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Toronto & Vancouver Real Estate Prices

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Toronto & Vancouver Real Estate Prices

o-TORONTO-VANCOUVER-facebook.jpg

 

Toronto's housing market rocketing upward in price, height

Toronto's economy is booming, and its housing market is booming right along with it. The city has an enormously large number of sky-rise buildings under construction, and many of them hardly get finished before they're purchased — usually for top dollar. All that has some wondering if Toronto might be heading for an American-style housing bubble.

TORONTO-HOME-PRICES-570_zpsixemx8qz.jpg
Madani sees a lot of common factors between what happened in the United States in the 2000s and what's happening in Canada today.

“We see the run-up in household debt, which is now almost as high as it was in the United States. We see the same run-up in the homeownership rate, just like what we saw in the United States," Madani said. "And then finally, of course, we’re also seeing the over-building and the new home construction, and this is particularly true in the condo market in cities like Toronto.”

Toronto is putting up the most high-rise buildings, anything from 12 to 39 floors, of any city in North America: 132. By way of comparison, the top U.S. city is New York. It’s building 86 high-rise towers.

The Pooles, the young couple looking to buy a place, are well aware of all of the construction in Toronto.

“Standing from our balcony there, we can see 14 cranes,” Chris said.

Chris has heard the warnings that Toronto is building too much too fast. But he said he knows the other side of the argument.

“Maybe we are behind what London, New York, what San Francisco is all about. Maybe this is sustainable, maybe this is the way things are going to be for a while," he said. "It’s hard to tell.”

Most economists and real estate insiders do agree that real estate values in Toronto will almost certainly be higher in 20 years. So for a young couple looking to invest for the long-term, there’s really no bad time to buy. That is, if there’s something they can afford.

. . .
My forecast is, this year, probably price growth of 2 or 3 percent. 2013, probably a price decline of about 4 percent decline,” said Craig Alexander, chief economist with TD Bank.

“We’ve penciled in around 25 percent price decline,” said David Madani with Capital Economics, though he emphasizes, that’s a rough estimate spread over several years.

“We just don’t know,” said Phil Soper, president and CEO of Royal LePage Services, a real estate company.

The big fear in Toronto, and even more so in high-flying Vancouver, is this: Is Canadian real estate at risk of an American-style collapse?


/more: http://www.pri.org/stories/business/toronto-s-housing-market-rocketing-upward-in-price-height-10012.html

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CHARTS

 

o-BMO-TORONTO-HOME-PRICES-570.jpg?6
/source:

akihitoy.jpg
/source:

sell­ing price for 2010 ris­ing about 2% from its cur­rent level to $412,000

OK0PFk4.jpg

> source: https://www.greaterfool.ca/2011/09/29/obsession/

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74536_4.jpg

 

> RENT at The Chaz : http://www.kijiji.ca/b-apartments-condos/gta-greater-toronto-area/yorkville-charles/k0c37l1700272

Old Terms:
Deposit Structure: Payment is only 20% with balance at time of occupancy around end of 2013.
Parking: $45,000. Locker: $5,000.
/see: http://toronto.canadianlisted.com/houses/chaz-on-charles-latest-news-vip_310840.html
= =
Parking $47,500 / Locker $5,000
Available only for 1Bed+D or larger

====
$5,000 on Signing
Balance of 5% in 30 days
5% in 120 days
5% in 210 days
5% in 300 days
5% on Occupancy
June 7, 2013
49 cents/sq. ft.
Includes Building Insurance & Amenities
Taxes: Est. 1%
====
Included In Purchase Price: H.S.T. and Six Appliances, Please speak to a Sales Representative for Details
*As per plan from Vendor’s Samples. Please see a Sales Representative for details.
Prices are subject to change without notice E. & O.E


SALES OFFICE HOURS: Monday to Thursday 12 – 6 p.m.
http://www.CHAZONCHARLES.COM
VIP Agent: SUNNY BATRA / www.SunnyBatra.com / Sunny@sunnybatra.com

74536_2.jpg
=====
June 9th, 2011
??
Tower Suites : Type : SF : Exp : Suite---- : Starting- : PerSF : To 40fl.
CABANA : 1BR : 510 : NW : -8th Floor : $389,900 : $764.5 : +32/2%: $886.8
DIVA------ : 1BR : 516 : N- : 36th Floor : $395,900 : $767.2 : +04/2%: $782.5
FRINGE-- : 1+St : 580 : E- : - 8th Floor : $489,900 : $844.7 : +32/2%: $979.9
DECO---- : 1+St : 592 : NW : -8th Floor : $419,900 : $709.3 : +32/2%: $822.8
LAVISH--- : 1+D : 678 : NE : -8th Floor : $469,900 : $693.1 : +32/2%: $804.0
TONIK---- : 1+D : 718 : NE : 18th Floor : $463,900 : $646.1 : +22/2%: $717.2
RIVA----- : 2BR : 718 : SW : -8th Floor : $539,900 : $751.9 : +32/2%: $872.2
SARTI---- : 1+D : 757 : SW : 18th Floor : $502,900 : $664.3 : +22/2%: $737.4
LAMARO : 1+D : 757 : SE : 18th Floor : $504,900 : $667.0 : +22/2%: $740.4
SYRAH--- : 2BR : 797 : SE : -7th Floor : $569,900 : $715.1 : +33/2%: $833.1
=======
$833.1 x 797 = $663,974 / Est. 40/Fl Syrah :

