES" prices in the secondary market,
and the "discounts to secondhand" are nowehere are large as reported.
So people will do their own research, and realise this is the case.

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REACTION to articles : Launch of Cullinan and The Austin -

 

"the Press has been snookered"

==================================================

(4)

THE AUSTIN LAUNCHES... with "play it safe" price

Headline price: HK$22,671 psf, NET
"That is 21 percent below the average price of the first batch of 181 flats at a nearby project the Cullinan."

(Calculation: $22,671 / .79 = $29,000 )

"The luxury residential market improved recently after the Cullinan launched for sale," said Benny Yu of HK Properties in Kowloon.
"Agents had previously forecast a price for the Austin of about HK$26,000 psf"

Note: $22,671, Net x 75% = Approx. $17,000, Gross)

"The lower asking price is their marketing strategy. They want to create some noise in the market...

Their profit margin would be less than 20 per cent. They have to raise prices."
(Alfred Lau, at Bocom Int'l)

 

(5)

At The Austin...
The price rises have begun already.
As announced in the SCMP today:

They will "raise the asking price by 5.6 per cent"
The second batch will be at an average of $24,149 versus previous $22,871.

Sizes range from: 418 sf to 1,002 sf.

The first batch was described as:
"very competitive... 21 per cent below the first batch at nearby Cullinan"

Nearby developments such as The Victoria Towers, The Coronation,
and The Cullinan ranged from HK $20,000 to $31,000 psf"

"Analysts expect strong sales at The Austin"
===========

Let's compare the prices in this SCMP, to the historical record.
At: http://www.greenenergyinvestors.com/index.php?showtopic=17597

=== : e-CCLI : Sorrent : Hermit. - Rents : yield / VictoriaTw - Rents : yield :
2013
Jan. : 119.13 : $16,685 : $13,500 - 34.6 : 3.08% / $12,788 - 29.8 : 2.79% :
Feb : 121.64 : $16,227 : $13,197 - 33.8 : 3.07% / $17,847 - 31.7 : 2.13% :
Mar : 123.01 : $16,329 : $13,879 - 33.6 : 2.91% / $13,404 - 29.0 : 2.60% :
Apr : 118.84 : $15,024 : $12,885 - 35.0 : 3.26% / $14,500 - 28.7 : 2.38% :
May: 119.06 : $15,031 : $13,650 - 37.4 : 3.29% / $15,778 - 29.0 : 2.21%
Jun : 121.88 : $16,152 : $13,634 - 31.8 : 2.80% / $16,000 - 28.3 : 2.12%
July : 120.95 : $15,186 : $12,233 - 32.0 : 3.14% / $16,048 - 28.3 : 2.11%
Aug : 119.85 : $17,179 : $14,518 - 34.3 : 2.84% / $15,000 - 30.9 : 2.47%
Sep : 120.00 : $17,043 : $14,563 - 35.7 : 2.94% / $14,000 - 30.7 : 2.63%
Oct. :
=== : e-CCLI : Sorrent : Hermit. - === : ==== / VictoriaTw === : ====
/75%: psfNet : $22,724 : $19,417 : === : ==== / $18,667 NET
/75%: psfNet : $22,724 : $19,417 : === : ==== / $21,333*NET
===
No transactions at those low prices for Victoria Tower, so
on the second line, I have used $16,000, Gross.

Conclusion: "The Press has been snookered"
=======
The SCMP article "INFLATES" prices in the secondary market,
and the "discounts to secondhand" are nowhere near as large as reported.

So people will do their own research, and realise this is the case.

