Jump to content
Sign in to follow this  
drbubb

BULLISH GOLD? - But only If "the 480 MA holds", that is...

Recommended Posts

BULLISH GOLD - If you bet on "the Great 480" - MA, that is...

 

Looks like GLD will touch the (unrecogised, but important) 480d MA today... update

 

gld.gif

 

Is today the day to buy ?

 

=== ===

 

The mainstreamers seem to be distracted by the 200d-MA, and may not be watching "the big game" here:

 

 

Gold Update: Gold Extends Early Losses, Drops Below Key 200-Day Moving Average

 

Friday January 25, 2013 10:00 AM

 

(Kitco News) - Comex gold futures have fallen to a new daily low and hit a fresh two-week low in late-morning dealings Friday. Fresh technical selling has been featured and sell stops have been hit as February gold dropped below its technically important 200-day moving average, which is presently located at the $1,668.00 area. The gold market is also poised to close at a technically bearish weekly low close on Friday. There has been no fresh, bearish fundamental development to push gold prices down, with technically related selling being the dominant feature Friday. The gold market bulls have faded on a near-term technical basis the past two trading sessions. February gold last traded down $13.80 an ounce at $1655.80.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

A bearish indication for Gold, is the weakness in GDX

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

A couple of points:

 

480dma = 100 week moving average.

 

Did GDX really fall through support? Looks like it's due for a bounce to me.

 

 

gdx250113.png

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

A couple of points:

 

480dma = 100 week moving average.

 

Did GDX really fall through support? Looks like it's due for a bounce to me.

 

 

gdx250113.png

 

Wow, that does not look good at all. I wonder how Peppa Pig is feeling with that loan he took out to buy gold stocks...............oh dear.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
62162043.gif

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Cough, cough. I don't consider myself a 'mainstreamer' and have been calling for a further correction. :rolleyes:

Your 'lonOg' term bias on gold strengthening, which I share, seems to have colored your short term trading views.

??

 

I am merely observed the clear & consistent pattern of bouncing off the 480d MA.

Buying on/near the MA has been a successful plan for some time.

(I cannot guarantee it will continue indefinitely.)

 

People are becoming too bearish on Gold and that may be enough to inspire a rally.

Those who are selling because "gold fell below the 200d MA", may be missing the bigger picture IMHO

 

Here's the 480d & 144d MA's redone as 100wk MA & 29wk MA ... As 480d-MA :

 

gld2005.gif

 

As 100wk-MA:

 

gld2005.gif

 

GDX-vs 100wk-MA

 

31057048.gif

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Using the same 100wk & 29wk MA's - here a chart I really like:

 

HUI / Gold Bug's index : from 1996 : from 2000 : from 2009

 

42089425.gif

 

The HUI-400 level looks very important.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

GOLD SENTIMENT

 

Gold Survey: Opinions Are Divided On Gold's Price Direction For Next Week

 

Friday January 25, 2013 12:02 PM

Opinions are split over the direction for gold prices for next week in the Kitco News Gold Survey, with a few more survey participants expecting weaker prices, but no one category garnering the majority opinion.

In the Kitco News Gold Survey, out of 33 participants, 25 responded this week. Of those 25 participants, eight see prices up, while 12 see prices down, and five see prices moving sideways. Market participants include bullion dealers, investment banks, futures traders, money managers and technical-chart analysts.

 

Nearly all who said they expected weaker prices for next week cited gold’s failure to break through tough resistance at the $1,700 an ounce area.

 

“I was cautiously calling the market a tad higher last week, looking for a pop to test resistance at $1,710 (but) didn’t get it. So I am now looking for a retest of weekly support at $1,630,” said Ralph Preston, principal at Heritage West Financial.

 

Those who see higher prices said the underlying fundamentals that have supported gold lately, namely ultra-loose monetary policy and continued uncertainty over the global economy, have not changed, which underpins gold.

Most of those who choose sideways said more than anything else, the market is stuck in a range, with $1,700 representing the ceiling and the mid to low-$1,600s the floor. With no visible catalysts, gold is likely to stay that way.

===

/more: http://www.kitco.com...jan25.2013.html

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

The channels often work on that time frame.

And log or linear, the MA's are the same

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Interviews...

 

Week ending thoughts on gold and silver from Al and Trader Rog - by Al Korelin - audio , Jan 25 2013 3:04PM

 

"A New Phase For Gold?" Kitco's Nadler on Bloomberg's The Hays Advantage - by Jon Nadler - audio , Jan 25 2013 8:06AM

 

James Turk’s Smartstox Interview: The Outlook for Gold in 2013 - by Stanlie Hunt - audio , Jan 24 2013 10:29AM

 

No time to listen yet

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Wow, that does not look good at all. I wonder how Peppa Pig is feeling with that loan he took out to buy gold stocks...............oh dear.

 

Yup, gold stocks are not gold.... neither is silver for that matter. I take it the market has falsified the fanciful idea that stocks and silver would leverage the price of gold....... B)

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

GLD-to-SPY RATIO : Lowest level in almost two years

 

50823954.png

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

SO FAR - today's trading does look constructive,

 

...reinforcing the possibility that a LOW is being put in by Gold

(and GLD is staying above the 480d MA, which is between GLD-$159.50 and $160

 

GOLD TRADING ... I am Encouraged today

 

Another drop in early trading...

 

But after two big DROPS on Thursday and Friday, this one is much smaller - and on Lighter volume

 

GLD intraday ... update

gld5d.gif

 

That is what you want to see at a bottom / but it does not guarantee a bottom.

