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The Population Bust - what will the impact be?

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The Population Bust - what will the impact be?

 

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A new book, What to Expect When No One’s Expecting: America’s Coming Demographic Disaster (Encounter Books), adds to a growing list of books on the population implosion and says demographic winter is coming to America, too.

“In reality, from Africa to Asia, from South America to Eastern Europe, and from Third World jungles to the wealthy desert petro-kingdoms, nearly every country in every region is experiencing declines in fertility,” writes the new book’s author, Weekly Standard editor Jonathan Last. Every First World country has birth rates below the threshold replacement level of 2.1 children per woman (the 0.1 is to account for deaths from disease, war and famine), he observes, but even developing countries like Brazil and Iran are seeing decline.

 

The Long Decline

America’s birth rate has been declining gradually for decades, and it began to sink like a stone in 1968 — just about exactly when Ehrlich started writing his overpopulation apocalypse. (Were people paying attention?)

 

Another impact: since 1973 when the Supreme Court legalized abortion, The United States of America has lost more than 54 million citizens to abortion directly, as well as the generations that would have followed them had they not been killed prior to birth.

 

But while countries like Italy, Japan, Russia and Germany have experienced huge losses in fertility, America has been relatively insulated from the global demographic plunge, maintaining a total fertility rate of 1.93 — not bad for a First World powerhouse.

“But the closer you look, the less reassuring our number is,” writes Last. “Our national average is only boosted because Hispanic women are doing most of the heavy lifting, having an average of 2.35 babies. Take out Hispanics, and America’s fertility picture begins to look quite different.”

 

 

Read more: http://www.ncregiste.../#ixzz2LxbRmKBU

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Somehow, I cannot get the Georgia Guidestones out of my mind

 

It keeps coming back, when I see articles like this:

 

POPULATION Statements

 

Paul Ehrlich, this time on the size of families: “Nobody, in my view, has the right to have 12 children or even three unless the second pregnancy is twins”

 

CNN Founder Ted Turner: “A total world population of 250-300 million people, a 95% decline from present levels, would be ideal.”

 

Japan’s Deputy Prime Minister Taro Aso about medical patients with serious illnesses: “You cannot sleep well when you think it’s all paid by the government. This won’t be solved unless you let them hurry up and die.”

 

David Rockefeller: “The negative impact of population growth on all of our planetary ecosystems is becoming appallingly evident.”

 

U.S. Supreme Court Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg: “Frankly I had thought that at the time Roe was decided, there was concern about population growth and particularly growth in populations that we don’t want to have too many of.”

===

/more: http://www.expansion...rol-statements/

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On a related note, I think many here would enjoy John Urry's "Societies Beyind Oil". Makes a link between cheap energy and how the resulting normalisation of a high-carbon mobile western lifestyle helped drive urban sprawl and inflate the mortgage bubble, then goes on to suggests it was peak oil (well, peak everything ultimately) that popped it. Outlines several "energy descent" scenarios, but not got to those yet. Interesting read if you enjoy listening to JH Kunstler, KMO and the like.

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"I cannot get the Georgia Guidestones out of my mind"

Please explain

gaguidestones2.jpg

 

Ten guidelines or principles is engraved on the Georgia Guidestones in eight different languages:

=====================

  1. Maintain humanity under 500,000,000 in perpetual balance with nature.
  2. Guide reproduction wisely — improving fitness and diversity.
  3. Unite humanity with a living new language
  4. Rule passion — faith — tradition — and all things with tempered reason.
  5. Protect people and nations with fair laws and just courts.
     
  6. Let all nations rule internally resolving external disputes in a world court.
  7. Avoid petty laws and useless officials.
  8. Balance personal rights with social duties.
  9. Prize truth — beauty — love — seeking harmony with the infinite.
  10. Be not a cancer on the earth — Leave room for nature — Leave room for nature.
     
    ff_guidestones3_f.jpg
     
    History
    In June 1979, an unknown person or persons under the pseudonym R. C. Christian hired Elberton Granite Finishing Company to build the structure

Location

The Georgia Guidestones are located on a hilltop in Elbert County*, Georgia, approximately 90 miles (140 km) east of Atlanta, 45 miles (72 km) from Athens, and 9 miles (14 km) north of the center of Elberton. The stones are standing on a rise a short distance to the east of Georgia Highway 77 (Hartwell Highway), and are visible from that road. Small signs beside the highway indicate the turnoff for the Guidestones, which is identified by a street sign as "Guidestones Rd." It is located on the highest point in Elbert County

===

 

/wiki: http://en.wikipedia....gia_Guidestones

 

*Elberton, GA : 213m : 699 feet - above sea-level

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Ten guidelines or principles is engraved on the Georgia Guidestones...

