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GOLD SHARES / such as: GDX, GDXJ, CDNX etc.

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Precious metals shares took a hit, while Gold climbed slightly higher

GDXJ : - 5.9%, SIL : -5.7%, GDX : -3.8%, Gold: $1289.1 + 0..05%

WTI Crude down - 6.7%, BTX up +6.45%

 

Price : (06/26) (12/31) (04/01) Chg %: (07/01) : (09/30) : (12/30) / (01/27) (02/24) (03/31) : (04/07) (04/14) : (04/21) :
Gold : 1173.8 : 1060.5 : 1223.2 === >: 1344.9 : 1317.1 : 1151.7 / 1188.4 : 1258.3 : 1251.2 : 1257.3 : 1288.5 : 1289.1 :
GLD : 112.56 : 101.46 : 116.93 ----- z : 128.41 : 125.64 : 109.61 / 113.49 : 119.70 : 118.72 : 119.46 : 122.60 : 122.31 :
GDX : $18.09 : $13.72 : $20.12 ----- z : $29.05 : $26.43 : $20.95 / $23.22 : $24.13 : $22.81 : $23.50 : $24.54 : $23.61 :
Ratio: R6.222: R7.395 : R5.811 ----- z : R4.420 : R4.754 : r5.232 / R4.888 : r4.961 : r5.205 : R5.083 : r4.996 : r5.180 (/10.54)
Ratio 16.07%: 13.52%: 17.21% ----- z : 22.62%: 21.04%: 19.11%/ 20.45% 20.16%: 19.21%: 19.67%: 20.02%: 19.30% (GDx54.6 )
Gdxj : $24.86 : $19.21 : $28.40: ----- z: $45.38 : $44.29 : $31.55 / $36.87 : $40.09 : $35.98 : $36.56 : $36.70 : $34.54 :
Spdr : 706. E : 642.37 : 815.est ----- z : 953.91 : 947.95 : 822.17 / 803.0E : 841.17 : 834.EE : 836.49 : 848.92 : 848.92 = 27.29m
Au/S : R-1.66 : R-1.65 : R- 1.52 ----- z : R-1.41 : R-1.39 : r1.401 / R1.48E: R1.496 : R1.50E : R1.503 : R1.52 : R1.519 :
TLT - : 115.23 : 120.58 : 130.68 ----- z : 140.57 : 137.51 : 119.13 / 119.63 : 122.01 : 120.71 : 120.71 : 123.47 : 123.54 :
G/Tlt : R10.19 : r8.795 : R9.404 ----- z : R9.567: R9.578 : R9.668/ R9.993 : R10.26: R10.37 : R10.42 : R10.44 : R10.43 vs L: 8.65
====
AGS : Y3,409 : y3,210 : y3,367 ----- z : y4,157 : y4,209 : y3,988 / y3,943 : y4,167 : y4,124 : y4,199 : y4,212 : y4,134 : 17.86 :
SLV- : $15.11 : $13.19 : $14.34 ----- z : $18.74 : $18.20 : $15.11 / $16.22 : $17.40 : $17.25 : $17.03 : $17.53 : $17.02 :
SLW-: $15.11 : $12.42 : $16.40 ----- z: $24.78 : $27.30 : $19.32 / $21.42 : $21.15 : $20.84 : $20.94 : $21.84 : $21.09 :
SIL*- : $26.43 : $18.51 : $26.50 ----- z : $45.95 : $44.48 : $32.11 / $37.36 : $38.28 : $36.02 : $36.92 : $38.09 : $35.93 :
DBA : $22.71 : $20.61 : $20.50 ----- z : $21.98 : $19.98 : $19.97 / $20.57 : $20.29 : $19.78 : $19.58 : $19.70 : $19.29 :
XLE- : $76.08 : $60.32 : $61.06 ----- z : $68.60 : $70.61 : $75.32 / $74.23 : $70.99 : $69.90 : $70.36 : $69.31 : $67.79 :
Cop'r: $2.641 : $2.135 : $2.170 ----- z : $2.220 : $2.210 : $2.510 / $2.690 : $2.700 : $2.652 : $2.647 : $2.570 : $2.540 :
WTI- : $59.65 : $37.07 : $36.36 ----- z : $49.28 : $48.24 : $53.72 / $53.17 : $53.99 : $50.30 : $52.24 : $53.18 : $49.62 :
