Jump to content
Sign in to follow this  
drbubb

DrBubb's Trading Diary - JUNE 2012 - v.42

Recommended Posts

Wow, just hit my limit!

 

300 ticks in less than a week, nice :D

 

Nice one, what is it you're trading John (stocks/futures/options) and who's your broker?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Nice one, what is it you're trading (stocks/futures/options) and who's your broker?

 

Cheers (although TBH I'm only betting relatively small amounts compared to quite a few here).

 

Spread betting (I use Finspreads) on the dow. I had pencilled in 12200 as a low risk in point a few days before (on Van’s thread I think) as it was a fib retrace and nice support previously etc, and everything looked a bit oversold at the end of last week so I gave it a shot.

 

I had a target of 12500 (Nice round figure and didn't seem too greedy) which was hit today. So, not life changing, but will pay for a few cases of wine and some new toys (slowly upgrading all my power tools :D ).

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Cheers (although TBH I'm only betting relatively small amounts compared to quite a few here).

 

Spread betting (I use Finspreads) on the dow. I had pencilled in 12200 as a low risk in point a few days before (on Van's thread I think) as it was a fib retrace and nice support previously etc, and everything looked a bit oversold at the end of last week so I gave it a shot.

 

I had a target of 12500 (Nice round figure and didn't seem too greedy) which was hit today. So, not life changing, but will pay for a few cases of wine and some new toys (slowly upgrading all my power tools :D ).

 

Nice. I sold too early, but OTOH bought a big chunk right near the bottom when the down went near 12000 in premarket on Monday am.

I've now reversed and gone short SPX, while rebuying the gold & silver that I offloaded yesterday.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I can scarce believe what I just read.

???

What's wrong with that.

Would you encourage people to front run you.

I did not deceive anyone, I simply did not tell people which option I was buying:

I just said: I am buying Sept SLW calls.

 

To say more that that before I bought would have been very foolish. Do you see it differently?

If so, I doubt you understand much about how markets work.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I think you are unfair over Facebook. I think it is probably a fabulous company...

Nothing wrong with Facebook except the price I think. When it gets down in single figure quotes I will pay attention.

Sure.

But what is "cheap" enough? $20? $15? $10?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

After the Weird Wally Wednesday spike in Silver...

 

SLV / Silver etf ... update

85583135.png

 

The markets often fill gaps rather quickly. This one was filled in one day.

(It does not necessarily end the uptrend BTW. SLV is above the 21d MA.)

 

Meantime, in the Gold market:

 

Comex Gold Ends Sharply Lower as Bernanke Disappoints; Bulls Lose Technical Momentum

 

Thursday June 07, 2011 2:26 PM

 

Bernanke said the U.S. is facing economic headwinds, especially due to the European Union debt crisis, but offered up no specifics on any fresh monetary stimulus package to promote more economic growth. The restrained tone of Bernanke's speech disappointed gold market bulls who wanted immediate gratification on economic stimulus. However, Bernanke at this time holding his cards close to his vest on the matter did not surprise most market watchers--many of whom still reckon the Fed will at some point down the road provide fresh monetary policy easing.

 

The “Bernanke bust” overshadowed several significant market place developments that occurred earlier Thursday, led by news China has cuts its interest rate by 0.25% in an effort to stimulate its economy. The surprise move by China is a bullish factor for most raw commodity markets, as China is a major raw commodity consumer.

 

The London P.M. gold fix is $1,606.00 versus the previous London P.M. fixing of $1,635.00

 

/more: http://www.kitco.com/reports/KitcoNews20120607JW_pm.html

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

wow look at the min chart on GC gold futures. Very impressive drop.

 

$1,571 - $17 / USD up too

 

/see: http://Goldstock.co.uk for charts

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Those charts may not show the GAP on the minute chart, which was a candle stick pattern you very rarely see,,,

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Nice. I sold too early, but OTOH bought a big chunk right near the bottom when the down went near 12000 in premarket on Monday am.

I've now reversed and gone short SPX, while rebuying the gold & silver that I offloaded yesterday.

 

Nice move.

 

Well we got the interest rate cut in China I was looking for, but only 0.25% and no accompanying announcement of QE from either the UK and, more importantly, the US, that I thought could have pushed the markets up a good 5% or even more.

 

As such, I'm not confident enough to jump back in just yet, so will sit out for a bit and see how things shape up.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

???

What's wrong with that.

Would you encourage people to front run you.

I did not deceive anyone, I simply did not tell people which option I was buying:

I just said: I am buying Sept SLW calls.

 

To say more that that before I bought would have been very foolish. Do you see it differently?

If so, I doubt you understand much about how markets work.

I was a bit surprised because you imply that your opinion can actually move markets.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I was a bit surprised because you imply that your opinion can actually move markets.

Have you seen the spread in those calls?

 

If someone front-runs me on the options, then I am unlikely to get the price I wang

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Have you seen the spread in those calls?

 

If someone front-runs me on the options, then I am unlikely to get the price I wang

I am just surprised that it could be so thinly traded as to be moved by such a person who takes advice from here. I am not doubting what you say.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Building Cause ?

 

GDX / Gold Stocks ... update

 

91515528.png

 

Gold stocks may be "building cause", ie shaking out weak holders, in preparation to a LEAP through the 76d MA

 

Meantime,

GLD / Gold etf ... update

79004358.png

 

...went back to fill the Gap up, that was left when GLD jumped ahead on speculation that BB might announce QE3

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

SPY / etf for S&P500 ... update : SPX-daily

 

69816831.png

 

...looks like it should make it to SPY-134 and maybe 136

 

 

US Stocks Rally On Speculation Of Spanish Bailout

 

By Matt Jarzemsky NEW YORK--Stocks rallied Friday, extending major benchmarks' biggest weekly gains of the year, as speculation about potential Spanish bailout talks this weekend buoyed sentiment.

