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An especially Momentous Year? (DrB's Predictions)

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An especially Momentous Year? (DrB's Predictions)

From the Podcast for Frisby's Bulls and Bears

=============================================

 

Ten Shocks that we might see in 2012

 

MP3: http://commoditywatch.podbean.com/mf/web/yguz5y/Hampton2012Preds.mp3

 

/Link: http://commoditywatch.podbean.com/2011/12/28/2012-a-momentous-year-ten-shocks-that-we-might-see-in-2012/'>http://commoditywatch.podbean.com/2011/12/28/2012-a-momentous-year-ten-shocks-that-we-might-see-in-2012/

 

"We should get at least one, and may get 2-3 or even more of the 10 shocks"

 

2012moment.jpg

 

The original Title on FBB mentioned Aliens, and I was concerned that people might decide not to listen. I think they should have a chance to hear the framework in which it is presented rather than reacting to one possible shock and prejudging the points I make. (There are many close-minded people out there. I reckon they are not good traders, since open-mindedness helps in trading from my experience. But they may still react negatively to some useful forecasts.)

 

/source: http://commoditywatch.podbean.com/2011/12/28/2012-a-momentous-year-ten-shocks-that-we-might-see-in-2012/

=== ===

globe3t.gif

 

The Past: 2011 Predictions

SilverStrat Interviews: http://www.silverstrategies.com/EditorialsTvRadio.aspx?all=1

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A Mo·men·tous Year ?

- Could be the most important year in the lifetime of Most of Us

====================

 

TEN SHOCKS that could transform the world in 2012 - we should get at least one, and may get 2-3 or even more of these

 

1/ A stock market collapse- the year ended in "2" is the most dangerous. Food prices have been rising, and energy prices are well off their low. Perhaps only a stock market crash will save us from a renewed rise in oil and food. I think there's a good chance we may get one. My best guess is that the market would bottom around Q3, with a sharp drop into the summer.

 

2/ The whip of the dragon's tail - in the year of the dragon.

(Dragon Years: 2012, 2000, 1988, 1976, 1964, 1952, 1940, 1928, 1916, 1904)

Water Dragon year: A symbol of good fortune and sign of intense power, the Oriental Dragon is regarded as a divine beast - the reverse of the malicious monster that Westerners felt necessary to find and slay. But it may also bring: Earthquakes, Flu. Many babies will be born in 2012, since Chinese parents want lucky children.

Having said this I expect deeper falls in the Chinese stock market in the first half: the low we saw in 2008 (SSEC-1706.70, Nov 4 2008) is likely to be retested,

 

3/ Major earthquakes cause deaths and chaos : My own statistical work on earthquakes shows we are at or above a two standard deviation move away from the mean number. Looking at Earthquakes of 7.0-9.9 on the Richter scale, fpr the 30 years from 1980-2010, the Mean was 14 quakes on that scale. In last two years, the stats have jumped to 24 in 2010 and 20 quakes in 2011. That's two standard deviations away from the 30 year Mean.

 

4/ Major volcano erupts, disrupting global travel, and possibly the global economy - the two main candidates ; Katla in Iceland and Cumbre Vieja, In the Canary Islands. There's a large mass of land along the Western side of a ring of volcanos on the Canary Island.

 

5/ A flooding of previously unreported gold into the market : 10x the quantity may be out the "85% which is held off market" in Asia, awaiting the launch of a new excahnge.

 

6/ Resignation of Obama, or a declaration he will not run for president. Hillary Clinton may run in his place and be beat by the Republican candidate. There is some small chance that would be Ron Paul if the move against Obama comes early enough in 2012. If not, there's an even chance then that Ron Paul would run as a third party candidate with a well-known running mate, such as Jesse Ventura.

 

7/ A European political crisis, disrupting currency and equity markets - when it becomes obvious the can cannot be kicked down the road in Europe. Debt crisis expands, European banks tetter and get taken over. Countries leave the Euro and slide into depression.

 

8/ The bankruptcy of one or more US states and a rift in the Unity of the US - and triggering a possible collapse of the US dollar

 

... the next may seem like a longshot - please watch the film, Thrive

 

9/ Disclosure of a alien presence on earth - followed by a collapse in energy prices

 

10/ A shift in earth poles really happens but the world does not end - least likely but the most disruptive. The next phase of the Mayan Calendar begins with a sense of relief, and a concensus that we can no longer abuse the planet and waste its resources, we must act as stewarts of ist riches and all the life forms that live on it/

 

=== ===

 

It takes a bit of courage to list some of these shocks in a public predictions podcast - Let's see how people react.

