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Measured in Gold / Charts by G0ldfinger : gei-GFX

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Measured in Gold / Charts by G0ldfinger

/ Link to here : http://tinyurl.com/gei-GFX

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/source: post#4642 : http://www.greenener...ic=4058&st=4640

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MORE:

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http://gold.approxim...old_charts.html

Chart of the month (January 2013)

They say history does not repeat, but it rhymes sometimes. If, for the purpose of this little column, we assumed that gold price history rhymes from time to time, we would possibly first note, that ever since gold assumed its multi-decade low in 1999 (the infamous Brown Bottom) and then, a year or two later, started its rise in a now more than a decade long bull market, there have been five prominent price spikes: on 2001-05-21 with $288.35, on 2003-02-05 with $385.00, on 2006-05-12 with $725.75, on 2008-03-17 with $1,023.50, and on 2011-09-05 with $1,896.50 (prices are LBM AM Fixings). If we number these price spikes from 1 to 5, we can see that 1 and 2, respectively 3 and 4, are closer to each other. Expressed differently, they seem to come in pairs. Further more, the rise within the pairs (1 to 2 and 3 to 4) was 34% and 41%, while from one pair to the next (2 to 3 and 4 to 5), if we assume that the most recent fifth spike belongs to a pair as well, it was 89% and 85%. If we take the middle of these respective moves, and also extrapolate the times between them into the future, we could try and guess what a sixth (second spike in a third pair) and a seventh price spike (first spike in a fourth pair) could look like (see also chart below). Our guess would be 2013-06-24 with $2,603.37 (spike 6) and 2015-01-29 with $4,865.73 (spike 7). So, should you be surprised if you would see a $1,000 move in gold in the first half of 2013? We think you shouldn't.

Best wishes for 2013 from the Approximity Gold Team!

Gold_USD_LOG_GUESS_130101.png

 

===

/see: http://www.greenenergyinvestors.com/index.php?showtopic=2874&st=29760

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(This fits here too):

 

UK HOUSE PRICES - expressed in Gold

 

10573427.png

 

/source: http://www.sharelynx.com/chartstemp/UKHousePrices01.php

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Interesting.

We may see that downthrust, on the next Upthrust in Gold.

In other words, once it starts, a big portion may be delivered quickly, as support will be broken.

 

I believe: A weaker Pound may not save the UK Housing market, especially if inflation (higher gold) forces rates higher

 

 

Thanks GF, nice to have your input around here from time to time. I wonder how long before we enter that green circle? Let's hope as fast as you can say 'gold silver ratio'? That chart and forecast simply was a knockout..as was the bounce back to 52.

 

If we do go into the Green circle, it might also take a little longer than show - as the last time did

 

bankvault.png

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goldjpy.png

Could you wang these onto the chart thread of GF's?

Thanks.

 

BTW where the hell is that thread?

 

Done !

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GF's "Sell Plan"

 

Do you have a sell plan?

If not yet, what will you want to see before beginning to develop one?

== ==

 

Contrary to a single stock someone may trade, gold - for me - is a long-term macro-"trade" (investment).

 

Also, it is macro in a global sense. It is political. Because it is political, I can't come up with all the brilliant ways politicians may screw up over the next decade or so. I look at my quantitative fundamental indicators, but politics will have to be in line too. A "Volcker" at the Fed again? Unlikely, I suppose, but who knows. With Obama, Bernanke (and maybe Yellen), Draghi, Carney and Abe in place, given the fundamental quantitative indicators, I can only conclude: "very strong buy"!

 

Yeah. I agree with that.

And more importantly, so does Kyle Bass - who remains a long term bull on Gold:

.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rQdlifGg7eI

.

What I was really asking was:

Are you tracking closely the other indicators such as the Gold-to-Oil ratio (which I know you look at) - as a key indicator to tell you WHEN to sell Gold?

.207j.png

.

For me, something like a 25:1 Ratio, of Gold-to-WTI would get me thinking of switching out of Gold into Oil, or maybe out of Gold altogether.

.

Have you got a long term chart showing Gold-to CRB ?

.

If you like this "Ratio" approach to valuing Gold, what else would you look at?