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NEW PROPERTIES at The Cullinan and The Austin are being well-absorbed

 

(from Asia Expat, by OffThePeak):

 

Peggy Sito's article on page 1 of the SCMP is better, with more detail:
"At the Austin... the headline price was HK$22,875 psf (Net), but analysts said effective prices averaged below $19,000 after discounts and rebates..."
. . .
"The developers had sold 372 flats at The Austin by yesterday, when the headline price for the latest batch of 107 was raised to an average HK$25,326 per sf."
(At those levels, the discounts bring prices back to near the original headline prices.)
At the beginning of the article, she says:
"Analysts... agree on one thing: developers' profit margins are being squeezed."
And at the end of the article, she says:
"Developers profit margins had fallen to 30 percent from 35 percent at the beginning of the year... Barclays said some major developers profit margin for their Hong Kong projects was below 20 per cent based on current prices."
== ==
But as prices get pushed back up for later stages of popular projects - the market dip is seen temporary. And secondhand sellers may find they do not need to adjust their prices downwards at all.
And the elimination of "overhang" of new projects coming on stream might conceivably allow some prices rises later on. This could be especially possible in areas like Kowloon Station, where the completion of the XRL might add something to demand in the months to come.
Of course, if the overall market is falling, then Kowloon Station may fall too, but perhaps much less, or it may even allow the area to hold stability whilst, the rest of HK falls. (However, I cannot rule out the possibility that there could a downwards shock, as there was in 2008/9, because so many vacant properties are held by mainlanders. But I do not expect that now.)
===

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OTHER COMMENTS from AX

 

1 /

by OffThePeak (45 mins ago)

==

As usual, the reporting is superficial and idiotic - The reporters probably listen to Estate Agents, who are programmed to think that way:
===
"Many home buyers, like Lee, have shrugged off recent forecasts of a drop of up to 50 percent in prices over the next 12 months and decided to take a chance.

"They (buyers) are concerned that the banks will further tighten up credit," said Jennifer Wong, tax partner at global accounting firm KPMG in Hong Kong. "This is one of the reasons they don't mind to pay a little bit more - they can secure the mortgage loan at a low interest."
== ==

Didn't they find any intelligent buyers to talk to?

The location of THE AUSTIN, the property they are writing about is superb.

Do any of these reporters mention the fact that the new XRL train station will be opening in less than two years, and having a new property in easy walk to the station may actually be a good move. Professional property investors that I know, say that property prices will often firm up near new train stations in the least two years before launch.

The fat discounts (on early batches) offered by the developers are an added inducement, and a nice "cushion" against a possible fall in prices.

Does anyone seriously believe there will be a 50% drop in 12 months? If so, can you put me in touch with such person, so I can arrange a bet.

2 /

by traineeinvestor (28 mins ago)

==

In a sense it is bad reporting - they seemed to have latched on to the Deutshe Bank 50% decline and Barclays 30% without saying anything meaningful about the basis on which those forecasts have been made (or the banks' track record) and I really struggle to believe that the have quoted a KPMG partner in context. But they have gone to a number of sources - including the highly respected Nicole Wong from CLSA.

The real issue is that it's a short article trying to cram in as many view points as possible but at the cost of not doing any real analysis.

While a 50% fall in 12 months (starting from October) is possible, I would also be willing to bet a meaningful amoungt of money that it wont happen.

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Hermitage prices have zoomed past Victory Towers

 

(Too much disruption from building works perhaps?)

 

