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Capitalist Pig's Market Observations

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Hoping for some big clawback.

Often we see the worst damage early in the day... but not always

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Hoping for some big clawback.

Often we see the worst damage early in the day... but not always

 

I don't think it will happen. Too much overhead resistance now.

 

GLD hasn't got much momentum on the minute charts. I know what you mean by clawback, but the strength isn't there.

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Have you noticed that...

 

Gold started a big fall just after Ben Fulford viewed the huge Gold reserves (held by Dragon families),

and confirmed they were there. He just hasn't published the photos yet.

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Have you noticed that...

 

Gold started a big fall just after Ben Fulford viewed the huge Gold reserves (held by Dragon families),

and confirmed they were there. He just hasn't published the photos yet.

 

Have you got a link?

 

BTW, is there any turn cycle significance in the markets around 21/12/12, the winter solstice (and the end of the world :) )?

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Have you got a link?

BTW, is there any turn cycle significance in the markets around 21/12/12, the winter solstice (and the end of the world :) )?

 

See DrBubb's Diary.

 

Any turn cycle significance in the markets around 21/12/12?

Yeaaah !! I would have thought so,

A 6,000 year calendar rolling over just might be meaningful.

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Haha

 

Newmont is now UP on the day / NEM-chart

 

 

NEM: 43.96 Change: +0.21

Open:43.31 / High:43.96 / Low:42.96

Volume:6,508,262

Percent Change:+0.48%

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Haha

 

Newmont is now UP on the day / NEM-chart

 

 

NEM: 43.96 Change: +0.21

Open:43.31 / High:43.96 / Low:42.96

Volume:6,508,262

Percent Change:+0.48%

 

 

Yep. Nice reversal candle in GDX too.

 

I managed to catch gold right at the bottom, and Silver within 20 cents (Futures prices, not ETF). I told you I was watching the market like a hawk today :).

 

I have limit orders to double up. Hopefully will get filled over the night.

 

Did you buy any calls, Dr B?

 

I think we're due a $50 bounce.

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No.

It is sleeping time here

 

BOT my GDX calls one day too early

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gld211212.png

 

GLD at a major pivot point, following an ABC correction. Target, $163 to $166. The vast majority of ABC corrections I have seen, do not resolve in an immediate trend to new highs. They usually spend a while base building. That implies sideways volatility.

 

Can anyone provide any examples which are contrary to my above statement?

 

The other scenerio, the moving averages become resistance, and we break $158. This would signal Gold is going down with the broad market, so I would not expect $150 to hold for a fourth time.

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So far, this is a nice looking a-b-c down, with A and C of similar size.

 

But what is not ideal, is the much heavier volume on the C leg

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Silver formed some sort of Broadening wedge.

 

slv211212.png

 

 

Intraday

 

silverintaday211212.png

 

It broke out and failed. I would like to see this take out resistance at 3030 soon (also the 38.2% retracement). I doubled up on Friday afternoon, but quickly sold the new half as I saw it was going to break 3000.

 

Silver appears to be lagging Gold, whereas it has tended to lead. Not sure what this means?

 

Longterm

 

silverlongterm211212.png

 

Failure to bounce here, base build and/or rally, will not look good for Silver. A break below $29 will mean a significant drop indeed. Perhaps $22?

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So far, this is a nice looking a-b-c down, with A and C of similar size.

 

But what is not ideal, is the much heavier volume on the C leg

 

It is a nice looking ABC. It was about $5 off from being a perfect ABC.

 

Not sure what to make of the volume though? It certainly ain't light, as one would expect, going into the holiday period.

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GLD at a major pivot point, following an ABC correction. Target, $163 to $166. The vast majority of ABC corrections I have seen, do not resolve in an immediate trend to new highs. They usually spend a while base building. That implies sideways volatility.

 

 

Nadeem Walayat's Gold Price Forecast is in. A volatile sideway's trend for 2013. He say's an imminent bounce towards $1710, then a break lower towards $1580. Which is roughly equivalent to my above GLD price target.

 

http://www.marketora...ticle38201.html

 

Beyond 2013, I still see a parabolic move. This will likely occur after the broader stock market has bottomed. My plan is to trade these sideways up/down Gold trends, to increase my trading capital. This means I can take on a far greater position when/if Gold goes parabolic.

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Silver formed some sort of Broadening wedge.