CRB : 224.90 : 176.27 : 168.03 ----- z : 194.26 : 186.30 : 192.51 / 193.43 : 190.93 : 185.88 : 187.11 : 187.77 : 181.87 :
Corn : 385.00: 358.00 : 353.50 ----- z : 360.25 : 336.30 : 352.00 / 362.50 : 370.75 : 364.40 : 359.50 : 371.00 : 363.75 :
Wheat 575.00: 468.50 : 474.00 ----- z : 496.25 : 402.00 : 408.00 / 420.50 : 448.00 : 426.50 : 424.00 : 429.75 : 421.00 :
Sugar 11.92c : 15.24c : 15.18C ----- z : 20.78C : 23.00c : 19.51c / 20.33c : 19.81c : 16.76c : 16.77c : 16.70c : 16.41c :
BTC : 250.00 : $433.5 : $420.0 ----- z : $680.0 : $604.5 : $948.5 / $920.0 : 1135.0 : 1041.1 : 1188.7 : 1170.0 : 1245.5 :
B/G.: 21.30% : 40.88%: 34.34% ----- z: 50.56%: 45.90%: 82.36%/ 77.42%: 84.81%: 83.20% : 94.54% : 90.80% : 96.62% :
=====
EEM- : $39.93 : $32.19 : $34.15 ----- z : $34.69 : $37.45 : $35.01 / $37.47 : $38.48 : $39.39 : $39.37 : $39.14 : $39.29 :
FXI -- : $46.21 : $35.29 : $33.58 ----- z : $34.48 : $38.01 : $34.71 / $36.82 : $38.54 : $38.49 : $38.74 : $38.26 : $37.96 :
ShCm : 4192.9: 3519.2 : 3009.5 ----- z : 2932.5 : 3004.7 : 3103.6 / 3159.2 : 3253.4 : 3222.5 : 3286.6 : 3207.8 : 3126.8 :
PHM- : $20.48 : $17.82 : $18.42 ----- z: $19.48 : $20.04 : $18.38 / $21.26 : $21.73 : $23.55 : $23.28 : $23.71 : $23.32 :
IYR -- : $72.49 : $75.08 : $77.91 ----- z : $82.33 : $80.64 : $76.94/ $76.97 : $80.31 : $78.49 : $79.14 : $79.79 : $80.58 :
IWM - : 127.50 : 112.62 : 111.12 ----- z : 115.39 : 124.21 : 134.85 / 136.19 : 138.65 : 137.48 : 135.52 : 133.72 : 137.21 :
XLF - : $24.89 : $23.82 : $22.70 ----- z : $22.74 : $19.30 : $23.25 / $23.65 : $24.42 : $23.73 : $23.52 : $22.90 : $23.16 :
XLF/S: 11.86%: 11.68% 10.97% ----- z : 10.83% V8.92% :10.31% / 10.33%: 10.31%: 10.47%: 10.00%: 9.849% : 9.87% :
SPY- : 209.82 : 203.87 : 206.92: ----- z : 209.92 : 216.30 : 223.53 / 228.97 : 236.74 : 235.74 : 235.20 : 232.51 : 234.59 :
VIX-- : 14.02%: 18.21% 13.10%: ----- z :14.77%: 13.29%: 14.04% / 10.58%: 11.47% 10.96%: 12.87% : 15.96%: 14.63%:
ShPut $06.15 : $6.670: $05.00: ----- z : $02.85 : /Sp210: $08.30 / $20.00 : $14.95 : $13.15 : $13.52 : $16.10 : $13.49 Ja$240p
DXY - : 95.399 : 98.693 : 94.608 ----- z : 95.720 : $95.42 : 102.38 / 100.56 : $99.77 : 100.22 : 101.13 : 100.46 : $99.75 :
H-gold: r12.30 : R10.75 : r12.93 ----- z : R14.05: R13.80 : R11.25 / R11.82: R12.26: R12.56 : R12.37 : R12.83 : R12.92 / 11.3-14.2
=====
Gold : 1173.8 : 1060.5 : 1223.2 === > : 1344.9 : 1317.1 : 1151.7 / 1188.4 : 1258.3 : 1251.2 : 1257.3 : 1288.5 : 1289.1 :
======

 

This chart shows me that GDXJ (Junior Gold shares) may be headed into a Buy window

Gold-toGDXJ-65pct_zpsditg3e8d.png

 

Support looks strong at GDXJ-$32.50 - and it should be a good Buy there if Gold holds up.