 

There is a chance there may be some news over the weekend.

 

Reports surfaced that Spain could seek aid from the European Union as early as Saturday. A spokeswoman for the Spanish government quickly refuted that, but a euro-zone official said leaders would discuss potential support for the country's banks Saturday morning. Spain's IBEX 35 rallied 1.8%.

 

"The problems in Spain are still the same, but if there's a meaningful, coordinated, pan-European policy response, that is a measurable positive," said Stephen Wood, chief market strategist at Russell Investments.

 

Meanwhile, President Barack Obama said there are specific steps the euro zone could take to solve its debt crisis, such as injecting capital into banks to help stabilize the financial system.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

SPY / etf for S&P500 ... update : SPX-daily

 

69816831.png

 

...looks like it should make it to SPY-134 and maybe 136

 

 

US Stocks Rally On Speculation Of Spanish Bailout

 

By Matt Jarzemsky NEW YORK--Stocks rallied Friday, extending major benchmarks' biggest weekly gains of the year, as speculation about potential Spanish bailout talks this weekend buoyed sentiment.

 

There is a chance there may be some news over the weekend.

 

Reports surfaced that Spain could seek aid from the European Union as early as Saturday. A spokeswoman for the Spanish government quickly refuted that, but a euro-zone official said leaders would discuss potential support for the country's banks Saturday morning. Spain's IBEX 35 rallied 1.8%.

 

"The problems in Spain are still the same, but if there's a meaningful, coordinated, pan-European policy response, that is a measurable positive," said Stephen Wood, chief market strategist at Russell Investments.

 

Meanwhile, President Barack Obama said there are specific steps the euro zone could take to solve its debt crisis, such as injecting capital into banks to help stabilize the financial system.

 

Hmmm, (to my EW beginner eye) looks like a nice 5 wave down, now in an ABC correction, so another push up before the falls commence?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Hmmm, (to my EW beginner eye) looks like a nice 5 wave down, now in an ABC correction, so another push up before the falls commence?

The 4th wave isn't very satisfactory in that count.

 

To be it looks like wave-3 is complete, with wave 4 underway.

Once that is done, there may be more downside to come, to complete the 5th wave.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

(Here's a comment from Elliott Wave Market Service ):

 

No change. And from recent commentary;

Same as the equity markets -

 

It's a dead cat bounce - don't get tricked into thinking any differently - not matter who tells you.

 

For currencies, once this bounce is done (and it will be) - it's likely going to be even less pretty than equities from what we see (except for the US Dollar).

 

Once again, if you disagree - feel free to go long and we'll let history be the judge.

 

And so, the weekend edition of the Daily Currency Forecast report for June 8, 2012 is now available to be viewed.

 

Yours faithfully,

 

Paul Thomason, Elliott Wave Market Service

/ elliottwavemarketservice.co

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

My investment buddy thinks the markets will be soaring next week.

I think the rally will Peter out at SPX 1340-1360*, if the US fails to "join the party"

 

A "yes" vote to Europe will not fix the problems in Greece

 

*as stated in a post above:

"...looks like it should make it to SPY-134 and maybe 136"

=== ===

 

(in edit):

After the Spanish "call for help" was answered, and better-than-expected numbers were

released by China:

 

1340 has been touched already in pre-market trading:

 

U.S. Stock Futures

S&P +15.00 / +1.13%

Level 1,337.00

Fair Value 1,318.67

 

Dow +128.00 / +1.02%

Level 12,631.00

Data as of 8:21pm ET

 

/see: http://money.cnn.com/data/premarket/

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

GOLD has popped back up again, thanks to the "Spain news"

 

t24_au_en_usoz_6.gif

 

HK-2840 / Gold etf in Hong Kong ... update

 

chart-?

 

HK2840: 1,203.00 Change: +20.00

Open: 1,210.00 High: 1,210.00 Low: 1,202.00

Volume: 3,490

Percent Change: +1.69%

 

1203 / 7.75 = erqv.GLD-$155.23

 

If we multiply by 10.31 = S1,600.31

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

1340 has been touched already in pre-market trading:

U.S. Stock Futures

S&P +15.00 / +1.13%

Level 1,337.00

Fair Value 1,318.67

/see: http://money.cnn.com/data/premarket/

Stocks are struggling to hold onto a gain

 

SPX latest: +4.50 / +0.34%

Level 1,326.50

Fair Value 1,318.67

 

(in edit):

After opening: US Stocks now in the RED, Gold too, at $1586/oz.

 

Bloomberg: "Spanish bailout raises more questions than it answers."

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Roundtrip for Big Steel ?

 

X / US Steel ... update : 3yrs-w

 

77265176.png

 

Is nearly back at the 2009 Lows.

 

I wonder how many of these old favorites with retest 2009 Lows ?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Weakness (in stocks) is noteworthy

 

...in view of the supposed "good news" of the bailout

 

SPY : $131.415 Change: -$1.685 / SPY-chart

 

I do note that SPY closed on/near a "double bottom" on the 15 min. charts,

just above the support level.

 

Volume: 169.76 million, and that's above Friday's volume

 

 

Do the Banking powers have anything more "up their sleeves" ?

=== ==

 

 

Global markets reverse gains on Spanish debt concerns

 

Reuters - ‎23 minutes ago‎

 

By Chikako Mogi | TOKYO (Reuters) - Asian markets reversed the previous day's hefty gains on Tuesday as a European bailout for Spain's debt-stricken banks failed to convince investors that the spread of the debt crisis in Europe will be halted.

 

http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/06/12/us-markets-global-idUSBRE8520GN20120612

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now
Sign in to follow this  

×