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GOLD SHARES / such as: GDX, GDXJ, CDNX etc.

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Silver, & Gold shares - a weaker pullback

SLV... update

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Pullbacks are getting more shallow, and with weaker volume. The last upmove could be a "kickoff"

... or just a dead-cat bounce - we will soon see which it is

Although the recent pattern in gold has become ugly, there should be a dead-cat bounce in the metal in the next couple of days. Gold has been in a consolidation pattern for months and once again the metal is coming down to the bottom end, which suggests a bounce.

Even if gold headed lower, which is expected, a healthy bounce to $1,330-$1,340 is in the cards. Gold has become very oversold the last four to five days, falling about 3% since hitting $1,360. The bounce should come from between $1,310-$1,315 and should be a fast, vicious rally that will come out of nowhere.

Silver is trading midrange, holding support above its most recent breakout level. Look for silver to remain strong and bounce with gold. We still like the long-silver, short-gold trade and will look to take advantage of the expected bounce in gold.

> http://www.kitco.com/commentaries/2018-04-27/Gold-Should-Bounce.html

/ 2 / GDX - Gold stocks ... update

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In late January, gold was trading at $1365 and while it corrected $55 in 2 weeks, the GDX lost over 16% during the same time span. It has been my contention the GDX made its final low on February 9th, just below critical support at the $21 level. The final spike low was made just a half hour before the session ended, then reversed over 2% on huge volume to un-changed on the day. Major over-sold spike lows, which usually occur during lengthy gold stock consolidations, have a habit of ending with a sharp sell-off and an intra-day reversal in the GDX on large volume. In hindsight, after the inevitable break-out of extended gold stock consolidations, these intra-day reversal moves can eventually turn out to be THE major low before an impulse move higher begins.

Moreover, with the new Q1 2018 earnings season getting underway, the two largest global gold producers, Barrick Gold (ABX) & Newmont Mining (NEM), issued their Q1 results this week and both have maintained their respective quarterly dividends. Barrick was in-line with analysts’ expectations, while the Newmont result was ahead of market expectations for around 33 cents per share, according to news reports. In fact, the NEM share price made a 52-week high close this month and is trending upwards towards a multi-year high close. Both of these major miners make up a combined 20% of the holdings in GDX.

The gold price appears to be targeting the $1300 level as we head into month end on Monday. Since the miners have been outperforming the gold price and trending higher during the past few months, they may be signaling this critical support level in bullion will hold before finally breaking out above long-term resistance at $1365 very soon.

http://juniorminerjunky.com/

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Gold COT Report - Rally looks set to ROLL - as Large Specs start buying again !

Uv2KtGn.png

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Junior Gold Miners are coming into a major "Pinch point" - Watch for breakout over $34 (this week?)

GDXJ / Jr. Gold Miners ... 10-yr : 5-yr : 3-yrW3-yrD : 12-mos / 10d - Last: $33.55 +0.07 : pe: n/a , yield: 0.03% (12mos: $29.69 - 37.75)

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12-mos

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==

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LARRY PESAVENTO is a short term trader and a very good one

pic_LarryPesavento.jpg > Thu-MP3 : Fri-MP3 :

Larry said he "sold at a small profit" and still likes the set-up for Gold.

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I think he sold above $1300.  (if so, he was/is able to repurchase at a lower price.)

He said he thought he would buy back in "soon", but did not want to stay long, while the EUR was so weak.

(Larry has a 24 hour beeper, and when the EUR strengthens at any time, he may jump back in; may have already.)

Let's see:

Here's EUR vs. GLD & GBS & HK-2480-Gold  ... 10d : 2mo :

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When the large 2%+ gap narrows, and/or when EUR starts climbing again on the 10d chart, I expect he will go long again.

Over 2 mos - you can see they clearly move together

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My own trading is not as short term as his, but I am looking for an entry point in buying some Gold shares

BTW. that yawning gap has meant that Gold-in-EUR and Silver-in-EUR is rising

8SqmuEe.png

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SIL / Global X Silver Miners ETF vs SLV / Silver etf

SIL vs SLV ... 2yr : 1yr : 6mo : From 12/6/17 ... SIL-$30.55 / SLV-$15.70

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Ratio : SIL -to-SLV is "stuck" near 2.0 (but could break out again): SIL-$30.55 / SLV-$15.70 = R 1.945

nEu2mdU.png

==

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SIL / Global X Silver Miners ETF

Weekly ... All : 10-yr : 5-yr : updated chart#2: 7/31/18: $27.73

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Chart#2

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Fresnillo / FRES.L - World's Largest Silver Miner ... update :

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STOCKS VS GOLD – A VICIOUS FALL COMING

The chart I am talking about is the stock market compared to gold. I will take the US market as the example but the ratio chart gold versus stocks could be applied to most stock markets in the world.