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CHARTS, Data

======

 

The Ten Year Cycle in Stocks

decade-dow10-yr-cycle.GIF

 

The longer term context?

 

A 21% drop would take China stocks to a Double bottom

shangidxb.png

2008 low : 1706.70, Nov 4 2008

Current- : 2166.21

A further fall of 21.2%, would bring the Shanghai composite to the 2008 Low.

 

Earthquakes - Number Above R-7.0 is Two SD's away from the Mean

earthquakes.gif

 

...more coming...

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A Mo·men·tous Year ?

- the most important one in the lifetime of Most of Us

====================

 

TEN SHOCK that could transform the world in 2012 - we should get at least one, and may get 2-3 or even more of these

 

1/ A stock market collapse- the year ended in "2" is the most dangerous. Food prices have been rising, and energy prices are well off their low. Perhaps only a stock market crash will save us from a renewed rise in oil and food. I think there's a good chance we may get one. My best guess is that the market would bottom around Q3, with a sharp drop into the summer.

 

2/ The whip of the dragon's tail - in the year of the dragon.

(previous: 2012, 2000, 1988, 1976, 1964, 1952, 1940, 1928, 1916, 1904)

Water Dragon year:

A symbol of good fortune and sign of intense power, the Oriental Dragon is regarded as a divine beast - the reverse of the malicious monster that Westerners felt necessary to find and slay. In Eastern philosophy, the Dragon is said to be a deliverer of good fortune and a master of authority.

Many babies born in 2012

Having said this I expect deeper falls in the Chinese stock market in the first half of the year: the low we saw in Oct.2011,

 

3/ Major earthquakes cause deaths and chaos : my own statistical work on earthquakes shows we are at or above a two standard deviation move away from the mean number. Looking at Earthquakes of 7.0-9.9 on the Richter scale, fpr the 30 years from 1980-2010, the Mean was 14 quakes on that scale. In last two years, the stats have jumped to 24 in 2010 and 20 quakes in 2011. That's two standard deviations away from the 30 year Mean.

 

4/ Major volcano erupts, disrupting global travel, and possibly the global economy - the two main candidates ; Katla in Iceland and CUMBRE VIEJA, In the Canary Islands. There's a large mass of land along the Western side of a ring of volcanos on the Canary Island.

 

5/ A flooding of previously unreported gold into the market : 10x the quantity may be outy their. 85% is held "off market" in Asia, awaiting the launch of a new excahnge.

 

6/ Resignation of Obama, or a declaration he will not run for president. Hillary Clinton may run in his place and be beat by the Republican candidate. There is some small chance that would be Ron Paul if the move against Obama comes early enough in 2012. If not, there's an even chance then that Ron Paul would run as a third party candidate with a well-known running mate, such as Jesse Ventura.

 

7/ A European political crisis, disrupting currency and equity markets - when it becomes obvious the can cannot be kicked down the road in Europe. Debt crisis expands, European banks tetter and get taken over. Countries leave the Euro and slide into depression.

 

8/ The bankruptcy of one or more US states and a rift in the Unity of the US - and triggering a possible collapse of the US dollar

 

9/ Disclosure of a alien presence on earth - followed by a collapse in energy prices

 

10/ A shift in earth poles really happens but the world does not end - least likely but the most disruptive. The next phase of the Mayan Calendar begins with a sense of relief, and a concensus that we can no longer abuse the planet and waste its resources, we must act as stewarts of ist riches and all the life forms that live on it/

 

You could add Israel bombing Iran.

 

Anyways, my bet is 2 of these - a stock market collapse and a eurozone crisis as Greece leaves the euro.

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You could add Israel bombing Iran.

 

Anyways, my bet is 2 of these - a stock market collapse and a eurozone crisis as Greece leaves the euro.

Right.

I thought of that afterwards...

The War drums are pounding, and an attack may have a higher probability than some of the ten shocks that I listed

 

But I doubt somehow that they will actually go to war

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Right.

I thought of that afterwards...

The War drums are pounding, and an attack may have a higher probability than some of the ten shocks that I listed

 

In fact, we've been waiting for it for so long you probably couldn't include it on your list of shocks.

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Looking back...

 

(The podcast - FBB-III - seems to die right at the end - did anyone else notice that?)

 

I MENTIONED TWO BIG THEMES for 2011:

 

+ China's slowdown (and softer commodities), thanks to rising rates. I expect this slowdown to push global stock markest lower

 

+ Global debt defaults, starting either in US states (& cities), or in Europe.

