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GOLD SHARES / such as: GDX, GDXJ, CDNX etc.

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Doug Casey-Greater Depression Already Started


2011 - he was roght about junior co's being worthless


And not yet right about a bigger boom

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Gold stocks - Does this chart look familiar ?


HUI / Gold Bugs index ... all-data : 5-years : 2yrs-D : 6mos-D / GDX: 6mos-D : 10-d



Look below


Another writer predicting a Gold bottom


Amazing Opportunity In The Gold Sector
/ December 10, 2015 13:21

Despite widespread pessimism, apathy, and derision towards the sector, gold and gold stocks present an extremely rare opportunity. Gold stocks are on track to record 5 years of losses starting in 2011 with the $HUI gold bugs index plunging 84% percent from 2011 to 2015. Gold is on pace to put in a 3+ year bear market with 3 years of losses. But the utter destruction in this sector is what has created an awesome opportunity. The only question is the timing of when this can be capitalized on.

Stage 4 bear markets are what create massive opportunities for upside gains and new Stage 2 bull markets. A bear market causes investors to panic out of a sector. Selling begets more selling until finally the sector bottoms out as sellers become exhausted. After a bear market a Stage 1 base forms which is a period of disinterest in a sector as investors favor other sectors. The sector may remain “cheap” and drift sideways for a long period of time, from months to even years.


When enough investors come back into a sector to force a breakout of the Stage 1 base a new bull market is born. This is the most exciting and profitable time to enter into a position in a sector.

. . .

Gold stocks have had many false Stage 2 breakout attempts during their bear market. Most notable were 2 attempts during 2014 where gold stocks traded for multiple weeks above the 30-week moving average before falling back below it. Gold stocks have made 6 attempts since 2012 to move back above the 30-week moving average and each attempt has failed and produced another leg lower in the bear market.


One way to filter out false breakout attempts is to wait for a re-test of the moving average in order to confirm that the breakout higher is real. Waiting for this signal alone would have kept a trader out of the gold market and away from the damage of a Stage 4 bear market for the last few years.

After 5 years of a bear market and 6 failed breakout attempts, gold stocks are perhaps the most loathed they've ever been. But the reality is that a cyclical sector such as gold will never remain out of favor perpetually.


> http://www.kitco.com/commentaries/2015-12-10/Amazing-Opportunity-In-The-Gold-Sector.html

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Kitco Charts Show Gold Rallying In Most Currencies - Kitco News, Feb 3 2016 11:55AM


New York Federal Reserve President William Dudley chimed in on the greenback Wednesday, noting that continued dollar strength could have “significant consequences” on the U.S. economy.

However, gold has not only shined in U.S. dollar terms as it has managed to see strength in other currencies. Based on Kitco’s Gold-Currency Charts, gold priced in both “hard” and “other” currencies have all posted gains in the last 30 days. The Kitco charts provide gold prices in multiple currency terms, including the U.S. dollar, euro (EUR), Swiss franc, British pound sterling (GBP), Japanese yen (JPY) and Russian ruble (RUB), among other currencies.

Kitco’s data shows that gold priced in the ruble led the pack, up 15.3% since early January. Coming in second was gold priced in Mexican pesos rose 12.28% while gold in South African rand terms rose 9.48%, taking third place.

The harder currencies, albeit lower, also saw significant gains. Based on the charts, spot gold priced in U.S. dollars rose a little over 5% in the last 30 days, while gold/EUR and gold/JPY saw gains of 4.32% and 5.54%, respectively. Meanwhile, gold/GBP and in franc terms posted gains of 7.18% and 6.87%, respectively.


DXY ... update



The US Dollar (DXY) broke key support at around 98.5 on Wednesday, and may now test crucial support at 96.5.

There is equivalent resistance in GLD at $110.

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The Gold Cycle of 4-6 months suggests a Low in late March/ April ... update : See thread :



An unusual success :

On the last ytrading day of 2015, I bought 50x GLD March $103 calls at about $2.25
I sold the last 20 of these at about $17. That's 7.55X times what I paid for them.
This is an extraordinary gain on what were near ATM options.
I rarely expect to make more than 3-4x my investment on an Options trade.

