Jump to content
Sign in to follow this  
drbubb

South African Gold Stocks - charts

Recommended Posts

South African Gold stocks

 

Symbol Company : $Price : shares : Mkt.Cap : PER : Yield% : BkValue : Pr/Bk : Pr/Rv : OpCF : FreeCF

AU--- : AngloAsh. : $32.57 : 385m : $12.60B : 12.90 : 1.18% : $00.14 : 219 X : 242 X : $2.29B : $230m

GFI-- : Goldfields : $11.76 : 728m : $ 8.57 B : 09.06 : 2.90% : $07.74 : 162% : 175% : $1.90B : $445m

HMY- : Harmony-- : $ 7.99 : 431m : $ 3.45 B : 11.77 : 1.39% : $08.96 : 093% : 208% : $479m : -$137m

GOLD: Randgold : $119.9 : 92mn : $11.00B : 25.93 : 0.30% : $25.90 : 923% : 483% : $514m : -$144m

impuy : Impala Pl. : $17.35 : 607m : $10.52B : - N/A- : 0.58% : $09.40 : 190% : 345% : $566m : -$672m

agppy : A.Am.Plat : $ 7.67 : 1.62b : $11.98B : - N/A- : 0.61% : $04.04 : 193% : 252% : $568m : -$499m

 

AU / Anglo-Ashanti ... update // SAGS-charts (adv)

33845372.gif

 

GFI / Goldfields ... update

gfi.gif

 

HMY / Harmony Gold ... update

hmy.gif

 

GOLD / Rand Gold ... update

goldf.gif

 

Compare :

HUI / NYSE Arca Gold BUGS Index ... update

 

hui.gif

 

"The Gold Race" - Can Gold stocks catch up with Gold ? ... update

 

goldrace.gif

 

GOLD Reserves & Production

 

Symbol Company : $Price : shares : Mkt.Cap : PER : GoldOz : MC/oz : '11Prd : '12ProdE : MC/'12p

AU--- : AngloAsh. : $32.57 : 385m : $12.60B : 12.90 : XX.Xmn L $ X00. : X.X0mn : X.X0mn :

GFI-- : Goldfields : $11.76 : 728m : $ 8.57 B : 09.06 : 80.6mn : $ 106. : X.X0mn : 3.50mnE : $ 2,448

HMY- : Harmony-- : $ 7.99 : 431m : $ 3.45 B : 11.77 : XX.Xmn L $ X00. : X.X0mn : X.X0mn :

GOLD: Randgold : $119.9 : 92mn : $11.00B : 25.93 : XX.Xmn L $ X00. : X.X0mn : X.X0mn :

impuy : Impala Pl. : $17.35 : 607m : $10.52B : - N/A- :

agppy : A.Am.Plat : $ 7.67 : 1.62b : $11.98B : - N/A- :

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Interesting.

Which of these stocks do you like best?

They all seem pretty cheap.

 

Purely based on charts, I would go with Goldfields:

 

GFI / Goldfields ... update

gfi.gif

 

Here's GFI's One Year chart ... update

 

gfi1yr.gif

 

I need to do more work on fundamentals, before I buy.

The raw statistics also support the notion that GFI is the cheapest.

 

Symbol Company : $Price : shares : Mkt.Cap : PER : Yield% : BkValue : Pr/Bk : Pr/Rv : OpCF : FreeCF

AU--- : AngloAsh. : $32.57 : 385m : $12.60B : 12.90 : 1.18% : $00.14 : 219 X : 242 X : $2.29B : $230m

GFI-- : Goldfields : $11.76 : 728m : $ 8.57 B : 09.06 : 2.90% : $07.74 : 162% : 175% : $1.90B : $445m

HMY- : Harmony-- : $ 7.99 : 431m : $ 3.45 B : 11.77 : 1.39% : $08.96 : 093% : 208% : $479m : -$137m

GOLD: Randgold : $119.9 : 92mn : $11.00B : 25.93 : 0.30% : $25.90 : 923% : 483% : $514m : -$144m

impuy : Impala Pl. : $17.35 : 607m : $10.52B : - N/A- : 0.58% : $09.40 : 190% : 345% : $566m : -$672m

agppy : A.Am.Plat : $ 7.67 : 1.62b : $11.98B : - N/A- : 0.61% : $04.04 : 193% : 252% : $568m : -$499m

==============

 

