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drbubb

DrBubb's Trading Diary - JUNE 2012 - v.42

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This morning's gap action was an obvious possible rally top in an overall longer correction. We haven't seen the bottom yet, it remains to be seen if the US is following other markets into an official bear market.

 

 

Sold short into it.. now nicely in profit, but I will let it run as pat of my long gold/short SPX strategy.

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BOT some AGQ July$39 Calls at $4.10, when AGQ opened lower today

 

I sold out UGL June Calls last week around breakeven and think AGQ is a much better buy

 

These are both 2X geared plays, and I am showing a preference for Silver over Gold

=== ===

 

I have been looking to Buy AGQ calls when AGQ was at 50% of less of UGL

 

agqtougl.png

 

I also added some more TZA calls

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THE MAIN REASON European stocks had a bad day yeaterday

 

Spain: 10 year Bond yields ... update

 

53076746.png

 

Greece's elections didn't "fix" anything.

The bank runs continue...

 

Spanish Yields -7.26% ...

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/five-days-spanish-bailout-you-are-here

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(WARNING - for folks in Hong Kong):

 

COMPARISON:

High Point Village, in Hayes, Middlesex - vs- "Prime London"

 

I do believe that there is less downside and greater potential percentage returns in the first versus the second.

 

Here, I am comparing the development described below with 375 High Street Kensington (at GBP 1500 psf), which the property agents have called "Prime Central London", but it isn't. The really funny thing is the so-called Central London location on the edge of Hammersmith, will be less convenient in some respects than the Hayes property, assuming we can believe the advertised transport times, which are:

Heathrow : 6 mins

Paddington : 17 mins

West End : 37 mins

The City : 47 mins

(Note: It could easily take 1 hour to get from 375 Ken.High St to bank)

 

I don't necessarily believe the advertised times (they are often inaccurate), but this comparison does show the importance of actual transport links, rather than "brand name addresses" like Kensington High Street.

 

High Point Village... : MasterPlan

"is situated within the fast-emerging business hub of Hayes. And seamless transport links mean it is equally well-connected to Heathrow Airport, some of the most prosperous business areas, the M4 corridor and Central London. Heathrow Airport is only six minutes away. Hi-tech business parks surround High Point Village. The West End is just over 30 minutes. And with Crossrail being just seconds away, the West End and the city will become even closer."

 

/link: http://www.highpointvillage.co.uk/location

 

It will be interesting to see what price per sf they are asking for the Highpoint property. The advert does mention: a "projected return of 6.8% pa Gross Yield"

 

/source: http://hongkong.asiaxpat.com/forums/hong-kong-property/threads/146664/avoiding-the-london-sucker-punch/

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I used to live close to the Highpoint development.

Transport wise, although it is a nice location, it is quite far for any tube lines.

£1500psf is outrageous. Better to look at the old Victorian conversions around Earls Court - better location, vfm, and closer to the tube.

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I used to live close to the Highpoint development.

Transport wise, although it is a nice location, it is quite far for any tube lines.

£1500psf is outrageous. Better to look at the old Victorian conversions around Earls Court - better location, vfm, and closer to the tube.

"£1500psf is outrageous".

Agreed.

To be clear, that is for 375 High Street Kensington, a different address.

 

I am expecting the Hillingdom property to be under £400psf

 

And there is meant to be a new Crossrail station going in nearby

=== ===

 

I think this is an interesting comparison to track,

so I have started a new thread on it:

http://www.greenenergyinvestors.com/index.php?showtopic=16525

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FTSE is Ready to Roll... Rollover that is

 

UKX / FTSE 100 Index GBP (INDEX) ... update : 3mos

 

23242951.png

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VGM.L down 16% today

 

Poor results

 

http://www.proactiveinvestors.co.uk/columns/fox-davies-capital/9671/vatukoula-gold-mines-uranium-resources-connemara-mining-san-leon-energy-and-others-feature-in-fox-davies-newsflash-9671.html

Vatukoula Gold Mines PLC (LON:VGM) announced its unaudited preliminary results from its Vatukoula Gold Mine in Fiji for the third quarter ended 31 May 2012. The company mined 114703 tonnes and processed 114091 tonnes of ore at an average grade of 3.55 g/t Au to produce 11390 ounces for the quarter. This is down considerably from the 14315 ounces produce in the previous quarter and 15 684 in the quarter before that. Cash costs for the quarter were US$2034, up from US$1426 in the previous quarter. However the company expects to achieve the previously guided cash costs of approximately US$1,400 per ounce for the remainder of the fiscal year. EBITDA for the year to date is £293000. The company held cash and cash equivalents of £6.58 M at the end of the reporting period.

 

Can’t quote your post from last month-

 

http://www.greenenergyinvestors.com/index.php?showtopic=16379&view=findpost&p=249638

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Is VIX-Gold Divergence Pricing In Too Much QE3 Hope (Or Not Enough)?