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Gold-to-CRB is key to what Institutional Advisors (Bob Hoye, Ross Clark) use as their proprietary index.

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GF's Gold Target

 

Where's "There", GF?

 

I think we could see $1500-1600 by October, perhaps sooner

 

Jake's response / as posted on the Main Gold thread

 

Well, despite being made to sound a fool-especially in a time where house prices are rising and gold has been falling-I'll have a crack at the definition of 'there' for GF according to his Gold to UK house prices chart. He is rather good at charts.

So... he sees on the charts a number between 55 and 80 ounces of gold will buy you the average UK house. The average UK house is now 163k. Let's say 165k. 165k divided by 85 is 1,941. And 165 divided by 55 is 3000.

 

So 'there' could be anywhere between GBP1900 and GBP3000/oz = USD2,971and USD4,692. Gold at present is GBP 875/oz or USD1,360. Seems crazy unless you remember Gold started at USD252/oz or GBP157 about 13 years ago..(around 1.60 to GBP)...thus Multiple of 5.5. Gold only needs to double here to make GF's chart start to look realisticaly mouthwatering. eg gold at GBP1750x80 ounces=140,000.

 

With all the damage and debt, printing and trouble we are seeing-yet papering over-it is not beyond the realm of reason to imagine that gold will go far higher than these numbers. And/Or it may not. House prices and stocks may well simply fall-although you'd be seen a fool to suggest so right now...all the more reason to think it, IMHO.

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Update

 

DJIA-Gold-Ratio_LOG_DrBubb_131511.png

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Looking unlikely to drop into those circles anytime soon BUT I thought that re the gold silver ratio before it dropped straight into the target area. Perhaps another glance at that old chart will act as a "pick me up" tonic.

 

(scroll up a few posts to see that drop on the gold

Soled ratio)

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Sadly GF's gold.approximity site seems to have gone.

If anyone has info on how to find those great charts please let me know.

The wayback machine seems to be of little help.

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He used to visit here from Time-to-time.

 

If he pops back in, maybe he can give us a new link, or even update some charts here, on this thread.

Whichever he likes...

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He used to visit here from Time-to-time.

 

If he pops back in, maybe he can give us a new link, or even update some charts here, on this thread.

Whichever he likes...

Dominic will know where/what's become of him.

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Dominic will know where/what's become of him.

I'm a bit curious/worried of late as to what has happened to GF and approximity. Dominic, do you still visit here?

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Dominic posts maybe 1-2 times a month these days, and sometimes less than that

 

GK himself might post once or twice a year. But we may see him more than that, if/when Gold resumes it s Bull market.

 

What price do you think we need to see to confirm that the Gold Bull is back?

 

Martin Armstrong says that Gold will start to rally in 2016 after a stock crash later this year.

The core economy (the US) will be the last one to collapse, in his view

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I wonder of his thoughts now on the inflation/deflation debate. Wtf happened to his site? His thoughts on Greece, living in the fatherland would be interesting, too. Really just like to hear he's alive and wasn't on that doomed flight from SPain to Germany. His complete(?) absence here gives me the shivers as he was such a confident poster.

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I seem to recall that GF said in the past that he was doing some work for a hedge fund, hopefully there is a simple answer for his absence such as he isn't allowed to publish any of his work while this is going on ?

 

Anyway I wish him all the best and offer my sincere thanks for helping educate so many of us.

 

GF if you get to read this thread ........

 

I thank you Sir !!

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DOW to GOLD Ratio

 

200 Years

DOWGold_Ratio_1800to2008_pred2.gif

Since 1928 (to 2009)

Dow-Gold-Ratio-Generational-Cycle.png

since 1910 (to 2015), Log scale ... w/ fewer lines

Dow-toGold-LT-c_zpszfyzkhhu.gif

 

Three Years : Dec. 2013 to Dec. 2016

 

INDU-toGold_zpsjzjee1fh.png

 

GLD / Gold : 5-yrs : 3-yrs : 2-yrs : 12-mos / 10d // Last: $107.93 : Gold: $1133.6

GLD-5yrs_zpsmrijtxxe.gif :

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