QUARTERLY RESULTS

 

GFI OzProd inSA GldAv : RevsMn : GoldPr : $CCost : NetEarn : E.P.S. NCEpr -As%

===

Q1- 0,830 0,XXX $100. $1,285m : $1389R : $0,751 : $158m : $0.23 $1,093/oz 21%

Q2- 0,872 0,XXX $100. $1,411m : $1496R : $0,816 : $186m : $0.27 $1,178/oz 21%

Q3- 0,880E

Q4- 0,883 0,XXX $100. $1,534m : $1677R : $0,767 : $336m : $0.47 $1,206/oz 28%

'11 : 3,400E

===

Q1- 0,827 0,387 $100. $1,442m : $1679R : $0,870 : $268m : $0.39 $1,280/oz 24%

Q2- 0,862 0,437 $100. $1,408m : $1600R : $0,851 : $198m : $0.30 $1,308/oz 18%

==== 1,689 :

Q3- 0,906E

Q4- 0,906E

'12 : 3,500E

===

/website: http://http://www.go.../statistics.php

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

DOWN HARD - Why? A Strike is hitting the SA Miners

 

Sym. : Price +Chg. +Pct : Vol.

AU--- : $32.57 - 2.37 - 6.78% : 3.18mn

GFI-- : $11.76 - 0.74 - 5.92% : 5.63mn

HMY- : $ 7.99 - 0.30 - 3.62% : 2.38mn

GOLD: $119.9 - 5.07 - 4.06% : 629 k

impuy: $17.35 - 0.50 - 2.80% : 27,213

agppy: $ 7.67 - 0.14 - 1.79% : 0,713

ASA- : $24.16 -0.48 - 1.95% : 42,432

PTM.t: $ 1.02 + 0.02 +2.00% : 227k

====

GDX- : $51.52 - 1.59 - 2.99% : 14.8mn

GLD- : 168.79 -0.75 - 0.44% : 6.61mn

SPY- : 145.82 -0.38 -0.26% : 148.1m

DXY- : $79.38 +0.04 +0.05% : n/a

FXZ- : $25.11 +0.02 +0.08% : 22,629

 

The drops in SAGS (South African Gold stocks) were big and came on high volume. GFI hit my Buy Target, but I did not buy yet because I want to understand why the stocks are coming down so hard before buying. GFI is only $0.05 away from a new Low for the year, and a break of support there might trigger a deeper correction.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Rand slammed, hits 3-year low as strikes spread

 

Loss of mining revenue huge hit to growth / OCT. 8th

 

SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) — The South African currency tumbled to its lowest level in more than three years Monday as union activity in the country spread from the mining sector to truckers and possibly state employees, with the strikes now posing a threat to Africa’s biggest economy.

 

The U.S. dollar USDZAR .. update

 

usdzar.gif

 

...rose for a seventh day to buy almost 9 South African rand — touching its highest level since early 2009 — before edging back to 8.8592 rand. The greenback has shot up 8.7% against the rand this month, according to FactSet.

 

The WisdomTree Dreyfus South African Rand Fund SZR +1.65% , an exchange-traded fund which tracks the currency, lost 0.8% on the day. It’s lost 5.7% this month.

 

The iShares MSCI South Africa Index Fund EZA .. update

which tracks South African equities, fell 1.9% on the day and has declined 7% this month.

 

ezae.gif

 

“Until such time as industrial unrest abates and the underlying damage becomes a little clearer, then the [rand] will be susceptible to inevitable downward pressure,” said Neil Mellor, senior currency strategist at Bank of New York Mellon.

 

Strikes over wages started in August at a platinum mine owned by Lonmin PLC UK:LMI -0.96% LNMIY -3.18% . The labor unrest led to dozens of deaths, in what was the bloodiest police action since apartheid.

 

Close to 100,000 workers in South Africa have gone on strike in recent weeks, according to Reuters.

 

Workers at Anglo American Platinum ZA:AMS -1.30% , a subsidiary of Anglo American PLC UK:AAL -0.26% , were also on strike, and rejected the company’s firing of them, AFP reported. Anglo Platinum is the world’s largest platinum producer.

 

Last week, South Africa’s truckers went on strike, slowing transit of goods, while port and railway workers may join, Mellor noted. That led Royal Dutch Shell RDS.A -1.70% UK:RDSA -1.06% to declare force majeure on delivery commitments in South Africa because of the strikes. Read ibtimes.com report on Shell’s ‘force majeure’ in South Africa.

