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GOLD SHARES / such as: GDX, GDXJ, CDNX etc.

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Silver, & Gold shares - a weaker pullback

SLV... update

FYDF9fl.gif

Pullbacks are getting more shallow, and with weaker volume. The last upmove could be a "kickoff"

... or just a dead-cat bounce - we will soon see which it is

Although the recent pattern in gold has become ugly, there should be a dead-cat bounce in the metal in the next couple of days. Gold has been in a consolidation pattern for months and once again the metal is coming down to the bottom end, which suggests a bounce.

Even if gold headed lower, which is expected, a healthy bounce to $1,330-$1,340 is in the cards. Gold has become very oversold the last four to five days, falling about 3% since hitting $1,360. The bounce should come from between $1,310-$1,315 and should be a fast, vicious rally that will come out of nowhere.

Silver is trading midrange, holding support above its most recent breakout level. Look for silver to remain strong and bounce with gold. We still like the long-silver, short-gold trade and will look to take advantage of the expected bounce in gold.

> http://www.kitco.com/commentaries/2018-04-27/Gold-Should-Bounce.html

/ 2 / GDX - Gold stocks ... update

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In late January, gold was trading at $1365 and while it corrected $55 in 2 weeks, the GDX lost over 16% during the same time span. It has been my contention the GDX made its final low on February 9th, just below critical support at the $21 level. The final spike low was made just a half hour before the session ended, then reversed over 2% on huge volume to un-changed on the day. Major over-sold spike lows, which usually occur during lengthy gold stock consolidations, have a habit of ending with a sharp sell-off and an intra-day reversal in the GDX on large volume. In hindsight, after the inevitable break-out of extended gold stock consolidations, these intra-day reversal moves can eventually turn out to be THE major low before an impulse move higher begins.

Moreover, with the new Q1 2018 earnings season getting underway, the two largest global gold producers, Barrick Gold (ABX) & Newmont Mining (NEM), issued their Q1 results this week and both have maintained their respective quarterly dividends. Barrick was in-line with analysts’ expectations, while the Newmont result was ahead of market expectations for around 33 cents per share, according to news reports. In fact, the NEM share price made a 52-week high close this month and is trending upwards towards a multi-year high close. Both of these major miners make up a combined 20% of the holdings in GDX.

The gold price appears to be targeting the $1300 level as we head into month end on Monday. Since the miners have been outperforming the gold price and trending higher during the past few months, they may be signaling this critical support level in bullion will hold before finally breaking out above long-term resistance at $1365 very soon.

http://juniorminerjunky.com/

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Gold COT Report - Rally looks set to ROLL - as Large Specs start buying again !

Uv2KtGn.png

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Junior Gold Miners are coming into a major "Pinch point" - Watch for breakout over $34 (this week?)

GDXJ / Jr. Gold Miners ... 10-yr : 5-yr : 3-yrW3-yrD : 12-mos / 10d - Last: $33.55 +0.07 : pe: n/a , yield: 0.03% (12mos: $29.69 - 37.75)

S57joQx.gif

12-mos

1AXtkTz.gif

==

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LARRY PESAVENTO is a short term trader and a very good one

pic_LarryPesavento.jpg > Thu-MP3 : Fri-MP3 :

Larry said he "sold at a small profit" and still likes the set-up for Gold.

gold.gif

I think he sold above $1300.  (if so, he was/is able to repurchase at a lower price.)

He said he thought he would buy back in "soon", but did not want to stay long, while the EUR was so weak.

(Larry has a 24 hour beeper, and when the EUR strengthens at any time, he may jump back in; may have already.)

Let's see:

Here's EUR vs. GLD & GBS & HK-2480-Gold  ... 10d : 2mo :

RYgms0Q.gif

When the large 2%+ gap narrows, and/or when EUR starts climbing again on the 10d chart, I expect he will go long again.