 

Submitted by Tyler Durden on 06/19/2012 - 13:40 Volatility

The relationship between two measures of risk-aversion, VIX (forward expectations of equity volatility) and Gold (forward expectations of central bank largesse), are diverging in a very pro-printing manner over the last few days. Emprically, it appears we see a rotation through three phases: a perfectly anti-correlated 'liquidation' plunge in gold prices on dramatic rises in VIX (or risk); a highly correlated period of VIX and Gold movements (as uncertainty over the binary print-and-be-saved or don't-print-and-peril process evolves); and a hopeful period of anti-correlation where Gold rises and VIX plunges on the back of further printing to the rescue.

 

We find ourselves in the latter phase currently. It appears that VIX at a 17 handle is pricing rather notably more QE (and its implied vol compression) relative to Gold at only $1620.

 

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/vix-gold-divergence-pricing-too-much-qe3-hope-or-not-enough

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BUBB your website GEI has been branded "adult" by o2 which somewhat disrupts my mobile browsing. This is a new development experienced over the last week.

 

 

Really?

 

Maybe they didn't see the Fringe :P

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BUBB your website GEI has been branded "adult" by o2 which somewhat disrupts my mobile browsing. This is a new development experienced over the last week.

more info -

http://blogs.which.co.uk/technology/mobile-phone-networks/o2-adult-filter-provokes-twitter-anger/

That is truly bizarre.

Perhaps GEI is not mamby-pamby enough for them.

Or maybe they think that criticizing Gordon Brown and Paul Krugman is solely an activity for adults

 

Get a new mobile phone service? That might be a solution

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NEWS Soon...

 

It is funny.

Stocks seem to be expecting more from Mr Bernanke than the Gold market is.

 

We will know soon, who has it right.

== ==

 

I have been at a mining conference all day (and tomorrow too!)

So there's not been much time to follow the markets

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BUBB your website GEI has been branded "adult" by o2 which somewhat disrupts my mobile browsing. This is a new development experienced over the last week.

 

more info -

 

http://blogs.which.co.uk/technology/mobile-phone-networks/o2-adult-filter-provokes-twitter-anger/

That could be my fault. I swore the other day and perhaps the word was picked up in the evaluation. Drbubb will have to decide whether he wishes to safeguard his site from being blacklisted in this fashion.

 

I think i said ... in the middle of a f***king bank run.

 

I was interested in buying more silver bullion but did not like the idea of squirting a large amount if funds into the network at the moment in question. It takes weeks to get decedent sized orders shipped and that is a LONG time in politics. You might discover that a link in the chain either goes kaput, or has its balance changed into drachamas or frankly anything.

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Fed twists again.

Pop and drop anyone?

Twist and Shout...? Or Twist again / lyrics:

 

"Do you remember when things were really humming...?"

The market cannot live on memories forever.

 

And not much of a shout, more of a whisper

 

SPY : 135.48 / Change: -0.22

Open: 135.71 / High: 136.10 / Low: 134.27

Volume: 195,816,094

Percent Change: -0.16%

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Larry P. has a possible Turn date today, I believe.

 

But he doesn't take the idea of a downturn very seriously.

He seems to think that the market has been showing some good strength in the face of much bad news,

and so may not fall much.

 

Tom Obrien seems to remain in a more bearish mood

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Gold/GLD - not very perky

 

90473446.png

 

153.0999 / Change: -2.8701

 

Open: 153.73 / High: 154.2299 / Low: 152.84

Volume: 6,879,807

Percent Change: -1.84%

 

GLD is back down, filling a GAP from the beginning of the month.

So far, volume seems to be LESS than yesterday

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Larry P. has a possible Turn date today, I believe.

But he doesn't take the idea of a downturn very seriously.

He seems to think that the market has been showing some good strength in the face of much bad news,

and so may not fall much.

Tom Obrien seems to remain in a more bearish mood

Maybe he will change his mind, since this looks like a serious drop

 

SPY : 1,325.47 -30.22 / Percent Change:-2.23% / Volume:661,383,023

IWM : $76.575 -1.955 / Percent Change: -2.49%

TZA : $20.86 +1.4308 / Percent Change: +7.36% (!!)*

GLD : 152.03 -3.94 / Percent Change: -2.53% / Volume: 14,211,691

GDX : $44.82 -2.45 / Percent Change: -5.18% / Volume: 17,301,520

=====

 

*I added to my TZA calls, but did it 1-2 days before the Turn

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Positive Correlation ? ... update

 

99669528.png

 

HK Stocks (HSI index) and Gold are moving down together.

 

When will they move in opposite directions again, as in 2011 ?

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Positive Correlation ? ... update

 

99669528.png

 

HK Stocks (HSI index) and Gold are moving down together.

 

When will they move in opposite directions again, as in 2011 ?

You need to get with the program drbubb! They are moving down together because this is a financial crisis dontcha know, and in a financial crisis you are supposed to sell your gold and your profitable stocks and buy as much sovereign debt as you can because it is very limited in supply and they might run out.

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us headed back into recession, says mish shedlock

 

- at the beginning of this podcast:

 

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=i0DBmn8hXlw

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