But someone said to me earlier, let me know when you have another good trade. And I did signal it here, as I was doing it. So I ask people to remember this trade, the next time you want to criticize or laugh, because I have lost the premium I invested in an options trade. That happens fairly often - but the big profits like this one can more than redeem the losing trades.

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I'm still buying GDX/GDXJ.


GDX - Pull back to around the $27-28 mark at resistance. Accumulate on all $2 drops. Could go to $38 in short term-ish.

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IF BRAVE enough, Buy some Calls on Gold shares


Gold could break down here, or it might be a terrific buying opportunity.

It might be worth a gamble


GDX / Gold Mining etf ... Two years / 10-d




It could be breaking down - but maybe this is just the last gasp of Selling... after the Rate rise.


A Call option allows you to play this opportunity, with limited risk

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On Thursday, I bought Calls on GLD and NUGT

I am in profit (so far)


With the RISK of a retest of Lows, or even Lower Lows, Calls are the way to Play this Gold market, if you play on the Long side at all


POSSIBLE LOWER LOW, now that GDX-$20 has been breeched
New Miner Bull Threatened as Major GDX Support is Breached Friday December 16, 2016

It appears the miner divergence from gold this past month was a bull trap, as the sector collapsed after the expected Fed rate hike. However, the US Dollar surged higher as Fed chair Janet Yellen telegraphed three more probable rate hikes in 2017, as opposed to the expected two in her post Fed meeting speech. This was enough to run more sell stops in the gold price and take the miners down with it.

When the Fed promised three rate hikes this time last year, the gold price bottomed the next day as it was also sold hard into the final Fed meeting of 2016. However, the miners did not bottom until a month later after a brutal four year bear in which the GDX lost 85%.

What gives me pause on gold bottoming this time just after the final meeting this week, is the equity market breaking out of a two year consolidation as “risk on” is still in play here. The gold price looks very vulnerable now technically and could easily drop below $1000 oz before making a final low as early as Q1 next year.

As I have been mentioning in previous posts GDX ,the ETF for large cap miners, needs to hold the major weekly support level of 20 in order to sustain a technical bull market in the miners. The bull’s last chance would be a close today above 19.80 in the GDX. Given how severely oversold the sector is and sentiment being worse than this time last year, the miners do have a chance of reversing today and closing above this level. The big money shorts have made a killing and could begin taking profits before many begin heading off to the Hamptons for the holidays. However, this bounce eventually needs to exceed the 22.50 area rather quickly in order to give me confidence of a chance at a firm bottom here.

We could also have more US Election drama on Monday as Senate Democrat Nancy Pelosi’s daughter and Clinton campaign manager John Podesta are backing an effort to get electors to ignore the election and vote for Hillary Clinton. This could also spark a short covering rally in the sector as the “Russia rigged the election” rhetoric has been dialed up heading into the US Electoral College decision on December 19th. I realize I am reaching here, as are the Democrats, but it is worth mentioning as a possible sector catalyst none the less.

If the GDX is not able to close today above the 19.80 level, look for the last gap at the 15.50 area to possibly fill as the next level of support. This weekly breach may also set up the very real possibility of an eventual round trip back to January lows and even a chance for a lower low in the mining sector.


> http://www.kitco.com/commentaries/2016-12-16/New-Miner-Bull-Threatened-as-Major-GDX-Support-is-Breached.html

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DOW to GOLD Ratio

200 Years


Since 1928 (to 2009)


since 1910 (to 2015), Log scale ... w/ fewer lines



Three Years : Dec. 2013 to Dec. 2016




GLD / Gold : 5-yrs : 3-yrs : 2-yrs : 12-mos / 10d // Last: $107.93 : Gold: $1133.6

GLD-5yrs_zpsmrijtxxe.gif :

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First Time Ever In The History Of The Gold Market
The technicals in the gold market never been set up better than they are now for a contrarian move higher. On the assumption that gold closes on Friday lower for the week than last week, it will mark seven straight weeks in which gold has closed lower on a weekly basis (this just happened). This has never happened before.