=====================

  1. Maintain humanity under 500,000,000 in perpetual balance with nature.

Some think this explains (justifies?) various conspiracies to reduce the population on the planet, from the current level of 7 Billion (or so)

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Ten guidelines or principles is engraved on the Georgia Guidestones...

=====================

  1. Maintain humanity under 500,000,000 in perpetual balance with nature.

Some think this explains (justifies?) various conspiracies to reduce the population on the planet, from the current level of 7 Billion (or so)

When was the world human population last at 500,000,000 people? Surprisingly only only 600+ years ago, around 1500.

 

Pop of Brisish Isles was 5 million.

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Before you can "Maintain" the population at 500 million.

You have to get it there first.

Has some one, or some group, got an agenda to reduce human population to that level ?

Or do they merely expect it will get there without their help?

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(An interesting comment from "NorthStarDelight" from Tucker GA about "The Stones" from : here ):

 

An interesting place indeed.

 

According to a book I read by a former Scientologist who wrote about his experience in that organization, the Guidestones were built by L. Ron Hubbard, who didn't want anyone to know that he was the one that had them built, with the exception of two individuals in Elberton. Supposedly, he wanted to leave something for future humans to find long after this current civilization has ended, to give them a set of guidelines of how to set up a future society. The Guidestones have nothing to do whatsoever with Scientology - it was just a pet project Hubbard wanted to carry out in order to leave a lasting legacy for the distant future.

 

However, the local community (for the most part) despises these stones, as the general impression is that they were built by Satanists or whatever, and in recent years, they have been subject to vandalism and attempts to collapse the structure by chipping away at some of the stones. If this continues, they may not last 50 years, let alone the 50,000 as they were intended.

 

So if you happen to be in the area, do stop by for a visit - this is a true American "oddity" and well worth seeing. The town of Elberton is worth a visit as well, as they have a museum detailing the history of granite quarrying in the area and the production of granite-based objects, such as grave markers and monuments. This is why Hubbard chose to put the stones in this location, due to the proximity of the granite quarries, as well as being able to hire a firm that was capable of doing the work - I'm sure they were happy to do the work for him for the green...lol.

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Sounds a good read. Will you post the energy descent scenarios here before I buy a copy?

Thanks!

 

Outlines four possible outcomes for a "post-oil" (or post cheap oil) planet circa 2050 :-

 

1) Magic bullet scenario. New technology discovered (nuclear fusion, graphene supercapacitors etc) that serves as a drop in replacement for oil and enables continuation of high mobility, high-energy but lower carbon society. Increased growth with reduced impact.

 

2) Digital future. Mobility role of oil largely replaced through digital technology (Skype, Cloud, Netflix etc). Production moves to local cells and 3D printing/rapid prototyping. Digital capital usurps carbon capital (e.g. IP for blueprints, 3D printing under licence etc)

 

3) Oil dregs future. Major powers seek to continue current standard of living despite rising costs. Escalation of resource wars, especially for water. Localisation through circumstance rather than choice

 

4) Planned and consensual transition to low carbon society. Intelligent demand management and localisation through choice (e.g. Transition Town type initiatives). High tech collaborative consumption model (Streetbank, timebanks etc) replaces individualistic consumer culture.

 

Like I said, not got to that section yet, but it's already an interesting read. Dovetails nicely with Jim Kunstler's output and my own interests in open source software, Freecycle networks* and the promotion of quality of life over standard of living.

 

* By way of an example, as and when we get a house together, partner and I have decided we want to furnish it as much as possible with willingly donated (Freecycle etc), repurposed and even downright scavenged furniture. If none of those options work, charity purchase comes next. Buying new is intended to be a last resort. Likewise home improvements should be through friend networks and timebanks if possible.

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John Urry?

Here's a Video with him:

 

Urban Age Electric City: John Urry - Sociotechnical scenarios for the future

 

whoops!

