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GOLD SHARES / such as: GDX, GDXJ, CDNX etc.

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GLD/SLV ratio and GDX/SIL ratio


An update;
Capture2LHF_zps694b1577.png

GDX/SIL appears to be outperforming GLD/SLV.

I think this could be a signal that the July low in metals is a major low in the metals.

 

 

 

Each ratio on the previous chart had been plotted using different scales so in fact it was not possible to do a direct comparison between the two ratios using that chart.

 

 

 

I have now reconfigured the chart so the scale for each ratio matches on a 1 : 1 basis (see next post)

 

I previously stated on 14th November that I had thought that there was a change since the start of September and that the GDX/SIL ratio had started to outperform the GLD/SLV ratio.

 

That is in fact not the case (see next post)

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GLD/SLV ratio and GDX/SIL ratio - 2011 to present

a307b8e7-abd3-4b02-a01b-64d732051a44_zps

 

This shows that since 1st May 2011 the GLD/SLV ratio is moving higher relative to the GDX/SIL ratio which is moving lower.

 

In other words since 1st May 2011 the price of gold has increased at a faster rate than silver, whilst at the same time the price of Silver miners (SIL) has increased at a faster rate than gold miners (GDX) in an apparent contradiction. I think that is quite interesting and needs to be explored/discussed further given that there is a correlation between a commodity and the miners of that commodity.

 

 

The chart below uses scales that are matched for each ratio so a move of 1 on one scale equals a move of 1 on the other. This enables an accurate comparison of the performance of one ratio relative to the other.

 

 

The trendlines below show the performance of each ratio since the start of September.

1f3a9d06-0561-4bb2-97c5-6d8e963ae5fd_zps

 

We can see that the GLD/SLV ratio continues to outperform the GDX/SIL ratio.

 

It's interesting to watch this dynamic. I think that when the GDX/SIL ratio starts to outperform the GLD/SLV ratio it will likely signal a change in the precious metals markets that heralds a low in both gold and silver and the beginning of a new bull market.

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GLD-to-GDX Ratio is back at the Top of the Channel

 

 

/ A Bad week for Gold Shares on a 1.8% drop in Gold

on some small falls in the US Dollar /

==== Last WEEK's MOVES ====: == on Friday 12/06 alone ==
GLD: 120.70 : - 1.78% / 118.55 : + 0.25 : +0.21% / 7.75 M
GDX: $22.28 : - 7.27 % > $20.66 : - 0.01 : - 0.05% / 23.6 M
Ratio : 5.417 : + 5.93 % / R 5.738 :
Gdxj : $32.50 -11.11 % / $28.89 : - 0.28 : - 0.96% : 1.033 M

 

kwke.png

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Gold may NOW be making an important Retest Low !

 

 

GOLD, A familiar pattern?

 

I think so - just look at it !

 

0gph.gif

 

Of particular similarity is:
+ Waves c-d-e-f : "the box", where d and f are about the same level
+ Wave-f : is the "mid-correction peak" !
+ Wave-g : holds above the c and e lows
+ Wave-h : the "last gasp" rally
+ Wave-i : the slide into: The Low at "i"
+ Wave-j : a small rally
+ Wave-k : Retest Low (higher than i)
========
If this pattern is repeating, Gold is now on/near the Retest Low

 

==

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Gold may NOW be making an important Retest Low !

 

==

 

That's quite uncanny.

 

If you consider the fractal nature, that one pattern occurs over 2 decades, and the other over 2 years, then this suggests that if the pattern continues as a fractal of the longer term structure, this means gold will go past $1800 in the next 6 months, and triple to £3600 within 12 months.

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About the "Gold, K-structure" chart....

 

 

That's quite uncanny.

 

If you consider the fractal nature, that one pattern occurs over 2 decades, and the other over 2 years, then this suggests that if the pattern continues as a fractal of the longer term structure, this means gold will go past $1800 in the next 6 months, and triple to £3600 within 12 months.

 

Exactly !

It is Fractal - but the correction is at a different scale, that's why it is shorter.

 

However, the same psychological process has been at work (getting fed up with gold)

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Right time to get back "into the waters" (of Mining Shares) ?