http://www.sunnybatra.com/images/11555/Chaz/VIP-Boker-pricelist-June-9th.pdf

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Yonge Bloor Condo CHAZ - Good Buy? Or Terrible Investment? / Feb. 2011

 

I have an opportunity to purchase a condo at Yonge and Bloor area (CHAZ). The purchase price is $332000, to be built a couple years later. They somehow guaranty that, for the first year they'll give you a rental guaranty of $3.5/sqft per month ($1800 for this unit). If you had enough to put down for the down payment would you buy it? Because it's in a good area? Would you speculate that it might somehow go up in price in the next 2 years? Or would you ward off the purchase because of fear of the "might be" real estate crash?

 

(2)

332k for 514 SF ($646 psf) is a terrible investment. Personally, I find Yonge/Bloor obnoxious.

For that money you can get quite a nice condo on Queens Quay.

 

(3)

I am always amazed at the prices people pay for condos or apartments in large cities. I'll keep my $160,000 house along a waterway with no neighbours, 3 acres and 5 bedrooms.

Niagra Falls

 

(4)

Compare the price per square foot to comparable buildings in the area. Preconstruction condos seem to be highly overpriced right now in comparison to resales, particularly when you add in the risk factors and additional expenses associated with precon.

 

In my opinion, preconstruction condos are a bad investment right now.

 

/source: http://forums.redflagdeals.com/yonge-bloor-condo-chaz-good-buy-terrible-investment-1000649/

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urbantoronto-4246-12742.jpg

 

Chaz's form features diagonals that are 45° from Charles Street's east-west length. The angles are an hommage to the Macy Dubois-designed building which Chaz is replacing, while at the same time they provide views in multiple directions from many of the tower's units. Second to those angled façades, the building's most prominent feature will be its Chaz Club, perched 36 and 37 storeys in the air, and providing amazing views of the city's core.

 

Rendering of Chaz from the southwest featuring the Chaz Club in the sky

 

View from the Chaz Club, perched 36 floors in the sky, rendering courtesy 45 Charles Ltd and Edenshaw Homes

 

Chaz has recently applied to increase its total height from 39 to 47 storeys. UrbanToronto will keep you updated this development, and throughout the project's construction.

 

/see: http://urbantoronto.ca/news/2011/12/chaz-goes-yorkville-work-gets-underway-45-charles

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This is an article from Simon Black's newsletter.

 

Retiring in Canada - May 2010

 

If you're shopping around for a tier 1, first world second citizenship, you might find a solution in Canada (unless of course you're a native Canadian).

 

In my view, Canada offers two key advantages. First, a Canadian passport is an incredibly valuable travel document-- Canadians are generally greeted around the world without stigma or significant visa requirements.

 

Second, Canada has a very reasonable tax scheme for non-resident citizens who sever their resident ties to the country... usually by selling their home and moving to another country with all family and dependents. In this case, a non-resident Canadian is only subject to taxes on income sourced from within Canada.

 

As a Canadian citizen, you could live in a place like Panama or the Bahamas and never pay taxes ever again... but still have visa-free travel around the world, including to the European Union and the United States.

 

... there are drawbacks to being Canadian.

 

First of all, taxes for resident Canadians are a real bear. You can easily pay north of 40% of your income to the government

 

/more: http://retirementdetectives.com/canada/111-fast-facts/264-retiring-in-canada.html

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CONDO OPINIONS - thru Flora

=====

 

(1)

I asked 3 person for their comments.

Johnny is my brother in law, he has lived in Toronto for over 35 years and hv condo themselves.

 

JUN 6, 2012 HI FLORA, IT IS IN THE BAY/BLOOR AREA AND IS CONSIDER THE YORKVILLE AREA. IT MAY NOT BE THE MOST EXPENSIVE BUT THE PRICE IS HIGH FOR A CONDO LIKE THIS IN DOWNDOWN WHICH COST ABOUT C$600/SQ FT. FYI, IT IS ABOUT HUNDREDS OF NEW CONDO (not unit) TO BE FINISHED THE NEXT FEW YEARS IN DOWNTOWN AREA. NOT SURE IF WE HAVE SO MANY PEOPLE LIVE THERE. THIS IS ON TOP OF THOSE COMPLETED AND TRY TO RENT IT OUT TO COVER THE EXPENSES BY THOSE PEOPLE TRY TO MAKE A QUICK RETURN BUT FAIL.

