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drbubb

Lessons Learned ... and what to learn yet

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"I am starting out, have clear (all or most of my) debts and am beginning to learn about investing

- say over 40% of those posting on the "financial situation" thread

 

May I ask:

 

+ What are the key lessons you have learned already?

+ What do you still want to learn about?

+ How will you go about learning it?

 

Is there any interest in a "drBubb Seminar" when i am back in the UK in June?

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+ What are the key lessons you have learned already?

To do my own research.

 

Not to jump on the latest bandwagon without looking more carefully. By the time the papers are talking about the latest "hot" thing, it's quite possible that all the money has already been made.

 

To be patient. One of my current best-performers went nowhere for quite some time before finally starting to move.

 

To be wary of trading costs. Since I'm starting off with small amounts of money, a certain amount can be easily gobbled up by these.

+ What do you still want to learn about?

Good question. There's alsorts out there but I suppose for me personally I have little knowledge of technical analysis and I'm also interested in the wide variety of ways and methods that one can use to gauge a company's value.

+ How will you go about learning it?

Books, websites, when I can squeeze it into my already complicated life!

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Lessons so far,

 

Beginning to understand technical analysis, so often deeply study a graph beforehand. Time your entry into dips & exits on the peaks, keep a close eye on them or put stop orders on to do this.

 

Somethings ideas ive come up with, I quite like the idea of buying shares on the back of good company reports, but good timing is needed to get in quick & the price also needs to be in a dip prior to this. If not, waiting for the next dip before you buy is good.

 

Just played with a disposable amount of cash to get used to things so far.

 

First punt on SRB (rather stagnant, sold as it wasnt going anywere in the medium-term).

Second punt on AVM (Broke even, although its started to rise now!)

Now On PELE, They just had their first gas well testing with good results last week. awaiting a more detailed report on the size of the reservoir in 2-3 weeks so here's hoping it turns out good. Motley fool have this at a target price of 50p+

 

+ What do you still want to learn about?

+ How will you go about learning it?

 

I find alot of my information out on the net, more information than people would normally think is available. Lots of learning sites too, which have helped

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"I am starting out, have clear (all or most of my) debts and am beginning to learn about investing

- say over 40% of those posting on the "financial situation" thread

 

Yep. That would be me.

 

+ What are the key lessons you have learned already?

 

1. Be Patient. Being financially ready to invest is not the same as being tactically ready to invest.

2. Research. Research history. Research the experiences of experienced investors. Research tactics, strategies and techniques. Research potential targets. Research researching targets. Research timing. Research the history of ignorance.

 

+ What do you still want to learn about?

 

I've got a fair handle on the most secure targets in my future portfolio. What I'm keen on pursuing now are value stocks, with a focus on dividend income, followed by the more speculative and riskier equities, for the far end of my portfolio.

 

With the former, I'd like to find out about analysing fundamentals. What do you ask in order to evaluate a good target and where do you find that information.

 

With the latter, because I happen to have bumped into the mining sector, and because the prospects for precious metals make that a good leveraged target in the current climate, I would like to find out about identifying viable junior miners and entry points for them. What do you study? Where do you get the information. Obviously, I can't visit the mine and chat to the management team, so how can I get the information that I need to make a judgement that doesn't involve spin the bottle?

 

+ How will you go about learning it?

 

You have provided an impressive list of resources for us, including podcasts, blogs and charting resources. I'll be looking into them, as time allows and asking any questions that arise, in this forum.

 

Is there any interest in a "drBubb Seminar" when i am back in the UK in June?

 

Yes. I would be interested in finding out more about that.

 

I believe that my greatest strength is that the one thing of which I am not ignorant is my ignorance.

 

"He who knows not, and knows he knows not..."

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To be patient. One of my current best-performers went nowhere for quite some time before finally starting to move.

 

I very important lesson. But not obvious perhaps.

One reason i have 40-50 (or more) stocks in my portfolio, is that I know some of them will be dormant for sometime before moving.