 

On Monday, a spokesman for South Africa’s union of local government workers said it has filed notice to embark on a national strike, according to Reuters

 

/more: http://www.marketwat...&dist=bigcharts

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

South Africa miners reject Zuma's plea to end strike

 

Salt Lake Tribune-5 hours ago

Fochville, South Africa • Ernest Morake shook his head and laughed when he heard that South Africa's president wanted striking miners to ...

 

 

== ==

680_241.jpg

 

South Africa mines: back to work and back on strike

Financial Times (blog)-14 hours ago

 

Jacob Zuma calls on all South African business leaders to freeze pay

In-Depth

-The Guardian-8 hours ago

Will South Africa's strike season ever end?

Blog

-Aljazeera.com (blog)-Oct 17, 2012

Strike season'

It is still traditionally 'strike season' in South Africa, that time of the year when workers bargain for wage increases.

But this year seems different for me.

I have never known the strike season to be this violent. For example, 34 striking miner workers were gunned down by police on August 16, at Lonmin Platinum mine in Marikana.

And the violence and continued unrest is beginning to take its toll on the average South African.

It is no longer: "When will this end" ...it is rather: "Why won't this end?!"

But it seems the nationwide strikes are growing and spreading. Some government-paid bus drivers have gone on strike, demanding a wage increase.

 

This could potentially inconvenience about 42,000 passengers.

As if things couldn't get any worse, municipal workers are threatening to go on strike soon.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

(This August 2012 Comment has proven to be a little premature, thanks to strike action)

 

South African gold producers looking best in 15 years: RBC

 

EXCERPT

 

“We believe gold equities are poised to outperform the gold price as investors take advantage of growing free cash flow,” he said.

Traditionally, analysts have used a 12x P/CF multiple to determine target prices, but now, even with an 8x multiple there is still implied upside of more than 50%.

“This compares to our American and Australian counterparts that use around 10x and leaves the South African gold producers now almost priced in line with our base metal producer universe,” he said.

Multiples in the base metal sector are at about 7x.

 

Overall, earnings per share forecasts are up “significantly” with most estimates up more than 100%. Price targets for the Tier I South African gold producers are up 9% and the rest of the industry 25%.

Among the major producers, Mr. Esterhuizen is most bullish on Harmony Gold Mining Co. Ltd., which is expected to deliver greater volumes at higher grades in the next two years on the back of several new projects.

/more: http://business.fina...n-15-years-rbc/

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

South African Gold Production Dives To 90 Year Lows

 

 

goldcore_bloomberg_chart1_15-03-12.png/

 

goldcore_bloomberg_chart4_15-03-12.png

 

The nearly 80% fall in South African gold production has led to it being recently overtaken by China, Australia and the U.S. It is now even at risk of being overtaken by Russia.

The scale of the collapse is such that it is worth considering the possibility that the Apartheid regime may have exaggerated the size of South African gold production. Indeed, similar questions could be asked of the massive increase in China's gold production in recent years and whether Chinese gold production tonnage figures are exaggerated.

The massive 11.3% decline in South Africa was more than even that seen in December when gold output fell by 8.2%.

 

The continuing output decline is due to many of the country's biggest gold mining operations having reached the ends of their lives and having closed down.

Old mines that are still operating are mostly getting deeper and deeper with safety concerns a limiting factor, while new operations coming on stream tend to be either small by comparison, low grade, or both.

 

South Africa's continuing gold production decline is not cyclical and is permanent and is another bullish factor for the gold market in the long term.

Geological constraints mean that there is little prospect of any serious reversal in the trend. Geological and the lack of any major gold finds anywhere in the world in the last 20 years also suggest that the supply side of the gold equation remains bullish.

The decline in South African production has been a major contributor to at best flat global gold production over the past few years.

======

/source: http://www.marketora...ticle33620.html

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

CALLS WORTH BUYING Soon ??

 

Benchmark Calls: $Stock: I.Value : 2013 : 2014 : 2015 :

====

GFI- : Jan$10C : $11.76 : $1.76 : $2.02 : $2.74 : $3.18 :

------ : ----------- : U /lying : $1.76 :+0.26 : +0.72 : +0.44 :

GFI- : Jan$11C : $11.99 : $0.99 : $1.39 :

 

AU-- : Jan$30C : $32.57 : $2.57 : $3.65 : $6.15 : $7.20

------ : ----------- : U /lying : $2.57 :+1.08 : +2.50 : +1.05 :

 

HMY : Jan$6.0C : $07.99 : $1.99 : $2.15 : $ ??