You might also Buy GDXJ calls and Buy Gold puts, or use GDXJ as a replacement for Gold holdings.

It all depends on how Bullish you are - but this window looks interesting to me/

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GOLD and Bitcoins - will prices touch (or overlap) again soon?

BTX at 98% today... looks like the 4-6 months cycle for Gold is rolling over

 

Gold : $1277.5 ... GLD : 2-yr : 10d

gold_zpsqglp9eso.png

 

Bitcoins : $1253 (98.1% of Gold)

BTC-5mo_zpszl3tby90.png

 

I think both will drop, before heading higher.

The fundamental reason may be: Rising interest rates / Falling bond prices

 

TMF at $19.86 "and falling" as LT rates rise

The rise in TMF (3x Bull-on-Bonds) may be over ... 2yr : 10d-chart :

TMF-2yr_zpsyrq777tu.gif

 

Rising interest rates, may turnaround the falling dollar, and "put the Kabash" on the rise in Gold and Bitcoins

These prices move together : TMF, GDX, UGLD, SLV : Bonds, Gold stocks, Gold, and Silver.

And they have been moving in a shared 4-6 months cycle:

 

TMF -etc. ... 2-yrs : 5-yrs :

TMF-etc3_zpstrspmtlw.gif

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Tony C on Gold (& silver?) : A "C" high is likely in place

 

Silver is at a critical point too.

If SLV breaks yesterday's low (near $15.50), it may decline quickly, and could even retest the $xx Lows

 

SLV / Silver etf ... update

slv_zpshievegnr.gif

=====

Tony,
On the daily gold chart, what would be the prerequisite to update April gold high as a C wave?
Thank you,

 

It’s Patrick’s chart, but I’d give it a tentative C

That’s what I’m thinking, too. Gold has to smash up furiously or its done.
Thank you, Tony.

==

> https://caldaro.wordpress.com/2017/05/03/wednesday-update-594/

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Junior Gold Miners (GDXJ) - Can we see the Low just ahead?

 

GDXJ ... All-data-Log : 5yrL : 3yrL : 6mos / 10d / Last: $30.27 arrow_up_sm.gif +0.62; PE : n/a; yield: 4.88%

All

GDXJ_zpslskpbct1.gif

3yrL -2yr vs.AG-etc

GDXJ-3yrL_zpsgbecjqr0.gif

 

Interesting interview!

Formula-driven trading, is creating opportunities in GDXJ, AG, FM.t, etc

 

GDXJ MASSACRE: Forced Selling Creating EPIC Opportunities -- Eric Sprott & Keith Neumeyer

Published on May 7, 2017

The demand for junior precious metals mining company stocks is soaring, and as a result VanEck's GDXJ is being forced by stringent regulations into rebalancing - forced selling to reduce positions that have become too large, which is creating tremendous opportunities. As Eric Sprott says, "There's too much interest. Isn't the the funny thing? There's so much interest that the stocks are going down! It's the most ironic situation that we've ever been in, but there will just be new vehicles created. " Keith Neumeyer & Eric Sprott join me to discuss this, the precious metals manipulation, the problems at the LBMA and much more.

 

I met Mr Neumeyer here in HK last year, and he told me about formula-driven selling of his company's stock (AG.)

I wound up buying some AG shares, and made some money - but it was a bit of a wild ride.

 

"It's cheaper to Drill for Gold now, than buy producing assets."

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Gold's 4-6 months Cycle:

 

The next cycle Low is due any day now /or overdue - and may have come already in early May.

 

GLD: update: end-may: $116.06 +0.44/ UK:GBS: $115.50/ HK-2840: $ 898.5 /7.76= $115.80 : HK-3081: $29.35 r-30.61

GLD.gif : ImgHst.co

 

The longer history of the cycles looked like this: 2013-15 :

 

: Low, Dec.15th,2016: 1129.8 / $103.04 = 10.96 / intraday: 1123/$103= 10.90
Gold-toUSD_zp.png

 

Look what happened after that Dec.2015 Low - a Nice Rally ! And then once again after a Dec. 2016 Low:Gold-toUSD.png

 

In April'17, I said: The Rally "may be petering out in April, and Gold (gold shares and silver), turned lower with bonds."