 

 

GLD: 160.42 -0.23

Open:160.24 / High:160.73 / Low:160.18

Volume: 2,863,856

Percent Change: -0.14%

 

PRECIOUS-Gold holds near 2-week low ahead of U.S. Fed meeting

Reuters India - 4 Hours ago

* Gold market cautious ahead of U.S. Federal Reserve meeting * Spot palladium hits highest since Sept 2011 at $741.75/oz * Coming up: U.S. durable goods orders; 1330 GMT (Updates throughout; changes dateline Finanace - PRECIOUS-Gold holds near 2-week low ahead of U.S. Fed meeting PhillyBurbs.com

 

Maybe the volume will pick up sometime after the meeting, and news (if any) is announced.

I added Gold and GLD calls Friday, and again today

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

After the close, I was still encouraged

 

I hope you are right - there is a nasty down-channel in place.

Meanwhile on CDNX we never got the buy signal

 

GLD is touching (or approaching) the expected support at/on the The "great" 480d-MA:

 

gldd.gif

 

... with lighter and lighter volume

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Sometimes, it seems like the Press is trying to talk you out of owning Gold

 

PRECIOUS-Gold near 2-1/2-week low as safe-haven appeal dims

CNBC - 77 Minutes ago

SINGAPORE, Jan 29 (Reuters) - Gold edged up on Tuesday but did not drift too far from a 2-1/2-week low hit in the previous session as promising U.S. economic data fuelled optimism about an economic recovery,

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Bullish Tumbleweeds are rolling on the "old" GOLD thread - in the Traders section:

 

6 days between posts on the Gold thread....

It's time for tumbleweed

tumbleweed-bonneville-utah_37585_990x742.jpg

 

Large gaps = Lack of interest AND/OR very poor sentiment)

 

Could be bullish

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

GBS (the UK equiv. of GLD) is up the equiv. of $6 per ounce

 

GBS-chart

 

Let's see some more volume to the upside !

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

THIS is the type of Bullish action I have been wanting to see !

 

Gold up $13.50

t24_au_en_usoz_6.gif

 

That's a good sign, and encourages one to think the Low May Be In.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Gold up smartly!

Just when some were getting defensive*

 

t24_au_en_usoz_6.gif

 

Today's rally (+$15) comes in the nick to time.

 

It helps Gold to hold that important 480d-MA.

And makes yesterday's drop look like a mere gap-filling exercise.

 

Thank goodness, the (new) bulls may be saying.

 

 

GLD : 162.481 +1.281 . . . . . GLD-chart

Open: 162.66 / High: 162.77 / Low: 162.42

Volume: 1,708,926

Percent Change: +0.79%

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

We talked about Gold

 

(Apologies for the nasal quality of my voice - and it was very late - but I think it makes sense.)

 

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HJ37sZTwMrs

 

THIS Chart goes with the interview

 

Sidewinding Gold - is still winding sideways (after all these months) ... update

 

gld.gif

 

The past 12 months ... update

 

gld12mo.gif

 

Bernanke's Racetrack: Gold (GLD) vs Stocks (SPY) ... update :RACE2 : GLD-hourly : SPY-hourly : GLD/SPY-Ratio

 

benrace.gif

 

The Fed's money-printing has maintained confidence in markets - but the money has gone not only into stocks, but also into other areas. Obviously, money has also flowed into commodities like Gold, pushing prices higher even faster than stocks, as the chart above shows.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

V's move should be good for gold

- my prediction (in the podcast) of currency falls did not take long to score big:

 

Venezuela's dramatic 45% devaluation is really a first big shot in the Currency War

 

...the US Federal Reserve, the Swiss National Bank, the Bank of Japan, the Central Bank of Brazil, and the People's Bank of China, all of whom have been very interested in the relative valuation of their currencies. And this is a list that matters because three of the top five global currencies are represented on that list and all of them have been engaged in competitive devaluations of their currency in order to promote their own exports.

This form of international contest, he continues, should strike those with a sense of history as similar to the trade and tariff wars of the Depression Era 1930's: “beggaring thy neighbor” in order to extract one's own country from economic straits. In the 1930's, the “beggaring” took the form of either abandoning the gold standard, literally blocking the importation of foreign goods, or imposing tariffs so high that imports were effectively blocked.

This time around, he warns, there are no gold standards to abandon and international trade rules have become too ingrained, both economically and legally, for onerous tariffs or outright bans to be practical or legal. Thus, the only economic weapon left is that of currency devaluation.

===

/more: http://nesaranews.bl...us-economy.html

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I am probably bearish on gold if it closed weekly beneath $1499 in dollar terms. I am neutral at the moment. I would be bullish above $1800.

 

Same with £ terms, I am neutral and have an invested/insurance position only. To be honest nothing has really happened with gold for nearly 2 years - that is why I haven't really commented on the gold threads, or gold stocks. My trading plans are pinned on the wall, so until they trigger, its back to sleep Zzz.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Yes.

The 480d MA (about $160.30) was broken on Monday.

 

Tuesday: GLD-chart

GLD : 159.89 +0.19

Open: 159.35 / High: 160.05 / Low: 158.88

Volume: 7,615,019

Percent Change:+0.12%

 

Gold has unfortunately broken below the 480d-MA : GBS-chart

 

So I now regard it as "highly vulnerable" to further falls

 

goldlf.png

 

If gold rallies back quickly enough (today), it might still be okay, technically speaking

= =

 

Paul Thomasen chips in:

"Gold looks to have broken down from an 18 month consolidation and topping pattern - which can't be great news for gold bugs.

Before getting too excited we need to receive the pre-requisite technical confirmation that a new significant downtrend has commenced from our analytics models - this information is available to subscribers only - sorry."

 

This is no time for complacency about Gold prices.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now
Sign in to follow this  

×