 

 

According to a famous trader of the past, W. D. Gann: “Time is more important (in markets), than price; when time is up, price will reverse.”
It has now been 29 months since gold last reached a new high in its current bull market cycle. The downtrend lasted 22 months (top to bottom), having bottomed on June 28 2013 at $1180. Confirmation of the bottom came on Dec 31 when gold briefly touched $1182, and left behind a double bottom, see chart #3.
There have been two other corrections that lasted 6 months or more, from top to bottom: In 2006 gold declined for 6 months, and in 2008 the pullback took 8 months to bottom.
Thus a 22 month down-cycle qualifies under the Gann definition as ‘time is up’.
Historical Life of Gold Stock Bear markets / source:
jordan_20140116_3.jpg

 

=

 

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GDXJ charts are looking better

 

"Miners of interest..."

 

GDXJ / Junior Gold Producers ... update

 

i71.gif

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Watch the Gold-to- Gold stock ratio

 

/ A Big Week for Gold shares, especially the Juniors /

gold_mine.jpg
==== Last WEEK's MOVES ==== : = on Friday 01/17 alone = :
GLD : 120.26 : + 0.55 % / 120.93 : +1.14 : +0.95% / 7.83 M
GDX : $22.01 : + 6.00 % > $23.33 : + 0.71 : +3.14% / 37.79 M
Ratio : 5.464 : - 5.14 % / R 5.183 :
Gdxj : $32.70 : + 11.9 % / $36.58 : +2.04 : +5.91% : 3.28 M
ASA : $12.53 : + 3.11 % / $12.92 : +0.28 : +2.22% : 87,077
Nugt : $30.67 : + 17.9 % / $36.16 : +3.00 : +9.05% : 6.32 mn
SPRD: 793.12: + 0.50 % / 797.05 = 25.626 mn oz. Gold stored
===
SLV : $19.38 : + 0.67 % / $19.51 : +0.16 : +0.83% : 6.47 mn
SIL - : $11.47 : + 7.15 % / $12.29 : +0.34 : +2.85% : 324,749
CU - : $21.38 : + 5.47 % / $22.55 : -0.06 : - 0.27% : 5,804
Cop'r : $3.344: - 0.09 % / $3.341:+0.003: +0.10% : 29,606
FXI - : $36.43 : - 1.73 % / $35.80 : -0.06 : - 0.17% : 21.1 mn
DBA : $24.24 : - 0.33 % / $24.16 : -0.19 : - 0.19% : 377,216
CRB : 275.50: + 1.09 % / 278.50 : +3.00 : : View CRB-Chart :
BTC : $960.0 : - 5.73 % / $905.0 +20.0 : : View Bitcoin-Chart
===
PHM : $20.16 : - 3.97 % / $19.36 : - 0.33 : - 1.68 % : 4.51 mn
OILB : $67.77 : + 1.02 % / $68.46 : +0.53 : +0.78 % : 16,843
USO : $33.29 : + 1.20 % / $33.69 : +0.04 : +0.12% : 6.85 mn
SPY- : 184.14 : - 0.27 % / 183.64 : +0.50 : - 0.79% : 96.0 mn
TLT- : 104.41 : + 1.02 % / 105.48 : +0.44 : +0.42% : 7.56 mn
DXY- : 80.625 : + 0.69 % / 81.181: + 0.264 : +0.33 % : N / A
===================
Big Movers:
===
Nugt : $30.67 : + 17.9 %
Gdxj : $32.70 : + 11.9 %
SIL - : $11.47 : + 7.15 %
GDX : $22.01 : + 6.00 %
BTC : $960.0 : - 5.73 %
CU - : $21.38 : + 5.47 %
Other Big developments:
Gold holdings of the SPDR Gold trust ROSE - A new trend?
Big (and important?) drop in the GLD/GDX Ratio: -5.14% !
kghm.png
Ratio, using GDXJ, instead of GDX:
e2kj.png

 

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REPORT on the PDAC

 

PDAC 2014 Underscores Muted Sentiment towards Gold Stocks

Wednesday, 5 March 2014

 

By Jordan Roy-Byrne, CMT

 

The buzz phrase at PDAC 2014 could be described as “cautious optimism.” Executives, analysts and investors seem to believe a corner has been turned but failed to show any excitement or hope beyond that. Some participants estimated that attendance was down 20% from last year and much lower than 2012. I did not attend last year but definitely noticed foot traffic was significantly lower than in 2012. Interest in my presentation this year was much lower than in 2012. Mind you, these are only anecdotal measures of sentiment. However, for me they further underscore that very few seem to believe in the immediate continuation and sustainability of this recovery.