 

TAKE GOOD CARE JOHNNY / Johnny Lam <jeaneric@sympatico.ca>

 

(2)

( Stephen is Danny's brother and they hv been in Toronto at diff stages for over 10 years.

B. Rgds, Flora )

 

The real estate in Toronto is very hot and it seems that the market is cooling down, especially for condo. Bank of Canada asked the financial institutions to tighten the mortgage lending to the cond. market. because the market is overheated and very speculated.

 

blessings, Stephen Chau

Rejuveno Worldwide Ltd.chaustephen@yahoo.comwww.rejuveno.com 647-209-7590

 

(3)

This is the last opinion we can collect. Vincent is a friend of ours and has been living in Toronto over 20+ years. He has a real estate licence. Hope these comments can shade some light on the outlook of condo market at downtown Toronto and can be useful to you and Caroline.

 

From Vincent Zao

====

I really don't know how to response to your email. I have be thinking anout this for the past 24 hours. First let me be honest with you, I am a very conservative person. I don't gamble at all. Below are my personal opinions, you should only use it as a reference:

 

1. They claim it is in yorkville area. Yorkville is actually at the North West corner of Bay and Bloor and they are located at South East corner of Yonge and Bloor.

2. In downtown core (South of Bloor), West side of Yonge is always better than East of Yonge. I know they are trying to clean up the area but I am not sure about whether they are able to do that.

3. In your second video, Jonathan mentioned that the current condo price in downtown Toronto is around $660 and he said it may go up to $800 in the future and $630,000 for 800, you are paying the projected price now. I am not sure whether it may hit that mark in the future.

4. Depends on whether it is for investment or self use. If it is for investment, based on 25% down payment, you are taking a $475,000 mortgage and your monthly payment with property tax and management fee will be over $3,000. I don't think you will make money on it. If it is for self use then you should consider whether you will enjoy the downtown life style and the size 800, it is not big in Canadian standard.

 

Well, so much on the negative side, here is the positive side.

 

1. A lot of people compare Toronto with either New York or Vacouver. If you look at that, Toronto is still much more cheaper than those 2 cities.

2. Canada is still a very safe and stable country and there are a lot of foreign money pouring in (from China, Middle East and Korea as well). The current Real Estate market is mainly supported by those investors. Local people just cannot affort the price. The average salary in Toronto is still around $40,000 - $60,000.

3. The closing of the property will be in 2016. It is 4 years away from now. No body can tell what will happen in 4 years time.

 

I think, that's all I would like to say. Good luck.

 

Vincent / Vincent Zao <vzao@rogers.com>

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Toronto braces for a deflating condo bubble

 

Mon Jun 11, 2012

 

* Players in condo market deny bubble, but admit worries

 

* Building boom continues, though softening seen

 

* Tighter financing reassures some

 

By Andrea Hopkins

 

TORONTO, June 11 (Reuters) - Each panelist at a recent Toronto real estate conference had a reason why the city's condo market is not a bubble. But the developers, the lender, the receiver, the marketer and the real estate agent each talked about the things that worry them.

 

"Everyone is uncertain about what is going to happen in the condo market in the next few years," said Steve Gagro, a senior manager at Laurentian Bank of Canada who specializes in lending to real estate developers.

 

With 325 condominium projects on the market and another 173 towers under construction, Toronto's skyline is spiking with condo units and cranes, with more new buildings underway than in any other city in North America.

 

The building boom and 15 years of rising prices have stirred worries about a real estate bubble in Canada's largest city, where historically low interest rates have encouraged buyers to take on more household debt than ever.

 

Industry stakeholders stress that the potential for a crash is slight, and most of the talk at the Queen's University seminar was about the strengths of the market.

 

But as construction cranes swiveled outside the windows, the discussion repeatedly circled round to the danger signals that have become impossible to ignore, similar to pilots explaining why they are packing parachutes to take onboard. The developers talked about tighter financing and affordability. The real estate agent wondered about a growing gap between new condos and the resale market. The bankruptcy specialist worried about high supply and few players. The salesman talked about skittish investors and bad press.

 

While it sounds like Canada may be importing the 2008 housing bubble from its neighbors to the south, nearly everyone in the industry argues that Canada is different.

 

It did not suffer the financial crisis the rest of the world did in 2009, mortgage interest is not tax deductible as in the United States, mortgages are not repackaged and resold among lenders, and there is very little subprime market.

 

The market, too, is different.

 

"Demographics does an awful lot to support this condo market," said Jim Ritchie, head of sales and marketing at Tridel Corp, one of Toronto's largest condo developers.

 

Toronto, with an area population of 5.8 million, accepts about 100,000 new immigrants every year. The bulk of them are from countries where dense urban living is common, and a hard-to-determine number of foreign buyers are helping to prop up the market.

 

Efforts to encircle the city with a green belt of undeveloped land has limited some of the sprawl, creating a virtual island that mimics pricey real estate centers like Manhattan, Hong Kong and Singapore.