------ : ----------- : U /lying : $1.99 :+0.16 :

 

They don't trade much, if at all, but look at the terrific volatility in the notional price of these:

Harmony Jan.2014 $6 calls ... update

hmy6c.gif

 

Wow! Get the timing right, and you buy at $1.30, and sell 2 1/2 weeks later at $4.50.

 

That's a theoretical gain, since they did not trade at those prices,

 

The Goldfields calls should trade better.

 

GFI - Jan.13-$10C ... update

gfi10c2013.gif

 

GFI - Jan.14-$10C ... update

gfi10c15.gif

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

MORE DETAIL on the Strike Actions, #1:

 

Strikes in South Africa shut 39% of country’s gold production

 

posted on September 26, 2012 at 4:28 pm

003.jpg

 

Wildcat strikes have spread across South Africa’s mining sector. Strikes at AngloGold Ashanti (AU), Gold Fields (GFI), and other gold mining companies have halted about 39% of South African gold production. AngloGold said today that all production at its South African mines has been halted. The company is the world’s third largest gold producer.

For more on the South African strikes and their effect on prices for commodities such as gold and platinum see my September 25 posthttp://jubakpicks.co...rica/#more-9700

The latest round of the labor turmoil that began with a six-week strike at Lonmin’s (LNMIY) Marikana platinum mine isn’t limited to the mining sector, however. Coal of Africa (CZA.LN) workers have also gone out on strike along with 20,000 transport workers.

The new wave of strikes shares this with the Marikana strike: Workers have sidelined representatives from the National Union of Mineworkers in favor of representation by committees of their co-workers. The National Union of Mineworkers is a key ally of the African National Congress government. Opponents of the ruling faction of the African National Congress are attempting to use the strikes to challenge current party leadership.

There is one crucial difference, however, between the strikes on Lonmin’s platinum mine and the strikes in the gold fields. Read more

/more: http://jubakpicks.com/tag/gold/

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

MORE DETAIL on the Strike Actions, #2:

 

South Africa miners reject Zuma’s plea to end strike

 

By RODNEY MUHUMUZA

| The Associated Press

First Published 6 hours ago • Updated 6 hours ago

EXCERPT

 

... "We are not going to quit until we get the right offer," said a miner who gave his name as Manyane who is among the AngloGold Ashanti employees demanding at least 18,500 rand (about $2,100) in monthly pay, an increase from the 4,000 rand (about $450) per month they say they now get paid. "We are peaceful. But if they fire us and hire other people then that will start violence. If they do that we are going to war."

Strike action at gold and platinum mines had cost the country about 4.5 billion rand (more than $500 million) in lost output by mid-September, Zuma told a meeting of businessmen in Johannesburg last week. Citing the impact of unresolved strikes in the crucial mining sector, the credit rating agencies S&P and Moody’s have downgraded South Africa’s credit rating.

At the peak of the wildcat strikes, about 80,000 mineworkers — representing 16 percent of the mining workforce —were striking across South Africa. The wildcat strikes have been marred by violence, most notably an incident on Aug. 16 when police shot and killed 34 miners at a platinum mine in Marikana.

/more: http://www.sltrib.co...africa.html.csp

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

South African Gold stocks

 

Symbol Company : $Price : shares : Mkt.Cap : PER : Yield% : BkValue : Pr/Bk : Pr/Rv : OpCF : FreeCF

AU--- : AngloAsh. : $32.57 : 385m : $12.60B : 12.90 : 1.18% : $00.14 : 219 X : 242 X : $2.29B : $230m

GFI-- : Goldfields : $11.76 : 728m : $ 8.57 B : 09.06 : 2.90% : $07.74 : 162% : 175% : $1.90B : $445m

Wow!

Can that right?

 

GFI has a MktCap of $8.57 Billion, and annual Operating Cash Flow of $1.90 Billion?

 

That's something like 4.5x Operating CF?

 

If that is so, I will be buying some stock.

 

How much debt do they have?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I Did buy some GFI calls on Friday.

But was slow to pull the trigger, and so got fewer than I had wanted to.

