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jsr

US Steel & Bethlehem Steel 1938

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Hi all

 

I have recently been reading Jesse Livermore's not very well known book, 'How to trade in Stocks', first published in 1940.

 

He talks about Natural Rally's, Secondary Rallies, and Natural Reactions. The concepts he presents have been notoriously difficult to grasp (possibly why the book never sold well, or why it's not well known Livermore wrote a book himself).

 

In the final Chapter, he has presented examples of how he recorded and determined the behavior and direction of stocks. Unfortunately, Livermore never looked at charts, so there is not one to go with the examples.

 

The two price examples presented, are US Steel and Bethlehem Steel. Would anyone know how I can obtain the daily OHLC prices of these stocks during 1938, or, even better, the daily OHLC charts themselves?

 

P.s. I believe the copyright has expired on this book, so it is easy to obtain on the internet for anyone who is interested.

 

Thanks.

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P.s. I believe the copyright has expired on this book, so it is easy to obtain on the internet for anyone who is interested.

Have you got a web link?

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Read the Chapter 'The Pivot Point' (pages 46-47).

 

Is Livermore referring to GDX?

 

The same price action as described. Only a minus one dollar offset.

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Yes, I enjoyed reading this last night. It's only about 10,000 words and reminiscent of Reminiscences

 

There are lots of messages to the book which haven't changed:

- when it doubles sell half

- dyodd

- find your own method and stick to it

- have good money management

- let your winners run; but don't do the same with your losers

- take a small loss and accept it; don't let it turn into a big loss

- listen to yourself not to tipsters (!)

- be patient - let the market come to you.

- get used to how a particular stock or index behaves - note when its behaving well and when it's behaving badly and trade accordingly

 

I didn't entirely understand his pivotal points, but from what I could see it was another way of identifying points of support and resistance and how a stock trades around them. $1,520 would, for example, be a pivotal point for gold.

 

Livermore was, when all's said and done, a trend follower, though he preferred numbers to charts. He appears to have had a gift for getting our right at the top.

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There are some charts of US STEEL here, I cannot post direct from the link as it is copyright material.

 

From excepts of

A Better Way to Make Money, By Burton H. Pugh

 

 

http://books.google....epage&q&f=false

 

Look at pages p151, p158, p168, p174.

 

The charts don't cover the right time periods, but it maybe a start.

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I don't believe the charts of US Steel or Bethlehem Steel are required, In the chapter "pivotal points", the answer is there on what to do.

 

"On another occasion, I recall waiting three weeks before starting to buy Bethlehem Steel. On April 7, 1915, it had reached its highest price on record $87*. Having observed that stocks passing a Pivotal Point gained rapidly, and being confident that Bethlehem Steel would go through 100, on April 8+ I placed my first my first order to buy and accumulated my line from $89 up to $99. The same stock sold up to a high of $117. It never halted in its upward flight except for minor reactions until April 13, or five days later, when it sold at a high of $155, a breath-taking rise. This again illustrates the rewards that go to the person who has the patience to wait for and take advantage of the Pivotal Points.

 

But I was not through with Bethlehem. I repeated the operation at $200 point, at the $300 point, and again at the dizzy peak of $400. Nor had I finished even then, for I had anticipated what would happen in a bear market, when the stock broke the pivotal points on the way down. I learned the main thing was to watch the follow-through as it crossed through the Pivotal Point. I found it was an easy matter for the me to turn around and get out of a position, when vitality was lacking after a stock crossed the Pivotal Point and there were many occasions when I reversed my position and went over to the short-side."

 

* New High breakout.

+ Looks like a Time stop.

 

So my interpretation would be to take the nearest round number when that new high was made. That would be $80 and have a stop not far from there. Accumulate stop where you can, but not too far from the new high. I would think it is about no more than 5% away ideally. From other book readings, traders recommend to have a target price at least two times your risk (i.e. your average price that you have bought at, minus the stop price = the amount you are risking). As soon as your target is reached you can comfortable raise your stop to the next "pivotal point". Perhaps that would be $110 when Jesse Livermore's states that it reached $117, and so on.

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http://webservices.i...al_Stock_Prices

 

No easy task, membership is required for access to old data.

 

This might have it, but there is a price not disclosed, http://www.globalfin....com/index.html

bethlehem+steel.JPG

I may ponder on how much just to download one data set, but we'll if there is anything out there that is free.

 

 

I emailed these guys at GF and they said they do not sell their services to individuals unfortunately! They said the smallest package is very expensive - no price was mentioned but I presume it might be like $10,000 per year or something like that.

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