I anticipated this - and went short, selling Gold positions, and buying puts on TMF, a 3X etf linked to Bond prices.

But this anticipated cyclical low (May/June) either came early, or is coming late - It does not look as distinct (yet!) as prior lows.

So I am relunctant to bet on the Low and Buy at this stage.

 

TMF - this chart was from mid-April

"Rising interest rates, may turnaround the falling dollar, and "put the Kabash" on the rise in Gold..."

These prices tend to move together : TMF, GDX, UGLD, SLV : Bonds, Gold stocks, Gold, and Silver.

And they have been moving in a shared 4-6 months cycle - but this latest dip in Gold has not been accompanied by TMF until this week

 

TMF... 2-yrs : 5-yrs : 6-mos / 10-d :

Gold-toUSD.png :

TMF HAS finally dropped - & with it Bonds, Gold, Gold shares, silver...

TMY is approximately about 9% lower, over just four days

TMF-10d ... update

: TMF at $20.00 and Looking for a cyclical Low possibly, Since the Gold low is due, or overdue.

TMF-10d.gif : ImgHst.co

 

But the other prices have fallen less. And there is some possibility these prices are beginning to decouple.

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The US Dollar may be very near Key Support - if it breaks, Gold may soar

 

DXY / Trade-weighted US Dollar ... update

 

dgCKSMi.gif

 

GLD - Gold's etf ... all data -- threatening to break the downtrend, as the USD is weak

HqfpJGA.gif

=

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GOLD : I'm not impressed !

 

I think we saw a cyclical Low at the beginning of July, but I 'm not impressed by the volume or the Size of the Rally in GLD or GDX

 

Gold-in-Euros - has gone virtually "nowhere"

t0En9bA.png

 

GLD
GpsOIEB.png

 

GDX

D1qARzi.gif

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Seasonal Cycle

 

Nice action in GDX and GDXJ over the last week or so.

 

Yes, MORE impressive.

 

Perhaps the prior weakness (see "I'm not impressed") was mainly seasonal.

 

We are now in the strong season for Gold

I can see GLD running to $130 or higher over the next 4-5 weeks

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INDU to Gold still in Long term Slide?

 

Hmm if gold clears $1400, then that's a 2 year new high. North Korea's H-bomb detonation today could be the catalyst. This could be the end of the stock bull run, and a resumption of the dow/gold run to 1-1 ratio.

 

Untitled.png

 

11111.png

update

7JuA75b.png

==

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UK-listed Gold stocks

 

Gold in-USD -------------------- : --- Gold in-GBP ------------- : --- Gold in-EUR -------------- :

t24_au_en_usoz_6.gif : t24_au_en_bpoz_2.gif: t24_au_en_euoz_2.gif :

 

gold.gif?0.19148460480133556

 

GBS.L / Gold Bullion securities - in US$ ... 2008-'17 : 2004-'17 : All-data : 3-yrs : 6-mos / 10-d : mhpc :

P12fzhd.gif

 

... but that etf is in USD, here's the GBP etf

 

PHGP.L / Metal Securities Ltd. ETFS Physical Gold GBP - in GBP ... 2008-'17 : All-data : 3-yrs : 6-mos / 10-d

1xeqZzg.gif

 

I updated the charts in the header.

I like the way that Gold-in GBP charts !

UK-Listed Gold stocks > http://www.greenenergyinvestors.com/index.php?showtopic=20468

 

 

Also, I had forgotten that GBS.L has a longer history than GLD

 

GBS.L / Gold Bullion securities - in US$ ... 2008-'17 : 2004-'17 > GLD : All-data :

ngxaTgd.gif

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China, Inflation & Gold

 

China is a relatively open economy; therefore it is subject to the impossible trinity. China has also been attempting to do the impossible in recent years with predictable results.

Beginning in 2008 China pegged its exchange rate to the U.S. dollar. China also had an open capital account to allow the free exchange of yuan for dollars, and China preferred an independent monetary policy.

The problem is that the Impossible Trinity says you can’t have all three. This model has been validated several times since 2008 as China has stumbled through a series of currency and monetary reversals.