=====

 

 

Recap Of The Major Mines Impacted By The South African Mine Strikes

19 October 2012, 1:59 p.m.

By Alex Létourneau

 

AngloGold Ashanti Ltd. (NYSE:AU)(JSE: ANG)

Despite a proposal from AngloGold on Oct. 11, where the company said they would improve miner’s salaries in order to get its six operations in South Africa back on track, their striking miners are not responded. The Chamber of Mines is conducting meetings between the two parties but there have been no significant updates as to when the strikes will end. Standard & Poor’s have said that they may cut AngloGold’s ratings to junk. The company has seen roughly 30,000 ounces of gold lost weekly as all of their South African operations have been shut down due to the strikes. AngloGold is headquartered in Johannesburg and has seven projects in the country. Last year the company produced 4.33 million ounces of gold from its 20 operations located across the Americas, Africa and Australia.

 

Gold Fields Ltd. (NYSE, JSE: GFI)

Gold Fields saw most of its KDC West and all of its Beatrix workers return to work this week. The only workers left striking are at Gold Fields’ KDC East, to whom the company issued an ultimatum to Friday, stating the workers are required to return to work Monday, or face dismissal. Despite the labor improvements, S&P also said they may cut Gold Fields’ rating. The company lowered its third quarter gold production Oct. 12 due to the strikes. Gold Fields said its third quarter gold-equivalent ounces are expected to be 810,000 ounces. That’s a drop compared to 862,000 ounces in the second quarter of 2012 and 900,000 ounces in the corresponding quarter one year ago, the company said. The company said that KDC produced 1.1 million ounces of gold in 2011 while Beatrix produced roughly 380,500 ounces of gold in 2011. Gold Fields is one of the largest unhedged gold producers with 3.5 million gold-equivalent ounces produced from eight operating mines in Australia, Ghana, Peru and South Africa.

 

Harmony Gold (NYSE: HMY)

Harmony Gold has been out of the news for the most part regarding the strikes at its Kusasalethu mine. There have been no updates from the company and they were mentioned briefly in news reports throughout the week, but nothing more than workers are still off the job. The company is currently engaged in negotiations with the Chamber of Mines, along with AngloGold and Gold Fields. Harmony Gold is South Africa’s third-largest gold producer. Its Kusasalethu mine produced over 180,000 ounces of gold in 2011.

 

Impala Platinum Holdings Ltd. (JSE: IPA)

Impala Platinum seems to be in the clear since it signed a deal Sept. 27, agreeing to a 4.8% market adjustment for its employees. There have been no issues that the company has reported since the deal was signed. Implats produced 1.84 million ounces of platinum and 3.77 million ounces of platinum group metals in 2011 from its Bushveld Complex in South Africa and the Great Dyke in Zimbabwe.

 

Anglo American Platinum Ltd. (JSE: AMS)

Amplats said they are holding off on more dismissals but they maintain that the 12,000 employees that were fired Oct. 5 will not be brought back. The company said that attendance remains below 20%, rendering their Rustenburg operations unsafe to operate. "We are faced with extremely complex challenges that require innovative solutions that will address the very real economic issues affecting the entire platinum industry,” said Chris Griffith, Amplats chief executive officer. “We believe that it is only right for us to engage with our recognized unions and work together to find the best way forward." Media reports Oct. 12 said Amplats lost over $126 million in revenue due to the ongoing labor disputes in South Africa, figures that continue to rise daily. On Oct. 10 police stopped hundreds of striking workers from storming the National Union of Mineworkers’ Rustenburg offices. There were no reports of death or injuries. Anglo American is the world’s largest platinum producer and accounts for roughly 40% of the world’s new platinum production. In 2011, the company produced 2.53 million ounces of platinum.

====

/more : http://www.kitco.com...SA_strikes.html

====

 

OTHERS include:

 

Atlatsa Resources Corp. (TSXV, NYSE MKT, JSE: ATL)

 

Gold One International Ltd. (JSE: GDO)

 

Kumba Iron Ore (JSE: KIO)

 

Lonmin Plc (LSE: LMI)

 

Petmin Mining Ltd. (JSE: PET)

 

Petra Diamonds Ltd. (LSE: PDL)

 

Village Main Reef (JSE: VIL)

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

GFI, braked and ready to go higher ? ... update

 

gfi.gif

 

 

GFI: $12.07 +0.22

Open:12.05 / High:12.17 / Low:11.94

Volume:4,285,280

Percent Change: +1.86%

==============

 

I hope some other GEI readers got some calls on this dip

 

Bought Calls on Goldfields / GFI

 

Gold Fields ADS Jan 2014 Call 10.00 (ONF)

 

+ I paid $2.78

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

 

The deal that was agreed could potentially end months of unrest, that culminated in 34 strikers being killed at Lonmin's platinum mine in Marikana.