 

As a bellwether for California, here's:

 

NAC / Nuveen California Dividend Advantage Municipal Fund (NYSE) .. update

xxxrw.gif

I also mentioned at the end, that we were likely to see many Earth Changes.

That was my first foray into forecasting using "alternative sources"

 

And the Earthquakes, volcanoes, and tornadoes continued:

earthquakes.gif

here's a Table giving a statistical summary:

 

Period==== =Deaths :6.-6.9 :7.-7.9 :8-9.9 ::7.-9.9

Ave:'80-11 030,947 : 129.2 : 13.21 : 0.79 :: 13.99 : Mean, 21 years

STD:'80-11 067,644 : 30.21 : 03.86 : 0.89 :: 04.01 : Standard Dev.

+1 x StDev 098,591 : 159.4 : 17.07 : 1.68 :: 18.00

+2 x StDev 166,235 : 189.6 : 20.92 : 2.58 :: 22.01

=== ===

Year: 2010 320,129 : 150.0 : 22.00 : 1.00 :: 23.00

Yr.:2011E* 025,636 : 198.0 : 21.60 : 1.20 :: 22.80

==

'10update** 320,120 : 149.0 : 23.00 : 1.00 :: 24.00

'11update** 021,401 : 183.0 : 19.00 : 1.00 :: 20.00

 

* annualised as of ten months of 2011

** updated at late Dec.2011 (notice changes in 2010 data)

 

/source: http://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/eqarchives/year/graphs.php

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8/ The bankruptcy of one or more US states and a rift in the Unity of the US

- and triggering a possible collapse of the US dollar

 

(see post just above)

 

Here's an Updated chart for NAC ... update

nac.gif

 

Here's a Chart for DXY - etf for the US Dollar ... update

dxy.gif

 

First, we may see a flood of money into the US Dollar as the Euro falls, and a "dollar short squeeze" arrives. Then, a flow back out, as people realise that the Dollar is overvalued. You may be able to spot the ideal time to buy Gold and Silver, by tracking the US Dollar (DXY).

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If you haven't listened to the podcast yet ( LINK ),

then I recommend you do so- especially section #5 on Gold,

where I identify Gold's support levels.

 

5/ A flooding of previously unreported gold into the market : 10x the quantity may be out the "85% which is held off market" in Asia, awaiting the launch of a new exchange.

Gold dropped through Support at the 252d-MA yesterday, so here are the next levels of support, as mentioned in the FBB podcast:

 

GLD Support Levels= : x 10.31

252d-old- : $152.00 / $152.33 12/15 close

252d-now : $153.03 : $1,578 (252d on Gold: $1,572.23)

Tue--: h:155.55 / L:154.54 / Cl:154.91 // H:$1,609.2 /L:$1,591.10 / Cl.:$1,594.60

Wed-: h:154.26 / L:150.66 / Cl:151.03 // H:$1,595.0 /L:$1,550.90 / Cl.:$1,558.10

========

GLD Support Levels : x 10.31

377d-now : $145.00 : $1,495

610d-now : $131.00 : $1,351

 

A long term Weekly Chart ... update : last-12mos

 

gldwk.gif

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10 SURPRISES for 2012 - as per Matthew Lynn

=======

 

EXCERPTS

 

1. Mario Draghi resigns

 

...The simplest way out of this crisis is for the European Central Bank to start printing money, but the main problem is selling that fix to the Germans. When it comes to the crunch, Draghi will step aside, a German will be installed, and the printing presses will be switched on.

 

2. Britain starts an Olympic revival

 

...the London Olympics will be a huge success. With a devalued currency, falling wages, and a flexible labor force, the U.K. economy will start reinventing itself — and the Olympics will be seen as the point where the economy started to recover.

 

3. Vladimir Putin resigns

 

The Russian leader faces what now looks like a tricky campaign for the presidency in March. He’ll win, but without a convincing majority... Before the end of the year, President Putin will step down on health grounds. Once he’s gone, Russia will liberalize — and investors will move into its cheap stocks.

 

4. The dollar starts a bull run

 

Barack Obama may or may not be a great president, but with the opposition unable to come up with a convincing alternative, he will cruise to a relatively easy re-election...

 

5. France accepts a reduced role in the world

 

This will be a traumatic year for the French. The country will lose its triple-A rating, and sink back into recession...

 

6. Poland steps up to the plate

 

Which country is the strongest player in the European Union? One with strong growth, healthy public finances, low debt, and a sizable population. That would be Poland...