 

Mortgage rates that start at 2.4 percent and don't rise beyond 6.75 percent have boosted affordability, especially compared with pricier single-family homes. The average condo price is C$368,000 (US$378,000) less than half the C$821,000 (US$844,000) it costs to buy a house.

 

But even developers who say there is no bubble speculate publicly about what will happen when the boom starts to cool, and everyone appears braced for bad.

 

"Condominium development is good, it's part of our business," said Ben Rogowski, executive vice president of developer Canderel Group. "If a year from now it is not good, we have lots of other skill sets and we will focus on a different part of the business until we feel that it is there again."

 

Canderel is focused on inner Toronto and has no plans to change.

 

"I think we will continue to focus on downtown, because when things do change, they probably will fall from the outside in. In our opinion ... the margins will still be ... downtown," Rogowski said.

 

 

LENDERS ON A LEASH

 

There is little question that concern about the Canadian housing market is making its way from the corridors of power in Ottawa to the big banks, which hold the purse strings for both developers and home buyers.

 

"I believe the uncertainty (about the condo market) is increasing potential risk associated with lending," said Laurentian Bank's Gagro.

 

A banker who specializes in lending money to real estate developers, Gagro said Canada's banking regulator, the Office of the Superintendent of Financial Services, has been making the rounds of Canada's big banks to make sure they are not making bad loans that will bring the industry closer to a bust.

 

"Over the last little while OSFI has come in and shaken the chain a little bit with respect to condo exposures, so everyone is a little more cognizant of who they are dealing with and how they are structuring the deals," said Gagno. He noted that developers must typically sell at least 80 percent of units in a project before construction can begin.

 

"Banks are going to be selective about who they are dealing with ... how deep their pockets are, their ability to respond to financial obligations, a demonstrated track record and being able to bring projects to market," he said.

 

The tighter financing reassures Ray Drost, senior vice president and partner at Ernst & Young Real Estate Services, the team called in when bankruptcy threatens a developer or a project and restructuring must be done.

 

"Our restructuring practice is probably the largest in Canada and I can tell you we've been called on one project in the last 36 months - one," he said.

 

Drost says a huge pipeline of supply is one concern, but believes the big players will weather a cooling in the market.

 

"I think it will slow down but I don't know if we're going to see a lot of failures, frankly," he said, noting he has lived through several corrections and knows the signs.

 

"I think probably the ones you will see or hear about are smaller developers who haven't managed their marketing well, that have maybe cut corners where they shouldn't have, and have not really matched up the project to the target market."

 

A final concern is whether projects are being rushed to market before interest rates rise or consumer confidence retreats. New starts of urban Canadian condo projects dropped 21 percent in May, nearly reversing a 27 percent increase the previous month, and remain well above historical averages, the Canada Mortgage and Housing Corp said on Fr ida y.

 

But the threat of higher interest rates has been raised so often and for so long that no one is sure how much attention to pay to the risk of slightly higher borrowing costs in 2013 or 2014.

 

Tridel's Ritchie sees mixed signs, with investors looking to flip condos or rent them out more worried than younger buyers who cannot believe Toronto real estate will ever be a losing bet.

 

"We have a lot of people in our buyer profile who have never experienced anything but an up market - so they keep coming back to the trough, so to speak," Ritchie said. "But it doesn't always work that way."

 

C$1=$1.0280

 

/source: http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/06/11/canada-condos-bubble-idUSL1E8H7DSP20120611

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Caviar condos set to flood Toronto market

 

torflat.jpg

 

(Reuters) - Five months after buying one of Toronto's new luxury hotel condominiums, Oliver Baumeister is girding for a glut of suites like his to hit the market as the biggest names in the hotel business open hundreds of units in Canada's largest city.

 

Baumeister, himself a real estate agent, is in no rush to sell. When Toronto's untested market for five-star condo living absorbs the surplus - say by 2016 - he intends to offload his sky-high unit for a tidy 20 percent profit, and look for his next Canadian real estate investment.

 

"A bunch of it will sit for a while and it will take time to sell," said Baumeister, who has been buying Toronto condominiums with his brother for the past four years.

 

"But we bought it with the belief that the Toronto hotel condo market definitely has a future. When we sell, hopefully ... we'll see about a 20 percent profit."

 

The model of ultra-fine condos attached to luxury hotels isn't new - cities like Hong Kong and New York are full of them.

 

But Toronto, a relatively small city with no five-star hotel condominiums a year ago, is coming to the game late but with a vengeance.

 

By the end of this summer Toronto will have four such projects, as Four Seasons, Ritz Carlton, Trump and Shangri-La open massive towers in a city where a red-hot market for all types of housing has brought rising concern about a real estate bubble.

 

The granite-and-glass towers, including two of Canada's tallest residential buildings, are opening in quick succession, adding hundreds of hotel rooms and more than a thousand condominiums just as Canadian housing hype hits a fever pitch.