GLD / Gold ... 12-mos : 2-yrs :



> source: http://kingworldnews.com/this-is-the-first-time-in-history-this-has-happened-in-the-gold-market/

Strongest Gold "Buy" Signal In 16 Years - SoT #132


Question: Bill: Re: yesterday’s reader’s comment: “Bulls typically don’t retrace 100% of a move which we are close to doing,”

We do in fact have two precedents for such behavior in the current bull market. 1999-2001 was a full retrace at the $250+ level, with an interim high of $320+ in the interim. And of course, 2007-2008 looped from the mid $600s through the mid-$900s and back again. Both times, the near-100% pullbacks were followed by bull surges that almost tripled the gold price 3-5 years later. Meanwhile, the Gold Miner’s Bullish Percent Index has ranged from 100% in July to 7% in November. Despite further declines in the gold price, it’s presently sitting around 11%. I know negative sentiment doesn’t confirm a bottom in itself, but I just wanted to offer some words that I hope are encouraging to a fellow Rap reader.

Answer from Fleck: OK, thanks. Lots of extremely lopsided data points showing up now.”

> http://kingworldnews.com/with-gold-plunging-for-7-straight-weeks/

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Have I called The Gold Low? Maybe. Let us see what happens as we move into 2017.



IF BRAVE enough, Buy some Calls on Gold shares


Gold could break down here, or it might be a terrific buying opportunity.

It might be worth a gamble


GDX / Gold Mining etf ... Two years / 10-d




It could be breaking down - but maybe this is just the last gasp of Selling... after the Rate rise.


A Call option allows you to play this opportunity, with limited risk


I bought the next day (see #1 Low), and got some good prices on NUGT Calls (Feb.$4 at $2.20 and $2.05), and GLD Calls (Jan.2018)

But I missed a great chance to add to my positions a few days later (#2 Low) when the first Low was retested on lower volume, a bullish sign


GDX - 2 months ... update



GDX- vs. UGLD and GDXJ - 10 days ... update



# : Date & Day : GLD- : -chg. - low - high : Ugld : -chg. -low- high : GDX : -chg. - low- high: Gdxj -: -chg. - low- high : Nugt, low - high
1 : 12/15, THU : 107.34 - 1.39: 107.0-108.0: $7.88 -0.35: $7.79-7.96: 18.99 - 0.90: 18.68-19.35: 30.32 - 1.74: 29.99-31.39: 5.93, 5.55-6.22
2 : 12/20, TUE : 107.79 - 0.80: 107.3-108.0: $7.97 -0.17: $7.82-8.00: 19.13 +0.05: 18.58-19.18: 28.51 + 0.08: 27.37-29.63: 6.01, 5.51-6.07

The Larger picture is a retest of the 12/15 Low on 12/20, but with less Volume.

At the same time, there were multiple non-confirmations:


+ Only GDXJ made a substantially Lower Low (27.37), compared with 12/15 (31.39) - that's -12.8% Lower,
+ GDX made a slightly Lower Low (18.58), just -0.54% lower than 12/15's low of $18.68,
+ GLD made a slight HIGHER low, and UGLD did too.

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Well done.

The market gave us a great set-up and a sort of Christmas gift, I hope people took some advantage of it


NUGT has a terrific day on Thursday: up $1.53, that's +21.5% > $8.64

GDX was up $1.58, that's +7.81% > to $21.82

At these prices: GDX / Nugt = ratio: 2.53.

Since Nugt has 3X gearing, it should start showing larger daily gains than GDX

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2016 Marks End To Gold’s Bear Market; More Work To Be Done - Analysts By Neils Christensen of Kitco News
Friday December 30, 2016
Estimated AVERAGE GOLD Price for 2017 : $1,300

(Kitco News) - Not only is gold ending its longest weekly losing streak in more than a decade, but it is seeing its first positive yearly gains since 2012.



February Comex gold futures last traded at $1,157.10 an ounce, up 2.2% since last week. This week, gold has benefited from a correction in the U.S. dollar, which has backed down from its recent 13-year highs.

Silver is also seeing a positive week and a solid end to 2016. March Comex silver futures last traded at $16.085 an ounce, 2% on the week and up more than 17% on the year.

Some analysts warn that the latest gains in the precious metals markets could be skewed as a result of thin holiday markets as the precious metal sees its best performance since before the U.S. election; however, some are still calling the latest price action a victory as gold ends the year with gains of more than 9% -- albeit a shallow victory has gold did see gains of more than 30% in the first half of the year. To say the least, 2016 has been a rollercoaster year for gold prices.