 

7. An investment bank shuts down

 

An estimated 233,000 staff have been laid off in the banking industry in 2011. Every day brings news of yet more redundancies, and it is only going to get worse in the new year ...with so many lavishly paid staff. One of them will close in 2012.

 

8. Europeans start to migrate

 

The traditional response of Europeans to economic trouble is to get up and go somewhere else. The U.S. is exhibit A, Australia is exhibit B.

 

9. Everyone looks to Iceland

 

...Mainstream opinion said the country was finished. Not so. This year, it grew by 2.5%, and it is forecast to grow by 1.5% next year. That is a faster rate than the euro zone. Capital controls are being steadily lifted, and the exchange rate is strengthening again. The lesson is inescapable. You don’t need to bail out your banks after all.

 

10. The Christmas e-card goes out of fashion

 

...Listen up guys. It’s not thoughtful. It’s not touching. It’s spam.

...By Christmas 2012, sending out e-cards will be socially unacceptable — and not too soon.

 

/source: http://www.marketwatch.com/story/10-surprises-for-2012-2011-12-29?link=MW_story_investinginsight

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9. Everyone looks to Iceland

...Mainstream opinion said the country was finished. Not so. This year, it grew by 2.5%, and it is forecast to grow by 1.5% next year. That is a faster rate than the euro zone. Capital controls are being steadily lifted, and the exchange rate is strengthening again. The lesson is inescapable. You don’t need to bail out your banks after all.

THIS is the most interesting one !

 

Perhaps people will learn this in time: Stop saving the banks, and save the average citizen instead.

 

As this realisation spreads, perhaps it will help people to realise the merits of getting rid of Central Banks too.

 

Ron Paul was a worth pioneer in talking about the evils of the Fed. Will he benefit as people understand his wisdom better?

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A Mo·men·tous Year ?

- Could be the most important year in the lifetime of Most of Us

====================

 

TEN SHOCKS that could transform the world in 2012 - we should get at least one, and may get 2-3 or even more of these

 

1/ A stock market collapse- the year ended in "2" is the most dangerous. Food prices have been rising, and energy prices are well off their low. Perhaps only a stock market crash will save us from a renewed rise in oil and food. I think there's a good chance we may get one. My best guess is that the market would bottom around Q3, with a sharp drop into the summer.

 

2/ The whip of the dragon's tail - in the year of the dragon.

(previous: 2012, 2000, 1988, 1976, 1964, 1952, 1940, 1928, 1916, 1904)

Water Dragon year:

A symbol of good fortune and sign of intense power, the Oriental Dragon is regarded as a divine beast - the reverse of the malicious monster that Westerners felt necessary to find and slay. In Eastern philosophy, the Dragon is said to be a deliverer of good fortune and a master of authority.

Many babies born in 2012

Having said this I expect deeper falls in the Chinese stock market in the first half of the year: the low we saw in Oct.2011,

 

3/ Major earthquakes cause deaths and chaos : my own statistical work on earthquakes shows we are at or above a two standard deviation move away from the mean number. Looking at Earthquakes of 7.0-9.9 on the Richter scale, fpr the 30 years from 1980-2010, the Mean was 14 quakes on that scale. In last two years, the stats have jumped to 24 in 2010 and 20 quakes in 2011. That's two standard deviations away from the 30 year Mean.

 

4/ Major volcano erupts, disrupting global travel, and possibly the global economy - the two main candidates ; Katla in Iceland and CUMBRE VIEJA, In the Canary Islands. There's a large mass of land along the Western side of a ring of volcanos on the Canary Island.

 

5/ A flooding of previously unreported gold into the market : 10x the quantity may be out the "85% which is held off market" in Asia, awaiting the launch of a new excahnge.

 

6/ Resignation of Obama, or a declaration he will not run for president. Hillary Clinton may run in his place and be beat by the Republican candidate. There is some small chance that would be Ron Paul if the move against Obama comes early enough in 2012. If not, there's an even chance then that Ron Paul would run as a third party candidate with a well-known running mate, such as Jesse Ventura.

 

7/ A European political crisis, disrupting currency and equity markets - when it becomes obvious the can cannot be kicked down the road in Europe. Debt crisis expands, European banks tetter and get taken over. Countries leave the Euro and slide into depression.

 

8/ The bankruptcy of one or more US states and a rift in the Unity of the US - and triggering a possible collapse of the US dollar

 

... the next may seem like a longshot - please watch the film, Thrive

 

9/ Disclosure of a alien presence on earth - followed by a collapse in energy prices

 

10/ A shift in earth poles really happens but the world does not end - least likely but the most disruptive. The next phase of the Mayan Calendar begins with a sense of relief, and a concensus that we can no longer abuse the planet and waste its resources, we must act as stewarts of ist riches and all the life forms that live on it/

 

=== ===

 

It takes a bit of courage to list some of these shocks in a public predictions podcast - Let's see how people react.

