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GOLD SHARES / such as: GDX, GDXJ, CDNX etc.

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Perhaps Jim puplavas puke point has arrived then if your account is anything to go by.

For the record, I ran out of money last week and today I borrowed some money. I have spent it today.

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Perhaps Jim puplavas puke point has arrived then if your account is anything to go by.

For the record, I ran out of money last week and today I borrowed some money. I have spent it today.

 

You're borrowing money to buy gold / gold stocks?

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You darn right I am. Not margin, its long term money.

I am bullish on Gold (as you may know ) -

But past experience has taught me that you much approach markets with the idea:

"Anything can happen," so be careful at how much exposure you take.

 

I think GLD-$150 is very likely, and if broken, we could easly see GLD-$140 or lower.

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I am bullish on Gold (as you may know ) -

But past experience has taught me that you much approach markets with the idea:

"Anything can happen," so be careful at how much exposure you take.

 

I think GLD-$150 is very likely, and if broken, we could easly see GLD-$140 or lower.

You're totally right and it is a foolish thing to use any kind of leverage, margin or no, in the usual. I am being seduced by the exceptional value. However, I am not planning on borrowing any more money.

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excerpt from Reuters;

 

 

"Gold miners need $3,000 price in five years - gold council

 

 

May 14 (Reuters) - Sharp increases in mining costs mean gold will need to reach $3,000 an ounce in five years for the industry to stay profitable, World Gold Council chief executive Aram Shishmanian said on Monday.

 

Miners currently needed a gold price of $1,300 to survive, Shishmanian said, but faced steep rises in mining costs, along with the cost of dividends and host nation taxes.

 

"If this continues for the next five years the gold price needs to be at least $3,000 just to stay in the business," he said. However, he was optimistic sustained demand would drive prices higher over the long term.

 

Spot gold fell to a four-and-a-half month low of $1,556.5 an ounce on Monday on concerns over the European debt crisis. Normally a refuge for investors in times of economic turmoil, gold has recently traded in line with risk assets like base metals and stocks.

 

Future demand would come from emerging markets, central banks and investors, Shishmanian said, noting that China and India now represent 55 percent of the world gold market.

 

"Emerging markets are going to hold increasing amounts of gold reserves," Shishmanian said. "Holding billions of dollars doesn't help them. The alternative potentially is gold."

 

Exchange traded funds backed by gold currently hold $120 billion, he said.

 

"This is the tip of the iceberg," he said. "U.S. pension funds do not hold substantial amounts of gold but we see that changing over the next 20 years.""

 

 

 

 

This at least explains part of the current situation.

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"Gold miners need $3,000 price in five years - gold council

 

OR WHAT ?

 

May 14 (Reuters) - Sharp increases in mining costs mean gold will need to reach $3,000 an ounce in five years for the industry to stay profitable

 

Perhaps they will not stay profitable

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"Gold miners need $3,000 price in five years - gold council

 

OR WHAT ?

 

May 14 (Reuters) - Sharp increases in mining costs mean gold will need to reach $3,000 an ounce in five years for the industry to stay profitable

 

Perhaps they will not stay profitable

 

Even at these prices there is an awful lot which are not profitable. I struggle to find many juniors which add cash to the balance sheet quarter over quarter.

 

Cash costs per ounce is a joke. Often, after exploration, sustaining capex, G&A, debt interest, any positive net income is down to a sleight of creative accounting.

 

To put a percentage on it, 80% of Junior producers don't turn a 'real' profit.

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Even at these prices there is an awful lot which are not profitable. I struggle to find many juniors which add cash to the balance sheet quarter over quarter.

Cash costs per ounce is a joke. Often, after exploration, sustaining capex, G&A, debt interest, any positive net income is down to a sleight of creative accounting.

To put a percentage on it, 80% of Junior producers don't turn a 'real' profit.

Indeed.

I will comment more on this on my Diary today

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Paulsen - Now a Contrary Indicator ??

 

John Paulson Pares AngloGold Stake as Mining Companies Decline

2012-05-16 04:00:01.10 GMT

 

 

By Kelly Bit

May 16 (Bloomberg) -- John Paulson, the billionaire manager

seeking to reverse record losses in 2011, scaled back positions

in gold miners AngloGold Ashanti Ltd. and Gold Fields Ltd. in

the first quarter as producers of the metal drove declines in

his largest hedge funds.

Paulson & Co., which manages about $24 billion, sold 1.1

million of its American depositary receipts of AngloGold

Ashanti, its third-largest position, valued at $231.3 million,

the New York-based firm said today in a filing with the U.S.

Securities and Exchange Commission. It also pared 4.7 million of

its ADRs in Gold Fields, valued at $96.3 million.

Paulson, 56, lost 6.7 percent last month and 8.8 percent

this year in his Advantage Plus fund, which seeks to profit from

corporate events such as takeovers and bankruptcies and uses

leverage to amplify returns, as gold-mining stocks dropped.

Companies that explore for and mine the metal also were the main

drivers of losses in the firm’s Advantage Fund, which employs a

strategy similar to Advantage Plus, and its Gold Fund, which can

buy derivatives and other gold-related investments.

Gold-mining stocks in the 64-security S&P/TSX Global Gold

Index slumped 7.3 percent in April and 13 percent in the first

four months of 2012. Bullion fell 0.5 percent last month amid

concern that Europe’s debt crisis may worsen and that a slowdown

in China may curb demand for the precious metal.