 

During my flight home I read Mining Weekly’s cover story (the publication given to every attendee) which further exhibits the mild, cautious optimism pervading the industry. The various assertions and comments included: “Road to recovery will be bumpy,” “Most juniors will fail,” “Control costs in an era of lower metal prices,” and “Metals prices have reached a plateau.” Also, there was a mention of strong deflationary forces and deflation, not inflation as the risk. Furthermore, industry titan Rick Rule was quoted in the story and in the Financial Post as saying juniors still need to capitulate. This is simply not the kind of talk that precedes a market decline or prolonged underperformance.

 

Moreover, some of these comments are divorced from a new reality. The chart below shows the CCI (commodities), CDNX and GDXJ. Commodities have broken out from a three year downtrend and advanced above the 400-day moving average for the first time in two and a half years. Canada’s Venture (CDNX) which consists of mostly commodity exploration companies declined 65% from top to bottom but is now currently trading above its 200-day moving average and at a 10-month high. It was last above that moving average in spring 2011. Meanwhile, GDXJ is holding strong after declining 82% over a more than two and a half year bear market.

 

 

mar4edccicdnx.png

 

 

The breakout in commodities and end of the downtrend suggests that inflation and not deflation will be the next concern.

 

==

> More: http://news.goldseek.com/GoldSeek/1394032320.php

=

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GLD/SLV ratio and GDX/SIL ratio - 2011 to present

a307b8e7-abd3-4b02-a01b-64d732051a44_zps

 

This shows that since 1st May 2011 the GLD/SLV ratio is moving higher relative to the GDX/SIL ratio which is moving lower.

 

In other words since 1st May 2011 the price of gold has increased at a faster rate than silver, whilst at the same time the price of Silver miners (SIL) has increased at a faster rate than gold miners (GDX) in an apparent contradiction. I think that is quite interesting and needs to be explored/discussed further given that there is a correlation between a commodity and the miners of that commodity.

 

We can see that the GLD/SLV ratio continues to outperform the GDX/SIL ratio.

 

It's interesting to watch this dynamic. I think that when the GDX/SIL ratio starts to outperform the GLD/SLV ratio it will likely signal a change in the precious metals markets that heralds a low in both gold and silver and the beginning of a new bull market.

 

GDX/SIL ratio

GLD/SLV ratio

Gold (GLD)

Silver (SLV)

GSLHF_zpsab5e3fdd.png

 

Double bottom in GDX/SIL ratio on 19th February 2014 signals a change in behaviour.

 

The birth of a new bull market in gold and silver stocks?

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Nice Chart - thanks to PD - with Arrows added

 

AB_zpsb4911ac5.png

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CDNX - The Canadian Venture Index - still moving higher (anticipating higher Gold?)

 

C_zps57a13dbf.png

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GDXJ / Junior Mining etf

 

AC_zps6e398ca4.png

 

... and Ratio : GDXJ / GDX

 

AD_zps0de82cbc.png

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GDM / Arca Gold Miners Index ... GDM-4yrs : all-data // GDX-4yrs : all-data // HUI-4yrs : all-data

 

big_zpsd1542c12.gif

 

--3yrs->A_zpsa6eef2f6.png

 

HUI - all data : 4 yrs // GLD-all-data : 4yrs // DBA-all-data : 4 yrs

big2_zps9897e80c.gif

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(Hey, Folks, pay close attention to this week's data !!)

(the change in SPDR holdings of Gold could be very meaningful :

They ROSE in a week where Gold was down!)