If we first look at the Dow/Gold chart since 1997, we find that it topped in July 1999 at 45. This means that one unit of the Dow bought 45 ounces of gold. It then crashed by 87% to 6 in 2011. Since then there has been a steady recovery to the 20 level. In technical terms that means a very normal 38% correction.

dow_gold_ratio-532x450.jpg

So 19 years after the Dow/Gold top in 1999, the stock market is still extremely weak measured in real terms or real money which is gold. And this is in spite of a major recovery in stocks since the 2009 bottom. This bodes ill for stocks. Whether the correction goes a bit higher than the 20 level is irrelevant. The chart shows that stocks have recovered in nominal terms due to massive money printing. But in real terms, stocks are in a long term downtrend since 1999 and this downtrend will soon resume with a vengeance.

DOW GOLD – FOUR CRASHES SINCE 1837: 70%, 90%, 96%, 87%

To understand the longer trend we need to look at a long term chart since 1800. The chart below shows that stocks have been in a long term uptrend against gold for 200 years.

dow_gold_large_chart-600x426.jpg

> http://www.investmentwatchblog.com/dow-gold-a-98-fall-next/

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Are we seeing Gold's cyclical Low? (this month? this week?)

GDXJ etc ... update :

image.png

Last Month, we were at a "pinch point", as I identified here -see below

======

Junior Gold Miners are coming into a major "Pinch point" - Watch for breakout over $34 (this week?)

GDXJ / Jr. Gold Miners ... 10-yr : 5-yr : 3-yrW3-yrD : 12-mos / 10d - Last: $33.55 +0.07 : pe: n/a , yield: 0.03% (12mos: $29.69 - 37.75)

S57joQx.gif

Update - GDXJ : 5yr chart : Last : $31.54 - 8/1/18 still looks like a pinchpoint forming to me !

PxNQSf4.gif

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GOLD etf's

GBS / GOLD Bullion Secs.: UK's Gold etf ... All-data :

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GLD - Log chart ... All-data :

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HK-2840 / gold etf ... all :

RG0dMEZ.gif

==

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Gold still in downtrend (but threatening to improve) as the EUR begins to strengthen

EUR vs Gold etfs ... update :

G7zFVNi.gif

Gold-inEUR

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GDX-inEUR

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==

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Gold etfs - Is an important bottom in?

GLD ... all data :

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GBS ... all data : Log :

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: Log :

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==

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LONG Term & Thought-provoking; Excellent

"An inevitable return"?

The Fall Of The US Dollar: Is The Return To A Gold Standard Inevitable?

 

As the cycle goes on... an Increasing Supply of Bonds can Only be sold to the public... at INCREASING INTEREST RATES

(yeah, and increasing risk of default!)

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On 07/11/2018 at 9:58 AM, drbubb said:

LONG Term & Thought-provoking; Excellent

"An inevitable return"?

The Fall Of The US Dollar: Is The Return To A Gold Standard Inevitable?

 

As the cycle goes on... an Increasing Supply of Bonds can Only be sold to the public... at INCREASING INTEREST RATES

(yeah, and increasing risk of default!)

Excellent presentation

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Many Gold shares are "COILED & Ready to spring" - if the Dollar slides

idx24_usd_en_2.gif : t24_au_en_usoz_6.gif:

USD Index / DXY : $96.11 ..... : Gold : $1282.10

Group #1 : update JNUG ($9.21), UGLD ($95.41), GDXJ ($30.22)

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Group # 2: update : GCM.t ($2.82), CCO.t ($15.48), MUX.t ($2.50)

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==

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Gold has broken the downtrend & Resistance at $1300

Might SIL (silver share etf) be next  to breakout?

GLD (gold etf) versus SIL ... update : $123.37, $26.13

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Ratio: $26.13 / $123.37 = 21.2

z0bQvUs.png

==

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SLV looks likely to retest $14. SIL to retest $25.50-25.70?

SLV / Silver etf ... update : 6mo : $14.24 -$0.27, -1.86% vol. 7.57M, Yield: n/a, PER: n/a

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SIL vs SLV/ Silver Shares vs. Silver ... update : 6mo : $26.28 -$0.59, -2.20% vol. 164.5k, Yield: 1.16%, PER: n/a

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Ratio: SIL to-SLV : $26.28 / $14.24 = R-1.00?

S065XhL.png

==

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Is the Dollar Done?  And rolling over?

DXY ... 2-years: UUP/ Last: $95.92 breaks an uptrend line

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Silver share may be about to break upwards

Silver: SIL vs. SLV ... update : w/GDXJ :

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==

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"A 61.8% retracement would be $29.43"

GDXJ . Junior Gold shares ... update / Last: $29.57 -0.61 / Day's H: $30.29 - L: $29.47 vol. 20.0M

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SIL... update: Last:

Ik64WDP.png

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Make Silver shares great again - with MAG & other Silver stocks

MAG Silver .... update / Last: $10.17 +0.84, +9.00%

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SIL / etf for Silver shares ... update / Last: $24.76 +$0.72, +3.00%  / SLV: $14.10 +0.71%

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Ratio: SIL -to-SLV : xx

7Eu7Mgt.png

ZYiR6Te.png

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PZG? Here's an update

Presentation : Slideshow-Q2.2019

=====/

MktCap: US$ 23.6M / Debt: $0M? + Capital Needed: $ 110M ?/ with x year payback at $1500/oz

PZG / Paramount Gold Nevada Corp. (ASE) ... update : 12mo : w/gdxj & gld / Last: $0.89 on AMEX

6caZXiV.gif

===

 

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TOO MANY PEOPLE in the Gold Trade?