 

 

" It takes a bit of courage to list some of these shocks in a public predictions podcast - Let's see how people react."

 

 

It does without doubt take courage to list some of those, It also shows someone who is able to accept anything is possible at any given time! ;)

 

Most sheeple go through life with fixed views and blinkers on!

 

I like the way you have a view of things are more fluid than solid! B)

 

Whilst we don't always agree on how things should or shouldn't be, it is very important to be able to view value and consider other peoples opinions

 

with an open mind.

 

All THE BEST FOR THE NEW YEAR DB.

 

Regards

 

ML.

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1/ A stock market collapse- the year ended in "2" is the most dangerous. Food prices have been rising, and energy prices are well off their low. Perhaps only a stock market crash will save us from a renewed rise in oil and food. I think there's a good chance we may get one. My best guess is that the market would bottom around Q3, with a sharp drop into the summer.

Critial loss of faith in a system trumps the end digit of a year every time.

2/ The whip of the dragon's tail - in the year of the dragon.

(previous: 2012, 2000, 1988, 1976, 1964, 1952, 1940, 1928, 1916, 1904)

Water Dragon year:

A symbol of good fortune and sign of intense power, the Oriental Dragon is regarded as a divine beast - the reverse of the malicious monster that Westerners felt necessary to find and slay. In Eastern philosophy, the Dragon is said to be a deliverer of good fortune and a master of authority.

Many babies born in 2012

Having said this I expect deeper falls in the Chinese stock market in the first half of the year: the low we saw in Oct.2011

China has some issues but the real story of the year will be Japan economy. RIP Yen. More babies get sick in China than ever before. There is Youtube footage of someone deliberately poisioning them. Later it is disclosed that he believed he was performing a patriotic duty. More wealthy Chinese are discovered having multiple children. Massive land disruption particularly with water (both excess and lack) will be evident all through the year of 2012 all over China. Water will become more costly than food.

 

6/ Resignation of Obama, or a declaration he will not run for president

I predict the assassination/attempted assassination of Obama before the end of 2012. Why? Because someone in a land of over 300 million people has got to go over the edge and eventually there will be a guy with the skills or just dumb luck to take down the President. Discontent in the US will grow to the point where the attempted killing of the President is an inside job. I see Airforce One having some kind tampering done. Michelle Obama is physically attacked. Ron Paul doesn't make President, it's another Republican

7/ A European political crisis, disrupting currency and equity markets - when it becomes obvious the can cannot be kicked down the road in Europe. Debt crisis expands, European banks tetter and get taken over. Countries leave the Euro and slide into depression.

The road magically grows ever longer. The main mechanism for this is outright denial. There is a split of the European Union between two factions, North EU and South EU before the end of 2012 the foundation for this split will be evident but the actually spilt will occur in 2013.

 

8/ The bankruptcy of one or more US states and a rift in the Unity of the US - and triggering a possible collapse of the US dollar

The dollar doesn't collapse in 2012. Unfortuately. One positive of this is that more people in the US start prepping in ernest. Because of the economic situation there is an increase in networking with neighbours where in the past there was none. People start searching for the spiritual relm in an effort to comfort themselves in times of distress. Through each other they find their peace, even if only for a moment. The Mormon Church finds that there is a real demand for the teaching of food preservation techniques and begin assisting an increasing number of people outside the Church. Numbers in the Church swell if for no other reason to gain a community full of supportive people, a liferaft of spirit and goodwill for the times ahead.

9/ Disclosure of a alien presence on earth - followed by a collapse in energy prices

Yep. We have been extensively prepped for this throughout 2011. It is going to start with something very small (non threatening, larger than a microbe, smaller than a dog). Energy prices don't collapse but new energy technologies become available that aren't here now. One of these comes from a High School student(s) who makes a discovery during a science project. Something to do with wands that look like small fiber optic cables.

 

10/ A shift in earth poles really happens but the world does not end - least likely but the most disruptive. The next phase of the Mayan Calendar begins with a sense of relief, and a concensus that we can no longer abuse the planet and waste its resources, we must act as stewarts of ist riches and all the life forms that live on it

This has already happened. The shift will continue and over the next few years we will have to suffer from massive crop failure due to unseasonal weather (high prices...*sigh*). We humans learn to adapt and the creation of indoor farms increases as "food security" becomes a media buzzword. When the poles resettle cold areas will be tropical and the reverse will be true too. This will take a decade or so...depending on the rate of violation our earth has inflicted upon her

Other stuff:

* Two frogs (neither of which is Kermit) become famous in 2012. One is a viral social hit, the other is related to medicine.