However, some analysts are not ready to give up on gold just yet as January and the first quarter is traditionally the strongest period for the yellow metal.


“Gold has benefited from U.S. dollar weakness this week and we are looking for this trend to continue in 2017 as the price action seems to be priming for a strong start to the New Year. Gold has been positive every Q1 since 2005 except for one, and we expect to see another Q1 characterized by anemic economic growth,” said analysts at iiTrader.


Looking ahead to 2017, among consensus forecasts, the median average price is around $1,300 an ounce. Some analysts see gold’s potential as a safe-haven asset in an environment of global geopolitical uncertainty, unknown impacts of President-elect Donald Trump’s proposed fiscal and economic policies, as well as continued low global interest rates.

While several factors continue to favor the yellow metal in the long term, there is a lot more work that needs to be done in the short term. Jim Wyckoff, senior technical analyst at Kitco.com, described the market as “neutral.”

“From a longer-term technical perspective, the year 2016 did see price action negate a downtrend on the monthly gold chart. From a larger-degree technical perspective, gold bulls and bears are on a level playing field. For the bulls to gain keen longer-term technical strength, they must push prices above the 2016 high of $1,375. For the bears to gain fresh longer-term technical power, they must push prices below the 2015 low of $1,050,” he said.

Levels To Watch

Because of the thin volume during the past holiday-shortened trading week, investors will be anxious to see if there is any follow-through buying in the first week of the New Year.

Joshua Mahony, market analyst at IG, said that he would like to see gold push above $1,165 an ounce before he become more bullish on the metal.

However, Russell Browne, commodity strategist at Scotiabank, said in a recent report that while momentum indicators are turning more bullish, he remains negative on the yellow metal as long as prices are below $1,173 an ounce.

On the downside, analysts continue to keep an eye on support at $1,125 an ounce, which represents the last major retracement level from gold lows in 2015 to its July highs.

The Final Say

Next week will see another shortened trading period as markets are closed Monday in recognition of the New Year’s holiday. However, investors and traders will begin to trickle back into the market as the week progresses. The highlight of a series of U.S. economic reports will be Friday’s nonfarm payrolls report for December.

Before the jobs report is released, markets will receive important manufacturing numbers, service-sector data, minutes from the Federal Reserve’s December monetary policy meeting and private-sector employment data.


> http://www.kitco.com/news/2016-12-30/2016-Marks-End-To-Gold-s-Bear-Market-More-Work-To-Be-Done-Analysts.html

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A good suggestion - let's see how it worked out...


IF BRAVE enough, Buy some Calls on Gold shares


Gold could break down here, or it might be a terrific buying opportunity.

It might be worth a gamble


GDX / Gold Mining etf ... Two years / 10-d




(And then two days later, I posted this / Posted 19 December 2016 - 02:27 PM):

On Thursday, I bought Calls on GLD and NUGT

I am in profit (so far)

Let's recap:

Action : Option---------------------- : Date - Price - UL-cls / Last - Price - UL-cls / Gain + Pct.- /
BOT - GLD Call- Jan.2018-$110c : 12/15- $7.15 - 107.3 / 01/11- 10.32 - 113.5 / +$3.17 +44.06%
BOT - Nugt Call- Feb2017-$4.0 c : 12/15- $2.13 - $5.93 / 01/11- $5.55 - $9.48 / +$3.42 +160.6%
SLD - Nugt Call- Feb2017- $9.0 c : 01/05- $2.20 - 10.32 / 01/11- $1.86 - $9.48 / +$0.34 +15.45%
BOT - Nugt Call- Feb2017-$8.0 c : 01/12- $2.00 - $8.80*/ 01/11- $2.35 - $9.48 / +$0.35 +17.50%

Wow! Look how much bigger the gains are on the Nugt calls (+161%) versus the gain on the GLD calls (+44%)

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GLD -to-GDX Ratio - provides some good clues to Buying/Selling windows on GDX



Trading an etf as volatile as NUGT (the 3x Bull etf on GDX) -

these charts may be very helpful






I managed to buy NUGT calls on the day of the Red Arrow, and the investment is working very well so far

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KITCO Articles


It could be a good week for Gold - the market seems "coiled" for a move Up


Six Positive Gold Trends For 2017 - WGC Kitco News 01:04PM

RERUN Will Gold Miners Have a 2016 Repeat? Kitco Video News 08:50AM
=== ===

The six trends the WGC highlighted include: heightened political and geopolitical risks, currency depreciation, rising inflation expectations, inflated stock market valuations, long-term Asian growth and opening of new markets.