Over 2 mos - you can see they clearly move together

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My own trading is not as short term as his, but I am looking for an entry point in buying some Gold shares

BTW. that yawning gap has meant that Gold-in-EUR and Silver-in-EUR is rising

8SqmuEe.png

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SIL / Global X Silver Miners ETF vs SLV / Silver etf

SIL vs SLV ... 2yr : 1yr : 6mo : From 12/6/17 ... SIL-$30.55 / SLV-$15.70

24xazLV.gif

Ratio : SIL -to-SLV is "stuck" near 2.0 (but could break out again): SIL-$30.55 / SLV-$15.70 = R 1.945

nEu2mdU.png

==

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SIL / Global X Silver Miners ETF

Weekly ... All : 10-yr : 5-yr : updated chart#2: 7/31/18: $27.73

8Y6XaW4.gif

Chart#2

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Fresnillo / FRES.L - World's Largest Silver Miner ... update :

i6TrYdl.gif

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STOCKS VS GOLD – A VICIOUS FALL COMING

The chart I am talking about is the stock market compared to gold. I will take the US market as the example but the ratio chart gold versus stocks could be applied to most stock markets in the world.

If we first look at the Dow/Gold chart since 1997, we find that it topped in July 1999 at 45. This means that one unit of the Dow bought 45 ounces of gold. It then crashed by 87% to 6 in 2011. Since then there has been a steady recovery to the 20 level. In technical terms that means a very normal 38% correction.

dow_gold_ratio-532x450.jpg

So 19 years after the Dow/Gold top in 1999, the stock market is still extremely weak measured in real terms or real money which is gold. And this is in spite of a major recovery in stocks since the 2009 bottom. This bodes ill for stocks. Whether the correction goes a bit higher than the 20 level is irrelevant. The chart shows that stocks have recovered in nominal terms due to massive money printing. But in real terms, stocks are in a long term downtrend since 1999 and this downtrend will soon resume with a vengeance.

DOW GOLD – FOUR CRASHES SINCE 1837: 70%, 90%, 96%, 87%

To understand the longer trend we need to look at a long term chart since 1800. The chart below shows that stocks have been in a long term uptrend against gold for 200 years.

dow_gold_large_chart-600x426.jpg

> http://www.investmentwatchblog.com/dow-gold-a-98-fall-next/

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Are we seeing Gold's cyclical Low? (this month? this week?)

GDXJ etc ... update :

image.png

Last Month, we were at a "pinch point", as I identified here -see below

======

Junior Gold Miners are coming into a major "Pinch point" - Watch for breakout over $34 (this week?)

GDXJ / Jr. Gold Miners ... 10-yr : 5-yr : 3-yrW3-yrD : 12-mos / 10d - Last: $33.55 +0.07 : pe: n/a , yield: 0.03% (12mos: $29.69 - 37.75)

S57joQx.gif

Update - GDXJ : 5yr chart : Last : $31.54 - 8/1/18 still looks like a pinchpoint forming to me !

PxNQSf4.gif

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GOLD etf's

GBS / GOLD Bullion Secs.: UK's Gold etf ... All-data :

aFBZhxB.gif

GLD - Log chart ... All-data :

QhxRweP.gif

HK-2840 / gold etf ... all :

RG0dMEZ.gif

==

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Gold still in downtrend (but threatening to improve) as the EUR begins to strengthen

EUR vs Gold etfs ... update :

G7zFVNi.gif

Gold-inEUR

y5m8pG2.png

GDX-inEUR

rA0DmaV.png

==

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Gold etfs - Is an important bottom in?

GLD ... all data :

2DfxUeJ.gif

GBS ... all data : Log :

4ycf0tP.gif

: Log :

Dcg6fRj.gif

==

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LONG Term & Thought-provoking; Excellent

"An inevitable return"?

The Fall Of The US Dollar: Is The Return To A Gold Standard Inevitable?

 

As the cycle goes on... an Increasing Supply of Bonds can Only be sold to the public... at INCREASING INTEREST RATES

(yeah, and increasing risk of default!)

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On 07/11/2018 at 9:58 AM, drbubb said:

LONG Term & Thought-provoking; Excellent

"An inevitable return"?

The Fall Of The US Dollar: Is The Return To A Gold Standard Inevitable?

 

As the cycle goes on... an Increasing Supply of Bonds can Only be sold to the public... at INCREASING INTEREST RATES

(yeah, and increasing risk of default!)

Excellent presentation

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Many Gold shares are "COILED & Ready to spring" - if the Dollar slides

idx24_usd_en_2.gif : t24_au_en_usoz_6.gif:

USD Index / DXY : $96.11 ..... : Gold : $1282.10

Group #1 : update JNUG ($9.21), UGLD ($95.41), GDXJ ($30.22)

xn9BL6H.gif

Group # 2: update : GCM.t ($2.82), CCO.t ($15.48), MUX.t ($2.50)

0heVxak.png

==

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