About 100,000 workers in all have downed tools across South Africa since August which has led to awkward questions for President Jacob Zuma and the ruling ANC.

Many mines across the gold mining belt saw their production halted because of the strikes.

After three weeks of negotiations, the National Union of Mineworkers (NUM) and the gold industry, which employs around 157,000, announced agreement on wage increases of between 1.5 and 10.8 per cent for different categories of mine workers. It comes on top of a 10 per cent increase agreed in July.

 

Business Recorder (blog)-1 hour ago

Striking South African gold miners have signed a pay deal to end months of often violent labour unrest that has cost the economy at least $1.2 ...

 

South African miners agree pay deal

Telegraph.co.uk-6 hours ago

South African Mining Strikes Wane as Gold Workers Return

Businessweek-13 hours ago

== == ==

 

 

Strikes in mining sector cost S.Africa $1.1 bln

Oct 25 (Reuters) - Strikes hitting South Africa's platinum and gold mines have cost the continent's largest economy just over 10 billion rand ($1.14 billion) so far this year, the National Treasury said on Thursday.

 

Output from the world's top platinum and major gold producer has been curtailed by months of labour unrest that have hit the sector responsible for about 6 percent of gross domestic product, raising concerns about growth prospects.

 

"Declining mining output and the spread of strike activity has depressed activity in related industries including manufacturing, logistics and services, with negative consequences for GDP," the Treasury said in its interim budget policy statement.

 

In the year to August, mining output fell by 3.3 percent, with production of platinum group metals 15.3 percent lower, although strong iron ore demand from China has helped offset some of the decline in the platinum, gold and coal sectors, it added.

 

/more: http://www.reuters.c...E8LPILE20121025

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Anglo American chief to step down

Financial Times - ‎13 minutes ago‎

 

Cynthia Carroll, the chief executive of Anglo American, has resigned from her post at the strike-hit mining company after almost six years in the job.

/more:

== ==

Will it hit the AU price?

We shall see

 

At the Close:

AU : 32.45 -0.05

Open:32.63 / High:32.63 / Low:32.10

Volume:1,561,281

Percent Change:-0.15%

 

Meantime, GFI was: -0.75%

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

MORE GFI CALLS

 

Added these: GFI JAN 2013 10.0000 CALL at $2.12

 

But only part of my order filled

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Hey, I nearly bought some Goldfields stock yesterday.

But I decided to wait for a retest of the recent lows.

 

Why are you buying Calls, rather than the stock itself ?

 

At $11.90, the stock is $0.22 cheaper than your $10calls at $2.12.

And you miss out on the dividend, if any, between now and January.

 

Do you really think the stock can fall below $10 between now and January expiry?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Hey, I nearly bought some Goldfields stock yesterday.

I am waiting for a retest of the recent lows.

 

Why are you buying Calls, rather than the stock itself ?

 

At $11.90, the stock is $0.22 cheaper than your $10calls at $2.12.

And you miss out on the dividend, if any, between now and January.

 

Do you really think the stock can fall below $10 between now and January expiry?

No, I don't expect GFI to be below $10 by the third week in January, but you never know

 

And GFI's dividend policy is all over the place, but I don't see them paying one before January:

 

======= Type Declaration Date Payment Date

09/12/2012 XC 0.1903 : 8/28/2012 9/14/2012 9/27/2012

03/07/2012 XC 0.3030 : 2/27/2012 3/9/2012 3/22/2012

08/31/2011 XC 0.1401 : 8/16/2011 9/2/2011 9/15/2011

03/09/2011 XC 0.0975 : 2/22/2011 3/11/2011 3/24/2011

08/25/2010 XC 0.0961 : 8/12/2010 8/27/2010 9/9/2010

02/24/2010 XC 0.0647 : 2/09/2010 2/26/2010 3/11/2010

08/26/2009 XC 0.1035 : 8/07/2009 8/28/2009 9/10/2009

02/18/2009 XC 0.0304 : 1/29/2009 2/20/2009 3/5/2009

08/20/2008 XC 0.1654 : 8/06/2008 8/22/2008 9/5/2008

05/28/2008 XC 0.0857 : 5/14/2008 5/30/2008 6/12/2008

=========

Read more: http://www.nasdaq.co...y#ixzz2AWXjtZQk

 

So why buy Calls?