However, the three standout factors, according to three economists quoted in the report, will be Asian growth, political uncertainty from Europe as well as rising inflation as a result of U.S. policy.

According to Jim O'Sullivan, High Frequency Economics' chief U.S. economist, the Federal Reserve is likely to hike interest rates by 75 basis points this year, followed by another 100 bps in 2018.

. . .

* SPDR holdings rise for the first time since U.S. election
* Long gold positions rise for first time in nine weeks
* Weak physical market demand expected to cap gold's gains

Jan 16 Gold climbed on Monday to its highest in more than seven weeks on buying fuelled by political uncertainty after comments by U.S. President-elect Donald Trump on NATO and China.

. . .

After eight weeks of declining interest in gold, hedge funds started wading back into the gold market, according to the latest trade data from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission.



The Disaggregated Commitments of Traders report, for the week ending Jan. 10, showed money managers increased their speculative gross long positions in Comex gold futures by 7,777 contracts to 135,563. At the same time, short bets fell by 11,345 contracts to 79,884. Gold’s net length now stands at 55,679 contracts.

Gold’s net length bounced off its lowest level in almost a year, increasing 52% from the previous week. However, some analysts noted that long interest in gold is still at depressed levels and most of the increase was due to short-covering. . Gold’s net length is down almost 80% from its record highs seen in early July. During the survey period, gold prices rallied 2.2% to their highest point in nearly a month.

. . .

NYSE Arca Gold Miners Index, finished the year up 55 percent, handily beating all other asset classes, explained Frank Holmes, chief executive officer of U.S. Global Investors to Kitco News on Tuesday. Miners were followed by commodities at 25 percent and silver at 15 percent. Gold finished up 8.6 percent, its first positive year since 2012, when it gained 7.1 percent, he said. 'Many in the financial media continue to have a bias against gold, even though it generated better returns in 2016 than 10-year Treasuries and the U.S. dollar, which performed half as well. And when it was up as much as 28 percent in the summer, they still didn’t have anything positive to say, arguing it had gone up too much,

. . .

* Trump stimulus, commodities seen fuelling global recovery

* Trade tensions and European political surprises top risks

* U.S. monetary tightening could push up dollar further


DAVOS, Switzerland, Jan 16 (Reuters) - A trade war between the United States and China and a strengthening dollar are among the biggest threats to a brightening global economic outlook, according to leading economists at the World Economic Forum in Davos.

As political leaders, businessmen and bankers converge on the resort in the Swiss Alps this week, they can draw hope from a more benign economic picture and a rally in global stock markets on expectations of major stimulus under a new U.S. administration led by Donald Trump.

The backdrop is brighter than it was a year ago,..

Among the biggest concerns for 2017 cited by the half dozen economists interviewed by Reuters was the threat of a U.S.-China trade war, and broader economic tensions, triggered by what they fear could be a more confrontational Trump administration.

Trump is threatening to brand China a currency manipulator and impose heavy tariffs on imports of Chinese goods. Last month he named leading China critic Peter Navarro, author of the book "Death by China", as a top trade adviser.

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I ran this chart before selling about US$100k of Gold yesterday


GLD ... All-data



I was concerned that gold was running higher "on its own", without the participation of Gold shares.

and I thought the 4-6 mos cycle might be rolling over


I also produced this busy chart, expecting that NUGT might test expected support at about $10.00

(In my own chart work, I am accustomed to looking at such busy charts.)



