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drbubb

Towards a more Nuanced view on Gold prices

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I think investors need to guard against believing in 'secrets' and 'elites' etc as it can take you up the garden path. Better to stay objective and focussed and take markets as you find them. Deal with the appearances as they are, and refrain from delving to deeply into some perceived reality behind them because most often that reality will just be a reflection of your own prejudices/ biases.

Okay. Your opinion is sensible.

However, I have some evidence that I cannot discuss in detail, which might confirm some of what Wilcock/Fulford have been talking about. If I did not have that (to "confuse" me perhaps), I might be in 100% agreement. Having had it, I am more willing to give those two some benefit of the doubt, and keep a "watching brief" on the reports of Huge secret gold positions.

 

BTW, the fact that others, not only W/F, believe that total gold reserves might be up to 2 Million tonnes, gives me another reason to want to be alert to possible "surprises" about Gold supply.

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5/ Some think that Elites are engineering the next financial crisis, in order to put in place a global currency and a world government. It certainly looks that way to me. If so, might part of their game be to push up the price of Gold, and then unload it slowly over time, by linking the world currency at Gold at a time when the Gold price is near record highs? As I see this as a real possibility, I want to think about alternative stores of wealth. Riding the wave engineered by the Elites is one game. But you need to be ready to exit in a timely way, if their games does not work. They may get "found out." And if the world suddenly wakes up and discovers there is 50% more Gold or 100% or more Gold than it believed, there could be a catastrophic price drop. I am not saying you should spend sleepless nights over this risk, but do stay alert and open-minded, and that way you may be amongst the fisrt to realise the importance of confirming intelligence as it comes through.

I find this "bullish conspiracy" thing really, really, really bizarre.

 

This is the natural preference of the people:

one_dollar_bill_reverse-united_states_.jpg

and this is the confidence trick engineered by elite groups:

ary1ouncegoldbarobv400.jpg

Really?

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I find this "bullish conspiracy" thing really, really, really bizarre.

This is the natural preference of the people:

and this is the confidence trick engineered by elite groups:

Really?

No.

That's not what I mean. I am not necessarily pro-dollar, or fiat currencies.

I am certainly against printing excess amounts of money to hide excessive debts.

But I do not want to fall into the trap of enriching secret elites, who are helping to engineer a currency crisis while loading up on Gold. And then, hoodwinking people into supporting a gold-linked currency at a high gold price.

 

Let's get the fundamentals right, so we can live without Gold.

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No.

That's not what I mean. I am not necessarily pro-dollar, or fiat currencies.

I am certainly against printing excess amounts of money to hide excessive debts.

But I do not want to fall into the trap of enriching secret elites, who are helping to engineer a currency crisis while loading up on Gold. And then, hoodwinking people into supporting a gold-linked currency at a high gold price.

 

Let's get the fundamentals right, so we can live without Gold.

Agreed, but the fundamentals are not right. Once you can get a positive return on your money at an acceptable level of risk the gold bull case will fall apart. In the meantime it has two amazing attributes: no counterparty risk, relatively difficult to trace (and then aquire) by the state when it starts really struggling to fund iteslf.

 

I just don't think you need some shadowy group looking to offload all that pesky gold that they've had sitting around for 500 years to explain the current appeal. If there is a shadowy group conning the world, it's the one with the printing presses and they're probably more than happy with that scenario in perpetuity.

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It does describe what is happening better than: "Gold is an inflation hedge."

 

But what about the second part:

"The thing is, there are no bearings inherent in a fear driven Gold rally. Like VIX, it can go wherever it may go. Then, Gold can crash back down after the fear passes through it."

 

Yes gold price will crash. But at say 200$/oz as Prechter is calling for, you wont get physical gold.

 

Lots of people consider gold as money, but it tends to dry up as the price rises. Why? Think about it.

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"The average person is not in on this rally yet."

 

 

 

Yes they are ask any Chinese, Indian, Vietnamese, Indonesian, Arab. Your average person perhaps is a western national who has been doctored to believe paper is money. You are however correct majority of people will learn the hard way as they wont be able to participate in this rally.

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Agreed, but the fundamentals are not right. Once you can get a positive return on your money at an acceptable level of risk the gold bull case will fall apart. In the meantime it has two amazing attributes: no counterparty risk, relatively difficult to trace (and then aquire) by the state when it starts really struggling to fund iteslf.