 

slv211212.png

 

 

Intraday

 

silverintaday211212.png

 

It broke out and failed. I would like to see this take out resistance at 3030 soon (also the 38.2% retracement). I doubled up on Friday afternoon, but quickly sold the new half as I saw it was going to break 3000.

 

Silver appears to be lagging Gold, whereas it has tended to lead. Not sure what this means?

 

Longterm

 

silverlongterm211212.png

 

Failure to bounce here, base build and/or rally, will not look good for Silver. A break below $29 will mean a significant drop indeed. Perhaps $22?

 

Touch the line, then maybe: "KIss it goodbye" ?

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Touch the line, then maybe: "KIss it goodbye" ?

 

Possibly. We shall see. But then, that would suggest Gold will make another low?

 

Mixed signals in the precious metals.

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SHORT LIST

 

AZO - Looks ripe for a short about here.

 

azo251212.png

 

BIDU - A bit late to the party, but could be a low risk short on a rally to the 21WMA.

 

bidu251212.png

 

PCLN - Nearly ripe

 

 

pcln251212.png

 

JAZZ - It's topping, but too early to short. Up over 100 fold in three years! Can you imagine the panic in this stock when it finally breaks down?

 

 

jazz251212.png

 

 

[url=

 

PCYS - Same as JAZZ. Up over 100 fold in 3 years.

 

 

pcyc251212.png

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SHORT LIST

 

AZO - Looks ripe for a short about here.

 

azo251212.png

 

 

 

Weak day for the AutoZone

 

AZO: 348.25 -7.92

Open: 345.47 / High: 350.88 / Low: 342.84

Volume: 866,512

Percent Change: -2.22%

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Examine the below chart very carefully. GLD has gapped up into a major pivot point, on the 1 hour charts.

 

However, it could momentarily push higher tomorrow. Just to run the stops, and fill the gap from last week. But that is a risky call.

 

Right here is a good time to cut my position, IMO.

 

 

 

gld100113.png

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As GLD has broken significant support, it appears the pattern from October is an ABCDE, rather than an ABC. We are in the E wave.

 

Ultimately, I expect the price to hit the bottom trend line anytime from late Feb, to mid March, and then s sizable bounce. Perhaps to $165 ($1700). Which, is also roughly 61.8%.

 

GLD is not far from the the middle trend line. I think a likely scenario is a bounce of this trend line, for a $20 - $30 move. It could hit the middle trendline as early as tomorrow. $156/$1620 is the pivot point

 

 

gld140213.png

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As GLD has broken significant support, it appears the pattern from October is an ABCDE, rather than an ABC. We are in the E wave.

 

Ultimately, I expect the price to hit the bottom trend line anytime from late Feb, to mid March, and then s sizable bounce. Perhaps to $165 ($1700). Which, is also roughly 61.8%.

 

It hit very near the bottom of the trend line. What I did not expect, was for it to happen the next day!!

 

I suspect a bounce is due here. I am not yet sure of the magnitude though.

 

 

gld170213.png

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What if Gold continues sliding to the bottom of the trading range ($1525 - $1800)?

 

Those moving averages (168wma & 177wma) go right back to the 2008 lows.

 

I am sure there is no need to explain the significance.

 

gold170213.png

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Capitalist Pig's Forecast - A rally to $1460 in the next two weeks, which is where I expect the 89 Hour moving average (GLD) to be. Then ... Wham! Smack down to new lows.

 

I think an actual bottom may come in the next 6 weeks.

 

My Gold stocks - I currently only have two meaningful positions in Gold stocks.

 

Timmins Gold and Atna resources. Timmins Gold is safe to hold, as they are one of the few Junior producers who make real money (even at these prices), and have plenty of cash in the bank. Although I feel they could drop as low as $1.50 in the panic. Probably sell 1/3rd to half if a bounce materializes.

 

Atna is now a very uncomfortable position. They are producing Gold very near the Margin at these prices. Plus, they are in the ramp up phase of a second mine which adds risk to funds. I smell shareholder destruction, such as a placement. Sell at least half if a bounce materializes.

 

Unfortunately, my mind wasn't on the markets on Friday, where I had a good opportunity to exit my gold stocks. Only over the weekend did I realize the significance of Friday's move.

 

Overall on Gold stocks, I feel like a Deer stuck in the headlights of an oncoming truck.

 

On a positive note, my Trading account is all still very much in tact. I am actually quite excited about the swing trade opportunities I see in the coming weeks.

 

Will post Charts tomorrow ... Today has been an exhausting day!

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