Steve Rhodes thinks so

Trade What You See 09-11-19

> https://www.listennotes.com/podcasts/trade-what-you-see/trade-what-you-see-09-11-19-0PFciKDpg2e/

"Break of $1508, suggests a change in trend is underway

"Gold may pullback to $1412 (Dec.Gold) ... in the next 1-2 weeks,

And maybe $1286 by (something like) Jan-Feb."

"If THAT happens, people will HATE Gold, setting up a great Buy."

pyFSeie.png

==

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MIND the CYCLE ... in SILVER

SLV is the etf for Silver (which closed at $16.46) / $15.53 = 106% -> about $1.00 difference

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Anyone see a cycle here? (haha)

Silver, & silver shares ... still in an uptrend / update ::  SIL ($27.23) /$15.53 = R-175%

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Ratio: 175%= SIL ($27.23) /$15.53 ... was recently above 200%

w2uCarD.png

==

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IF/when GLD/Gold Jumps the creek at $160 (soon?),

then something wonderful ...

GLD / All... Last: $155.17, +$2.52, +1.65%

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"Something Wonderful" will be Gold stocks "rediscovering" their Bull market

GDXJ / All... Last: $31.83, +$2.12, +7.14%

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Gold stocks are cheap.  They got knocked down with stocks-in-general,  but for those miners who can keep their mines open, they are enjoying a high price for their production. Maybe the highest price ever within this year.  And ultra low Energy prices.  But the crowd goes on dozing. ZZZ-ZZZ-ZZZ

GDXJ-to$Gold Ratio

UwDoomv.png

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Here come the wild forecasts (as Gold battles $1700).  Is Gold therefore peaking?

Frank Holmes: Gold Is Going to $10,000

The Gold Report: Frank, you've said you expect gold to reach $10,000/oz. Can you tell us about your prediction...

When you realize the magnitude of it, it's very easy to see gold go up as the real asset. It's a very rational argument. The last time we saw gold go in a cycle like this, it went from $275 up to $700, then ratcheted back, and then went to $1,900. You can easily get a fivefold increase in the price of gold.

And that's where I said gold could reach $10,000, because the supply of gold is not increasing the way money supply is being increased, and GDP per capita is increasing in China and India, which together constitute 40% of the world's population—and which love gold for love and gift giving.

After I came out with the $10,000 gold prediction, I got topped by the great Pierre Lassonde, chairman of Franco-Nevada Corp. (FNV:TSX; FNV:NYSE). At the Denver Gold Forum he said that he's looked at gold in the past 30 years, how much it's gone up, who were the biggest gold producers 30 years ago, who they are today, the total supply, etc. And he said for the next 30 years, gold could easily be $25,000 on the upside, minimum $5,000. It could happen earlier. So I think now that $10,000 is a very reasonable and rational argument.

TGR: Do you see silver and platinum group elements moving in lockstep with gold?

FH: Palladium has had a bigger move for very sound reasons, and that is supply side is restricted. The biggest producer is Russia. And for catalytic converters, the demand remains strong, even though car sales have slowed down. We're only using platinum. So I think with platinum and palladium, one has to take a look at the supply side. When the trade war finally gets settled, and the Purchasing Managers' Index, which is forward looking, turns positive—where the last month is above three months—then I think that platinum and palladium will rise even more so.

But I think silver is the special one. I just love silver. Silver's the best gift to give to your children, your grandchildren. Unlike toys and video games, if you get them silver, they always keep it. I think it's inexpensive. The DNA of the volatility of silver is basically 50% greater. So if gold goes up 10%, you can expect silver to go up 15%.

FH: I had become frustrated in seeing in the gold market the way the stocks were acting, and so we started applying our quant approach. We used 100 different factors. We spent over 8,000 hours digging to try to understand it. What we noticed is there are some macro forces that all investors should realize. Of all these factors you look at, some are good for screening stocks, others are very good for picking stocks.

And I noticed that they like royalty companies, and so do I. And I've always advocated to your readership Franco-Nevada Corp. (FNV:TSX; FNV:NYSE), Wheaton Precious Metals Corp. (WPM:TSX; WPM:NYSE) and Royal Gold Inc. (RGLD:NASDAQ; RGL:TSX) because they have a superior business model that has lower volatility in revenue, cash flow and earnings, and royalty companies have the highest revenue per employee of any industry group on the NYSE.

 
$20,000 gold price: Franco Nevada chairman makes the case
==
Current prices are already great for miners
Q2 - likely to be a "blowout" Quarter for miners. since Gold is over $1600, and the drop in mine production is likely to be temporary
 
With Oil at $25 a barrel, that's like a 10% cut in Op Ex
We have already seen two mergers

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