 

I just don't think you need some shadowy group looking to offload all that pesky gold that they've had sitting around for 500 years to explain the current appeal. If there is a shadowy group conning the world, it's the one with the printing presses and they're probably more than happy with that scenario in perpetuity.

Perhaps we agree on more than you thought.

 

WHY cannot the same group that is ultimately behind Central Banks, not ALSO BE a group which is behind accumulating gold in large quantities, albeit secretly. Wouldn't that help to explain why they are so blind too the merits of Gold - They may know all about it, and actually see some secret benefit if Fiat currencies crash and burn. Then they can replace them with a Global currency backed by gold, and cash in their precious metals holds for a new sound currency. It sounds funny, but it just might work.

 

Couldn't that explain the muted response of Ben Bernanke to Ron Paul's question:

 

 

Ron Paul diagnoses the problems well, but perhaps he fails to see that there is a DESIGN behind the Fed's apparent incompetence.

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Michael,

This is the 1st thread I noticed, when popping in yesterday after I guess many months of not visiting.

What first came to mind is this question:

 

"When did you stop beating your mother?"

 

That question is one used to demonstrate that sometimes there is no answer, because the question makes no sense (unless you happen to be a mother beater LOL).

 

I've read your questions, and to me they are the wrong questions. I can see why you've picked those questions, because you have your world view, and to you they are the obvious and sensible questions.

But, with my world view, they don't make much sense.

 

My starting point would be to look at history and find facts. How did money come about, and what has been used, and what effects did the different systems make?

That will put the current worldwide fiat currency system into context.

 

To me, there are a few basic things, which when understood/asked, set the right scene:

 

1. Is here any such thing as "sustainable growth"?

2. Can the current interest bearing fiat currency system function without growth?

 

If you answer no and no, then one must conclude that the current fiat system will at some time disappear.

If it does, what will happen? How best to suffer least from such a change?

Is it imminent?

If yes, then those who wish to suffer least had better find out how and act soon.

 

History and FOFOA/FOA/A leads me to believe that gold is the best solution.

 

The sensible question to me is not "how high can gold go?", but "how low can the fiat currencies go?".

Answer....ZERO.

 

When viewing this, IMO one must look at a reasonable/sensible timescale.

10 years or less? Way too short.

 

1980 to now? Nope, too short.

 

Try at least 1900 to now, but better to go back 5000 years.

 

I know you view everything from a traders perspective. I'm not a short/medium term trader, I look at trends for about a decade, and act on those.

It was real estate, it was shares, it was real estate, it is now the inevitable result of borrowing and spending (what is properly called a period of INFLATION, an increase in the money supply), with the resultant increase in PRICES.

 

If an individual spends more in their early years, there is only one result, they will be poorer in their later years.

The same applies to countries. Countries have borrowed from the future, and now there is only one result which must happen, they must be poorer for a while to make up.

 

But, with the worldwide fiat system, can the system survive?

There will either be massive devaluation of the currencies or they will collapse.

 

Anyone who understands that gold is not just a commodity, but has served as money for centuries, my father used silver coins in his pocket every day, and richer people used gold coins, that's under 100 years go, yet now people have forgotten and stupidly think gold and silver are just commodities and for speculation.

 

People really have become stupid/ignorant.

I think they will learn a lesson soon enough.

 

To talk of gold rampers is laughable. The whole system ramps the fiat system, distorts the truth and hides the way it works, and is vastly greater than a few possible rampers. If a few rampers make people think, good on them.

 

What I say is what I believe. Those who don't agree, fine, those who gain from what I say, good.

You have to find your own way in life, make your own decisions and live with the consequences.

 

Something smells and it's getting stronger. Got real physical gold? :)

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Okay.

Steve, Everyone views the world from their own perspective. Which I something that you have said in your own way.

 

Just because I can see the potential for elites benefitting from ramping the gold price, does not mean that I am in favor of the current system of fiat currency, excess borrowings, and the use of over-printing of money to disguise the imbalances. Both are wrong. Maybe if we start by agreeing on that, we can make some progress.

 

What disturbs me is the way that an obvious problem (excessive debts and reckless money growth) leads people to a solution : buying gold to benefit from falling confidence in currencies, which may in turn benefit the same rich elites that are benefitting from their control of the money system.

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