* Nationwide drought in Australia with record temperatures that continues into July/August (southern hemisphere so this time of year is winter)

* More major earthquakes in NZ, this time towards the top of the South Island. NZ can expect more earthquakes, period.

* There is increasing acknowledgement that food is a drug complete with addictive qualities or conversely healing qualities depending on the food.

* Loyalty points are demonstrated to have the power to weild global control of the masses. The masses glance up at the news, find it mildly interesting they are being controled and go back to shopping/eating/wearing the "right" things (what is right is dictated by points) or playing games for the all important points.

* Coastlines become increasling unsafe to live in, wherever you are in the world. Thailand tsunami. Many deaths.

* Australia, Northern Territory gets hit massive Cyclone, Darwin particularly bad. Melbourne flooded again like in 2011.

* Doctor (location unknown) draws widespread western media attention for his promotion and use of urine therapy in healing cancer patients.

* The raids by authorities on organic farms, raw milk producers continue in the US and begin in ernest throughout parts of Europe.

* Large pedophile ring is busted which is centred around a small town. In a strange twist some of the pedophiles are still kids (older ones) themselves and the abuse occurred in such a manipulative manner that it makes charges difficult to lay. Much pain and discontent with the legal system ensues.

* Many changes with regard to the rights of women throughout the world. This is a trend for the next decade. The voting rights for Saudi women are just the beginning...

* There is a virus amongst Pandas that kills some of them.

* Hugh Heffner is hospitialised. He dies in 2013 (I predicted he would die in 2011. Must have eaten something that disrupted my energy field that day so now I predict this again. I see smoke....not fire and a heart issue. I also see a motorbike, but curiously no house Bunnies.

 

I look forward to returning to this thread as it all comes true.

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Critial loss of faith in a system trumps the end digit of a year every time.

 

China has some issues but the real story of the year will be Japan economy. RIP Yen. More babies get sick in China than ever before. There is Youtube footage of someone deliberately poisioning them. Later it is disclosed that he believed he was performing a patriotic duty. More wealthy Chinese are discovered having multiple children. Massive land disruption particularly with water (both excess and lack) will be evident all through the year of 2012 all over China. Water will become more costly than food.

 

I predict the assassination/attempted assassination of Obama before the end of 2012. Why? Because someone in a land of over 300 million people has got to go over the edge and eventually there will be a guy with the skills or just dumb luck to take down the President.

. . .

Interesting, TB.

 

Those are bravely specific forecasts, and it will indeed be interesting to see how many you get right. What is your forecasting technique - do you a future newspaper, or something?

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" It takes a bit of courage..."

It does without doubt take courage to list some of those, It also shows someone who is able to accept anything is possible at any given time! ;)

 

Most sheeple go through life with fixed views and blinkers on!

I like the way you have a view of things are more fluid than solid! B)

. . .

Thanks for all the kind comments.

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A Falklands event.

 

http://www.thetrumpet.com/?q=8977.7744.0.0

 

crisis is brewing in the South Atlantic—a crisis that friendless, powerless Britain is ill equipped to survive.On December 10, a Chinese diplomat visiting Buenos Aires ratified support for Argentina’s sovereignty claim over the Falkland Islands. Less than two weeks later, Argentina successfully petitioned its neighbors in the trading bloc Mercosur (which includes Brazil, Argentina, Paraguay and Uruguay) to show their support of Argentina’s claim on the islands byclosing their ports to any and all ships flying the Falklands’ flag.

 

Both developments, two among many, reveal the growing support Argentina has in its claim on the Falklands.

 

As China and Latin America throw their weight behind Argentina, Britain is losing friends willing to support its sovereignty in the Falklands. Most notably, U.S. President Barack Obama has refused to back Britain’s right to the Falkland Islands and has instead supported Argentina’s calls for negotiation at the United Nations. After what happened earlier this month in Brussels, it’s unlikely Europe would take up Britain’s cause—let alone give it political or military support—should a crisis break out in the South Atlantic.

 

 

Britain, it seems, is on its own to defend the Falkland archipelago.

 

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As great as it would be to see Ron Paul as president which is not likely, I think it would not be too long before he got assassinated. Too many powerful people would have too much to lose, particular defence contractors.

