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GOLD SHARES / such as: GDX, GDXJ, CDNX etc.

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[quote name='romans holiday' timestamp='1332271039' post='244067']
I've always steered clear of miners due to my deflationary bias.
[/quote]

In your deflationary world would gold not rise against everything including mining input costs?
If so I would have imagined miners would be an asset of choice for you as their cash flow would soar.

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[quote name='DoctorSolar' timestamp='1332272246' post='244070']
In your deflationary world would gold not rise against everything including mining input costs?
If so I would have imagined miners would be an asset of choice for you as their cash flow would soar.
[/quote]
It's a good point, and probably if I were to own an asset, for the hope of monetary gain, it would be some miners. As the argument goes, gold rises making mining more economical which in turn aids the re-capitalization of economies. But I think the dynamics of deflation are putting pressure on all stocks. Whether this continues into the future, or whether gold stocks become the exception, is debatable. Being a deflationist I've chosen to focus on liquidity, and its strongest forms, and trading the volatility for monetary gain.

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[quote name='romans holiday' timestamp='1332274733' post='244079']
But I think the dynamics of deflation are putting pressure on all stocks.
[/quote]

The DOW has doubled since the low of March 2009 and is only 9% or less off its all time high. How does that fit with this view?

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[quote name='DoctorSolar' timestamp='1332279860' post='244085']
The DOW has doubled since the low of March 2009 and is only 9% or less off its all time high. How does that fit with this view?
[/quote]
The operative word is 'pressure'. There are obviously pressures to both sides, just that I think the predominant one is deflationary. The deflation is more clearly seen when factoring in gold [as an effective monetary unit] over and above the pound. This perspective also shows deflationary pressure [depreciation against gold] on the pound. The failure to factor this in leads to distortion, from a macro perspective, when pricing the DOW in pounds. In today's environment, a pound-centric approach would be a form of money illusion... because of its focus on [i]units[/i] instead of real monetary [i]value[/i]. That said, there's a good chance the DOW can depreciate against the pound, even as the pound depreciates against gold.

It's kind of futile to talk of inflation and deflation in the old 'fiat'-centric [i]absolute[/i] terms today, when you have to ask what is inflating or deflating [i]relative[/i] to what.

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[quote name='romans holiday' timestamp='1332280187' post='244087']
The operative word is 'pressure'. There are obviously pressures to both sides, just that I think the predominant one is deflationary. The deflation is more clearly seen when factoring in gold [as an effective monetary unit] over and above the pound. This perspective also shows deflationary pressure [depreciation against gold] on the pound. The failure to factor this in leads to distortion, from a macro perspective, when pricing the DOW in pounds. In today's environment, a pound-centric approach would be a form of money illusion... because of its focus on [i]units[/i] instead of real monetary [i]value[/i].
[/quote]

I am looking at the dow in dollars... the currency that I thought was meant to remain chronically strong... on that basis a dow that is just of its highs is well very high indeed.

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[quote name='DoctorSolar' timestamp='1332281288' post='244090']
I am looking at the dow in dollars... the currency that I thought was meant to remain chronically strong... on that basis a dow that is just of its highs is well very high indeed.
[/quote]
Ok, the same arguments apply to the dollar. The Dow threatens to depreciate against the dollar. For most with dollar-denominated debt, the decline of the value of dollar-denominated assets would be chronic indeed. They would effectively be crucified on a strong currency, even if that currency continued to depreciate in the aggregate against gold.

All stops have been pulled out to depreciate the dollar [relative to dollar-denominated assets], and scare investors into assets/ commodities. This has had some effect [the Bernanke effect], but assets and commodities were supposed to have hugely inflated in price according to some pundits.... the markets have stubbornly failed to follow the script. Why? On-going deflationary pressure.

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People seem to have ignored or missed what may proved my most important post in months,
so I will REPEAT it here:

So far, this is looking like a pretty good call
[quote name='DrBubb' timestamp='1332200783' post='243991']
Gold's move up looks corrective so far.
...at minimum, it may need to test the recent lows.

