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COMMODITIES : Crude Oil, from Nowhere Land to Bull breakout


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NYMEX-Crude drops below $94 on US stockbuild; China data eyed

Reuters India - 4 Hours ago

SEOUL, April 10 (Reuters) - U.S. crude slipped below $94 a barrel on Wednesday as a sharp rise in domestic oil stockpiles dented the outlook for demand from the top consumer, although intensifying geopolitical

 

UPDATE 1-China's March crude oil imports down 2.1 pct y/y

Reuters India - 3 Hours ago

* March imports 5.43 mln bpd, down 2.1 pct on yr

* Q1 imports at 5.59 mln bpd, down 1.2 pct y/y on daily basis

BEIJING, April 10 (Reuters) - China's daily crude oil imports in March fell 2.1 percent versus

 

(Grain):

 

Wheat Drops Ahead of USDA Report That May Show Higher Reserves

La Repubblica - 4 Hours ago

April 10 (Bloomberg) -- Wheat declined before a U.S. Department of Agriculture report today that may show higher world inventories before the 2013 harvests, boosted by bigger stockpiles in the U.S.

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  • 3 weeks later...

CRUDE: Still in the Long sideways...

 

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  • 2 months later...

OIL and Oil Service could be set for a big move UP ... if the mirroring holds up for the next step

 

OIH / Oil Service ... update

 

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A break of $46 could herald a Big move up

 

Note the nice mirroring that we see here:

 

4gm.gif

 

Using some imagination and a straight edge, you might get THIS:

 

t1d.gif

 

What's coming, a "surprise" in the Middle East or something?

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OIL and Oil Service could be set for a big move UP ... if the mirroring holds up for the next step

 

 

 

Using some imagination and a straight edge, you might get THIS:

 

t1d.gif

 

What's coming, a "surprise" in the Middle East or something?

 

Very possibly;

 

RT

 

http://rt.com/usa/dempsey-syria-us-assad-268/

 

 

"US preparing for military action in Syria, top US general says

President Barack Obama is considering using military force in Syria, and the Pentagon has prepared various scenarios for possible United States intervention.

 

Army Gen. Martin Dempsey, chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, said the Obama administration is deliberating whether or not it should use the brute of the US military in Syria during a Thursday morning Senate hearing.

 

Gen. Dempsey said the administration was considering using “kinetic strikes” in Syria and said "issue is under deliberation inside of our agencies of government,” the Associated Press reported from Washington.

 

Dempsey, 61, is the highest ranking officer in the US military and has been nominated by Pres. Obama to serve a second term in that role. The Senate Armed Services Committee questioned him Thursday morning as part of the nominating process when Dempsey briefly discussed the situation in Syria.

 

Last month, the Obama administration concluded that Syrian President Bashar al-Assad used chemical weapons during the ongoing battles. Deputy National Security Advisor for Strategic Communications Ben Rhodes said, “The intelligence community estimates that 100 to 150 people have died from detected chemical weapons attacks in Syria to date; however, casualty data is likely incomplete.”

 

Pres. Obama said previously that the use of chemical weapons would cross a “red line” and likely trigger American intervention. When the White House concluded Assad had relied on chemical warfare, Rhodes said, “both the political and the military opposition . . . is and will be receiving US assistance."

 

That claim was met with skepticism, though. The Syrian Foreign Ministry called Obama’s claims a “caravan of lies.” Vitaly Churkin, Russia’s ambassador to the United Nations, later presented to the UN evidence supplied to his government that suggested the Syrian opposition fighters used chemical weapons.

 

With regards to foreign intervention, UN Secretary General Ban Ki Moon said, “Providing arms to either side would not address this current situation.” Sen. Rand Paul (R-Kentucky) and his father, former congressman Ron Paul (R-Texas) have also cautioned the White House against aiding Syrian rebels.

 

“You will be funding today the allies of al Qaeda” by aiding Syrian rebels, Sen. Paul said in May.

 

On his part, the retired lawmaker from Texas insisted that the administration’s lead up to possible intervention is “identical to the massive deception campaign that led us into the Iraq War.”

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It was a challenging first half of the year for most commodities, with only two resources we track on ourPeriodic Table of Commodities Returns rising in value. Natural gas and oil rose 6.5 percent and 5 percent, respectively, while silver lost a third of its value and gold lost a quarter of its price from the beginning of the year.

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Consider the extreme pessimism on gold. As one measure of how bears have ganged up against the yellow metal, take a look at the spike in the level of short positions on the precious metal since the beginning of the year. As of the beginning of July, the number of outstanding gold short contracts was close to 140,000!

jul162013_2.gif

 

In June, while I was on CNBC’s Squawk Box, Howard Ward, the chief investment officer of GAMCO Investors, made a bullish call based on the severity of the speculative short position:

“It was off the charts, just like it was a week ago for the short position and the yen, the pound and euro. Well, we’ve seen what happened to that. You wanted to be on the other side of that trade. I’ll take the other side of the gold trade as well. Whenever so many people are on one side, I will take the other side. I think gold probably rallies between here and the end of the year.”

===

/more: http://www.kitco.com/ind/Holmes/2013-07-16-Commodities-2013-Halftime-Report-A-Time-to-Mine-for-Opportunity.html

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  • 1 month later...

WikiLeaks cables: Saudi Arabia cannot pump enough oil to keep a lid on prices

 

US diplomat convinced by Saudi expert that reserves of world's biggest oil exporter have been overstated by nearly 40%

 

The US fears that Saudi Arabia, the world's largest crude oil exporter, may not have enough reserves to prevent oil prices escalating, confidential cables from its embassy in Riyadh show.

 

The cables, released by WikiLeaks, urge Washington to take seriously a warning from a senior Saudi government oil executive that the kingdom's crude oil reserves may have been overstated by as much as 300bn barrels – nearly 40%.

 

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The revelation comes as the oil price has soared in recent weeks to more than $100 a barrel on global demand and tensions in the Middle East. Many analysts expect that the Saudis and their Opec cartel partners would pump more oil if rising prices threatened to choke off demand.

 

However, Sadad al-Husseini, a geologist and former head of exploration at the Saudi oil monopoly Aramco, met the US consul general in Riyadh in November 2007 and told the US diplomat that Aramco's 12.5m barrel-a-day capacity needed to keep a lid on prices could not be reached.

 

According to the cables, which date between 2007-09, Husseini said Saudi Arabia might reach an output of 12m barrels a day in 10 years but before then – possibly as early as 2012 – global oil production would have hit its highest point. This crunch point is known as "peak oil".

. . .

In the last two years, other senior energy analysts have backed Husseini. Fatih Birol, chief economist to the International Energy Agency, told the Guardian last year that conventional crude output could plateau in 2020, a development that was "not good news" for a world still heavily dependent on petroleum.

 

Jeremy Leggett, convenor of the UK Industry Taskforce on Peak Oil and Energy Security, said: "We are asleep at the wheel here: choosing to ignore a threat to the global economy that is quite as bad as the credit crunch, quite possibly worse."

 

http://www.theguardi...tated-wikileaks

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