 

Liked your interview DrBubb, always good to keep an open mind

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A Falklands event.

 

Hmm, that is very interesting. I certainly don't think any invasion is likely, the four Eurofighter Typhoons on their own could probably defend against the Argentine air force, at least for a day or two but that kind of article really does bring home how weak and isolated Britain now is. I was having a look at the Royal Navy ships and they don't have a single aircraft carrier now, the last one being converted to a helicopter carrier with the retirement of the Harrier and won't have a new one until 2020, an arrival date that I am somewhat sceptical about. Even if it was to be built, were there not rumours that they couldn't afford to actually put planes on it?

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...Dominic mentioned this forecaster in the podcast...

 

New Thunder Road Report denounces market intervention

 

By cpowell // December 19, 2011

 

Market analyst Paul Mylchreest's latest Thunder Road Report, published today, elaborating on and denouncing the socialism and fascism destroying Western economies with market intervention, quotes GATA sources at length.

. . .

Mylchreest concludes by trying to identify investable assets somewhat beyond the reach of market intervention, much as the British economist Peter Warburton sought to identify such assets in his groundbreaking 2001 essay about market intervention, "The Debasement of World Currency: It Is Inflation but Not as We Know It":

 

http://www.gata.org/node/8303 [1]

 

Mylchreest's new report is more or less titled "I'll Be in Galt's Gulch When Atlas Shrugs" and it is posted at GATA's Internet site here:

 

http://www.gata.org/files/ThunderRoadReport-12-19-2011.pdf [2]

 

CHRIS POWELL, Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.

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...Dominic mentioned this forecaster in the podcast...

New Thunder Road Report denounces market intervention, cites GATA

I found a report which gives some revised estimates...

 

How Much Gold Stock is There Really?

 

Posted by Philip Barton on Oct 21, 2011

 

The current estimate for the amount of gold stock in the world is in the region of 170,000 tonnes. As the very first step, it needs to be acknowledged that an estimate is all that is available. Running a worldwide survey on how much gold people own is rather pointless. Even in good times, people are noticeably reluctant to discuss their true wealth. In troubled times, such as now, that becomes an unwillingness to even be interviewed. Nevertheless, it also needs to be emphatically stated that 170,000 tonnes is far too low an estimate and that it is time for a revision. Every single media outlet repeats this same figure, or similar, as though it is gospel.

 

Included in this 170,000 tonnes is the 10,000 tonnes estimated as being the total amount of gold mined in the history of the world prior to the Californian gold rush of 1848. This was simply a guess.

 

‘David Guyatt, in his article “The Spoils of War”, commented that prior to the Californian Gold Rush of 1848 the amount of gold believed to be in existence was about 10,000 tonnes, i.e. it was “the sum total of gold mined throughout the world during the preceding 5,850 years, for which mining records exist.” In correspondence with the World Gold Council in 1998, Guyatt says that the WGC admitted that this figure was just an “industry estimate”, although as he says: “Nevertheless, this estimate has been incorporated into current day official mining figures and punched out as actual fact.”’

 

The Thunder Road Report

The “industry estimate” of the amount of gold mined in that 5,850 years works out to be 1.7 tonnes a year. The assumption that underpins the idea that not much gold was mined prior to the Californian gold rush is essentially, that if it takes modern methods a whole year to extract 2,400 tonnes then it would take far, far longer for more primitive cultures to extract the same amount of gold.

 

The huge, gaping flaw in the modern versus primitive technology theory is that it assumes that all else was equal. It unequivocally was not. The further back into history we travel, the more accessible and plentiful gold was, just as it will be far less plentiful in the future than it is now. Our ancestors mined all the easy to access gold in the world. The Mesoamericans pulled chunks of it out of rivers with their hands it was so plentiful. Today we are mining the residual leftovers – the sparse remnants of what was once plentiful.

. . .

Somewhere between 1,200,000 tonnes and 2,500,000 tonnes would seem to be a reasonable and conservative estimate. Obviously it could go way beyond 2,500,000 tonnes. What is beyond doubt is that 170,000 tonnes barely represents the tip of the iceberg of the world’s gold stock. Let us be rid of this figure once and for all. It is a folly to keep repeating an obvious error as though it were fact.

 

/source: http://www.goldstandardinstitute.net/2011/10/how-much-gold-stock-is-there-really/

 

“Gold is so plentiful that no one who did not see it could believe it”.

Marco Polo reporting on gold in Lokak (Siam or Malaya)

“in great abundance because it is found there in measureless quantities”… “so much indeed that the ruler of the island has a very large palace entirely roofed with fine gold, just as we roof our churches with lead”

Marco Polo reporting on gold in Japan

“Gold dust is found in the rivers, and gold in bigger nuggets in the lakes and mountains”.