Later in the day, we saw a sharp drop in GDX (-5.35%) and in NUGT (-16.07%)


NUGT ... 12 mos : Last: $9.45 - $1.81 : -16.07%



What we saw in the summer was: Gold chopped along in a high range, while GDX came down,

resulting in a GDX/GLD ratio that looks like this:



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I think rates may be peaking, after running up for a few weeks - see Bond thread, in the trading section


Gold looks like a Buy now... in Hong Kong (and in other FX too)


Frozen Gold chart : $1206.0 : Updated Gold chart

Gold-t24_au_en_usoz_6_zpsjidmywxo.gif : t24_au_en_usoz_6.gif


99.99Gold: 11310-11350 : 11330/ 1.21 = $9364 / 7.765 =$1.206
99.-- Gold : 11110-11150 : 11130/ 1.21 = $9198 / 7.765 = $1.185 -$21
PaperGold: 1,114-1116.5

> HS Bank: https://bank.hangseng.com/1/2/rates/gold-prices


Gold etf : HK-2840 ... update : $892.5 / $7.765 = $114.9 x 10.50 = $1,206.8 / HK-3118




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US ten year yield moving higher....bad news for gold?


I'm looking for another entry point.


(we saw a powerful Buy-on-News reaction yesterday... The rate rise was already over-discounted)




Now that THAT is Out of the way...

Gold, Silver... and mining shares ... and Bonds surge



Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen sought to reassure investors that the central bank’s latest interest-rate increase wasn’t a paradigm shift to a trigger-happy policy driven by fears of faster inflation.

Speaking to reporters after the Fed’s quarter percentage-point move on Wednesday, Yellen said the central bank was willing to tolerate inflation temporarily overshooting its 2 percent goal and that it intended to keep its policy accommodative for “some time.”

“The simple message is the economy’s doing well. We have confidence in the robustness of the economy and its resilience to shocks,” she said.

As a result, the Fed is sticking with its policy of gradually raising interest rates, Yellen said. In their first forecasts in three months, Fed policy makers penciled in two more quarter-point rate increases this year and three in 2018, unchanged from their projections in December.

Today’s decision “does not represent a reassessment of the economic outlook or of the appropriate course for monetary policy,” the Fed chief said.


GLD ... update : 10d



GDX ... update : 10d



TLT ... update : 10d



Check the volume - which surged

(I am LONG all three of these, in various ways - some through options, and am now happily in profit)

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Some terrific picks here - I wish the thread had received more attention


THESE Stocks did very well !! Average gain over 124%


Some spectacularly well; ( GZZ, LRA , RRI ) - these were the 3 stocks I liked most.

And at their highs, ALL were well above the initial prices


Sym.: Company------- : C$price: Low-to-High: ShOS: MktCap: $Cash : BkVal.: Last !! : +%chg : HighC$ :
AVU : Avrupa Res------ : $ 0.160 : $0.07-$.400 : 55.48 : $8.88m : $0.29m : $0.040 : $0.090 : - 43.7 % : $ 0.25
AZM : Azimut Explor.-- : $ 0.130 : $0.10-$.285 : 37.64 : $4.89m : $1.44m : $0.180 : $0.310 : +138.5% : $ 0.68
ALS : Altius Minerals*- : $ 13.25 : $9.86-15.47 : 39.93 : $529.m : $15.5m : $8.750 : $12.21 : - 7.85 % : $14.06
CKG : Chesapeake Gd: $ 1.540 : $1.39-$2.90 : 44.42 : $68.4m : $28.7m : $1.950 : $3.570 : +131.8% : $ 6.50
GZZ : Golden Valley--- : $ 0.100 : $.075-$0.21 : 99.20 : $9.74m : $2.37m : $0.200 : $0.350 : +250.0% : $0.495
LRA : Lara Exploration : $ 0.305 : $0.20-$0.55 : 31.21 : $9.50m : $0.81m : $0.080 : $1.010 : +231.1% : $ 1.58
NGE : Nevada Explor.- : $ 0.180 : $0.05-$0.35 : 30.91 : $5.56m : $0.03m : $0.250 : $0.345 : +91.67% : $ 0.72
RRI- : Riverside Res. - : $ 0.155 : $0.15-$0.36 : 37.00 : $5.74m : $5.90m : $0.230 : $0.475 : +206.5% : $ 0.60
Average Gain of these 8 stocks: +124.8% to yesterday's close - to the High, much better


I owned only one (GZZ), and did well with that, but could have held on longer


> see thread: http://www.greenenergyinvestors.com/index.php?showtopic=20364

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Dollar / DXY may not get to important trendline support at 98 in April




If we get a rally from here, it may be the Last rally before a very deep and lasting correction in the USD

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