With such a large portfolio, it is likely that some number of them will be moving up smartly every month.

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1. Be Patient. Being financially ready to invest is not the same as being tactically ready to invest.

 

Charts can help guide you to the sweet spots

 

2. Research. Research history. Research the experiences of experienced investors. Research tactics, strategies and techniques. Research potential targets. Research researching targets. Research timing. Research the history of ignorance.

I've got a fair handle on the most secure targets in my future portfolio. What I'm keen on pursuing now are value stocks, with a focus on dividend income, followed by the more speculative and riskier equities, for the far end of my portfolio.

Perhaps you should research a service called Value Line

 

What do you ask in order to evaluate a good target and where do you find that information.

 

There's a thread on this: what are the right questions to ask. Let me knwo if you cannot find it

You might also take a look at the Ten Secrets of Investing in Junior Mining.

 

...because I happen to have bumped into the mining sector, and because the prospects for precious metals make that a good leveraged target in the current climate, I would like to find out about identifying viable junior miners and entry points for them. What do you study? Where do you get the information. Obviously, I can't visit the mine and chat to the management team, so how can I get the information that I need to make a judgement that doesn't involve spin the bottle?
I attend events like the Minesite Forms, Investor lunches, and conferences like the PDAC and the Indaba in Capetown

 

You have provided an impressive list of resources for us, including podcasts, blogs and charting resources. I'll be looking into them, as time allows and asking any questions that arise, in this forum.

 

There are more sources I keep discovering. And new ones keep popping up.

Charts help me find shortcuts through the limitless information, and sites like this one, Advfn.com, Stockhouse.com, etc.

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Thanks, DB. Much appreciated.

 

There's a thread on this: what are the right questions to ask. Let me knwo if you cannot find it

 

I had already seen the Junior Miners thread, but I can't find this one on evaluating stock targets.

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Im going to try something new with my investments...

Ive found that to much emphasis is put on tech analysis and that you are just as likely to pick a bad one as a good one. Based on all studied data the stock will either go up or down or do nothing. It is how you handle it when it is one of these states that is important.

 

If it is doing nothing do you hold,sell,buy more?

If it is falling do you hold,sell,buy more?

If it is rising to you hold,sell, buy more?

 

Should be simple shouldnt it, strip away all the gumpf analysis and you are left with 3 simple options, hold,buy or sell, by laws of average you should be right 33% of the time, then it should be a simple choice of selling for a small loss or selling for a big profit. Its never that simple though :lol:

 

Ive just been looking back at my past 18 months of trading or so and ive held stock and sold them way before i should of, ive picked plenty of tripple baggers and taken small profits instead of trippling money. Ive lost out on literally 10's of thousands of pounds from selling to soon.

 

I think the only thing you really need to know is decent risk management (something im not good at) to many people, myself included hold onto the falling stock and sell the rising one.

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VALUING GOLD MINERS and Explorers

 

:: For a Miner already in Production:

 

Take the Gold price - subtract cash cost per ounce = the expected Gold Margin

x Multiply by the Number of Ounces of Reserves

= Expected Maximum Enterprise Value

- Debt Outstanding

= Expected Maximum Market Capitalisation

(note: the actual could be less, because cash cost may rise over time, after higher grade ore is mined,

or the actual could be higher, if the company is expected to find more gold.)

 

:: For a Potential Miner, with a Mine under development:

Take the Gold price - subtract cash cost per ounce = the expected Gold Margin

x Multiply by the Number of Ounces of Reserves

= Expected Maximum Future Enterprise Value

- Debt Outstanding

- Capital needed to raise to build a mine

- maybe 20-50% as a buffer for risk that the mine may not work properly

= Expected Maximum Market Capitalisation

(note: the actual could be more or less, see reasons above.

The buffer tends to fall, market cap rises, as the mine successfully goes into production)

 

Do you want me to say more??

 

(I will start a thread in the Gold section)

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Lesson I've learnt is to buy when no good news is coming from a stock/commodity.