 

Signs of success are mixed. None of the four projects, whose condos cost from just under C$1 million to C$28 million, has sold out, and the push by developers to sell their remaining units before a resale market kicks in has the feel of a ticking time bomb.

. . .

Trump, on the other hand, is trying to sell all its hotel rooms to private investors as condos. Owners can live in the suites, or put the rooms into a rental pool and take a cut of income from the hotel guests staying there.

 

The business structure means buyers of the pooled hotel condo units are subject to commercial tax rates rather than lower residential rates, and the bar for financing is higher.

 

"I called every major lender regarding Trump, and the only one I could find that was willing to finance was HSBC," said Callum Ross mortgage consultant Jason Friesen.

 

"There were some units that had C$20,000 (annual) property taxes for an C$800,000, or 1,500 square foot, unit because it was zoned commercial. So lenders wouldn't touch it."

 

Real estate lawyer Bob Aaron, who represents "a handful" of disgruntled Trump buyers, said some are trying to get out of their contract or walking away from C$250,000 down payments.

 

"The monthly costs are too high, or they realized too late that they had overpaid, or can't finance it, or didn't realize they were getting into a business venture superimposed on property ownership," he said.

. . .

The Ritz Carlton, open since mid-2011, is a cautionary tale of the risk of resale. More than 90 percent of its 159 units have been sold - but nearly two dozen are back on the resale market, diluting the sales power of the developer.

 

"I think the values have been hurt at the Ritz, where you've had some powers of sale," said real estate agent Brian Persaud, referring to forced sales due to mortgage default. "That's going to harm the value, definitely."

 

As the summer openings of the three other projects approach, developers and investors seem to have one eye on the clock and one eye on historically low interest rates, desperate to sell before the talk of a bursting Toronto condo bubble comes true.

 

"There has to be a correction - but hopefully not within a year .... it is scary," said a Toronto banker who bought one of the Shangri-La luxury units in 2007 and hopes to resell at a 15 percent profit as soon as he can.

 

/more: http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/05/14/uk-canada-condos-idUSLNE84D01820120514

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How high is Toronto from sea level?

Toronto is located approximately 173 metres or 567 feet above sea level.

At its lowest point, along the waterfront, Toronto is 76.5 meters above sea level. At its highest point, it's 209 metres above sea level.

 

http://www.toronto.ca/toronto_facts/geography.htm

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Toronto Condo Sales Drop Off Sharply, After Months of Warnings

 

Sales fell 18% in the month from the year-earlier period, according to data released this week.

 

The drop comes as Mr. Flaherty, economists and analysts have all piled on in recent months warning of a possible bubble amid a blistering salvo of new condo tower construction in recent years.

 

Here’s the break down:

June sales of condos in Toronto, Canada’s largest city, dropped 18%, to 1,996 units, from last June, the Toronto Real Estate Board said. Prices of condo units advanced 2%, to an average 342,044 Canadian dollars ($337,188). Sales of detached, single-family homes rose 7%.

 

Overall, total home sales in Toronto–with a metropolitan population of 5.8 million–declined 5.4% in the month of June from the same year-ago period.

 

/more: http://blogs.wsj.com/canadarealtime/2012/07/06/toronto-condo-sales-drop-off-sharply-after-months-of-warnings/?mod=google_news_blog

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Toronto new condo prices fall 6 per cent in June

 

TARA PERKINS .. The Globe and Mail

 

Published Tuesday, Jul. 24 2012

 

The average price of newly-constructed condos in the Greater Toronto Area fell by 6 per cent in June from a year ago, to $432,256, according to RealNet Canada Inc.

 

In the same period the price of brand new low-rise homes rose 10 per cent to $603,102.

 

Sales of new homes and condominiums totaled 3,461 in June, down 27 per cent from 2011, which had been a record year.

 

Despite the drop, new condo sales so far this year are still 38-per-cent higher than the long-term average, and this year is on course to be the second-highest level, stated Bryan Tuckey, the CEO of BILD, which represents developers and builders. Meanwhile, low-rise sales are 27 per cent below the long term average and June’s sales of low-rise homes were the lowest on record for that month.

 

/see: http://www.theglobeandmail.com/report-on-business/economy/housing/toronto-new-condo-prices-fall-6-per-cent-in-june/article4437314/

 

=== ===

 

 

More Related to this Story

No Toronto condo bubble, RBC says :

===

There is no bubble in Toronto’s condo market, says the economics department of Royal Bank of Canada, the country’s largest bank and biggest mortgage lender.

 

And worries about the market are largely overdone, senior economist Robert Hogue says in a report to be released Tuesday.

 

He argues that the market does not pose as much risk as many people, including top policy makers in Ottawa, think it does.

 

For one thing, he believes that record sales for new condos are picking up the slack that exists because fewer single-family homes are being built. Government actions aimed at curbing urban sprawl are restricting builders’ ability to create new homes and so to meet the demand from the roughly 38,000 net new households in the Greater Toronto Area each year, builders must build upwards, Mr. Hogue says.