 

Ph.,

I think we should pick up this Urry discussion up on the "Americans still do not get it' Thread

http://www.greenener...pic=17507&st=20

 

...and leave this thread for a Population Bust discussion.

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Outlines four possible outcomes for a "post-oil" (or post cheap oil) planet circa 2050 :-

 

1) Magic bullet scenario. New technology discovered (nuclear fusion, graphene supercapacitors etc) that serves as a drop in replacement for oil and enables continuation of high mobility, high-energy but lower carbon society. Increased growth with reduced impact.

 

2) Digital future. Mobility role of oil largely replaced through digital technology (Skype, Cloud, Netflix etc). Production moves to local cells and 3D printing/rapid prototyping. Digital capital usurps carbon capital (e.g. IP for blueprints, 3D printing under licence etc)

 

3) Oil dregs future. Major powers seek to continue current standard of living despite rising costs. Escalation of resource wars, especially for water. Localisation through circumstance rather than choice

 

4) Planned and consensual transition to low carbon society. Intelligent demand management and localisation through choice (e.g. Transition Town type initiatives). High tech collaborative consumption model (Streetbank, timebanks etc) replaces individualistic consumer culture.

 

Like I said, not got to that section yet, but it's already an interesting read. Dovetails nicely with Jim Kunstler's output and my own interests in open source software, Freecycle networks* and the promotion of quality of life over standard of living.

 

* By way of an example, as and when we get a house together, partner and I have decided we want to furnish it as much as possible with willingly donated (Freecycle etc), repurposed and even downright scavenged furniture. If none of those options work, charity purchase comes next. Buying new is intended to be a last resort. Likewise home improvements should be through friend networks and timebanks if possible.

Thanks for that! Sounds like we have a mix of all scenarios at the moment...as we stagger along.

 

Sounds like you have the right idea for your house, very exciting, so good luck! I know some people who do just that and do very nicely. They also make a lot of stuff and are virtually energy independant...at least good enough.

As to No 1, interestingly an article here about Japan's interest in Methane Hydrate from the paper today.

 

http://www.japantime...8/#.US97hlcwFSM

 

Methane hydrate, an icelike substance consisting of methane gas trapped in ice below the seabed, is believed to exist around Japan, with deposits estimated to be sufficient to cover domestic consumption of natural gas for about 100 years.''

 

 

Of course nothing about the eroei of that.

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America’s birth rate has been declining gradually for decades, and it began to sink like a stone in 1968 — just about exactly when Ehrlich started writing his overpopulation apocalypse. (Were people paying attention?)

 

Another impact: since 1973 when the Supreme Court legalized abortion, The United States of America has lost more than 54 million citizens to abortion directly, as well as the generations that would have followed them had they not been killed prior to birth.

Availability of the contaceptive pill and safe abortions in the mid 60s allowed people to choose whether or not to have kids, independant of whether or not to have sex. They chose, by and large, to have lots of sex and few children. Makes sense to me; I have two children, I would not choose to have eight.

 

There may be an argument that pensions industry/welfarism has removed the pressure of having children to look after you once you're old. I rather doubt people rationalise having kids like that, but it may be another contributing factor.

 

While those guidestones are a bit creepy, I don't think you have to look for a conspiracy.

 

It's probably what it seems - people presented with the free choice of having kids or not, are making a very understandable choice of having only a few.

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...

America’s birth rate has been declining gradually for decades, and it began to sink like a stone in 1968 — just about exactly when Ehrlich started writing his overpopulation apocalypse. (Were people paying attention?)

 

Another impact: since 1973 when the Supreme Court legalized abortion, The United States of America has lost more than 54 million citizens to abortion directly, as well as the generations that would have followed them had they not been killed prior to birth.

...

 

this doesn't chime with the fertility rates for US on google data.

 

rate drops 'like a stone' from 3.65 in 1960 to 2.45 in 1968.

 

in 1968, the rate actually increases slightly.

 

by 1972, the rate is already down to 2.01, lower than in 2010, so it's not evident that legalisation of abortion in '73 had much influence.

 

https://www.google.co.uk/publicdata/explore?ds=d5bncppjof8f9_&ctype=l&strail=false&bcs=d&nselm=h&met_y=sp_dyn_tfrt_in&scale_y=lin&ind_y=false&rdim=region&idim=country:USA&ifdim=region&hl=en&dl=en&ind=false&q=fertility+rate+america

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