 

Purchased 10k of gold in may last year at around $665/ounce, it has now only just passed that price after peaking 2 weeks after my purchase.

 

However due to the dollar value against my stirling I will not see any return from this investment until gold reaches $730 at a guess.

 

No one becomes an expert without making mistakes :lol: But a little common sense helps to.

 

 

A Dr Bubb seminar sounds very intersting!

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...you are left with 3 simple options, hold,buy or sell,

by laws of average you should be right 33% of the time

 

As you say, it is not quite so simple.

A stock is unlikely to be unchanged 33% of the time, after some reasonable time period.

And for the average stock, a rise is probably slight more likely than a fall.

 

My guess - just a guess would be :

 

after maybe 1 month:

 

Rise : 50%

Fall : 40%

Unch: 10%

 

But the odds of a falling being more than 2-3%, might be higher than a rise being 2-3%

 

Actually, it might be interesting for some academics to do some studies on these percentages

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"I am starting out, have clear (all or most of my) debts and am beginning to learn about investing

- say over 40% of those posting on the "financial situation" thread

 

May I ask:

 

+ What are the key lessons you have learned already?

+ What do you still want to learn about?

+ How will you go about learning it?

 

Is there any interest in a "drBubb Seminar" when i am back in the UK in June?

 

1. Dont buy a penny stock in the hope it goes to £2 in a few months. Having looked a lots of stocks - none do that.

 

2. I would like to learn how people can turn £5000 in to £250,000 trading. Are they lucky or have a crystal ball?

 

3. Read Read Read.

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"I would like to learn how people can turn £5000 in to £250,000 trading. Are they lucky or have a crystal ball?"

 

I wonder how many £5,000 stakes were wiped out in an effort to do that?

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A seminar would be interesting, what are you initial thoughts on the content you would try and put forward Dr B. ?

 

So far I havnt traded, but I have noticed not to buy when emotions are in play.

example : Was watching a particular stock thought wow hit bottom got all excited about it, only to watch later it dropped more.

 

Still learning and doing so by digesting as much information as possible.

Hopefully developing a feel and control over my emotions when looking at potential entry and exit points when trading.

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A seminar would be interesting, what are you initial thoughts on the content you would try and put forward Dr B. ?

 

So far I havnt traded, but I have noticed not to buy when emotions are in play.

example : Was watching a particular stock thought wow hit bottom got all excited about it, only to watch later it dropped more.

 

Still learning and doing so by digesting as much information as possible.

Hopefully developing a feel and control over my emotions when looking at potential entry and exit points when trading.

 

good post; the importance of risk management is vital, I believe whatever level you trade at - maybe a good topic to address. I too would be interested in attending a seminar, DrB...

 

+ What are the key lessons you have learned already?

that the satisfaction and 'profit' in not making a bad trade can be as great as actively making a good trade

+ What do you still want to learn about?

Investment strategies to use at changing points in the economic cycle.

+ How will you go about learning it?

Anyone with any initiative can find an abundance of information, after that it's sorting the wheat from the chaff. Face to face meetings with similarly motivated people can concentrate the mind, though.

 

Having an enjoyable day job, I tend to err towards the 'idle' form of investment, so my research tends to be minimal - I invest conservatively to be comfortable, rather than being in it to make a fortune.

 

TLM

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+ What are the key lessons you have learned already?

 

- Read lots and think even more about what you have read

- Ignore any "advice" in what you read, concentrate on facts

- Trust your instinct

- Ignore the urge to invest for the sake of investing

 

+ What do you still want to learn about?

 

Some who isn't learning.. isn't living... I intent to be learning for ever :P

 

At the moment the theory of investing probably interests me most at the moment; but also management of money, risk analysis, how to formulate your own trading style would be of interest.

 

+ How will you go about learning it?

 

Reading... and more reading, then trying it for myself, failing and learning from it.

 

Is there any interest in a "drBubb Seminar" when i am back in the UK in June?

 

Certainly.. and meeting some of the posters here, who are way above my experience... I'm not sure I would understand everything... but I aspire too.

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