 

“Based on market activity to date, the total number of new housing units (condos, single-family homes, and others) completed by builders has not exceeded the GTA’s demographic requirements and is unlikely to do so by any significant magnitude in the next few years,” the report says.

. . .

Mr. Flaherty’s fears about overpriced real estate, and condo markets in particular, prompted him to surprise the market last month with new mortgage insurance rules that aim to take some of the wind out of the market’s sails. He’s trying to engineer a gradual slowdown of the market, fearing that otherwise it could crash at some point.

 

Mr. Hogue’s lack of concern about a bubble does not mean he thinks the market will boom, however. He expects condo prices to fall by perhaps 2 per cent to 7 per cent from their peak. He predicts that a two-tiered market could emerge, with condo prices softening while the market for single-family homes is resilient.

 

/more: http://www.theglobeandmail.com/report-on-business/economy/housing/no-toronto-condo-bubble-rbc-says/article4436774/

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DISCUSSION on Toronto Property

========

(1)

I think that Toronto might become a two-tiered market with a resilient single-family home segment and a condo market that will face headwinds. I see some downward force on condo prices emerging next year or in 2014 when a lot of new condos under construction will be completed.

 

by Robert Hogue July 17 at 8:16 AM

 

(2)

How could this decline affect first time buyers looking to get into the housing market?

(by Andrew)

 

It might help improve affordability somewhat, although we're expecting a rise in interest rates starting early next year, which will work in the other direction.

 

(3)

What percentage drop should we be expecting to see in the condo and family home market? and how long do you expect this cooling period

to last?

(by AverageJoe)

 

I wouldn't be surprised to see an easing in the 2-7% range once interest rates start rising but it will depend on the state of the economy, the rate at which new condos are completed and, more generally, consumer confidence.

 

by Robert Hogue July 17 at 8:24 AM

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/report-on-business/economy/housing/is-canadas-housing-market-finally-starting-to-cool/article4420261/

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According to recent analysis by the Economist, Canadian house prices are overvalued by 32 per cent relative to income , and by 76 per cent relative to rents, for an overall average overvaluation of 54 per cent compared with long-term averages . A home for sale on Dale Ave. in the Rosedale neighbourhood in Toronto on June 21 2012. Federal Minister of Finance Jim Flaherty confirmed that Ottawa will reduce the maximum amortization period to 25 years from 30 years.

(Fred Lum/The Globe and Mail)

 

/see: http://www.theglobeandmail.com/globe-investor/housing-bubbles-messy-and-unpredictable/article4399058/

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Carney may be Getting out of the BofC "in the Nicholas of Time" - House prices look "toppy" in Canada

 

canhseprice.jpg

 

/source: http://blog.besthome...te-besthomesbc/

 

In the Hard talk interview he said:

"We will not have a banking crisis in Canada as a result of falling house prices. We have an insurance scheme, and if prices fall, the problem is quickly spread to the government, which has a stronger balance sheet,"

 

Might we see this supposed "solution" picked up in the UK - Then maybe a government debt crisis induced by a drop in London house prices will be in the cards

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UPDATE 1-Canadian house prices fall 0.2 pct in Oct. from Sept.

 

Wed Nov 21, 2012

* Prices down on month, year-over-year gains slowing

 

housing_pmn2.jpg

 

TORONTO, Nov 21 (Reuters) - Canadian home prices dipped in October from September and year-over-year price gains slowed for the 11th straight month in yet another sign Canada's hot housing market has cooled, the Teranet-National Bank Composite House Price Index showed on Wednesday.

The index, which measures price changes for repeat sales of single-family homes, showed overall prices fell 0.2 percent in October from a month earlier, only the third October drop in 13 years of data.

"Today's report provides additional evidence that macroprudential regulations are helping to slow housing demand and is consistent with last week's existing-home sales report," Mazen Issa, Canada Macro Strategist at TD Securities said in a research note.

 

With further moderation in the housing market expected into the end of the year and into 2013, Issa said the pressure for hawkish monetary policy continues to ease.

"With tighter mortgage regulations proving to be effective thus far, the Bank of Canada will have slightly more breathing room to stay on the sidelines and observe how key global events unfold in the very near-term," he wrote.

The long run-up in Canadian house prices and low supply in some markets had sparked concern a housing bubble was forming. The federal government has tightened mortgage lending rules four times in four years to try to prevent borrowers from taking on too much debt to buy into the market.

Those tighter lending rules have been offset by historically low interest rates, which are expected to stay low into 2013.

 

The report showed prices were down on the month in seven of 11 urban markets surveyed. Prices fell 0.9 percent in Quebec City, 0.6 percent in Victoria and Toronto, 0.4 percent in Ottawa, 0.3 percent in Montreal, 0.2 percent in Calgary and 0.1 percent in Halifax.