[b]Having said that, a small 5th wave down to the low may be all that is required,
and that might prove to be a wonderful buying opportunity.[/b]
[/quote]
Yesterday brought a gap down, and a nice reversal.
There's a decent chance that we have just seen the low.
I especially liked the action in GDX

==== : open- : -low- : -high : close : change : volume
GLD- 160.20 : 159.77 : 161.08 : 160.13 : -0.90% : 11.64mn
GDX- $48.99 : $48.42 : $49.99 : $49.86 : +0.52% : 15.29mn
GDXJ $24.59 : $24.15 : $24.84 : $24.81 : -0.28% : 3.156mn
GLDX $10.18 : $09.90 : $10.18 : $10.05 : -1.68% : 48,860

[b]I suggest you look at the above numbers carefully, and note how far each of these ETFs closed away from the low of the day.[/b]

I actually think the big reversals in GDX, etc, compared with the much smaller one in GLD is a positive indication of a pssible reversal, and Low being in place. The last three lows (at least) have been patterned that way

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[quote name='DrBubb' timestamp='1332286893' post='244101']
People seem to have ignored or missed what may proved my most important post in months,
so I will REPEAT it here:

So far, this is looking like a pretty good call

Yesterday brought a gap down, and a nice reversal.
There's a decent chance that we have just seen the low.
I especially liked the action in GDX

==== : open- : -low- : -high : close : change : volume
GLD- 160.20 : 159.77 : 161.08 : 160.13 : -0.90% : 11.64mn
GDX- $48.99 : $48.42 : $49.99 : $49.86 : +0.52% : 15.29mn
GDXJ $24.59 : $24.15 : $24.84 : $24.81 : -0.28% : 3.156mn
GLDX $10.18 : $09.90 : $10.18 : $10.05 : -1.68% : 48,860

[b]I suggest you look at the above numbers carefully, and note how far each of these ETFs closed away from the low of the day.[/b]

I actually think the big reversals in GDX, etc, compared with the much smaller one in GLD is a positive indication of a pssible reversal, and Low being in place. The last three lows (at least) have been patterned that way
[/quote]
http://www.greenenergyinvestors.com/index.php?showtopic=9164&view=findpost&p=244081

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Had GDX and GDXJ on my watch list for a while now. This guy is thinking GDX is in a bull trap.
http://seekingalpha.com/article/451321-gdx-contrarian-opportunity-or-trap?source=email_rt_article&ifp=0

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Today's up move looks promising to me...

GLD- : 161.28 +1.71 / Open: 160.88 High: 161.88 Low: 160.52 / Vol: 7,692,335 // +1.07%
SLV- : $31.20 +0.66 / Open: $30.86 High: $31.27 Low: $30.75 / Vol: 9,113,413 // +2.15%
GDX-: $49.80 +1.05 / Open: $49.08 High: $50.04 Low: $48.83 / Vol: 7,909,386 // +2.15%
GDXJ: $24.66 +0.66 / Open: $24.27 High: $24.82 Low: $24.13 / Vol: 2,216,058 // +2.75%

I will update after the close

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Not so sure whther the gold stocks are such a good trade on volatility to the upside as say silver itself. Silver can also be thought to leverage the volatility in gold while steering clear of stocks.


[quote name='romans holiday' timestamp='1332474941' post='244314']
[IMG]http://i703.photobucket.com/albums/ww33/ppentecost/final.png[/IMG]


Close enough to 50, so have bought with the last of my earmarked funds.


I've now pretty much exposed to precious metals with all my [i]liquid[/i] worth, with this trade balanced against core gold. Will be keen to reduce a lot of that exposure on the next silver spike. Target of 600 odd in two years or so.
[/quote]

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[quote name='DrBubb' timestamp='1332521701' post='244352']
Today's up move looks promising to me...
I will update after the close
[/quote]
A good upmove with decent (above average) volume behind it

GLD- : 161.53 +1.96 / Open: 160.88 High: 161.88 Low: 160.52 / Vol: 10,689,781 (ave.12mn) // +1.23%
SLV- : $31.24 +0.70 / Open: $30.86 High: $31.37 Low: $30.75 / Vol: 13,835,320 (ave.20mn) // +2.29%
GDX-: $49.76 +1.01 / Open: $49.08 High: $50.06 Low: $48.83 / Vol: 14,594,844 (ave.12mn) // +2.07%
GDXJ: $24.65 +0.65 / Open: $24.27 High: $24.82 Low: $24.13 / Vol: 3,338,194 (ave.2.7mn) // +2.71%