For example, China’s attempted the impossible beginning in 2008 with a peg to the dollar around 6.80. This ended abruptly in June 2010 when China broke the currency peg and allowed it to rise from 6.82 to 6.05 by January 2014 — a 10% appreciation.

 

This exchange rate revaluation was partly in response to bitter complaints by U.S. Treasury Secretary Geithner about China’s “currency manipulation” through an artificially low peg to the dollar in the 2008 – 2010 period.

After 2013, China reversed course and pursued a steady devaluation of the yuan from 6.05 in January 2014 to 6.95 by December 2016. At the end of 2016, the Chinese yuan was back where it was when the U.S. was screaming “currency manipulation.”

Only now there was a new figure to point the finger at China. The new American critic was no longer the quiet Tim Geithner, but the bombastic Donald Trump.

Trump had threatened to label China a currency manipulator throughout his campaign from June 2015 to Election Day on November 8, 2016. Once Trump was elected, China engaged in a policy of currency war appeasement.

 

China actually propped up its currency with a soft peg. The trading range was especially tight in the first half of 2017, right around 6.85.

In contrast to the 2008 – 2010 peg, China avoided the impossible trinity this time by partially closing the capital account and by raising rates alongside the Fed, thereby abandoning its independent monetary policy.

. . .

The impact these two prior devaluations had on the exchange rate is shown in the chart below.

Yuan.png

 

Major moves in the dollar/yuan cross exchange rate (USD/CNY) have had powerful impacts on global markets. The August 2015 surprise yuan devaluation sent U.S. stocks reeling. Another slower devaluation did the same in early 2016. A stronger yuan in 2017 coincided with the Trump stock rally. A new devaluation is now underway and U.S. stocks may suffer again.

 

By mid-2017, the Trump administration was once again complaining about Chinese currency manipulation. This was partly in response to China’s failure to assist the United States in dealing with North Korea’s nuclear weapons development and missile testing programs.

For its part, China did not want a trade or currency war with the U.S. in advance of the National Congress of the Communist Party of China, which begins on October 18. President Xi Jinping was playing a delicate internal political game and did not want to rock the boat in international relations. China appeased the U.S. again by allowing the exchange rate to climb from 6.90 to 6.45 in the summer of 2017.

China escaped the impossible trinity in 2015 by devaluing their currency. China escaped the impossible trinity again in 2017 using a hat trick of partially closing the capital account, raising interest rates, and allowing the yuan to appreciate against the dollar thereby breaking the exchange rate peg.

The problem for China is that these solutions are all non-sustainable. China cannot keep the capital account closed without damaging badly needed capital inflows. Who will invest in China if you can’t get your money out?

China also cannot maintain high interest rates because the interest costs will bankrupt insolvent state owned enterprises and lead to an increase in unemployment, which is socially destabilizing.

China cannot maintain a strong yuan because that damages exports, hurts export-related jobs, and causes deflation to be imported through lower import prices. An artificially inflated currency also drains the foreign exchange reserves needed to maintain the peg.

Since the impossible trinity really is impossible in the long-run, and since China’s current solutions are non-sustainable, what can China do to solve its policy trilemma?

The most obvious course, and the one likely to be implemented, is a maxi-devaluation of the yuan to around the 7.95 level or lower.

This would stop capital outflows because those outflows are driven by devaluation fears. Once the devaluation happens, there is no longer any urgency about getting money out of China. In fact, new money should start to flow in to take advantage of much lower local currency prices.

There are early signs that this policy of devaluation is already being put into place. The yuan has dropped sharply in the past month from 6.45 to 6.62. This resembles the stealth devaluation of late 2015, but is somewhat more aggressive.

 

( A weaker Yuan should help Gold, until it becomes "too cheap", and that cheapness inspires a rally in the Chinese currency)


“With inflation still subdued it appears that the US is heading back to consistently positive real rates. All else being equal that presents a major headwind to the gold price,” he noted. “However, there are significant offsets that seem likely to counter that downward pressure over the next six to 12 months.”

Kendall believes the U.S. dollar pressure could continue as “global reserve managers are overweight USD.”

“The trend appears to be to diversify again. We don’t expect direct diversification into gold but a rotation out of USD into EUR and JPY would benefit gold indirectly,” he explained.