Marco Polo reporting on gold at Karajang (Chinese province of Yunnan which is still a gold mining area today)

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If you haven't listened to the podcast yet ( LINK ),

then I recommend you do so- especially section #5 on Gold, where I identify Gold's support levels.

 

Gold dropped through Support at the 252d-MA yesterday, so here are the next levels of support, as mentioned in the FBB podcast:

 

GLD Support Levels= : x 10.31

252d-now : $153.03 : $1,578 (252d on Gold: $1,572.23)

GLD Support Levels : x 10.31

377d-now : $145.00 : $1,495

610d-now : $131.00 : $1,351

 

A long term Weekly Chart ... update : last-12mos

 

gldwk.gif

GOLD's FALSE BREAK?

 

GLD / Gold is now back UP ... to the 252d-MA (at $1572 per ounce)

 

Threatening (or maybe promising) to turn the whole move down into a False Break.

 

I now suspect that some stops were hit causing that break,

and maybe it was due to the Gold & Silver holdings of MFG customers being sold off*

=== ===

 

mf-global-shadows.jpg

 

*Trustee to Seize and Liquidate Even the Stored Customer Gold and Silver Bullion From MF Global

 

The trustee overseeing the liquidation of the failed brokerage has proposed dumping all remaining customer assets—gold, silver, cash, options, futures and commodities—into a single pool that would pay customers only 72% of the value of their holdings. In other words,while traders already may have paid the full price for delivery of specific bars of gold or silver—and hold "warehouse receipts" to prove it—they'll have to forfeit 28% of the value.

 

That has investors fuming. "Warehouse receipts, like gold bars, are our property, 100%," contends John Roe, a partner in BTR Trading, a Chicago futures-trading firm. He personally lost several hundred thousand dollars in investments via MF Global; his clients lost even more. "We are a unique class, and instead, the trustee is doing a radical redistribution of property," he says.

 

/more: http://www.endoftheworldasyouknowit.com/showthread.php?16177-Trustee-to-Seize-and-Liquidate-Even-the-Stored-Customer-Gold-Silver-Bullion-From-MFG&p=19013

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For the record here:

In case anyone follows Tom Hougaard. This from the 28th Dec.

" I expect the Dow to be trading lower than 5000 by end of 2013, or it will have traded below 5000 by the end of 2013."

http://www.whichwaytoday.com/analysis28december2011.htm

That is more Bearish than my own forecast of SPX-850 in mid-July 2012 (ideal target)

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IF THIS WERE YOUR LAST DAY ALIVE WHAT WOULD YOU DO?

Final blog of SNL writer reveals desire for 9/11 Truth and predictions

 

Former SNL writer Joe Badolai discusses 9/11 Truth and the JFK assassination in his suicide letter.

 

I doubt there is any mention of his letter in mainstream media.

Huffington post ignores any mention of the following on Mr. Bodolai's blog: At least they linked to it....

 

uyk2e.jpg

 

Things I Think Will Happen Next Year

 

Sales of Mayan Calendars up for 2012, drop for 2013.

Martial Law in the USA, first probably in Louisiana

Depression greater than that of the 30’S

More wars for Israel, our rulers. Probably Syria soon.

War with Iran (!) for Israel may trigger WW3 conflict with Russia

World Supply of Band Names will run out

Americans will go along with this, but resisters will be FEMA camped.

America the one I loved, the one my dad fought for on Omaha Beach on D-DAY, the man who helped take out the machine guns on the cliff, won’t be alive to see young men wearing uniforms and BE the enemy he fought.

Fascism will be America. It already is. Simple definition: When government rules over corporations, that’s socialism. When corporations use government that, my friends, is fascism.

Foreign troops may likely be used in popular insurrections.

Snooki will have another “book”.

 

 

Stuff I Would Like to Have Seen In My Life

 

Truth about 9-11. THREE buildings went down that day. Building 7 wasn’t even hit.

Indians winning a World Series (OK, not so bad since my Jays won two in a row!)

Browns winning a Super Bowl

Truth about the JFK murder

Young people mobilizing for change instead of watching E!

USA not being Israel’s puppet bully.

An American awards show being half as good as mine. Or, basically, getting a chance here. I can run a show. I can create a show.

All those new girls I like naked liking me as much as I liked them

Living in Paris or New York again

====

http://qualityshows.wordpress.com/

 

Rest in Peace, Mr Badolai

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