Prices were up 0.1 percent in Vancouver, 0.3 percent in Edmonton and 0.4 percent in Hamilton. Prices were flat in October from September in Winnipeg.

===

/more: http://www.reuters.c...E8ML1HC20121121

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Condo prices in Toronto have finally stopped climbing.

After months of weakness in sales numbers, prices are now coming down in what some observers are calling the most overbuilt condo market in North America.

The Toronto Real Estate Board (TREB) reported Tuesday that condo sales fell 20.5 per cent, year on year, compared to the first half of October, 2011. And prices have halted their long-running upward momentum; the average condo in the Toronto area sold for $332,969, down about $1,200 from the same period last year.

===

/more: http://www.huffingto..._n_1970625.html

=== ===

 

 

 

Toronto condo projects on hold as sales plunge

 

Garry Marr | Nov 1, 2012

 

Just five projects launched in Toronto in Q3-2012, as developers choose to review their pricing assumptions and unit mix

 

Even Toronto condo king Brad Lamb, long a strong advocate of the high-rise sector, sees the writing on the wall.

 

He doesn’t think any sort of catastrophe is in the making but concedes builders have woken up to a new reality in the city when it comes to constructing new towers.

 

“Here’s what’s happening: Projects under construction are well sold and going ahead, there’s no issue. But projects waiting to get their [sales] numbers to start construction are slightly delayed as they get the units they have to [sell] to get going. We are selling but at a slower pace,” said Mr. Lamb, a broker in the city who is also developer.

 

His observations come as new data from condominium research firm Urbanation Inc. show there were 3,317 condominium apartment sales in the third quarter, a 30% drop from just a quarter earlier. The research firm says developers started putting off new buildings after unsold inventory hit a record high in the second quarter.

===

/more: http://business.fina...s-sales-plunge/

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Very interesting. I was there in the summer and couldn't believe how hot the property market was. I felt a blow-off top was near.

 

Very dear houses selling within a day or two of being put on the market. It was hot!

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Toronto Condos Cool

 

Sales Drop and Prices Ease as Once-Hot Market Shows Strains

 

TORONTO—The once red-hot condominium market here is suddenly teetering, as sales plummet and prices ease.

 

MI-BU113_TORONT_D_20130212155757.jpg

 

The downdraft is threatening a boom that has transformed the skyline of Canada's largest city and come to symbolize the country's economic outperformance in recent years. As real-estate markets crashed in the U.S. and elsewhere amid the global financial and economic crisis, Canadian home prices quickly bounced back and then took off on a multiyear tear.

 

Canadians across the country leapt in amid superlow interest rates, while local and foreign buyers snapped up condos in Toronto and Vancouver, in particular. Units in those two markets are now some of the priciest in North America.

== ==

 

Bulletpoints:

+ About 150 high-rises are going up in Toronto, more anywhere else in North America, and twice the number as NYC

+ New developments will account for 56,866 (+25%), added onto 227,700 units already existing

+ Condo prices rose +119% from early 2000, and then fell 1% in Q4-2012

+ Sales are down 23% from the previous years 4th-Qtr, suggesting that buyers are not prepared to pay the high prices that developers are still asking. (Across Canada, sales were only down 10.5%)

+ Average price of a Toronto condo is C$318,542

+ The govt has claimed some credit for slowing sales

+ "Reality is going to set in over the next few months," says a Toronto based realtor, with Re/max

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A Calgary Crash

 

In September we profiled the expected collapse of the Calgary commercial real estate market when we reported that in Alberta Canada now has 1.7 million square feet of empty office space, the most in North America, with another 5.2 million under construction! After years of booming construction, the natural resource rich country is starting to feel the pinch.

Overnight Bloomberg followed up on this stunning deterioration when it, too, reported that "office-tower owners in Canada’s energy hub are about to feel the full force of the oil-price crash."

 

Using data from real estate brokers including Jones Lang LaSalle Inc. and Avison Young, Bloomberg calculates that vacancy is already at a five-year high in Calgary and rents are the lowest since 2006 after thousands of office jobs were cut. Energy company tenants have now begun to ask for rental relief and are offering subleases for as little as half the going rate.

The backlog is even worse: five new office towers with about 3.8 million square feet (353,031 square meters) of space hits the market in the next three years.

 

End result: if one ignores shadow vacancy rates, it is "only" as bad as 2010. If one adds shadow vacancy, or space leased but sitting empty, the rate jumps to 16%, the highest since the mid-1980s.

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Vancouver Property in a Bubble... because of its value to the Chinese
Canada-Vancouver_zpslwq25lma.png

 

Buying a home in the US or Canada has been an effective way for foreign residents to launder some money and get their wealth out of harm’s way. In the trophy markets on the US West Coast and in the Canadian cities of Vancouver and Toronto, rumors of a massive influx of Chinese money have swirled with growing intensity for years.

The Chinese economic elite are worried about a devaluation of the yuan. They’re worried about getting rolled up by their own government. They’re worried about markets collapsing. They’re worried about pollution. They’re worried about a million things. They have one foot out the door. If push comes to shove, they’re ready to make the move.