Three reasons:

 

+ Risk Control : you really do never know what the price will do, if it drops quickly to $11, I will lose less money with the calls

+ Leverage : my money goes further when I buy calls, rather than stock

+ Low cost protection :

 

GFI closed at $11.98, so at $2,12, I only paid an extra $0.14 (Time Value) for the $10 Calls

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

gfiza.gif

 

 

GFI-za: 10,224.50 -233.63

Open:10,364.00 / High:10,364.00 / Low:10,145.00

Volume:956,992

Percent Change:-2.23%

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I'm buying Lonmin. The record date for the rights issue is next Friday. I have time to get in and then bag my cheap shares in the rights issue

 

 

Lonmin (LMI) has announced that it intends to raise $817 million (£512 million) from a rights issue.

 

The 365.5 million new shares will be issued at 140p per share, a heavy discount to the current price. The proceeds will be used to reduce indebtedness and strengthen the company's overall financial position at a time of weak margins in the platinum mining industry.

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Lonmin? Interesting ... update

 

lmi.gif

 

"365.5 million new shares will be issued at 140p per share"

 

That is a cheap price !

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Platinum Group Metals Ltd: PLG.NYSE MKT, PTM.TSX

• Platinum Group Metals Ltd. is an emerging platinum producer developing the Western Bushveld Joint Venture (WBJV) platinum mine in South Africa and advancing the newly discovered Waterberg Project.

• The WBJV is one of the last remaining undeveloped shallow, high-grade platinum deposits in South Africa, adjacent to 70% of global production.

• Construction on the project has started with an initial $100M budget focused on development of underground access.

• Total capital cost of the project is anticipated to be approximately $506M USD.*

• A senior loan facility for a $260M (Barclays/Absa, Standard Bank, CAT Financial, Societe Generale) is anticipated to complete in Q4 2012.

• The projected operating cost is $655/4E oz (R650/tonne milled) making it one of the lowest cost platinum mines in the world.*

• Projected production of 275,000 ounces (4E) with a 20+ year mine life – initial production scheduled for late 2014. *

• Consolidation opportunity: Chinese state company Jinchuan acquired interest ($900M) in an adjoining project; Impala Platinum failed bid ($2.9B) for adjoining company Royal Bafokeng Platinum.

• The Waterberg Project on the North Limb in partnership with Japanese state company JOGMEC has led to the discovery of new area for platinum in South Africa. An initial 6.6M ounce inferred (3E) resource was published in September 2012 with an ongoing 10 rig drill program in process.

Share Structure:

Issued and Outstanding: 177,584,542

Fully Diluted: 195,018,042

Cash: $45M CDN

Market Capitalization: $200M CDN

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

A recipe for rescuing gold mines?

 

23 NOV 2012 - TEIGUE PAYNE

 

 

The resuscitation of Blyvooruitzicht gold mine could pave the way for other ailing mines, says Teigue Payne.

 

"An old lady whose Zimmer frame was breaking down." That's how Peter van den Steen described the state of Blyvooruit­zicht gold mine when he took over as a business rescue practitioner in June 2011, in one of the first business rescue cases under the new Companies Act. It is also one of the most successful so far, having saved – at least temporarily – hundreds of millions of rands in value and thousands of jobs by averting liquidation.

 

Van den Steen ascribes the success to a combination of the actions his team took, which could not have been taken without the new business rescue law, and a fortuitous increase in the rand gold price in late 2011.

 

Blyvooruitzicht is like many South African gold mines – it's deep, runs on ageing infrastructure, is undercapitalised and probably destined for extinction if it does not have special ongoing management care and attention.

===

/more: http://mg.co.za/arti...ing-gold-mines/

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Lonmin? Interesting ... update

 

lmi.gif

 

"365.5 million new shares will be issued at 140p per share"

 

That is a cheap price !

Yes, that's the one. I've bought my shares and I've put in for the rights issue.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now
Sign in to follow this  

×