LUXURY FLAT Yields : Kowloon Station and Olympic Station
.
=== : e-CCLI : Sorrent :ParkA/cp : Hermit. - Rents : yield / VictoriaTw - Rents : yield :
2012
Jan. : $94.47 : $13,031 : $$9,663 : $12,480 - 30.E : 2.9%E / $13,850 - 30.E : 2.6%Est
Feb : $95.15 : $13,031 : $$9,638 : $12,907 - 30.E : 2.8%E / $14,179 - 30.E : 2.5%Est
Mar : 100.16 : $13,907 : $10,105 : $13,900 - 31.2 : 2.69% / $13,066 - 31.7 : 2.91% :
Apr : 101.12 : $14,648 : $$9,904 : $14,496 - 30.2 : 2.50% / $13,134 - 28.4 : 2.59% :
May: 104.00 : $15,465 : $10,714 : $13,832 - 29.3 : 2.54% / $15,157 - 27.7 : 2.19% :
Jun : 104.60 : $15,430 : $10,906 : $12,918 - 30.6 : 2.84% / $12,548 - 27.7 : 2.65% :
July : 106.54 : $16,123 : $11,145 : $14,175 - 33.0 : 2.79% / $14,503 - 29.4 : 2.43% :
Aug : 106.89 : $15,995 : $11,201 : $15,294 - 35.1 : 2.75% / $12,727 - 30.4 : 2.87% :
Sep : 110.14 : $15,017 : $10,804 : $12,891 - 35.9 : 3.34% / $13,855 - 28.2 : 2.46% :
Oct. : 114.35 : $15,744 : $10,805 : $15,105 - 34.5 : 2.74% / $14,050 - 28.3 : 2.41% :
Nov : 115.05 : $17,853 : $11,749 : $13,514 - 35.8 : 3.18% / $16,206 - 29.2 : 2.18% :
Dec : 115.78 : $16,316 : $11,161 : $13,500 - 36.8 : 3.27% / $12,109 - 28.4 : 2.81% :
2013
Jan. : 119.13 : $16,685 : $11,039 : $13,500 - 34.6 : 3.08% / $12,788 - 29.8 : 2.79% :
Feb : 121.64 : $16,227 : $12,147 : $13,197 - 33.8 : 3.07% / $17,847 - 31.7 : 2.13% :
Mar : 123.01 : $16,329 : $12,430 : $13,879 - 33.6 : 2.91% / $13,404 - 29.0 : 2.60% :
Apr : 118.84 : $15,024 : $12,150 : $12,885 - 35.0 : 3.26% / $14,500 - 28.7 : 2.38% :
May: 119.06 : $15,031 : $11,649 : $13,650 - 37.4 : 3.29% / $15,778 - 29.0 : 2.21%
Jun : 121.88 : $16,152 : $11,890 : $13,634 - 31.8 : 2.80% / $16,000 - 28.3 : 2.12%

July : 120.95 : $15,186 : $11,850 : $12,233 - 32.0 : 3.14% / $16,048 - 28.3 : 2.11%
Aug : 119.85 : $17,179 : $11,826 : $14,518 - 34.3 : 2.84% / $15,000 - 30.9 : 2.47%
Sep : 120.00 : $17,043 : $11,719 : $14,563 - 35.7 : 2.94% / $14,000 - 30.7 : 2.63%
Oct. : 120.72 : $17,029 : $11,958 : $16,518 - 35.1 : 2.55% / $14,298 - 29.6 : 2.48%
Nov :
=== : e-CCLI : Sorrent :ParkA/cp : Hermit. - Rents : yield / VictoriaTw - Rents : yield :

=====

See also:

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CENTALINE price data


Week : CCLI : // IslHarb : ParkAv : Waterf : Sorrent : TArch : C'ribC : TaikShing

==== . .

12/15: 118.61 /10,441: 11,933 : 13,813 : 17,704 : 21,642 : 5,807 : 10,627

. . .

06/30: 121.88 /10,111 : 11,890 : 14,432 : 16,152 : 21,957 : 6,233 : 12,021

. . .

03/17: 123.66 /11,336 : 12,339 : 13,936 : 16,305 : 22,144 : 6,441 : 12,302

. . .

12/30: 115.78 /10,432 : 11,161 : 12,740 : 16,316 : 22,189 : 6,053 : 11,665

====

Chg.s

1 year: +2.44% /+0.09% :+6.92% :+8.42%:+8.51%: -2.47% :-4.06% :-8.89%

VPeak: -4.08%/- 7.90% : -3.29% : - 0.89%:+8.58%: -2.27% :-9.84% :-13.6%

====

See how Kowloon Station is outperforming the averages

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