So capital flight from China has turned into a tsunami. And this money has to go somewhere.

The meme is this: These desperate buyers prefer a higher price because it’s more efficient for them to get their money out. This pumps up prices. Which impresses other Chinese investors, and they flock in ever greater numbers to those markets. American-Chinese businesses have sprung up to cater to them with special packages that take care of everything, including travel arrangements.

The real estate industry, benefiting from higher prices and higher unit sales, has largely downplayed this trend. Realtors and sellers love moneyed buyers and are not inclined to ask too many questions.

 

http://wolfstreet.com/2016/03/24/chinese-buyers-invade-vancouvers-housing-market-study/

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15% tax has bust the Property Bubble in Vancouver

 

When a week ago we reported that in a long-overdue decision, the British Columbia government finally cracked down on Vancouver's unprecedented "Chinese hot money" driven housing bubble by implementing a 15% property tax (which we had advocated for one month earlier), we said that "with today's tax, Vancouver's real estate nightmare in which local housing had become the "new normal" anonymous Swiss bank account, and also made real estate virtually unaffordable to local, hard working Canadians, is finally set to end."

However, not even we were confident that a 15% tax would be "prove to be a sufficient deterrent to future Chinese buyers." Now thanks to the Financial Post we now know that not only was the tax sufficient, but it has led to the prompt, much anticipated, and generally welcome bursting of the Vancouver housing bubble.

As FP writes, on Thursday and Friday of last week, realtors and lawyers were desperate to get in under the tax hike deadline, and filed a record-setting 15,000 property transfer applications on the last two business days before B.C.’s punishing new 15-per-cent tax on foreign property buyers went into effect. As a result, more than 9,200 transactions were filed on Friday, breaking the 2007-2008 record of more than 8,400 in a single day, according to the B.C. Land Title and Survey Authority. It also reported over 5,800 transactions on Thursday, representing nearly as many deals registered at month’s end in April.

The demand was so heavy that it crashed the land titles office’s electronic filing service on both days, the authority said.

That was last week. What about now that the tax is in place? As a new dawn breaks in Metro Vancouver’s real estate market, realty companies and real estate boards are reporting the first anecdotes of deals falling through as foreign buyers forfeited deposits on binding deals rather than pay the new tax.

= =

> more: http://hongkong.asiaxpat.com/forums/hong-kong-property-finance/threads/37159e4d-f280-4523-9c24-84a7be3af63b/vancouver-property-bubble-is-bursting/

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Vancouver Housing Bubble, Meet Pin

The short sellers are coming: “a money-laundering-induced market.”

The Canadian province of British Columbia may have gotten what it asked for in instituting the now notorious 15% transfer tax on home purchases involving foreign investors.

Benchmark prices of Vancouver still exhibit astounding year-over-year increases, with apartment prices up 27% and detached house prices up 38%, now at C$$1,578,300. But overall sales plunged to 3,226 homes, down 27% from the record in June and down 19% from a year ago.

“This is the first time since January 2016 that home sales in the region have registered below 4,000 in a month,” admits the Real Estate Board of Greater Vancouver. While apartment sales dropped “only” 7% year-over-year, sales of detached homes plummeted 31%!

And it’s spreading beyond Vancouver. For example, housing-refugees make their way to the Fraser Valley, which borders Metro Vancouver. The formerly bucolic and more affordable Langley Township is now highly developed and getting more so.

Who else is taking more than a casual look at BC’s real estate phenomena? Legendary billion dollar hedge fund manager Mark Cohodes, now retired from his career as a successful Wall Street short seller.

“I think it’s a money laundering-induced market,” said Cohodes in his scathing indictment of the status quo. “Where the local politicians, or the BC Liberals, are kept or in cahoots with the real estate brokers, developers, lawyers, that angle. And they have sought Chinese money to keep the market propped up and it won’t last,” he said.

“China has capital controls on, and Vancouver has become the money laundering mecca of either the world or North America and something is going to change and change drastically.”


More http://wolfstreet.com/2016/08/03/vancouver-housing-bubble-bc-15-percent-transfer-tax-foreign-buyers/

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Many folks who closely follow the market think this new tax won’t matter one bit.

There are several reasons why. The first is an additional 15% tax doesn’t mean much to a millionaire who just cares about getting capital out of China. For these people, capital appreciation is just a bonus. The important part is owning assets in a stable economy like Canada’s.

Secondly, much of the cash used to buy properties is funneled through relatives and friends who are already in Canada. Foreign ownership rules don’t apply to immigrants who are already permanent residents or citizens.

And finally, Vancouver has a long way to go to be affordable. The average price of a detached house is well over $1 million, while median family income is less than $80,000. Vancouver would have to experience an epic crash for the market to be deemed affordable.

http://www.baystreet.ca/articles/baystreetschool.aspx?id=381

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