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How's this trade doing?
[quote name='DrBubb' timestamp='1332186220' post='243961']
[b]I am buying a Bull Spread[/b]
My investment, for example is $12,000, as follows:

JUNE 2012 options: (with GLD at $160.13)
GLD-$165 calls: at $3.90 x 50 = $19,500 - Bought
GLD-$175 calls: at $1.50 x 50 = $07,500 + Sold
=====================
Bull Spread: +$165c - $175c == $12,000

If GLD is $175 or higher, is worth: $50,000
GLD-$175 = Gold price of about $1,800
Why do anything else?
[/quote]
Gold is up from below $160 to a $164.40 close.

JUNE 2012 options: (with GLD at $164.40)
GLD-$165 calls: at $5.70 x 50 = $28,500 - Bought
GLD-$175 calls: at $2.38 x 50 = $11,900 + Sold
=====================
Bull Spread: +$165c - $175c == $16,600

[b]That's a return of 38.3% on a 2.66% move in GLD/ Gold.[/b]

Not bad for someone criticised sometimes for "not being bullish enough" on Gold.

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Anyone know if GDX/GDXJ are considered to be the same or different to GBS for Capital Gains purposes? I want to sell GBS and buy GDX without having to worry about the 30 day rule. Thanks.

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[quote name='sine270' timestamp='1332933605' post='244674']
Anyone know if GDX/GDXJ are considered to be the same or different to GBS for Capital Gains purposes? I want to sell GBS and buy GDX without having to worry about the 30 day rule. Thanks.
[/quote]
GBS is almost identical with GLD, but is quite different from GDX and GDXJ

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[quote name='DrBubb' timestamp='1332936878' post='244681']
GBS is almost identical with GLD, but is quite different from GDX and GDXJ
[/quote]
Thanks, and I guess that is how hmrc would see it too.

Just took a look at the charts and they seem to be in a slight downward trend. Hightly volatile though and therefore good for trading when the time is right. I was looking for somewhere to plonk my cash for 30 days minimum after selling GBS, but perhaps the downward trend is no more than bullion is at the moment. Looks like it could be a buying opportunity or perhaps catching falling knives. Wouldn't mind a go at trading one of these but would prefer to do it into a rising trend. Its not for B&H for the faint hearted IMO.

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[quote name='14k' timestamp='1332951328' post='244715']
Had a limit order put in at 24.5 for gdxj.. then it carried on falling to 23.87 now!
[/quote]

This is why I dont like using limit orders if there's not a definite sideways or upwards trend. Not that I've tried for years.
Did you buy to hold for a while?

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[quote name='sine270' timestamp='1332962204' post='244760']
This is why I dont like using limit orders if there's not a definite sideways or upwards trend. Not that I've tried for years.
Did you buy to hold for a while?
[/quote]

Such a strong day Monday and most of Tuesday so I guess wasn't expecting it to fall as much as it did.
Yes I plan to hold for a while unless I see an opportunity too sell for a nice profit. I'm no expert and stay away from options etc.

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This GDX chart ... [url="http://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/kaavio.Webhost/charts/big.chart?nosettings=1&symb=gdx&uf=0&type=2&size=2&sid=2325226&style=320&freq=1&time=11&rand=900784586&compidx=aaaaa%3a0&ma=4&maval=987,%2076,%20610&lf=268435456&lf2=0&lf3=0&height=335&width=579&mocktick=1"]update[/url] : [url="http://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/kaavio.Webhost/charts/big.chart?nosettings=1&symb=gdx&uf=0&type=4&size=3&sid=2325226&style=320&freq=1&entitlementtoken=0c33378313484ba9b46b8e24ded87dd6&time=12&rand=1715920905&compidx=aaaaa%3a0&comp=gld&ma=1&maval=76, 252, 987&lf=268435456&lf2=0&lf3=0&height=510&width=720&mocktick=1"]GDXvsGLD[/url] : ASAvsGLD

[img]http://img856.imageshack.us/img856/3508/65713311.gif[/img]

...SHOWS there is potential for a cyclical Low right where we are.