/ Gold breaks DOWN out of triangle, in possible "head fake" /

== Last WEEK's MOVES ==== : on Friday 05/30 alone = :
GLD : 124.51 : - 3.28 % / 120.43 : -0.51 : -0.42% / 8.32 M
GDX : $23.31 : - 3.47 % > $22.50 : +0.26 : +1.17% / 24.57 M
Ratio : 5.341 : + 0.21 % / R 5.352 (GLDx10.384 = $1,250.50)
Gdxj : $34.91 : - 2.29 % / $34.11 : +0.71 : +2.13% : 3.79 M
ASA : $13.45 : - 3.04 % / $13.04 : +0.08 : +0.62% : 23,908
Nugt : $32.64: -11.09 % / $29.02 : +0.95 : +3.38% : 4.059
SPRD 776.89: + 1.08 % / 785.28 = 25.248 mn oz. Gold stored
Hgold: 16.09 : - 3.32 % / 15.56 (dxy80.391) Resistance-17.10
===
SLV : $18.66 : - 3.11 % / $18.08 : -0.22 : -1.21% : 12.68 mn
SIL- : $11.94 : - 4.61 % / $11.39 : -0.05 : -0.44% : 125,986
DBA : $28.12 : - 1.46 %/ $27.71 : -0.28 : -1.00% : 1.607 M
Cop'r $3.168 : - 1.01 % / $3.136 : -0.010 : -0.30% : 37,682
WTI-: 104.39 : - 1.45 % / 102.88 : -0.63 : -0.61% : 149,518
CRB: 308.26 : - 0.90 % / 305.48 : -1.86 : -0.61% : View-Chart
Wheat 651.5 : - 3.57 % / 628.25 : -4.25 : -0.67% : 46,722
Corn: 477.00 : - 2.46 % / 465.25 : -4.25 : -0.91% : 112,252
Sugar: .1740 : - UNCH.- / $.1740 : -0.001: -0.57% : 49,462
BTC : $516.0 : +19.27 % / $615.41 : +6.86% :
B/Gld 39.91%: +23.31 % / 49.21 % : == Big Rise, as BTC Shoots up
===
FXI- : $36.34 : + 1.40 % / $36.85 : +0.19 : +0.52% : 18.92 mn
PHM : $19.70 : - 0.71 % / $19.56 : -0.18 : -0.91% : 4.76 mn
XLF- : $22.04 : + 1.01 % / $22.29 : +0.05 : +0.22% : 24.71 mn
SPY- : 190.35 : + 1.22 % / 192.68 : +0.31 : +0.16% : 65.6 mn
Xlf/Spy 11.58% - 0.10 % / 11.57% ==> Ratio near Unch.
IWM- : 111.97 : + 0.79 % / 112.86 : -0.51 : -0.45% : 37.64 mn
TLT - : 112.70 : + 1.24 % / 114.10 : -0.05 : -0.04% : 6.262 mn
DXY- : 80.354 : + 0.05 % / 80.391 : -0.109 : -0.14% : N / A
G/A-G: 110.5%: - 4.48 % / 105.5% ==> Made Double Bottom

 

BIG MOVERS : (more than 5% moves)
============

Nugt : $32.64: - 11.09 % / $29.02 :

BTC : $516.0 : +19.27 % /$615.41 :

 

 

GOLD's Possible HEAD FAKE ? ..... GLD-chart : GDX : GDXJ : RGLD

 

GLD_zpse6911c22.gif

 

Gold dropped DOWN out of the triangle, and fell $25 in a single day (Tuesday)

BUT...

GDX and GDXJ both ROSE on Thu. and Fri., as GLD continued to fall.

AND...

Gold Holdings at SPDR ROSE 1.08% on the week, as GLD fell -3.28%.

This difference could be very meaningful !

 

If Gold holdings rose as gold fell, who was selling ?

(SPDR bought 446k ounces, worth $558 milion.)?

Answer:

The sellers were those whose Stops got hit when fell below the triangle.

Now that "weak longs" have been forced out, the Gold market could be set to push higher.

Ladies and gents, this looks like a HEAD FAKE in the Gold market.

 

GDXJ_zps64ca31b9.gif

 

Look for:

+ RGLD to rise further next week - soon reversing ALL on this week's drop : RGLD chart

+ GLD to reverse to Up next week, following GDX higher (GDX often gives an advance warning in Gold moves)

+ GDXJ to continue to rise faster than GDX : GDXJ chart

 

If all these three do not happen, I may be wrong about the possible "head fake".

Let's watch and see.

 

I bought Jan.$25 Call on NUGT during the drop on Thursday, as the bellwethers turned up.

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Did you fall for Gold's Head Fake?

 

BW-HeadFake_zpsad1bed50.png

 

That's if my Bellwethers are working well.

 

RGLD is above the Gap Down,

and GDXJ is nearly there.

 

GDX and GLD normally follow these

 

SEE: New Green Energy Video : "The Bellwethers Have Rung!"

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GLD-to-GDX Ratio : A "Right Shoulder" maybe ?

A_zps3aff63cb.png

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A Golden Lift-Off Approaches

 

Market Vectors Junior Gold Miners (ARCA:GDXJ) just took out the 200 day moving average on its second highest volume ever, and record volume in GDXJ was just last week. This is big time accumulation going on. Furthermore checkout mining stocks like MAG Silver Corp. (AMEX:MVG), Agnico Eagle Mines Limited (NYSE:AEM), Sandstorm Gold (ARCA:SAND) to name a few. As soon as gold completed the failed breakdown they have gone on a moonshot. This is something that few are talking about because everybody is so beat up and tired of the bear market in gold. But this is exactly the type of behavior that launches a new bull market, big volume and explosive price moves.