 

Positive on Gold

 

Paulson, who became a billionaire in 2007 by betting

against the subprime mortgage market, told clients in February

that gold is his best long-term bet, serving as protection

against currency debasement, rising inflation and a possible

breakup of the euro. Gold miners are historically inexpensive,

he said at a meeting with investors last month.

“Despite recent negative performance, we believe that the

outlook for gold and gold equities remains positive,” Paulson

said in a first-quarter letter to investors. “The improved

performance of the U.S. economy is consistent with our view that

the Fed’s massive stimulus program is beginning to take effect,

and that the effects of quantitative easing will eventually

result in higher levels of inflation.”

 

== ==

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GDX and GDXJ starting to look a bit oversold now, high volume on both yesterday;

 

 

GDX

GDX-2.png

 

 

GDXJ

GDXJ-2.png

 

 

 

The ratio of GDX/GLD is still trending down (60 day, 5 min interval);

GDXGDXKJr.png

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Bit bothered by SSRI failing to move up yesterday in the face of a strong sectorial move. Although I was always aware that silver standard were only just borderline value - as you will see if you read my history. I'm a bit cross with myself for jumping into ssri so quickly, but hey, if this truly is the bottom then I can't complain over all.

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"Gold miners need $3,000 price in five years - gold council

 

OR WHAT ?

 

May 14 (Reuters) - Sharp increases in mining costs mean gold will need to reach $3,000 an ounce in five years for the industry to stay profitable

 

Perhaps they will not stay profitable

 

I wouldn't trust the World Gold Council as far as I could throw them.

 

They repeatedly over the past few years I have been paying attention come out with the most bizarrely anti-gold statements.

 

I can only conclude they are not really into promoting gold as an investment.

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Bit bothered by SSRI failing to move up yesterday in the face of a strong sectorial move. Although I was always aware that silver standard were only just borderline value - as you will see if you read my history. I'm a bit cross with myself for jumping into ssri so quickly, but hey, if this truly is the bottom then I can't complain over all.

A number of my London listed Miners were pounded yesterday and the pounding is continuing today.

 

Bit worrying

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GDX/GLD (60 day, 5 min interval)

 

Still in the downward channel, despite yesterday's blast higher.

 

 

:-) :-). :-)

 

Get outta here. This thing has turned like you won't believe.

 

Hope you hungry BIGMAN cos I still got that tube of BUTT HOLE ointment in my fridge for your sandwich when I make my targets this year.

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Get outta here. This thing has turned like you won't believe.

 

The previous chart showed up to the close of the 18th (and it was still in the downward channel). Things have moved on from there however and GDX has (as of the close yesterday) broken up out of that channel, when measured in GLD, suggesting an intermediate low is in;

 

 

GDXGLD-1.png

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JHK on Gold

 

Reality's theme going forward is changing from liquidity to liquidation.

 

The European LTRO was a nice fairy tail, and the mild buzz lasted a few months, but its flimsy spell is broken. An awful lot of parties may be liquidating gold and silver, too, this week but under the circumstances I've got to think there will be plenty of counterparties looking to buy, since uncertainty is crushing all other media of exchange. The process begins to look like a mass metamorphic conversion of winners to losers and vice-versa.

 

In a giant unwinding of paper assets the result may be that precious metals go sideways while all other assets tank - and then once everything's in the tank, PMs tank, too, because nobody is left standing with that kind of cash. Of course, in the event just a little bitty bit of gold will still buy a lot of stuff. The other possibility is that the rumored global coordinated central bank QE doomsday machine goes off destroying the meaning of cash money altogether. Surely that sort or stunt will not cast the same spell as the LTRO, a more measured act of desperation, but will call into question the very meaning of dollars, euros, yen, and pounds sterling. That's when you'll be paying $25,000 for a Little Debbie snack cake.

 

/more: http://kunstler.com/blog/2012/05/dancing-shoes.html

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A number of my London listed Miners were pounded yesterday and the pounding is continuing today.

 

Bit worrying

 

 

Who do you own?

I around 100 different mining/exploring company shares.

 

When I posted above, I was thinking of

African Consolodated

Conroy Gold

Hambledon Mining

Jubilee Plat

KEFI

Landore

Mariana Resources

Norseman Gold

Solomon Gold

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I around 100 different mining/exploring company shares.

 

When I posted above, I was thinking of

African Consolodated

Conroy Gold

Hambledon Mining

Jubilee Plat

KEFI

Landore

Mariana Resources

Norseman Gold

Solomon Gold

Good god, I could never take that much on. I have concentrated on seven, but mainly PAAS, SSRI, KGC and SVM.

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I just noticed that I can't have GDXJ in a UK ISA, at least not with TDdirectinvesting.

 

Are there any suggestions for a similar ETF that would be approved for a UK ISA?

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I just noticed that I can't have GDXJ in a UK ISA, at least not with TDdirectinvesting.

 

Are there any suggestions for a similar ETF that would be approved for a UK ISA?

You could consider Funds / OEICs / Unit trusts

 

for example:

http://www.hl.co.uk/funds/fund-discounts,-prices--and--factsheets/search-results?companyid=&tab=prices&x=0&y=0&sectorid=&tab=prices&investment=gold

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Good god, I could never take that much on. I have concentrated on seven, but mainly PAAS, SSRI, KGC and SVM.

They are not all gold/pm related. Some of my biggest mining investments are in the FTSE100 base metal miners.

 

WRT gold/pm miners: I've gone for the "buy everything and hope something survives" stratergy.

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