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[quote name='DrBubb' timestamp='1333037072' post='244842']
This GDX chart ... [url="http://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/kaavio.Webhost/charts/big.chart?nosettings=1&symb=gdx&uf=0&type=2&size=2&sid=2325226&style=320&freq=1&time=11&rand=900784586&compidx=aaaaa%3a0&ma=4&maval=987,%2076,%20610&lf=268435456&lf2=0&lf3=0&height=335&width=579&mocktick=1"]update[/url] : [url="http://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/kaavio.Webhost/charts/big.chart?nosettings=1&symb=gdx&uf=0&type=4&size=3&sid=2325226&style=320&freq=1&entitlementtoken=0c33378313484ba9b46b8e24ded87dd6&time=12&rand=1715920905&compidx=aaaaa%3a0&comp=gld&ma=1&maval=76, 252, 987&lf=268435456&lf2=0&lf3=0&height=510&width=720&mocktick=1"]GDXvsGLD[/url] : ASAvsGLD

[img]http://img856.imageshack.us/img856/3508/65713311.gif[/img]

...SHOWS there is potential for a cyclical Low right where we are.
[/quote]
Are those purple diagonal lines perfectly parallel?

The chart doesn’t look quite right to my eye. It looks like the middle line should be drawn at a slightly (very slightly) steeper angle.

This would put the GDX price below the purple line.

I’m not sure it makes any difference… does it make a difference?

I’m kinda hoping next Friday will be the low as I will be topping up my account and going on a buying spree. (It’s an ISA account so I am not able to fund it before next Friday)

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Like this

[URL=http://imageshack.us/photo/my-images/826/gdxz.png/][IMG]http://img826.imageshack.us/img826/4397/gdxz.png[/IMG][/URL]

Uploaded with [URL=http://imageshack.us]ImageShack.us[/URL]

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BTW, I found a really good free charting package.

It’s like stock charts but you can go back more than 3 years. You can save your own custom studies and portfolios. So you always have your favourite charts to hand with your own moving averages etc.

www.barchart.com

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[quote name='Ziknew' timestamp='1333101213' post='244935']
BTW, I found a really good free charting package.

It’s like stock charts but you can go back more than 3 years. You can save your own custom studies and portfolios. So you always have your favourite charts to hand with your own moving averages etc.

www.barchart.com
[/quote]
Thanks.
I like your chart above too.

These ideas are from DrB's Diary, for the historical record here:

[quote name='DrBubb' timestamp='1333105212' post='244945']
Nice idea, P.

Here's the chart on my system / [url="http://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/kaavio.Webhost/charts/big.chart?nosettings=1&symb=au%3aogc&uf=0&type=2&size=2&sid=2755920&style=320&freq=2&entitlementtoken=0c33378313484ba9b46b8e24ded87dd6&time=10&rand=1615262314&compidx=aaaaa%3a0&ma=4&maval=18, 52, 200&lf=268435456&lf2=0&lf3=0&height=335&width=579&mocktick=1"]OGC.au-chart-Weekly[/url]

Looks very well supported, and set for a move higher, maybe a big one

Meantime, here's the same period for the Gold stock index / [url="http://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/kaavio.Webhost/charts/big.chart?nosettings=1&symb=gdx&uf=0&type=2&size=2&sid=2325226&style=320&freq=2&entitlementtoken=0c33378313484ba9b46b8e24ded87dd6&time=10&rand=1179644965&compidx=aaaaa%3a0&ma=4&maval=18, 52, 200&lf=268435456&lf2=0&lf3=0&height=335&width=579&mocktick=1"]GDX-chart-Weekly[/url]

Now that Newmont has tied its dividend to Gold, it could be good / [url="http://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/kaavio.Webhost/charts/big.chart?nosettings=1&symb=nem&uf=0&type=2&size=2&sid=3400&style=320&freq=2&entitlementtoken=0c33378313484ba9b46b8e24ded87dd6&time=10&rand=761547181&compidx=aaaaa%3a0&ma=4&maval=18, 52, 200&lf=268435456&lf2=0&lf3=0&height=335&width=579&mocktick=1"]NEM-chart-Weekly[/url]
[/quote]

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This is an interesting piece. Might help me sleep at night :lol:

http://www.safehaven.com/article/24897/gold-juniors-to-explode

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