 

HTTP://www.investing.com/analysis/a-golden-lift-off-approaches-216631

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"Market Vectors Junior Gold Miners (ARCA:GDXJ) just took out the 200 day moving average on its second highest volume ever,

and record volume in GDXJ was just last week.."

 

Not surprised.

I anticipated this more than a week ago : "The Bellwethers Have Rung" Video

 

But it is GREAT to see that this movie is unfolding according to the preview, and others are coming on board, joining the cast.

 

The best part of this move will not unfold unless many more jump in.

 

A key Breakout has just shown up here also:

=

GLD-to-GDX Ratio has broken uptrend - Good times for Gold shares and Gold ahead ?

 

GLD-toGDX_zpsde40a081.png

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MORE encouraging signs, and results

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June is for Junior Gold Miners: Up Close to 30% This Month - by Jeb Handwerger , Jun 19 2014 3:13PM
jeb_20140619_2.jpg

Summary

  1. Technical signals have been turning positive for some time in the precious metals and junior miners.
  2. Record short position may soon need to cover as major accumulation and investment interest has entered the precious metals sector.
  3. June has been a marvelous month for the junior gold miners (GDXJ) in 2014 which is a rarity as June is usually a slow month for gold.
  4. Geopolitical tensions increasing worldwide making the appeal of gold and silver as a safe haven greater.
  5. I give 3 reasons why gold and silver may breakout soaring higher possibly.

June is busting out gold and silver and all over the junior miners (GDXJ) which is up close to 30% this month alone. Are the blacks swans waking you up from the summer doldrums?

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Time for the CDNX to start moving? (Following GDXJ / the Juniors?)

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The Wild and Whacky History of the CDNX - by Rambus Chartology , Jun 19 2014 12:23PM

 

Gold Miners - Bullish Percentage

 

rambus_20140619_1.gif

As you know the juniors have been leading the way higher since this move higher began. I would like to show you the CDNX which was our proxy for the small cap PM stocks before all the new etf’s came out. This is a real good gauge on how the small cap universe is doing, in general, as there are small cap oil and gas stocks in there as well.

Presently the CDNX ( a Canadian Listed Index) has been relegated to the back pages and is watched by very few analysts anymore , but I believe it has an incredible story to tell and is still a very important clue as to the whole Precious Metals Complex

. . .

The bullish setup is that we have the blue falling wedge forming right on top of the neckline. As I have stated many times in the past when you have a smaller chart pattern form just below, just above or right on an important trendline that is a very big clue that the trendline is hot and to be respected.

rambus_20140619_3.gif

I would now like to put our inverse H&S bottom in perspective by looking at a weekly chart for the CDNX...

rambus_20140619_6.gif

==

> More: http://www.kitco.com/ind/Tablish/2014-06-19-Wednesday-Report-The-Wild-and-Whacky-History-of-the-CDNX.html

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A Good day for Gold, and a much better day for Gold shares

 

BEAM ME UP - say the Gold shares !

 

flacon-9-rocket.jpg?w=600

 

This was more than a rocket !

 

Oct: -SPY-: Chg : volume/ -GDX : Chg. : -GLD- : Chg : volume: x10.3? : WTI.Cr: -DXY-- -Chg- : --TLT--: -Chg- : Posts= / Views: cum'l

07: 193.26 - 3.03 : 132.M: 20.74 - 0.74 : 116.36 +0.33 : 5.23M: 1,208.7 $88.43* 85.798 - 0.173 : 119.36 +1.59 : 07 : 037 / 090 : 0,610 /

08: 196.64 +3.38 : 173.M: 21.94 +1.52 : 117.47 +1.11 : 10.6M: 1,221.9 $87.71* 85.235 - 0.563 : 119.39 +0.03 : 08 : 045 / 105 : 0.715 /

 

Some BIG gains here :

 

ETF : $-Last- : change : chg-pct : Volume

Nugt : $24.08 : +4.27 :+21.55% : 12.87mn

Gdxj : $34.46 : +3.02 : + 9.61% : 23.47mn

GDX: $21.94 : +1.52 : + 7.44% : 101.2mn : highest volume of the year

SIL- : $10.64 : +0.68 : + 6.83% : 669,754

SLV : $16.68 : +0.20 : + 1.21% : 9.27 mn

GLD : 117.47 : +1.11 : + 0.95% : 10.56mn

DXY : 85.235 :-0.563 : - 0.66% : N/A

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