Likewise, “if medium term inflation expectations do start to rise then gold should perform better than longer-dated Treasuries,” he said.

Kendall even looked at retail demand from the two largest gold-consuming nations – India and China.

“Gold has been sustained above $1,200 for much of the past two years despite a recession in the Chinese jewellery industry and multiple policy challenges to the Indian market,” he wrote. “There are tentative signs of improving sales in the former, while a period of policy stability would definitely benefit the latter.”

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GDXJ / Junior Miners update : $32.39 -0.29 : - 0.89% at 10/25/17

 

1ytUGj5.gif

 

====
GDX- : $22.83 -0.12 : - 0.52% at 10/25/17
GDXJ : $32.39 -0.29 : - 0.89% at 10/25/17
NUGT : $30.43 -0.59 : - 1.90% at 10/25/17
JNUG : $15.80 -0.43 : - 2.65% at 10/25/17

Cycles

WX4tTQO.gif

 

NUGT / 3X Bull on Gold Miners ... update : $30.43:arrow_dn_sm.gif -0.59 at 10/25/17

MLqzKDa.gif

 

JNUG / 3X Bull on Junior Gold Miners ... update : $15.80 -0.43 : - 2.65% at 10/25/17

XN7SUpu.gif

 

GDXJ -to-GDX Ratio

VGWCNkU.png

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GO OR DIE Resistance Level for Precious Metals

 

SIL vs GLD ... update

 

8KWAdl8.gif

==

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Gold Is Not The Best Inflation Hedge, This Metal Is - Natixis

 

U2abECH.png

 

Neils-Christensen.jpg
Neils Christensen Wednesday November 22, 2017

(Kitco News) - With global growth and consumer price pressures expected to tick higher in the next few years, one international bank is trying to debunk the myth that gold is a good inflation hedge.

gold-coins-price-graphb.jpg

 

In a report Wednesday, analysts at Naxitis pushed back against the old adage that gold is seen as a traditional inflation hedge. Instead, they prefer a broad basket of commodities, with a focus on base metals and copper in particular.

“Within commodities, precious metals are actually one of the weakest vehicles for combating inflation,” the analysts said.

The report comes as the U.S. sees a modest rise in inflation after five months of stagnant growth. The analysts said that investors should start taking a more defensive positon to protect against rising price pressures.

“Eurozone growth is holding up, the US labor market continues to tighten, and oil has gained pace this year. All of this suggests some heightened potential for inflation to surge,” the analysts said. “By definition, investors cannot predict unexpected inflation that destroys portfolio value. Therefore, it may be prudent to allocate a portion of the portfolio to assets that can protect against this risk and perhaps even offer additional benefits.”

Crunching the numbers, Naxitis said that between 1991 and October of this year, a 1% rise in inflation showed that the S&P was the worst inflation hedge with a beta of 2.5; however, gold was only slightly better with a hedge of 5.2. At the top of the list was the energy sector, which had the highest beta at 28.2, and copper came in second at 18. The bank noted that a broad commodity index had a beta of 13.5 to a 1% rise in inflation.

“In a hot economy, demand for industrial metals is elevated as they constitute crucial inputs in construction and manufacturing,” the analysts said.

Within the gold market only about 14% of demand comes from industrial use mostly as a component in high-end electronics, said the bank. However for copper 65% of demand comes from electrical sector and 25% comes from construction demand.

While Natixis likes copper as the global economy heats up, they note that investors would probably do well with a broad-commodity index as this would hedge against sector specific and production risks.

However, the bank noted that a broad commodity index weighted with soft commodities and oil will not hedge against core inflation, the Federal Reserve preferred inflation measure, as it strips out volatile energy and food prices.

 

(But GOLD is now the Better Buy!)

 

Ratio: Gold-to-CU

HJm9SdN.png

 

Ratio: Gold-to-SPX

TtK5rqD.png

 

Ratio: Gold-to-WTI Crude oil

7l6ljmj.png

 

Ratio: GDXJ (Junior Gold shares) -toGOLD

8ZUOt5e.png

==

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Right time? Right Price?

 

SLV is the etf for Silver

 

SLV ... update

J5t0ZSx.gif

==

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Breakout!

 

SPX -to-Gold has broken out - above 200% - Last 212%

 

MOBPgcW.png

==

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